CN108388715A - A kind of determination method of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale - Google Patents
A kind of determination method of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale Download PDFInfo
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- CN108388715A CN108388715A CN201810126151.XA CN201810126151A CN108388715A CN 108388715 A CN108388715 A CN 108388715A CN 201810126151 A CN201810126151 A CN 201810126151A CN 108388715 A CN108388715 A CN 108388715A
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of determination methods of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale, including：（1）The achievement data needed in the acquisition mathematical model modeling of dynamic monitoring subsystem carries out typing, the update operation of data；（2）The ecological safety that safety evaluation subsystem treats evaluation region carries out ecological security assessment；（3）Alert prediction subsystem is treated evaluation region progress Ecological Alarm and is commented；（4）Ecological Alarm grade determines that system carries out the determination of Ecological Alarm grade；（5）Decision-making management subsystem treats the ecological safety grading of evaluation region and indices data are summarized, and decision, planning are provided in conjunction with the socio-economic development situation in region to be evaluated.The present invention supplements the visualization application of ecological security assessment, is predicted according to rational analysis, rational exploitation and utilization wetland resource, better swamp protection ecosystem function.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to security technology area, the determination side of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under specifically a kind of Watershed Scale
Method.
Background technology
Ecological safety is the new research field that twentieth century end occurs in the world, and the mankind protect ecological environment at present
The consciousness of shield increasingly enhances, and doubles to the degree of concern of ecological safety, ecological safety is included in a national security in the world
The important component of system, with military security, political security, economic security, science and technology safety, in national security system
It occupies an important position；Ecological security assessment is as a country progress macro-plan, the important basis of government decision；
Ecological security assessment is also the focus of the subjects such as sustainable development, geography, ecology and resource and environmental science, and ecological
Safety evaluation is basis and the core of ecological safety research；Zonal ecological security assessment is that a country progress is macro
See planning, government decision important evidence, with Re-search on Urbanization and industrialized development, the guarantor of China's ecological environment security
More serious threat and challenge will be faced by holding and safeguarding, research mankind's activity is imperative to the effect of ecological security.Mesh
Before, as country controls and administers to effective resistance of upstream contaminant, influence of the water pollution to estuarine wetland is alleviated, river mouth
Wetland Environment has a degree of improvement, but still faces many more serious ecological environment problems.
Invention content
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of determination methods of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale, to solve
The problems mentioned above in the background art.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions：
A kind of determination method of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale, including：
（1）Using region to be evaluated as object, the achievement data needed in acquisition mathematical model modeling carries out dynamic monitoring subsystem
Typing, the update operation of data；
（2）Safety evaluation subsystem, according to the method for AHP-PSR mathematical modelings, is counted according to the dynamic monitoring system newer data of institute
The ecological security assessment index in region to be evaluated is calculated, and according to evaluation number, each index grading section is established, to area to be evaluated
The ecological safety in domain carries out ecological security assessment；
（3）Alert prediction subsystem it is calculated according to fuzzy matter-element model as a result, treat evaluation region carry out ecological safety it is pre-
Police comments；
（4）Ecological Alarm grade determines system, according to P-S-R model, determines pre-alarming system index factor,
The pre-alarming system index factor includes；The pressure index factor, the state index factor and the response index factor；Pass through Grey Sequence
Prediction model obtains the prediction numerical value of the pressure index factor；By Clue-S models, required time Prediction of land use mould is obtained
Quasi- figure, and combine landscape indices software for calculation FRAGSTATS, determine state index factor prediction numerical value and response index because
Son prediction numerical value；And Clue-S modeling precision is evaluated by Kappa index methods；Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), pass through structure
Judgment matrix is made, determines the weight of each pre-alarming system index factor；By logistic Growth Curve Model, each early warning body is determined
It is the integrating index of index factor；According to the prediction numerical value of the pressure index factor, state index factor prediction numerical value, response
Index factor predicts the integrating index of the weight and each pre-alarming system index factor of numerical value, each pre-alarming system index factor,
By comprehensive evaluation, Wetland Ecology Safety value is determined；According to the Wetland Ecology Safety value, Ecological Alarm etc. is determined
Grade；
（5）Decision-making management subsystem is forecast according to safe early warning grade, dynamic monitoring subsystem, safety evaluation subsystem and alert
Data that subsystem is obtained and as a result, treat the ecological safety grading of evaluation region and indices data are summarized are right
Existing achievement in research is referred to and is extended, and decision, Intention of Plan are provided in conjunction with the socio-economic development situation in region to be evaluated
See.
As a further solution of the present invention：The ecological safety of evaluation region is treated according to " very dangerous, dangerous, peace
Entirely, safer, very safe " carry out ecological security assessment.
As a further solution of the present invention：The pressure index factor includes：The density of population, GDP density and third production
Industry value added density；The state index factor includes：Patch number, mean patch area, boundary density, diversity indices,
Evenness index and dominance index；The response index factor includes：Fragmentation index and concentration class index.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：
The present invention supplements the visualization application of ecological security assessment, is predicted according to rational analysis, rational exploitation and utilization wetland
Resource, better swamp protection ecosystem function；Can to the following ecological security situation in suitable application region into
Row prediction, and quantify to grade, according to the collectable property of data.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the determination method of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale.
Specific implementation mode
The technical solution of this patent is described in more detail With reference to embodiment.
Referring to Fig. 1, under a kind of Watershed Scale aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit determination method, AHP Decision Methods are by thing
The every attribute or index of part or things, via manual decision or experience by the indices of appraisement system according to orderly layer
It is secondary to be classified, relevant classify by similar attribute or according to for evaluation achievement is positive and negative.In each classification, point
Subjectivity does not give weights, and the analysis method of final evaluation of estimate is finally calculated in top layer.AHP Analytical hierarchy process will have multiple
The problem of complicated factor is codetermined, participated in is simplified according to the thinking of modular classification, to the excellent of decision scheme
The bad evaluation quantified, and give intuitive comparison by number.PSR structural models refer to drawing entire index system
It is divided into " pressure, state, response " three aspects.The model is used for economics research earliest, for assessing the utilization of resources and can hold
In the research of supervention exhibition etc., measurement geography research also uses the scale-model investigation ecological environment.
Dynamic monitoring subsystem is using region to be evaluated as object, the achievement data needed in acquisition mathematical model modeling, into
Typing, the update operation of row data；During selecting index, it should be noted that the phase of achievement data, newer frequency, list
While the factors such as position, the correlation of indices is the smaller the better.
Safety evaluation subsystem according to dynamic monitoring system newer data according to AHP-PSR mathematical modelings method,
The ecological security assessment index in region to be evaluated is calculated, and according to evaluation number, each index grading section is established, to be evaluated
The ecological safety in region carries out ecological security assessment；The ecological safety of evaluation region is treated according to " very dangerous, dangerous, peace
Entirely, safer, very safe " carry out ecological security assessment.
Alert prediction subsystem it is calculated according to fuzzy matter-element model as a result, treat evaluation region carry out ecological safety it is pre-
Police comments；
Ecological Alarm grade determines system, according to P-S-R model, determines pre-alarming system index factor, described
Pre-alarming system index factor includes；The pressure index factor, the state index factor and the response index factor；Wherein, the pressure refers to
Marking the factor includes：The density of population, GDP density and value-added of the tertiary industry density；The state index factor includes：Patch number,
Mean patch area, boundary density, diversity indices, evenness index and dominance index；The response index factor includes：
Fragmentation index and concentration class index；By Grey Series Forecasting Model, the prediction numerical value of the pressure index factor is obtained；Pass through
Clue-S models obtain required time Prediction of land use simulation drawing, and combine landscape indices software for calculation
FRAGSTATS determines state index factor prediction numerical value and response index factor prediction numerical value；And pass through the index sides Kappa
Method evaluates Clue-S modeling precision；Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), by Judgement Matricies, determine each pre-alarming system index because
The weight of son；By logistic Growth Curve Model, the integrating index of each pre-alarming system index factor is determined；According to pressure
The prediction numerical value of power index factor, state index factor prediction numerical value, response index factor prediction numerical value, each pre-alarming system index
The integrating index of the weight of the factor and each pre-alarming system index factor determines Wetland Ecology Safety by comprehensive evaluation
Value；According to the Wetland Ecology Safety value, Ecological Alarm grade is determined.
Decision-making management subsystem is pre- according to safe early warning grade, dynamic monitoring subsystem, safety evaluation subsystem and alert
Data that man who brings news of appointment's system is obtained and as a result, treat the ecological safety grading of evaluation region and indices data are summarized,
Existing achievement in research is referred to and extended, decision, planning are provided in conjunction with the socio-economic development situation in region to be evaluated
Opinion.
The better embodiment of this patent is explained in detail above, but this patent is not limited to above-mentioned embodiment party
Formula, one skilled in the relevant art within the scope of knowledge, can also be under the premise of not departing from this patent objective
Various changes can be made.
Claims (3)
1. a kind of determination method of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale, which is characterized in that including：
（1）Using region to be evaluated as object, the achievement data needed in acquisition mathematical model modeling carries out dynamic monitoring subsystem
Typing, the update operation of data；
（2）Safety evaluation subsystem, according to the method for AHP-PSR mathematical modelings, is counted according to the dynamic monitoring system newer data of institute
The ecological security assessment index in region to be evaluated is calculated, and according to evaluation number, each index grading section is established, to area to be evaluated
The ecological safety in domain carries out ecological security assessment；
（3）Alert prediction subsystem it is calculated according to fuzzy matter-element model as a result, treat evaluation region carry out ecological safety it is pre-
Police comments；
（4）Ecological Alarm grade determines system, according to P-S-R model, determines pre-alarming system index factor,
The pre-alarming system index factor includes；The pressure index factor, the state index factor and the response index factor；Pass through Grey Sequence
Prediction model obtains the prediction numerical value of the pressure index factor；By Clue-S models, required time Prediction of land use mould is obtained
Quasi- figure, and combine landscape indices software for calculation FRAGSTATS, determine state index factor prediction numerical value and response index because
Son prediction numerical value；And Clue-S modeling precision is evaluated by Kappa index methods；Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), pass through structure
Judgment matrix is made, determines the weight of each pre-alarming system index factor；By logistic Growth Curve Model, each early warning body is determined
It is the integrating index of index factor；According to the prediction numerical value of the pressure index factor, state index factor prediction numerical value, response
Index factor predicts the integrating index of the weight and each pre-alarming system index factor of numerical value, each pre-alarming system index factor,
By comprehensive evaluation, Wetland Ecology Safety value is determined；According to the Wetland Ecology Safety value, Ecological Alarm etc. is determined
Grade；
（5）Decision-making management subsystem is forecast according to safe early warning grade, dynamic monitoring subsystem, safety evaluation subsystem and alert
Data that subsystem is obtained and as a result, treat the ecological safety grading of evaluation region and indices data are summarized are right
Existing achievement in research is referred to and is extended, and decision, Intention of Plan are provided in conjunction with the socio-economic development situation in region to be evaluated
See.
2. the determination method of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale according to claim 1, which is characterized in that right
The ecological safety in region to be evaluated is commented according to " very dangerous, dangerous, safe, safer, very safe " progress ecological safety
Valence.
3. the determination method of aquatic eco-factor exposure threshold limit under Watershed Scale according to claim 1, which is characterized in that institute
Stating the pressure index factor includes：The density of population, GDP density and value-added of the tertiary industry density；The state index factor includes：
Patch number, mean patch area, boundary density, diversity indices, evenness index and dominance index；The response index because
Attached bag includes：Fragmentation index and concentration class index.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109447363A (en) * | 2018-11-08 | 2019-03-08 | 青海大学 | Grassland ecology method for early warning and device |
| CN109858692A (en) * | 2019-01-25 | 2019-06-07 | 广西财经学院 | A kind of Land ecological warning grade assessment method |
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| WO2009113967A1 (en) * | 2008-03-11 | 2009-09-17 | Stanislav Jurjec | Traffic control system for reducing pollution and enhancing traffic safety |
| CN102750589A (en) * | 2012-06-30 | 2012-10-24 | 北京师范大学 | Water environment and water ecology safety guarantee management system |
| CN105956390A (en) * | 2016-04-27 | 2016-09-21 | 重庆交通大学 | Ecological safety early-warning and evaluating visualization system and method |
| CN107480889A (en) * | 2017-07-10 | 2017-12-15 | 辽宁省环境科学研究院 | A kind of Wetland Ecology Safety warning grade assessment method |
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2018
- 2018-02-08 CN CN201810126151.XA patent/CN108388715A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO2009113967A1 (en) * | 2008-03-11 | 2009-09-17 | Stanislav Jurjec | Traffic control system for reducing pollution and enhancing traffic safety |
| CN102750589A (en) * | 2012-06-30 | 2012-10-24 | 北京师范大学 | Water environment and water ecology safety guarantee management system |
| CN105956390A (en) * | 2016-04-27 | 2016-09-21 | 重庆交通大学 | Ecological safety early-warning and evaluating visualization system and method |
| CN107480889A (en) * | 2017-07-10 | 2017-12-15 | 辽宁省环境科学研究院 | A kind of Wetland Ecology Safety warning grade assessment method |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109447363A (en) * | 2018-11-08 | 2019-03-08 | 青海大学 | Grassland ecology method for early warning and device |
| CN109858692A (en) * | 2019-01-25 | 2019-06-07 | 广西财经学院 | A kind of Land ecological warning grade assessment method |
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Application publication date: 20180810 |