CN107845022B - Electric power market aid decision-making system - Google Patents
Electric power market aid decision-making system Download PDFInfo
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- CN107845022B CN107845022B CN201711066260.9A CN201711066260A CN107845022B CN 107845022 B CN107845022 B CN 107845022B CN 201711066260 A CN201711066260 A CN 201711066260A CN 107845022 B CN107845022 B CN 107845022B
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S50/00—Market activities related to the operation of systems integrating technologies related to power network operation or related to communication or information technologies
- Y04S50/10—Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid
Abstract
The invention provides an electric power market aid decision system, comprising: the system comprises a basic information acquisition module, a market prediction analysis module, a transaction simulation deduction module, a quotation strategy evaluation module, a profit-loss balance analysis module and a transaction reply analysis module. Has the advantages that: the electric power market assistant decision system provided by the invention becomes a set of independent and comprehensive closed-loop transaction assistant decision system by collecting and analyzing the relevant basic information of the electric power market, market prediction, transaction simulation deduction, quotation strategy evaluation, profit and loss balance analysis, transaction reply and other functional modules, and provides an efficient, rapid, comprehensive and systematic analysis system for market main bodies such as power selling companies, large users, power generation enterprises and the like in electric power market transaction, helps the market main bodies to efficiently and rapidly participate in market transaction, and improves market transaction efficiency.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power market transaction, and particularly relates to an electric power market auxiliary decision-making system.
Background
At present, the electric power trading market in China is in a rapid development stage, along with the continuous expansion of the trading scale of the electric power market, the continuous perfection of trading rules, the increasing of trading complexity and the gradual enhancement of competition among market main bodies are intensified day by day, and how to assist the market main bodies participating in electric power trading to rapidly make reasonable quotation strategies and improve the market trading efficiency has important significance. In the prior art, no effective solution exists.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides an electric power market aid decision-making system which can effectively solve the problems.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
the invention provides an electric power market aid decision system, comprising:
the basic information acquisition module is used for acquiring basic information and trade information of the electric power market;
the market prediction analysis module is used for analyzing various market factors influencing future transactions according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module, and predicting to obtain the price of the power coal and the average bargain price;
the transaction simulation deduction module is used for simulating a matching process of a transaction center according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module and the power coal price and the average bargain price predicted by the market prediction analysis module to obtain a deduction bargain price;
the transaction simulation deduction module is specifically used for: the power coal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module is used as a reference to obtain an initial power coal price value; obtaining an initial trading deal price to be analyzed according to the initial value of the price of the power coal and the average deal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module; then, setting a simulation trading rule; obtaining market participant information including power consumer information and power generation enterprise information according to the basic information acquisition module; reading a preset quotation strategy database, and determining the quotation strategy of each market participant; determining declaration price of the power generation enterprise and declaration price of the power consumer according to the quotation strategy and the initial transaction bargaining price; determining the declared electric quantity of the power generation enterprise and the declared electric quantity of the power consumer; matching the trading process of the market participants according to the simulated trading rules, simulating the quotation of the market participants, performing simulated trading, and finally obtaining quotation schemes of the market participants under different assumed conditions; and screening according to the related technical indexes of the own quotation scheme, wherein the technical indexes comprise: reporting the ranking, the transaction rate, the transaction ranking and the strategy interval to finally obtain the simulated transaction price;
the quotation strategy evaluation module is used for carrying out risk evaluation on the simulated transaction bargaining price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module according to historical bargaining data and evaluating a risk interval where the simulated transaction bargaining price is located;
the quotation strategy evaluation module is specifically configured to: dividing a quotation interval into a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval according to the quotation strategy risk preference; analyzing the historical trading bargaining price of the historical trading result, dividing a steady price section, a conservative price section and an aggressive price section in the past trading based on a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval, and predicting the steady price interval, the aggressive price interval and the conservative price interval of the next trading result according to the predicted value of a moving average line or a time sequence method; then, judging a price interval to which the deduction success price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module belongs, wherein the price interval comprises a steady price interval, an aggressive price interval or a conservative price interval; if the price belongs to the steady price interval, the aggressive price interval or the conservative price interval, the deduction price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module is acceptable; if the price is lower than the lower limit of the conservative price interval or higher than the upper limit of the aggressive price interval, adjusting the quotation scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction, and iteratively operating the transaction simulation deduction module and the quotation strategy evaluation module to finally obtain an acceptable deduction transaction price;
the profit-loss balance analysis module is used for carrying out profit-loss balance analysis on the derived deal price after the successful evaluation of the quotation strategy evaluation module to obtain a profit-loss spatial value; judging whether the profit space value is larger than a preset value or not, if so, indicating that the deduction bargain price meets the requirement; if the price is not larger than the preset price, adjusting the price offering scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction again, and iteratively operating the transaction simulation deduction module, the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module until a deduction transaction price meeting the requirements of the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module is obtained;
the trading reply analysis module is used for evaluating and analyzing a trading result after the trading result is issued, checking the accuracy of the derived transaction price meeting the requirements of the quotation strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module, and representing that the auxiliary decision operation process is successful if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is less than a set threshold value; and if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is larger than a set threshold value, further comprehensively analyzing the market prediction analysis module, the transaction simulation derivation module and the quotation strategy evaluation module, determining a link causing prediction errors, and correcting and adjusting the link causing the prediction errors.
Preferably, the electric power market basic information comprises market trading plan information, market participant information, historical trend of power coal price and medium and long term electric power and electric quantity balance information; the electric power market transaction information comprises transaction data under different varieties, types and periods in the electric power market.
Preferably, the quotation interval is divided into a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval according to the quotation strategy risk preference, and specifically comprises the following steps: and dividing the quotation interval in a mode of percentage or price difference of the bargaining price.
Preferably, the profit-loss balance analysis module is specifically configured to:
(1) establishing a coordinate system, wherein the vertical axis represents money amount, and the horizontal axis represents electricity consumption; in the coordinate system, calculating to obtain the slope of the profit curve according to the deduction bargain; determining the transaction electric quantity according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining a profit curve according to the transaction electric quantity, namely: the profit curve consists of two parts, wherein the former part is an oblique line, the benefit is gradually increased along with the increase of the power consumption, and the benefit is maximized when the power consumption reaches the transaction power; the second part is a horizontal line, which indicates that the benefit is not increased any more after the transaction electric quantity is exceeded;
(2) determining a maximum negative examination value, an examination lower limit and an examination upper limit according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining an examination amount broken line; the examination amount broken line consists of three parts, the examination amount is gradually reduced along with the increase of the electricity consumption when the examination amount broken line is lower than the examination lower limit, and the slope of the examination amount broken line is determined according to the examination rule; when the electricity consumption reaches the lower assessment limit, the assessment amount is reduced to 0; when the electricity consumption is between the examination lower limit and the examination upper limit, the examination is not checked, and the examination amount is 0; when the electricity consumption is larger than the assessment upper limit, the assessment amount gradually increases along with the increase of the electricity consumption, and the slope of the assessment amount is determined according to the assessment rule;
(3) the area of a closed area enclosed by the check money broken line and the profit curve is a profit space; the check amount broken line and the profit curve have two intersection points, and the intersection point is a profit balance point.
The electric power market assistant decision system provided by the invention has the following advantages:
the electric power market assistant decision system provided by the invention becomes a set of independent and comprehensive closed-loop transaction assistant decision system by collecting and analyzing the relevant basic information of the electric power market, market prediction, transaction simulation deduction, quotation strategy evaluation, profit and loss balance analysis, transaction reply and other functional modules, and provides an efficient, rapid, comprehensive and systematic analysis system for market main bodies such as power selling companies, large users, power generation enterprises and the like in electric power market transaction, helps the market main bodies to efficiently and rapidly participate in market transaction, and improves market transaction efficiency.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an overall architecture of an electric power market aid decision system provided by the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an overall detailed architecture of an electric power market aid decision system provided by the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of a prediction result display sub-module displaying a prediction result;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of profit-loss analysis performed by the profit-loss balance analysis module.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and advantageous effects solved by the present invention more clearly apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
In the traditional scheme, a method based on microcosmic economics and game theory is mainly used for solving by establishing a mathematical model of a power market, and various factors influencing the market are researched and analyzed by adopting a relevant theory. Although some problems can be solved, for example, in the research market, a strategy set can be obtained by adopting a game theory method, and the optimal strategy is obtained by calculating the respective cost, income and the like of the power generation company. However, these methods generally do not relate to the display of the basic information of the power market, and the quotation strategy lacks the functions of transaction reply analysis and the like, and cannot provide a set of practical auxiliary decision-making method for the market subject in a multidimensional and complete manner. In addition, due to the particularity and complexity of the real-time power market, the method based on the micro-economics and the game theory is mainly used for researching the theoretical condition of the power market or historical accident analysis, and has some limitations on the real-time power market analysis. The construction design of the power market is adapted to the characteristics of the power market, and the modeling is difficult to realize by an empirical analysis method and a conventional method of micro-economics and game theory.
The invention provides a reasonable electric power market auxiliary decision-making system, which summarizes the past decision-making profit and disadvantage, analyzes the profit and deficiency balance and predicts the next transaction result from market information statistical analysis, trade duplication, market prediction, profit and deficiency balance analysis, trade simulation deduction, quotation strategy evaluation and other aspects of analysis market information. The invention relates to a modeling method in micro-economics and game theory, and simultaneously uses an agent-based simulation method, an agent power generation company is acted by an intelligent algorithm to select a bidding strategy, and various problems of a power market are researched according to the result of each clearing. Meanwhile, through multidimensional statistical analysis of market basic information, the market main body summarizes functions of note analysis management and the like to enrich the assistant decision system, so that the assistant decision system becomes a set of independent and comprehensive transaction assistant decision system, an efficient, rapid, comprehensive and systematic analysis system is provided for market main bodies of electricity selling companies, large users, power generation enterprises and the like in electric power market transaction, and the market main bodies are helped to efficiently and rapidly participate in market transaction.
Referring to fig. 1, the electric power market assistant decision system mainly includes a basic information acquisition module, a market prediction analysis module, a trading simulation deduction module, a quotation strategy evaluation module, a profit-loss balance analysis module, and a trading copy analysis module. The market basic information acquisition module can enable a market main body to comprehensively know market and transaction conditions from a multi-dimensional visual angle, and provides a window and a hand grip for the market main body to quickly master the market conditions; data support is provided for functional modules such as market prediction analysis and the like; the market prediction analysis module can predict the data of the next period through the historical data of the electric quantity, the electricity price and relevant influence factors; the transaction simulation deduction module simulates the quotation and matching process in bidding transaction and provides support for the user to preliminarily make a transaction strategy; and the quotation strategy evaluation module evaluates and screens the preliminarily formulated trading strategy through historical data, and finally determines a quotation strategy interval under a certain risk probability. The profit-loss balance analysis module can provide profit-loss boundary values of the electric quantity and the electric price for the market main body through calculating parameters such as cost-keeping electric price and deviation checking boundary, and accordingly determines profit space; the transaction reply analysis module can simulate the deduction result of the deduction module for the transaction, namely: and the predicted trading strategy is verified, and if the predicted trading strategy does not pass the verification, the market prediction analysis module, the trading simulation deduction module and the quotation strategy evaluation module are modified, so that a closed-loop analysis system is formed. In conclusion, the electric power market assistant decision system is a complete and coherent market assistant decision system, and provides comprehensive decision support for market main bodies.
The following describes each functional module in detail:
basic information acquisition module
The basic information acquisition module is used for acquiring basic information and trade information of the electric power market; the electric power market basic information comprises market trading plan information, market participant information, historical trend of power coal price and medium and long term electric power and electric quantity balance information; the electric power market transaction information comprises transaction data under different varieties, types and periods in the electric power market. In the transaction aid decision-making system, the information acquired by the basic information acquisition module helps a user to quickly and comprehensively master the basic situation and the transaction situation of the power market, and provides data support for prediction analysis in the subsequent links of the aid decision-making system.
In the concrete implementation, the basic information acquisition module captures the relevant information of the electric power market through a network crawler, a data interface and the like. The contained information is: information such as transaction bulletin and registration notice of the transaction center, information such as a transaction plan, main body access and policy document of credit committee and diversion committee, information such as transaction rules of the energy bureau, information related to various electric power transactions of the information website and the like. The collected trading information includes the information of the long-term trade and the monthly trade of each province, the quotation information of the market main body, the settlement information of the market trade and the like.
(II) market prediction analysis module
And the market prediction analysis module is used for analyzing various market factors influencing future transactions according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module and predicting to obtain the price of the power coal and the average bargain price.
Specifically, the market forecast is based on information such as market basic information and historical trading, various market factors influencing future trading, such as trends of power coal, large user load/electric quantity, supplier reporting average price, demander reporting average price, bargaining average price and the like are analyzed, and a basis is provided for a trading simulation and quotation decision module.
When the market prediction analysis module carries out market prediction, long, medium and short term prediction can be carried out according to different periods. Different predictions can also be made according to different predicted objects (such as industrial users, business users, etc.). The method comprises the steps of predicting the power consumption/load of a user, market price (supply and demand side price marginal value and mean value), and relevant factors influencing the market price (power coal price, coal price index and the like). In the prediction method, an elastic coefficient method, a unit consumption method, a typical daily method, a time series method (moving average/exponential smoothing/holter smoothing/ARIMA/time function regression, etc.), a multiple regression analysis method, gray model prediction, neural network prediction, wavelet prediction, etc. may be used.
The market forecast analysis module mainly comprises: the device comprises a historical data maintenance submodule, a regression variable setting submodule, a sensitivity analysis submodule, an error and prediction mode setting submodule and a prediction result display submodule. And the historical data maintenance submodule is used for acquiring historical information of some factors related to the transaction price prediction, including the cost of power generation raw materials, supply and demand conditions, policy rules, other factors and the like. And the regression variable setting submodule is used for setting the regression variables and determining the independent variables and the dependent variables. And the sensitivity analysis submodule is used for analyzing the correlation between each independent variable and the dependent variable according to the calculated independent variable and dependent variable correlation coefficient, and eliminating independent variables which are irrelevant or have small correlation so as to optimize an analysis result. And the error and prediction mode setting submodule is used for setting an error metric standard and a prediction technology, wherein the error metric standard comprises a root mean square error, a square absolute error and an average absolute percentage absolute error, and the prediction technology comprises standard prediction, simple advance prediction and weighted advance prediction. After the relevant factors are set, the prediction result display sub-module displays the prediction result, as shown in fig. 3.
(III) transaction simulation deduction module
The transaction simulation deduction module is used for simulating a matching process of a transaction center according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module and the power coal price and the average bargain price predicted by the market prediction analysis module to obtain a deduction bargain price;
the transaction simulation deduction module is specifically used for: the power coal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module is used as a reference to obtain an initial power coal price value; obtaining an initial trading deal price to be analyzed according to the initial value of the price of the power coal and the average deal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module; then, setting a simulation trading rule; obtaining market participant information including power consumer information and power generation enterprise information according to the basic information acquisition module; reading a preset quotation strategy database, and determining the quotation strategy of each market participant; determining declaration price of the power generation enterprise and declaration price of the power consumer according to the quotation strategy and the initial transaction bargaining price; determining the declared electric quantity of the power generation enterprise and the declared electric quantity of the power consumer; matching the trading process of the market participants according to the simulated trading rules, simulating the quotation of the market participants, performing simulated trading, and finally obtaining quotation schemes of the market participants under different assumed conditions; and screening according to the related technical indexes of the own quotation scheme, wherein the technical indexes comprise: reporting the ranking, the transaction rate, the transaction ranking and the strategy interval to finally obtain the simulated transaction price.
Therefore, the transaction simulation deduction is to simulate the matching process of the transaction center through software, and deduct the behavior of the transaction result in advance according to the known information or the predicted information of the market before the transaction starts. The realization process is as follows: acquiring information of a main participant and historical actual transaction information through a basic information module; and the market prediction analysis module acquires various electricity price prediction information (more importantly, predicted quotation intervals) and carries out simulated trading to obtain the quotation schemes of the own parties under different trading behaviors. For the transaction simulation interface, when the user uses the transaction simulation interface, the contents to be selected or filled comprise the affiliated transaction center (transaction rule is determined), the declared electric quantity, the declared electricity price, and the declared electric quantity and electricity price can be selected as the number of declaration sections (slightly different according to different transaction center rules). And after the declaration information is filled, clicking to store the calculation simulation result.
(IV) quotation strategy evaluation module
The quotation strategy evaluation module is used for carrying out risk evaluation on the simulated transaction bargaining price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module according to historical bargaining data and evaluating a risk interval where the simulated transaction bargaining price is located;
the quotation strategy evaluation module is specifically configured to: dividing a quotation interval into a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval according to the quotation strategy risk preference; the specific division method may adopt two modes of percentage or price difference, for example, the market bargain price is a, the region between ± 98% a may be set as a robust policy interval, and the like. Analyzing the historical trading bargain price of the historical trading result, and dividing a steady price section, a conservative price section and an aggressive price section in the past trading based on a conservative quotation section, a steady quotation section and an aggressive quotation section, so as to obtain historical data, support the historical data, and predict the steady price section, the aggressive price section and the conservative price section of the next trading result according to the predicted value of a moving average line or a time sequence method; then, judging a price interval to which the deduction success price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module belongs, wherein the price interval comprises a steady price interval, an aggressive price interval or a conservative price interval; if the price belongs to the steady price interval, the aggressive price interval or the conservative price interval, the deduction price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module is acceptable; if the price is lower than the lower limit of the conservative price interval or higher than the upper limit of the aggressive price interval, adjusting the quotation scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction, and iteratively operating the transaction simulation deduction module and the quotation strategy evaluation module to finally obtain the acceptable deduction bargain.
In practical application, the quotation strategy evaluation module also has a deal probability evaluation function, namely: and carrying out transaction probability evaluation on the formulated quotation strategy according to the data of the historical transaction. The deal probability evaluation refers to evaluating the deal probability of the quotation strategy by a VaR evaluation method; and the strategy risk interval evaluation is to evaluate the strategy risk interval of the quotation strategy according to the historical strategy risk interval distribution, and the selected reference standard can be the strategy risk interval of a certain transaction or the moving average value of strategy risk intervals of multiple transactions.
(V) profit and loss balance analysis module
The profit-loss balance analysis module is used for carrying out profit-loss balance analysis on the derived deal price after the successful evaluation of the quotation strategy evaluation module to obtain a profit-loss spatial value; judging whether the profit space value is larger than a preset value or not, if so, indicating that the deduction bargain price meets the requirement; if the price is not larger than the preset price, the price offering scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction is adjusted again, and the transaction simulation deduction module, the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module are operated in an iterative mode until the deduction transaction price meeting the requirements of the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module is obtained.
Specifically, the profit-loss balance analysis module is used for determining the cost-saving electricity price and the profit-loss balance point under different transaction electric quantities, and further determining the profit space. And the power selling company calculates the profit-loss balance point price in the bidding transaction according to the terms related to the guaranteed price in all the power purchasing and selling contracts, the purchased power amount/price, the planned power purchasing amount and the expected profit. Calculating a deviation assessment range which can be covered by the income of the power selling company by the power selling company and the large user according to the expected transaction price, the planned electricity purchasing quantity and the assessment rule; and the electricity selling company calculates the assessment boundary point of the electricity consumption of the single customer according to the terms related to the guaranteed price, the planned electricity purchasing quantity and the assessment rules in the electricity purchasing and selling contract of the single customer.
The profit-loss balance analysis module also determines the boundaries of the reported electric quantity and the electric price of the electric power transaction through the analysis of the insurance-keeping electric price and the insurance-keeping electric quantity. Wherein, the calculation of the cost-keeping electricity price is to calculate the bottom-keeping electricity price when the residual electricity gap is purchased according to the data of total cost (marketing cost share, purchased electricity quantity to transaction price), total expenditure (total electricity sale quantity, electricity sale price) and the like; and the calculation of the cost-keeping electric quantity is the profit and loss marginal electric quantity considering the transaction income and the deviation checking cost under the condition of deviation checking. The method comprises two profit and loss marginal points of positive deviation and negative deviation.
The profit-loss balance analysis module is specifically used for:
(1) referring to fig. 4, a coordinate system is established, the vertical axis represents money amount, and the horizontal axis represents electricity consumption; in the coordinate system, calculating to obtain the slope of the profit curve according to the deduction bargain; determining the transaction electric quantity according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining a profit curve according to the transaction electric quantity, namely: the profit curve consists of two parts, wherein the former part is an oblique line, the benefit is gradually increased along with the increase of the power consumption, and the benefit is maximized when the power consumption reaches the transaction power; the second part is a horizontal line, which indicates that the benefit is not increased any more after the transaction electric quantity is exceeded;
(2) determining a maximum negative examination value, an examination lower limit and an examination upper limit according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining an examination amount broken line; the examination amount broken line consists of three parts, the examination amount is gradually reduced along with the increase of the electricity consumption when the examination amount broken line is lower than the examination lower limit, and the slope of the examination amount broken line is determined according to the examination rule; when the electricity consumption reaches the lower assessment limit, the assessment amount is reduced to 0; when the electricity consumption is between the examination lower limit and the examination upper limit, the examination is not checked, and the examination amount is 0; when the electricity consumption is larger than the assessment upper limit, the assessment amount gradually increases along with the increase of the electricity consumption, and the slope of the assessment amount is determined according to the assessment rule;
(3) the area of a closed area enclosed by the check money broken line and the profit curve is a profit space; the check amount broken line and the profit curve have two intersection points, and the intersection point is a profit balance point.
(VI) transaction multi-disc analysis module
The trading reply analysis module is used for evaluating and analyzing a trading result after the trading result is issued, checking the accuracy of the derived transaction price meeting the requirements of the quotation strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module, and representing that the auxiliary decision operation process is successful if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is less than a set threshold value; and if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is larger than a set threshold value, further comprehensively analyzing the market prediction analysis module, the transaction simulation derivation module and the quotation strategy evaluation module, determining a link causing prediction errors, and correcting and adjusting the link causing the prediction errors.
In the concrete implementation, the transaction reply analysis module evaluates and analyzes the issued transaction result and verifies the accuracy of the price quoted by the own party, the prediction and the simulation strategy. The content of the transaction copy analysis module for copying comprises the following parts: the method comprises the steps of transaction general trend analysis, transaction profit condition evaluation, transaction electric quantity analysis, transaction electricity price analysis, market prediction verification and simulation strategy verification. The link is not only the multi-disk analysis of the completed electric power market transaction, but also the verification of the market prediction and the transaction simulation deduction effect (the prediction of the transaction before the transaction is analyzed through the completed market transaction and the transaction result), so that closed-loop analysis is formed in the system.
Specifically, the trade duplication analysis module is mainly used for verifying the trade analysis, the trade scheme and the quotation strategy library after the trade result is issued. And calculating a strategy interval, a transaction rate, a transaction price deviation rate and the like of each strategy in the trading scheme and the quotation strategy library according to the trading result and the risk preference, and evaluating the trading profit condition. And carrying out economic evaluation on the published monthly transaction result. And carrying out profit and profit measurement and calculation according to the situations of the own bid amount, the electricity price, the cost and the like, and carrying out profit and profit comparison and measurement and the like on the situations of the own bid amount, the electricity price, the cost and the like. Taking the general trend of the multi-disc transaction as an example, firstly analyzing the multi-disc transaction information of four aspects of the supply party participation transaction trend, the requirer participation transaction trend, the bargain/clear price/supply-demand ratio trend and the bargain and closing price trend, wherein the multi-disc result shows that the number of the supply and demand parties participating in the transaction and bargaining in the transaction is continuously counted for several months recently, if the enthusiasm of the supply party to the conventional monthly transaction is reduced due to the arrival of a heating season in 10 months, the condition reflected on the graph is that the requirer participates in the transaction and has a suddenly reduced number of the supply and demand ratios, an increased transaction price and the like. The general trend of the reply can also determine the influence of other factors of the new policy on the market and the mind of the market subject, for example, after the power consumer catalog electricity price is adjusted, if the graph is not greatly changed, the adjustment of the electricity price of the power consumer can be determined to have small influence on the trading market, otherwise, if the shape of the graph is greatly changed, the market can be determined to be greatly influenced by the policy.
Therefore, the electric power market assistant decision system provided by the invention becomes a set of independent and comprehensive closed-loop trading assistant decision system by collecting and analyzing the functional modules of the relevant basic information of the electric power market, market prediction, trading simulation deduction, quotation strategy evaluation, profit and loss balance analysis, trading reply and the like, and provides an efficient, rapid, comprehensive and systematic analysis system for market main bodies such as power selling companies, large users, power generation enterprises and the like in electric power market trading, helps the market main bodies to efficiently and rapidly participate in market trading, and improves the market trading efficiency.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and such modifications and improvements should also be considered within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. An electric power market aid decision system, comprising:
the basic information acquisition module is used for acquiring basic information and trade information of the electric power market; the electric power market basic information comprises market trading plan information, market participant information, historical trend of power coal price and medium and long term electric power and electric quantity balance information; the electric power market transaction information comprises transaction data under different varieties, types and periods in the electric power market;
the market prediction analysis module is used for analyzing various market factors influencing future transactions according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module, and predicting to obtain the price of the power coal and the average bargain price;
the transaction simulation deduction module is used for simulating a matching process of a transaction center according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module and the power coal price and the average bargain price predicted by the market prediction analysis module to obtain a deduction bargain price;
the transaction simulation deduction module is specifically used for: the power coal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module is used as a reference to obtain an initial power coal price value; obtaining an initial trading deal price to be analyzed according to the initial value of the price of the power coal and the average deal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module; then, setting a simulation trading rule; obtaining market participant information including power consumer information and power generation enterprise information according to the basic information acquisition module; reading a preset quotation strategy database, and determining the quotation strategy of each market participant; determining declaration price of the power generation enterprise and declaration price of the power consumer according to the quotation strategy and the initial transaction bargaining price; determining the declared electric quantity of the power generation enterprise and the declared electric quantity of the power consumer; matching the trading process of the market participants according to the simulated trading rules, simulating the quotation of the market participants, performing simulated trading, and finally obtaining quotation schemes of the market participants under different assumed conditions; and screening according to the related technical indexes of the own quotation scheme, wherein the technical indexes comprise: reporting the ranking, the transaction rate, the transaction ranking and the strategy interval to finally obtain the simulated transaction price;
the quotation strategy evaluation module is used for carrying out risk evaluation on the simulated transaction bargaining price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module according to historical bargaining data and evaluating a risk interval where the simulated transaction bargaining price is located;
the quotation strategy evaluation module is specifically configured to: dividing a quotation interval into a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval according to the quotation strategy risk preference; the method specifically comprises the following steps: dividing the quotation interval in a rate or price difference mode of the bargaining price;
the quotation strategy evaluation module analyzes the historical trading bargain price of the historical trading result, divides a steady price section, a conservative price section and an aggressive price section in the past trading based on a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval, and predicts the steady price interval, the aggressive price interval and the conservative price interval of the next trading result according to the predicted value of a moving average line or a time sequence method; then, judging a price interval to which the deduction success price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module belongs, wherein the price interval comprises a steady price interval, an aggressive price interval or a conservative price interval; if the price belongs to the steady price interval, the aggressive price interval or the conservative price interval, the deduction price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module is acceptable; if the price is lower than the lower limit of the conservative price interval or higher than the upper limit of the aggressive price interval, adjusting the quotation scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction, and iteratively operating the transaction simulation deduction module and the quotation strategy evaluation module to finally obtain an acceptable deduction transaction price;
the profit-loss balance analysis module is used for carrying out profit-loss balance analysis on the derived deal price after the successful evaluation of the quotation strategy evaluation module to obtain a profit-loss spatial value; the method specifically comprises the following steps: (1) establishing a coordinate system, wherein the vertical axis represents money amount, and the horizontal axis represents electricity consumption; in the coordinate system, calculating to obtain the slope of the profit curve according to the deduction bargain; determining the transaction electric quantity according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining a profit curve according to the transaction electric quantity, namely: the profit curve consists of two parts, wherein the former part is an oblique line, the benefit is gradually increased along with the increase of the power consumption, and the benefit is maximized when the power consumption reaches the transaction power; the second part is a horizontal line, which indicates that the benefit is not increased any more after the transaction electric quantity is exceeded;
(2) determining a maximum negative examination value, an examination lower limit and an examination upper limit according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining an examination amount broken line; the examination amount broken line consists of three parts, the examination amount is gradually reduced along with the increase of the electricity consumption when the examination amount broken line is lower than the examination lower limit, and the slope of the examination amount broken line is determined according to the examination rule; when the electricity consumption reaches the lower assessment limit, the assessment amount is reduced to 0; when the electricity consumption is between the examination lower limit and the examination upper limit, the examination is not checked, and the examination amount is 0; when the electricity consumption is larger than the assessment upper limit, the assessment amount gradually increases along with the increase of the electricity consumption, and the slope of the assessment amount is determined according to the assessment rule;
(3) the area of a closed area enclosed by the check money broken line and the profit curve is a profit space; the check amount broken line and the profit curve have two intersection points, and the intersection point is a profit balance point;
then, the profit-loss balance analysis module judges whether the profit space value is larger than a preset value, if so, the deduction bargain price is in accordance with the requirement; if the price is not larger than the preset price, adjusting the price offering scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction again, and iteratively operating the transaction simulation deduction module, the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module until a deduction transaction price meeting the requirements of the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module is obtained;
the trading reply analysis module is used for evaluating and analyzing a trading result after the trading result is issued, checking the accuracy of the derived transaction price meeting the requirements of the quotation strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module, and representing that the auxiliary decision operation process is successful if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is less than a set threshold value; if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is larger than a set threshold value, further comprehensively analyzing a market prediction analysis module, a transaction simulation derivation module and a quotation strategy evaluation module, determining a link causing prediction errors, and correcting and adjusting the link causing the prediction errors;
the electric power market auxiliary decision system comprises a basic information acquisition module, a market prediction analysis module, a transaction simulation deduction module, a quotation strategy evaluation module, a profit and loss balance analysis module and a transaction copy analysis module; the market basic information acquisition module enables a market main body to comprehensively know market and transaction conditions from a multi-dimensional visual angle, and provides a window and a hand grip for the market main body to quickly master the market conditions; data support is provided for the market prediction analysis function module; the market prediction analysis module can predict the data of the next period through the historical data of the electric quantity, the electricity price and relevant influence factors; the transaction simulation deduction module simulates the quotation and matching process in bidding transaction and provides support for the user to preliminarily make a transaction strategy; the quotation strategy evaluation module is used for evaluating and screening the preliminarily formulated trading strategy through historical data and finally determining a quotation strategy interval under a certain risk probability; the profit-loss balance analysis module can provide profit-loss boundary values of the electric quantity and the electric price for the market main body through calculation of the cost-keeping electric price and the deviation checking boundary parameters, so as to determine a profit space; the transaction reply analysis module can simulate the deduction result of the deduction module for the transaction, namely: the predicted trading strategy is verified, and if the predicted trading strategy does not pass the verification, the market prediction analysis module, the trading simulation deduction module and the quotation strategy evaluation module are corrected, so that a closed-loop analysis system is formed; in conclusion, the electric power market assistant decision system is a complete and coherent market assistant decision system, and provides comprehensive decision support for market main bodies;
the electric power market auxiliary decision system analyzes profit-loss balance and predicts the next transaction result from analyzing market information in the aspects of market information statistical analysis, transaction reply, market prediction, profit-loss balance analysis, transaction simulation deduction and quotation strategy evaluation; the modeling method in the micro-economics and game theory is related, an agent-based simulation method is used, an agent power generation company is used for selecting a bidding strategy through an intelligent algorithm, and various problems of the power market are researched according to the result of each clearing; meanwhile, through multidimensional statistical analysis of market basic information, the market main body summarizes the note analysis and management functions to enrich the aid decision system, so that the aid decision system becomes a set of independent and comprehensive transaction aid decision system, an efficient, rapid, comprehensive and systematic analysis system is provided for market main bodies of power selling companies, large users and power generation enterprises in power market transactions, and the market main bodies are helped to efficiently and rapidly participate in the market transactions.
An electric power market aid decision system, comprising:
the basic information acquisition module is used for acquiring basic information and trade information of the electric power market; the electric power market basic information comprises market trading plan information, market participant information, historical trend of power coal price and medium and long term electric power and electric quantity balance information; the electric power market transaction information comprises transaction data under different varieties, types and periods in the electric power market;
the market prediction analysis module is used for analyzing various market factors influencing future transactions according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module, and predicting to obtain the price of the power coal and the average bargain price;
the transaction simulation deduction module is used for simulating a matching process of a transaction center according to the electric power market basic information and the electric power market transaction information acquired by the basic information acquisition module and the power coal price and the average bargain price predicted by the market prediction analysis module to obtain a deduction bargain price;
the transaction simulation deduction module is specifically used for: the power coal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module is used as a reference to obtain an initial power coal price value; obtaining an initial trading deal price to be analyzed according to the initial value of the price of the power coal and the average deal price predicted by the market prediction analysis module; then, setting a simulation trading rule; obtaining market participant information including power consumer information and power generation enterprise information according to the basic information acquisition module; reading a preset quotation strategy database, and determining the quotation strategy of each market participant; determining declaration price of the power generation enterprise and declaration price of the power consumer according to the quotation strategy and the initial transaction bargaining price; determining the declared electric quantity of the power generation enterprise and the declared electric quantity of the power consumer; matching the trading process of the market participants according to the simulated trading rules, simulating the quotation of the market participants, performing simulated trading, and finally obtaining quotation schemes of the market participants under different assumed conditions; and screening according to the related technical indexes of the own quotation scheme, wherein the technical indexes comprise: reporting the ranking, the transaction rate, the transaction ranking and the strategy interval to finally obtain the simulated transaction price;
the quotation strategy evaluation module is used for carrying out risk evaluation on the simulated transaction bargaining price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module according to historical bargaining data and evaluating a risk interval where the simulated transaction bargaining price is located;
the quotation strategy evaluation module is specifically configured to: dividing a quotation interval into a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval according to the quotation strategy risk preference; the method specifically comprises the following steps: dividing the quotation interval in a rate or price difference mode of the bargaining price;
the quotation strategy evaluation module analyzes the historical trading bargain price of the historical trading result, divides a steady price section, a conservative price section and an aggressive price section in the past trading based on a conservative quotation interval, a steady quotation interval and an aggressive quotation interval, and predicts the steady price interval, the aggressive price interval and the conservative price interval of the next trading result according to the predicted value of a moving average line or a time sequence method; then, judging a price interval to which the deduction success price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module belongs, wherein the price interval comprises a steady price interval, an aggressive price interval or a conservative price interval; if the price belongs to the steady price interval, the aggressive price interval or the conservative price interval, the deduction price obtained by the transaction simulation deduction module is acceptable; if the price is lower than the lower limit of the conservative price interval or higher than the upper limit of the aggressive price interval, adjusting the quotation scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction, and iteratively operating the transaction simulation deduction module and the quotation strategy evaluation module to finally obtain an acceptable deduction transaction price;
the profit-loss balance analysis module is used for carrying out profit-loss balance analysis on the derived deal price after the successful evaluation of the quotation strategy evaluation module to obtain a profit-loss spatial value; the method specifically comprises the following steps: (1) establishing a coordinate system, wherein the vertical axis represents money amount, and the horizontal axis represents electricity consumption; in the coordinate system, calculating to obtain the slope of the profit curve according to the deduction bargain; determining the transaction electric quantity according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining a profit curve according to the transaction electric quantity, namely: the profit curve consists of two parts, wherein the former part is an oblique line, the benefit is gradually increased along with the increase of the power consumption, and the benefit is maximized when the power consumption reaches the transaction power; the second part is a horizontal line, which indicates that the benefit is not increased any more after the transaction electric quantity is exceeded;
(2) determining a maximum negative examination value, an examination lower limit and an examination upper limit according to the basic information acquisition module, and determining an examination amount broken line; the examination amount broken line consists of three parts, the examination amount is gradually reduced along with the increase of the electricity consumption when the examination amount broken line is lower than the examination lower limit, and the slope of the examination amount broken line is determined according to the examination rule; when the electricity consumption reaches the lower assessment limit, the assessment amount is reduced to 0; when the electricity consumption is between the examination lower limit and the examination upper limit, the examination is not checked, and the examination amount is 0; when the electricity consumption is larger than the assessment upper limit, the assessment amount gradually increases along with the increase of the electricity consumption, and the slope of the assessment amount is determined according to the assessment rule;
(3) the area of a closed area enclosed by the check money broken line and the profit curve is a profit space; the check amount broken line and the profit curve have two intersection points, and the intersection point is a profit balance point;
then, the profit-loss balance analysis module judges whether the profit space value is larger than a preset value, if so, the deduction bargain price is in accordance with the requirement; if the price is not larger than the preset price, adjusting the price offering scheme of the own party of the transaction simulation deduction module during simulation deduction again, and iteratively operating the transaction simulation deduction module, the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module until a deduction transaction price meeting the requirements of the price offering strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module is obtained;
the trading reply analysis module is used for evaluating and analyzing a trading result after the trading result is issued, checking the accuracy of the derived transaction price meeting the requirements of the quotation strategy evaluation module and the profit-loss balance analysis module, and representing that the auxiliary decision operation process is successful if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is less than a set threshold value; if the deviation between the derived transaction price and the real transaction price is larger than a set threshold value, further comprehensively analyzing a market prediction analysis module, a transaction simulation derivation module and a quotation strategy evaluation module, determining a link causing prediction errors, and correcting and adjusting the link causing the prediction errors;
the electric power market auxiliary decision system comprises a basic information acquisition module, a market prediction analysis module, a transaction simulation deduction module, a quotation strategy evaluation module, a profit and loss balance analysis module and a transaction copy analysis module; the market basic information acquisition module enables a market main body to comprehensively know market and transaction conditions from a multi-dimensional visual angle, and provides a window and a hand grip for the market main body to quickly master the market conditions; data support is provided for the market prediction analysis function module; the market prediction analysis module can predict the data of the next period through the historical data of the electric quantity, the electricity price and relevant influence factors; the transaction simulation deduction module simulates the quotation and matching process in bidding transaction and provides support for the user to preliminarily make a transaction strategy; the quotation strategy evaluation module is used for evaluating and screening the preliminarily formulated trading strategy through historical data and finally determining a quotation strategy interval under a certain risk probability; the profit-loss balance analysis module can provide profit-loss boundary values of the electric quantity and the electric price for the market main body through calculation of the cost-keeping electric price and the deviation checking boundary parameters, so as to determine a profit space; the transaction reply analysis module can simulate the deduction result of the deduction module for the transaction, namely: the predicted trading strategy is verified, and if the predicted trading strategy does not pass the verification, the market prediction analysis module, the trading simulation deduction module and the quotation strategy evaluation module are corrected, so that a closed-loop analysis system is formed; in conclusion, the electric power market assistant decision system is a complete and coherent market assistant decision system, and provides comprehensive decision support for market main bodies;
the electric power market auxiliary decision system analyzes profit-loss balance and predicts the next transaction result from analyzing market information in the aspects of market information statistical analysis, transaction reply, market prediction, profit-loss balance analysis, transaction simulation deduction and quotation strategy evaluation; the modeling method in the micro-economics and game theory is related, an agent-based simulation method is used, an agent power generation company is used for selecting a bidding strategy through an intelligent algorithm, and various problems of the power market are researched according to the result of each clearing; meanwhile, through multidimensional statistical analysis of market basic information, the market main body summarizes the note analysis and management functions to enrich the aid decision system, so that the aid decision system becomes a set of independent and comprehensive transaction aid decision system, an efficient, rapid, comprehensive and systematic analysis system is provided for market main bodies of power selling companies, large users and power generation enterprises in power market transactions, and the market main bodies are helped to efficiently and rapidly participate in the market transactions.
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