CN107527137A - Urban mass transit network maturity determines method - Google Patents
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Abstract
Urban mass transit network maturity determines method.Lack the method for evaluation urban mass transit network development level at present.The inventive method includes：Determine four indexs of urban mass transit network maturity：Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power；Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, the mathematical modeling of city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power this four indexs are determined respectively；Calculate Network scale maturity, service passenger flow coverage rate maturity, city accessibility growth rate maturity and traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity；Determine the weight of each maturity；Urban mass transit network maturity is calculated according to each maturity and the weight of each maturity being calculated.The present invention carries out the assessment of network maturity to the alternative of track traffic line meshwork planning, can be derived that quantitative, objective result, is convenient for the ratio choosing and optimization of scheme.
Description
Technical field：
The present invention relates to a kind of method for evaluating urban mass transit network development level, more particularly to a kind of city rail
Road transportation network maturity determines method.
Background technology：
(1) research object be urban mass transit network in itself, be conceived in a certain respect.From the outer of Rail traffic network
Portion's environment is to Inner Constitution part；From planning, to construction, to operation；Or planing method, or Rail traffic network performance evaluation
Optimize with evaluation, or Trip distribution, or method for running, or the subsystem performance such as power supply, AFC, communication optimizes, or it is to the energy
The effect of environment, or the contribution to social economy.Key project of the urban mass transit network as urban development in recent years,
Have become the focus of all trades and professions focus of attention, these achievements have promoted the development of urban mass transit network jointly, are opinions
The basis of text research.
(2) research is conceived to a certain stage of urban mass transit network development.It is specific background in these researchs
Lower progress, such as track traffic line meshwork planning method are under the trend of urban development, not only solve the friendship that city becomes increasingly conspicuous
Correspond topic, and the development (TOD patterns) of urban structure can be promoted.Rail traffic network operation be track traffic into
Efficiency of operation is improved on the premise of net.Although these achievements in research are not conceived to the whole process of Rail traffic network development,
But method, measure and the means of moment lower railway transportation network construction and development are there is provided, and the base studied herein
Plinth and reference part.
The content of the invention：
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of urban mass transit network maturity to determine method.
Above-mentioned purpose is realized by following technical scheme：
Described urban mass transit network maturity determines that method is realized by following steps：
Step 1: propose urban mass transit network maturity concept；Determine the four of urban mass transit network maturity
Individual index：Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power；Provide ripe value
For the quantized result of mature indicator；
Step 2: determine that Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand are adjusted respectively
Save the mathematical modeling of this four indexs of power；
Step 3: determine that Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand are adjusted respectively
Save the actual value and maturation value of this four indexs of power；
Step 4: the ratio of the actual value and its ripe value of each mature indicator is calculated, it is ripe respectively as Network scale
Degree, service passenger flow coverage rate maturity, city accessibility growth rate maturity and traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity；
Step 5: determine the weight of each maturity in step 4；
Step 6: the weight of each maturity that each maturity and step 4 that are calculated according to step 4 determine is counted
Calculate urban mass transit network maturity.
Beneficial effect：
1. four mature indicators of the invention respectively describe the one side of Rail traffic network maturity：Gauze is advised
Mould describes its physical characteristic；Service passenger flow coverage rate describes its being closely connected between traveler；City accessibility
Growth rate describes its convenience degree brought to traveler trip；And transport need regulating power then describes it to handing over
Contribution between the logical equilibrium of supply and demand, and the relation that mutual promotion between social economy conditions each other.Therefore, using four
Track traffic networking maturity is described individual mature indicator, the characteristics of can reflecting Rail traffic network comprehensively and work(
With.
2. (1) present invention is applied to the ratio choosing between multi-scheme.Net is carried out to the alternative of track traffic line meshwork planning
The assessment of network maturity, quantitative, objective result is can be derived that, be convenient for the ratio choosing and optimization of scheme.
(2) present invention can adapt to the polytropy of policy environment by the weight of index.
(3) method that the determination of weight of the present invention and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method etc. quantify qualitative analysis
It is used in combination with, application is relatively wide more flexible.
Because its application is flexible, evaluation index refining, can quantitative analysis, coordinate the staging hierarchy of maturity, the maturation
Degree method system can be applied in the following areas.
(4) a kind of method that the present invention can optimize as Urban Rail Transit Plan mode.
Urban Rail Transit planning is one and rolls perfect process, during this period, the evaluation procedure of alternative
In, only indivedual indexs such as line length, passenger flow estimation carry out quantitative assessments, and other indexs are mostly qualitatively assays.
The appraisement system that paper proposes not only allows for lifting of the rail line with resident trip convenience degree in itself, the two
The part directly related with Rail traffic network, it is also considered that the factor mutually coordinated with urban economy development, but also further
The method for giving the prediction of travel components variation tendency, during Plan mode, embody scheme middle orbit traffic
What period will be network maturity will be in, so as to quantitative, more intuitively evaluation result.
(5) foundation is provided for the planning of city rail traffic route engineering schedule.
The investment of rail transportation projects is big and cycle length determines that city must planned orderly construction.Policymaker
When carrying out decision-making, to the choice between circuit, the experience of expert is dependent on greatly and the expectation in city is carried out.The appraisement system
With reference to city is actual applied when, each side such as urban transportation, resident trip, economic development, expenditure can be taken into account,
Changed simultaneously by the weight of evaluation index, embody different-effect during policy tendency, thus, can concentrated expression city
Overall present situation, adapt to the change of policy environment, when carrying out rail line engineering schedule decision-making, the analysis that provides again
As a result it is more objective.
(6) urban mass transit network development level is accurately positioned, to give full play to the effect of urban mass transit network
Technical support is provided.
While rail line progressively completes, expands networking, obtain existing Rail traffic network sharpest edges
To fully showing, it should widely paid close attention to.Rail Transit System is positioned as the backbone of urban public transport always, and " one
Individual three stakes of hedge ", the measure of ground public transport system, related auxiliary equipment and control of traffic and road etc., all
The guarantee that will be able to give full play to as its backbone's effect.The appraisement system provides analysis and screens these safeguards
Method so that urban transportation can shoot the arrow at the target in daily management, avoid the waste of social resources.
Embodiment：
Embodiment one：
The urban mass transit network maturity of present embodiment determines method, is realized by following steps：
Step 1: propose urban mass transit network maturity concept；Determine the four of urban mass transit network maturity
Individual index：Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power；Provide ripe value
For the quantized result of mature indicator；Four mature indicators respectively describe the one side of Rail traffic network maturity：
Network scale describes its physical characteristic；Service passenger flow coverage rate describes its being closely connected between traveler；City
Accessibility growth rate describes its convenience degree brought to traveler trip；And transport need regulating power then describes
It is to the contribution between traffic supply ＆＆ demand equilibrium, and the relation that mutual promotion between social economy conditions each other.Therefore,
Track traffic networking maturity is described using four mature indicators, the spy of Rail traffic network can be reflected comprehensively
Point and function.
Step 2: determine that Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand are adjusted respectively
Save the mathematical modeling of this four indexs of power；
Step 3: determine that Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand are adjusted respectively
Save the actual value and maturation value of this four indexs of power；
Step 4: the ratio of the actual value and its ripe value of each mature indicator is calculated, it is ripe respectively as Network scale
Degree, service passenger flow coverage rate maturity, city accessibility growth rate maturity and traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity；
Step 5: determine the weight of each maturity in step 4；
Step 6: the weight of each maturity that each maturity and step 4 that are calculated according to step 4 determine is counted
Calculate urban mass transit network maturity.
Embodiment two：
Unlike embodiment one, the urban mass transit network maturity of present embodiment determines method,
It is proposed urban mass transit network maturity concept described in step 1；Determine four of urban mass transit network maturity
Index：Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power；Providing ripe value is
The quantized result of mature indicator refers respectively to,
Described urban mass transit network maturity refers to, according to Rail traffic network in Traffic Systems supply and demand
Transportation supplies are provided in structure and lure the effect for increasing transport need again；
Described Network scale is the service level that can be provided from the angle embodiment Rail traffic network of supply；
The passenger flow that described service passenger flow coverage rate refers to Metro Network and can serviced accounts for the ratio of the total passenger flow in city
Example；
Described city accessibility growth rate refers to that Rail traffic network can promote urban inner traffic degree of mobility
Lifting degree；
Described traffic supply and demand regulating power refers to that Rail traffic network is adjusted to urban transportation supply and demand state, makes
Its ability all the time in a specific stable state；
The description of maturity state describes by the ripe value of four mature indicators.Described ripe value refers to work as city
When city's Rail traffic network reaches ripe horizontal, the quantized result of the mature indicator.It is accounted for the actual value of mature indicator
The ratio of ripe value can express its ripe degree.
Embodiment three：
Unlike embodiment one or two, the urban mass transit network maturity of present embodiment determines
Method, Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power described in step 2
The mathematical modelings of this four indexs specifically,
Urban mass transit network maturity (Urban Rail Transit Maturity) is abbreviated as URTM；By line
Network planning mould maturity (Network Scale Maturity) is abbreviated as NS；Passenger flow coverage rate maturity will be serviced
(Passenger Coverage Maturity) is abbreviated as PC；By traffic supply and demand regulating power (Transportation
Supply-demand Adjustment Ability Maturity), it is abbreviated as AA；By city accessibility growth rate
(Accessibility Increase Rate Maturity), is abbreviated as AI；The computational methods of mature indicator are as follows：
(1.1) Network scale maturity URTM (NS) is the ratio between Network scale actual value and the ripe value of Network scale, is written as
Formula (1-1)：
In formula,
L represents city rail traffic route length (km)；
Ns (L) represents Rail traffic network Network scale actual value；
NS (L) represents the ripe value of Rail traffic network Network scale；
(1.2) the service passenger flow coverage rate and its ripe value that passenger flow coverage rate maturity URTM (PC) is network are serviced
Than being written as formula (1-2)：
In formula,
FpRepresent service passenger flow coverage rate；
pc(Fp) represent to service the actual value of passenger flow coverage rate；
PC(Fp) represent that the ripe of service passenger flow coverage rate is worth；
(1.3) city accessibility growth rate maturity URTM (AI) be expressed as network city accessibility growth rate and its
The ratio of maturity, it is written as formula (1-3)：
In formula,
A represents number of going on a journey per capita；
Ai (E (A)) represents the actual value of city accessibility growth rate；
AI (E (A)) represents the ripe value of city accessibility growth rate；
(1.4) traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity URTM (AA) be expressed as network traffic supply and demand regulating power and its
The ratio of maturation value, is written as formula (1-4)：
In formula,
Z represents traffic supply and demand regulating power；
Aa (Z) represents the actual value of traffic supply and demand regulating power；
AA (Z) represents the ripe value of traffic supply and demand regulating power；
(1.5) urban mass transit network maturity URTM is the comprehensive embodiment of aforementioned four mature indicator, is expressed as
The weighted sum of four mature indicators, it is written as formula (1-5)：
In formula,
Represent the weight of Network scale mature indicator；
Represent the weight of service passenger flow coverage rate mature indicator；
Represent the weight of city accessibility growth rate mature indicator；
Represent the weight of traffic supply and demand regulating power mature indicator；
(2) urban mass transit network line length L computational methods are：
Travel demand analysis method is based on the track traffic equilibrium of supply and demand, from Urban Traffic and rail line load intensity
Between relation derivation go out the method for urban mass transit network line length, computational methods are shown in formula (2-1)：
In formula,
L represents urban mass transit network line length (km)；
P represents that city total population unit is ten thousand people；
A represents number of going on a journey per capita；
θ represents orbit traffic transfer coefficient；
γ represents track traffic load intensity；
RbusRepresent that transit trip accounts for the ratio of resident trip total amount；
Rrail/busRepresent that track traffic trip accounts for the ratio of transit trip；
NS (L) represents the ripe value of Rail traffic network Network scale；
Trip origin and destination mean that resident directly can reach mesh by track traffic on track transport services network
Ground, it services volume of the flow of passengers Q1Represented with formula (2-2)：
Trip origin and destination have one when on track transport services network, and resident changes to track via other modes of transportation
Traffic, the service volume of the flow of passengers Q of Metro Network2Represented with formula (2-3)：
Q2=2 [l (G2)-l(n)-2v(n)]·[l(G2) -2] formula (2-3)
In formula,
L (n) represents rail line way；
V (n) represents orbit traffic transfer nodes；
Not when in Metro Network, resident is complete by the transfer ability twice with other modes of transportation for origin and destination
Into once going on a journey, the service volume of the flow of passengers Q of Metro Network3Represented with formula (2-4)：
Q3=[l (G2)-l(n)-2v(n)]·[2l(G2) -2l (n) -4v (n)+1] formula (2-4)
Therefore, total service volume of the flow of passengers Q of Metro NetworkpTo be write as formula (2-5)；
Qp=Q1+Q2+Q3Formula (2-5)
(3) passenger flow coverage rate is serviced, the computational methods of city accessibility growth rate are：
Service passenger flow coverage rate Fp, the mean μ and standard deviation sigma of the distribution of accessibility growth rate；The combination of different parameters value
Different results is obtained, numerical simulation is carried out using orthogonal experiment method, finds point of city dweller's entirety Accessibility lifting
Cloth feature；The accessibility growth rate desired value E (A) that city dweller integrally goes on a journey is written as formula (3-1) using Bayesian formula, i.e.,
On the premise of having available track traffic trip scheme, all trip accessibility lifting probability in the cards；Obviously,
There is the probability of available track traffic trip scheme, and track traffic may service the coverage rate F of passenger flowp；
(4) evaluation method of traffic supply and demand regulating power is：
The quantized value of Traffic Systems supply and demand homeostasis state is the Traffic Systems supply and demand under traffic tolerance
Than therefore, the thinking of Rail traffic network traffic supply and demand regulating power estimation is：Increasing is lured by what Rail traffic network supplied
The supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity of Demand Elasticity Coefficient estimated trajectory transportation supplies, the track traffic being then calculated according to investigation
Network saturation degree, draw traffic supply and demand regulating power；Wherein,
Supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρωIt is defined as the intensity of variation and Rail Transit System quantity delivered intensity of variation of supply and demand ratio
Ratio, represented with formula (4-1)：
In formula,Represent t phase Rail Transit System quantity delivereds；
wtRepresent t phase Traffic Systems supply and demand ratios；
Rail traffic network supply lures increasing Demand Elasticity Coefficient, referred to as lures increasing Demand Elasticity Coefficient, is in track traffic
On the basis of network quantity delivered variation prediction, the intensity of variation of increasing demand is lured by coefficient of elasticity predicted city traffic system, is claimed
Referred to as to lure increasing Demand Elasticity Coefficient；
Lure increasing demand to account for the ratio ξ of Traffic Systems demand Rail traffic network and be expressed as formula (4-2)：
In formula, DyRepresent by Rail Transit System quantity delivered to be increased and caused lure increasing demand；
D represents Traffic Systems demand；
Rail traffic network supply increase ratio η is expressed as formula (4-3)：
Then lure and increase Demand Elasticity Coefficient ρyBeing defined as Rail traffic network lures increasing demand to account for Traffic Systems demand
Ratio ξ and Rail traffic network supply increase ratio η ratio, i.e. formula (4-4)；
The ratio that Rail Transit System quantity delivered is accounted for urban traffic network aggregate supply is designated as Rail traffic network supply
Occupation rate ε, it is expressed as formula (4-5)：
As ε=1, the state that traffic above-ground is paralysed completely is represented, urban transportation is completely dependent on Rail traffic network；
As ε=0, representing in city does not have state existing for Rail traffic network, and supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity now is for newly-built
Circuit is predicted；
(4-1) formula is derived, then supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρωFormula (4-6) can be used to express：
With Matlab Software on Drawing supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρωFour-dimensional image understand, ρ in theoryωSpan be
ρω∈[-1,1]；As ε >=ρyWhen, ρω∈[0,1]；As ε ＜ ρyWhen, ρω∈[-1,0)；ρωTake on the occasion of mean track traffic supply
Its degree for luring increasing demand, the increase of Traffic Systems supply and demand ratio are exceeded to increased amplitude, Rail traffic network is built
If positive effect is served for urban transportation；Vice versa；
Seek ρωTo ρyPartial derivative be formula (4-7)：
Embodiment four：
Unlike embodiment three, the urban mass transit network maturity of present embodiment determines method,
The Network scale of determination respectively, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulation energy described in step 3
In the step of actual value of this four indexs of power is worth with maturation, described Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city are reachable
Property growth rate and the ripe value of traffic supply and demand regulating power be respectively,
The maturity state of urban mass transit network is：
(1) Network scale reaches perfect condition, and preferable Network scale is with the population in city, travel intensity, public friendship
The changes of the factors such as logical policy positioning and dynamic change, embody the dynamic of Rail traffic network maturity；
(2) the service passenger flow coverage rate of ripe Rail traffic network should cover more than 56% passenger flow；
(3) ripe Rail traffic network should make city accessibility growth rate reach more than 60%；
(4) the traffic supply and demand regulating power of ripe Rail traffic network should be more than 10%, i.e., the original because of rainy weather
Cause, when the surface road traffic capacity declines, meet the needs of Urban Residential Trip.
Embodiment five：
Unlike embodiment one, two or four, the urban mass transit network maturity of present embodiment is true
Determine method, the weight of each mature indicator described in step 5 is respectively that (the track traffic networking for calculating each city is ripe
, it is necessary to assign each mature indicator with corresponding weight when spending.) Network scale maturity, service passenger flow covering are assigned respectively
The weight of rate maturity, city accessibility growth rate maturity and traffic supply and demand regulating power is 0.3,0.3,0.3 and 0.1.
Embodiment six：
Unlike embodiment five, the urban mass transit network maturity of present embodiment determines method,
The weight of each maturity that each maturity and step 4 that are calculated according to step 4 described in step 6 determine calculates city
The process of city's Rail traffic network maturity is, with reference to the computational methods and result of the ripe value of fixed mature indicator, city
The quantitative description model of city's Rail traffic network maturity is as follows,
(1) Network scale maturity is expressed as formula (1)：
In formula, l represents city rail traffic route length, unit km；
P represents that city total population unit is ten thousand people；
A represents number of going on a journey per capita；
θ represents orbit traffic transfer coefficient；
γ represents track traffic load intensity；
RbusRepresent that transit trip accounts for the ratio of resident trip total amount；
Rrail/busRepresent that track traffic trip accounts for the ratio of transit trip；
(2) process of calculating major trunk roads road network coverage rate and passenger flow service coverage rate is：Collect showing according to each city
Shape communication chart, major urban arterial highway road network and rail transit network are abstracted, draws figure G1And its total length l (G1) and figure G2And its overall length
Spend l (G2), major trunk roads road network coverage rate F is calculatedr；Therewith, according to formulaObtain passenger flow service covering
Rate Fp, and then draw service passenger flow coverage rate maturity URTM (PC), that is, service passenger flow coverage rate maturity and be expressed as formula (2)：
QFRepresent total service volume of the flow of passengers of track traffic service network；
QallRepresent the total volume of the flow of passengers of major trunk roads road network；
(3) calculating the process of city accessibility growth rate is：Increase the single of the presence or absence of each city track traffic participation
Trip sample is expanded, and is fitted normal distribution distribution probability function, and it is general more than zero to obtain single Accessibility growth rate
Rate is distributedWith reference to the F drawnp, calculate corresponding city accessibility growth rate E (A)；And then draw city
Accessibility growth rate maturity URTM (AI), i.e., the network maturity based on city accessibility growth rate are expressed as formula (3)：
FpRepresent service passenger flow coverage rate；
(4) process of calculating traffic supply and demand regulating power is：The quantity delivered of present situation Rail traffic network is estimated first；Its
It is secondary, the critical event of rail transportation operation is found out, is gone out in the extracting data that statistical yearbook, government provide because critical event is produced
Raw Traffic Systems lure increasing demand, it is contemplated that the amplitude of variation of car and trip of taxi is smaller, uses bus
Change between the track traffic passenger traffic volume represents to lure increasing demand；Again, with reference to Rail traffic network before and after critical event
The change of quantity delivered, draw and lure increasing Demand Elasticity Coefficient ρy；Then, urban highway traffic capacity is estimated, can be derived that city is handed over
Logical aggregate supply, with formulaDraw supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρw；Finally, track is calculated in investigation
Transportation network saturation degree λ, draw traffic supply and demand regulating power Z；And then traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity (URTM (AA)),
Network maturity i.e. based on traffic supply and demand regulating power is expressed as formula (4)：
In formula, the track traffic daily demand volume of the flow of passengers can be provided the percentage of maximum quantity delivered with Rail traffic network,
Referred to as Rail traffic network saturation degree λ,
DrailRepresent Rail traffic network demand；
Represent the maximum quantity delivered that Rail traffic network can provide；
Represent t phase Rail Transit System quantity delivereds；
wtRepresent t phase Traffic Systems supply and demand ratios；
(5) urban mass transit network maturity is expressed as formula (5)：
Claims (6)
1. urban mass transit network maturity determines method, it is characterized in that：Described urban mass transit network maturity is true
Determine method to realize by following steps：
Step 1: propose urban mass transit network maturity concept；Determine four fingers of urban mass transit network maturity
Mark：Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power；Provide ripe value for into
The quantized result of ripe degree index；
Step 2: Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power are determined respectively
The mathematical modeling of this four indexs；
Step 3: Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power are determined respectively
The actual value of this four indexs is worth with ripe；
Step 4: the ratio of the actual value and its ripe value of each mature indicator is calculated, respectively as Network scale maturity, clothes
Passenger flow coverage rate of being engaged in maturity, city accessibility growth rate maturity and traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity；
Step 5: determine the weight of each maturity in step 4；
Step 6: the weight of each maturity that each maturity and step 4 that are calculated according to step 4 determine calculates city
Rail traffic network maturity.
2. urban mass transit network maturity according to claim 1 determines method, it is characterized in that：Described in step 1
It is proposed urban mass transit network maturity concept；Determine four indexs of urban mass transit network maturity：Network scale,
Service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power；Provide the amount that ripe value is mature indicator
Change result to refer respectively to,
Described urban mass transit network maturity refers to, according to Rail traffic network in Traffic Systems supply and demand structure
Transportation supplies are provided and lure the effect for increasing transport need again；
Described Network scale is the service level that can be provided from the angle embodiment Rail traffic network of supply；
The passenger flow that described service passenger flow coverage rate refers to Metro Network and can serviced accounts for the ratio of the total passenger flow in city；
Described city accessibility growth rate refers to that Rail traffic network can promote the lifting of urban inner traffic degree of mobility
Degree；
Described traffic supply and demand regulating power refers to that Rail traffic network is adjusted to urban transportation supply and demand state, makes it all the time
Ability in a specific stable state；
Described ripe value refer to when urban mass transit network reach maturation it is horizontal when, the quantized result of the mature indicator.
3. urban mass transit network maturity according to claim 1 or 2 determines method, it is characterized in that：Step 2 institute
The Network scale stated, service passenger flow coverage rate, the number of city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power this four indexs
Learn model specifically,
Urban mass transit network maturity is abbreviated as URTM；Network scale maturity is abbreviated as NS；Service passenger flow is covered
Lid rate maturity is abbreviated as PC；By traffic supply and demand regulating power, AA is abbreviated as；By city accessibility growth rate, AI is abbreviated as；Into
The computational methods of ripe degree index are as follows：
(1.1) Network scale maturity URTM (NS) is the ratio between Network scale actual value and the ripe value of Network scale, is written as formula (1-
1)：
In formula,
L represents city rail traffic route length (km)；
Ns (L) represents Rail traffic network Network scale actual value；
NS (L) represents the ripe value of Rail traffic network Network scale；
(1.2) the ratio between service passenger flow coverage rate and its maturation value that passenger flow coverage rate maturity URTM (PC) is network is serviced, is write
For formula (1-2)：
In formula,
FpRepresent service passenger flow coverage rate；
pc(Fp) represent to service the actual value of passenger flow coverage rate；
PC(Fp) represent that the ripe of service passenger flow coverage rate is worth；
(1.3) city accessibility growth rate maturity URTM (AI) is expressed as the city accessibility growth rate and its maturity of network
Ratio, be written as formula (1-3)：
In formula,
A represents number of going on a journey per capita；
Ai (E (A)) represents the actual value of city accessibility growth rate；
AI (E (A)) represents the ripe value of city accessibility growth rate；
(1.4) traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity URTM (AA) is expressed as the traffic supply and demand regulating power and its ripe value of network
Ratio, be written as formula (1-4)：
In formula,
Z represents traffic supply and demand regulating power；
Aa (Z) represents the actual value of traffic supply and demand regulating power；
AA (Z) represents the ripe value of traffic supply and demand regulating power；
(1.5) urban mass transit network maturity URTM is the comprehensive embodiment of aforementioned four mature indicator, is expressed as four
The weighted sum of mature indicator, it is written as formula (1-5)：
In formula,
Represent the weight of Network scale mature indicator；
Represent the weight of service passenger flow coverage rate mature indicator；
Represent the weight of city accessibility growth rate mature indicator；
Represent the weight of traffic supply and demand regulating power mature indicator；
(2) urban mass transit network line length L computational methods are：
Travel demand analysis method is based on the track traffic equilibrium of supply and demand, between Urban Traffic and rail line load intensity
The method that relation derivation goes out urban mass transit network line length, computational methods are shown in formula (2-1)：
In formula,
L represents urban mass transit network line length (km)；
P represents that city total population unit is ten thousand people；
A represents number of going on a journey per capita；
θ represents orbit traffic transfer coefficient；
γ represents track traffic load intensity；
RbusRepresent that transit trip accounts for the ratio of resident trip total amount；
Rrail/busRepresent that track traffic trip accounts for the ratio of transit trip；
NS (L) represents the ripe value of Rail traffic network Network scale；
Trip origin and destination mean that resident directly can be arrived at by track traffic on track transport services network,
It services volume of the flow of passengers Q1Represented with formula (2-2)：
Trip origin and destination have one when on track transport services network, and resident changes to track traffic via other modes of transportation,
The service volume of the flow of passengers Q of Metro Network2Represented with formula (2-3)：
Q2=2 [l (G2)-l(n)-2v(n)]·[l(G2) -2] formula (2-3)
In formula,
L (n) represents rail line way；
V (n) represents orbit traffic transfer nodes；
Not when in Metro Network, resident could complete once by the transfer twice with other modes of transportation for origin and destination
Trip, the service volume of the flow of passengers Q of Metro Network3Represented with formula (2-4)：
Q3=[l (G2)-l(n)-2v(n)]·[2l(G2) -2l (n) -4v (n)+1] formula (2-4)
Therefore, total service volume of the flow of passengers Q of Metro NetworkpTo be write as formula (2-5)；
Qp=Q1+Q2+Q3Formula (2-5)
(3) passenger flow coverage rate is serviced, the computational methods of city accessibility growth rate are：
Service passenger flow coverage rate Fp, the mean μ and standard deviation sigma of the distribution of accessibility growth rate；The combination of different parameters value obtains not
Same result, numerical simulation is carried out using orthogonal experiment method, finds the characteristic distributions of city dweller's entirety Accessibility lifting；
The accessibility growth rate desired value E (A) that city dweller integrally goes on a journey is written as formula (3-1) using Bayesian formula, that is, is being available for
On the premise of selecting track traffic trip scheme, all trip accessibility lifting probability in the cards；Obviously, have available
The probability of track traffic trip scheme, and track traffic may service the coverage rate F of passenger flowp；
(4) evaluation method of traffic supply and demand regulating power is：
The quantized value of Traffic Systems supply and demand homeostasis state is the Traffic Systems supply and demand ratio under traffic tolerance, because
This, the thinking of Rail traffic network traffic supply and demand regulating power estimation is：Increasing demand bullet is lured by what Rail traffic network supplied
The supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity of property coefficient estimated trajectory transportation supplies, the Rail traffic network saturation being then calculated according to investigation
Degree, draws traffic supply and demand regulating power；Wherein,
Supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρωThe intensity of variation of supply and demand ratio and the ratio of Rail Transit System quantity delivered intensity of variation are defined as,
Represented with formula (4-1)：
In formula,Represent t phase Rail Transit System quantity delivereds；
wtRepresent t phase Traffic Systems supply and demand ratios；
Rail traffic network supply lures increasing Demand Elasticity Coefficient, referred to as lures increasing Demand Elasticity Coefficient, is in Rail traffic network
On the basis of quantity delivered variation prediction, the intensity of variation of increasing demand is lured by coefficient of elasticity predicted city traffic system, is referred to as letter
Title lures increasing Demand Elasticity Coefficient；
Lure increasing demand to account for the ratio ξ of Traffic Systems demand Rail traffic network and be expressed as formula (4-2)：
In formula, DyRepresent by Rail Transit System quantity delivered to be increased and caused lure increasing demand；
D represents Traffic Systems demand；
Rail traffic network supply increase ratio η is expressed as formula (4-3)：
Then lure and increase Demand Elasticity Coefficient ρyIt is defined as the ratio that Rail traffic network lures increasing demand to account for Traffic Systems demand
ξ and Rail traffic network supply increase ratio η ratio, i.e. formula (4-4)；
By Rail Transit System quantity delivered account for urban traffic network aggregate supply ratio be designated as Rail traffic network supply occupy
Rate ε, it is expressed as formula (4-5)：
As ε=1, the state that traffic above-ground is paralysed completely is represented, urban transportation is completely dependent on Rail traffic network；When ε=0
When, representing in city does not have state existing for Rail traffic network, and supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity now is entered for newly-built circuit
Row prediction；
(4-1) formula is derived, then supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρωFormula (4-6) can be used to express：
With Matlab Software on Drawing supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρωFour-dimensional image understand, ρ in theoryωSpan be ρω∈[-
1,1]；As ε >=ρyWhen, ρω∈[0,1]；As ε ＜ ρyWhen, ρω∈[-1,0)；ρωTake on the occasion of mean track traffic supply it is increased
Amplitude has exceeded its degree for luring increasing demand, and the increase of Traffic Systems supply and demand ratio, the construction of Rail traffic network is for city
City's traffic serves positive effect；Vice versa；
Seek ρωTo ρyPartial derivative be formula (4-7)：
4. urban mass transit network maturity according to claim 3 determines method, it is characterized in that：Described in step 3
Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic supply and demand regulating power this four indexs are determined respectively
Actual value with ripe the step of being worth, described Network scale, service passenger flow coverage rate, city accessibility growth rate and traffic
The ripe value of supply and demand regulating power is respectively,
The maturity state of urban mass transit network is：
(1) Network scale reaches perfect condition, and preferable Network scale is with the population in city, travel intensity, public transport
The changes of the factors such as policy positioning and dynamic change, embody the dynamic of Rail traffic network maturity；
(2) the service passenger flow coverage rate of ripe Rail traffic network should cover more than 56% passenger flow；
(3) ripe Rail traffic network should make city accessibility growth rate reach more than 60%；
(4) the traffic supply and demand regulating power of ripe Rail traffic network should more than 10%, i.e., because of rainy weather the reason for, ground
When face road passage capability declines, meet the needs of Urban Residential Trip.
5. the urban mass transit network maturity according to claim 1,2 or 4 determines method, it is characterized in that：Step 5
The weight of described each mature indicator is respectively to assign Network scale maturity, service passenger flow coverage rate maturity, city respectively
City's accessibility growth rate maturity and the weight of traffic supply and demand regulating power are 0.3,0.3,0.3 and 0.1.
6. urban mass transit network maturity according to claim 5 determines method, it is characterized in that：Described in step 6
The weight of each maturity that each maturity and step 4 that are calculated according to step 4 determine calculates urban rail transit net
The process of network maturity is, with reference to the computational methods and result of the ripe value of fixed mature indicator, urban rail transit net
The quantitative description model of network maturity is as follows,
(1) Network scale maturity is expressed as formula (1)：
In formula, l represents city rail traffic route length, unit km；
P represents that city total population unit is ten thousand people；
A represents number of going on a journey per capita；
θ represents orbit traffic transfer coefficient；
γ represents track traffic load intensity；
RbusRepresent that transit trip accounts for the ratio of resident trip total amount；
Rrail/busRepresent that track traffic trip accounts for the ratio of transit trip；
(2) process of calculating major trunk roads road network coverage rate and passenger flow service coverage rate is：Collect and handed over according to the present situation in each city
Logical figure, is abstracted major urban arterial highway road network and rail transit network, draws figure G1And its total length l (G1) and figure G2And its total length l
(G2), major trunk roads road network coverage rate F is calculatedr；Therewith, according to formulaObtain passenger flow service coverage rate
Fp, and then draw service passenger flow coverage rate maturity URTM (PC), that is, service passenger flow coverage rate maturity and be expressed as formula (2)：
QFRepresent total service volume of the flow of passengers of track traffic service network；
QallRepresent the total volume of the flow of passengers of major trunk roads road network；
(3) calculating the process of city accessibility growth rate is：Increase the single trip of the presence or absence of each city track traffic participation
Sample is expanded, and is fitted normal distribution distribution probability function, obtains the single Accessibility growth rate probability more than zero point
ClothWith reference to the F drawnp, calculate corresponding city accessibility growth rate E (A)；And then draw city accessibility
Growth rate maturity URTM (AI), i.e., the network maturity based on city accessibility growth rate are expressed as formula (3)：
FpRepresent service passenger flow coverage rate；
(4) process of calculating traffic supply and demand regulating power is：The quantity delivered of present situation Rail traffic network is estimated first；Secondly, look for
The critical event of errant traffic operation, go out in the extracting data that statistical yearbook, government provide because of city caused by critical event
City's traffic system lures increasing demand, it is contemplated that the amplitude of variation of car and trip of taxi is smaller, with bus and track
Change between traffic passenger amount represents to lure increasing demand；Again, with reference to Rail traffic network quantity delivered before and after critical event
Change, draw to lure and increase Demand Elasticity Coefficient ρy；Then, urban highway traffic capacity is estimated, can be derived that urban transportation always supplies
To amount, with formulaDraw supply and demand ratio coefficient of elasticity ρw；Finally, Rail traffic network is calculated in investigation
Saturation degree λ, draw traffic supply and demand regulating power Z；And then traffic supply and demand regulating power maturity (URTM (AA)), i.e., based on traffic
The network maturity of supply and demand regulating power is expressed as formula (4)：
In formula, the track traffic daily demand volume of the flow of passengers can be provided the percentage of maximum quantity delivered with Rail traffic network, be referred to as
Rail traffic network saturation degree λ,
DrailRepresent Rail traffic network demand；
Represent the maximum quantity delivered that Rail traffic network can provide；
Represent t phase Rail Transit System quantity delivereds；
wtRepresent t phase Traffic Systems supply and demand ratios；
(5) urban mass transit network maturity is expressed as formula (5)：
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| CN108830399A (en) * | 2018-04-09 | 2018-11-16 | 中设设计集团股份有限公司 | What a kind of rail traffic website plugged into the facility equilibrium of supply and demand optimizes and revises method |
| CN108830399B (en) * | 2018-04-09 | 2022-03-29 | 华设设计集团股份有限公司 | Optimization and adjustment method for supply and demand balance of rail transit station connection facility |
| CN109214577A (en) * | 2018-09-18 | 2019-01-15 | 交通运输部科学研究院 | A kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique |
| CN112396289A (en) * | 2020-10-12 | 2021-02-23 | 中国兵器科学研究院 | Equipment system logistics support capability assessment method, device, equipment and medium |
| CN112309119A (en) * | 2020-11-03 | 2021-02-02 | 广州市交通规划研究院 | Urban traffic system capacity analysis optimization method |
| CN113516281A (en) * | 2021-04-30 | 2021-10-19 | 中国城市规划设计研究院 | Urban rail coverage ratio determining method and system |
| CN113516281B (en) * | 2021-04-30 | 2023-07-04 | 中国城市规划设计研究院 | Urban rail coverage proportion determining method and system |
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