CN105095997B - Sudden Water Pollution Accident Early-warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) - Google Patents
Sudden Water Pollution Accident Early-warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses the Sudden Water Pollution Accident Early-warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), S1, the pollutant simulation based on monte carlo method；Based on analysis of uncertainty, uncertain water quality model is constructed, according to water quality, the hydrology, meteorological data, the time and space changing rule of pollutant diffusion is calculated using monte carlo method simulation；S2, contamination accident probability of happening calculate；The condition occurred by defining downstream contamination accident obtains the probability density function of contaminant peak concentrations and pollutant exceeded duration in conjunction with pollutant diffusion result, further obtains the probability of downstream contamination accident generation；S3, contamination accident influence to calculate；With reference to the state that pollutant is spread, binding hierarchy analytic approach assesses pop-up threat, and health, economy, society and the water system that obtaining contamination accident may cause influence；S4, the risk class based on risk Metrics determine, obtain the risk of early-warning point using risk matrix method synthesis.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to pollutant simulation fields, specifically propose a kind of sudden based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Water pollution accident method for early warning.
Background technique
Water is an important component of Source of life and natural environment.Water resource is that social development is indispensable
Important natural resources, however, increased with economical fast development and mankind's activity, water pollution accident is frequently sent out
It is raw, the drinking water safety of resident is caused and is seriously affected, so as to cause a series of economy and society problem.How
Effectively ensure drinking water safety problem, is to guarantee the basis of national stability development, and ensure people's fundamental interests
Basic demand.
In all kinds of water pollution accidents, river pop-up threat is the accident of a kind of high-incidence, high harm, gives drinking water safety
It causes great harm.This kind of river pop-up threat all has following characteristics：(1) accident be suddenly, can not
Prediction；(2) after accident occurs, due to the change of hydrometeorological condition, the complexity of river environment, the diffusion of pollutant has
Very strong uncertainty；(3) this kind of accident can all cause severe social influence.In order to guarantee drinking water safety, in pollutant
Before diffusion causes bigger influence, the effective prediction and warning of pollutant diffusion progress can be taken for relevant department necessary pre-
Anti- measure provides decision support, and therefore, establishing effective prediction and warning model becomes extremely urgent.
Stochastic modeling is mainly to establish mathematics according to the change procedure of pollutant physics, chemistry, biology in water
The quantitative calculating pollutant of model measures the feelings of (calibration) and related data abundance in model parameter in the diffusion tendency of water body
Available more accurate prediction result under condition.However, water environment is a complicated system, cumbersome mathematical modeling is answered
Miscellaneous parameter calibration and a large amount of numerical value calculate the time restriction development of Stochastic modeling.
Compared to Stochastic modeling, uncertain water quality model is generally when establishing a uncertain water quality model
Mainly there are following several stages.(1) planning of model；(2) input data prepares；(3) model modelling approach determines；(4) model
Parameter calibration；(5) it simulates and assesses.Uncertainty is present in entire modeling process, can carry out for each link not true
Qualitative analysis.
Uncertain water quality model can be divided into two major classes, and one kind is the black box water quality model based on data, and model is built
Be based on a large amount of water quality hydrographic data, and model focuses on influence of the different inputs to result, and reduction is for pollutant in water body
In specific physics and biochemical process.It the advantage is that model structure is simple, operation is easy, and application in engineering is also more
Extensively.And another kind of uncertain water quality model is mainly to combination random theory and Stochastic modeling, by using not
Determining variable inputs to obtain the probability distribution of output result, to realize the simulation spread for pollutant.
Summary of the invention
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of based on the dirt of the sudden water of Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Accidents early warning method is contaminated, it is main that research pollutant concentration is determined that value is transferred to research pollutant and surpasses using uncertain method
The probability for crossing threshold value provides effective warning information in combination with methods of risk assessment, provides the more intuitive pollutant state of affairs
Development trend.
A kind of Sudden Water Pollution Accident Early-warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the method for early warning combine
It is comprehensive that simulation of water quality and risk assessment two modules, the probability occurred from contamination accident and accident bring influence two dimensions
The risk class for providing contamination accident is closed, a four step method for prewarning risk based on uncertain method are given；
S1, the pollutant simulation based on monte carlo method；
Based on analysis of uncertainty, uncertain water quality model is constructed, it is special using covering according to water quality, the hydrology, meteorological data
The time and space changing rule of pollutant diffusion is calculated in method simulation in Carlow；
S2, contamination accident probability of happening calculate；
The condition occurred by defining downstream contamination accident is polluted in conjunction with the pollutant diffusion result that the first step obtains
The probability density function of object peak concentration and pollutant exceeded duration further obtains the general of downstream contamination accident generation
Rate；
S3, contamination accident influence to calculate；
With reference to the state that pollutant is spread, binding hierarchy analytic approach (AHP) assesses pop-up threat, obtains dirt
Health, economy, society and the water system that dye accident may cause influence；
S4, the risk class based on risk Metrics determine；
By define early-warning point EP pollutant risk, the contamination accident probability of happening that second step, third step obtain with
And on the basis of the quantization of pollutant accident impact, the risk of early-warning point is obtained using risk matrix method synthesis.
Pollutant described in S1 is simulated：
(2.1) analysis of uncertainty
Effective analysis to the uncertain source of accident constructs water quality model, improves the accuracy of model prediction；
(2.2) data prediction
Related data is cleaned, is converted and reduction method is to improve the precision of model prediction.
Monte carlo method is used in the analysis of uncertainty, is mainly comprised the following steps：
(3.1) water quality model is established, needs to establish a mathematical model according to actual environment before carrying out Monte Carlo simulation,
The one-dimensional water quality model of i.e. one Parameter uncertainties；
(3.2) it determines that input variable is distributed, determines the range that model parameter is likely to occur, and provide in range and be likely to occur
The corresponding probability of occurrence of value, choose one as true value from possible probability distribution at random when test every time and counted
It calculates；
(3.3) random variable values are determined, it is determined that after the distribution of input variable, test is random every time therefrom chooses one
Parameter of the variate-value as one-dimensional water quality model, is calculated output valve；
(3.4) decision is analyzed and formulated, a series of probability distribution of output results is obtained by calculating simulation, to what is obtained
Statistical result carries out analysis comparison, provides foundation of the corresponding warning information as decision-making for policymaker.
The S2 includes the following contents
(4.1) pollutant concentration probability density function is obtained
The probability density function for obtaining pollutant concentration facilitates look at the probability distribution of pollutant concentration, the dirt of early-warning point
Contaminate object peak concentration CPIt is expressed as with the exceeded duration D of pollutant
WhereinI-th of section is represented in the pollutant concentration at j moment；Represent the section nearest from early-warning point EP
Pollutant concentration；CTIndicate the threshold value of the processing capacity of sewage treatment plant；
By uncertain simulation of water quality obtain the pollutant of downstream early-warning point peak concentration and pollutant it is exceeded lasting
The probability density function of time, the limited number of random experiment, what is obtained is the histogram of the frequency of output valve, is then fitted again
Corresponding probability density function curve is obtained, when showing for histogram, defining Frequence (h) is the institute in the h articles column
The quantity of the output valve occurred, then the set of the result of all outputs is represented by
Wherein H indicates cylindrical quantity；N indicates the set of all output results being likely to occur；
Then the density of statistical variable is obtained
Wherein s indicates cylindrical width,
Based on above-mentioned equation (4), when s is sufficiently small and N is sufficiently large, contaminant peak concentrations and pollutant is exceeded when continuing
Between histogram can similar to probability density function,
(4.2) early-warning point contingency occurrence probability calculates
The definition of probability that contamination accident occurs is the peak concentration C of early-warning point pollutantPIt has been more than the threshold value C of early warningT, lead to
It crosses and compares analog result, the probability of happening for obtaining contamination accident is as follows：
Or the expression formula with statistical result：
Wherein CPiIt is the contaminant peak concentrations that i-th is simulated,
The probability of early-warning point contamination accident generation is obtained by above-mentioned equation (7) or (8), then according to actual event
Probability levels distribution definition, and then obtain contamination accident generation probability levels.
The main flow of the S3 is：
Pollutant concentration spatial and temporal variation is obtained by simulation of water quality, is reached with contaminant peak concentrations, pollutant pre-
Foundation of the alert point time, the exceeded duration accident parameter of pollutant as risk evaluating method, according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP)
Obtaining health, economy caused by contamination accident, society and water system influences.
The S4 mainly uses risk matrix method to provide the risk class of contamination accident,
To the pollutant risk of early-warning point EP just like giving a definition：
Wherein L is represented under the premise of contamination accident occurs for upstream, and the probability of contamination accident, I will occur for early-warning point EP
Indicate that contamination accident, including may be each to entire city bring economy, society, ecology in early-warning point EP bring potential impact
The negative effect of a aspect,It is the interrelational form based on L and I, occurs in the contamination accident that second step, third step obtain
On the basis of probability and the quantization of pollutant accident impact, the wind of early-warning point is obtained by L and I synthesis using risk matrix
Danger.
The influence of the river pop-up threat using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (Analytic Hierarchy Process,
Abbreviation AHP) quantization pollution effect grade, it is divided into three steps：
(5.1) Recurison order hierarchy is constructed
When solving the problems, such as using AHP analysis, the tree shaped model for constructing the structure that has levels is first had to.Under normal conditions
The level of tree is divided into three layers.Element of upper one layer of the element as criterion to next layer plays dominating role；
(5.2) comparator matrix is constructed
It determines the weight of each hierarchical elements, each element and is subordinated to the lower layer each element of the element and collectively forms a son
Region constructs several comparator matrix M for each element in region, uses aijIndicate that any two element is to upper one layer in next layer
The ratio between influence degree of element, comparator matrix M are expressed as：
Element a in matrixijIt is necessary to meet following condition：
It is one layer relatively upper can to find out next layer of element after normalized for the feature vector for finding out judgment matrix
The relative importance of element；
The feature vector, X of comparator matrix should meet equation
MX=λmaxX (12)
Wherein λmaxFor the maximum eigenvalue of comparator matrix；
(5.3) consistency check
Since the comparison between element individually carries out two-by-two, in the biggish situation of number of elements, it is easy to appear partially
Difference, the effect of consistency check is to guarantee judgement between any two, and there is no biggish deviations, define the index of consistency
Formula：
Wherein nMFor the order of comparator matrix；
As CI=0, indicate that comparator matrix has complete consistency；CI value is bigger, illustrates that the consistency of matrix is poorer.
The S4 mainly uses risk matrix method to provide the risk class of contamination accident,
The risky influence grade of risk Metrics and risk probability grade two dimensions composition, risk be divided into it is low, in,
Height, venture influence grade are divided into small, middle and high and very high, higher grade expression accident once generation, bring consequence and influence
More serious, risk probability grade is divided into level Four：Basic, normal, high, very high, the determination of risk class is according to venture influence grade
With the comprehensive determination of two dimensions of risk probability grade.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is that river pollution accident emergency responds schematic diagram；
Fig. 2 is four step water quality grade method for early warning frames；
Fig. 3 is the pollutant analog simulation process based on uncertain method；
Fig. 4 is the modeling process chart based on one-dimensional water quality model and monte carlo method；
Fig. 5 is early-warning point contaminant peak concentrations probability distribution；
Fig. 6 is the exceeded duration histogram of pollutant concentration；It is divided into two parts, (a) indicates D after accident generation 36 hours
The column frequency diagram of appearance (b) is shown over time, the frequency of the same early-warning point pollutant exceeded duration
The variation tendency of secondary distribution；
Fig. 7 is early-warning point EP-E contaminant peak concentrations Three-Dimensional Dynamic probability distribution graph；
Fig. 8 is that river pop-up threat influences calculation flow chart；
Fig. 9 is that early-warning point influences Recurison order hierarchy dendrogram.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described further with reference to the accompanying drawing.
The early warning frame of one river pop-up threat and corresponding emergency response mode are as shown in Figure 1.Upstream injection
Point (LP) is the place that pollutant injects river；Monitoring station is the real-time monitoring website of daily carry out water quality management, is usually had
The hydrology on basis, water quality, meteorological data；And sampled point of meeting an urgent need is after burst accident generation, that temporarily arranges is used to observe dirt
The sampled point of object diffusion-condition is contaminated, it can provide the data such as real-time pollutant concentration；Downstream early-warning point is that we need weight
The region of point concern pollutant concentration variation, usual its once receive serious pollution, it will cause serious society, economic shadow
It rings, such as the intake in city；Sewage treatment plant is for purifying contaminated water source, and water quality qualification can just be supplied to city after processing
Water；Intake sampled point is to guarantee the safety of drinking water supply in order to which the pollutant concentration of real-time measurement intake changes.
Four step water quality grade method for early warning frames are as shown in Figure 2.It is specifically described the method that each step uses below.
Using the sudden chemical leakage event in A upper river somewhere as the example of emulation.A upper river somewhere occurs
Sudden chemical leakage event, chemicals code name are T, and chemicals T, which starts to be leaked to the whole process for fully entering water body, to be held
It renews a contract 2 hours, may there is region to cause to seriously affect under.In order to carry out dynamic early-warning to chemicals T leakage accident, need
Emulate spatial and temporal distributions situation of several days chemicals T of future in river immediately when accident occurs.
(1) the pollutant simulation based on uncertain method
Pollutant analog simulation process is as shown in figure 3, uncertainty analysis method is determined using Carlow method is covered in present case
Property model use one-dimensional water quality model.
Fig. 4 is the modeling process chart based on one-dimensional water quality model and monte carlo method.This emulation has selected 160 kilometers
Long basin is comprehensively simulated, and is divided into 320 sections, and 0.5 kilometer every section is calculated, (the i73520@under computing engines
2.9,8g memories), the time simulated every time, 1000 random experiments were 3.61 hours time-consuming altogether in 13s or so.Initially section is dense
Degree seriesIt is that the fitting based on least square method obtains, and the dispersion coefficient E of sectioni, pollutant degradation coefficient ki、
The mean flow rate u in riveriIt is considered as uncertain variable, determines the possibility distribution of three variables：Ei：100m2/ s to 300m2/
S, obedience are uniformly distributed.ki：0.05day-1To 0.15day-1, obedience is uniformly distributed.ui：0.1m/s to 0.8m/s is obeyed uniform
Distribution.
In this emulation, 5 early-warning points are set up altogether and carry out analog simulation：EP-A, EP-B, EP-C, EP-D, EP-E.Wherein
This is related to the drinking water supply problem in city to EP-E, and it is also to be unfolded around the point that this, which emulates main early warning work,.
1000 groups of different pollutants, which have been obtained, by 1000 Monte Carlo simulations spreads result.The threshold of pollutant concentration
Value CTFor 0.005mg/L, therefore we need the moment whether to pay close attention to each early-warning point peak concentration more than 0.005mg/L.
Fig. 5 is 36 hours after the incident, five early-warning point CPStatistical Butut and probability density function figure.It can also from figure
To find out that the probability density of the peak concentration of each early-warning point appearance, the peak concentration possible range of EP-A early-warning point exist
Between 0.006mg/L-0.0084mg/L, and be concentrated mainly on 0.007mg/L or so, also mean that the peak value of EP-A early-warning point is dense
Degree 100% can be more than threshold value of warning 0.005mg/L.And the peak concentration of early-warning point EP-E is concentrated mainly on 0.003mg/L-
Between 0.0055mg/L, the concentration being mainly likely to occur is near 0.0045mg/L, due to that can not determine the accuracy of prediction,
The peak concentration of EP-E is it is possible to be more than threshold value of warning.Therefore, in prealarming process, it is still necessary to give height to EP-E and close
Note, being changed at any time with chemically T concentration influences Water Works.From this figure it can be seen that as early-warning point is apart from accident hair
The distance of raw point is gradually increased, and contaminant peak concentrations are also gradually reduced.
The column frequency diagram that D occurs after Fig. 6 (a) is indicated accident generation 36 hours, the higher expression of cylindricality go out in the range
Existing probability is bigger.Therefrom it can be seen that occurring that the nearest early-warning point EP-A pollutant concentration of point is exceeded to be continued from contamination accident
Time is concentrated mainly on 10 hours or so, and it is more the exceeded frequency of pollutant occur.With the increase of distance, corresponding early warning
The frequency that the pollutant of point is exceeded gradually decreases, lower in the exceeded frequency of early-warning point EP-E pollutant.
Fig. 6 (b) is shown over time, and the frequency of the same early-warning point pollutant exceeded duration is distributed
Variation tendency, due to being increasing of monitoring data, hydrology-water quality data continuous acquisition so that the result of early warning increasingly
Close to really.The exceeded probability of pollutant concentration is gradually increased, and the exceeded duration is also being continuously increased, this is also just alert
Show that relevant departments have to carry out prevention work.
Fig. 7 be early-warning point EP-E contaminant peak concentrations three-dimensional probability distribution graph, three dimensions be respectively time t (day),
Frequency f and peak concentration CP(mg/L).Pollutant is obtained by one group of (1000 times) Monte Carlo simulation of progress in every 3 hours first
The probability density function of peak concentration, top half are side view, the higher expression C of curvePThe frequency of appearance is higher.Lower half portion
For top view, color, which is more deeply felt, shows CPIt is higher to be worth the frequency occurred, is can be found that from figure over time, pollutant peak
Value concentration integrally expands, and the range being likely to occur increasingly is concentrated, this also in that related data continuous renewal and increasing
Add, pollution group is increasingly closer to caused by early-warning point.
(2) contamination accident contingency occurrence probability calculates
For the pop-up threat in the river A, the pollutant concentration threshold value C of early warningTFor 0.005mg/L.Therefore, pollutant
The probability L that accident occurs refers to the contaminant peak concentrations C simulated by monte carlo methodPSequence in be greater than or wait
In the probability of 0.005mg/L.
Table 1 is each early-warning point contingency occurrence probability in different time downstream after the accident, it can be seen that five early-warning points
The contamination accident probability of happening obtained within the time different after the accident by Monte Carlo simulation.Apparent can see
Remoter apart from incident point to early-warning point, the probability that accident occurs is lower.Meanwhile over time, each early-warning point in downstream
Contingency occurrence probability increasing, show also pollute over time group migration, downstream receives the possibility of pollution
Property is gradually increased.
The each early-warning point contingency occurrence probability in different time downstream after the accident of table 1
(3) contamination accident influences to calculate
The river Fig. 8 pop-up threat influences calculation flow chart.The influence of river pop-up threat mainly includes water quality
Four safe and healthy influence, economic impact and social influence parts.Pollutant concentration change in time and space rule are obtained by simulation of water quality
Rule reaches the accidents parameters such as early-warning point time, pollutant exceeded duration as risk using contaminant peak concentrations, pollutant
The foundation of evaluation method quantifies influence caused by obtaining contamination accident according to risk assessment.Traditional risk evaluating method is main
There are three types of：Qualitative evaluation, qualitative assessment and Semi-qualitative semi-quantitative assessment.This emulation risk evaluating method uses Semi-qualitative semidefinite
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of amount.
Fig. 9 early-warning point influences Recurison order hierarchy dendrogram, is compared to each other available comparator matrix according to each element
Wherein aijIndicate the relative importance of two elements.Then after passing through consistency check, available every height mark
Relative weight value LW of the standard in same layeri, as shown in formula 14-15.
If upper one layer of standard AiA is formed by m straton standardik, then a daughter element (can be described as event in this emulation)
Relative to contamination accident influence weighted value calculation formula be：
GWik=LWi×LWik (16)
The influence of contamination accident bring is quantified, the severity ID of each event itselfikMainly by expert according to
The result comprehensive judgement that experience and Monte Carlo simulation obtain.In this emulation, event severity ID is setikRange be 1-
5.Wherein 1 indicate that the event bring influence degree is lower, and 5 indicate that the event will bring strong influence.
IDikAnd GWikAfter all obtaining, so that it may which the influence to contamination accident quantifies, and the calculation formula of I is：
Determine severity that accident affects, I value is bigger, and expression accident bring consequence is more serious.
Table 2-6 is the weighing factor value of each event, and each comparator matrix passes through consistency check (CR<0.1).It is based on
It is 2.00 that early-warning point EP-E, which was calculated, in 24 hours after the incident influence value I in equation 16.
The weight of 2 elements A 1-A4 of table
3 elements A of table11-A13Weight
4 elements A of table21-A23Weight
5 elements A of table31-A33Weight
6 elements A of table31-A33Weight
(4) risk class based on risk Metrics determines
The risky influence grade of risk Metrics and risk probability grade two dimensions composition, risk be divided into it is low, in,
It is high.Venture influence grade is divided into small, middle and high and very high four grades, and higher grade expression accident once occurs, after bring
Fruit and influence are more serious.Risk probability grade is also classified into basic, normal, high, very high four grades.
Risk class is that height indicates that this is a unacceptable risk for the early-warning point of downstream.Risk class is middle table
Show pollutant at present also in a controllable state.Risk class be it is low, indicate the possible consequence of pollutant influence compared with
It is low.
1) venture influence grade determines
According to the severity that the available pollutant accident of calculating of accident impact impacts, according to its severity
Size, determine venture influence grade in conjunction with concrete case.The corresponding contingency occurrence probability of four grades is defined in this emulation
Respectively：" L < 5% ", " 5%≤L≤15% ", " 15%≤L≤40% ", " L > 40% ".
2) risk probability grade determines
Risk probability refers to the probability that pollutant accident occurs in downstream, and it is super to refer in particular to contaminant peak concentrations in the present invention
Cross the threshold value of the sewage treatment capacity of sewage treatment plant.Basic, normal, high and very high four grades are distinguished according to the range of quantization
Dividing range is：" I < 0.5 ", " 0.5≤I≤1.5 ", " 1.5≤I≤3 ", " I > 3 ".
By taking the risk class confirmation of 24 hours early-warning point EP-E after the accident as an example, contingency occurrence probability L is
2.2%, the influence quantized value of accident is 2.00, therefore available contamination accident probability of happening grade is " low ", accident impact etc.
Grade is "high".Based on risk matrix method, can be determined after contamination accident occurs after 24 hours by table 7, the wind of early-warning point EP-E
Dangerous grade is low.
7 risk class matrix of table
Described above is the example that provides of the present invention, the results of simulation show technical solution proposed by the invention for
The early warning result of the river A pop-up threat.It should be pointed out that the present invention is not limited solely to above-described embodiment, it is prominent for other
Contamination accident is sent out, good early warning effect can be also provided using technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of Sudden Water Pollution Accident Early-warning method based on Monte Carlo and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which is characterized in that the party
Method combines two modules of simulation of water quality and risk assessment, and the probability and accident bring occurred from contamination accident influences two
The comprehensive risk class for providing contamination accident of dimension, gives a four step method for prewarning risk based on uncertain method；
S1, the pollutant simulation based on monte carlo method；
Based on analysis of uncertainty, uncertain water quality model is constructed, according to water quality, the hydrology, meteorological data, using Monte Carlo
The time and space changing rule of pollutant diffusion is calculated in method simulation；
S2, contamination accident probability of happening calculate；
The condition occurred by defining downstream contamination accident obtains pollutant peak in conjunction with the pollutant diffusion result that the first step obtains
It is worth the probability density function of concentration and pollutant exceeded duration, further obtains the probability of downstream contamination accident generation；
S3, contamination accident influence to calculate；
With reference to the state that pollutant is spread, binding hierarchy analytic approach (AHP) assesses pop-up threat, obtains contaminated matter
Therefore health, economy, society and the water system that may cause influence；
S4, the risk class based on risk Metrics determine；
The contamination accident probability of happening obtained by defining the pollutant risk of early-warning point EP in second step, third step and dirt
On the basis of contaminating formal matter therefore influencing quantization, the risk of early-warning point is obtained using risk matrix method synthesis；
The S2 includes the following contents：
(4.1) probability density function of contaminant peak concentrations and exceeded duration is obtained
The probability density function for obtaining pollutant concentration facilitates look at the probability distribution of pollutant concentration, the pollutant of early-warning point
Peak concentration CPIt is expressed as with the exceeded duration D of pollutant
WhereinI-th of section is represented in the pollutant concentration at j moment；Represent the section pollutant nearest from early-warning point EP
Concentration；CTIndicate the threshold value of the processing capacity of sewage treatment plant；
Peak concentration and the pollutant exceeded duration of the pollutant of downstream early-warning point are obtained by uncertain simulation of water quality
Probability density function, the limited number of random experiment, what is obtained is the histogram of the frequency of output valve, is then fitted to obtain again
Corresponding probability density function curve, when being shown for histogram, define Frequence (h) be in the h articles column it is all go out
The quantity of existing output valve, then the set expression of the result of all outputs be
Wherein H indicates cylindrical quantity；N indicates the set of all output results being likely to occur；
Then the density of statistical variable is obtained
Wherein s indicates cylindrical width,
Based on above-mentioned equation (4), when s is sufficiently small and N is sufficiently large, contaminant peak concentrations and pollutant exceeded duration
Histogram similar to probability density function,
(4.2) early-warning point contingency occurrence probability calculates
The definition of probability that contamination accident occurs is the peak concentration C of early-warning point pollutantPIt has been more than the threshold value C of early warningT, pass through ratio
Compared with analog result, the probability of happening for obtaining contamination accident is as follows：
Or the expression formula with statistical result：
Wherein CPiIt is the contaminant peak concentrations that i-th is simulated,
The probability of early-warning point contamination accident generation is obtained by above-mentioned equation (7) or (8), then according to the general of actual event
The distribution of rate grade defines, and then obtains the probability levels of contamination accident generation.
2. the method according to claim 1, wherein the simulation of pollutant described in S1 includes：
(2.1) analysis of uncertainty
The uncertain source of accident is effectively analyzed, water quality model is constructed, improves the accuracy of model prediction；
(2.2) data prediction
Related data is cleaned, is converted and reduction method is to improve the precision of model prediction.
3. the method according to claim 1, wherein monte carlo method described in S1 mainly comprises the following steps：
(3.1) it establishes water quality model, carries out establishing a mathematical model, i.e., one ginseng according to actual environment before Monte Carlo simulation
The uncertain one-dimensional water quality model of number；
(3.2) it determines that input variable is distributed, determines the range that model parameter is likely to occur, and provide the value being likely to occur in range
Corresponding probability of occurrence is chosen one at random when test every time from possible probability distribution and is calculated as true value；
(3.3) random variable values are determined, it is determined that after the distribution of input variable, test is random every time therefrom chooses a variable
It is worth the parameter as one-dimensional water quality model, output valve is calculated；
(3.4) decision is analyzed and formulated, obtains a series of probability distribution of output results by calculating simulation.
4. the method according to claim 1, wherein the main flow of the S3 is：
Pollutant concentration spatial and temporal variation is obtained by simulation of water quality, early-warning point is reached with contaminant peak concentrations, pollutant
The foundation of time, the exceeded duration accident parameter of pollutant as risk evaluating method, obtains according to analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP)
Health, economy caused by contamination accident, society and water system influence.
5. the method according to claim 1, wherein the S4 mainly uses risk matrix method to provide contaminated matter
Therefore risk class,
First to the pollutant risk of early-warning point EP just like giving a definition：
Wherein L is represented under the premise of contamination accident occurs for upstream, and the probability of contamination accident will occur for early-warning point EP, and I is indicated
Contamination accident is influenced in early-warning point EP bring health, economic, society and water system,Expression is passed through using risk matrix method
L and I synthesis obtains the risk of early-warning point；
Risk Metrics are made of two dimensions of venture influence grade and risk probability grade, respectively correspond the L and I in (9), grade
Higher expression early-warning point EP will occur contamination accident probability and accident bring consequence and influence more serious, risk etc.
Grade is determined according to two dimensions of venture influence grade and risk probability grade are comprehensive.
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