CN107609685A - It is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation - Google Patents
It is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN107609685A CN107609685A CN201710739474.1A CN201710739474A CN107609685A CN 107609685 A CN107609685 A CN 107609685A CN 201710739474 A CN201710739474 A CN 201710739474A CN 107609685 A CN107609685 A CN 107609685A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- motion
- floating
- floating motion
- envelope
- during
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
Landscapes
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, belong to Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering technical field.The present invention carries out system initialization setting according to job requirements by user to man-machine interface, measure the rolling of floating body, pitching, heaving attitude data in real time by sensor assembly and data are pre-processed and stored, numerical computations are carried out to data afterwards, real-time prediction is carried out to going through information during the envelope of floating motion, gone through during with reference to operation on the sea constraints and the floating motion envelope of prediction, the safe period window of floating motion is forecast, and corresponding operation auxiliary decision information is provided.The present invention provides safe activity duration window and decision-making assistant information for the operation on the sea influenceed by floating motion, solve the problems, such as to carry out safe efficient operation in the case of floating body sways, while also have the advantages that the lead time is short, cost is low, system complexity is relatively low, modeling is simple, stability is good.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering technical field, is related to floating motion Real-time Forecasting Method, and in particular to one
The job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation is gone through when kind is based on floating motion.
Background technology
Ship, ocean platform are that people explore ocean, develop the important tool of oceanic mineral resources, extensively using Yu Haiyang
Every field in engineering.From being designed into the Life cycle of operation for ocean floating body, ocean stormy waves environment and its caused
The response of ocean floating motion be all the time operation on the sea safety major influence factors.Excessive wave can be to ship with floating motion
Carry hoisting operation, device of diving on lash ship lay recovery, offshore lifting, oil recovery, drilling well, dynamic positioning, platform helicopter take off drop
The operation such as fall and bring serious threat.Therefore, effectively the motion to ocean floating body carries out real-time prediction, is hung to carry out sea
The operations on the sea such as dress, oil recovery, drilling well provide a stable phase window, are that current Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering field is in the urgent need to address
The problem of.
Traditionally, operation on the sea is determined according to the statistical value (such as maximum amplitude, virtual value) of ocean floating motion
Plan, this mode is overly conservative, does not account for the time variation of movable information, makees once the statistical value for floating motion occur exceedes
When swaying range of movement of industry permission, can cause within the quite a long time without operation.Corresponding operating efficiency drop
Low, operating cost improves.And in fact, in many cases, although floating motion statistical value has exceeded the operation limit, it is swayed
In being gone through during motion, always there is that motion amplitude is relatively small, disclosure satisfy that the time window of operating condition.We are called ocean
Floating motion stable phase, time window length are usually more than ten seconds to tens seconds.It is marine settings using the forecast of stable phase
Operation on the sea provides security window, can ensure the safety of operation on the sea and improve operating efficiency.
At present, floating motion stable phase forecast in ocean is mainly based upon marine environment remote sensing and carried out with reference to hydrodynamic method
Forecast.In theory, this forecasting procedure considers the wave in front of floating body, using the teaching of the invention it is possible to provide goes through information during longer Motion prediction.
But at present, this method and immature, it is necessary to considerably long research cycle, foreign study work have carried out nearly 10 years, still still
It is under test, and the country just begins one's study.Meanwhile the cost of this forecasting procedure input is higher, USN's research
The marine environment that center is subsidized and ship movement prediction project, in early investment just up to 23,000,000 dollars.And traditionally, based on floating
Body goes through the pole short-range process directly forecast using time series modeling when moving to ensure precision in extremely short forecast duration,
After 10 seconds, forecast result precision is very low, can not meet the requirement of stable phase forecast.
Therefore, for floating body operation on the sea demand, the present invention proposes a kind of based on the operation peace that enveloping estimation is gone through when moving
Steady phase forecast system.At present, do not have both at home and abroad the stable phase forecasting procedure of operation that enveloping estimation is gone through during based on floating motion and
System.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of operation on the sea that can be influenceed for boat-carrying lifting etc. by floating motion to provide
The activity duration window of one safety and decision-making assistant information based on floating motion when go through enveloping estimation the job safety phase it is pre-
Reporting system.
The object of the present invention is achieved like this：
The invention discloses it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, it is including man-machine
Interactive module, sensor assembly, data memory module, data preprocessing module, Numerical Simulation Module, check analysis module and it is
System aid decision module；Its concrete implementation step includes：
(1) user carries out system initialization setting by man-machine interface, analysis is subsequently calculated for system according to job requirements
Input is provided；
(2) rolling, pitching, heaving attitude data of floating body are measured in real time by sensor assembly, data are carried out
Necessary pretreatment, and stored using the database in data memory module；
(3) carry out numerical computations using pretreated sample data, go through during the envelope of extract real-time sample data, to floating
Information, which is gone through, during the envelope of body motion carries out real-time prediction；
(4) gone through during floating motion envelope based on operation on the sea constraints and prediction, to the safe period window of floating motion
Mouth is forecast, and provides corresponding operation auxiliary decision information.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, described in step (3)
Gone through during the envelope of floating motion including coenvelope and lower envelope, wherein coenvelope to the maximum gone through during floating motion by clicking through
Row spline-fit is obtained, and lower envelope is obtained by carrying out spline-fit to the minimum point gone through during floating motion.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, described in step (4)
Gone through during motion envelope prediction passage time series model realize, wherein time series models include linear session series model,
Nonlinear Time Series Model and neural network model.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, described step (4) needs
Check analysis are carried out to receiving data, judge the operation auxiliary decision information of output, it, which implements step, includes：
(4.1) demand input tolerable error band is constrained according to operation, if prediction result history error is less than under error band
Limit, then decision-making assistant information is " executable ", is indicated in outlet terminal with green light；
(4.2) demand input tolerable error band is constrained according to operation, it is auxiliary if prediction result is in the range of error band
It is " waiting to be confirmed " to help decision information, is indicated in outlet terminal with amber light；
(4.3) if prediction result error exceedes the scope of error band, decision-making assistant information is " not can perform ", is being exported
Terminal is alerted with red light and indicated.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, during described floating motion
Gone through when going through the rolling including various ships and ocean platform, pitching and heaving.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, safe period forecast system
Applicable operation includes all being swayed the operation on the sea that motion influenceed by floating body.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are：The invention discloses it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through enveloping estimation operation peace
Full period forecast system, envelope is gone through during using floating motion and is forecast to swaying the operation stable phase in motion.On the one hand, use
The method that envelope is forecast is gone through during floating motion, for going through forecast when being directly based upon floating motion compared to tradition, effectively
The forecast duration gone through during motion is extended, disclosure satisfy that the stable phase forecasts the requirement to duration；On the other hand, the present invention proposes
The stable phase forecast system force at the core parts of * be still based on floating motion data and time series analysis, compared to current
For method based on marine environment remote sensing and prediction of hydrodynamics, have the lead time is short, cost is low, it is easy realize, system it is multiple
The advantages that miscellaneous degree is relatively low, modeling is simple, stability is good.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is present system structure composition schematic diagram；
Fig. 2 goes through envelope line drawing result schematic diagram when being and the motion of ship heaving is analyzed in the present invention；
Fig. 3 is that the prediction result schematic diagram that envelope is gone through during the motion of ship heaving is analyzed in the present invention；
Fig. 4 is the stable phase forecast result schematic diagram of motion work that ship heaving is analyzed in the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention is described further below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
With reference to Fig. 1, the invention discloses it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation,
Including human-computer interaction module 1, data memory module 2, data preprocessing module 3, Numerical Simulation Module 4, system supplymentary decision model
Block 5, sensor assembly 6 and check analysis module 7, additionally including system input terminal 8, database 9, server 10 and system
Input terminal 11, the system are obtained when floating body sways motion by sensor assembly 6 and count evidence one by one, passed through and the pre- of envelope is gone through during motion
Survey to realize that floating body sways the selection of the stable phase window of operation and operating decision in motion；Its concrete implementation step includes：
(1) user carries out system initialization setting by man-machine interface, analysis is subsequently calculated for system according to job requirements
Input is provided；
(2) rolling, pitching, heaving attitude data of floating body are measured in real time by sensor assembly, data are carried out
Necessary pretreatment, and stored using the database in data memory module；
(3) carry out numerical computations using pretreated sample data, go through during the envelope of extract real-time sample data, to floating
Information, which is gone through, during the envelope of body motion carries out real-time prediction；
(4) gone through during floating motion envelope based on operation on the sea constraints and prediction, to the safe period window of floating motion
Mouth is forecast, and provides corresponding operation auxiliary decision information.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, described in step (3)
Gone through during the envelope of floating motion including coenvelope and lower envelope, wherein coenvelope to the maximum gone through during floating motion by clicking through
Row spline-fit is obtained, and lower envelope is obtained by carrying out spline-fit to the minimum point gone through during floating motion.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, described in step (4)
Gone through during motion envelope prediction passage time series model realize, wherein time series models include linear session series model,
Nonlinear Time Series Model and neural network model.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, described step (4) needs
Check analysis are carried out to receiving data, judge the operation auxiliary decision information of output, it, which implements step, includes：
(4.1) demand input tolerable error band is constrained according to operation, if prediction result history error is less than under error band
Limit, then decision-making assistant information is " executable ", is indicated in outlet terminal with green light；
(4.2) demand input tolerable error band is constrained according to operation, it is auxiliary if prediction result is in the range of error band
It is " waiting to be confirmed " to help decision information, is indicated in outlet terminal with amber light；
(4.3) if prediction result error exceedes the scope of error band, decision-making assistant information is " not can perform ", is being exported
Terminal is alerted with red light and indicated.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, during described floating motion
Gone through when going through the rolling including various ships and ocean platform, pitching and heaving.
For it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, safe period forecast system
Applicable operation includes all being swayed the operation on the sea that motion influenceed by floating body.
In addition, it is disclosed by the invention it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through enveloping estimation job safety phase forecast system tool
Body realizes that step is also denoted as：
(1) in input terminal 8, systematic parameter is initialized according to demand in human-computer interaction module 1, user, a side
Face is that resource allocation in data buffer storage 2 etc. is configured；On the other hand, then it is that the acquisition parameter of sensor assembly 6 is entered
Row is set and check and correction.
(2) parameter configured according to input terminal 8, sensor assembly 6 are counted one by one real-time according to carrying out when motion is swayed to floating body
Collection, changes and is stored in the good database 9 of configured in advance.
(3) according to system parameter setting, data preprocessing module 3 is performed, it is real under the hardware condition that server 10 provides
It is existing.Necessary pretreatment mainly is carried out to modeling sample data used, mainly includes noise-removed filtering and data is again equal
Even sampling, to meet the input requirements of follow-up Numerical Simulation Module 4.
(4) Numerical Simulation Module 3 is the nucleus module of the present invention, is realized under the hardware condition that server 10 provides.Its
Main contents include counting the prediction for going through envelope when the envelope extraction of evidence, motion and the forecast of stable phase window during motion one by one.With reference to figure
2, exemplified by being gone through when shown ship heaving, spline-fit can be passed through using the maximum value minimum point gone through when moving
Obtain envelope up and down.
After going through envelope when obtaining heaving, the work of next step is to be based on counting one by one during upper lower envelope according to progress time series
Modeling, mainly uses linear session series model, Nonlinear Time Series Model and neural network model etc., shown in Fig. 3
For using lower envelope forecast result on the heaving of auto-regressive time series model.With reference to Fig. 3 stable phase forecast result, together
When constraints with reference to operation on the sea to ship heaving, the forecast result of stable phase window can be obtained as shown in figure 4,
Wherein, in the present embodiment analysis, threshold values takes 1 meter.Above-mentioned is the implementation procedure of mathematical calculation model.
(5) synthetic job constraint demand, the error analysis of history predictive result, artificial micro-judgment, design specification requirement
Etc. the factor of many aspects, stable phase prediction error allowed band is obtained.It is defeated from check analysis module 7 to aid decision module 5
Enter tolerable error band, if prediction result history error is less than the lower limit of error band, decision-making assistant information is " executable ", defeated
Go out terminal to be indicated with green light；If prediction result, in the range of error band, decision-making assistant information is " waiting to be confirmed ", defeated
Go out terminal to be indicated with amber light；If prediction result error exceedes the scope of error band, decision-making assistant information is " not can perform ",
Outlet terminal is alerted with red light and indicated.
The preferred embodiments of the present invention are the foregoing is only, are not intended to limit the invention, for the skill of this area
For art personnel, the present invention can have various modifications and variations.Within the spirit and principles of the invention, that is made any repaiies
Change, equivalent substitution, improvement etc., should be included in the scope of the protection.
Claims (6)
1. it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, it is characterised in that including man-machine friendship
Mutual module, sensor assembly, data memory module, data preprocessing module, Numerical Simulation Module, check analysis module and system
Aid decision module；Its concrete implementation step includes：
(1) user carries out system initialization setting by man-machine interface, analysis is subsequently calculated for system and is provided according to job requirements
Input；
(2) rolling, pitching, heaving attitude data of floating body are measured in real time by sensor assembly, data are carried out necessary
Pretreatment, and stored using the database in data memory module；
(3) carry out numerical computations using pretreated sample data, go through during the envelope of extract real-time sample data, floating body is transported
Information is gone through during dynamic envelope and carries out real-time prediction；
(4) gone through during floating motion envelope based on operation on the sea constraints and prediction, the safe period window of floating motion is entered
Row forecast, and corresponding operation auxiliary decision information is provided.
2. it is according to claim 1 it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, its
It is characterised by：Go through during the envelope of the floating motion described in step (3) and pass through right including coenvelope and lower envelope, wherein coenvelope
The maximum point gone through during floating motion carries out spline-fit and obtained, and lower envelope to the minimum point gone through during floating motion by carrying out
Spline-fit obtains.
3. it is according to claim 1 it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, its
It is characterised by：The prediction passage time series model that envelope is gone through during motion described in step (4) realizes, wherein time series mould
Type includes linear session series model, Nonlinear Time Series Model and neural network model.
4. it is according to claim 1 it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, its
It is characterised by, described step (4) needs to carry out check analysis to receiving data, judges the operation auxiliary decision information of output,
It, which implements step, includes：
(4.1) demand input tolerable error band is constrained according to operation, if prediction result history error is less than the lower limit of error band,
Decision-making assistant information is " executable ", is indicated in outlet terminal with green light；
(4.2) demand input tolerable error band is constrained according to operation, if prediction result, in the range of error band, auxiliary is determined
Plan information is " waiting to be confirmed ", is indicated in outlet terminal with amber light；
(4.3) if prediction result error exceedes the scope of error band, decision-making assistant information is " not can perform ", in outlet terminal
Alerted and indicated with red light.
5. it is according to claim 1 it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, its
It is characterised by：Gone through when going through the rolling including various ships and ocean platform, pitching and heaving during described floating motion.
6. it is according to claim 1 it is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation, its
It is characterised by：The applicable operation of safe period forecast system includes all being swayed the operation on the sea that motion influenceed by floating body.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710739474.1A CN107609685A (en) | 2017-08-22 | 2017-08-22 | It is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710739474.1A CN107609685A (en) | 2017-08-22 | 2017-08-22 | It is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN107609685A true CN107609685A (en) | 2018-01-19 |
Family
ID=61065842
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710739474.1A Pending CN107609685A (en) | 2017-08-22 | 2017-08-22 | It is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN107609685A (en) |
Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110745212A (en) * | 2019-10-21 | 2020-02-04 | 中国舰船研究设计中心 | Carrier-based aircraft landing aid decision-making method and device based on wave measurement |
| CN110826290A (en) * | 2019-10-31 | 2020-02-21 | 中国海洋大学 | Safety early warning method for offshore floating system |
| CN116842381A (en) * | 2023-06-13 | 2023-10-03 | 青岛哈尔滨工程大学创新发展中心 | Ship motion extremely-short-term prediction model generalization optimization method based on data fusion |
| CN116861202A (en) * | 2023-09-05 | 2023-10-10 | 青岛哈尔滨工程大学创新发展中心 | Ship motion envelope forecasting method and system based on long-term and short-term memory neural network |
Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101859146A (en) * | 2010-07-16 | 2010-10-13 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Satellite fault prediction method based on predictive filtering and empirical mode decomposition |
-
2017
- 2017-08-22 CN CN201710739474.1A patent/CN107609685A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN101859146A (en) * | 2010-07-16 | 2010-10-13 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Satellite fault prediction method based on predictive filtering and empirical mode decomposition |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| 徐海祥: "《船舶动力定位系统原理》", 31 October 2016, 国防工业出版社 * |
| 黄礼敏: "海浪中非平稳非线性舰船运动在线预报研究", 《万方学位论文数据库》 * |
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110745212A (en) * | 2019-10-21 | 2020-02-04 | 中国舰船研究设计中心 | Carrier-based aircraft landing aid decision-making method and device based on wave measurement |
| CN110826290A (en) * | 2019-10-31 | 2020-02-21 | 中国海洋大学 | Safety early warning method for offshore floating system |
| CN110826290B (en) * | 2019-10-31 | 2021-07-20 | 中国海洋大学 | Safety early warning method for offshore floating system |
| CN116842381A (en) * | 2023-06-13 | 2023-10-03 | 青岛哈尔滨工程大学创新发展中心 | Ship motion extremely-short-term prediction model generalization optimization method based on data fusion |
| CN116861202A (en) * | 2023-09-05 | 2023-10-10 | 青岛哈尔滨工程大学创新发展中心 | Ship motion envelope forecasting method and system based on long-term and short-term memory neural network |
| CN116861202B (en) * | 2023-09-05 | 2023-12-19 | 青岛哈尔滨工程大学创新发展中心 | Ship motion envelope forecasting method and system based on long-term and short-term memory neural network |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN107609685A (en) | It is a kind of based on floating motion when go through the job safety phase forecast system of enveloping estimation | |
| CN106679625B (en) | Wide scope electric power tower high-precision deformation monitoring method based on dipper system | |
| CN107941537B (en) | A kind of mechanical equipment health state evaluation method | |
| CN107545250A (en) | A kind of ocean floating motion Real-time Forecasting System based on the remote sensing of wave image and artificial intelligence | |
| CN109145445A (en) | A kind of hydroelectric project intelligent construction management system | |
| CN105608842A (en) | Nuclear reactor fuel failure online monitoring alarm device | |
| CN110516972A (en) | A kind of ship sails and operation on the sea comprehensive forecasting assessment system | |
| CN109522599A (en) | Transmission line of electricity catastrophic failure method for early warning caused by a kind of typhoon | |
| CN110414742A (en) | A kind of freshwater line intelligent Forecasting of more gaging station linkages | |
| CN107571965A (en) | A kind of ship operation on the sea auxiliary decision-making support system based on mobile terminal | |
| CN109857782A (en) | A kind of Monitor of Logging Data Processing System | |
| CN115965246B (en) | Early warning analysis method for karst collapse disasters | |
| CN110445939A (en) | The prediction technique and device of capacity resource | |
| CN112434948A (en) | Marine salvage operation sea gas environment risk assessment system | |
| CN113240245A (en) | Offshore wind power operation index prediction system and prediction method | |
| CN106872663A (en) | A kind of gas outbursts Prediction method for early warning based on big data platform | |
| CN116777085B (en) | Coal mine water damage prediction system based on data analysis and machine learning technology | |
| CN113962426A (en) | Offshore water navigation safety intelligent forecasting method and device | |
| CN102298855A (en) | Dangerous chemical ship traffic organization optimization method based on simulation | |
| CN113486599B (en) | Method for calculating effective stroke of oil pumping unit | |
| CN110068663A (en) | A kind of appraisal procedure of ocean nuclear pollution degree | |
| CN109029711A (en) | A kind of multistage frequency discrimination methods of dynamic bridge structure | |
| CN113408888A (en) | Intelligent monitoring system of hydraulic metal structure equipment based on cloud platform | |
| CN105676313B (en) | For bridge spanning the sea construction marine site wave field, the regional prediction method of wind speed field | |
| CN118098423B (en) | Analysis method and system for oil spill diffusion |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20180119 |