CN106815770A - It is a kind of to consider abundance and security of system the methods of risk assessment of system - Google Patents

Abstract

Consider abundance and security of system the methods of risk assessment of system the present invention relates to a kind of, comprise the steps：It is determined that assessment object；Data check；The total failure intelligent scanning of static and transient state is carried out to power network；Risk assessment；Determine risk assessment index.The technical scheme that the present invention is provided realizes static risk assessment and the assessment of the dynamic risk based on transient stability based on static security analysis, make analysis and assessment more comprehensive, and provide the user easily mode of operation and form displaying, predominantly power system operating mode, planning, scheduling, the service of Guo Wang safe masses supervisory department.

Description

It is a kind of to consider abundance and security of system the methods of risk assessment of system

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of analysis method for reliability of bulk power grid security fields, and in particular to it is abundance that one kind considers system Methods of risk assessment with security of system analyses method.

Background technology

The probability characteristics of its behavior that has its source in of power system risk.The random fault of devices in system often exceeds manpower institute energy The scope of control, load is also constantly present uncertainty, thus can not possibly be to its Accurate Prediction.What electric power system fault was caused Consequence may cause from local up to the power failure of large area.The economic consequences of power failure is more than the revenue losses of company or stopping for user Electric loss, and including causing the indirect loss of society and ambient influnence.Utilities Electric Co. is always in long-term and unremitting ground processing system wind Dangerous problem.For example, belonging to deterministic criterion and method, its advantage using Static security assessment for many years in power industry It is clear concept, index is directly perceived, calculate simple, has obtained being widely recognized as systems organization and operations staff.But this determination The major defect of property criterion is the uncertain factor that can not reflect in system operation, the randomness of such as load variations and element fault, It is difficult to the operation risk of sign system；In addition, the selection of forecast failure collection depends on the experience of operations staff, both there may be and put The situation of the big consequential event influence of big small probability, it is also possible to exist and not enough feelings are considered to the accumulative effect of medium major accident Condition；In addition, the index of Static security assessment is checked and analyzed only for system state amount, lack and characterize systematic entirety energy Overall objective.Therefore need introduce Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System theory for operations staff provide be based on risk decision-making technique come Improve the level of security of power network, it is ensured that systematic economy, reliability service.

The content of the invention

It is to solve above-mentioned deficiency of the prior art, considers that system is abundance and system peace it is an object of the invention to provide one kind The methods of risk assessment analysis method of full property, the method achieve the static risk assessment based on static security analysis, steady based on transient state Fixed dynamic risk assessment.According to the property that system mode in risk assessment processes is analyzed, Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System can be distinguished It is two aspects of system abundance (static state) and security of system (dynamic).

The purpose of the present invention is realized using following technical proposals：

Present invention offer is a kind of to consider abundance and security of system the methods of risk assessment of system, and it is theed improvement is that, Methods described comprises the steps：

1) assessment object is determined；

2) data check；

3) the total failure intelligent scanning of static and transient state is carried out to power network；

4) risk assessment；

5) risk assessment index is determined.

Further, the step 1) in, assessment object includes：

(1) actual operating data of power network：Data form based on Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP；

(2) reliability data：Reliability data refers to the parameter in element outage model；What the reliability data was derived from 《Electric reliability index news conference meeting material》With《State Grid Corporation of China's relay protection is united with automatic safety device ruuning situation Meter analysis》Report；According to《Power transformating and supplying facility reliability evaluation code》In to each relevant equipment, (each relevant equipment includes exchanging Line, transformer, bus) dependability parameter definition and computing formula, to statistics through pretreatment, obtain element The average statistics data of fault rate and repair rate index.

Further, the step 2) data check include：Trend meter based on Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP Calculation program and transient stability computation program verify the integrality of the data of importing and the uniformity of electric network data model；Call The flow calculation program and transient stability computation program of Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP be calculating the data of importing It is no to calculate successfully, i.e., whether power flow solutions or temporarily steady result of calculation are successfully exported, if calculated successfully, data just meet The condition of Risk Calculation；Conversely, not meeting, it is necessary to reaffirm whether data source is complete.

Further, the step 3) the total failure intelligent scanning that static and transient state is carried out to power network comprise the steps：

<1>Create scan mode and failure is set, including：

A, static scanning are calculated：The N-1 calculating and excision that selection carries out the whole network, certain regional power grid or certain voltage class power network refer to N-1 when determining element is calculated, and considers that parallel lines on same tower carries out fault scanning；Calculating task define scheme (scheme or Calculating principle is, for example：N-1 principles, parallel lines on same tower principle etc.) or several schemes are defined simultaneously, a scheme includes handing over Some elements in streamline, transformer, generator；

B, dynamic scan are calculated：The dynamic fault of batch setting the whole network, carries out the transient stability batch checking of the whole network, and according to electricity Press the division of grade and different zones that failure is set；

<2>Realize that the static scanning to setting and dynamic scan scan mode are scanned：

After being set according to above-mentioned scan mode and failure, static security analysis calculating is carried out respectively；Safety analysis is in operation Network or a certain research state under network, by N-1 principles (or other principles), operating element hinders exit for some reason one by one for research After operation, the security situation and margin of safety of network；Static security analysis are research element whether there is overload, busbar voltage whether there is more Limit and branch road whether there is overload situations；

Batch calls temporary steady stability Calculation program to realize that (power system refers to steadily temporarily that power system is subject to surely for fault scanning calculating After big interference, each synchronous generator keeps running simultaneously and being transitioned into ability that is new or returning to original steady operational status；Greatly Interference：Short trouble, unexpected open-circuit line, transformer or generator, the excision of a large amount of loads or input；

After static scanning is set, static security analysis calculating is carried out；After dynamic scan is set, carry out batch and call temporarily steady calculating journey Sequence (enumerates a failure, just carries out once temporarily steady calculating, care is compared to each temporarily steady result reservation for calculating or only reservation Object information.)

Further, the step 4) risk assessment calculate include：

<1>After the completion of static scanning (static security analysis) is calculated, carry out branch road overload and check, as out-of-limit, take corrective action, Cutting load place and cutting load amount are determined, if having island load point, if it has, calculating the mistake load of island load point；So The mistake load risk indicator of enumeration state is formed afterwards；Eventually form power system overall performane；

<2>After the completion of dynamic scan is calculated, temporarily steady result of calculation file and network failure message file are read；The dynamic of read element Dependability parameter；Then a power network topology analysis program (computing module for comparative maturity is called.Power network topology analysis are bases Whole power network, is regarded as the topological diagram that line is combined with point by the annexation of electrical equipment, then according to power junctions, switch node Analyzed etc. the topological line for carrying out whole network, it is that electricity grid network carries out state estimation, Load flow calculation, fault location, isolation And the basis of other analyses such as service restoration, network reconfiguration), isolated point information on load caused by generation failure change in topology, afterwards Dynamic reliability calculation program is called, the destination file of risk assessment index is generated.

Dynamic reliability assesses calculation procedure：Major function is probability (equipment probability, the thing in itself that bonding apparatus break down Therefore probability, the probability of protection, the probability of switch) and failure mistake load do multiplying.

In further, it is characterised in that the step 5), risk assessment index includes：Static abundance risk assessment refers to Mark and dynamic security risk assessment index；The static abundance risk assessment index and dynamic security risk assessment index are equal Including degree class index, level class index and time limit class index；

The time limit class index of the dynamic security risk assessment index includes short run target and long-term objective；The short run target Time frame is hour level；Long-term objective includes day index, moon index and year index.

Further, the degree class index of the static abundance risk assessment index is quantify bulk power system degree of risk one Class index, description Branch Power Flow overload, busbar voltage it is out-of-limit operation security constraints meet situation and caused cutting load after Really, including：

1. branch road overloads class index：

Circuit overload index LPO, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, i represents power system failure state, p_iIt is power system failure state_iThe probability of generation, L_iIt is that power system is lost The actual current of circuit, L are overloaded under effect state i_imaxIt is the current settings higher limit for overloading circuit, Slpo is all to cause electric power There is the set of the POWER SYSTEM STATE of circuit overload situation in system, and circuit overload index LPO represents that power system occurs circuit mistake Carry the size of risk；

Transformer overload index BPO, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, i represents one failure state of system, W_iIt is the actual apparent energy that transformer is overloaded under power system failure state i, W_imaxIt is the apparent energy setting higher limit for overloading transformer, Sbpo is all power system to be caused transformer overload situation occur System mode set, transformer overload index BPO represent power system occur transformer overload risk size；

2. voltage out-of-limit class index：

Voltage out-of-limit index BVV, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, V_bIt is out-of-limit bus virtual voltage perunit value, V under power system failure state i_bminIt is the lower voltage limit of out-of-limit bus Perunit value, V_bmaxThe upper voltage limit perunit value of out-of-limit bus, Sbvv be it is all can cause to occur the busbar voltage more upper limit or more under Limit the set of POWER SYSTEM STATE；Voltage out-of-limit index BVV represents that system occurs the risk size of voltage out-of-limit；I, represent Power system failure state；

Over High-Limit Voltage index BHVV, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, Sbhvv is the set of all POWER SYSTEM STATEs that can cause and busbar voltage more upper limit case occur；Over High-Limit Voltage Index BHVV represents that power system occurs the risk size of Over High-Limit Voltage；

Voltage gets over lower limit BLVV, and expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, Sblvv is all set that can cause and the busbar voltage more POWER SYSTEM STATE of lower limit situation occur；Voltage gets over lower limit Index BLVV represents that power system occurs the risk size of voltage more lower limit；

3. load class index is lost：

Load-loss probability LOLP indexs, dimensionless, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, S is the set of all POWER SYSTEM STATEs that can cause and lose load, load-loss probability LOLP index expression power trains System loses the possibility size of load；

Cutting load duration LOLE indexs, unit is hour/year, and expression formula is as follows：

Cutting load duration LOLE index expressions short of electricity hourage every year on average；

Lose load and expect EDNS indexs, unit is MW, and expression formula is as follows：

Wherein：C_iIt is the cutting load power under POWER SYSTEM STATE i, unit is MW；Lose load and expect EDNS index expressions Be system expect lose load active power；

Expected energy not supplied EENS indexs, unit is MWh, and expression formula is as follows：

Expected energy not supplied EENS index expressions are that power system year is expected to lose the electricity size of load；

System cuts down electricity index BPECI, and expression formula is as follows

Wherein：L is power system annual peak load, and unit is MW；

Power system severity：Power system minute index S I, unit is min, and expression formula is as follows：

The order of severity of one power system minute representative has a power failure one point equivalent to power system load whole in power system peak load Clock；

Power supply availability SA indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Further, the level class index of the static abundance risk assessment index includes：

1. power system index：

Power system index refers to the risk indicator in the range of whole power system, and whole power system institute is determined according to corresponding index Place's risk class, provides corresponding pre-control strategy；Power system index includes branch road overload class, voltage out-of-limit class and loses load class Index, but the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is (to consider that the fault set in all regions is good out-of-limit in the range of Integrated power system Element)；Index is referring to above-mentioned (1-1)~(1-12) formulas；

2. zone index：

Zone index refers to the risk indicator in certain regional extent of definition, and risk residing for the region is determined according to corresponding index Grade, the different zones to power system carry out the contrast sequence of risk indicator；Zone index is identical with power system index, but The selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element be in the range of one's respective area (for example：There are three regions (area1, area2 in system Area3), it is desirable to consider the index of region area1, then we can only set the fault set in the range of the area1 of this region and get over Limit element, the failure in other regions and out-of-limit element do not consider), index is referring to above-mentioned (1-1)~(1-12) formulas；

3. load point index：

Load point index refers to the power supply reliability index that the load point is judged for some load point；Assessment load point is powered The index of risk includes：

Load point a cutting load probability LOLP_aIndex, dimensionless, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, p_iIt is the probability of power system failure state i generations, S_aIt is all power trains that load point a can be caused to lose load The set of system state, load point a cutting load probability LOLP_aIndex expression load point a loses the possibility size of load；A represents negative Lotus point；

Load point a cutting loads expect LOLE_aIndex, unit is hour/year, and expression formula is as follows：

Load point a cutting loads expect LOLE_aIndex expression load point a short of electricity hourages every year on average；

Load point a expects to lack for power EDNS_aIndex, unit is MW, and expression formula is as follows：

C_iIt is the load point a cutting load power under power system failure state i, unit is MW, and load point a expectations are scarce to supply work( Rate EDNS_aLoad active power is lost in the expectation of index expression load point a；

Expect to lack delivery EENS_aIndex, unit is MWh, and expression formula is as follows：

Expect to lack delivery EENS_aIndex expression be load point a year expect lose load electricity size；

4. event index：

Event index is to evaluate the index of each malfunction risk size, and its computing formula is as follows：

Risk (X)=P (X) Sev (X) (1-17)

In formula, Risk (X) represents event index, and X represents some malfunction of power network；P (X) represents that malfunction occurs Probability；Sev (X) represents the order of severity of power system after malfunction generation.

Further, the time limit class index of the static abundance risk assessment index includes short run target and long-term objective；In short term The time frame of index is hour level；Long-term objective includes day index, moon index and year index；Time limit class index is time chi Degree is different (be just as with Static State Index analytical formula, but be the data at different section (time point)).

Further, the degree class index of the dynamic security risk assessment index includes：

1. unstability risk class index：

Failure probability PLOS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Generator rotor angle failure probability PLOPAS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Voltage instability probability PLOVS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Frequency failure probability PLOFS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

2. dynamic loses load risk class index：

The unacceptable running status probability P NAOS indexs of system, expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic cutting load probability P DLC indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic cutting load duration EDDLC index, unit is h/a, and expression formula is as follows：

EDDLC=PDLC × T (1-24)

T represents the time；

Dynamic cutting load desired value EDLC indexs, unit is MW/a, and expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic expected loss of energy EDENS indexs, unit is MWh/a, and expression formula is as follows：

Further, the level class index of the dynamic security risk assessment index includes：

1. power system index：

Power system index refers to the risk indicator in the range of whole power system, and whole power system institute is determined according to corresponding index Place's risk class, and then provide corresponding pre-control strategy；Power system evaluation index includes that unstability risk and dynamic lose load risk Two major class indexs, but the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in system-wide, index is referring to above-mentioned (1-18)~(1-26) Formula；

2. zone index：

Zone index refers to the risk indicator in certain regional extent of definition, and risk residing for the region is determined according to corresponding index Grade, the different zones to power system carry out the contrast sequence of risk indicator；Regional evaluation index is identical with power system index, But the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in the range of one's respective area, specific targets are referring to above-mentioned (1-18)~(1-26) formulas；

3. load point index：

Load point index refers to, for some load point, to judge that load point dynamically loses load index；Assessment load point is powered risk Index include：

Load point a dynamic cutting load probability Ps DLC_aIndex, expression formula is as follows：

Load point a dynamic cutting load duration EDDLC_aIndex, unit is h/a, and expression formula is as follows：

EDDLC_a=PDLC_a×T (1-28)

Load point a dynamic cutting load desired values EDLC_aIndex, unit is MW/a, and expression formula is as follows：

Load point a dynamic expected loss of energys EDENS_aIndex, unit is MWh/a, and expression formula is as follows：

I represents power system failure state；

4. event index：

Event index is to evaluate the index of each malfunction risk size, and its computing formula is as follows：

Risk (X)=P (X) × Sev (X) (1-31)

In formula, Risk (X) represents event index, and X represents some malfunction of power network；P (X) represents that malfunction occurs Probability；Sev (X) represents the unstability risk or the order of severity of dynamic mistake load risk of power system after malfunction generation. (risk of current electric grid is considered unlike being analyzed from Static State Index from different angles)

Further, the time limit class index of the dynamic security risk assessment index includes short run target and long-term objective；It is described The time frame of short run target is hour level；Long-term objective includes day index, moon index and year index.

Compared with immediate prior art, the excellent effect that the technical scheme that the present invention is provided has is：

(1) risk assessment is carried out to power network in terms of power system abundance (static state) and security of system (dynamic) two, Risk assessment to power network is more comprehensive.(2) characterized in all directions from unfailing performance, three dimensions of scope of assessment and time frame System operation risk, makes bulk power grid Risk Assessment Index System more perfect.(3) there is provided intuitively easily result bandwagon effect, Such as：Form, block diagram, bubble diagram, pie chart, curve map etc., with the upgrade version power network of Based on Power System Analysis Software Package 7.0 ground On based on reason position wiring diagram, increase the bandwagon effect of power grid risk weak link.(4) visioning procedure navigation bar, it is convenient to use Family understands system and uses flow, data inspection, fault scanning, risk assessment, result to show four pieces of function divisions clearly, user Quickly operation readiness can be realized by left-hand seat.

Brief description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is abundance (static state) the index system figure of power system that the present invention is provided；

Fig. 2 is power system security (dynamic) index system figure that the present invention is provided.

Specific embodiment

Specific embodiment of the invention is described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

The following description and drawings fully show specific embodiments of the present invention, to enable those skilled in the art to put into practice it .Other embodiments can include structure, logic, it is electric, process and it is other changes.Embodiment only generation The possible change of table.Unless explicitly requested, otherwise single component and function are optional, and the order for operating can change. The part of some embodiments and feature can be included in or replace part and the feature of other embodiments.Implementation of the invention The gamut of the scope of scheme including claims, and claims all obtainable equivalent.Herein, These embodiments of the invention can individually or generally be represented that it is convenient that this is used for the purpose of with term " invention ", and And if in fact disclosing the invention more than, the scope for being not meant to automatically limit the application is any single invention or hair Bright design.

The present invention carries out quantitative analysis to solve the uncertainty of power network, there is provided one kind considers that system is abundance and system safety Property methods of risk assessment analysis method, comprise the steps：

It is a kind of to consider abundance and security of system the methods of risk assessment analysis method of system, comprise the steps：

1) assessment object is determined；Assessment object includes：

(1) actual operating data of power network：Data form based on Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP；

(2) reliability data：Reliability data refers to the parameter in element outage model；What the reliability data was derived from 《Electric reliability index news conference meeting material》With《State Grid Corporation of China's relay protection is united with automatic safety device ruuning situation Meter analysis》Report；According to《Power transformating and supplying facility reliability evaluation code》In to each relevant equipment, (each relevant equipment includes exchanging Line, transformer, bus) dependability parameter definition and computing formula, to statistics through pretreatment, obtain element The average statistics data of fault rate and repair rate index.

2) data check；

Data check includes：Flow calculation program and multilayer output feedback network journey based on Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP Sequence verifies the integrality of the data of importing and the uniformity of electric network data model；Call Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP Flow calculation program and transient stability computation program calculate whether the data of importing can calculate successfully, i.e., it is whether successful defeated Go out power flow solutions or temporarily steady result of calculation, if calculated successfully, data just meet the condition of Risk Calculation；Conversely, do not meet, Need to reaffirm whether data source is complete.

3) the total failure intelligent scanning of static and transient state is carried out to power network；

The total failure intelligent scanning that static and transient state is carried out to power network comprises the steps：

<1>Create scan mode and failure is set, including：

A, static scanning are calculated：The N-1 calculating and excision that selection carries out the whole network, certain regional power grid or certain voltage class power network refer to N-1 when determining element is calculated, and considers that parallel lines on same tower carries out fault scanning；Calculating task define scheme (scheme or Calculating principle is, for example：N-1 principles, parallel lines on same tower principle etc.) or several schemes are defined simultaneously, a scheme includes handing over Certain element in streamline, transformer, generator or load；

B, dynamic scan are calculated：The dynamic fault of batch setting the whole network, carries out the transient stability batch checking of the whole network, and according to electricity Press the division of grade and different zones that failure is set；

<2>Realize being scanned the scan mode for setting：

After being set according to above-mentioned scan mode and failure, static security analysis calculating is carried out respectively；Safety analysis is in operation Network or a certain research state under network, by N-1 principles (or other principles), operating element hinders exit for some reason one by one for research After operation, the security situation and margin of safety of network；Static security analysis are research element whether there is overload, busbar voltage whether there is Out-of-limit and branch road whether there is overload situations；

Batch calls temporary steady stability Calculation program to realize that (power system refers to steadily temporarily that power system is subject to surely for fault scanning calculating After big interference, each synchronous generator keeps running simultaneously and being transitioned into ability that is new or returning to original steady operational status；Greatly Interference：Short trouble, unexpected open-circuit line, transformer or generator, the excision of a large amount of loads or input；

4) risk assessment；

Danger assessment calculating includes：

<1>After the completion of static scanning (static security analysis) is calculated, carry out branch road overload and check, as out-of-limit, take corrective action, Cutting load place and cutting load amount are determined, if having island load point, if it has, calculating the mistake load of island load point；So The mistake load risk indicator of enumeration state is formed afterwards；Eventually form power system overall performane；

<2>After the completion of dynamic scan is calculated, temporarily steady result of calculation file and network failure message file are read；The dynamic of read element Dependability parameter；Then a power network topology analysis program (computing module for comparative maturity is called.Power network topology analysis are bases Whole power network, is regarded as the topological diagram that line is combined with point by the annexation of electrical equipment, then according to power junctions, switch node Analyzed etc. the topological line for carrying out whole network, it is that electricity grid network carries out state estimation, Load flow calculation, fault location, isolation And the basis of other analyses such as service restoration, network reconfiguration), isolated point information on load caused by generation failure change in topology, afterwards Dynamic reliability calculation program is called, the destination file of risk assessment index is generated.

5) risk assessment index is determined：

Risk assessment index includes：Static abundance risk assessment index and dynamic security risk assessment index；The static state is filled Abundant property risk assessment index and dynamic security risk assessment index include degree class index, level class index and time limit class index.

The degree class index of static abundance risk assessment index is the class index for quantifying bulk power system degree of risk, description branch The out-of-limit operation security constraints of road trend overload, busbar voltage meet situation and caused cutting load consequence, including：

1. branch road overloads class index：

Circuit overload index LPO, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, i represents power system failure state, p_iIt is the probability of power system failure state i generations, L_iIt is that power system is lost The actual current of circuit, L are overloaded under effect state i_imaxIt is the current settings higher limit for overloading circuit, Slpo is all to cause electric power There is the set of the POWER SYSTEM STATE of circuit overload situation in system, and circuit overload index LPO represents that power system occurs circuit mistake Carry the size of risk；

Transformer overload index BPO, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, Sbpo is the set of all system modes that power system can be caused transformer overload situation occur, transformer overload Index BPO represents that power system occurs the risk size of transformer overload；

2. voltage out-of-limit class index：

Voltage out-of-limit index BVV, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, Sbvv is all to cause the busbar voltage more upper limit or the more set of lower limit POWER SYSTEM STATE occur；Voltage out-of-limit refers to Mark BVV represents that system occurs the risk size of voltage out-of-limit；

Over High-Limit Voltage index BHVV, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, V_bIt is out-of-limit bus virtual voltage perunit value, V under power system failure state i_bminIt is the lower voltage limit of out-of-limit bus Perunit value, V_bmaxIt is the upper voltage limit perunit value of out-of-limit bus, Sbhvv is all to cause busbar voltage more upper limit case occur The set of POWER SYSTEM STATE；Over High-Limit Voltage index BHVV represents that power system occurs the risk size of Over High-Limit Voltage；

Voltage gets over lower limit BLVV, and expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, Sblvv is all set that can cause and the busbar voltage more POWER SYSTEM STATE of lower limit situation occur；Voltage gets over lower limit Index BLVV represents that power system occurs the risk size of voltage more lower limit；

3. load class index is lost：

Load-loss probability LOLP indexs, dimensionless, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, S is the set of all POWER SYSTEM STATEs that can cause and lose load, load-loss probability LOLP index expression power trains System loses the possibility size of load；

Cutting load duration LOLE indexs, unit is hour/year, and expression formula is as follows：

Cutting load duration LOLE index expressions short of electricity hourage every year on average；

Lose load and expect EDNS indexs, unit is MW, and expression formula is as follows：

Wherein：C_iIt is the cutting load power under POWER SYSTEM STATE i, unit is MW；Lose load and expect EDNS index expressions Be system expect lose load active power；

Expected energy not supplied EENS indexs, unit is MWh, and expression formula is as follows：

Expected energy not supplied EENS index expressions are that power system year is expected to lose the electricity size of load；

System cuts down electricity index BPECI, and expression formula is as follows

Wherein：L is power system annual peak load, and unit is MW；

Power system severity：Power system minute index S I, unit is min, and expression formula is as follows：

The order of severity of one power system minute representative has a power failure one point equivalent to power system load whole in power system peak load Clock；

Power supply availability SA indexs, expression formula is as follows：

The level class index system figure of static abundance risk assessment index as shown in figure 1, including：

1. power system index：

Power system index refers to the risk indicator in the range of whole power system, and whole power system institute is determined according to corresponding index Place's risk class, provides corresponding pre-control strategy；Power system index includes branch road overload class, voltage out-of-limit class and loses load class Index, but the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is in the range of Integrated power system；Index is referring to above-mentioned (1-1)~(1-12) Formula；

2. zone index：

Zone index refers to the risk indicator in certain regional extent of definition, and risk residing for the region is determined according to corresponding index Grade, the different zones to power system carry out the contrast sequence of risk indicator；Zone index is identical with power system index, but The selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in the range of one's respective area, index is referring to above-mentioned (1-1)~(1-12) formulas；

3. load point index：

Load point index refers to the power supply reliability index that the load point is judged for some load point；Assessment load point is powered The index of risk includes：

Load point a cutting load probability LOLP_aIndex, dimensionless, expression formula is as follows：

Wherein, p_iIt is the probability of power system failure state i generations, S_aIt is all power trains that load point a can be caused to lose load The set of system state, load point a cutting load probability LOLP_aIndex expression load point a loses the possibility size of load；A represents negative Lotus point；

Load point a cutting loads expect LOLE_aIndex, unit is hour/year, and expression formula is as follows：

Load point a cutting loads expect LOLE_aIndex expression load point a short of electricity hourages every year on average；

Load point a expects to lack for power EDNS_aIndex, unit is MW, and expression formula is as follows：

C_iIt is the load point a cutting load power under power system failure state i, unit is MW, and load point a expectations are scarce to supply work( Rate EDNS_aLoad active power is lost in the expectation of index expression load point a；

Expect to lack delivery EENS_aIndex, unit is MWh, and expression formula is as follows：

Expect to lack delivery EENS_aIndex expression be load point a year expect lose load electricity size；

4. event index：

Event index is to evaluate the index of each malfunction risk size, and its computing formula is as follows：

Risk (X)=P (X) Sev (X) (1-17)

In formula, Risk (X) represents event index, and X represents some malfunction of power network；P (X) represents that malfunction occurs Probability；Sev (X) represents the order of severity of power system after malfunction generation.

The time limit class index of static abundance risk assessment index includes short run target and long-term objective；The time frame of short run target is Hour level；Long-term objective includes day index, moon index and year index；Time limit class index is different time scale, specific to calculate Index is ibid.

The degree class index system figure of dynamic security risk assessment index as shown in Fig. 2 including：

1. unstability risk class index：

Failure probability PLOS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Generator rotor angle failure probability PLOPAS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Voltage instability probability PLOVS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Frequency failure probability PLOFS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

2. dynamic loses load risk class index：

The unacceptable running status probability P NAOS indexs of system, expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic cutting load probability P DLC indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic cutting load duration EDDLC index, unit is h/a, and expression formula is as follows：

EDDLC=PDLC × T (1-24)

T represents the time；

Dynamic cutting load desired value EDLC indexs, unit is MW/a, and expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic expected loss of energy EDENS indexs, unit is MWh/a, and expression formula is as follows：

The level class index of dynamic security risk assessment index includes：

1. power system index：

Power system index refers to the risk indicator in the range of whole power system, and whole power system institute is determined according to corresponding index Place's risk class, and then provide corresponding pre-control strategy；Power system evaluation index includes that unstability risk and dynamic lose load risk Two major class indexs, but the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in system-wide, index is referring to above-mentioned (1-18)~(1-26) Formula；

2. zone index：

Zone index refers to the risk indicator in certain regional extent of definition, and risk residing for the region is determined according to corresponding index Grade, the different zones to power system carry out the contrast sequence of risk indicator；Regional evaluation index is identical with power system index, But the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in the range of one's respective area, specific targets are referring to above-mentioned (1-18)~(1-26) formulas；

3. load point index：

Load point index refers to, for some load point, to judge that load point dynamically loses load index；Assessment load point is powered risk Index include：

Load point a dynamic cutting load probability Ps DLC_aIndex, expression formula is as follows：

Load point a dynamic cutting load duration EDDLC_aIndex, unit is h/a, and expression formula is as follows：

EDDLC_a=PDLC_a×T (1-28)

Load point a dynamic cutting load desired values EDLC_aIndex, unit is MW/a, and expression formula is as follows：

Load point a dynamic expected loss of energys EDENS_aIndex, unit is MWh/a, and expression formula is as follows：

4. event index：

Event index is to evaluate the index of each malfunction risk size, and its computing formula is as follows：

Risk (X)=P (X) Sev (X) (1-31)

In formula, Risk (X) represents event index, and X represents some malfunction of power network；P (X) represents that malfunction occurs Probability；Sev (X) represents the unstability risk or the order of severity of dynamic mistake load risk of power system after malfunction generation.

The time limit class index of dynamic security risk assessment index includes short run target and long-term objective；The time of the short run target Framework is hour level；Long-term objective includes day index, moon index and year index.

The a kind of of present invention offer considers abundance and security of system the methods of risk assessment analysis method of system, the method reality The static risk assessment based on static security analysis is showed, the dynamic risk assessment based on transient stability.According to risk assessment processes The property of middle system mode analysis, by Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System can divide into system abundance (static state) and security of system (is moved State) two aspects.Whether static risk index reflection power system facility can fully meet the workload demand and system operation of user Constraints, therefore static scanning relates only to the limit of system, without requiring dynamic and transient analysis；Dynamic risk Index then reflects system to dynamic and the responding ability of transient disturbance, thus dynamic scan will to the disturbance that occurs in system and thereafter Fruit is evaluated.The system carries out risk-assessment from two angles to network system, is more comprehensive analysis and assessment, and give User provides easily mode of operation and form shows, predominantly power system operating mode, planning, scheduling, state's net safe mass Supervisory department services.

The above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention rather than its limitations, although with reference to above-described embodiment to the present invention Be described in detail, those of ordinary skill in the art specific embodiment of the invention can still be modified or Person's equivalent, these are applying for this pending hair without departing from any modification of spirit and scope of the invention or equivalent Within bright claims.

Claims (11)

1. it is a kind of to consider abundance and security of system the methods of risk assessment of system, it is characterised in that methods described includes Following step：

1) assessment object is determined；

2) data check；

3) the total failure intelligent scanning of static and transient state is carried out to power network；

4) risk assessment；

5) risk assessment index is determined.

2. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step 1) in, assessment object includes：

(1) actual operating data of power network：Data form based on Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP；

(2) reliability data：Reliability data refers to the parameter in element outage model；What the reliability data was derived from 《Electric reliability index news conference meeting material》With《State Grid Corporation of China's relay protection is united with automatic safety device ruuning situation Meter analysis》Report；According to《Power transformating and supplying facility reliability evaluation code》In to the definition of each dependability parameter about equipment and Computing formula, to statistics by pre-processing, obtains the fault rate of element and the average statistics data of repair rate index.

3. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step 2) data check include：Base The data of importing are verified in the flow calculation program and transient stability computation program of Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP Integrality and electric network data model uniformity；Call the flow calculation program of Based on Power System Analysis Software Package PSASP with And transient stability computation program calculates whether the data of importing can calculate successfully, i.e. whether successfully output power flow solutions or temporarily steady Result of calculation, if calculated successfully, data just meet the condition of Risk Calculation；Conversely, not meeting, it is necessary to reaffirm number It is whether complete according to source.

4. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step 3) power network is carried out it is static and The total failure intelligent scanning of transient state comprises the steps：

<1>Create scan mode and failure is set, including：

A, static scanning are calculated：The N-1 calculating and excision that selection carries out the whole network, certain regional power grid or certain voltage class power network refer to N-1 when determining element is calculated, and considers that parallel lines on same tower carries out fault scanning；Calculating task defines a scheme or simultaneously fixed The several schemes of justice a, scheme includes some elements in AC line, transformer, generator；

B, dynamic scan are calculated：The dynamic fault of batch setting the whole network, carries out the transient stability batch checking of the whole network, and according to electricity Press the division of grade and different zones that failure is set；

<2>Realize that the static scanning to setting and dynamic scan scan mode are scanned：

After being set according to above-mentioned scan mode and failure, static security analysis calculating is carried out respectively；Safety analysis is in operation Network or a certain research state under network, by N-1 principles, research one by one operating element hinder for some reason it is out of service after, network Security situation and margin of safety；Static security analysis are research element whether there is overload, busbar voltage and whether there is out-of-limit and branch road whether there is Overload situations and batch call temporary steady stability Calculation program to realize fault scanning calculating；Big interference：Short trouble, disconnects suddenly Circuit, transformer or generator, the excision of a large amount of loads or input；

After static scanning is set, static security analysis calculating is carried out；After dynamic scan is set, carry out batch and call temporarily steady calculating journey Sequence.

5. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step 4) risk assessment calculate and include：

<1>After the completion of static scanning is calculated, carry out branch road overload and check, as out-of-limit, take corrective action, determine cutting load place With cutting load amount, if there is island load point, if it has, calculating the mistake load of island load point；Then enumeration state is formed Mistake load risk indicator；Eventually form power system overall performane；

<2>After the completion of dynamic scan is calculated, temporarily steady result of calculation file and network failure message file are read；The dynamic of read element Dependability parameter；Then power network topology analysis program is called, isolated point information on load caused by failure change in topology is generated, afterwards Dynamic reliability calculation program is called, the destination file of risk assessment index is generated；

Dynamic reliability assesses calculation procedure：Major function is that the probability that bonding apparatus break down and failure are lost load and multiplied to do Method computing.

6. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the step 5) in, risk assessment index bag Include：Static abundance risk assessment index and dynamic security risk assessment index；The static abundance risk assessment index and Dynamic security risk assessment index includes degree class index, level class index and time limit class index；

The time limit class index of the dynamic security risk assessment index includes short run target and long-term objective；The short run target Time frame is hour level；Long-term objective includes day index, moon index and year index.

7. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the journey of the static abundance risk assessment index Degree class index is the class index for quantifying bulk power system degree of risk, the out-of-limit operation peace of description Branch Power Flow overload, busbar voltage Staff cultivation condition meets situation and caused cutting load consequence, including：

1. branch road overloads class index：

Circuit overload index LPO, expression formula is as follows：

$LPO=\underset{i\&Element;Slpo}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i(L_i-L_{imax})---(1-1)$

Wherein, i represents one failure state of system, p_iIt is power system failure state_iThe probability of generation, L_iIt is that power system is lost The actual current of circuit, L are overloaded under effect state i_imaxIt is the current settings higher limit for overloading circuit, Slpo is all to cause electric power There is the set of the POWER SYSTEM STATE of circuit overload situation in system, and circuit overload index LPO represents that power system occurs circuit mistake Carry the size of risk；

Transformer overload index BPO, expression formula is as follows：

$BPO=\underset{i\&Element;Sbpo}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i(W_i-W_{imax})---(1-2)$

Wherein, i represents one failure state of system, W_iIt is the actual apparent energy that transformer is overloaded under power system failure state i, W_imaxIt is the apparent energy setting higher limit for overloading transformer, Sbpo is all power system to be caused transformer overload situation occur System mode set, transformer overload index BPO represent power system occur transformer overload risk size；

2. voltage out-of-limit class index：

Voltage out-of-limit index BVV, expression formula is as follows：

$BVV=\underset{i\&Element;Sbvv}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i|V_b-V_{bmin\left(bmax\right)}|---(1-3)$

Wherein, V_bIt is out-of-limit bus virtual voltage perunit value, V under power system failure state i_bminIt is the lower voltage limit of out-of-limit bus Perunit value, V_bmaxThe upper voltage limit perunit value of out-of-limit bus, Sbvv be it is all can cause to occur the busbar voltage more upper limit or more under Limit the set of POWER SYSTEM STATE；Voltage out-of-limit index BVV represents that system occurs the risk size of voltage out-of-limit；I, represent Power system failure state；

Over High-Limit Voltage index BHVV, expression formula is as follows：

$BHVV=\underset{i\&Element;Sbhvv}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i(V_b-V_{bmax})---(1-4)$

Wherein, Sbhvv is the set of all POWER SYSTEM STATEs that can cause and busbar voltage more upper limit case occur；Over High-Limit Voltage Index BHVV represents that power system occurs the risk size of Over High-Limit Voltage；

Voltage gets over lower limit BLVV, and expression formula is as follows：

$BLVV=\underset{i\&Element;Sblvv}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i(V_{bmin}-V_b)---(1-5)$

Wherein, Sblvv is all set that can cause and the busbar voltage more POWER SYSTEM STATE of lower limit situation occur；Voltage gets over lower limit Index BLVV represents that power system occurs the risk size of voltage more lower limit；

3. load class index is lost：

Load-loss probability LOLP indexs, dimensionless, expression formula is as follows：

$LOLP=\underset{i\&Element;S}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i---(1-6)$

Wherein, S is the set of all POWER SYSTEM STATEs that can cause and lose load, load-loss probability LOLP index expression power trains System loses the possibility size of load；

Cutting load duration LOLE indexs, unit is hour/year, and expression formula is as follows：

$LOLE=8760\&times;\underset{i\&Element;S}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i---(1-7)$

Cutting load duration LOLE index expressions short of electricity hourage every year on average；

Lose load and expect EDNS indexs, unit is MW, and expression formula is as follows：

$EDNS=\underset{i\&Element;S}{\&Sigma;}{C}_i{p}_i---(1-8)$

Wherein：C_iIt is the cutting load power under POWER SYSTEM STATE i, unit is MW；Lose load and expect EDNS index expressions Be system expect lose load active power；

Expected energy not supplied EENS indexs, unit is MWh, and expression formula is as follows：

$EENS=\underset{i\&Element;S}{\&Sigma;}8760C_i{p}_i---(1-9)$

Expected energy not supplied EENS index expressions are that power system year is expected to lose the electricity size of load；

System cuts down electricity index BPECI, and expression formula is as follows

$BPECI=\frac{EENS}{L}---(1-10)$

Wherein：L is power system annual peak load, and unit is MW；

Power system severity：Power system minute index S I, unit is min, and expression formula is as follows：

$SI=\frac{EENS}{L}\&times;60---(1-11)$

The order of severity of one power system minute representative has a power failure one point equivalent to power system load whole in power system peak load Clock；

Power supply availability SA indexs, expression formula is as follows：

$SA=1-\frac{EDNS}{L}---(1-12).$

8. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the layer of the static abundance risk assessment index Secondary class index includes：

1. power system index：

Power system index refers to the risk indicator in the range of whole power system, and whole power system institute is determined according to corresponding index Place's risk class, provides corresponding pre-control strategy；Power system index includes branch road overload class, voltage out-of-limit class and loses load class Index, but the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is in the range of Integrated power system；Index is referring to above-mentioned (1-1)~(1-12) Formula；

2. zone index：

Zone index refers to the risk indicator in certain regional extent of definition, and risk residing for the region is determined according to corresponding index Grade, the different zones to power system carry out the contrast sequence of risk indicator；Zone index is identical with power system index, but The selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in the range of one's respective area, index is referring to above-mentioned (1-1)~(1-12) formulas；

3. load point index：

Load point index refers to the power supply reliability index that the load point is judged for some load point；Assessment load point is powered The index of risk includes：

Load point a cutting load probability LOLP_aIndex, dimensionless, expression formula is as follows：

${\mathrm{LOLP}}_a=\underset{i\&Element;S_a}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i---(1-13)$

Wherein, p_iIt is power system failure state_iThe probability of generation, S_aIt is all power trains that load point a can be caused to lose load The set of system state, load point a cutting load probability LOLP_aIndex expression load point a loses the possibility size of load；A represents negative Lotus point；

Load point a cutting loads expect LOLE_aIndex, unit is hour/year, and expression formula is as follows：

${\mathrm{LOLE}}_a=8760\&times;\underset{i\&Element;S_a}{\&Sigma;}{p}_i---(1-14)$

Load point a cutting loads expect LOLE_aIndex expression load point a short of electricity hourages every year on average；

Load point a expects to lack for power EDNS_aIndex, unit is MW, and expression formula is as follows：

${\mathrm{EDNS}}_a=\underset{i\&Element;S_a}{\&Sigma;}{C}_i{p}_i---(1-15)$

C_iIt is the load point a cutting load power under power system failure state i, unit is MW, and load point a expectations are scarce to supply work( Rate EDNS_aLoad active power is lost in the expectation of index expression load point a；

Expect to lack delivery EENS_aIndex, unit is MWh, and expression formula is as follows：

${\mathrm{EENS}}_a=\underset{i\&Element;S_a}{\&Sigma;}8760C_i{p}_i---(1-16)$

Expect to lack delivery EENS_aIndex expression be load point a year expect lose load electricity size；

4. event index：

Event index is to evaluate the index of each malfunction risk size, and its computing formula is as follows：

Risk (X)=P (X) Sev (X) (1-17)

In formula, Risk (X) represents event index, and X represents some malfunction of power network；P (X) represents that malfunction occurs Probability；Sev (X) represents the order of severity of power system after malfunction generation.

9. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the static abundance risk assessment index when Limit class index includes short run target and long-term objective；The time frame of short run target is hour level；Long-term objective include day index, Month index and year index；Time limit class index is different time scale.

10. methods of risk assessment as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the dynamic security risk assessment index Degree class index includes：

1. unstability risk class index：

Failure probability PLOS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Generator rotor angle failure probability PLOPAS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Voltage instability probability PLOVS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Frequency failure probability PLOFS indexs, expression formula is as follows：

2. dynamic loses load risk class index：

The unacceptable running status probability P NAOS indexs of system, expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic cutting load probability P DLC indexs, expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic cutting load duration EDDLC index, unit is h/a, and expression formula is as follows：

EDDLC=PDLC × T (1-24)

T represents the time；

Dynamic cutting load desired value EDLC indexs, unit is MW/a, and expression formula is as follows：

Dynamic expected loss of energy EDENS indexs, unit is MWh/a, and expression formula is as follows：

11. methods of risk assessments as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the dynamic security risk assessment index Level class index includes：

1. power system index：

Power system index refers to the risk indicator in the range of whole power system, and whole power system institute is determined according to corresponding index Place's risk class, and then provide corresponding pre-control strategy；Power system evaluation index includes that unstability risk and dynamic lose load risk Two major class indexs, but the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in system-wide, index is referring to above-mentioned (1-18)~(1-26) Formula；

2. zone index：

Zone index refers to the risk indicator in certain regional extent of definition, and risk residing for the region is determined according to corresponding index Grade, the different zones to power system carry out the contrast sequence of risk indicator；Regional evaluation index is identical with power system index, But the selection range of fault set and out-of-limit element is that in the range of one's respective area, specific targets are referring to above-mentioned (1-18)~(1-26) formulas；

3. load point index：

Load point index refers to, for some load point, to judge that load point dynamically loses load index；Assessment load point is powered risk Index include：

Load point a dynamic cutting load probability Ps DLC_aIndex, expression formula is as follows：

Load point a dynamic cutting load duration EDDLC_aIndex, unit is h/a, and expression formula is as follows：

EDDLC_a=PDLC_a×T (1-28)

Load point a dynamic cutting load desired values EDLC_aIndex, unit is MW/a, and expression formula is as follows：

Load point a dynamic expected loss of energys EDENS_aIndex, unit is MWh/a, and expression formula is as follows：

I represents power system failure state；

4. event index：

Event index is to evaluate the index of each malfunction risk size, and its computing formula is as follows：

Risk (X)=P (X) × Sev (X) (1-31)

In formula, Risk (X) represents event index, and X represents some malfunction of power network；P (X) represents that malfunction occurs Probability；Sev (X) represents the unstability risk or the order of severity of dynamic mistake load risk of power system after malfunction generation.