CN107862547A - Launch appraisal procedure, medium, device and the computing device of channel - Google Patents
Launch appraisal procedure, medium, device and the computing device of channel Download PDFInfo
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- CN107862547A CN107862547A CN201711070504.0A CN201711070504A CN107862547A CN 107862547 A CN107862547 A CN 107862547A CN 201711070504 A CN201711070504 A CN 201711070504A CN 107862547 A CN107862547 A CN 107862547A
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Abstract
Embodiments of the present invention provide a kind of appraisal procedure, medium, device and computing device for launching channel.The appraisal procedure of the dispensing channel includes：Obtain the history payment data for the user that each dispensing channel is transformed；According to the history payment data, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel；Based on each rate of return on investment for launching channel, each dispensing effect for launching channel is assessed.The technical scheme of the embodiment of the present invention can be by relatively normalized index come the dispensing effect of each channel of rapid evaluation, and then extension worker can be helped to adjust dispensing plan in time, improves cost-benefit ratio.
Description
Technical field
Embodiments of the present invention are related to communication and field of computer technology, more specifically, embodiments of the present invention relate to
And launch appraisal procedure, medium, device and the computing device of channel.
Background technology
This part is it is intended that the embodiments of the present invention stated in claims provide background or context.Herein
Description recognizes it is prior art not because not being included in this part.
Channel dispensing is the Main Means that platform expands new user, and each channel, which is launched, to be required for spending cost, therefore right
For product, it should the dispensing dynamics of the increase channel good to effect, and reduce as far as possible or cancel the channel to effect difference
Dispensing so that cost-benefit maximize.
The index that currently used supervision channel launches effect is LTV (Life Time Value, life cycle total price
Value), if it is desired to real LTV is known, it is necessary to wait for quite a long time, therefore LTV is prediction in most cases.
The content of the invention
But due to being related to multiple support channels, and (cost per install, single are mounted to the CPI of each channel
This) and differ, if therefore the LTV indexs of each channel are provided, extension worker can not be allowed quickly to recognize each channel
Launch effect.
Therefore, be highly desirable to it is a kind of it is improved launch channel evaluation scheme, can by relatively normalized index come
The dispensing effect of rapid evaluation channel.
In the present context, embodiments of the present invention it is expected to provide a kind of appraisal procedure for launching channel, medium, device
And computing device.
In the first aspect of embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a kind of appraisal procedure for launching channel, including：Obtain each
The individual history payment data for launching the user that channel is transformed；According to the history payment data, each dispensing is predicted
The rate of return on investment of channel；Based on each rate of return on investment for launching channel, each dispensing for launching channel is assessed
Effect.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, according to the history payment data, predict described each
The individual rate of return on investment for launching channel, including：According to the history payment data, identification each dispensing channel is transformed
User in payment amount be more than predetermined value targeted customer；Payment data and each dispensing based on the targeted customer
The payment data for the other users that channel is transformed, the rate of return on investment of the targeted customer and other described use are predicted respectively
The rate of return on investment at family；According to each rate of return on investment for launching the targeted customer that channel is transformed and other described use
The rate of return on investment at family, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, according to the history payment data, identify described each
Payment amount is more than the targeted customer of predetermined value in the individual user for launching channel and being transformed, including：For any dispensing channel,
The payment amount that any dispensing channel according to the history payment data predicts cut-off current time may be transformed is big
In the first kind user of the predetermined value；Obtain the actual payment gold being transformed of any dispensing channel described in cut-off current time
Volume is more than the second class user of the predetermined value；It is described any according to the first kind user and the second class user, identification
Launch the targeted customer that channel is transformed.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, worked as according to history payment data prediction cut-off
The payment amount that any dispensing channel described in the preceding time may be transformed is more than the first kind user of the predetermined value, including：
According to the history payment data, targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel is determined；According to any throwing
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to channel is put, any dispensing channel described in prediction cut-off current time may be transformed described
First kind user.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, according to the history payment data, it is determined that described
One launches targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to channel, including：Judging the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed is
It is no to be more than or equal to predetermined quantity, and judge whether there is the target to use in any user for launching channel and being transformed
Family；It is more than or equal to the predetermined quantity in the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed and wherein has described
During targeted customer, the number of users and the quantity of targeted customer therein that are transformed according to any dispensing channel, calculate
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, according to the history payment data, it is determined that described
One launches targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to channel, in addition to：It is small in the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed
It is more than or equal to the predetermined number when predetermined quantity, or in the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed
Amount and during without the targeted customer, according to determining targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to each dispensing channel
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, according to target corresponding to each dispensing channel
User's conversion ratio determines targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel, including：Calculate each dispensing channel
The average of corresponding targeted customer's conversion ratio；Using the average as targeted customer's conversion corresponding to any dispensing channel
Rate.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, according to the first kind user and second class
User, identification any targeted customer for launching channel and being transformed, including：If the number of the second class user is big
In or equal to the first kind user number, then by the second class user's identification for it is described it is any dispensing channel be transformed
The targeted customer；If the number of the second class user is less than the number of the first kind user, by the first kind
The user of specified quantity in user and the second class user's identification are any mesh launched channel and be transformed
Mark user, wherein, the specified quantity for the first kind user number and the second class user number difference.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, based on the payment data of the targeted customer, prediction
The rate of return on investment of the targeted customer, including：Based on the payment data of the targeted customer, each target is predicted respectively
The rate of return on investment of user.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, based on the payment data of the other users, prediction
The rate of return on investment of the other users, including：Based on the payment data of the other users, all other users are predicted
Overall rate of return on investment.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, it is transformed according to each dispensing channel
The rate of return on investment of the rate of return on investment of targeted customer and the other users, prediction each investment repayment for launching channel
Rate, including：To each rate of return on investment of the targeted customer that channel is transformed and other users of launching
Rate of return on investment carries out cumulative summation, to obtain each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, the mesh is predicted respectively according to linear regression algorithm
Mark the rate of return on investment of user and the rate of return on investment of the other users.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, based on aforementioned schemes, each dispensing is obtained according to the predetermined cycle
The history payment data for the user that channel is transformed, regularly to update each investment repayment for launching channel of prediction
Rate.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, also included based on aforementioned schemes, described method：By way of chart
Show each rate of return on investment for launching channel predicted.
In the second aspect of embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a kind of medium, be stored thereon with program, the program is located
Manage the method realized when device performs as described in first aspect in above-mentioned embodiment.
In the third aspect of embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a kind of apparatus for evaluating for launching channel, including：Obtain single
Member, the history payment data for the user being transformed for obtaining each dispensing channel；Processing unit, for according to the history
Payment data, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel；Assessment unit, for based on each dispensing channel
Rate of return on investment, assess each dispensing effect for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, included based on aforementioned schemes, the processing unit：Recognition unit, it is used for
According to the history payment data, payment amount is more than predetermined value in identification each user for launching channel and being transformed
Targeted customer；First predicting unit, for the payment data based on the targeted customer and each dispensing channel conversion
The payment data for the other users come, predict that the investment of the rate of return on investment and the other users of the targeted customer is returned respectively
Report rate；Second predicting unit, for according to each rate of return on investment for launching the targeted customer that channel is transformed and institute
State the rate of return on investment of other users, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is based on aforementioned schemes, the identification cell configuration：For any dispensing
Channel, any payment gold launched channel and may be transformed according to the history payment data predicts cut-off current time
Volume is more than the first kind user of the predetermined value；Obtain any actual pair being transformed of dispensing channel described in cut-off current time
Take the second class user that the amount of money is more than the predetermined value；According to the first kind user and the second class user, described in identification
Any targeted customer for launching channel and being transformed.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is based on aforementioned schemes, the identification cell configuration：According to the history
Payment data, determine targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel；According to corresponding to any dispensing channel
Targeted customer's conversion ratio, any first kind user that launches channel and may be transformed described in prediction cut-off current time.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is based on aforementioned schemes, the identification cell configuration：Judge described any
Launch whether the number of users that channel is transformed is more than or equal to predetermined quantity, and judge any dispensing channel conversion
And whether there is the targeted customer in the user come；It is more than or equal in the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed
When the predetermined quantity and the wherein existing targeted customer, according to any number of users launched channel and be transformed
With the quantity of targeted customer therein, targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel is calculated.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is based on aforementioned schemes, the identification cell configuration：In any throwing
When putting the number of users that channel is transformed and being less than the predetermined quantity, or in any user for launching channel and being transformed
Quantity is more than or equal to the predetermined quantity and during without the targeted customer, corresponding according to each dispensing channel
Targeted customer's conversion ratio determine it is described it is any dispensing channel corresponding to targeted customer's conversion ratio.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is based on aforementioned schemes, the identification cell configuration：Calculate described each
Launch the average of targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to channel；Used the average as target corresponding to any dispensing channel
Family conversion ratio.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is based on aforementioned schemes, the identification cell configuration：If second class
The number of user is more than or equal to the number of the first kind user, then is any dispensing by the second class user's identification
The targeted customer that channel is transformed；If the number of the second class user is less than the number of the first kind user,
It is any dispensing channel conversion by the user of the specified quantity in the first kind user and the second class user's identification
And the targeted customer come, wherein, the specified quantity is the number of the first kind user with the second class user's
The difference of number.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, first predicting unit：Based on described
The payment data of targeted customer, the rate of return on investment of each targeted customer is predicted respectively.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, first predicting unit：Based on described
The payment data of other users, the overall rate of return on investment of all other users of prediction.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, second predicting unit：To described each
The rate of return on investment of the targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of the other users that individual dispensing channel is transformed are tired out
Add summation, to obtain each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, first predicting unit：According to linear
Regression algorithm predicts the rate of return on investment of the targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of the other users respectively.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the acquiring unit：According to predetermined week
Phase obtains each history payment data for launching the user that channel is transformed, so that processing unit timing updates in advance
The each rate of return on investment for launching channel surveyed.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, also included based on aforementioned schemes, described device：Display unit, it is used for
The each rate of return on investment for launching channel predicted is shown by way of chart.
In the fourth aspect of embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a kind of computing device, including：Processor and memory,
The memory storage has executable instruction, and the processor is used to call the executable instruction of the memory storage to perform such as
Method in above-mentioned embodiment described in first aspect.
It is each by obtaining according to appraisal procedure, medium, device and the computing device of the dispensing channel of embodiment of the present invention
The individual history payment data for launching the user that channel is transformed, according to each throwing for launching channel of history payment data prediction
Return rate is provided, each dispensing effect for launching channel is assessed with the rate of return on investment based on each dispensing channel, enabling logical
Cross relatively normalized index and carry out the dispensing effect of each channel of rapid evaluation, and then extension worker can be helped to adjust throwing in time
The plan of putting, improve cost-benefit ratio.
In the technical scheme that some embodiments of the present invention are provided, because payment amount is more than the target of predetermined value
User and other users differ greatly, therefore the targeted customer in the user being transformed by identifying each dispensing channel,
To predict the rate of return on investment of the rate of return on investment of targeted customer and other users respectively, and then the investment based on targeted customer is returned
The rate of return on investment of report rate and other users come predict it is each dispensing channel rate of return on investment, enabling improve what is predicted
The precision of rate of return on investment.
Brief description of the drawings
Detailed description below, above-mentioned and other mesh of exemplary embodiment of the invention are read by reference to accompanying drawing
, feature and advantage will become prone to understand.In the accompanying drawings, if showing the present invention's by way of example, and not by way of limitation
Dry embodiment, wherein：
Fig. 1 diagrammatically illustrates the flow chart of the appraisal procedure of dispensing channel according to an embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 2 diagrammatically illustrates a kind of flow chart of implementation of the step S12 shown in Fig. 1；
Fig. 3 shows the payment amount accounting schematic diagram of the targeted customer that certain channel is transformed and other users；
Fig. 4 diagrammatically illustrates a kind of flow chart of implementation of the step S121 shown in Fig. 2；
Fig. 5 diagrammatically illustrates the flow for the rich and influential family that identification any channel according to an embodiment of the invention is transformed
Figure；
Fig. 6 diagrammatically illustrates the ROI of certain channel of prediction according to an embodiment of the invention flow chart；
Fig. 7 diagrammatically illustrates each channel according to an embodiment of the invention predicted the non-rich and influential family's of certain day
ROI curves；
Fig. 8 diagrammatically illustrates the ROI of rich and influential family of each channel according to an embodiment of the invention predicted at certain day
Curve；
Fig. 9 shows that the form according to an embodiment of the invention by chart shows showing for prediction case and truth
It is intended to；
Figure 10 diagrammatically illustrates the block diagram of the apparatus for evaluating of dispensing channel according to an embodiment of the invention.
In the accompanying drawings, identical or corresponding label represents identical or corresponding part.
Embodiment
The principle and spirit of the present invention is described below with reference to some illustrative embodiments.It should be appreciated that provide this
A little embodiments are not with any just for the sake of better understood when those skilled in the art and then realize the present invention
Mode limits the scope of the present invention.On the contrary, these embodiments are provided so that the present invention is more thorough and complete, and energy
It enough will fully convey the scope of the invention to those skilled in the art.
One skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention can be implemented as a kind of system, device, equipment, method
Or computer program product.Therefore, the present invention can be implemented as following form, i.e.,：Complete hardware, complete software
(including firmware, resident software, microcode etc.), or the form that hardware and software combines.
According to the embodiment of the present invention, it is proposed that a kind of appraisal procedure, medium, device and calculating for launching channel is set
It is standby.
Herein, it is to be understood that involved term " rate of return on investment " is ROI (return on
Investment), refer to by investment and the value that should return.
Term " conversion ratio " refers in a measurement period, completes conversion behavior (such as effectively activation, registration, payment)
Number account for the ratio of the total number of clicks of promotion message.
In addition, any number of elements in accompanying drawing is used to example and unrestricted, and any name is only used for distinguishing,
Without any restrictions implication.
Below with reference to the principle and spirit of some representative embodiments of the present invention, in detail the explaination present invention.
Summary of the invention
The inventors discovered that at present by being all to be used as the index assessed channel and launch effect using LTV, still, by
In being related to multiple support channels, and the CPI of each channel and differ, if therefore the LTV indexs of each channel are provided, can not allow
Extension worker quickly recognizes the dispensing effect of each channel.
Therefore, embodiments of the present invention provide a kind of appraisal procedure, medium, device and calculating for launching channel and set
It is standby, can be by relatively normalized index come the dispensing effect of rapid evaluation channel, and then extension worker can be helped timely
Plan is launched in adjustment, improves cost-benefit ratio.
After the general principle of the present invention is described, lower mask body introduces the various non-limiting embodiment party of the present invention
Formula.
Application scenarios overview
Understand spirit and principles of the present invention it should be noted that following application scenarios are for only for ease of and show, this
The embodiment of invention is unrestricted in this regard.On the contrary, embodiments of the present invention can apply to it is applicable any
Scene.
After extension worker carries out dispensing popularization for multiple support channels, the dispensing effect of each dispensing channel is if desired assessed
Fruit, then the history payment data for the user that each dispensing channel can be transformed are input to using embodiment of the present invention
In the equipment for launching the appraisal procedure of channel, the history for the user that the equipment can be transformed according to each dispensing channel is paid
Data prediction is to each rate of return on investment for launching channel, and then extension worker can be according to each canal of prediction result rapid evaluation
The dispensing effect in road, and launch plan according to effect adjustment is launched.
Illustrative methods
With reference to above-mentioned application scenarios, the throwing according to exemplary embodiment of the invention is described referring to figs. 1 to Fig. 9
Put the appraisal procedure of channel.
Before the appraisal procedure of dispensing channel of embodiment of the present invention is introduced, it show part channel with reference to table 1 and turns
The user situation changed：
| Channel | Enrollment | Paying customer | Rich and influential family | Payment conversion ratio | High value conversion ratio |
| Channel 1 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 8.38% | 0.04% |
| Channel 2 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 21.85% | 0.24% |
| Channel 3 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 3.18% | 0.06% |
| Channel 4 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 3.95% | 0.05% |
| Channel 5 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 8.88% | 0.06% |
| Channel 6 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 10.95% | 0.07% |
| Channel 7 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 20.53% | 0.48% |
| Channel 8 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 6.59% | 0.07% |
| Channel 9 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 4.92% | 0.03% |
| Channel 10 | ***** | ***** | ***** | 0.88% | 0.01% |
Table 1
As shown in table 1, the different payment conversion ratios for launching channel differ greatly, so if being thrown without distinction
Put, then the problem of return rate will certainly being caused low, therefore, embodiments of the present invention propose the throwing to each dispensing channel
Money return rate is predicted, described in detail below to assess the scheme of each dispensing channel based on prediction result：
Fig. 1 diagrammatically illustrates the flow chart of the appraisal procedure of dispensing channel according to an embodiment of the invention.
Shown in reference picture 1, the appraisal procedure according to an embodiment of the invention for launching channel, including：
Step S10, obtain each history payment data for launching the user that channel is transformed；
Step S12, according to the history payment data, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel；
Step S14, based on each rate of return on investment for launching channel, assess each dispensing effect for launching channel
Fruit.
The appraisal procedure of dispensing channel shown in Fig. 1 can carry out each channel of rapid evaluation with relatively normalized index
Effect is launched, and then extension worker can be helped to adjust dispensing plan in time, improves cost-benefit ratio.
Details, which is described in detail, to be realized to each step shown in Fig. 1 below：
For step S10, in embodiments of the invention, each dispensing channel conversion can be obtained according to the predetermined cycle
And the history payment data of the user come, and then can update what is predicted based on the history payment data being periodically obtaining
Each rate of return on investment for launching channel, to provide reference to extension worker.It is alternatively possible to all obtain above-mentioned history daily
Payment data, and then the rate of return on investment that can be predicted daily.
For step S12, in an exemplary embodiment of the present invention, shown in reference picture 2, may include steps of：
Step S121, according to the history payment data, paid in identification each user for launching channel and being transformed
Take the targeted customer that the amount of money is more than predetermined value.
In an embodiment of the present invention, although the accounting of targeted customer is very low, the recharge amount of targeted customer can be with
Reverse the performance of statistics.The accounting distribution of targeted customer and other users payment amount is illustrated in figure 3, can be with from Fig. 3
Find out, the payment amount more and more higher of targeted customer, reached total payment amount within 201707 and 201708 this periods
More than 90%, and the total number of persons of targeted customer may only account for the 1.24% of total paying customer's number.
It can be seen that because payment amount is more than the targeted customer of predetermined value and differing greatly for other users, therefore in order to carry
The precision for the rate of return on investment that height predicts is, it is necessary to targeted customer be identified, with for targeted customer and other users point
Do not handled.Alternatively, in embodiments of the present invention, can be using user of the payment amount more than 1000 yuan as target
User.
Shown in reference picture 4, according to the exemplary embodiment of the present invention, step S121 includes：
Step S1211, for any dispensing channel, appoint according to the history payment data predicts cut-off current time
The payment amount that one dispensing channel may be transformed is more than the first kind user of the predetermined value.
In an exemplary embodiment of the present invention embodiment, step S1211 includes：According to the history payment data, institute is determined
State targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel；According to it is described it is any dispensing channel corresponding to targeted customer's conversion ratio,
Any first kind user that launches channel and may be transformed described in prediction cut-off current time.
In embodiments of the present invention, targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel is determined in step S1211,
Including：
Judge whether the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed is more than or equal to predetermined quantity, and judge
Whether there is the targeted customer in any user for launching channel and being transformed；
It is more than or equal to the predetermined quantity and wherein existing in any number of users for being transformed of channel of launching
During the targeted customer, the number of users and the quantity of targeted customer therein that are transformed according to any dispensing channel,
Calculate targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel；
When the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed is less than the predetermined quantity, or in any throwing
Put the number of users that channel is transformed and be more than or equal to the predetermined quantity and during without the targeted customer, according to
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to each dispensing channel determines targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
It is alternatively possible to using the average of targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to each dispensing channel as corresponding to any dispensing channel
Targeted customer's conversion ratio.
Step S1212, obtain any dispensing actual payment amount being transformed of channel described in cut-off current time and be more than
Second class user of the predetermined value.
Step S1213, according to the first kind user and the second class user, identification any dispensing channel conversion
And the targeted customer come.
In an exemplary embodiment of the present invention embodiment, step S1213 includes：If the number of the second class user be more than or
Then it is any institute launched channel and be transformed by the second class user's identification equal to the number of the first kind user
State targeted customer；If the number of the second class user is less than the number of the first kind user, by the first kind user
In specified quantity user and the second class user's identification used for any target for being transformed of channel of launching
Family, wherein, the specified quantity for the first kind user number and the second class user number difference.
For the ease of understand in step S121 identify targeted customer process, below using rich and influential family as targeted customer exemplified by,
It is described in detail with reference to specific implementation processes of the Fig. 5 to step S121：
Shown in reference picture 5, the flow for the rich and influential family that identification any channel according to an embodiment of the invention is transformed, bag
Include：
Judge the number of users that the channel is transformed, be transformed in this embodiment using registered user as the channel
User, if registered user's quantity is less than 1000 people, perform step S502；If registered user is more than or equal to 1000 people,
Perform step S501.It should be noted that concrete numerical value is merely illustrative herein, why registered user's quantity is sentenced
Disconnected, the channel output for being primarily due to registered user's negligible amounts is relatively low, it is necessary to which the channel of itself and high production is made a distinction into place
Reason.
Step S501, for registered user's quantity be more than or equal to 1000 people channel, that is, convert number of users be more than or
Equal to the channel of 1000 people, judge whether to have produced rich and influential family, if so, then performing step S503；Otherwise, step S502 is performed.
Step S502, for registered user's quantity be less than 1000 people channel, although and registered user's quantity be more than or
The channel of rich and influential family is not produced equal to 1000 people but, is converted the overall rich and influential family's conversion ratio of each channel as the rich and influential family of the channel
Rate.It is alternatively possible to using the average of rich and influential family's conversion ratio of each channel as rich and influential family's conversion ratio of each channel entirety.
Step S503, it is more than or equal to 1000 people for registered user's quantity and has produced the channel of rich and influential family, calculating should
Rich and influential family's conversion ratio of channel.
Step S504, according to rich and influential family's conversion ratio of determination, it is determined that the cut-off issuable big amount of the current time channel
Q.It should be noted that Q is the value predicted according to rich and influential family's conversion ratio of determination.
Step S505, judges whether the cut-off current time channel generates rich and influential family, if so, then performing step S507；It is no
Then, step S506 is performed.
Step S506, if the cut-off current time channel does not produce rich and influential family, using the Q of prediction as the rich and influential family people recognized
Number.Rich and influential family of the rich and influential family now recognized all to predict.
Step S507, if the cut-off current time channel generates rich and influential family, judge whether produced big amount Q' >=Q,
If so, then perform step S508；Otherwise, step S509 is performed.
Step S508, if caused big amount Q' >=Q, using Q' as the big amount recognized.Now recognize
The all real rich anies influential family of rich and influential family.
Step S509, if caused big amount Q'＜ Q, using Q'+ (Q-Q') as the big amount recognized.Now know
Some in the rich and influential family being clipped to is real rich and influential family, and another part is the rich and influential family of prediction.
Step S510, the rich and influential family's list for determining to be finally identified to based on step S506, step S508 or step S509.
How when a large number of users not yet proceeds by payment or only a small amount of payment rich and influential family is just identified, be that channel ROI is pre-
The key of survey, the technical scheme of the above embodiment of the present invention can quickly and easily recognize rich and influential family, and then be favorably improved canal
The efficiency of road ROI predictions.
Also comprise the following steps with continued reference to the process for shown in Fig. 2, predicting each rate of return on investment for launching channel：
Step S122, payment data and described each other use launched channel and be transformed based on the targeted customer
The payment data at family, the rate of return on investment of the targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of the other users are predicted respectively；
Step S123, according to it is described it is each launch the rate of return on investment of targeted customer that channel is transformed and it is described other
The rate of return on investment of user, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel.It is alternatively possible to each dispensing channel is turned
The rate of return on investment of targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of other users changed carry out cumulative summation, to obtain each dispensing
The rate of return on investment of channel.
In embodiments of the present invention, a kind of step S122 and step S123 example implementations are specifically such as Fig. 6
It is shown, still comprise the following steps in figure 6 using rich and influential family as being illustrated exemplified by targeted customer：
Step S601, obtain rich and influential family's list.
Step S602, obtain rich and influential family's user charges data.
Step S603, the ROI of each rich and influential family of linear regression prediction is carried out to each rich and influential family.It is i.e. pre- according to linear regression algorithm
Survey the rate of return on investment of each rich and influential family.
Step S604, obtain the payment data of non-rich and influential family user.
Step S605, linear regression prediction ROI is integrally carried out to non-rich and influential family.
Step S606, the ROI predicted is superimposed and summed, obtains the ROI of each channel.
Step S607, when after elapse of a predetermined time, return to step S601 is predicted again.I.e. in the embodiment of the present invention
ROI prediction schemes can predict at regular intervals once, such as daily all reacquire the rich and influential family's list recognized, Ran Houchong
It is new to carry out ROI predictions.
In the above-described embodiments, because the payment amount of rich and influential family (i.e. targeted customer) is higher, therefore can predict respectively
The rate of return on investment of each rich and influential family, and for non-rich and influential family (i.e. other users), then it can be regarded as an entirety, prediction is all
The overall rate of return on investment of non-rich and influential family, and then the precision of the rate of return on investment predicted can be improved.In embodiments of the invention
In, reference picture 7 show the ROI curves for the non-rich and influential family that each channel arrived in the program prediction by above-described embodiment in certain day, can
See, the ROI curves of the non-rich and influential family that technical scheme according to embodiments of the present invention predicts (transverse axis be date, longitudinal axis ROI) are complete
Beautiful meets logarithm growth.Reference picture 8 show the rich and influential family that each channel was arrived at certain day by the program prediction of above-described embodiment
ROI curves, it is seen then that the rich and influential family that technical scheme according to embodiments of the present invention predicts ROI curves (transverse axis is the date, indulge
Axle is ROI) also perfectly meet logarithm growth.
For step S14, can be according to the section residing for the rate of return on investment of each dispensing channel, to assess each dispensing
The dispensing effect of channel.
Specifically, in an embodiment of the present invention, for example ROI of each channel at 60 days is predicted, then can basis
Corresponding relation shown in table 2 assesses the dispensing effect of each dispensing channel.
Table 2
In addition, in embodiments of the present invention, it can lead to after the rate of return on investment of each dispensing channel is predicted
The mode of chart is crossed to be shown, and then extension worker can be easy to more intuitively to view the investment of each dispensing channel and returned
Report rate.
In one embodiment of the invention, shown in reference picture 9, by the form of chart by the true of channel A and channel B
Rich and influential family (i.e. targeted customer), real non-rich and influential family's (i.e. other users), the non-rich and influential family of the rich and influential family predicted and prediction is at same
Shown on figure, and then it is possible to notify that extension worker is tracked in time, channel effect is monitored, so as to it is determined that channel effect
When poor, it is adjusted in time.
The history for the user that the technical scheme of the above embodiment of the present invention can be transformed by each dispensing channel is paid
Take data to predict the dispensing effect of each dispensing channel, during practical application, by being carried out to historical date data
Return to survey and estimate accuracy to verify, it may be determined that it is predicted using user in the payment data of certain first three day of channel, 80%
Channel forecast result is compared with real situation, and error is in rational scope.It can be seen that the technical scheme of the embodiment of the present invention
The dispensing effect of the channel can be substantially determined if the initial stage of dispensing (such as first three day), it is not necessary to wait longer event, section
The testing cost of channel effect is saved.
Exemplary media
After the method for exemplary embodiment of the invention is described, next, to exemplary embodiment of the invention
Medium illustrate.
In some possible embodiments, various aspects of the invention are also implemented as a kind of medium, store thereon
There is program code, be used to realize that this specification is above-mentioned " illustrative methods " when computing device of the described program code by equipment
The step in the appraisal procedure according to the dispensing channel of the various illustrative embodiments of the present invention described in part.
Specifically, it is used to realize following steps during the computing device described program code of the equipment：Obtain each throwing
Put the history payment data for the user that channel is transformed；According to the history payment data, each dispensing channel is predicted
Rate of return on investment；Based on each rate of return on investment for launching channel, each dispensing effect for launching channel is assessed.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：According to the history payment data, payment amount is more than in identification each user for launching channel and being transformed
The targeted customer of predetermined value；Payment data and described each other use launched channel and be transformed based on the targeted customer
The payment data at family, the rate of return on investment of the targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of the other users are predicted respectively；According to
Each rate of return on investment of targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of the other users launched channel and be transformed, prediction
Each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：For any dispensing channel, any dispensing channel according to the history payment data predicts cut-off current time
The payment amount that may be transformed is more than the first kind user of the predetermined value；Obtain any dispensing described in cut-off current time
The actual payment amount being transformed of channel is more than the second class user of the predetermined value；According to the first kind user and described
Second class user, identification any targeted customer for launching channel and being transformed.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：According to the history payment data, targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel is determined；According to described
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel, any dispensing channel described in prediction cut-off current time may be transformed
The first kind user.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：Judge whether the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed is more than or equal to predetermined quantity, and judge
Whether there is the targeted customer in any user for launching channel and being transformed；It is transformed in any dispensing channel
Number of users when being more than or equal to the predetermined quantity and the wherein existing targeted customer, according to any dispensing canal
The number of users and the quantity of targeted customer therein that road is transformed, calculate targeted customer corresponding to any dispensing channel
Conversion ratio.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：When the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed is less than the predetermined quantity, or in any throwing
Put the number of users that channel is transformed and be more than or equal to the predetermined quantity and during without the targeted customer, according to
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to each dispensing channel determines targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：Calculate each average for launching targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to channel；Using the average as described any
Launch targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：If the number of the second class user is more than or equal to the number of the first kind user, second class is used
Family is identified as any targeted customer for launching channel and being transformed；If the number of the second class user is less than described
The number of first kind user, then it is institute by the user of the specified quantity in the first kind user and the second class user's identification
The targeted customer that any dispensing channel is transformed is stated, wherein, the specified quantity is the number of the first kind user
And the difference of the number of the second class user.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：Rate of return on investment based on the payment data of the targeted customer, the respectively each targeted customer of prediction.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：Based on the payment data of the other users, the overall rate of return on investment of all other users of prediction.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：Throwing to each rate of return on investment and the other users for launching the targeted customer that channel is transformed
Money return rate carries out cumulative summation, to obtain each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：Predict that the investment of the rate of return on investment and the other users of the targeted customer is returned respectively according to linear regression algorithm
Report rate.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is used to realize such as during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Lower step：Each history payment data for launching the user that channel is transformed is obtained according to the predetermined cycle, with timing
Each rate of return on investment for launching channel of renewal prediction.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is additionally operable to realize during the computing device described program code of the equipment
Following steps：The each rate of return on investment for launching channel predicted is shown by way of chart.
It should be noted that：Above-mentioned medium can be readable signal medium or readable storage medium storing program for executing.Readable storage medium
Matter can be for example but not limited to：Electricity, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, system, device or the device of infrared ray or semiconductor, or arbitrarily
Combination above.The more specifically example (non exhaustive list) of readable storage medium storing program for executing includes：With one or more wires
Electrical connection, portable disc, hard disk, random access memory (RAM), read-only storage (ROM), erasable type may be programmed read-only storage
Device (EPROM or flash memory), optical fiber, portable compact disc read only memory (CD-ROM), light storage device, magnetic memory device or
The above-mentioned any appropriate combination of person.
Readable signal medium can be included in a base band or as a part of data-signal propagated of carrier wave, wherein carrying
Readable program code.The data-signal of this propagation can take various forms, and include but is not limited to：Electromagnetic signal, light letter
Number or above-mentioned any appropriate combination.Readable signal medium can also be any computer-readable recording medium beyond readable storage medium storing program for executing,
The computer-readable recording medium can send, propagate and either transmit for being used by instruction execution system, device or device or being tied with it
Close the program used.
The program code included on computer-readable recording medium can be transmitted with any appropriate medium, be included but is not limited to：Wirelessly, have
Line, optical cable, RF etc., or above-mentioned any appropriate combination.
Can being combined to write the program operated for performing the present invention with one or more programming languages
Code, described program design language include object oriented program language-Java, C++ etc., include routine
Procedural programming language-such as " C " language or similar programming language.Program code can be fully in user
Performed on computing device, part performs or remotely counted completely on a remote computing on the user computing device for part
Calculate and performed on equipment or server.In the situation of remote computing device is related to, remote computing device can pass through any kind
Network --- including LAN (LAN) or wide area network (WAN)-be connected to user calculating equipment, or, it may be connected to it is outer
Portion's computing device (such as passing through Internet connection using ISP).
Exemplary means
After the medium of exemplary embodiment of the invention is described, next, exemplary to the present invention with reference to figure 10
The apparatus for evaluating of the dispensing channel of embodiment illustrates.
Figure 10 diagrammatically illustrates the block diagram of the apparatus for evaluating of dispensing channel according to an embodiment of the invention.
Shown in reference picture 10, the apparatus for evaluating 100 according to an embodiment of the invention for launching channel, including：Acquiring unit
110th, processing unit 120 and assessment unit 130.
Specifically, acquiring unit 110 is used for the history payment data for obtaining the user that each dispensing channel is transformed；Place
Unit 120 is managed to be used for according to the history payment data, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel；Assessment unit
130 are used to, based on each rate of return on investment for launching channel, assess each dispensing effect for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, included based on aforementioned schemes, the processing unit 120：Recognition unit
1201, for according to the history payment data, identifying that payment amount is big in each user for launching channel and being transformed
In the targeted customer of predetermined value；First predicting unit 1202, for the payment data based on the targeted customer and described each
Launch the payment data of other users that channel is transformed, predict respectively the targeted customer rate of return on investment and it is described its
The rate of return on investment of his user；Second predicting unit 1203, for according to each target use launched channel and be transformed
The rate of return on investment of the rate of return on investment at family and the other users, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the recognition unit 1201：For any
Channel is launched, any pair launched channel and may be transformed according to the history payment data predicts cut-off current time
Take the first kind user that the amount of money is more than the predetermined value；Obtain and any described in cut-off current time launch that channel is actual is transformed
Payment amount be more than the predetermined value the second class user；According to the first kind user and the second class user, identification
Any targeted customer for launching channel and being transformed.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the recognition unit 1201：According to described
History payment data, determine targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel；According to any dispensing channel pair
The targeted customer's conversion ratio answered, any first kind use launched channel and may be transformed described in prediction cut-off current time
Family.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the recognition unit 1201：Described in judgement
It is any to launch whether the number of users that channel is transformed is more than or equal to predetermined quantity, and judge any dispensing channel
Whether the targeted customer is had in the user being transformed；It is described it is any launch the number of users that is transformed of channel be more than or
When having equal to the predetermined quantity and wherein the targeted customer, according to any user for launching channel and being transformed
Quantity and the quantity of targeted customer therein, calculate targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the recognition unit 1201：At described
When the number of users that one dispensing channel is transformed is less than the predetermined quantity, or be transformed in any dispensing channel
Number of users is more than or equal to the predetermined quantity and during without the targeted customer, according to each dispensing channel
Corresponding targeted customer's conversion ratio determines targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the recognition unit 1201：Described in calculating
The average of targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to each dispensing channel；Using the average as mesh corresponding to any dispensing channel
Mark user's conversion ratio.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the recognition unit 1201：If described
The number of two class users is more than or equal to the number of the first kind user, then is described any by the second class user's identification
Launch the targeted customer that channel is transformed；If the number of the second class user is less than of the first kind user
Number, then be any dispensing channel by the user of the specified quantity in the first kind user and the second class user's identification
The targeted customer being transformed, wherein, the specified quantity is used for the number of the first kind user with second class
The difference of the number at family.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, first predicting unit 1202：It is based on
The payment data of the targeted customer, the rate of return on investment of each targeted customer is predicted respectively.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, first predicting unit 1202：It is based on
The payment data of the other users, the overall rate of return on investment of all other users of prediction.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, second predicting unit 1203：To institute
The each rate of return on investment of the targeted customer that is transformed of dispensing channel and the rate of return on investment of the other users is stated to enter
The cumulative summation of row, to obtain each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, first predicting unit 1203：According to
Linear regression algorithm predicts the rate of return on investment of the targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of the other users respectively.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, it is configured to based on aforementioned schemes, the acquiring unit 110：According to predetermined
Cycle obtain each history payment data of user launched channel and be transformed so that processing unit timing is more
The each rate of return on investment for launching channel newly predicted.
In certain embodiments of the present invention, also included based on aforementioned schemes, described device 100：Display unit
140, for showing each rate of return on investment for launching channel predicted by way of chart.
Exemplary computer device
After method, medium and the device of exemplary embodiment of the invention is described, next, introducing according to this hair
The computing device of bright another exemplary embodiment.
Person of ordinary skill in the field it is understood that various aspects of the invention can be implemented as system, method or
Program product.Therefore, various aspects of the invention can be implemented as following form, i.e.,：It is complete hardware embodiment, complete
The embodiment combined in terms of full Software Implementation (including firmware, microcode etc.), or hardware and software, can unite here
Referred to as " circuit ", " module " or " system ".
In some possible embodiments, at least one can be comprised at least according to the computing device of embodiment of the present invention
Individual processor and at least one memory.Wherein, the memory storage has program code, when described program code is by institute
When stating computing device so that described in above-mentioned " illustrative methods " part of computing device this specification according to this hair
Step in the appraisal procedure of the dispensing channel of bright various illustrative embodiments.For example, the processor can be performed such as Fig. 1
Shown in step S10, obtain each history payment data of user launched channel and be transformed；Step S12, according to described
History payment data, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel；Step S14, based on each dispensing channel
Rate of return on investment, assess each dispensing effect for launching channel.And for example, the processor can also be performed such as Fig. 2, Fig. 4
The step of to shown in Fig. 6.
It should be noted that although some units or son list for the apparatus for evaluating for launching channel are referred in above-detailed
Member, but what this division was merely exemplary, it is not enforceable.In fact, according to the embodiment of the present invention, above
Two or more modules of description or the feature and function of unit can embody in a module or unit.Conversely, above
One module of description or the feature and function of unit can be further divided into being embodied by multiple modules or unit.
In addition, although the operation of the inventive method is described with particular order in the accompanying drawings, still, this do not require that or
Hint must perform these operations according to the particular order, or the operation having to carry out shown in whole could realize it is desired
As a result.Additionally or alternatively, it is convenient to omit some steps, multiple steps are merged into a step and performed, and/or by one
Step is decomposed into execution of multiple steps.
Although describe spirit and principles of the present invention by reference to some embodiments, it should be appreciated that, this
Invention is not limited to invented embodiment, and the division to each side does not mean that the feature in these aspects can not yet
Combination is to be benefited, and this division is merely to the convenience of statement.It is contemplated that cover appended claims spirit and
In the range of included various modifications and equivalent arrangements.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of appraisal procedure for launching channel, including：
Obtain the history payment data for the user that each dispensing channel is transformed；
According to the history payment data, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel；
Based on each rate of return on investment for launching channel, each dispensing effect for launching channel is assessed.
2. according to the method for claim 1, wherein, according to the history payment data, predict each dispensing channel
Rate of return on investment, including：
According to the history payment data, payment amount is more than predetermined in identification each user for launching channel and being transformed
The targeted customer of value；
Payment data and each payment data for launching the other users that channel is transformed based on the targeted customer,
The rate of return on investment of the targeted customer and the rate of return on investment of the other users are predicted respectively；
Returned according to the investment of each rate of return on investment and the other users for launching the targeted customer that channel is transformed
Report rate, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel.
3. according to the method for claim 2, wherein, according to the history payment data, identify each dispensing channel
Payment amount is more than the targeted customer of predetermined value in the user being transformed, including：
For any dispensing channel, any dispensing channel may according to the history payment data predicts cut-off current time
The payment amount being transformed is more than the first kind user of the predetermined value；
Obtain described in cut-off current time it is any launch the channel actual payment amount being transformed and be more than the predetermined value the
Two class users；
According to the first kind user and the second class user, identification any target launched channel and be transformed
User.
4. according to the method for claim 3, wherein, appoint according to the history payment data predicts cut-off current time
The payment amount that one dispensing channel may be transformed is more than the first kind user of the predetermined value, including：
According to the history payment data, targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel is determined；
According to targeted customer's conversion ratio, any dispensing channel described in prediction cut-off current time corresponding to any dispensing channel
The first kind user that may be transformed.
5. according to the method for claim 4, wherein, according to the history payment data, determine any dispensing channel
Corresponding targeted customer's conversion ratio, including：
Judge whether the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed is more than or equal to predetermined quantity, and described in judgement
Whether there is the targeted customer in any user for launching channel and being transformed；
It is more than or equal to the predetermined quantity in the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed and wherein has described
During targeted customer, the number of users and the quantity of targeted customer therein that are transformed according to any dispensing channel, calculate
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
6. according to the method for claim 5, wherein, according to the history payment data, determine any dispensing channel
Corresponding targeted customer's conversion ratio, in addition to：
When the number of users that any dispensing channel is transformed is less than the predetermined quantity, or in any dispensing canal
The number of users that road is transformed is more than or equal to the predetermined quantity and during without the targeted customer, according to described
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to each dispensing channel determines targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
7. the method according to claim 11, wherein, it is true according to targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to each dispensing channel
Targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to fixed any dispensing channel, including：
Calculate each average for launching targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to channel；
Using the average as targeted customer's conversion ratio corresponding to any dispensing channel.
8. a kind of medium, is stored thereon with program, realized when the program is executed by processor such as any one of claim 1 to 7
Described method.
9. a kind of apparatus for evaluating for launching channel, including：
Acquiring unit, the history payment data for the user being transformed for obtaining each dispensing channel；
Processing unit, for according to the history payment data, prediction each rate of return on investment for launching channel；
Assessment unit, for based on each rate of return on investment for launching channel, assessing each dispensing for launching channel
Effect.
10. a kind of computing device, including：Processor and memory, the memory storage have executable instruction, the processor
Executable instruction for calling the memory storage performs the method as any one of claim 1 to 7.
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