CN108320079B - Electric power secondary system risk assessment method considering information system connection and transmission - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk assessment method for a secondary power system in consideration of connection and transmission of an information system. The invention comprises the following steps: step 1, abstracting information system elements in a secondary system to generate an information network topology; setting a network operation simulation number N; step 2, performing state sampling on the related elements by using the reliability parameters, removing a fault part in the information network topology, and updating the information network topology; step 3, simulating the operation of the information network according to the routing strategy and the data packet transmission model; if the network operation times reach N, entering step 4; otherwise, returning to the step 2; step 4, counting the completion conditions of the uplink task and the downlink task in the network, and calculating the failure probability of the related IED function; and 5, calculating a risk index of the secondary system according to the value index and the failure probability of the IED function. The invention has better expansibility, stronger adaptability and higher practicability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power system automation, and particularly relates to a power secondary system risk assessment method considering information system connection and transmission.
Background
With the increasing degree of information in the power industry, the secondary power system (information system) has become an integral part of the whole power system, which is inseparable and depends on operation. On one hand, the powerful functions of the secondary system provide technical support for the normal operation of the power system; on the other hand, failure of the secondary system may affect reliable operation of the power system, even leading to system oscillation or large-scale power failure accidents. Therefore, establishing an effective power secondary system risk assessment method is of great significance to perfecting the overall risk assessment mechanism of the power system.
At present, many researches on the security risk of the secondary system have appeared at home and abroad, and can be broadly divided into two types: one type is only for modeling of an information system, the safety and the reliability of a secondary system are focused, and the influence of information layer failure on a physical layer of a power grid is not considered; the other type focuses on the specific application of the information system in the power system, and researches the influence of the failure of the secondary system on the power system from specific equipment, specific functions and specific systems. In addition, in the information transfer of the secondary system, most studies are insufficient in consideration of the dynamic transmission characteristics of the information system.
For the above reasons, the applicant hopes to provide a more general method for evaluating the risk of the power secondary system, which takes account of the static connection and dynamic transmission factors of the information system.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a power secondary system risk assessment method considering static connection and dynamic transmission of an information system, and considering the static connection and dynamic transmission factors of the information system. Specifically, the risk assessment of the secondary system is realized through three steps of information network topology generation, information network operation simulation, risk index calculation and the like. The method can provide an auxiliary decision basis for topology optimization, key element identification, risk management and the like of a secondary system.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problem comprises the following steps:
and step S1, abstracting information system elements in the secondary system to generate an information network topology. And setting the network operation simulation times N.
And step S2, sampling the state of the related elements by using the reliability parameters, removing the fault part in the information network topology, and updating the information network topology.
And step S3, simulating the operation of the information network according to the routing strategy and the data packet transmission model. If the network running times reach N, the step S4 is carried out; otherwise, the process returns to step S2.
And step S4, counting the completion conditions of the uplink task and the downlink task in the network, and calculating the failure probability of the related IED function.
And step S5, calculating a risk index of the secondary system according to the value index and the failure probability of the IED function.
In step S1, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the information system elements include a monitoring host, a switch, an Intelligent Electronic Device (IED), and a communication line. The IEDs are classified into an action type IED and a measurement type IED.
The information system element is abstracted to generate an information network topology, specifically: the supervisory host, switches and IEDs are abstracted as nodes and the communication lines are abstracted as edges. Wherein, the edge between the action type IED and the switch points to the former from the latter, the edge between the measurement type IED and the switch points to the latter from the former, and the rest edges are bidirectional. The direction of the edge represents the direction of information transfer.
In step S2, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the reliability parameters of the related elements include Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), Mean Time To Repair (MTTR). The state of the element is sampled using the monte carlo method, with 0 representing normal and 1 representing fault. The failed element is removed from the network topology. Only itself needs to be removed for an edge; for a node to remove itself, it also removes the edges that it connects to.
In step S3, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the routing strategy can be made according to actual requirements, such as shortest path routing.
Regarding the operation of the information network, the following assumptions are made:
(1) each node can transmit data packets to the adjacent nodes and receive the data packets from the adjacent nodes in each time step;
(2) each node can process C data packets at most in each time step;
(3) each node transmits data packets in sequence based on a first-in first-out (FIFO) principle;
(4) the packet queues at each node may be infinitely long;
(5) the data packet automatically disappears from the network when reaching the destination node;
(6) the monitoring host can generate a data packet, and a destination node of the data packet is an action type IED; the measurement IED can generate a data packet, and the destination node of the data packet is the monitoring host.
With respect to the packet transmission model, assuming that a packet P is transmitted to node m at time t +1 (t is an integer) and the destination node is D, the packet P can be represented as
P (t) ═ P (S, D, m, k) (formula 1)
Wherein, S is valid information (such as electrical quantity or control command) of the data packet P, and can be represented by binary code; D. m represents the address of the corresponding node in addition to the node; k is the number of time steps that have elapsed since the generation of the packet.
The contents of S and D may be erroneous every time step passes, and m and k are automatically updated. Specifically, from time t to t +1, there are
S′＝S-int(θ-αS) Δ S (formula 2)
D′＝D-int(θ-αD) Δ D (formula 3)
k' ═ k +1 (equation 4)
Wherein θ ═ rand (0,1) is a random number between 0 and 1; int is a rounding function; alpha is alphaS、αDRespectively the probability of the corresponding error; Δ S and Δ D are error amounts. Equations 2 and 3 are the transmission error model.
In addition, the transmission of data packets may also be delayed, expressed mathematically as
P (t + x) ═ P (t),1 ≦ x ≦ τ (equation 5)
Wherein tau is the total delay step number; x is an integer between 1 and tau. Equation 5 is the propagation delay model. The actual delay phenomenon is caused by channel congestion. In performing a simulation of a simple network, τ can be generated by equation 6:
τ ═ -int (θ - β) Δ T (equation 6)
Wherein β is the probability of generating a delay; Δ T is a delay amount set in advance.
Simulating the operation of the information network, and emptying information packets in the network. And generating a plurality of downlink data packets at each monitoring host node and a plurality of uplink data packets at each measurement type IED node, wherein the initial time t is 0. Each packet updates its state once every time step. The time step taken for each packet to reach the destination node is recorded by the variable k. When all the data packets reach the destination node, the secondary simulation is finished.
In step S4, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the generation of the data packet marks the initiation of the task. The uplink task corresponds to the realization of the measurement type IED function, the downlink task corresponds to the realization of the action type IED function, and the following three conditions are simultaneously met when one task is judged to be completed: (1) correct valid information S is transmitted; (2) the correct destination node D is reached; (3) the time step k passed by the transmission is within the allowable range.
Assuming that a certain task A corresponds to a certain IED function f, in N times of network operation simulation, the failure probability y of the function ffIs defined as
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the total number of the tasks A in the ith simulation is initiated;
is the total number of completions of task A in the ith simulation.
In step S5, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
for an IED function f, its value VfMay be measured by the impact on the physical layer grid when the function fails. The specific indexes can adopt reliability indexes of the power system, such as expected energy shortage (EENS) and loss loadProbability (LOLP), etc. The value of function f is defined in the present invention as the EENS value of the power system when f fails is considered.
The risk indicator R of the secondary system is defined as
R＝∑ΥfVf(formula 8)
Wherein the summation symbol represents risk integration for all IED functions in the system.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
on the basis of the conventional secondary system risk assessment method, the invention mainly takes the influence of dynamic transmission of an information system into consideration, and provides a risk index calculation method based on the functional failure probability. Compared with the traditional method, the method has better expansibility, stronger adaptability and higher practicability.
Detailed Description
The power secondary system risk assessment method considering information system connection and transmission specifically comprises the following steps:
and step S1, abstracting information system elements in the secondary system to generate an information network topology. And setting the network operation simulation times N.
And step S2, sampling the state of the related elements by using the reliability parameters, removing the fault part in the information network topology, and updating the information network topology.
And step S3, simulating the operation of the information network according to the routing strategy and the data packet transmission model. If the network running times reach N, the step S4 is carried out; otherwise, the process returns to step S2.
And step S4, counting the completion conditions of the uplink task and the downlink task in the network, and calculating the failure probability of the related IED function.
And step S5, calculating a risk index of the secondary system according to the value index and the failure probability of the IED function.
In step S1, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the information system elements include a monitoring host, a switch, an Intelligent Electronic Device (IED), and a communication line. The IEDs are classified into an action type IED and a measurement type IED.
The information system element is abstracted to generate an information network topology, specifically: the supervisory host, switches and IEDs are abstracted as nodes and the communication lines are abstracted as edges. Wherein, the edge between the action type IED and the switch points to the former from the latter, the edge between the measurement type IED and the switch points to the latter from the former, and the rest edges are bidirectional. The direction of the edge represents the direction of information transfer.
In step S2, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the reliability parameters of the related elements include Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), Mean Time To Repair (MTTR). The state of the element is sampled using the monte carlo method, with 0 representing normal and 1 representing fault. The failed element is removed from the network topology. Only itself needs to be removed for an edge; for a node to remove itself, it also removes the edges that it connects to.
In step S3, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the routing strategy can be made according to actual requirements, such as shortest path routing.
Regarding the operation of the information network, the following assumptions are made:
(7) each node can transmit data packets to the adjacent nodes and receive the data packets from the adjacent nodes in each time step;
(8) each node can process C data packets at most in each time step;
(9) each node transmits data packets in sequence based on a first-in first-out (FIFO) principle;
(10) the packet queues at each node may be infinitely long;
(11) the data packet automatically disappears from the network when reaching the destination node;
(12) the monitoring host can generate a data packet, and a destination node of the data packet is an action type IED; the measurement IED can generate a data packet, and the destination node of the data packet is the monitoring host.
With respect to the packet transmission model, assuming that a packet P is transmitted to node m at time t +1 (t is an integer) and the destination node is D, the packet P can be represented as
P (t) ═ P (S, D, m, k) (formula 1)
Wherein, S is valid information (such as electrical quantity or control command) of the data packet P, and can be represented by binary code; D. m represents the address of the corresponding node in addition to the node; k is the number of time steps that have elapsed since the generation of the packet.
The contents of S and D may be erroneous every time step passes, and m and k are automatically updated. Specifically, from time t to t +1, there are
S′＝S-int(θ-αS) Δ S (formula 2)
D′＝D-int(θ-αD) Δ D (formula 3)
k' ═ k +1 (equation 4)
Wherein θ ═ rand (0,1) is a random number between 0 and 1; int is a rounding function; alpha is alphaS、αDRespectively the probability of the corresponding error; Δ S and Δ D are error amounts. Equations 2 and 3 are the transmission error model.
In addition, the transmission of data packets may also be delayed, expressed mathematically as
P (t + x) ═ P (t),1 ≦ x ≦ τ (equation 5)
Wherein tau is the total delay step number; x is an integer between 1 and tau. Equation 5 is the propagation delay model. The actual delay phenomenon is caused by channel congestion. In performing a simulation of a simple network, τ can be generated by equation 6:
τ ═ -int (θ - β) Δ T (equation 6)
Wherein β is the probability of generating a delay; Δ T is a delay amount set in advance.
Simulating the operation of the information network, and emptying information packets in the network. And generating a plurality of downlink data packets at each monitoring host node and a plurality of uplink data packets at each measurement type IED node, wherein the initial time t is 0. Each packet updates its state once every time step. The time step taken for each packet to reach the destination node is recorded by the variable k. When all the data packets reach the destination node, the secondary simulation is finished.
In step S4, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the generation of the data packet marks the initiation of the task. The uplink task corresponds to the realization of the measurement type IED function, the downlink task corresponds to the realization of the action type IED function, and the following three conditions are simultaneously met when one task is judged to be completed: (1) correct valid information S is transmitted; (2) the correct destination node D is reached; (3) the time step k passed by the transmission is within the allowable range.
Assuming that a certain task A corresponds to a certain IED function f, in N times of network operation simulation, the failure probability y of the function ffIs defined as
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the total number of the tasks A in the ith simulation is initiated;
is the total number of completions of task A in the ith simulation.
In step S5, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
for an IED function f, its value VfMay be measured by the impact on the physical layer grid when the function fails. The specific indexes can adopt the reliability indexes of the power system, such as expected energy shortage (EENS), load loss probability (LOLP) and the like. The value of function f is defined in the present invention as the EENS value of the power system when f fails is considered.
The risk indicator R of the secondary system is defined as
R＝∑ΥfVf(formula 8)
Wherein the summation symbol represents risk integration for all IED functions in the system.
Claims (3)
1. The electric power secondary system risk assessment method considering information system connection and transmission is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step S1, abstracting information system elements in the secondary system to generate an information network topology; setting a network operation simulation number N;
step S2, sampling the state of the related elements by using the reliability parameters, removing the fault part in the information network topology, and updating the information network topology;
step S3, simulating the operation of the information network according to the routing strategy and the data packet transmission model; if the network running times reach N, the step S4 is carried out; otherwise, returning to the step S2;
step S4, counting the completion conditions of the uplink task and the downlink task in the network, and calculating the failure probability of the related IED function;
step S5, calculating a risk index of the secondary system according to the value index and the failure probability of the IED function;
in step S1, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the information system elements comprise a monitoring host, a switch, intelligent electronic equipment (IED) and a communication line; the IEDs are divided into action type IEDs and measurement type IEDs;
the information system element is abstracted to generate an information network topology, specifically: abstracting a monitoring host, a switch and an IED into nodes, and abstracting a communication line into edges; wherein, the edge between the action type IED and the switch points to the former from the latter, the edge between the measurement type IED and the switch points to the latter from the former, and the rest edges are bidirectional; the direction of the edge represents the direction of information transmission;
in step S2, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the reliability parameters of the related elements comprise Mean Time To Failure (MTTF), Mean Time To Repair (MTTR); sampling the state of the element by adopting a Monte Carlo method, wherein 0 represents normal and 1 represents fault; removing the failed element from the network topology; only itself needs to be removed for an edge; for a node, removing the node and removing edges connected with the node;
in step S3, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the routing strategy can be formulated according to actual requirements;
regarding the operation of the information network, the following assumptions are made:
(1) each node can transmit data packets to the adjacent nodes and receive the data packets from the adjacent nodes in each time step;
(2) each node can process C data packets at most in each time step;
(3) each node transmits data packets in sequence based on a first-in first-out (FIFO) principle;
(4) the packet queues at each node may be infinitely long;
(5) the data packet automatically disappears from the network when reaching the destination node;
(6) the monitoring host can generate a data packet, and a destination node of the data packet is an action type IED; the measurement IED can generate a data packet, and a destination node of the data packet is a monitoring host;
regarding the data packet transmission model, suppose that a data packet P is transmitted to a node m at time t +1, where t is an integer; with destination node D, packet P can be represented as
P (t) ═ P (S, D, m, k) (formula 1)
Wherein, S is the effective information of the data packet P and can be represented by binary codes; D. m represents the address of the corresponding node in addition to the node; k is the number of time steps that have elapsed since the generation of the data packet;
every time a time step passes, the contents of S and D may generate errors, and m and k are automatically updated; specifically, from time t to t +1, there are
S′＝S-int(θ-αS) Δ S (formula 2)
D′＝D-int(θ-αD) Δ D (formula 3)
k' ═ k +1 (equation 4)
Wherein θ ═ rand (0,1) is a random number between 0 and 1; int is a rounding function; alpha is alphaS、αDRespectively the probability of the corresponding error; Δ S and Δ D are error amounts; formulas 2 and 3 are transmission error models;
in addition, the transmission of data packets may also be delayed, expressed mathematically as
P (t + x) ═ P (t),1 ≦ x ≦ τ (equation 5)
Wherein tau is the total delay step number; x is an integer between 1 and tau; equation 5 is the transmission delay model; the actual delay phenomenon is caused by channel congestion; in performing a simulation of a simple network, τ can be generated by equation 6:
τ ═ -int (θ - β) Δ T (equation 6)
Wherein β is the probability of generating a delay; Δ T is a delay amount set in advance;
simulating the operation of an information network, and emptying information packets in the network; generating a plurality of downlink data packets at each monitoring host node and a plurality of uplink data packets at each measurement type IED node at an initial time t equal to 0; updating the state of each data packet once every time a time step passes; the time step length of each data packet when reaching the destination node is recorded by a variable k; when all the data packets reach the destination node, the secondary simulation is finished.
2. The method for evaluating risk of a secondary power system in consideration of connection and transmission of an information system according to claim 1, wherein in step S4, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
the generation of the data packet marks the initiation of the task; the uplink task corresponds to the realization of the measurement type IED function, the downlink task corresponds to the realization of the action type IED function, and the following three conditions are simultaneously met when one task is judged to be completed: (1) correct valid information S is transmitted; (2) the correct destination node D is reached; (3) the time step k of transmission is within an allowable range;
assuming that a certain task A corresponds to a certain IED function f, in N times of network operation simulation, the failure probability y of the function ffIs defined as
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the total number of the tasks A in the ith simulation is initiated;
is the total number of completions of task A in the ith simulation.
3. The method for evaluating risk of a secondary power system in consideration of connection and transmission of an information system according to claim 2, wherein in step S5, the description and definition of the related contents are as follows:
for an IED function f, its value VfCan be measured by the impact on the physical layer power grid when the function fails; the specific indexes can adopt the reliability indexes of the power system, namely expected energy shortage (EENS) and load loss probability (LOLP); defining the value of the function f as an EENS value of the power system when f fails;
the risk indicator R of the secondary system is defined as
R＝∑ΥfVf(formula 8)
Wherein the summation symbol represents risk integration for all IED functions in the system.
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