CN108303886B - Pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique based on Aircraft Survivability - Google Patents

Pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique based on Aircraft Survivability Download PDF

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CN108303886B
CN108303886B CN201810097391.1A CN201810097391A CN108303886B CN 108303886 B CN108303886 B CN 108303886B CN 201810097391 A CN201810097391 A CN 201810097391A CN 108303886 B CN108303886 B CN 108303886B
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pilot
decision
decoy
aircraft
working pressure
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CN108303886A (en
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宋笔锋
石帅
裴扬
薛梦莲
赵倩
侯鹏
田晨
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Northwestern Polytechnical University
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Northwestern Polytechnical University
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G05CONTROLLING; REGULATING
    • G05BCONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
    • G05B13/00Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
    • G05B13/02Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
    • G05B13/04Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators
    • G05B13/042Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric involving the use of models or simulators in which a parameter or coefficient is automatically adjusted to optimise the performance

Abstract

The present invention provides a kind of pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique based on Aircraft Survivability, comprising the following steps: determines that effective transmitting section of IR decoy and transmitting-are missed the target relation curve;Determine the best emission time of IR decoy;The control instruction for launching IR decoy is sent to pilot immediately, makes pilot in the best emission time transmitting IR decoy of IR decoy.Advantage: it is predicted in real time by Real-time Decision of the target to pilot of highest viability, and consider influence of the data-link performance to Aircraft Survivability and pilot's decision, also contemplate influence of pilot's operating pressure to pilot's final decision, and propose specific quantitative formula, the best opportunity of dispensing jamming bomb decision is made so as to accurately calculate pilot when aircraft is highest viability, to which real-time informing pilot emits IR decoy in the best emission time of IR decoy, the missdistance of guided missile can be made maximum, the battlefield viability highest of aircraft.

Description

Pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique based on Aircraft Survivability
Technical field
The invention belongs to pilot's Real-time Decision electric powder predictions, and in particular to a kind of flight based on Aircraft Survivability Member's Real-time Decision prediction technique.
Background technique
Pilot makes Real-time Decision in the Campaign Process to drive an airplane, through the various instant battle field informations of synthesis, These decisions can directly determine the battlefield viability of aircraft.The battlefield survival of aircraft directly determines final operation result. Especially in current information-based operational environment, pilot needs to make optimizing decision according to bulk information in a short time, mentions The battlefield survival of high aircraft completes set combat duty.
For aircraft during execution task, the biggest threat of experience is the guided missile system of enemy.Aircraft and enemy missile Confrontation between system will determine the battlefield survival of aircraft.The most common confrontation mode is that aircraft utilizes IR decoy Infrared guidance guided missile is interfered, infrared guidance guided missile is made to deviate aircraft, and the missdistance that causes guided missile final it is excessive and Aircraft can not be hit.In this antagonistic process, pilot is launched the opportunity of IR decoy, i.e., pilot, which makes, launches decision Opportunity has decisive influence to final Aircraft Survivability.
Specifically, IR decoy is as the significant electronic countermeasures means of a kind of pair of infrared guidance guided missile interference effect, It is widely used in modern battlefield, but its interference effect and delivering opportunity are closely related, is only thrown in effectively dispensing section Jamming bomb is put, the effect for luring local derviation bullet could be obtained.
Currently, various instant battle field informations are extremely complex since pilot is in the Campaign Process to drive an airplane, cause to fly Office staff is difficult to make the decision of dispensing jamming bomb on the opportunity that aircraft is highest viability, to be unfavorable for the development fought.
Summary of the invention
In view of the defects existing in the prior art, it is pre- to provide a kind of pilot's Real-time Decision based on Aircraft Survivability by the present invention Survey method can effectively solve the above problems.
The technical solution adopted by the invention is as follows:
The present invention provides a kind of pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique based on Aircraft Survivability, comprising the following steps:
Step 1, emulation primary condition corresponding with practical Campaign Process is set, comprising: initial between aircraft and guided missile Distance L0, speed of related movement V between aircraft and guided missile, the time delay T of data-link transmission, the size of data C that need to transmitaSum number According to the transmission rate S of chainp
Step 2, determine that effective transmitting section of IR decoy and transmitting-are missed the target relation curve;
Under the emulation primary condition, simulation step length value Δ L is set, emulation first obtains transmitting range equal to L0When pair The missile missdistance answered;Emulate to obtain transmitting range again equal to L0Corresponding missile missdistance when Δ L;It emulates to obtain again Transmitting range is equal to L0Corresponding missile missdistance when -2 Δ L, and so on, until stopping imitative when transmitting range is less than 0 Very, the transmitting-that abscissa is transmitting range, ordinate is missile missdistance is thus obtained to miss the target relation curve;
On the relation curve, missile missdistance is greater than to hair corresponding when presetting missile missdistance minimum Penetrate the effective transmitting section for being known as IR decoy apart from section;
Step 3, pilot uses operation condition corresponding with emulation primary condition to carry out practical operation, fights in real time Cheng Zhong determines the best emission time of IR decoy using following methods:
Step 3.1, IR decoy emission time step value is set as Δ t, and current step number is m;Enable m=1;
Step 3.2, IR decoy emission time t=m Δ t;
Step 3.3, the working pressure class of pilot in IR decoy emission time t is determined using following methods:
The currently practical distance L of aircraft and guided missile is calculated in IR decoy emission time t in step 3.3.1:
L=L0-V(t-Δt)
Required by task time T is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.2rWith task pot life Ta:
Time pressure T is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.3p:
X is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.42And x4Value:
x2=-0.279+0.903Tp
x4=1.012+0.309Tp-0.699Tp 2
Given x1And x3Value;
Wherein: x1For heart rate parameter, x2For subjective pressure experience, x3For reaction time, x4To operate accuracy;
Step 3.3.5 sets pressure rating valuation functions are as follows:
y1=1.019x1+1.010x2+574.625x3+601.659x4-568.158
y2=1.106x1+1.196x2+622.427x3+571.071x4-597.648
y3=1.174x1+1.418x2+633.388x3+549.668x4-610.753
Wherein: y1、y2、y3Respectively represent low working pressure class, medium working pressure class, high working pressure class;
X is substituted into pressure rating valuation functions1、x2、x3、x4, obtain y1、y2And y3Value;y1、y2、y3In maximum value Corresponding working pressure class is the working pressure class of pilot at this time;
Step 3.4, the working pressure class of the pilot determined according to step 3.3, determines that pilot makes various decisions Before test probability and make transmitting IR decoy decision when pilot perceived distance;Utilize the posterior probability of various decisions At the time of determining that pilot makes transmitting IR decoy decision with efficiency value;Specifically includes the following steps:
Step 3.4.1, pilot may make following 4 kinds of decisions, the 1st kind of decision: emit in effectively transmitting section red Outer jamming bomb;2nd kind of decision: do not emit IR decoy in effectively transmitting section;3rd kind of decision: in effectively transmitting section Outer transmitting IR decoy;4th kind of decision: do not emit IR decoy outside effectively transmitting section;
Step 3.4.2 is calculated each conditional probability under various working pressure class and calculates posterior probability:
If event u1: transmitting IR decoy;Event u2: do not emit IR decoy;Event v1: aircraft is effectively emitting In section;Event v2: aircraft is outside effectively transmitting section;
Given event u1Prior probability be P (u1);Event u2Prior probability be P (u2);
If 1) the work at present pressure rating of pilot is low working pressure class, each thing is obtained using following methods The conditional probability and calculating posterior probability of part:
Plow(vj|ui) i, j=1,2 and
Wherein: Plow(vj|ui) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event uiThing under conditions of generation Part vjThe probability of generation;
According to Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability of each event under low working pressure class is determined, i.e. pilot makes various The probability of decision:
Wherein: Plow(ui|vj) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event vjThing under conditions of generation Part uiThe probability of generation;
2) if the work at present pressure rating of pilot is medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, adopt The conditional probability of each event is obtained using the following method and calculates posterior probability:
Pmh(vj|ui) i, j=1,2 and
Wherein: Pmh(vj|ui) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event uiEvent under conditions of generation vjThe probability of generation;
According to Bayes' theorem, determine that the posteriority of each event under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class is general Rate, i.e. pilot make the probability of various decisions:
Wherein, Pmh(ui|vj) it is conditional probability, it represents under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, in thing Part vjEvent u under conditions of generationiThe probability of generation;
Step 3.4.3 obtains the basic efficiency value after various decisions are made using following methods:
According to the currently practical distance of the obtained aircraft of step 3.3.1 and guided missile, judge whether aircraft is in step 2 and determines Effective transmitting section in, if aircraft be in effectively transmitting section outside, then follow the steps 3.4.3.1;If aircraft, which is in, to be had In effect transmitting section, 3.4.3.2 is thened follow the steps;
Step 3.4.3.1, the corresponding basic efficiency value of 4 kinds of decisions are as follows:
U (1)=0;U (2)=0;U (3)=Dmiss/Dmax;U (4)=1;
Wherein: U (1) represents the basic efficiency value that pilot makes the 1st kind of decision;U (2) represents pilot and makes the 2nd kind The basic efficiency value of decision;U (3) represents the basic efficiency value that pilot makes the 3rd kind of decision;U (4) represents pilot and makes The basic efficiency value of 4 kinds of decisions;
DmaxIt misses the target the maximum value of the missile missdistance in relation curve for the transmitting-that step 2 determines;
DmissFollowing methods are used to obtain: if pilot's work at present pressure rating is low working pressure class, root According to the currently practical distance of aircraft and guided missile, the transmitting-that direct finding step 2 determines is missed the target relation curve, obtain with it is current real Border is apart from corresponding missile missdistance;
If pilot's work at present pressure rating is medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, first root Perceived distance is determined according to following formula:
Wherein: DTFor the perceived distance of pilot, L is the currently practical distance of aircraft and guided missile, TPFor time pressure;
Again using perceived distance as search criterion, the transmitting-that finding step 2 determines is missed the target relation curve, is obtained and is perceived Apart from corresponding missile missdistance;
It is corresponding to obtain 4 kinds of decisions using following formula if aircraft is in effectively transmitting section by step 3.4.3.2 Basic efficiency value:
U (1)=Dmiss/Dmax;U (2)=0;U (3)=0;U (4)=0;
Step 3.4.4 obtains the expectation efficiency value after various decisions are made using following methods:
The expectation efficiency value of each decision is the product of the corresponding posterior probability of each decision and basic efficiency value, it may be assumed that
J (1)=P (u1|v1)U(1)
J (2)=P (u2|v1)U(2)
J (3)=P (u1|v2)U(3)
J (4)=P (u2|v2)U(4)
Wherein: J (1) represents the expectation efficiency value that pilot makes the 1st kind of decision;J (2) represents pilot and makes the 2nd kind The expectation efficiency value of decision;J (3) represents the expectation efficiency value that pilot makes the 3rd kind of decision;J (4) represents pilot and makes The expectation efficiency value of 4 kinds of decisions;
The maximum decision of efficiency value will it is expected as current time corresponding epicycle pilot decision;
Whether the epicycle pilot decision that step 3.4.5, judgment step 3.4.4 are obtained is the 1st kind of decision, it may be assumed that effective The decision for emitting IR decoy in transmitting section makes aircraft and guided missile according to opposite fortune if it is not, pilot goes on the war-path Dynamic speed V continues to fly, and enables m=m+1, and return step 3.2 carries out the prediction of subsequent time, such continuous loop iteration, until Obtain pilot's decision be the 1st kind of decision when, stop iteration;When pilot's decision is the 1st kind of decision, corresponding IR decoy Emission time t is the best emission time of IR decoy, and t is that pilot is dry to make dispensing when highest viability in aircraft The best opportunity for playing decision is disturbed, step 4 is then executed;
Step 4;Immediately to pilot send launch IR decoy control instruction, make pilot IR decoy most Good emission time emits IR decoy.
Preferably, when obtaining the best emission time of IR decoy, the highest viability of aircraft is obtained using following formula:
Wherein: PsFor the highest viability of aircraft;PkFor the killing probability of aircraft;ApFor the Vulnerable Area of aircraft;D0 missFor Missile missdistance corresponding to the best emission time of IR decoy.
A kind of pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique based on Aircraft Survivability provided by the invention has the advantage that
The present invention is predicted in real time by Real-time Decision of the target to pilot of highest viability, and considers data Influence of the chain performance to Aircraft Survivability and pilot's decision, it is also contemplated that pilot's operating pressure is to pilot's final decision It influences, and proposes specific quantitative formula, so as to accurately calculate pilot's work when aircraft is highest viability The best opportunity of jamming bomb decision is launched out, so that real-time informing pilot is infrared in the best emission time transmitting of IR decoy Jamming bomb can make the missdistance of guided missile maximum, the battlefield viability highest of aircraft.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique provided by the invention based on Aircraft Survivability.
Fig. 2 is a kind of specific example figure provided by the invention for emitting-missing the target relation curve.
Specific embodiment
In order to which the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects solved by the present invention is more clearly understood, below in conjunction with Accompanying drawings and embodiments, the present invention will be described in further detail.It should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein only to It explains the present invention, is not intended to limit the present invention.
For aircraft during execution task, the biggest threat of experience is the guided missile system of enemy.Aircraft and enemy missile Confrontation between system will determine the battlefield survival of aircraft.The most common confrontation mode is that aircraft utilizes IR decoy Infrared guidance guided missile is interfered, infrared guidance guided missile is made to deviate aircraft, and the missdistance that causes guided missile final it is excessive and Aircraft can not be hit.In this antagonistic process, pilot is launched the opportunity of IR decoy, i.e., pilot, which makes, launches decision Opportunity has decisive influence to final Aircraft Survivability.And in the information-based operation epoch, as battle field information share with The carrier of transmission, the performance of data-link necessarily have significant impact to the decision of pilot.Therefore, the invention proposes one kind to examine Consider data-link performance, during aircraft and infrared guidance missile confrontation, is predicted using aircraft highest viability as target The method of the Real-time Decision of pilot.
Since IR decoy effectively launches the presence in section, pilot must make dispensing in correct time interval The decision of IR decoy could obtain interference effect to guided missile.But in information-based operational environment, share and transmission Data volume is very big, when the transmission rate of data-link is lower, biggish operating pressure can be caused to pilot, easily makees pilot Make mistake decision, i.e., does not make the decision for launching IR decoy in valid interval, substantially reduce Aircraft Survivability.This hair Bright innovative point are as follows: (1) combine pilot's operating pressure with data-link performance.Data-link is widely used to modern operation In the middle, performance necessarily will affect the operating pressure of pilot, and the operating pressure of pilot can determine final decision again, because This, needs to consider the influence of data-link when assessing pilot's operating pressure.(2) pilot's operating pressure is illustrated to pilot most The influence of whole decision.Pilot's operating pressure is big, is easier to that mistake occurs when handling information, is also easy to happen decision error, but this The relationship between pilot's operating pressure and decision is described in detail by specific quantitative formula in invention.
Therefore, the present invention first determine IR decoy effective dispensing section, for determine pilot decision and Assess Aircraft Survivability;And then the working pressure class of pilot is determined according to the performance of data-link;It is finally fixed according to Bayes Reason and expectation efficiency value, determine that pilot makes the best opportunity for launching jamming bomb decision when aircraft is highest viability, can So that the missdistance of guided missile is maximum, the battlefield viability highest of aircraft.
Pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique provided by the invention based on Aircraft Survivability, specifically includes the following steps:
Step 1, emulation primary condition corresponding with practical Campaign Process is set, comprising: initial between aircraft and guided missile Distance L0, speed of related movement V between aircraft and guided missile, the time delay T of data-link transmission, the size of data C that need to transmitaSum number According to the transmission rate S of chainp
Step 2, determine that effective transmitting section of IR decoy and transmitting-are missed the target relation curve;
Under the emulation primary condition, simulation step length value Δ L is set, emulation first obtains transmitting range equal to L0When pair The missile missdistance answered;Emulate to obtain transmitting range again equal to L0Corresponding missile missdistance when Δ L;It emulates to obtain again Transmitting range is equal to L0Corresponding missile missdistance when -2 Δ L, and so on, until stopping imitative when transmitting range is less than 0 Very, the transmitting-that abscissa is transmitting range, ordinate is missile missdistance is thus obtained to miss the target relation curve;
On the relation curve, missile missdistance is greater than to hair corresponding when presetting missile missdistance minimum Penetrate the effective transmitting section for being known as IR decoy apart from section;
Specifically, infrared guidance guided missile will track IR decoy and be formed with aircraft after aircraft launches IR decoy Infra-red radiation center, obtained first according to the change in radiation intensity curve of IR decoy and the infrared signal intensity of aircraft itself To the x at the infra-red radiation center at each moment, y, z coordinate;The target that the position at infra-red radiation center is flown as missile guidance Position, while guided missile is according to set flight guidance law target position;Missile guidance terminates, according to the final of guided missile and aircraft Positional relationship obtains the missdistance of guided missile;Different moments, which launch IR decoy, can generate different missdistances, cause most Collection composed by transmitting range corresponding to dispensing moment of the whole missdistance greater than 20m is combined into effective dispensing of IR decoy Section.
Effective dispensing section of IR decoy is determined especially by following steps:
The first step determines infra-red radiation center.
After IR decoy is launched, IR decoy releases k infrared sources in the sky, and IR decoy passes through The trend of " first increase reduces again " is presented in the infra-red radiation value that burning generates;The infra-red radiation value of aircraft is fixed value, therefore infrared The infra-red radiation value at the infra-red radiation center that jamming bomb and aircraft are formed is also variation;Meanwhile IR decoy does parabola Movement, setting aircraft level fly at a constant speed, therefore the coordinate value at infra-red radiation center is also variation;Infra-red radiation center it is red External radiation value is the arithmetic average of airplane infrared radiation value and the instantaneous infra-red radiation value of IR decoy;Wherein, Infrared jamming The instantaneous infra-red radiation value of bullet is the arithmetic average of the k infrared sources released, therefore, the coordinate at infra-red radiation center (xtp, ytp, ztp) calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, xtpFor the x coordinate at infra-red radiation center;I1、I2…IkFor the instantaneous radiation intensity S of each infrared sources; I0For Aircraft Instantaneous radiation intensity;x1'、x2'…xk' be each infrared sources instantaneous x coordinate;x0' sat for the instantaneous x of aircraft Mark;R1、R2…RkFor the instantaneous distance of each infrared sources to missile homer;R0For aircraft to the instantaneous of missile homer Distance;
Wherein: y1'、y2'…yk' be each infrared sources instantaneous y-coordinate;y0' be aircraft instantaneous y-coordinate;z1'、 z2'…zk' be each infrared sources instantaneous z coordinate;z0' be aircraft instantaneous z coordinate;
Second step determines corresponding missile missdistance of each dispensing moment.
Aircraft and guided missile are set in same level height relative flight, proportionally guidance law carries out guided flight to guided missile; Assuming that IR decoy can be discharged in guided missile 16000m earliest in aircraft
It is calculated every 200m once at this apart from upper missile missdistance in 0 to 16000m distance;Aircraft with it is red The relative position of outer jamming bomb constantly changes with infra-red radiation value, the position at the infra-red radiation center formed and infra-red radiation value Also constantly changing, guided missile is then tracked using infra-red radiation center as target, and terminates after-explosion, plane of missing the target in guidance Minimum radial distance with aircraft mass center is missile missdistance;
Third step determines effective dispensing section of IR decoy.
IR decoy is launched too early, although most starting guided missile can effectively be lured partially, the IR decoy afterburnt, and guided missile There is time enough to re-search for aircraft, and keeps aircraft locked and hit;IR decoy is launched too late, due to infrared Jamming bomb is excessively close with plane distance, cannot space out, and also results in that missile missdistance is too small, and Aircraft Survivability is very low;Cause There are effective dispensing sections of an IR decoy for this;The corresponding guided missile of each transmitting range being calculated in second step is de- Range is from as effective dispensing section of IR decoy, schematic diagram is the transmitting range using missile missdistance greater than 20m Attached drawing 2.
Step 3, pilot uses operation condition corresponding with emulation primary condition to carry out practical operation, fights in real time Cheng Zhong determines the best emission time of IR decoy using following methods:
Step 3.1, IR decoy emission time step value is set as Δ t, and current step number is m;Enable m=1;
Step 3.2, IR decoy emission time t=m Δ t;
Step 3.3, the working pressure class of pilot in IR decoy emission time t is determined using following methods:
The working pressure class of pilot is related with four factors: operation accuracy, the reaction time, subjective pressure experience with And heart rate parameter, wherein subjective pressure experience, operation accuracy are related to time pressure parameter, and time pressure parameter is by data Chain performance is determined.The important parameter for the characterize data chain performance that is delayed when data-link, delay is true when the present embodiment utilizes data-link Determine the working pressure class of pilot.
The currently practical distance L of aircraft and guided missile is calculated in IR decoy emission time t in step 3.3.1:
L=L0-V(t-Δt)
Required by task time T is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.2rWith task pot life Ta:
As it can be seen that temporally progress gradually decreases task pot life;The required by task time is related to the performance of data-link.
Time pressure T is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.3p:
X is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.42And x4Value:
x2=-0.279+0.903Tp
x4=1.012+0.309Tp-0.699Tp 2
Given x1And x3Value;
Wherein: x1For heart rate parameter, x2For subjective pressure experience, x3For reaction time, x4To operate accuracy;
Step 3.3.5 sets pressure rating valuation functions are as follows:
y1=1.019x1+1.010x2+574.625x3+601.659x4-568.158
y2=1.106x1+1.196x2+622.427x3+571.071x4-597.648
y3=1.174x1+1.418x2+633.388x3+549.668x4-610.753
Wherein: y1、y2、y3Respectively represent low working pressure class, medium working pressure class, high working pressure class;
X is substituted into pressure rating valuation functions1、x2、x3、x4, obtain y1、y2And y3Value;y1、y2、y3In maximum value Corresponding working pressure class is the working pressure class of pilot at this time;
After the size, the transmission rate of data-link and required by task time of transmitting data determine, when can determine any Pilot's working pressure class at quarter.
The example of pilot's working pressure class of a determining any time is set forth below:
In this example, it is assumed that the initial distance 10000m between aircraft and guided missile, opposite between aircraft and guided missile Movement velocity is 3Ma;The size of data that need to be transmitted is 1000bits, and the transmission rate of data-link is 500bits/s, and data-link passes Defeated time delay is 4s;
Aircraft is in Campaign Process, at the 3rd second, calculates pilot's working pressure class using following method:
At the 3rd second, when aircraft and guided missile are at a distance of 8000m, then task pot life are as follows:
The required by task time are as follows:
Time pressure are as follows:
Using following formula calculating parameter x2、x4Value:
x2=-0.279+0.903Tp=-0.279+0.903*1=0.624
x4=1.012+0.309-0.699Tp 2=1.012+0.309-0.699*12=0.622
According to setting, x1=50, x3=770ms, therefore, y1、y2、y3Value:
y1=1.019*50+1.010*0.624+574.625*0.770+601.659*0.622-568.158=300.115
y2=1.106*50+1.196*0.624+622.427*0.770+571.071*0.622-597.648=292.873
y3=1.174*50+1.418*0.624+633.388*0.770+549.668*0.622-610.753=278.434
According to calculated result, y1Value it is larger, therefore pilot is in low working pressure class at the 3rd second;
Aircraft is in Campaign Process, at the 4th second, using following method calculating pilot's working pressure class: the 4th second When, when aircraft and guided missile are at a distance of 7000m, then task pot life are as follows:
The required by task time are as follows:
Time pressure at this time are as follows:
Using following formula calculating parameter x2、x4Value:
x2=-0.279+0.903Tp=-0.279+0.903*1.2=0.805
x4=1.012+0.309-0.699Tp 2=1.012+0.309-0.699*1.22=0.314
According to setting, x1=50, x3=770ms, therefore, y1、y2、y3Value:
y1=1.019*50+1.010*0.805+574.625*0.770+601.659*0.314-568.158=114.987
y2=1.106*50+1.196*0.805+622.427*0.770+571.071*0.314-597.648=117.200
y3=1.174*50+1.418*0.805+633.388*0.770+549.668*0.314-610.753=109.393
According to calculated result, y2Value it is larger, therefore pilot is in medium working pressure class at the 4th second;
Aircraft is in Campaign Process, at the 5th second, calculates pilot's working pressure class using following method:
At the 5th second, when aircraft and guided missile are at a distance of 6000m, then task pot life are as follows:
The required by task time are as follows:
Time pressure are as follows:
Using following formula calculating parameter x2、x4Value:
x2=-0.279+0.903Tp=-0.279+0.903*1.5=1.076
x4=1.012+0.309-0.699Tp 2=1.012+0.309-0.699*1.52=-0.252
According to setting, x1=50, x3=770ms, therefore, y1、y2、y3Value:
y1=1.019*50+1.010*1.076+574.625*0.770+601.659* (- 0.252) -568.158=- 225.278
y2=1.106*50+1.196*1.076+622.427*0.770+571.071* (- 0.252) -597.648=- 205.702
y3=1.174*50+1.418*1.076+633.388*0.770+549.668* (- 0.252) -610.753=- 201.334
According to calculated result, y3Value it is larger, therefore pilot is in high working pressure class at the 5th second.
Step 3.4, the working pressure class of the pilot determined according to step 3.3, determines that pilot makes various decisions Before test probability and make transmitting IR decoy decision when pilot perceived distance;Utilize the posterior probability of various decisions At the time of determining that pilot makes transmitting IR decoy decision with efficiency value;Specifically includes the following steps:
Step 3.4.1, pilot may make following 4 kinds of decisions, the 1st kind of decision: emit in effectively transmitting section red Outer jamming bomb;2nd kind of decision: do not emit IR decoy in effectively transmitting section;3rd kind of decision: in effectively transmitting section Outer transmitting IR decoy;4th kind of decision: do not emit IR decoy outside effectively transmitting section;
Step 3.4.2 is calculated each conditional probability under various working pressure class and calculates posterior probability:
If event u1: transmitting IR decoy;Event u2: do not emit IR decoy;Event v1: aircraft is effectively emitting In section;Event v2: aircraft is outside effectively transmitting section;
Given event u1Prior probability be P (u1);Event u2Prior probability be P (u2);
If 1) the work at present pressure rating of pilot is low working pressure class, each thing is obtained using following methods The conditional probability and calculating posterior probability of part:
Plow(vj|ui) i, j=1,2 and
Wherein: Plow(vj|ui) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event uiThing under conditions of generation Part vjThe probability of generation;
According to Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability of each event under low working pressure class is determined, i.e. pilot makes various The probability of decision:
Wherein: Plow(ui|vj) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event vjThing under conditions of generation Part uiThe probability of generation;
2) if the work at present pressure rating of pilot is medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, adopt The conditional probability of each event is obtained using the following method and calculates posterior probability:
Pmh(vj|ui) i, j=1,2 and
Wherein: Pmh(vj|ui) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event uiEvent under conditions of generation vjThe probability of generation;
According to Bayes' theorem, determine that the posteriority of each event under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class is general Rate, i.e. pilot make the probability of various decisions:
Wherein, Pmh(ui|vj) it is conditional probability, it represents under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, in thing Part vjEvent u under conditions of generationiThe probability of generation;
Step 3.4.3 obtains the basic efficiency value after various decisions are made using following methods:
According to the currently practical distance of the obtained aircraft of step 3.3.1 and guided missile, judge whether aircraft is in step 2 and determines Effective transmitting section in, if aircraft be in effectively transmitting section outside, then follow the steps 3.4.3.1;If aircraft, which is in, to be had In effect transmitting section, 3.4.3.2 is thened follow the steps;
Step 3.4.3.1, the corresponding basic efficiency value of 4 kinds of decisions are as follows:
U (1)=0;U (2)=0;U (3)=Dmiss/Dmax;U (4)=1;
Wherein: U (1) represents the basic efficiency value that pilot makes the 1st kind of decision;U (2) represents pilot and makes the 2nd kind The basic efficiency value of decision;U (3) represents the basic efficiency value that pilot makes the 3rd kind of decision;U (4) represents pilot and makes The basic efficiency value of 4 kinds of decisions;
DmaxIt misses the target the maximum value of the missile missdistance in relation curve for the transmitting-that step 2 determines;
DmissFollowing methods are used to obtain: if pilot's work at present pressure rating is low working pressure class, root According to the currently practical distance of aircraft and guided missile, the transmitting-that direct finding step 2 determines is missed the target relation curve, obtain with it is current real Border is apart from corresponding missile missdistance;
If pilot's work at present pressure rating is medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, first root Perceived distance is determined according to following formula:
Wherein: DTFor the perceived distance of pilot, L is the currently practical distance of aircraft and guided missile, TPFor time pressure;
Again using perceived distance as search criterion, the transmitting-that finding step 2 determines is missed the target relation curve, is obtained and is perceived Apart from corresponding missile missdistance;
That is, perceived distance will appear deviation, therefore inquire step when pilot is in middle high working pressure class Rapid 2 transmittings-determined miss the target relation curve when determining missile missdistance, cannot be directly using the aircraft and guided missile at corresponding moment Currently practical distance, missdistance need to be inquired according to the perceived distance that above formula determines.
It is corresponding to obtain 4 kinds of decisions using following formula if aircraft is in effectively transmitting section by step 3.4.3.2 Basic efficiency value:
U (1)=Dmiss/Dmax;U (2)=0;U (3)=0;U (4)=0;
Step 3.4.4 obtains the expectation efficiency value after various decisions are made using following methods:
The expectation efficiency value of each decision is the product of the corresponding posterior probability of each decision and basic efficiency value, it may be assumed that
J (1)=P (u1|v1)U(1)
J (2)=P (u2|v1)U(2)
J (3)=P (u1|v2)U(3)
J (4)=P (u2|v2)U(4)
Wherein: J (1) represents the expectation efficiency value that pilot makes the 1st kind of decision;J (2) represents pilot and makes the 2nd kind The expectation efficiency value of decision;J (3) represents the expectation efficiency value that pilot makes the 3rd kind of decision;J (4) represents pilot and makes The expectation efficiency value of 4 kinds of decisions;
The maximum decision of efficiency value will it is expected as current time corresponding epicycle pilot decision;
Whether the epicycle pilot decision that step 3.4.5, judgment step 3.4.4 are obtained is the 1st kind of decision, it may be assumed that effective The decision for emitting IR decoy in transmitting section makes aircraft and guided missile according to opposite fortune if it is not, pilot goes on the war-path Dynamic speed V continues to fly, and enables m=m+1, and return step 3.2 carries out the prediction of subsequent time, such continuous loop iteration, until Obtain pilot's decision be the 1st kind of decision when, stop iteration;When pilot's decision is the 1st kind of decision, corresponding IR decoy Emission time t is the best emission time of IR decoy, and t is that pilot is dry to make dispensing when highest viability in aircraft The best opportunity for playing decision is disturbed, step 4 is then executed;
A kind of specific implementation of step 3.4 is set forth below, it may be assumed that make one at the time of transmitting IR decoy decision A specific example:
The first step enumerates the various decisions that pilot may make;According to pilot whether emit IR decoy, whether Emit IR decoy in effectively transmitting section, can determine that pilot may make 4 kinds of decisions:
Emit IR decoy in effectively transmitting section,
Do not emit IR decoy in effectively transmitting section,
IR decoy is penetrated in effectively transmitting section outgoing,
Do not emit IR decoy outside effectively transmitting section };
Second step sets each conditional probability under each working pressure class and calculates posterior probability:
If event u1: transmitting IR decoy;Event u2: do not emit IR decoy;Event v1: aircraft is effectively emitting In section;Event v2: aircraft is outside effectively transmitting section;
If event u1Prior probability P (u1)=0.4, event u2Prior probability P (u2)=0.6;
Under low working pressure class, each conditional probability are as follows:
Plow(v1|u1)=0.8Plow(v2|u1)=0.2Plow(v1|u2)=0.1Plow(v2|u2)=0.9
According to Bayes' theorem, posterior probability, that is, pilot of each event makes various decisions under low working pressure class Probability are as follows:
Under middle and high working pressure class, each conditional probability are as follows:
Pmh(v1|u1)=0.2Pmh(v2|u1)=0.8Pmh(v1|u2)=0.9Pmh(v2|u2)=0.1
According to Bayes' theorem, under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, the posterior probability of each decision are as follows:
Third step determines the expectation efficiency value of each decision according to working pressure class:
If current time is the 3rd second, i.e., when aircraft and guided missile are at a distance of 8000m, pilot is in low working pressure class, this It carves and effectively emits outside section in IR decoy, the corresponding expectation efficiency value of four kinds of decisions of pilot uses below step meter It calculates:
(1) when effectively emit outside section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value U (1) of the first decision is 0, then the A kind of expectation efficiency value J (1) of decision are as follows:
J (1)=Plow(u1|v1) U (1)=0.842*0=0
(2) when effectively emit outside section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value U (2) of second of decision is 0, then the The expectation efficiency value J (2) of two kinds of decisions are as follows:
J (2)=Plow(u2|v1) U (2)=0.158*0=0
(3) when effectively emitting outside section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value U (3) of the third decision is Dmiss/ Dmax, according to the missdistance that step 1 determines, in 8000m apart from upper transmitting IR decoy, missdistance is about 1m, and effective The maximum missdistance emitted in section is about 450m, then the expectation efficiency value J (3) of the third decision are as follows:
J (3)=Plow(U1|V2) U (3)=0.129*1/150=8.6 × 10-4
The basic efficiency value U (4) of (4) the 4th kinds of decisions is 1, then the expectation efficiency value J (4) of the 4th kind of decision are as follows:
J (4)=Plow(u2|v2) U (4)=0.871*1=0.871
Decision of the maximum decision of desired efficiency value as pilot is taken, then the decision of pilot is " effectively transmitting at this time Do not emit jamming bomb outside section ", that is, continue to fly;
If current time is the 4th second, i.e., when aircraft and guided missile are at a distance of 7000m, pilot is in medium working pressure class, Effectively emit in section now at IR decoy, the corresponding expectation efficiency value of four kinds of decisions of pilot uses below step meter It calculates:
(1) when effectively emitting in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value U (1) of the first decision is Dmiss/ Dmax, but pilot is in medium working pressure class at this time, when determining missdistance, should be missed the target according to perceived distance to determine Distance, at this point, perceived distance are as follows:
The corresponding missdistance of 5833m is about 140m, and posterior probability is also that posteriority under middle and high working pressure class is general Rate, then the expectation efficiency value J (1) of the first decision are as follows:
J (1)=Pmh(u1|v1) U (1)=0.158*140/150=0.147
(2) when effectively emit in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value U (2) of second of decision is 0, then the The expectation efficiency value J (2) of two kinds of decisions are as follows:
J (2)=Pmh(u2|v1) U (2)=0.842*0=0
(3) when effectively emit in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value U (3) of the third decision is 0, then the The expectation efficiency value J (3) of three kinds of decisions are as follows:
J (3)=Pmh(u1|v2) U (3)=0.871*0=0
(4) when effectively emit in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value U (4) of the 4th kind of decision is 0, then the The expectation efficiency value J (4) of four kinds of decisions are as follows:
J (4)=Pmh(u2|v2) U (4)=0.129*0=0
Decision of the maximum decision of desired efficiency value as pilot is taken, then the decision of pilot is " effectively transmitting at this time Emit jamming bomb in section ", that is, emit jamming bomb;
4th step can also calculate a step-length when determining to emit IR decoy to confirm result more:
Take checked within the 5th second, i.e., when aircraft and guided missile are at a distance of 6000m, pilot is in medium working pressure class, this It carves and effectively emits in section in IR decoy, the corresponding expectation efficiency value of four kinds of decisions of pilot uses below step meter It calculates:
(1) when effectively emitting in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value of the first decision is Dmiss/Dmax, but Pilot is in medium working pressure class at this time, when determining missdistance, should determine missdistance according to perceived distance, this When, perceived distance are as follows:
The corresponding missdistance of 5833m is about 105m, and posterior probability is general for the posteriority under middle and high working pressure class Rate, then the expectation efficiency value of the first decision are as follows:
J (1)=Pmh(u1|v1) U (1)=0.158*105/150=0.111
(2) when effectively emit in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value of second of decision is 0, then second The expectation efficiency value of decision are as follows:
J (2)=Pmh(u2|v1) U (2)=0.842*0=0
(3) when effectively emit in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value of the third decision is 0, then the third The expectation efficiency value of decision are as follows:
J (3)=Pmh(u1|v2) U (3)=0.871*0=0
(4) when effectively emit in section in IR decoy, the basic efficiency value of the 4th kind of decision is 0, then the 4th kind The expectation efficiency value of decision are as follows:
J (4)=Pmh(u2|v2) U (4)=0.129*0=0
As it can be seen that take decision of the maximum decision of desired efficiency value as pilot at the 5th second, then at this time pilot certainly Plan is " effectively emitting jamming bomb in transmitting section ", i.e. transmitting jamming bomb.
When obtaining the best emission time of IR decoy, the highest viability of aircraft is obtained using following formula:
Wherein: PsFor the highest viability of aircraft;PkFor the killing probability of aircraft;ApFor the Vulnerable Area of aircraft;D0 missFor Missile missdistance corresponding to the best emission time of IR decoy.
The specific example of the viability of assessment aircraft is set forth below:
It is assumed that the Vulnerable Area of aircraft is 600m2, the decision of pilot is " to emit Infrared jamming when at a distance of 7000m Bullet " effectively launches section according to IR decoy, and IR decoy corresponding missile missdistance is emitted when learning 7000m about For 10m, then: the viability of aircraft:
Step 4;Immediately to pilot send launch IR decoy control instruction, make pilot IR decoy most Good emission time emits IR decoy.
It can be seen that the present invention is predicted in real time by Real-time Decision of the target to pilot of highest viability, and Consider influence of the data-link performance to Aircraft Survivability and pilot's decision, it is also contemplated that pilot's operating pressure is to pilot The influence of final decision, and specific quantitative formula is proposed, it is highest so as to accurately calculate pilot in aircraft The best opportunity for launching jamming bomb decision is made when viability, so that real-time informing pilot is when IR decoy most preferably emits Transmitting IR decoy is carved, the missdistance of guided missile can be made maximum, the battlefield viability highest of aircraft.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art For member, without departing from the principle of the present invention, it can also make several improvements and retouch, these improvements and modifications are also answered Depending on protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (2)

1. a kind of pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique based on Aircraft Survivability, which comprises the following steps:
Step 1, emulation primary condition corresponding with practical Campaign Process is set, comprising: the initial distance between aircraft and guided missile L0, speed of related movement V between aircraft and guided missile, the time delay T of data-link transmission, the size of data C that need to transmitaAnd data-link Transmission rate Sp
Step 2, determine that effective transmitting section of IR decoy and transmitting-are missed the target relation curve;
Under the emulation primary condition, simulation step length value △ L is set, emulation first obtains transmitting range equal to L0When it is corresponding Missile missdistance;Emulate to obtain transmitting range again equal to L0Corresponding missile missdistance when-△ L;It emulates and is emitted again Distance is equal to L0Corresponding missile missdistance when -2 △ L, and so on, until stop emulation when transmitting range is less than 0, by This obtains the transmitting-that abscissa is transmitting range, ordinate is missile missdistance and misses the target relation curve;
On the relation curve, when missile missdistance is greater than default missile missdistance minimum corresponding transmitting away from From effective transmitting section that section is known as IR decoy;
Step 3, pilot uses operation condition corresponding with emulation primary condition to carry out practical operation, in real-time Campaign Process In, the best emission time of IR decoy is determined using following methods:
Step 3.1, IR decoy emission time step value is set as △ t, and current step number is m;Enable m=1;
Step 3.2, IR decoy emission time t=m △ t;
Step 3.3, the working pressure class of pilot in IR decoy emission time t is determined using following methods:
The currently practical distance L of aircraft and guided missile is calculated in IR decoy emission time t in step 3.3.1:
L=L0-V(t-△t)
Required by task time T is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.2rWith task pot life Ta:
Time pressure T is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.3p:
X is calculated using following formula in step 3.3.42And x4Value:
x2=-0.279+0.903Tp
x4=1.012+0.309Tp-0.699Tp 2
Given x1And x3Value;
Wherein: x1For heart rate parameter, x2For subjective pressure experience, x3For reaction time, x4To operate accuracy;
Step 3.3.5 sets pressure rating valuation functions are as follows:
y1=1.019x1+1.010x2+574.625x3+601.659x4-568.158
y2=1.106x1+1.196x2+622.427x3+571.071x4-597.648
y3=1.174x1+1.418x2+633.388x3+549.668x4-610.753
Wherein: y1、y2、y3Respectively represent low working pressure class, medium working pressure class, high working pressure class;
X is substituted into pressure rating valuation functions1、x2、x3、x4, obtain y1、y2And y3Value;y1、y2、y3In maximum value institute it is right The working pressure class answered is the working pressure class of pilot at this time;
Step 3.4, the working pressure class of the pilot determined according to step 3.3, before determining that pilot makes various decisions The perceived distance of pilot when testing probability and making transmitting IR decoy decision;Utilize the posterior probability and effect of various decisions At the time of energy value determines that pilot makes transmitting IR decoy decision;Specifically includes the following steps:
Step 3.4.1, pilot may make following 4 kinds of decisions, the 1st kind of decision: emit in effectively transmitting section infrared dry Disturb bullet;2nd kind of decision: do not emit IR decoy in effectively transmitting section;3rd kind of decision: in effectively transmitting section outgoing Penetrate IR decoy;4th kind of decision: do not emit IR decoy outside effectively transmitting section;
Step 3.4.2 is calculated each conditional probability under various working pressure class and calculates posterior probability:
If event u1: transmitting IR decoy;Event u2: do not emit IR decoy;Event v1: aircraft is in effectively transmitting section It is interior;Event v2: aircraft is outside effectively transmitting section;
Given event u1Prior probability be P (u1);Event u2Prior probability be P (u2);
If 1) the work at present pressure rating of pilot is low working pressure class, each event is obtained using following methods Conditional probability and calculating posterior probability:
Plow(vj|ui), i, j=1,2 and
Wherein: Plow(vj|ui) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event uiEvent v under conditions of generationjHair Raw probability;
According to Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability of each event under low working pressure class is determined, i.e. pilot makes various decisions Probability:
Wherein: Plow(ui|vj) it is conditional probability, it represents under low working pressure class, in event vjEvent u under conditions of generationiHair Raw probability;
If 2) the work at present pressure rating of pilot be medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, use with Lower method obtains the conditional probability of each event and calculates posterior probability:
Pmh(vj|ui), i, j=1,2 and
Wherein: Pmh(vj|ui) it is conditional probability, it represents under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, in event uiHair Event v under conditions of lifejThe probability of generation;
According to Bayes' theorem, the posterior probability of each event under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class is determined, i.e., Pilot makes the probability of various decisions:
Wherein, Pmh(ui|vj) it is conditional probability, it represents under medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, in event vjHair Event u under conditions of lifeiThe probability of generation;
Step 3.4.3 obtains the basic efficiency value after various decisions are made using following methods:
According to the currently practical distance of the obtained aircraft of step 3.3.1 and guided missile, judge whether aircraft is in having for step 2 determination In effect transmitting section, if aircraft is in outside effectively transmitting section, 3.4.3.1 is thened follow the steps;If aircraft is in effectively hair It penetrates in section, thens follow the steps 3.4.3.2;
Step 3.4.3.1, the corresponding basic efficiency value of 4 kinds of decisions are as follows:
U (1)=0;U (2)=0;U (3)=Dmiss/Dmax;U (4)=1;
Wherein: U (1) represents the basic efficiency value that pilot makes the 1st kind of decision;U (2) represents pilot and makes the 2nd kind of decision Basic efficiency value;U (3) represents the basic efficiency value that pilot makes the 3rd kind of decision;U (4) represents pilot and makes the 4th kind The basic efficiency value of decision;
DmaxIt misses the target the maximum value of the missile missdistance in relation curve for the transmitting-that step 2 determines;
DmissUse following methods to obtain: if pilot's work at present pressure rating for low working pressure class, according to aircraft With the currently practical distance of guided missile, the transmitting-that direct finding step 2 determines is missed the target relation curve, is obtained and currently practical distance Corresponding missile missdistance;
If pilot's work at present pressure rating is medium working pressure class or high working pressure class, first under Formula determines perceived distance:
Wherein: DTFor the perceived distance of pilot, L is the currently practical distance of aircraft and guided missile, TPFor time pressure;
Again using perceived distance as search criterion, the transmitting-that finding step 2 determines is missed the target relation curve, is obtained and perceived distance Corresponding missile missdistance;
Step 3.4.3.2 obtains the corresponding basis of 4 kinds of decisions using following formula if aircraft is in effectively transmitting section Efficiency value:
U (1)=Dmiss/Dmax;U (2)=0;U (3)=0;U (4)=0;
Step 3.4.4 obtains the expectation efficiency value after various decisions are made using following methods:
The expectation efficiency value of each decision is the product of the corresponding posterior probability of each decision and basic efficiency value, it may be assumed that
J (1)=P (u1|v1)U(1)
J (2)=P (u2|v1)U(2)
J (3)=P (u1|v2)U(3)
J (4)=P (u2|v2)U(4)
Wherein: J (1) represents the expectation efficiency value that pilot makes the 1st kind of decision;J (2) represents pilot and makes the 2nd kind of decision Expectation efficiency value;J (3) represents the expectation efficiency value that pilot makes the 3rd kind of decision;J (4) represents pilot and makes the 4th kind The expectation efficiency value of decision;
The maximum decision of efficiency value will it is expected as current time corresponding epicycle pilot decision;
Whether the epicycle pilot decision that step 3.4.5, judgment step 3.4.4 are obtained is the 1st kind of decision, it may be assumed that is effectively being emitted Emit the decision of IR decoy in section, if it is not, pilot goes on the war-path, makes aircraft and guided missile according to relative motion speed Degree V continues to fly, and enables m=m+1, and return step 3.2 carries out the prediction of subsequent time, such continuous loop iteration, until obtaining When pilot's decision is the 1st kind of decision, stop iteration;When pilot's decision is the 1st kind of decision, corresponding IR decoy transmitting Moment t is the best emission time of IR decoy, and t is that pilot makes dispensing jamming bomb when aircraft is highest viability Then the best opportunity of decision executes step 4;
Step 4;The control instruction for launching IR decoy is sent to pilot immediately, sends out pilot most preferably in IR decoy It penetrates and emits IR decoy constantly.
2. pilot's Real-time Decision prediction technique according to claim 1 based on Aircraft Survivability, which is characterized in that When obtaining the best emission time of IR decoy, the highest viability of aircraft is obtained using following formula:
Wherein: PsFor the highest viability of aircraft;PkFor the killing probability of aircraft;ApFor the Vulnerable Area of aircraft;D0 missIt is infrared Missile missdistance corresponding to the best emission time of jamming bomb.
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