CN107730058A - One kind declares Electricity price forecasting solution and device - Google Patents
One kind declares Electricity price forecasting solution and device Download PDFInfo
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- CN107730058A CN107730058A CN201711213753.0A CN201711213753A CN107730058A CN 107730058 A CN107730058 A CN 107730058A CN 201711213753 A CN201711213753 A CN 201711213753A CN 107730058 A CN107730058 A CN 107730058A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
Abstract
The invention discloses one kind to declare Electricity price forecasting solution and device, and this method includes：According to the historical trading data information of each sale of electricity enterprise, being averaged for history each month is calculated and declares electricity price, and by it is described averagely declare electricity price being averaged for month to be analyzed be calculated declare electricity price；Struck a bargain by the history of sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted and declare the data of electricity price, the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted is calculated declares electricity price price differential；According to the month to be analyzed be averaged declare electricity price and the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price price differential, the minimum of enterprise to be predicted is calculated and declares electricity price；The electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month is obtained, the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated；According to the supply and demand ratio ratio in the month to be analyzed, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted is adjusted, electricity price scheme is declared in generation.Realized by the present invention and improve the purpose for declaring Research on electricity price prediction accuracy.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of electric power, and Electricity price forecasting solution and device are declared more particularly to one kind.
Background technology
With the propulsion of power system reform, sale of electricity enterprise, which sets up, would generally face two key issues, i.e., how more preferable
Predict that what kind of the electricity sales amount of our company next month and our company should should be in the declared value of power exchange in ground.Its
In, it is bigger to declare the prediction of the electricity price difficulty for sale of electricity enterprise, because declaring whether electricity price is rationally not only related to sale of electricity
The earning performance of enterprise, set and be related to declaring electricity price and being struck a bargain in power exchange for the sale of electricity enterprise.
In the electricity transaction system of current national each province, occurred a lot of to can not be closed because of declaring electricity price too low
Example, while the sale of electricity enterprise having is too high because of electricity price is declared, and allow sale of electricity enterprises' loss profit even to lose.Looked forward to for sale of electricity
Industry declares next month the prediction of electricity price, and traditional means are to declare electricity by what the subjective judgement of researcher determined next month
Valency, and so do excessively simple and rough and depend on the experience of researcher, sold next month it is difficult to accurately deduce
Electric enterprise needs that submits to declare electricity price, and the profit for so resulting in sale of electricity enterprise is affected.Therefore, how in electricity transaction
The optimal main bugbear declared electricity price, be each sale of electricity enterprise faces is quoted in center.
The content of the invention
Above mentioned problem is directed to, the present invention provides a kind of pricing Forecasting Methodology and device, realizes raising and declare electricity
The purpose of valency forecasting accuracy.
To achieve these goals, according to the first aspect of the invention, there is provided one kind declares Electricity price forecasting solution, and it is special
Sign is that this method includes：
According to the historical trading data information of each sale of electricity enterprise, being averaged for history each month is calculated and declares electricity
Valency, and by it is described averagely declare electricity price being averaged for month to be analyzed be calculated declare electricity price；
Struck a bargain by the history of sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted and declare the data of electricity price, the sale of electricity to be predicted is calculated
Electricity price price differential is declared by enterprise；
According to the month to be analyzed be averaged declare electricity price and the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price price differential,
The minimum of enterprise to be predicted is calculated and declares electricity price；
The electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month is obtained, the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated；
According to the supply and demand ratio ratio in the month to be analyzed, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted is adjusted
Whole, electricity price scheme is declared in generation, wherein, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted declares electricity price, monthly average including minimum
Declare electricity price and historical high declares electricity price.
Preferably, this method also includes：
Data prediction is carried out to historical trading data information, is met the data message of preset rules.
Preferably, the electricity supply and demand ratio for obtaining history each month, the supply and demand ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated
Ratio, including：
Obtain the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month；
The monthly average value of supply and demand ratio is calculated；
According to the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month, the supply and demand ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated by gray model
Value；
Using the monthly average value and the supply and demand ratio in the month to be analyzed of the supply and demand ratio, the moon to be analyzed is calculated
The supply and demand ratio ratio of part.
Preferably, the supply and demand ratio ratio according to the month to be analyzed, electricity price is declared to the enterprise to be predicted
Information is adjusted, and electricity price scheme is declared in generation, including：
The monthly average for calculating the enterprise to be predicted is declared between electricity price and the supply and demand ratio ratio in the month to be analyzed
Ratio, obtain target monthly average and declare electricity price；
Calculate the ratio between the minimum supply and demand ratio ratio for declaring electricity price and the month to be analyzed of the enterprise to be predicted
Value, obtains that target is minimum to declare electricity price；
The historical high for obtaining the enterprise to be predicted declares electricity price, and the moon to be analyzed is obtained by Grey Model
The target highest of part declares electricity price；
Averagely declare that electricity price, target are minimum to declare electricity price and target highest declares electricity price according to the target, generation is declared
Electricity price range intervals, and the electricity price range intervals of declaring are mapped with declaring risk class, obtain declaring electricity price scheme.
Preferably, this method also includes：
According to preset ratio, electricity price is averagely declared to the target and carries out up-regulation processing.
According to the second aspect of the invention, there is provided one kind declares Research on electricity price prediction device, and the device includes：
First computing module, for the historical trading data information according to each sale of electricity enterprise, it is each that history is calculated
Electricity price is declared in being averaged for month, and by it is described averagely declare electricity price being averaged for month to be analyzed be calculated declare electricity price；
Second computing module, the data of electricity price are declared for being struck a bargain by the history of sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted, are calculated
Electricity price price differential is declared to the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted；
3rd computing module, for declaring electricity price and the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted according to being averaged for the month to be analyzed
Industry declares electricity price price differential, and the minimum of enterprise to be predicted is calculated and declares electricity price；
4th computing module, for obtaining the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month, month to be analyzed is calculated
Supply and demand ratio ratio；
Generation module, for the supply and demand ratio ratio according to the month to be analyzed, electricity is declared to the enterprise to be predicted
Valency information is adjusted, and electricity price scheme is declared in generation, wherein, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted includes minimum declare
Electricity price, monthly average declare electricity price and historical high declares electricity price.
Preferably, the device also includes：
Pretreatment module, for carrying out data prediction to historical trading data information, it is met the number of preset rules
It is believed that breath.
Preferably, the 4th computing module includes：
Acquiring unit, for obtaining the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month；
First computing unit, for the monthly average value of supply and demand ratio to be calculated；
Second computing unit, for the electricity supply and demand ratio according to history each month, it is calculated by gray model
The supply and demand ratio in month to be analyzed；
3rd computing unit, for the monthly average value and the supply and demand ratio in the month to be analyzed using the supply and demand ratio
Value, the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated.
Preferably, the generation module includes：
4th computing unit, the monthly average for calculating the enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price and the month to be analyzed
Ratio between supply and demand ratio ratio, obtain target monthly average and declare electricity price；
5th computing unit, for calculating the minimum confession for declaring electricity price and the month to be analyzed of the enterprise to be predicted
It need to obtain that target is minimum to declare electricity price than the ratio between ratio；
6th computing unit, the historical high for obtaining the enterprise to be predicted declares electricity price, pre- by gray model
The target highest for measuring the month to be analyzed declares electricity price；
7th computing unit, for averagely being declared according to the target, electricity price, target are minimum to declare electricity price and target highest
Electricity price is declared, electricity price range intervals are declared in generation, and the electricity price range intervals of declaring are mapped with declaring risk class,
Obtain declaring electricity price scheme.
Preferably, the generation module also includes：
Adjustment unit, for according to preset ratio, averagely declaring electricity price to the target and carrying out up-regulation processing.
Compared to prior art, the present invention is looked forward to by the historical trading data to each sale of electricity enterprise and sale of electricity to be predicted
The history declaration data of industry is analyzed, because all analyses and calculating process are the reductions that are carried out using historical data
The influence of the subjective factor of people, and electricity supply and demand ratio and historical average evidence have been taken into full account, to the sale of electricity enterprise most
Low to declare electricity price, averagely declare electricity price and highest is declared electricity price and adjusted, the result after so adjusting more conforms to electricity price
Risk assessment during declaring, ultimately generate and declared electricity price scheme, disclosure satisfy that the sale of electricity enterprise is accurate to declaring electricity price
Property demand, and then improve the accuracy for declaring electricity price, realizing the sale of electricity enterprise reduces investment risk and increase profit
Target.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
There is the required accompanying drawing used in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only this
The embodiment of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, can also basis
The accompanying drawing of offer obtains other accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of schematic flow sheet for declaring Electricity price forecasting solution that the embodiment of the present invention one provides；
Fig. 2 is a kind of schematic flow sheet for declaring electricity price information method of adjustment that the embodiment of the present invention two provides；
Fig. 3 is a kind of structural representation for declaring Research on electricity price prediction device that the embodiment of the present invention three provides.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation describes, it is clear that described embodiment is only part of the embodiment of the present invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained every other under the premise of creative work is not made
Embodiment, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
Term " first " and " second " in description and claims of this specification and above-mentioned accompanying drawing etc. are to be used for area
Not different objects, rather than for describing specific order.In addition term " comprising " and " having " and their any deformations,
It is intended to cover non-exclusive include.Such as contain the process of series of steps or unit, method, system, product or set
It is standby not to be set in the step of having listed or unit, but the step of may include not list or unit.
Embodiment one
It is that one kind that the embodiment of the present invention one provides declares Electricity price forecasting solution referring to Fig. 1, this method can include following
Step：
S11, the historical trading data information according to each sale of electricity enterprise, being averaged for history each month is calculated and declares
Electricity price, and by it is described averagely declare electricity price being averaged for month to be analyzed be calculated declare electricity price；
Specifically, sale of electricity enterprise herein is a general name, it is to each company or enterprise for carrying out declaring electricity price
Unified address, and the historical trading data for needing to obtain includes the letter for declaring electricity price in each sale of electricity enterprise history each month
The relevant information of electricity price is declared in breath, and overall being averaged, or is the successful electricity price data message etc., i.e. electric power of merchandising
All data messages of trade center record and the related historical data information obtained by other channels.
Because sale of electricity enterprise is not one, and conclusions of the business of each sale of electricity enterprise declare electricity price nor uniformly, so
During electricity transaction in every month, have multiple conclusions of the business declares electricity price.Need that being averaged for each month is first calculated
Electricity price is declared, data basis is provided for follow-up forecast analysis.Calculate month to be analyzed be averaged declare electricity price when, use
Gray model is predicted calculating.
For example, for example obtain each sale of electricity enterprise in history each month declare electricity price after, need to calculate every
Electricity price is declared in being averaged for individual month, the monthly average of sale of electricity enterprise declare electricity price from 4-6 months be respectively 307.835,307.808,
310.108 (being calculated for convenience of reading, unit is omitted).The monthly average that July can be predicted by gray model declares electricity price
For 308.317.
S12, struck a bargain by the history of sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted and declare the data of electricity price, be calculated described to be predicted
Electricity price price differential is declared by sale of electricity enterprise；
Specifically, it is an average value that this, which declares electricity price price differential, because average value can more accurately embody data spy
Point.Such as：It is 300 that the striking a bargain the moon of certain sale of electricity company April, which declares electricity price, and May is 304, and June is 301, then May
Price differential with June is exactly 3.
Assuming that the history price differential in 4-6 months is 4.835,2.698,2.558, average price differential is for the average value of history price differential
For (4.835+2.698+2.558)/3=3.364, now 3.364 be that electricity price price differential is declared by the sale of electricity company.
S13, according to the month to be analyzed be averaged declare electricity price and the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price
Price differential, the minimum of enterprise to be predicted is calculated and declares electricity price；
It should be noted that described minimum electricity price of declaring obtains on the basis of declaring electricity price and striking a bargain.The step
Rapid S13, which is calculated, to be carried out based on step S11 and step S12 result, it is assumed that it is a1 that being averaged of month to be analyzed, which declares electricity price,
Electricity price price differential a2 declares in sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted, then the minimum of enterprise to be predicted now declares electricity price a3=a1-a2.
S14, the electricity supply and demand ratio for obtaining history each month, the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated；
It should be noted that the ratio between power consumption needed for whole power plant generated energy and whole sale of electricity enterprises is supply and demand
Than because existing electricity transaction rule is that row electricity purchase every month, so needing the electricity in each month of statistical history
Supply and demand ratio is measured, then prediction obtains the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed.
S15, the supply and demand ratio ratio according to the month to be analyzed, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted is carried out
Adjustment, generation declare electricity price scheme, wherein, the enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price information include it is minimum declare electricity price, the moon is put down
Declare electricity price and historical high declares electricity price.
It is adjusted according to supply and demand ratio ratio to declaring electricity price information, enables to results of prediction and calculation more accurate, and
And electricity price scheme is declared in corresponding generation, the program, which has divided, declares risk class, i.e., high, normal, basic three kinds of risk class.
By technical scheme disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention one, by the historical trading data to each sale of electricity enterprise and treat
The history declaration data of the sale of electricity enterprise of prediction is analyzed, because all analyses and calculating process are to use history number
According to the influence of the subjective factor for reducing people of progress, and electricity supply and demand ratio and historical average evidence are taken into full account, to this
The minimum of sale of electricity enterprise declares electricity price, averagely declares electricity price and highest is declared electricity price and adjusted, the result after so adjusting
The risk assessment during electricity price is declared is more conformed to, has ultimately generated and has declared electricity price scheme, disclosure satisfy that the sale of electricity enterprise pair
The demand of electricity price accuracy is declared, and then improves the accuracy for declaring electricity price, realizing the sale of electricity enterprise reduces investment risk
With the target of increase profit.
Embodiment two
With reference to the detailed process of S11 to the S15 steps described in the embodiment of the present invention one and Fig. 1, in the present embodiment
The various possible embodiments for declaring Electricity price forecasting solution will be described.
The conclusion of the business rule of power exchange sorts according to declaring electricity price from high to low for sale of electricity company, electricity power enterprise according to
Quotation is sorted from low to high, and quotation highest buyer strikes a bargain at first with the minimum seller that offers, and is then declared according to sale of electricity company
Electricity price subtracts electricity power enterprise's declared value and struck a bargain for canonical, forms matching pair, until electricity is that odd jobs price differential is negative.Electricity power enterprise
Successively according to price priority, generating set capacity is preferential, the order of declaring time priority is matched, and sale of electricity enterprise is namely
Power consumer is can be understood as to be matched according to price priority, the order for declaring time priority successively.Conclusion of the business electricity price is both sides
The average price of quotation, sale of electricity enterprise is when acting on behalf of the packing of garden enterprise and participating in business, if conclusion of the business electricity is less than declaring electricity, according to than
Example is by conclusion of the business power energy allocation to acting on behalf of electricity consumption enterprise.
Formulated according to the conclusion of the business of power exchange rule for one of Consideration and declared Electricity price forecasting solution.
Advanced row data acquisition is needed before the realization of whole method, the data got directly include or included indirectly
Sale of electricity enterprise monthly average, which declares electricity price, the sale of electricity enterprise moon strikes a bargain declares electricity price, minimum declares electricity price, supply and demand ratio and conclusion of the business highest Shen
Report electricity price.
Because may be different due to channel when obtaining data, or data save mode is different, or during data
Between length it is different, causing some forms of data, either type has loss or abnormal.So need all to what is got in advance
Data carry out data prediction, are met the data message of preset rules.
Specifically can be by the way that the data message got be imported into the DAS specified, such as SPSS soft
Part.The accuracy of data is first looked at, i.e. data are either with or without mess code, if mess code phenomenon be present, to check data import format
Whether the relevant information such as correct.Data processing is carried out if without mess code, it is therefore an objective to make data ensure to complete, i.e., no missing values
With exceptional value etc..Conventional data processing method can include but is not limited to regression imputation method, multiple interpolation, Random Interpolation
Method etc..Suitable method progress data processing is chosen according to being actually needed.
On the basis of embodiment one, it is assumed that it is a1 that being averaged of month to be analyzed, which declares electricity price, sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted
Declare electricity price price differential a2, then the minimum of enterprise to be predicted now declares electricity price a3=a1-a2；
Then the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month is obtained, the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated, should
Step can specifically include：
Obtain the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month；
The monthly average value of supply and demand ratio is calculated；
According to the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month, the supply and demand ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated by gray model
Value；
Using the monthly average value and the supply and demand ratio in the month to be analyzed of the supply and demand ratio, the moon to be analyzed is calculated
The supply and demand ratio ratio of part.
For example, the monthly average value of supply and demand ratio is the summation of whole history month supply and demand ratios, with total month quantity
Ratio.
Supply and demand ratio is power plant and sale of electricity business electrical amount ratio every month.In power plant and sale of electricity enterprise monthly power consumption
In the case of known, the supply and demand ratio that can calculate the 4-6 months is 0.838,0.965,0.922.Using Grey Model July
Supply and demand ratio be 0.881.Therefore the supply and demand ratio average value of the 4-7 months is (0.838+0.965+0.922+0.881)/4=0.908, July
Ratio shared by part is 0.881/0.908=0.97.
Wherein, gray model is a kind of forecast model, i.e.,：
For the predicted value in month to be analyzed；x(1)The data sequence for representing initial data one-accumulate and generating；k
Represent time, i.e. month；A represents to develop grey number, is constant；Parameter μ is to control grey number, the i.e. input to system.
Month to be analyzed is calculated in the present invention is averaged that to declare electricity price be also to be predicted meter by gray model
Calculate, the highest that the gray model can be also used for the conclusion of the business that prediction calculates month to be analyzed declares electricity price.
On the basis of embodiment one, referring to Fig. 2, according to the supply and demand ratio ratio in the month to be analyzed, to it is described treat it is pre-
The electricity price information of declaring for surveying enterprise is adjusted, and electricity price scheme is declared in generation, can be included：
S21, calculate the enterprise to be predicted monthly average declare electricity price and the supply and demand ratio ratio in the month to be analyzed it
Between ratio, obtain target monthly average and declare electricity price；
S22, calculate between the minimum supply and demand ratio ratio for declaring electricity price and the month to be analyzed of the enterprise to be predicted
Ratio, obtain that target is minimum to declare electricity price；
S23, the historical high for obtaining the enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price, and described treat point is obtained by Grey Model
The target highest in analysis month declares electricity price；
S24, averagely declare according to the target that electricity price, target are minimum to declare electricity price and target highest declares electricity price, generation
Electricity price range intervals are declared, and the electricity price range intervals of declaring are mapped with declaring risk class, obtain declaring electricity price
Scheme.
For example, in the case of known to power plant and sale of electricity enterprise monthly power consumption, the confession of the 4-6 months can be calculated
Need to be than for 0.838,0.965,0.922.The supply and demand ratio in Grey Model July is used as 0.881.Therefore the supply and demand ratio of the 4-7 months
Average value is (0.838+0.965+0.922+0.881)/4=0.908, and the ratio shared by July is 0.881/0.908=
0.97, initial minimum electricity price of declaring is 306.434, averagely declares electricity price as 308.317.
The minimum electricity price of declaring of conclusion of the business after adjustment is：306.434/0.97=314.384
Revised electricity price of averagely declaring is：308.317/0.97=317.85
When carrying out declaring grade setting during electricity price declares scheme, two grades of height are can be set as, then corresponding Shen
Report electricity price interval value be：
Risk is low：[target averagely declares electricity price, and target highest declares electricity price]
Risk is high：[target is minimum to declare electricity price, and target averagely declares electricity price]
It should be noted that no matter obtain minimum declaring electricity price or highest is declared on the premise of electricity price is all based on conclusion of the business
Carry out counting calculating.
If if risk class further divided, that is, when being divided into high, normal, basic Three Estate, this method may be used also
With including：
According to preset ratio, averagely declare the target electricity price and carry out up-regulation processing, up-regulation ratio can be according to reality
Situation is configured, and this programme is set for 1%, then corresponding electricity price now declares section and is：
Risk is low：(target averagely declares the electricity price value after electricity price up-regulation 1%, and target highest declares electricity price]
In risk：(target averagely declares electricity price, and target averagely declares the electricity price value after electricity price up-regulation 1%]
Risk is high：(target is minimum to declare electricity price, and target averagely declares electricity price]
With reference to specific data message, the present invention will be described.
It is respectively 307.835,307.808,310.108 (for side that if the monthly average of sale of electricity enterprise, which declares electricity price from 4-6 months,
Just read and calculate, unit is omitted).The monthly average that July can be predicted by gray model declares electricity price as 308.317；
Price differential is to strike a bargain the adjacent moon to declare the difference of electricity price, such as striking a bargain the moon for sale of electricity company April declares electricity price and be
300, May is 304, and June is 301, then price differential in May is 4, and June, price differential was 3.
Assuming that the history price differential in 4-6 months is 4.835,2.698,2.558, average price differential is that the average value of history price differential is
(4.835+2.698+2.558)/3=3.364；
Electricity price is declared by monthly average and price differential can to calculate the minimum electricity price of declaring of conclusion of the business be 308.317-3.364=
304.953。
Supply and demand ratio is power plant and sale of electricity business electrical amount ratio every month.In power plant and sale of electricity enterprise monthly power consumption
In the case of known, the supply and demand ratio that can calculate the 4-6 months is 0.838,0.965,0.922.Using Grey Model July
Supply and demand ratio be 0.881.Therefore the supply and demand ratio average value of the 4-7 months is (0.838+0.965+0.922+0.881)/4=0.908, July
Ratio shared by part is 0.881/0.908=0.97.
The minimum electricity price of declaring of assumptive close is 306.434：
The minimum electricity price of declaring of conclusion of the business after adjustment is：306.434/0.97=314.384
Revised electricity price of averagely declaring is：308.317/0.97=317.85
For next monthly average conclusion of the business electricity price, if monthly average conclusion of the business in April electricity price is 302.9, May is 303.5, June
Part is 302.45, then the average conclusion of the business electricity price that next month can be calculated by grey forecasting model is 301.4.
If it is respectively 320,318.23,324.579 that the highest that 4-6 months strike a bargain, which declares electricity price, pass through grey forecasting model
The conclusion of the business highest that next month can be predicted declares electricity price as 324, and it is 1% to preset average electricity price up-regulation ratio, then 317.853*
1.01=321.031.
From result above can with following quotation scheme：
Risk is low：(321.031,324]
In risk：(317.853,321.031]
Risk is high：(314.384,317.853]
Then sale of electricity enterprise can choose in the low electricity price section of risk declares electricity price and is declared.
Technical scheme disclosed according to embodiments of the present invention two, the minimum of conclusion of the business declare electricity price mainly by power consumer section
Section declare electricity price, strike a bargain it is minimum declare electricity price, electricity supply and demand ratio, monthly average conclusion of the business electricity price these influence.Averagely declare electricity
Valency major influence factors are that power consumer segment declares electricity price, electricity supply and demand ratio；Highest declares electricity price major influence factors
Agreement electricity price, the minimum of electricity power enterprise with user declare electricity price；Analysis based on above-mentioned each influence factor and it is calculated
Target averagely declares that electricity price, target are minimum to declare electricity price and target highest declares electricity price, then generates high, medium and low three kinds of risks
Assess section.The influence of artificial subjective judgement factor is reduced, by gray scale forecast model data have been carried out with prediction and has been calculated, has been made
Data result is more accurate, while there is provided risk class can make to declare electricity price it is more accurate.
Embodiment three
Electricity price forecasting solution is corresponding with declaring disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention one and embodiment two, implementation of the invention
Example three additionally provides one kind and declares Research on electricity price prediction device, and referring to Fig. 3, the device includes：
First computing module 1, for the historical trading data information according to each sale of electricity enterprise, it is each that history is calculated
Electricity price is declared in being averaged for month, and by it is described averagely declare electricity price being averaged for month to be analyzed be calculated declare electricity price；
Second computing module 2, the data of electricity price are declared for being struck a bargain by the history of sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted, are calculated
Electricity price price differential is declared to the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted；
3rd computing module 3, for declaring electricity price and the sale of electricity to be predicted according to being averaged for the month to be analyzed
Electricity price price differential is declared by enterprise, and the minimum of enterprise to be predicted is calculated and declares electricity price；
4th computing module 4, for obtaining the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month, month to be analyzed is calculated
Supply and demand ratio ratio；
Generation module 5, for the supply and demand ratio ratio according to the month to be analyzed, electricity is declared to the enterprise to be predicted
Valency information is adjusted, and electricity price scheme is declared in generation, wherein, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted includes minimum declare
Electricity price, monthly average declare electricity price and historical high declares electricity price.
Corresponding, the device also includes：
Pretreatment module, for carrying out data prediction to historical trading data information, it is met the number of preset rules
It is believed that breath.
Specifically, the 4th computing module includes：
Acquiring unit, for obtaining the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month；
First computing unit, for the monthly average value of supply and demand ratio to be calculated；
Second computing unit, for the electricity supply and demand ratio according to history each month, it is calculated by gray model
The supply and demand ratio in month to be analyzed；
3rd computing unit, for the monthly average value and the supply and demand ratio in the month to be analyzed using the supply and demand ratio
Value, the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated.
Accordingly, the generation module includes：
4th computing unit, the monthly average for calculating the enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price and the month to be analyzed
Ratio between supply and demand ratio ratio, obtain target monthly average and declare electricity price；
5th computing unit, for calculating the minimum confession for declaring electricity price and the month to be analyzed of the enterprise to be predicted
It need to obtain that target is minimum to declare electricity price than the ratio between ratio；
6th computing unit, the historical high for obtaining the enterprise to be predicted declares electricity price, pre- by gray model
The target highest for measuring the month to be analyzed declares electricity price；
7th computing unit, for averagely being declared according to the target, electricity price, target are minimum to declare electricity price and target highest
Electricity price is declared, electricity price range intervals are declared in generation, and the electricity price range intervals of declaring are mapped with declaring risk class,
Obtain declaring electricity price scheme.
Specifically, the generation module also includes：
Adjustment unit, for according to preset ratio, averagely declaring electricity price to the target and carrying out up-regulation processing.
In embodiments of the invention three, looked forward to by the historical trading data to each sale of electricity enterprise and sale of electricity to be predicted
The history declaration data of industry is analyzed, because all analyses and calculating process are the reductions that are carried out using historical data
The influence of the subjective factor of people, and electricity supply and demand ratio and historical average evidence have been taken into full account, to the sale of electricity enterprise most
Low to declare electricity price, averagely declare electricity price and highest is declared electricity price and adjusted, the result after so adjusting more conforms to electricity price
Risk assessment during declaring, ultimately generate and declared electricity price scheme, disclosure satisfy that the sale of electricity enterprise is accurate to declaring electricity price
Property demand, and then improve the accuracy for declaring electricity price, realizing the sale of electricity enterprise reduces investment risk and increase profit
Target.
Each embodiment is described by the way of progressive in this specification, what each embodiment stressed be and other
The difference of embodiment, between each embodiment identical similar portion mutually referring to.For device disclosed in embodiment
For, because it is corresponded to the method disclosed in Example, so description is fairly simple, related part is said referring to method part
It is bright.
The foregoing description of the disclosed embodiments, professional and technical personnel in the field are enable to realize or using the present invention.
A variety of modifications to these embodiments will be apparent for those skilled in the art, as defined herein
General Principle can be realized in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention.Therefore, it is of the invention
The embodiments shown herein is not intended to be limited to, and is to fit to and principles disclosed herein and features of novelty phase one
The most wide scope caused.
Claims (10)
1. one kind declares Electricity price forecasting solution, it is characterised in that this method includes：
According to the historical trading data information of each sale of electricity enterprise, being averaged for history each month is calculated and declares electricity price, and
By it is described averagely declare electricity price being averaged for month to be analyzed be calculated declare electricity price；
Struck a bargain by the history of sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted and declare the data of electricity price, the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted is calculated
Declare electricity price price differential；
According to the month to be analyzed be averaged declare electricity price and the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price price differential, calculate
Obtain the minimum of enterprise to be predicted and declare electricity price；
The electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month is obtained, the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated；
According to the supply and demand ratio ratio in the month to be analyzed, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted is adjusted, it is raw
Into declaring electricity price scheme, wherein, the enterprise to be predicted declare electricity price information include it is minimum declare electricity price, monthly average declares electricity
Valency and historical high declare electricity price.
2. according to the method for claim 1, it is characterised in that this method also includes：
Data prediction is carried out to historical trading data information, is met the data message of preset rules.
3. according to the method for claim 1, it is characterised in that the electricity supply and demand ratio for obtaining history each month,
The supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated, including：
Obtain the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month；
The monthly average value of supply and demand ratio is calculated；
According to the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month, the supply and demand ratio in month to be analyzed is calculated by gray model；
Using the monthly average value and the supply and demand ratio in the month to be analyzed of the supply and demand ratio, month to be analyzed is calculated
Supply and demand ratio ratio.
4. according to the method for claim 1, it is characterised in that the supply and demand ratio ratio according to the month to be analyzed,
The electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted is adjusted, electricity price scheme is declared in generation, including：
The monthly average for calculating the enterprise to be predicted declares ratio between electricity price and the supply and demand ratio ratio in the month to be analyzed,
Obtain target monthly average and declare electricity price；
The ratio between the minimum supply and demand ratio ratio for declaring electricity price and the month to be analyzed of the enterprise to be predicted is calculated, is obtained
Electricity price is declared to target is minimum；
The historical high for obtaining the enterprise to be predicted declares electricity price, and the month to be analyzed is obtained by Grey Model
Target highest declares electricity price；
Averagely declare that electricity price, target are minimum to declare electricity price and target highest declares electricity price according to the target, electricity price is declared in generation
Range intervals, and the electricity price range intervals of declaring are mapped with declaring risk class, obtain declaring electricity price scheme.
5. according to the method for claim 4, it is characterised in that this method also includes：
According to preset ratio, electricity price is averagely declared to the target and carries out up-regulation processing.
6. one kind declares Research on electricity price prediction device, it is characterised in that the device includes：
First computing module, for the historical trading data information according to each sale of electricity enterprise, history each month is calculated
Be averaged and declare electricity price, and by it is described averagely declare electricity price being averaged for month to be analyzed be calculated declare electricity price；
Second computing module, the data of electricity price are declared for being struck a bargain by the history of sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted, institute is calculated
That states sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted declares electricity price price differential；
3rd computing module, for declaring electricity price and the sale of electricity enterprise to be predicted according to being averaged for the month to be analyzed
Electricity price price differential is declared, the minimum of enterprise to be predicted is calculated and declares electricity price；
4th computing module, for obtaining the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month, the supply and demand in month to be analyzed is calculated
Compare ratio；
Generation module, for the supply and demand ratio ratio according to the month to be analyzed, electricity price letter is declared to the enterprise to be predicted
Breath is adjusted, and electricity price scheme is declared in generation, wherein, the electricity price information of declaring of the enterprise to be predicted declares electricity including minimum
Valency, monthly average declare electricity price and historical high declares electricity price.
7. device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that the device also includes：
Pretreatment module, for carrying out data prediction to historical trading data information, it is met the data letter of preset rules
Breath.
8. device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that the 4th computing module includes：
Acquiring unit, for obtaining the electricity supply and demand ratio in history each month；
First computing unit, for the monthly average value of supply and demand ratio to be calculated；
Second computing unit, for the electricity supply and demand ratio according to history each month, it is calculated and is treated point by gray model
Analyse the supply and demand ratio in month；
3rd computing unit, for the monthly average value and the supply and demand ratio in the month to be analyzed using the supply and demand ratio, meter
Calculation obtains the supply and demand ratio ratio in month to be analyzed.
9. device according to claim 6, it is characterised in that the generation module includes：
4th computing unit, the monthly average for calculating the enterprise to be predicted declare the supply and demand of electricity price and the month to be analyzed
Than the ratio between ratio, obtain target monthly average and declare electricity price；
5th computing unit, for calculating the minimum supply and demand ratio for declaring electricity price and the month to be analyzed of the enterprise to be predicted
Ratio between ratio, obtains that target is minimum to declare electricity price；
6th computing unit, the historical high for obtaining the enterprise to be predicted are declared electricity price, obtained by Grey Model
Target highest to the month to be analyzed declares electricity price；
7th computing unit, for averagely being declared according to the target, electricity price, target are minimum to declare electricity price and target highest is declared
Electricity price, electricity price range intervals are declared in generation, and the electricity price range intervals of declaring are mapped with declaring risk class, are obtained
Declare electricity price scheme.
10. device according to claim 9, it is characterised in that the generation module also includes：
Adjustment unit, for according to preset ratio, averagely declaring electricity price to the target and carrying out up-regulation processing.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201711213753.0A CN107730058A (en) | 2017-11-28 | 2017-11-28 | One kind declares Electricity price forecasting solution and device |
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201711213753.0A CN107730058A (en) | 2017-11-28 | 2017-11-28 | One kind declares Electricity price forecasting solution and device |
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| CN107730058A true CN107730058A (en) | 2018-02-23 |
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| CN201711213753.0A Pending CN107730058A (en) | 2017-11-28 | 2017-11-28 | One kind declares Electricity price forecasting solution and device |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109584057A (en) * | 2018-09-28 | 2019-04-05 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | Transaction details data capture method, device and server |
| CN110322074A (en) * | 2019-07-09 | 2019-10-11 | 北京华电天仁电力控制技术有限公司 | A kind of Short-term electricity price forecasting method and system considering electricity supply and demand relationship |
| CN111507766A (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2020-08-07 | 武汉科泽睿新材料科技有限公司 | Microgrid electric power big data transaction management system applying block chains and artificial intelligence |
-
2017
- 2017-11-28 CN CN201711213753.0A patent/CN107730058A/en active Pending
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109584057A (en) * | 2018-09-28 | 2019-04-05 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | Transaction details data capture method, device and server |
| CN109584057B (en) * | 2018-09-28 | 2023-08-11 | 创新先进技术有限公司 | Transaction detail data acquisition method, device and server |
| CN110322074A (en) * | 2019-07-09 | 2019-10-11 | 北京华电天仁电力控制技术有限公司 | A kind of Short-term electricity price forecasting method and system considering electricity supply and demand relationship |
| CN111507766A (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2020-08-07 | 武汉科泽睿新材料科技有限公司 | Microgrid electric power big data transaction management system applying block chains and artificial intelligence |
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Application publication date: 20180223 |