CN111461414A - Early warning method for sudden water pollution accident - Google Patents
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Abstract
A sudden water pollution accident early warning method comprises the following steps: 1) constructing a sudden water pollution accident early warning index system by adopting a theoretical analysis method according to the emission characteristics of the pollution source and the characteristics of the water environment; 2) the system analyzes the relative importance of the early warning indexes of the sudden water pollution accident, establishes a hierarchical structure matrix, and carries out weight assignment on each early warning index by utilizing a hierarchical analysis method; 3) determining early warning index grading and threshold value standard, and calculating a water environment pollution accident alarm comprehensive index; 4) and determining the classification standard of the sudden water environment pollution accident, and determining the warning level of the sudden water pollution accident according to the comprehensive warning index of the water environment pollution accident. The method can reasonably evaluate the influence degree and range of the sudden water pollution accident, and provides reliable scientific basis for making and implementing the sudden water environment pollution accident emergency plan by government departments.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of water environment protection, and particularly relates to a sudden water pollution accident early warning method which provides scientific basis for formulating and implementing a water pollution accident emergency plan.
Background
The existing early warning method for sudden water pollution environmental accidents has the following defects:
(1) the early warning index system is not enough in system and has low operability, so that the early warning work is difficult to be rapidly completed in a short time.
(2) The application range of the index is limited to a fixed area, and a perfect early warning index system is lacked aiming at sudden water pollution accidents.
(3) The early warning index system is more constructed by physical and chemical (such as water temperature, turbidity and concentration) indexes and regional social and economic effect indexes (such as casualties and direct economic loss), and direct or indirect ecological risks and acute or long-term post-accident risk evaluation generated by sudden pollution accidents are insufficient.
Generally, the existing early warning method for sudden water pollution accidents is not perfect enough and needs to be deeply explored.
Disclosure of Invention
Based on the problems in the early warning research, the invention aims to provide a sudden water pollution accident early warning method.
In order to achieve the purpose, the early warning method for the sudden water pollution accident provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
1) constructing a sudden water pollution accident early warning index system by adopting a theoretical analysis method according to the emission characteristics of the pollution source and the characteristics of the water environment;
2) the system analyzes the relative importance of the early warning indexes of the sudden water pollution accident, establishes a hierarchical structure matrix, and carries out weight assignment on each early warning index by utilizing a hierarchical analysis method;
3) determining early warning index grading and threshold value standard, and calculating a water environment pollution accident alarm comprehensive index;
4) and determining the classification standard of the sudden water environment pollution accident, and determining the warning level of the sudden water pollution accident according to the comprehensive warning index of the water environment pollution accident.
According to the method for early warning the sudden water pollution accident, the early warning indexes in the step 1 are obtained by searching relevant data, documents and site survey and collecting pollution source emission characteristics and water environment characteristics, the early warning indexes which can reflect the influence of the sudden water pollution accident are screened, and the contribution rate and the relevance of each index are determined by analyzing the early warning indexes of the sudden water pollution accident in a centralized manner.
According to the early warning method for the sudden water pollution accident, a group of screened early warning indexes comprise risk source identification, the number of risk sources, the initial accident control degree, the water environment management level, pollutant mobility, pollutant exceeding multiple, pollution degradability, the scale of an accident affected water body, the water environment degradation degree, the accident influence range, the accident influence time, the accident influence area type, the aquatic ecological risk and the human health risk.
In the sudden water pollution accident early warning method, in the step 2, the weight assignment is carried out on each early warning index by using an analytic hierarchy process, a target layer, a standard layer and an index layer are established, and a judgment matrix A is constructed as [ a ]ij]Determining the judgment matrix by comparing two by two of the single layers, and aij>0，aij＝1/aji，aii＝1。
The sudden water pollution accident early warning method comprises the steps of constructing a judgment matrix A ═ aij]A in (a)jiIs determined by adopting a 9-degree standard method, namely: a isiAnd aj Taking 1 when the importance is equal; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is small, take 3; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is higher, 5 is taken; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is very important, 7 is taken; a isiRatio ajAnd 9 when the absolute importance is high. On the contrary, 1/3, 1/5, 1/7, 1/9, 2, 4, 6 and 8 are taken as scales of intermediate state reactions between two judgment elements respectively, and then a judgment matrix is constructed according to the principle.
In the early warning method for the sudden water pollution accident, in the early warning index grading and threshold value standard in the step 3, grading threshold value grading of a qualitative index is described according to the property of the accident and is directly graded according to a grading standard; and the quantitative index is subjected to linear interpolation scoring according to the quantitative calculation result and is expressed by percentage.
The early warning method for the sudden water pollution accident is characterized in that the warning comprehensive index of the water environment pollution accident in the step 3 is calculated by adopting a weighted average model, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula, n is the index number in the early warning index system; omegaiThe weight of the ith early warning index; ei(t) is the warning situation score value of the ith early warning index at the moment t.
The method for early warning the sudden water pollution accident comprises the following steps of dividing the warning situation grades of the water pollution accident according to the calculated warning situation comprehensive index in the step 4,
when W is more than 0 and less than or equal to 40, the water environment accident is light, blue, marked as IV grade;
when the W is more than 40 and less than or equal to 60, the color is middle-warning, yellow, is a larger water environment accident and is marked as grade III;
when the W is more than 60 and less than or equal to 80, the alarm is serious, orange is taken as a serious water environment accident, and the mark is II grade;
when the W is more than 80 and less than or equal to 100, the color is red, which is marked as grade I for serious water environment pollution accidents.
The invention has the following advantages:
(1) comprehensively considering the early warning index set of the sudden water pollution accident, the emission characteristic of a pollution source and the water environment characteristic, and constructing an early warning method suitable for the sudden water pollution accident;
(2) the method for early warning the sudden water pollution accident based on the index superposition has the advantages of simple principle, easily obtained data, intuitive warning situation result obtained by evaluation and easy explanation and application.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the sudden water pollution accident early warning method of the present invention
FIG. 2 is a hierarchical structure model of an analytic hierarchy process
Detailed Description
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent, the present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the following specific embodiments.
The invention discloses a sudden water pollution accident early warning method, which is based on pollution source emission characteristics and water environment characteristics, adopts a theoretical analysis method to construct a sudden water pollution accident early warning index system, adopts an analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each index, utilizes a weighted summation model to calculate a water environment pollution accident alarm comprehensive index, and divides the sudden water pollution accident alarm into 4 grades, namely a light alarm, a medium alarm, a heavy alarm and a huge alarm.
Specifically, the early warning method for the sudden water pollution accident comprises the following steps:
1) considering the emission characteristics of pollution sources and the characteristics of water environment, and carrying out the scientific, systematic, operable, dynamic, relatively independent and representative early warning index screening principle, a theoretical analysis method is adopted to construct the early warning method for sudden water pollution accidents, wherein the early warning indexes mainly comprise two aspects of warning source indexes and warning omen indexes, and the specific early warning system framework is shown in figure 1. The police source index mainly considers the environmental risk of the risk source and the pollutant characteristics. The warning sign indexes mainly comprise 3 types of receptors for water environment influence, ecological influence and human health influence.
2) And determining the weight of each evaluation index by adopting an analytic hierarchy process.
3) Determining early warning index grading and threshold value standard, and calculating a water environment pollution accident alarm comprehensive index;
4) and determining the classification standard of the sudden water environment pollution accident, and determining the warning level of the sudden water pollution accident according to the comprehensive warning index of the water environment pollution accident.
In more detail, the sudden water pollution accident early warning method comprises the following steps:
firstly, constructing a sudden water pollution accident early warning index system
And (4) screening 14 representative specific early warning indexes according to the emission characteristics of the pollution source and the characteristics of the water environment.
(1) Risk source identification C1
Referring to an enterprise emergency environmental event risk classification method (HJ941-2018), identifying risk sources according to a ratio Q of the maximum storage amount of each environmental risk substance in a factory boundary to the corresponding critical amount:
when the enterprise only relates to one environmental risk substance, calculating the ratio of the total storage quantity of the substance to the critical quantity of the substance, namely Q;
when a plurality of environment risk substances exist in a company, calculating a ratio Q of the storage quantity of the substances to the critical quantity of the substances according to the formula (1):
in the formula: q. q.s1，q2，…，qn-maximum storage of each environmentally hazardous substance, t;
Q1，Q2，…，Qn-critical amount of each environmentally hazardous substance, t.
When Q is<1, directly evaluating the enterprise as a general environmental risk level, and expressing the level as Q; when Q is more than or equal to 1, dividing the Q value into: (1) q is more than or equal to 1 and less than 10; (2) q is more than or equal to 10 and less than 100; (3) q is not less than 100, and Q is1、Q2And Q3And (4) showing.
(2) Number of sources of risk C2
The existing risk sources mainly comprise enterprise risk sources, hazardous chemical substance conveying pipe networks and hazardous chemical substance transportation roads. Referring to an enterprise emergency environment event risk classification method (HJ941-2018), the higher the percentage of the number of large and important wading environment risk enterprises and all environment risk enterprises in the region is, the higher the risk classification is represented by D; the more the quantity of dangerous chemicals transported by dangerous chemical transport roads or dangerous chemical transport pipe networks in the region every year; the higher the alert level, denoted by M.
(3) Degree of preliminary control of accident C3
The degree index of the accident primary control mainly considers the possibility that the risk substances enter the water body after the sudden accident happens. The more complete the emergency facilities and emergency plans of the enterprise risk sources, the less the possibility of the risk substances entering the water body, and the lower the accident risk. According to the factors of process equipment guarantee facilities, risk source monitoring and early warning facilities, risk slowing and control facilities, emergency plan systems of emergency environmental events, personnel management and training, emergency rescue material storage and the like of enterprises, the control capability of the enterprises for dealing with the emergency accidents is evaluated, and the control capability is graded in a percentage mode.
(4) Water environment management level C4
The drainage basin environment management level is high, the stronger the emergency response capability is, the smaller the potential risk of the environmental accident is; on the contrary, the drainage basin environment management level is low, the information communication is not smooth, the lower the emergency response capability is, the greater the potential risk of the environmental accident is. The management level of the basin environment depends on factors such as a basin environment monitoring level, early warning platform construction conditions, emergency facility investment, emergency technology level, upstream and downstream combined emergency capacity, accident emergency plans, emergency personnel quality, water pollution accident attention of citizens and the like, and is divided into four types of low, general, high and high.
(5) Contaminant mobility C5
Aiming at the main pollutants of toxic and harmful liquid, oil and other organic matters, an important parameter of the organic characteristic pollutant adsorbed by solid-phase organic carbon is represented by an organic carbon distribution coefficient lgKoc, and the important parameter is used as a representation index of the mobility of the organic characteristic pollutant. The larger the lgKoc value, the more difficult the material is to migrate and the less hazardous.
(6) Maximum exceeding multiple of pollutant concentration C6
The higher the pollutant concentration standard exceeding multiple is, the higher the sudden pollution early warning level is. Referring to a pollution index method recommended in the water environment current situation evaluation method, a calculation formula of the maximum overproof times of the characteristic pollutants is as shown in formula (2):
in the formula, piThe maximum overproof times of pollutant concentration; c. CiThe maximum measured concentration of the characteristic pollutant i at the position 50m downstream of the accident position is mg/L;/siSelecting a corresponding surface water environment standard according to the water area function type for the standard concentration value of the characteristic pollutant i, namely mg/L.
(7) Pollutant degradability C7
Quantification of characteristic pollution degradability mainly refers to the biodegradation occurring in the aqueous environment, using T50As a parameter for characterizing the organic degradability, T50The time (d) required for the organic concentration to drop from the original value to 50% in water. T is50The smaller the value, the higher the degradability and the smaller the alert level.
(8) Accident affected water body scale C8
The water environment risk receptor mainly comprises rivers, lakes, oceans, reservoirs, water intakes of waterworks, drinking water source protection areas, natural protection areas and the like. The larger the scale of the affected water body is, the more abundant the use function is, and the higher the warning level is.
(9) Degree of degradation of aqueous environment C9
The more the water quality deteriorates, the higher the warning level. Referring to the 'surface water environment quality standard' (GB 3838-2002), the surface water environment quality is divided into 6 grades of I, II, III, IV, V and poor V, and the water environment quality degradation degree is represented by the grade of water quality difference before and after pollution.
(10) Accident impact range C10
And according to the river water flow condition, calculating the transverse uniform mixing distance of the characteristic pollutants according to a mixing process section length estimation formula (3) in the environmental impact technology evaluation guide surface water environment (HJ23-2018) for representing the accident impact range. The larger the influence range of the sudden water pollution accident is, the higher the warning level is.
Wherein L is the distance for mixing pollutant uniformly in transverse direction, m, a is the distance from the discharge port to the bank, m, u is the average flow velocity of river in m/s, B is the average width of river in m, EyIs the transverse diffusion coefficient of water flow, m2/s。
(11) Accident impact time C11
The accident influence time refers to the duration of the influence of the sudden water pollution accident, and the longer the duration is, the higher the warning level is. Simulating by adopting a one-dimensional or two-dimensional unsteady flow water quality model according to 'environmental impact technology evaluation guide surface water environment' (HJ23-2018), calculating the exceeding maintaining time of the characteristic pollutant at a downstream position of an accident as the accident impact time, wherein the calculation formulas are respectively formula (4) and formula (5):
a one-dimensional model:
two-dimensional model:
in the formula, ChIs the background concentration value of the characteristic pollutant in the water body, mg/L, A is the cross section area, m2；ExIs the longitudinal diffusion coefficient of water flow, m2/s；EyIs the transverse diffusion coefficient of water flow, m2S; m is the amount of pollutants, g; h is the average river depth m; k is a degradation coefficient; x is the longitudinal distance between the sewage discharge point and the water intake, m; y is the transverse distance between the sewage discharge point and the water intake, m; u is the average river flow, m/s.
(12) Accident affected zone category C12
The higher the functional level of the water environment is, the higher the warning level is. The water environment functional regions mainly comprise a drinking water primary protection region of a national natural protection region, a rare aquatic organism protection region, a water source conservation region, an ocean special protection region, a drinking water secondary protection region, a fishery water consumption region, an important wetland, a sea water bathing place, an industrial water consumption region, a tourism region, an eutrophic water region and the like.
(13) Ecological risk C13
The ecological influence generated by the sudden water pollution accident is represented by an aquatic ecological risk index, the index is determined by a general entropy method, and the higher the index is, the higher the early warning level is. The calculation formula is shown as formula (6):
Q＝EEC/LC50(6)
wherein EEC is measured concentration of pollutant, mg/L, L C50Is the semi-lethal concentration of toxic substances, mg/L.
When various pollutants are discharged, the ecological risk index calculation formula is as follows (7):
wherein Q is the total ecological risk index; qiAn ecological risk index for the ith pollutant; EECiMeasured concentration of the i-th pollutant is mg/L, L C50iThe semilethal concentration of the ith toxic pollutant is mg/L, and n is the number of pollutants discharged into water.
(14) Human health risk C14
The health influence of sudden water pollution accidents on human bodies respectively adopts the risk value (A) of carcinogenic riskrisk) And a risk value for a non-carcinogenic risk (B)hi) And (4) representing, wherein the higher the risk value is, the higher the early warning level is. Risk value of carcinogenic risk (A)risk) And a risk value for a non-carcinogenic risk (B)hi) Calculated from equations (8) and (9), respectively:
Arisk＝1-exp(-CDI×SF) (8)
Bhi＝CDI/RfD (9)
wherein SF is the carcinogenic slope factor of the contaminant, mg-1Kg. d, IRIS database acquisition; rfD is reference dose of pollutant, mg.kg-1·d-1Obtaining an IRIS database; CDI is long-term daily dose of mg/kg-1·d-1The long-term daily intake dose CDI exposed via the drinking water route was calculated according to formula (10):
wherein C is the actually measured concentration of carcinogen in the medium, mg/L, IR is the daily drinking water consumption of an adult, L/d, EF is exposure frequency, d/a, ED is exposure time delay, a, BW is average human body weight, kg, AT is average exposure time, d.
Secondly, determining the weight of each early warning index
Because the indexes have different effects in the index system and have different influence degrees on the water environment, in order to distinguish the differences, the early warning index system of the invention adopts an analytic hierarchy process to assign weight values to the early warning indexes. The hierarchical structure of the sudden water pollution accident early warning index system is established through an analytic hierarchy process and is divided into three parts: target layer, criteria layer and index layer, see fig. 1.
Secondly, on the basis of hierarchical structure, constructing a judgment matrix A ═ aij]Determining the judgment matrix by comparing two by two of the single layers, and aij>0，aij＝1/aji，aii＝1。ajiThe determination of (2) adopts a 9-degree standard method, namely: a isiAnd aj Taking 1 when the importance is equal; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is small, take 3; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is higher, 5 is taken; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is very important, 7 is taken; a isiRatio ajAnd 9 when the absolute importance is high. On the contrary, 1/3, 1/5, 1/7, 1/9, 2, 4, 6 and 8 are respectively taken as scales for judging the intermediate state reaction between two elements. The decision matrix is then constructed according to the above principles.
On the basis of the judgment matrix, calculating to obtain the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrixλmaxAnd the corresponding feature vector W, and after normalizing the feature vector, the relative importance weight vector W of the corresponding hierarchical unit sequencing can be obtained1.w2.w3....wi. Using maximum eigenvalues lambdamaxThe sum weight vector calculates a consistency index CI and a random consistency ratio CR in accordance with equations (11) and (12).
Wherein the values of RI are shown in Table 1.
When CR is greater than 0.1, the consistency is not passed, which indicates that the value of the weight judgment matrix is not appropriate and needs to be readjusted. When CR <0.1, the weights pass the consistency check and the calculated values of the weights are available.
And (3) under a risk source environment risk criterion layer, four sub-indexes including risk source identification, risk source quantity, accident initial control degree and water environment management level are provided, and judgment matrixes constructed by an analytic hierarchy process are utilized to calculate the weight of each sub-index, which is shown in tables 2 and 3 respectively.
Under the pollutant characteristic criterion layer, three indexes of pollutant mobility, maximum exceeding multiple of pollutants and pollutant degradability are provided. The judgment matrix constructed by the analytic hierarchy process and the calculated weight of each sub-index are shown in table 4 and table 5 respectively.
Under the water environment influence criterion layer, five indexes including the scale of the affected water body of the accident, the water environment degradation degree, the accident influence range, the accident influence time and the accident influence area are provided. The judgment matrix constructed by the analytic hierarchy process and the calculated weight of each sub-index are shown in table 6 and table 7 respectively.
The early warning index ecological risk and the human health risk of the index layer are only one in the belonging criterion layer, so the weight of the early warning index ecological risk and the human health risk in the belonging criterion layer is 1.
After determining the weight of each early warning index in the corresponding criterion layer, aligning the indexes of the criterion layer to construct a judgment matrix, see table 8, determining the weight of each index of the criterion layer, carrying out consistency check, see table 9, and finally calculating the weight of each early warning index in the whole early warning system, see table 10.
Thirdly, determining the comprehensive index of the warning situation
And performing alarm condition comprehensive evaluation by using the alarm condition comprehensive index (W) of the water environment pollution accident according to the characteristics of the sudden water environment pollution accident and the construction result of the early warning index system. The comprehensive index of the water environment pollution accident warning condition adopts a weighted average model, and the expression of the weighted average model is formula (13):
in the formula, n is the index number in the early warning index system; omegaiThe weight of the ith early warning index; ei(t) the warning situation rating value of the ith early warning index at the time t, wherein the grading threshold of the qualitative index is directly graded according to the property description of the accident and the grading standard, and the quantitative index is graded according to the linear interpolation method according to the quantitative calculation result and is graded according to 100 grades when the grade is higher than the grade I; w (t) is a comprehensive index of the water environment pollution accident warning situation at the time t, and is expressed by percentage. The grades of the 14 early warning indexes and the standard values of the threshold values are shown in a table 11.
Fourthly, determining the alarm level of the sudden water pollution accident
Dividing the water pollution accident warning level according to the calculated warning comprehensive index as follows:
when W is more than 0 and less than or equal to 40, the water environment is a general water environment accident (IV grade);
when the W is more than 40 and less than or equal to 60, the color is middle-warning and yellow, and the accident is a larger water environment accident (III level);
when W is more than 60 and less than or equal to 80, the alarm is serious, orange is regarded as a serious water environment accident (level II);
when the W is more than 80 and less than or equal to 100, the water environment pollution accident is a serious water environment pollution accident (I level).
After the sudden water environment accident occurs, calculating a water environment pollution accident warning comprehensive index (W) according to each early warning index, judging the accident grade by combining the sudden water environment pollution accident warning grade standard, issuing warning grade information to the government and the public by corresponding colors, and taking corresponding emergency response and disposal measures.
Examples
The present invention will be explained in more detail with reference to the drawings and examples.
The pipeline for transporting organic matters in a certain place leaks, and two pollutants are mainly discharged: benzene and p-xylene, the total leakage amount is 20t, wherein the benzene and the p-xylene are respectively 10t, the leakage point is 0m away from the shore, the leakage causes the one-way river reduction to be polluted, and if the average water depth of the polluted position is 10m, the average water flow speed is 0.3m/s, and the transverse diffusion coefficient E of the water flow in the polluted area is assumedy＝0.14m2S, longitudinal diffusion coefficient Ex＝55.7m2The background concentration of organic matter in the river was 0.00 mg/L, and the average width of the river was 400 m.
1) Early warning index assignment
(1) The ratio Q of the quantity of the environmental risk substances of the leakage site to the critical quantity is calculated according to the formula (1) and is 21865.83, and the ratio Q belongs to Q3According to the early warning index classification and the threshold value standard of the table 11, the E1 is determined to be 100.
(2) The quality of the organic matters transported by the pipeline with organic matter leakage in the accident every year is 500 ten thousand, and E2 is determined to be 100 according to the early warning index classification and threshold value standard in the table 11.
(3) At present, risk prevention and control work of enterprises which record emergency plans of emergency environmental events in the area is well compared, and except individual production lines of individual enterprises, the enterprises can basically build risk prevention and control facilities and comply with the requirements of risk prevention and control management according to the enterprise emergency environmental event risk classification method (HJ941-2018), so that the initial accident control degree is 70%.
According to the early warning index grading and the threshold value standard of the table 11, the E3 is determined to be 60.
(4) At present, the environment monitoring level of the drainage basin in the region, the construction of an early warning platform, the investment of emergency facilities, the emergency technical level and the upstream and downstream combined emergency capacity are greatly improved, and the water environment management level is determined to be higher.
According to the early warning index grading and the threshold value standard of the table 11, the E4 is determined to be 60.
(5) EPI suite software was used to calculate the partition coefficients for benzene and para-xylene, lgKoc, respectively.
Benzene: lgKoc ═ 1.848 p-xylene: lgKoc 2.733
According to the early warning index classification and the threshold value standard in the table 11, the maximum value of the two pollutants is calculated by adopting an interpolation method, and the E5 is determined to be 88.69.
(6) After the organic pipeline leaks, the measured concentrations of benzene and p-xylene are respectively 0.03 mg/L and 0.8 mg/L, and according to the environmental quality standard of surface water (GB 3838-2002), the concentration standard limit values of benzene and p-xylene are respectively 0.01 mg/L and 0.8 mg/L.
Calculating the standard exceeding multiple p according to the measured concentration valuei：pBenzene and its derivatives＝0.03/0.01＝3.0pPara-xylene0.8/0.5-1.6 according to the classification of the early warning indexes and the threshold value standard of the table 11, the maximum value of the two pollutants is calculated by an interpolation method, and E6 is determined to be 100.
(7) The method comprises the steps of carrying out leakage events on a pipeline for conveying organic matters, mainly discharging two pollutants, and respectively calculating degradation parameters T of benzene and p-xylene by adopting EPI suite software50。
Benzene: t is5037.5 p-xylene: t is50＝15
And (4) calculating by adopting an interpolation method according to the early warning index grading and the threshold standard, taking the maximum value of the two pollutants, and determining that E7 is 60.
(8) After the organic pipelines leak, the pollution is caused to the nearby independent flow river reduction, the independent flow river reduction belongs to a first-level river channel, and E8 is determined to be 80 according to the early warning index classification and threshold value standard in the table 11.
(9) Before the pipeline of the organic matter leaks, the water quality monitoring result of the monitoring section in the area shows that most index values are less than the IV-class water quality standard limit value, wherein the potassium permanganate index, the chemical oxygen demand, the ammonia nitrogen and the total phosphorus are respectively 9.4 mg/L, 42 mg/L, 0.89 mg/L and 0.19 mg/L. after the pipeline of the organic matter leaks, the water quality monitoring result of the monitoring section shows that the potassium permanganate index, the chemical oxygen demand, the ammonia nitrogen and the total phosphorus are respectively 16.4 mg/L, 45 mg/L, 2.3 mg/L and 0.8 mg/L, and according to the standard limit value in the surface water environment quality standard (GB3838 and 2002), the water quality degradation level 2 can be seen, and the inferior V-class water can be reached.
According to the early warning index grading and the threshold value standard of the table 11, E9 is determined to be 80.
(10) And (3) calculating the transverse uniform mixing distance L of the pollutants to be 151.556km and 50km according to the formula (3), and determining E10 to be 100 according to the early warning index classification and threshold standard in the table 11.
(11) The single-flow river-reducing belongs to a flood-running river channel, but the region is one of important water supply sources of wetlands, so that the accident influence time of benzene is longer by referring to organic matter standard limit values of a centralized domestic drinking water source in 'surface water environment quality standard' (GB 3838-2002), wherein the benzene and p-xylene standards are Cs 0.01 mg/L and Cs 0.5 mg/L respectively, so that the duration of the benzene exceeding the standard at positions of 5km, 30km and 50km downstream is selected and calculated as the accident influence time, and E11 is determined.
The accident impact times of the pollutants at the downstream 5km, 30km and 50km were calculated according to equation (5) as 4.34, 9.2 and 11.7 hours, respectively.
According to the early warning index grading and the threshold value standard in the table 11, an interpolation method is adopted for calculation, the maximum value is obtained from the three results, and the E11 is determined to be 64.625.
(12) The independent flow river reduction belongs to a flood channel, but one of important water supply sources of the wetland determines that E12 is 100 according to early warning index grading and threshold value standards in a table 11.
(13) Assuming that the exposure concentrations of benzene and para-xylene after a water contamination accident were 0.03 mg/L and 0.8 mg/L, respectively, the semi-lethal concentrations of benzene and para-xylene were found to be 3800 mg/L and 2000 mg/L, respectively.
Q is calculated as 0.0004079 according to equations (6) and (7), and E13 is determined as 100 by interpolation according to the warning indicator classification and threshold criteria in table 11.
(14) After water pollution accident, the water contains two pollutants of benzene and p-xylene, the benzene has carcinogenicity, and the carcinogenic slope factor SF of the benzene taken orally is 5.50 × 10-2mg-1Kg. d, concentration of benzene0.03 mg/L, the daily drinking water amount IR of an adult is 4L/d, the exposure frequency EF is 100d/a, the exposure time delay ED is 0.01a, the average human body weight BW is 70kg, and the average exposure time AT is 80 d.
A is calculated from the expressions (8) and (10)risk＝1.2×10-6And according to the early warning index grading and the threshold value standard in the table 11, calculating by adopting an interpolation method, and determining that E14 is 61.
2) Calculating the comprehensive index W of the warning situation
According to the weights of the early warning indexes calculated in the table 10 and the evaluation results of the early warning indexes, the comprehensive warning situation index W under the sudden water environment accident situation is calculated to be 82.83 by adopting the formula (13).
3) Determining accident alert levels
According to the table 12, the early warning level of the sudden water environment accident is judged to be level I, which belongs to a particularly serious water environment pollution accident, and the warning condition level is a great warning and a red early warning is issued.
TABLE 1 average random consistency index RI
| Order of |
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| RI | 0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 |
TABLE 2 Risk source environmental risk judgment matrix
| Risk source identification | Number of sources of risk | Degree of preliminary control of accident | Water environment management level | |
| |
1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Number of sources of risk | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Degree of preliminary control of accident | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Water environment management level | 0.25 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
TABLE 3 Risk sources environmental Risk index weights
TABLE 4 pollutant characteristics decision matrix
| Mobility of contaminants | Maximum exceeding multiple | Degradability | |
| Mobility of |
1 | 2 | 4 |
| Maximum exceeding multiple | 0.5 | 1 | 2 |
| Degradability | 0.25 | 0.5 | 1 |
TABLE 5 contaminant characterization indicator weights
TABLE 6 Water environmental impact judgment matrix
TABLE 7 Water environmental impact index weights
TABLE 8 criterion layer early warning index judgment matrix
TABLE 9 criterial level early warning index weights
TABLE 10 weight table of each early warning index
| Early warning index | Index weight Bi |
| Risk source identification C1 | 0.246 |
| Number of sources of risk C2 | 0.089 |
| Degree of preliminary control of accident C3 | 0.074 |
| Water environment management level C4 | 0.074 |
| Contaminant mobility C5 | 0.095 |
| Maximum over-standard multiple C6 | 0.069 |
| Degradability C7 | 0.022 |
| Accident affected water body scale C8 | 0.049 |
| Degree of degradation of aqueous environment C9 | 0.028 |
| Accident impact range C10 | 0.015 |
| Accident impact time C11 | 0.015 |
| Accident affected zone category C12 | 0.034 |
| Ecological risk C13 | 0.120 |
| Human health risks C14 | 0.070 |
TABLE 11 early warning index Classification and threshold criteria
TABLE 12 classification standard for alarm condition of sudden water environment pollution accident
Claims (8)
1. A sudden water pollution accident early warning method comprises the following steps:
1) constructing a sudden water pollution accident early warning index system by adopting a theoretical analysis method according to the emission characteristics of the pollution source and the characteristics of the water environment;
2) the system analyzes the relative importance of the early warning indexes of the sudden water pollution accident, establishes a hierarchical structure matrix, and carries out weight assignment on each early warning index by utilizing a hierarchical analysis method;
3) determining early warning index grading and threshold value standard, and calculating a water environment pollution accident alarm comprehensive index;
4) and determining the classification standard of the sudden water environment pollution accident, and determining the warning level of the sudden water pollution accident according to the comprehensive warning index of the water environment pollution accident.
2. The sudden water pollution accident early warning method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the early warning indexes in step 1 are obtained by searching relevant data, documents and site survey to collect the emission characteristics of pollution sources and the characteristics of water environment, screening the early warning indexes which can reflect the influence of the sudden water pollution accident, and analyzing the early warning indexes of the sudden water pollution accident in a centralized manner to determine the contribution rate and the correlation of each index.
3. The sudden water pollution accident early warning method as claimed in claim 2, wherein the selected set of early warning indexes includes risk source identification, number of risk sources, accident preliminary control degree, water environment management level, pollutant mobility, pollutant exceeding multiple, pollution degradability, accident affected water body scale, water environment degradation degree, accident influence range, accident influence time, accident affected area category, aquatic ecological risk and human health risk.
4. The sudden water pollution accident early warning method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, the weight assignment is performed on each early warning index by using an analytic hierarchy process, a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer are established, and a judgment matrix A ═ a is constructedij]Determining the judgment matrix by comparing two by two of the single layers, and aij>0，aij＝1/aji，aii＝1。
5. The sudden water pollution accident early warning method as claimed in claim 4, wherein a decision matrix A ═ a is constructedij]A in (a)jiIs determined by adopting a 9-degree standard method, namely: a isiAnd ajTaking 1 when the importance is equal; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is small, take 3; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is higher, 5 is taken; a isiRatio ajIf the importance is very important, 7 is taken; a isiRatio ajTaking 9 when the absolute importance is important; on the contrary, 1/3, 1/5, 1/7, 1/9, 2, 4, 6 and 8 are taken as scales of intermediate state reactions between two judgment elements respectively, and then a judgment matrix is constructed according to the principle.
6. The sudden water pollution accident early warning method according to claim 1, wherein in the early warning index grading and threshold value standard in step 3, the grading threshold value of the qualitative index is graded according to the property description of the accident and is directly graded according to the grading standard; and the quantitative index is subjected to linear interpolation scoring according to the quantitative calculation result and is expressed by percentage.
7. The early warning method for sudden water pollution accidents according to claim 1, wherein the warning comprehensive index of the water environment pollution accidents in the step 3 is calculated by adopting a weighted average model, and the expression is as follows:
in the formula, n is the index number in the early warning index system; omegaiThe weight of the ith early warning index; ei(t) is the warning situation score value of the ith early warning index at the moment t.
8. The sudden water pollution accident early warning method according to claim 1, wherein the water pollution accident warning level is classified according to the calculated warning comprehensive index in step 4 as follows,
when W is more than 0 and less than or equal to 40, the water environment accident is light, blue, marked as IV grade;
when the W is more than 40 and less than or equal to 60, the color is middle-warning, yellow, is a larger water environment accident and is marked as grade III;
when the W is more than 60 and less than or equal to 80, the alarm is serious, the color is orange, and the important water environment accident is marked as level II;
when the W is more than 80 and less than or equal to 100, the water environment pollution accident is marked as grade I.
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