CN107969412B - Method for effectively implementing phosphine fumigation by using mathematical model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for effectively implementing phosphine fumigation by using a mathematical model, which comprises the following steps: 1. setting a phosphine target concentration and a fumigation target time, and performing first pesticide application; 2. detecting the concentration of phosphine, the concentration of phosphine after the first applicationThe fumigation time at or above the target concentration is the initial time t 0 Suspending the detection when the concentration reaches a maximum value on the Nth day and decays sequentially at least 2 times after the Nth day; 3.1, obtaining a phosphine concentration attenuation function according to the phosphine concentration attenuation model; 3.2 calculate the fumigation time t when the phosphine concentration decays to the target concentration n And predicting effective time T,3.3 when the effective time T is predicted<When the target time of fumigation is reached, supplementary pesticide application is carried out; repeating the steps 2 and 3 until the predicted value T of the effective fumigation time is not less than the target fumigation time, not supplementing the pesticide, and maintaining the fumigation until the fumigation is finished. The invention accurately and reliably facilitates the fumigation personnel to formulate and implement the phosphine fumigation strategy through the mathematical model.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of grain storage, in particular to a technology for carrying out phosphine fumigation and pest killing on grains.
Background
In the technical field of grain storage, grains are generally stored in a phosphine fumigation mode, so that the grains are prevented from being invaded by pests, and the common fumigation steps are as follows: step 1, setting phosphine target concentration and fumigation sealing time according to GB/T29890-2013 'grain and oil storage technical Specification' table E.1, wherein 'phosphine fumigation minimum effective concentrations of different insect species in different sealing time at different temperatures' is regulated, and when the temperature of a fumigation environment is 20-25 ℃, the phosphine fumigation minimum effective concentration is required to be 350mL/m 3 The fumigation time should exceed 14d,300mL/m 3 It should exceed 21d,250mL/m 3 Should exceed 28d; designing the first dosage of the fumigation medicament according to the volume of the fumigation environment and the set target concentration of phosphine, considering factors such as grain stack adsorption, warehouse leakage and the like, applying the fumigation medicament into the fumigation environment according to the dosage, and fumigating the fumigation environment with the phosphine; step 2, monitoring the concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment according to the situation from the beginning of drug application, generally detecting once every 0.5 to 2 days, and adding the concentration of phosphine to the target concentration value of phosphine when detecting that the concentration of phosphine is attenuated to the target concentration value of phosphine in the set fumigation closed timeAt present, the fumigation environment is supplemented with the medicine, so that the concentration of the phosphine is continuously maintained above the target concentration, the medicine dosage during the supplement medicine application is at least 40 percent of the first medicine dosage and does not exceed the first medicine dosage at most, so that the concentration of the phosphine is maintained above the target concentration for a long time, and the medicine is not excessively applied; and 3, repeating the step 2 to perform supplementary pesticide application for multiple times, wherein the supplementary pesticide application is usually performed for 1 to 3 times until the total time that the concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment is not lower than the target concentration reaches the sealing time requirement specified in GB/T29890-2013 'grain and oil storage technical Specification' table E.1, and ending the fumigation. The disadvantages of the fumigation method are that: 1. the concentration of the phosphine needs to be detected for many times, but the fumigation time is long and at least more than 14 days, so that the defect of large workload for detecting the concentration of the phosphine exists; 2. whether supplementary pesticide application is carried out or not is determined by detecting the concentration of phosphine, and the situation that supplementary pesticide application is carried out only when the concentration of phosphine is lower than the lowest effective concentration is easy to happen, so that the effective implementation of phosphine fumigation is not facilitated.
Based on the defects, the change rule of the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment is very necessary to be researched so as to achieve the purposes of accurately predicting the phosphine concentration and timely supplementing the pesticide application to ensure effective implementation of fumigation. The domestic and foreign reports on the evolution law of phosphine concentration along with the extension of fumigation time mainly comprise a grain pile internal distribution model established on the basis of convection diffusion and adsorption characteristics of fumigation medicaments and a grain pile fumigation medicament average concentration along with time change model, and the models are more in variety, are difficult to provide clear guidance for actual fumigation work, have the defect of difficult application and are necessary to be improved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for effectively implementing phosphine fumigation by using a mathematical model, which accurately and reliably predicts the phosphine concentration change in the fumigation process through the mathematical model, reduces the detection workload during fumigation, facilitates fumigation workers to timely make and implement a phosphine fumigation strategy and ensures the effective implementation of phosphine fumigation operation.
The purpose of the invention can be realized by the following technical scheme:
a method for effectively implementing phosphine fumigation by using a mathematical model, comprising the following steps:
step 1, setting a phosphine target concentration and a fumigation target time according to the prior art, calculating the first dosage of a fumigation medicament, and applying the fumigation medicament into a fumigation environment.
Step 2, detecting the concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment for multiple times from the beginning of pesticide application, and recording the concentration C of the phosphine detected each time and the corresponding fumigation time t, wherein the unit of C is mL/m 3 (ii) a the unit of t is d, and the fumigation time corresponding to the phosphine concentration reaching or higher than the target phosphine concentration after the first application is taken as the initial time t 0 And when the phosphine concentration reaches the maximum value on the N day of fumigation and the phosphine concentrations continuously detected for at least 2 times after the N day are detected to be attenuated in sequence, suspending the detection of the phosphine concentration.
And 3, predicting and regulating the effective fumigation concentration of the phosphine in the fumigation environment.
And 3.1, obtaining a phosphine concentration attenuation function according to the phosphine concentration attenuation model.
The phosphine concentration attenuation model is C = ae -bt Wherein C is the concentration of phosphine in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, and the unit is d; e is a natural index; a and b are constants; and (3) calculating specific values of a and b according to the phosphine concentration attenuation model and the phosphine concentrations detected in the step (2) at and after the Nth day to obtain a phosphine concentration attenuation function.
Step 3.2, calculating the corresponding fumigation time t when the concentration of phosphine is attenuated to the target concentration of phosphine according to the phosphine concentration attenuation function obtained in the step 3.1 n And predicting effective fumigation time to obtain predicted value T, T = T n ﹣t 0 。
Step 3.3, regulating and controlling the effective fumigation concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment, and predicting the value T when the effective fumigation time<When fumigating the target time, carry on and supplement the medicine application, specifically: at the t th n X is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 2 in-x days, and the dosage is t n Applying the mixture into fumigation environment for x days, wherein the supplementary dosage is 40-100% of the first dosage, and the phosphine in the fumigation environment is concentratedThe degree is continuously maintained above the target concentration, and effective phosphine fumigation in a fumigation environment is realized.
Repeating the step 2 and the step 3 until the predicted value T of the effective fumigation time is not less than the target fumigation time, no additional medicine is applied, and the fumigation is maintained until the effective fumigation time in the fumigation environment reaches the target fumigation time, and the fumigation is finished.
Optimization scheme, the initial time t in the invention 0 Can be predicted by the following steps:
and step A, obtaining a phosphine concentration increasing function according to a phosphine concentration increasing model.
The phosphine concentration rise model is C = alpha t 3 +βt 2 + gamma.t, where C is the phosphine concentration in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, and the unit is d; α, β and γ are constants.
And (3) calculating specific values of alpha, beta and gamma according to the phosphine concentration rising model and the phosphine concentration detected before the Nth day in the step (2) to obtain a phosphine concentration rising function.
Step B, calculating corresponding fumigation time t when the concentration of the phosphine is increased to the target concentration of the phosphine according to the phosphine concentration increasing function established in the step A 0 。
In the further optimization scheme, the target concentration of phosphine is set according to the lowest effective concentration of phosphine fumigation in the table E.1 of GB/T29890-2013 'grain and oil storage technical Specification', and the target time of fumigation is set corresponding to the closed time.
The principle of establishing the phosphine concentration attenuation model in the invention is as follows:
a high and large horizontal warehouse in a certain grain depot in Guangzhou is taken as a modeling test warehouse, and the basic fumigation condition of the modeling test warehouse is as follows: total volume of the warehouse 5373m 3 Volume of grain pile 4300m 3 Spatial volume 1073m 3 (ii) a The stored grain variety is three-grade early indica rice, the grain quantity is 2294t, the impurity content is 0.9 percent, and the water content is 12.0 percent; the temperature of the barn before fumigation is 30.3 ℃, the humidity of the barn is 74.8 percent, the average grain temperature is 23.5 ℃, and the lowest grain temperature is 22.3 ℃; the closed fumigation mode is grain surface film-covering fumigation, the application mode is grain surface application, and unit application of aluminium phosphideThe amount is 8g/m 3 The chamber pressure half-life is 158s.
The four corners and the center of the surface layer of the grain pile in the modeling test warehouse are provided with 5 gas sampling points totally, the depth is 30-50 cm below the grain surface, the gas sampling points are led to a phosphine gas detection box outside the warehouse by a rubber pipe to detect the concentration of phosphine, the concentration of the phosphine is the average value of the concentration of the phosphine of the 5 gas sampling points detected each time, and the detection result is shown in a table 1. No additional applications were performed throughout the fumigation period.
According to the phosphine gas concentrations corresponding to different fumigation times in table 1, a graph of the change trend of the phosphine concentration with the fumigation time as abscissa and the phosphine concentration as ordinate is drawn, as shown in fig. 1. As can be seen from Table 1 and FIG. 1, the phosphine concentration gradually increased with the time of fumigation from the start of administration and reached a maximum of 692.2mL/m on the 9 th day of fumigation 3 (ii) a Subsequently, the phosphine concentration gradually decayed to 33.6mL/m on the 45 th day of fumigation 3 . This indicates that: (1) After application, the phosphine gas released by the aluminum phosphide gradually diffuses in the grain pile, the concentration of the phosphine in the grain pile gradually rises along with the extension of the fumigation time under a certain dosage, and reaches the highest value on the 9 th day of fumigation, belonging to the phosphine rising stage; (2) After the 9 th day of fumigation, the phosphine concentration gradually decays along with the increase of the fumigation time due to the air tightness limitation of the warehouse, and belongs to the phosphine decay stage.
With reference to fig. 2, the maximum phosphine concentration demarcation points on the 9 th day of fumigation are respectively established as follows: (1) The change trend relationship between the phosphine concentration C and the fumigation time t in the phosphine rising stage is that a fitting curve of the phosphine rising stage is made according to the phosphine concentration C detected from the 0 th day (the application start) to the 9 th day of fumigation, and the result shows that the concentration C and the fumigation time t in the phosphine rising stage followC=2.62t 3 -44.50t 2 +264.87t（R 2 = 0.96024) for predicting phosphine concentration at the phosphine up stageC and corresponding numerical value of fumigation time t, wherein the fumigation time t is calculated on the day of first administration; (2) The variation trend relation of the phosphine concentration C and the fumigation time t in the phosphine attenuation stage is characterized in that the phosphine concentration C detected from 9 th to 45 th days of fumigation is used for preparing a fitting curve of the phosphine attenuation stage, and the result shows that the concentration C and the fumigation time t in the phosphine attenuation stage follow the fumigation time tC=1649.1e t-0.08089 （R 2 = 0.9778) for predicting the respective values of phosphine concentration C in the phosphine rise phase and of the fumigation time t, calculated on the day of the first administration.
Based on the phosphine concentration C and the fumigation time t in the fumigation process, the following fitting curves are respectively established: (1) Phosphine concentration increase model in phosphine increase stage: c = α t 3 +βt 2 + gamma.t, where C is the phosphine concentration in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, the unit is d, and the calculation is started on the day of first application; α, β and γ are constants; (2) The phosphine concentration decay model of the phosphine decay stage is C = ae -bt Wherein C is the concentration of phosphine in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, the unit is d, and the calculation is started on the day of first application; e is a natural index; a and b are constants.
Further, the data quantity required for making a fitting curve of the phosphine attenuation stage by definitely applying a phosphine concentration attenuation model is as follows: 3 to 8 groups of data of phosphine concentrations corresponding to 9 days to 37 days of fumigation are respectively taken to prepare fitting curves of the phosphine attenuation stage, and correlation analysis is carried out on the phosphine concentration detection value and the phosphine concentration predicted value calculated by each fitting curve, which is shown in table 2. The phosphine concentration detection value of 28 days by fumigation is 194.6mL/m 3 Absolute error analysis was performed with the predicted values calculated for each fitted curve, and the results are shown in table 3.
As can be seen from Table 2, different data volumes are adopted to prepare the fitted curves of the phosphine attenuation stage, and the correlation r between the predicted value and the detected value of the phosphine concentration at the 28 th day is greater than 0.98, which shows that the fitted curves of the phosphine attenuation stage prepared by adopting 3 to 8 data volumes can be used for the concentration prediction of the phosphine attenuation stage. As can be seen from table 3, the absolute error between the predicted value and the detected value of the fitting curve made from 3 sets of data amounts is the largest, and the absolute error gradually decreases with the gradual increase of the data amount, so that after the phosphine concentration is detected to reach the maximum value, the fitting curve at the phosphine attenuation stage can be made by performing phosphine detection for 2 times, and used for the phosphine concentration prediction, and the more the detected data amount is, the higher the accuracy of the phosphine concentration predicted by the fitting curve at the phosphine attenuation stage is.
The invention has the following prominent substantive features and remarkable progress.
1. According to the method, the phosphine concentration value is accurately predicted through the mathematical model, a large amount of detection work is not needed, the fumigation workload is effectively reduced, and the fumigation operation efficiency is improved.
2. According to the invention, the fumigation time when the concentration of the phosphine is attenuated to the minimum effective concentration for fumigation is accurately predicted through the phosphine concentration attenuation model, so that staff can make preparation for supplementing and applying the pesticide in time, and can implement the supplementing and applying the pesticide in time, and effective fumigation operation is ensured.
3. The method accurately predicts the initial time point of effective fumigation of the phosphine through the phosphine concentration rising model, is used for accurately predicting the effective fumigation time, is convenient for workers to determine whether to supplement the pesticide application or not, and further ensures the effective implementation of the fumigation action.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a graph of the change of phosphine concentration with time of fumigation during fumigation in a modeling test chamber.
Figure 2 is a graph of a fit of the phosphine generation phase and the phosphine decay phase during fumigation in a modeling test chamber.
FIG. 3 is a graph showing the decay function of phosphine concentration after each administration in example 1.
FIG. 4 is a graph showing the increase function of the phosphine concentration after the first application in example 2.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further explained with reference to the drawings.
Example 1
Taking the case of storing grains by fumigating phosphine in a high and large horizontal warehouse in a certain grain warehouse in Guangzhou, the basic fumigation conditions of the high and large horizontal warehouse are as follows: total volume 7776m of warehouse 3 Volume of grain bulk 6300m 3 Spatial volume 1476m 3 (ii) a The stored grain varieties are all three-grade early indica rice; the number of the paddy in the bin is 3487t, the impurities are 1.0 percent, and the water content is 12.3 percent; the temperature of the barn before fumigation is 20.8 ℃, the humidity of the barn is 75.7 percent, the average grain temperature is 20.7 ℃, and the lowest grain temperature is 18.9 ℃; the pressure half-life period (500-250 Pa) of the empty warehouse is 105s.
The method for effectively implementing the phosphine fumigation by using the mathematical model effectively predicts the concentration of the phosphine in the fumigation process, makes and implements a scheme for regulating and controlling the concentration of the phosphine, and comprises the following steps:
step 1, setting phosphine target concentration and fumigation target time according to the prior art;
the average grain temperature in the warehouse of the embodiment is 20.7 ℃, the main pests belong to sensitive pests, and according to the GB/T29890-2013 'grain and oil storage technical Specification' Table E.1, the minimum effective concentration of phosphine fumigation is 200mL/m when the warehouse is sealed for more than 21 days 3 Setting the target concentration of phosphine at 200mL/m 3 The target time of fumigation is 22d;
calculating the first dosage of aluminum phosphide for first application, and designing the first dosage of the aluminum phosphide to be 5g/m according to the target concentration of phosphine and considering factors such as grain stack adsorption and warehouse leakage 3 Namely, 5g of aluminum phosphide is applied to each cubic meter in the warehouse, and a closed fumigation mode of aluminum phosphide grain surface application and full-warehouse circulation fumigation is specifically adopted.
Step 2, detecting the concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment for multiple times from the beginning of pesticide application, and recording the concentration C of the phosphine detected each time and the corresponding concentration CFumigating time t, wherein C is mL/m 3 (ii) a the unit of t is d, and the fumigation time corresponding to the phosphine concentration reaching or higher than the target phosphine concentration after the first application is taken as the initial time t 0 . The time interval for detecting the concentration of phosphine is mainly determined according to the airtightness condition of the warehouse, and the time interval for detection can be properly prolonged due to good airtightness.
Specifically, as shown in Table 4, the concentration of phosphine was 244.0 mL/m on the 0.8 day of fumigation 3 200mL/m higher than the target concentration of phosphine 3 Initial time of fumigation t 0 =0.8d, detecting that the phosphine concentration reaches the maximum value on the 3.8 th day of fumigation, and the phosphine concentrations continuously detected for 3 times on the 4.8 th day, the 5.8 th day and the 7.8 th day are attenuated in sequence, and then suspending the phosphine concentration detection;
step 3, predicting and regulating the effective fumigation concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment;
step 3.1, obtaining a phosphine concentration attenuation function according to the phosphine concentration attenuation model;
the phosphine concentration attenuation model is C = ae -bt Wherein C is the concentration of phosphine in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, and the unit is d; e is a natural index; a and b are constants;
calculating specific values of a and b by using a least square method mathematical calculation principle according to a phosphine concentration attenuation model and phosphine concentrations detected from 3.8 days to 7.8 days in the step 2 to obtain a phosphine concentration attenuation function with C =1106.6e -0.1640t See in particular fig. 3;
step 3.2, phosphine concentration decay function C =1106.6e obtained from step 3.1 -0.1640t Calculating the degradation of the concentration of phosphine to the target concentration of phosphine of 200mL/m 3 Time corresponding to fumigation time t n Is 10.4d, and predicts effective time of fumigation and predicts predicted value T, T = (T) n ﹣t 0 ）=（10.4d﹣0.8d）=9.6d；
Step 3.3, regulating and controlling the effective fumigation concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment, wherein the predicted value T of the effective fumigation time is 9.6d and is less than the target fumigation time 22d, and supplementary pesticide application is required, and the method specifically comprises the following steps: at the t th n X is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 2 in-x days, and the dosage is t n Applied to fumigation environment for x days, the supplementary dosage is 40-100% of the first dosage, in this embodiment 2g/m 3 The supplementary dosage is applied into the fumigation environment at 8.8 days to continuously maintain the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment at a target concentration of 200mL/m 3 Therefore, effective phosphine fumigation in a fumigation environment is realized.
In the embodiment, the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment is detected to be 253.3 mL/m before the additional drug application on the 8.8 th day of fumigation 3 Slightly higher than the target concentration by 200mL/m 3 The fact that the supplementary drug application is carried out on the 8.8 th day of fumigation accords with the actual fumigation condition effectively proves that the concentration decay function of phosphine is formulated on the t th day n The rationality of supplementary pesticide application is carried out on-x days and x is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 2.
After the supplementary drug application, the following steps are carried out in sequence:
(1) According to the mode of the step 2, the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment is detected for a plurality of times from the supplement of the pesticide application, and the details are shown in a table 5; detecting that the concentration of phosphine reaches the maximum value on 11.8 days of fumigation, sequentially attenuating the concentration of phosphine continuously detected for 3 times from 12.8 days to 15.8 days, and then suspending the detection of the concentration of phosphine;
(2) According to the mode of step 3.1, specific values of a and b are calculated by adopting a least square method mathematical calculation principle according to a phosphine concentration attenuation model and phosphine concentrations detected from 11.8 days to 15.8 days, and the phosphine concentration attenuation function after supplementary administration is obtained and is C =1677.4e -0.1069t In particular, see fig. 3;
in the manner of step 3.2, the decay function C =1677.4e is based on the phosphine concentration -0.1069t Calculating the supplementary administrationThen, the concentration of phosphine was reduced to 200mL/m, which is the target concentration of phosphine 3 Time corresponding to fumigation time t n Is 19.9 d, and predicts effective time of fumigation and predicts T = (T) n ﹣t 0 ）=（19.9d﹣0.8d）=19.1d；
According to the mode of step 3.3, the predicted value T of the effective fumigation time is 19.1d and is less than the target fumigation time 22d, and the medicine needs to be applied again in a supplementary mode, specifically according to the ratio of 2g/m 3 The supplementary dosage is applied into the fumigation environment at 17.9 days to continuously maintain the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment at a target concentration of 200mL/m 3 Therefore, effective phosphine fumigation in the fumigation environment is realized.
In the embodiment, the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment is detected to be 248.0mL/m before the additional drug application on the 17.9 th day of fumigation 3 Slightly higher than the target concentration by 200mL/m 3 The fact that the supplementary drug application is carried out on 17.9 days of fumigation accords with the actual fumigation condition effectively proves that the concentration decay function of phosphine is formulated on the t < th > th n The rationality of supplementary pesticide application is carried out on-x days and x is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 2.
After the medicine is applied again, the following steps are carried out in sequence:
(1) According to the mode of the step 2, the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment is detected for a plurality of times from the beginning of replenishing the pesticide application again, and the details are shown in table 6; detecting that the concentration of phosphine reaches the maximum value on 18.8 days of fumigation, sequentially attenuating the concentration of phosphine continuously detected for 3 times from 19.8 days to 21.8 days, and then suspending the detection of the concentration of phosphine;
(2) According to the mode of step 3.1, specific numerical values of a and b are calculated by adopting a least square method mathematical calculation principle according to a phosphine concentration attenuation model and phosphine concentrations detected from 18.8 days to 21.8 days in step 1, and a phosphine concentration attenuation function with C =1108.71e is obtained -0.0485t See in particular fig. 3;
in the manner of step 3.2, the decay function C =11 is used as a function of the phosphine concentration08.71e -0.0485t Calculating the concentration of phosphine decayed to 200mL/m after the drug is supplemented again 3 Time corresponding to fumigation time t n 35.3 d, and fumigant effective time predicted value T = (T) n ﹣t 0 ）=（35.3d﹣0.8d）=34.5d。
According to the mode of the step 3.3, the predicted value T of the effective fumigation time is 34.5d and is greater than the target fumigation time 22d, the medicine is not supplemented, the fumigation is maintained, the effective fumigation time of the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment is 22.2 days when the fumigation is carried out for 23 days, the target fumigation time is reached for 22 days, and the fumigation is finished.
In the embodiment, the phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment is detected to be 331.5mL/m on the 23.8 th day of fumigation 3 Far higher than the target concentration of 200mL/m 3 After the medicine is supplemented again, the medicine does not need to be supplemented and applied to accord with the actual fumigation condition, and the rationality of the fumigation scheme formulated by the phosphine concentration attenuation function is effectively proved.
Example 2
Referring to fig. 4, the method for effectively performing fumigation of phosphine using a mathematical model of the present example is different from example 1 in the initial time t of step 3.3 0 Obtained by the following predictions.
Step A, obtaining a phosphine concentration rising function according to a phosphine concentration rising model;
the phosphine concentration rise model is C = alpha t 3 +βt 2 + gamma.t, where C is the phosphine concentration in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, and the unit is d; α, β and γ are constants;
according to the phosphine concentration increase model and the phosphine concentrations detected before the 3.8 th day and the 3.8 th day in the step 2, specifically as shown in table 4, specific values of α, β and γ are calculated to obtain a phosphine concentration increase function C = 9.95t 3 - 98.02t 2 + 383.28t；
Step B, according to the stepThe phosphine concentration rising function C = 9.95t established in step A 3 - 98.02t 2 + 383.28t, calculating the concentration of phosphine increased to 200mL/m after the first application 3 Time corresponding to fumigation time t 0 Is 0.6d.
The other steps in the method of this embodiment are completely the same as those in embodiment 1, and the predicted value T of effective fumigation time after each application is calculated according to the initial time of effective fumigation with phosphine of 0.6d, see table 8, a fumigation scheme is formulated, and when fumigation is completed for 23 days, the effective fumigation time of concentration fumigation with phosphine in the fumigation environment is 22.4 days, and the target fumigation time is 22 days, and then the fumigation is finished.
Claims (3)
1. The method for effectively implementing the fumigation of the phosphine by utilizing the mathematical model is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, setting a phosphine target concentration and a fumigation target time according to the prior art, calculating the first dosage of a fumigation medicament, and applying the fumigation medicament into a fumigation environment;
step 2, detecting phosphine concentration in the fumigation environment for multiple times from the beginning of pesticide application, and recording the phosphine concentration C detected each time and the corresponding fumigation time t, wherein the unit of C is mL/m 3 (ii) a the unit of t is d, and the fumigation time corresponding to the phosphine concentration reaching or higher than the target phosphine concentration after the first application is taken as the initial time t 0 When the phosphine concentration reaches the maximum value on the N day of fumigation and the phosphine concentrations continuously detected for at least 2 times after the N day are sequentially attenuated, suspending the phosphine concentration detection;
step 3, predicting and regulating the effective fumigation concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment;
step 3.1, obtaining a phosphine concentration attenuation function according to the phosphine concentration attenuation model;
the phosphine concentration attenuation model is C = ae -bt Wherein C is the concentration of phosphine in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, and the unit is d; e is a natural index; a and b are constants; calculating specific numerical values of a and b according to the phosphine concentration attenuation model and the phosphine concentrations detected in the step 2 on the Nth day and after the Nth day to obtain a phosphine concentration attenuation function;
step 3.2, calculating the corresponding fumigation time t when the concentration of phosphine is attenuated to the target concentration of phosphine according to the phosphine concentration attenuation function obtained in the step 3.1 n Predicting effective time of fumigation to obtain predicted value T, T = T n ﹣t 0 ；
Step 3.3, regulating and controlling the effective fumigation concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment, and predicting the value T when the effective fumigation time<When fumigating the target time, carry on and supplement the medicine application, specifically: at the t-th n X is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 2 in-x days, and the dosage is t n Applying the mixture into a fumigation environment for x days, wherein the supplementary dosage is 40-100% of the first dosage, so that the concentration of phosphine in the fumigation environment is continuously maintained above a target concentration, and effective phosphine fumigation in the fumigation environment is realized;
repeating the step 2 and the step 3 until the predicted value T of the effective fumigation time is not less than the target fumigation time, no additional medicine is applied, and the fumigation is maintained until the effective fumigation time in the fumigation environment reaches the target fumigation time, and the fumigation is finished.
2. The method of claim 1 for efficient phosphine fumigation using a mathematical model, wherein the initial time t is 0 Predicted by the following steps:
step A, obtaining a phosphine concentration rising function according to a phosphine concentration rising model;
the phosphine concentration rise model is C = alpha t 3 +βt 2 + gamma.t, where C is the phosphine concentration in mL/m 3 (ii) a t is the fumigation time, and the unit is d; α, β and γ are constants;
calculating specific values of alpha, beta and gamma according to the phosphine concentration rising model and the phosphine concentration detected before the Nth day in the step 2 to obtain a phosphine concentration rising function;
step B, building according to the step ACalculating the corresponding fumigation time t when the concentration of phosphine is increased to the target concentration of phosphine by using the vertical phosphine concentration increasing function 0 。
3. The method for efficiently performing fumigation of phosphine using a mathematical model as defined in claim 1 or 2, wherein: the target concentration of phosphine is set according to the lowest effective concentration of phosphine fumigation in the table E.1 of GB/T29890-2013 'grain and oil storage technical Specifications', and the target time of fumigation is set corresponding to the sealing time.
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| DE69028413T2 (en) * | 1989-06-27 | 1997-04-17 | Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation, Campbell | METHOD FOR FUMING PHOSPHINE |
| US5069061A (en) * | 1989-12-29 | 1991-12-03 | The United States Of America As Represented By The Secretary Of Agriculture | Estimation of fumigant residues in commodities |
| US5403597A (en) * | 1993-11-22 | 1995-04-04 | Mueller; David K. | Low concentration phosphine fumigation method |
| JPH0925207A (en) * | 1995-07-13 | 1997-01-28 | Degeshiyu Japan Kk | Fumigation |
| CN1857074B (en) * | 2006-04-10 | 2011-08-10 | 广东省粮食科学研究所 | Biological preventing and controlling agent for pests of storage grain |
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| KR101469943B1 (en) * | 2013-03-25 | 2014-12-09 | (주)푸르고팜 | ClO2 GAS FUMIGATION APPARATUS, AND FUMIGATATION METHOD BY THE SAME |
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