CN109214577A - A kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to percentage of passenger transport electric powder predictions, especially a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique, for while promoting comprehensive system of transport construction, the prediction technique of foundation can be provided for the Reasonable Development Scale of several modes by needing to establish one kind, now propose following scheme comprising influence factor, the foundation of various bridging mode traffic share rate prediction models and realization and model application.The present invention can accurately predict composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport, while the intensivization development that infrastructure can be improved is horizontal, limited financial resource and material resource can be applied in the project for best embodying composite communications transport advantage.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to percentage of passenger transport electric powder prediction more particularly to a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport are pre-
Survey method.
Background technique
With the development of economy with the raising of living standards of the people, passenger traffic task is gradually increased, and passenger traffic ratio obviously rises.
Under the big frame of the comprehensive system of transport, in conjunction with the trend of passenger traffic fast development, overall demand of passenger transport, reasonable disposition how are grasped
Various traffic resources optimize passenger traffic structure, make that passenger transport is efficient, smooth operation, for play composite communications transport advantage,
It improves people's living standard, the national economic development is pushed to be of crucial importance.
While promoting comprehensive system of transport construction, needing to establish a kind of to be the Rational Development of several modes
Scale provides the prediction technique of foundation, for this purpose, proposing a kind of transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique.
Summary of the invention
A kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique proposed by the present invention, to solve to mention in above-mentioned background technique
Out the problem of.
To achieve the goals above, present invention employs following technical solutions:
A kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique, the method includes influence factors, various bridging modes
The foundation and realization and model application of traffic share rate prediction model.
Preferably, the influence factor includes intrinsic factor and design factor.
Preferably, the intrinsic factor includes the distance between city, the characteristic in city itself, the easiness of connection
With accessibility, the traffic condition of the connection all kinds of means of transportation in city and all kinds of means of transportation own characteristics.
Preferably, the design factor include the position of passenger station, running time, various forms of transport running time
Difference, expense and headway.
Preferably, the foundation with realization of the various bridging mode traffic share rate prediction models include Logit model
Basic conception and hypothesis, the foundation of the theoretical basis of utility function, Logit model.
1, influence factor
The volume share rate for predicting composite transport channel passenger traffic mode first has to the transport channel for clearly influencing share rate
Each factor, this method are classified as two classes, are analyzed according to respective classification.First to composite transport channel it is intrinsic because
Element is analyzed, and the intensity that intrinsic factor influences share rate is held.Then the design factor of composite transport channel is carried out
Analysis is concluded quantitative information, is analyzed using the method for regression analysis and the method for grey correlation analysis design factor,
So as to more precisely hold its internal factor.Finally, for various influence factors carry out overall merit, determine influence because
The different degree of element, the prediction for the share rate of the passenger traffic mode of composite transport channel provide effective theoretical foundation.
(1) share rate influence factor
In the analysis of composite transport channel passenger-traffic system, its influence factor is divided into two classes, i.e., intrinsic factor and design
Factor.Wherein intrinsic factor refer in the characteristic and channel in the city of channel linking those of Transportation modes it is permanent or
It is difficult the characteristic of variation in a short time, mainly includes the distance between channel connection city, the characteristic in city, various forms of transport line
The easiness and accessibility of road connection, connect the traffic condition of all kinds of means of transportation in city, all kinds of means of transportation own characteristics etc..
Design factor refers to can carry out artificially those of control characteristic to a certain extent, mainly including various mode of transportation stations
Position, running time, the running time difference of all kinds of linking means of transportation, expense, interval time and speed, such as table 1-1 institute
Show.
The influence factor of table 1-1 various forms of transport traffic share rate
(2) detailed analysis of intrinsic factor
1) the distance between city
Various forms of transport have the advantage linking distance of itself may if the distance between Liancheng city is relatively close
Improve the share rate of non-commerial vehicle and highway passenger transportation.However, larger distance does not ensure that railway transportation is just bound to take
It must succeed, if the railway transportation connection between city is not but highly desirable, also result in rail transportation system with relatively low
Share rate.If the station that railway transport of passengers or highway passenger transportation are stopped is more, hourage can be greatly increased in this way, to reduce it
Share rate.If the station stopped along the line is considerably less, or even almost without stop, then will give along passenger bring greatly
Inconvenience, dissatisfactory connection can be caused to route, to can similarly reduce its share rate.
2) characteristic in city itself
Various traveler self-characteristic factors will affect traveler and select means of transportation in which kind of channel.Since channel is held in the mouth
The self-characteristic for connecing city, certain characteristic factor that may cause traveler in city have apparent skewed popularity, so that
When means of transportation in selector channel of traveler in the city, it may have apparent skewed popularity.For example, city is more sent out
It reaching, booming income population is more, the share rate of non-commercial vehicle may be greatly improved, on the other hand, student or low-income groups
More city may will increase the share rate of the lower means of transportation of expense.The industrial structure and industrial pattern in city are also to each
The share rate of kind mode of transportation has a certain impact, the more city of labor-intensive production, point of the lower mode of transportation of expense
Load rate is generally higher.
3) easiness and accessibility of connection
Highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers are in addition to remain preferable connection and accessibility to the section where hinge in urban district
In addition, effective service cannot be provided well in other areas, may result in the reduction of its share rate, non-operation vapour in this way
Vehicle just has apparent advantage in this regard.
Although there are very quick highway passenger transportation or railway transport of passengers in some cities, but be merely capable of providing and urban district
The service that a section is connected directly.Other than the section, if traveler reaches other purposes by both means of transportation
Ground must just be realized by the route of detour.And on the other hand, some cities pass through multi-drop highway passenger transportation line or railway passenger
Transport line is connected with each section in urban district, by widely connecting and directly servicing, makes highway passenger transportation line or railway transport of passengers
Line remains extraordinary connection, and provides many destinations.It can't deny, there is also some other influences here
Factor, but only because adverse effect present on connection, it is contemplated that its time for reaching final destination and choosing
Various inconvenience existing for highway passenger transportation or railway transport of passengers are selected, share rate can also have an impact.
4) traffic condition of all kinds of means of transportation in city is connected
If being connected highway passenger transportation between city or railway transport of passengers being modernization, the good comprehensive transportation system of design
A part may then greatly improve the share rate of both means of transportation.However, extensive highway passenger transportation or network of railway transport of passengers
Network is not the high guarantee of its share rate, is critical to see the trip of the whether truly advantageous traveler between city of its network.Its
Transport capacity, reliability and congestion status etc. can also have a direct impact its share rate.
5) all kinds of means of transportation own characteristics
Various forms of transport itself have the characteristics that respective, the features such as comfort, safety, economy of various modes
Difference inevitably results in the different selections of all kinds of traveler trip modes.As the passenger more than luggage selects non-commercial vehicle
Ratio opposite will increase；And often travel to and fro between the passenger between two cities, then consider that the factor of economic aspect is more, it can be compared with
More trip modes etc. using low cost.
(3) detailed analysis of design factor
1) it is connected the position at station in city
The share rate of the position and highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers that are connected station in city has certain relationship, holds in the mouth in city
Picking up station linking unsmooth will will lead to the reduction of the share rate of both means of transportation to a certain extent.
If traveler, which needs to take in round-trip plug into automobile or transfer arrival city, is connected station, will be to highway visitor
Fortune or railway transport of passengers mode are at two detrimental effects.First, it needs to carry out by round-trip automobile connection of plugging into additional etc.
To and traveling, will increase hourage in total.Second, linking station is connected unsmooth meeting so that passenger feels one kind in city
Psychological estrangement brings psychological pressure to passenger.Since the waiting time of transfer is uncertain, luggage when transfer is mobile
Very inconvenient, many inconvenience can be increased to passenger by carrying out transfer.
2) running time
Running time between the round-trip city of Transportation modes is the key factor for influencing traffic share rate.Various transporters
The running time of formula and share rate are macroscopically there is stronger correlations.Under normal conditions, if certain means of transportation
Hourage is more than certain boundary, then passenger is substantially difficult to multiply this kind of mode of transportation back and forth between the two cities.
3) regression analysis of various forms of transport running time difference
The difference of various forms of transport running time has very strong correlation for traffic share rate.If various transports
Relatively, then expense is lower or the higher means of transportation share rate of comfort level is with regard to relatively high for the running time of mode.However,
When the difference of time is more than certain value, the time, longer means of transportation share rate will show the trend being decreased obviously.
4) headway of highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers
If highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers keep higher service frequency that may be helped to the raising of its share rate
It helps.With the extension of service interval time, share rate is generally in existing downward trend.Appropriate interval time can be to passenger
Biggish attraction is generated, to generate positive effect to the promotion of highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers share rate.
2, the foundation and realization of various bridging mode traffic share rate prediction models
According to share rate analysis of Influential Factors it is found that for bridging mode traffic share rate predict, it is necessary to its shadow
The factor of sound is combined closely, and cannot only merely be considered from the capacity of road.
The prediction of traffic share rate to various bridging modes is carried out detailed analysis by this method, is carried out share rate and is predicted mould
The foundation of type.
Prediction for Traffic mode split rate is the core in transport need analysis work.This method will be to biography
The Logit model of system improves, the prediction model as various bridging mode traffic share rates.
(1) basic conception and hypothesis of Logit model
Traveler trip can be selected in numerous linking means of transportation, and what every kind of means of transportation all had makes us
Satisfied degree is known as " effectiveness ", and every kind of linking means of transportation has the utility function for being used to measure its superiority.
Based on above-mentioned concept, make following basic assumption, these hypothesis are to be based on the common psychological housing choice behavior of people
The basis of Logit model:
1) traveler always selects the maximum linking means of transportation of value of utility when being selected every time；
2) for it is each linking means of transportation value of utility, by traveler itself characteristic and means of transportation characteristic jointly Lai
It determines.
(2) theoretical basis of utility function
For the traveler of behaviour decision making, one it is can choose, selection branch be independent from each other in set,
It would generally select to think the maximum selection branch of effectiveness for oneself.Policymaker always selects that highest value of utility can be generated
Scheme.This hypothesis is referred to as maximization of utility behavioral hypothesis.That is, if enable Uin be traveler select branch i when
Effectiveness, Cn are selection branch set corresponding with traveler, then work as Uin > Ujn,When establishment, traveler will be selected
Select branch.
However, value of utility, which can not be observed directly, to be come, or even is also difficult to pre-estimate, here in practical problem
Effectiveness Uin be typically considered random.Its main cause is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1) in effectiveness often with there is the attribute for being difficult to observe；
2) the personal preference of traveler affects the determination of attribute；
3) there is certain errors when observational variable；
4) it often needs to describe effectiveness using replacement variable in observation process.
For these reasons, it has to consider its random component when considering value of utility, so value of utility should be regarded as
Stochastic variable.
Equipped with N kind selection branch collection be combined into AN, enable i-th kind to select the effectiveness of branch for Ui, then utility vector U=(U1,
U2 ..., UN), for some trip decision-making person, the effectiveness of certain selection branch can be expressed as selection branch characteristic and traveler
The function of personal social economy's characterisitic parameter.It enables α be one and contains the vector of these characteristic parameters, then Ui=Ui (α).It examines
Consider randomness, utility function is defined as a stochastic variable, it is by deterministic system entries and additional random entry error
Composition, it may be assumed that
Ui (α)=Vi (α)+ε i (α) (1)
Vi (α) in formula --- deterministic system entries；
ε i (α) --- random entry error.
Due to E [ε i (α)]=0, can be obtained:
E [Ui (α)]=Vi (α) (2)
In general, Ui (α) is also known as " feel effectiveness " or " understanding effectiveness ", i.e., its person that is trip decision-making is to i-th kind of selection branch
Value of utility that is feeling or understanding or recognizing.Vi (α) is also known as " measurement effectiveness ", it is systems analyst
The value of utility for selecting branch to measure to i-th kind, also known as system utility value.
Pi is enabled to indicate that i-th kind of selected probability of selection branch is then selected since the distribution of effectiveness is the function of feature vector α
It is also related with α to select probability P i.In fact, i-th kind of selected probability of selection branch is that its value of utility is imitated higher than other selection branches
With the probability of value.Have:
If the distribution of known error item, so that it may which the determination of effectiveness Distribution value, then the probability that respectively selection branch is selected can
To be obtained by calculating.
(3) foundation of Logit model
It is assumed that altogether there are two branch 1 and 2 is selected, then according to formula 3, the probability of traveler selection 1 can be obtained are as follows:
Wherein: f12(y, z) is the joint probability density function of ε 1 and ε 2.
If it is assumed that ε 1 and ε 2 is mutually indepedent and probability distribution having the same, density function f, then its joint point
Cloth probability density function are as follows:
f12(y, z)=f (y) f (z) (5)
Formula 5 is substituted into formula 4, can be obtained:
Further, it is assumed that ε 1 and ε 2 is mutually indepedent and all obeys double exponential distribution (Gumbel distribution), probability point
Cloth function and probability density function are respectively as follows:
F (y)=exp [- exp (- by)], f (y)=bF (y) exp (- by) (7)
Formula 7 is substituted into formula 6, is obtained:
It enables: ω=F (y) F (y+V1-V2), then
ω=exp [- exp (by) (1+exp (bV2-bV1))]；
Due to as y=∞, ω=exp (0)=1；As y=- ∞, ω=exp (- ∞)=0.Therefore have:
The above are the derivation processes of binary Logit model.
Similarly, in the case where there are multiple selection branches, someone selects the probability of selection branch i to be known as multinomial Logit mould
Type can similarly obtain multinomial Logit mode are as follows:
To the probability P i in calculation formula 10, it is important to find out value of utility Vi therein.The characteristics of according to value of utility,
It can generally be expressed with a linear representation.Herein, when value of utility Vi is taken as the distance between city, travelling
Between, the linear functions of cost of trip, touring safety, convenience, comfort this 6 kinds of factors:
Vi=θ1Xi1+θ2Xi2+...+θkXik (11)
Wherein: Xi is the influence factor of Traffic mode split rate；θ is the parameter vector of influence factor.Formula 11 is substituted into
Into formula 10, obtain:
In formula 12, a total of (K+1) a parameter needs to demarcate, it may be assumed that b, θ 1, θ 2 ..., θ k.B is taken into summation symbol
In number, and (b θ k) is regarded into as an entirety, is still indicated with θ k.At this moment, it is equivalent to and regards b as 1, therefore just only K ginseng
Number needs to demarcate.Model conversation are as follows:
Formula 13 is namely based on traveler personal characteristics and selects the multinomial Logit mode of characteristic, i.e. MNL model.
3, model application guide
In Logit model, the determination of value of utility is mainly reflected in the calibration of parameter, and the calibration of parameter is primarily referred to as mould
The determination of characteristic index weight in type.Common parameter calibration method is Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method, but this method is for working as
The dependence of preceding value is very strong, biggish error is inherently generated with the parameter that current value is estimated come the probability for predicting future, to ginseng
The accuracy of number estimation has a certain impact.For this purpose, can determine parameter i.e. level using a kind of empirical investigation opinion method
Analytic approach and possibility-satisfactory method.This method determines the weight of characteristic index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), so to value of utility into
Row solves.
Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the parameter value of various joining traffic modes is calculated, the parameter value obtained, is substituted into public
Formula 11 obtains various value of utilities, further according to formula 13, the traffic share rate of you can get it various bridging modes.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:
The present invention can accurately predict composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport, while infrastructure can be improved
Intensivization development it is horizontal, limited financial resource and material resource can be applied in the project for best embodying composite communications transport advantage.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of functional block diagram of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique proposed by the present invention；
Fig. 2 is a kind of structural frames of the influence factor of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique proposed by the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 3 is a kind of various bridging mode traffic of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique proposed by the present invention
The foundation of share rate prediction model and the structural block diagram realized.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.
Referring to Fig.1-3, a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique, including influence factor, various linking sides
The foundation of formula traffic share rate prediction model and realize and model application, the influence factor include intrinsic factor and design because
Element, the intrinsic factor include the distance between city, the characteristic in city itself, the easiness of connection and accessibility, connect
The traffic condition and all kinds of means of transportation own characteristics, the design factor for connecing all kinds of means of transportation in city include passenger station
Position, running time, various forms of transport running time difference, expense and headway, the various bridging modes
The foundation of traffic share rate prediction model includes the basic conception of Logit model and the theoretical base of hypothesis, utility function with realization
The foundation of plinth, Logit model, the present invention can accurately predict composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport, while can
The intensivization development for improving infrastructure is horizontal, limited financial resource and material resource can be applied and best embody composite communications transport
In the project of advantage,
1, influence factor
The volume share rate for predicting composite transport channel passenger traffic mode first has to the transport channel for clearly influencing share rate
Each factor, this method are classified as two classes, are analyzed according to respective classification.First to composite transport channel it is intrinsic because
Element is analyzed, and the intensity that intrinsic factor influences share rate is held.Then the design factor of composite transport channel is carried out
Analysis is concluded quantitative information, is analyzed using the method for regression analysis and the method for grey correlation analysis design factor,
So as to more precisely hold its internal factor.Finally, for various influence factors carry out overall merit, determine influence because
The different degree of element, the prediction for the share rate of the passenger traffic mode of composite transport channel provide effective theoretical foundation.
(1) share rate influence factor
In the analysis of composite transport channel passenger-traffic system, its influence factor is divided into two classes, i.e., intrinsic factor and design
Factor.Wherein intrinsic factor refer in the characteristic and channel in the city of channel linking those of Transportation modes it is permanent or
It is difficult the characteristic of variation in a short time, mainly includes the distance between channel connection city, the characteristic in city, various forms of transport line
The easiness and accessibility of road connection, connect the traffic condition of all kinds of means of transportation in city, all kinds of means of transportation own characteristics etc..
Design factor refers to can carry out artificially those of control characteristic to a certain extent, mainly including various mode of transportation stations
Position, running time, the running time difference of all kinds of linking means of transportation, expense, interval time and speed, such as table 1-1 institute
Show.
The influence factor of table 1-1 various forms of transport traffic share rate
(2) detailed analysis of intrinsic factor
1) the distance between city
Various forms of transport have the advantage linking distance of itself may if the distance between Liancheng city is relatively close
Improve the share rate of non-commerial vehicle and highway passenger transportation.However, larger distance does not ensure that railway transportation is just bound to take
It must succeed, if the railway transportation connection between city is not but highly desirable, also result in rail transportation system with relatively low
Share rate.If the station that railway transport of passengers or highway passenger transportation are stopped is more, hourage can be greatly increased in this way, to reduce it
Share rate.If the station stopped along the line is considerably less, or even almost without stop, then will give along passenger bring greatly
Inconvenience, dissatisfactory connection can be caused to route, to can similarly reduce its share rate.
2) characteristic in city itself
Various traveler self-characteristic factors will affect traveler and select means of transportation in which kind of channel.Since channel is held in the mouth
The self-characteristic for connecing city, certain characteristic factor that may cause traveler in city have apparent skewed popularity, so that
When means of transportation in selector channel of traveler in the city, it may have apparent skewed popularity.For example, city is more sent out
It reaching, booming income population is more, the share rate of non-commercial vehicle may be greatly improved, on the other hand, student or low-income groups
More city may will increase the share rate of the lower means of transportation of expense.The industrial structure and industrial pattern in city are also to each
The share rate of kind mode of transportation has a certain impact, the more city of labor-intensive production, point of the lower mode of transportation of expense
Load rate is generally higher.
3) easiness and accessibility of connection
Highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers are in addition to remain preferable connection and accessibility to the section where hinge in urban district
In addition, effective service cannot be provided well in other areas, may result in the reduction of its share rate, non-operation vapour in this way
Vehicle just has apparent advantage in this regard.
Although there are very quick highway passenger transportation or railway transport of passengers in some cities, but be merely capable of providing and urban district
The service that a section is connected directly.Other than the section, if traveler reaches other purposes by both means of transportation
Ground must just be realized by the route of detour.And on the other hand, some cities pass through multi-drop highway passenger transportation line or railway passenger
Transport line is connected with each section in urban district, by widely connecting and directly servicing, makes highway passenger transportation line or railway transport of passengers
Line remains extraordinary connection, and provides many destinations.It can't deny, there is also some other influences here
Factor, but only because adverse effect present on connection, it is contemplated that its time for reaching final destination and choosing
Various inconvenience existing for highway passenger transportation or railway transport of passengers are selected, share rate can also have an impact.
4) traffic condition of all kinds of means of transportation in city is connected
If being connected highway passenger transportation between city or railway transport of passengers being modernization, the good comprehensive transportation system of design
A part may then greatly improve the share rate of both means of transportation.However, extensive highway passenger transportation or network of railway transport of passengers
Network is not the high guarantee of its share rate, is critical to see the trip of the whether truly advantageous traveler between city of its network.Its
Transport capacity, reliability and congestion status etc. can also have a direct impact its share rate.
5) all kinds of means of transportation own characteristics
Various forms of transport itself have the characteristics that respective, the features such as comfort, safety, economy of various modes
Difference inevitably results in the different selections of all kinds of traveler trip modes.As the passenger more than luggage selects non-commercial vehicle
Ratio opposite will increase；And often travel to and fro between the passenger between two cities, then consider that the factor of economic aspect is more, it can be compared with
More trip modes etc. using low cost.
(3) detailed analysis of design factor
1) it is connected the position at station in city
The share rate of the position and highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers that are connected station in city has certain relationship, holds in the mouth in city
Picking up station linking unsmooth will will lead to the reduction of the share rate of both means of transportation to a certain extent.
If traveler, which needs to take in round-trip plug into automobile or transfer arrival city, is connected station, will be to highway visitor
Fortune or railway transport of passengers mode are at two detrimental effects.First, it needs to carry out by round-trip automobile connection of plugging into additional etc.
To and traveling, will increase hourage in total.Second, linking station is connected unsmooth meeting so that passenger feels one kind in city
Psychological estrangement brings psychological pressure to passenger.Since the waiting time of transfer is uncertain, luggage when transfer is mobile
Very inconvenient, many inconvenience can be increased to passenger by carrying out transfer.
2) running time
Running time between the round-trip city of Transportation modes is the key factor for influencing traffic share rate.Various transporters
The running time of formula and share rate are macroscopically there is stronger correlations.Under normal conditions, if certain means of transportation
Hourage is more than certain boundary, then passenger is substantially difficult to multiply this kind of mode of transportation back and forth between the two cities.
3) regression analysis of various forms of transport running time difference
The difference of various forms of transport running time has very strong correlation for traffic share rate.If various transports
Relatively, then expense is lower or the higher means of transportation share rate of comfort level is with regard to relatively high for the running time of mode.However,
When the difference of time is more than certain value, the time, longer means of transportation share rate will show the trend being decreased obviously.
4) headway of highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers
If highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers keep higher service frequency that may be helped to the raising of its share rate
It helps.With the extension of service interval time, share rate is generally in existing downward trend.Appropriate interval time can be to passenger
Biggish attraction is generated, to generate positive effect to the promotion of highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers share rate.
2, the foundation and realization of various bridging mode traffic share rate prediction models
According to share rate analysis of Influential Factors it is found that for bridging mode traffic share rate predict, it is necessary to its shadow
The factor of sound is combined closely, and cannot only merely be considered from the capacity of road.
The prediction of traffic share rate to various bridging modes is carried out detailed analysis by this method, is carried out share rate and is predicted mould
The foundation of type.
Prediction for Traffic mode split rate is the core in transport need analysis work.This method will be to biography
The Logit model of system improves, the prediction model as various bridging mode traffic share rates.
(1) basic conception and hypothesis of Logit model
Traveler trip can be selected in numerous linking means of transportation, and what every kind of means of transportation all had makes us
Satisfied degree is known as " effectiveness ", and every kind of linking means of transportation has the utility function for being used to measure its superiority.
Based on above-mentioned concept, make following basic assumption, these hypothesis are to be based on the common psychological housing choice behavior of people
The basis of Logit model:
1) traveler always selects the maximum linking means of transportation of value of utility when being selected every time；
2) for it is each linking means of transportation value of utility, by traveler itself characteristic and means of transportation characteristic jointly Lai
It determines.
(2) theoretical basis of utility function
For the traveler of behaviour decision making, one it is can choose, selection branch be independent from each other in set,
It would generally select to think the maximum selection branch of effectiveness for oneself.Policymaker always selects that highest value of utility can be generated
Scheme.This hypothesis is referred to as maximization of utility behavioral hypothesis.That is, if enable Uin be traveler select branch i when
Effectiveness, Cn are selection branch set corresponding with traveler, then work as Uin > Ujn,When establishment, traveler will be selected
Select branch.
However, value of utility, which can not be observed directly, to be come, or even is also difficult to pre-estimate, here in practical problem
Effectiveness Uin be typically considered random.Its main cause is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1) in effectiveness often with there is the attribute for being difficult to observe；
2) the personal preference of traveler affects the determination of attribute；
3) there is certain errors when observational variable；
4) it often needs to describe effectiveness using replacement variable in observation process.
For these reasons, it has to consider its random component when considering value of utility, so value of utility should be regarded as
Stochastic variable.
Equipped with N kind selection branch collection be combined into AN, enable i-th kind to select the effectiveness of branch for Ui, then utility vector U=(U1,
U2 ..., UN), for some trip decision-making person, the effectiveness of certain selection branch can be expressed as selection branch characteristic and traveler
The function of personal social economy's characterisitic parameter.It enables α be one and contains the vector of these characteristic parameters, then Ui=Ui (α).It examines
Consider randomness, utility function is defined as a stochastic variable, it is by deterministic system entries and additional random entry error
Composition, it may be assumed that
Ui (α)=Vi (α)+ε i (α) (1)
Vi (α) in formula --- deterministic system entries；
ε i (α) --- random entry error.
Due to E [ε i (α)]=0, can be obtained:
E [Ui (α)]=Vi (α) (2)
In general, Ui (α) is also known as " feel effectiveness " or " understanding effectiveness ", i.e., its person that is trip decision-making is to i-th kind of selection branch
Value of utility that is feeling or understanding or recognizing.Vi (α) is also known as " measurement effectiveness ", it is systems analyst
The value of utility for selecting branch to measure to i-th kind, also known as system utility value.
Pi is enabled to indicate that i-th kind of selected probability of selection branch is then selected since the distribution of effectiveness is the function of feature vector α
It is also related with α to select probability P i.In fact, i-th kind of selected probability of selection branch is that its value of utility is imitated higher than other selection branches
With the probability of value.Have:
If the distribution of known error item, so that it may which the determination of effectiveness Distribution value, then the probability that respectively selection branch is selected can
To be obtained by calculating.
(3) foundation of Logit model
It is assumed that altogether there are two branch 1 and 2 is selected, then according to formula 3, the probability of traveler selection 1 can be obtained are as follows:
Wherein: f12(y, z) is the joint probability density function of ε 1 and ε 2.
If it is assumed that ε 1 and ε 2 is mutually indepedent and probability distribution having the same, density function f, then its joint point
Cloth probability density function are as follows:
f12(y, z)=f (y) f (z) (5)
Formula 5 is substituted into formula 4, can be obtained:
Further, it is assumed that ε 1 and ε 2 is mutually indepedent and all obeys double exponential distribution (Gumbel distribution), probability point
Cloth function and probability density function are respectively as follows:
F (y)=exp [- exp (- by)], f (y)=bF (y) exp (- by) (7)
Formula 7 is substituted into formula 6, is obtained:
It enables: ω=F (y) F (y+V1-V2), then
ω=exp [- exp (by) (1+exp (bV2-bV1))]；
Due to as y=∞, ω=exp (0)=1；As y=- ∞, ω=exp (- ∞)=0.Therefore have:
The above are the derivation processes of binary Logit model.
Similarly, in the case where there are multiple selection branches, someone selects the probability of selection branch i to be known as multinomial Logit mould
Type can similarly obtain multinomial Logit mode are as follows:
To the probability P i in calculation formula 10, it is important to find out value of utility Vi therein.The characteristics of according to value of utility,
It can generally be expressed with a linear representation.Herein, when value of utility Vi is taken as the distance between city, travelling
Between, the linear functions of cost of trip, touring safety, convenience, comfort this 6 kinds of factors:
Vi=θ1Xi1+θ2Xi2+...+θkXik (11)
Wherein: Xi is the influence factor of Traffic mode split rate；θ is the parameter vector of influence factor.Formula 11 is substituted into
Into formula 10, obtain:
In formula 12, a total of (K+1) a parameter needs to demarcate, it may be assumed that b, θ 1, θ 2 ..., θ k.B is taken into summation symbol
In number, and (b θ k) is regarded into as an entirety, is still indicated with θ k.At this moment, it is equivalent to and regards b as 1, therefore just only K ginseng
Number needs to demarcate.Model conversation are as follows:
Formula 13 is namely based on traveler personal characteristics and selects the multinomial Logit mode of characteristic, i.e. MNL model.
3, model application guide
In Logit model, the determination of value of utility is mainly reflected in the calibration of parameter, and the calibration of parameter is primarily referred to as mould
The determination of characteristic index weight in type.Common parameter calibration method is Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method, but this method is for working as
The dependence of preceding value is very strong, biggish error is inherently generated with the parameter that current value is estimated come the probability for predicting future, to ginseng
The accuracy of number estimation has a certain impact.For this purpose, can determine parameter i.e. level using a kind of empirical investigation opinion method
Analytic approach and possibility-satisfactory method.This method determines the weight of characteristic index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), so to value of utility into
Row solves.
Embodiment:
A (B, C) D passenger corridor passenger flow analysing
1 investigation and analysis
1.1 data survey
To study travelling behavioural characteristic, passenger desire selection factor is analyzed, car terminal, southern line visitor in the city D
The Resident Trip Characteristics questionnaire survey of the city D is unfolded in fortune station and the city D Railways Stations.Investigation provides 13000 parts of questionnaire altogether, and investigation is effective
11863 parts of questionnaire.Wherein 5000 parts of the city D car terminal granting, 4633 parts of effective questionnaire, sampling rate 28.9%；Southern line passenger station
5000 parts of granting, 4511 parts of effective questionnaire, sampling rate 30.1%；The city D railway station provides 3000 parts, and 2719 parts of effective questionnaire is taken out
Sample rate 54.4%.
The analysis of 1.2 data
(1) traveler economic society feature
1) traveler vocational distribution
Overall traveler and adopting is gone on a journey in various manners in channel, and traveler vocational distribution is as shown in table 2-1: where
The distribution for taking the traveler and overall traveler of highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers trip has apparent consistency, and distribution is more
Average, the maximum three classes passenger of proportion is successively manufacturing industry, educational business and service trade.And non-commerial vehicle is used to go on a journey
Passenger be successively then government department, educational business, financial circles and IT industry.As can be seen that seating highway passenger transportation and railway passenger transport
That pedestrian's number accounts for larger proportion is worker's (manufacturing industry, service trade) and student's (educational business) respectively；Take non-commerial vehicle trip
Mainly row pipe personnel, enterprise management personnel, scientific and technical personnel etc..
Passenger's vocational distribution (unit: %) in the channel table 2-1
2) traveler takes in situation
Economic level usually decides the purchasing power and consumption wish of people, in the selection of means of transportation, income
Situation equally occupies important weight.The difference that means of transportation is selected by analyzing each income level passenger, facilitates comprehensively
Understand passenger trip mode selection mechanism, and then establishes travelling generalized cost model.
Passenger takes in situation distribution as shown in table 2-2 in channel, there it can be seen that passenger's income is concentrated mainly on and is lower than
On 1000 yuan/month and 1000-2000 member/moon middle and low income level.Its income of the passenger of seating highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers
Distribution and overall passenger's income dis tribution are more consistent, are concentrated mainly on middle and low income level.Use non-commerial vehicle trip passenger
Mainly middle booming income crowd, and crowd's proportion is much larger than shared by overall passenger and other two kinds of means of transportation passengers
Ratio.
Table 2-2 passenger's monthly income distribution situation (unit: %)
3) traveler trip purpose
Traveler trip purpose is as shown in table 2-3 in channel, there it can be seen that be on home leave in the totality traveler of channel,
Tourism and public affair trip account for larger proportion.Specific to various transporters
Formula in the traveler for taking highway passenger transportation and railway transport of passengers, worker and is on home leave out, travels more, account for about
According to the 80% of traveler sum；The traveler gone on a journey using non-commerial vehicle is mainly with the trip of public affair/commercial affairs to go sightseeing
It is main.
Table 2-3 travelling purpose (unit: %)
(2) Transportation modes trip characteristics
1) highway passenger transportation
Found out according to the data of statistical analysis, is being selected in crowd of the highway passenger transportation as traffic trip means, it is convenient
Property influence to them it is maximum, wherein the direction A accounted for the direction 66.67%, C accounted for accounting for for the direction 65.22%, B
66.67%；In the direction C, the selection of hourage factor has accounted for the 1/3 of number of TB suspects examin ed；It is compared with other modes of transportation, A, the side B
To comfort it is very poor, C is slightly good；In terms of safety, tri- D-factors of DBC influence ratio and are substantially the same.
Each influence factor selection ratio of table 2-4 highway passenger transportation trip
| Hourage | Cost of trip | Convenience | Safety | Comfort | |
| A | 17.95% | 12.86% | 66.67% | 12.82% | 5.13% |
| C | 30.43% | 4.35% | 65.22% | 13.04% | 17.39% |
| B | 17.95% | 0.43% | 66.67% | 17.52% | 5.13% |
2) railway transport of passengers
Each influence factor proportion general uniform of three direction selection railways transport of passengers trip.It is in the safety of the direction C
Resident selects the biggest impact factor of railway transport of passengers trip, has accounted for the 49.37% of survey group, and hourage is institute's accounting
The smallest factor of example, only 2.36%, followed by comfort factor, 10.25%；Each influence factor in the direction A and B selects traveler
Selecting influences substantially caused by railway transport of passengers in the balance of power.
Each influence factor selection ratio of table 2-5 railway transport of passengers trip
| Hourage | Cost of trip | Convenience | Safety | Comfort | |
| A | 23.68% | 36.84% | 18.42% | 26.32% | 10.53% |
| B | 25.60% | 23.84% | 22.21% | 28.89% | 16.74% |
| C | 2.36% | 22.68% | 38.44% | 49.37% | 10.25% |
3) non-commercial vehicle
Found out according to the data of statistical analysis, is being selected in crowd of the non-commercial vehicle as traffic trip means, just
Influence of the victory to them is maximum, wherein the direction A accounted for the direction 56.54%, C accounted for accounting for for the direction 63.75%, B
To 58.74%；Secondly being affected for comfort, the selection of all directions comfort factor have accounted for the 1/3 of number of TB suspects examin ed；
In other respects, tri- D-factors influence ratios of DBC are substantially the same.
Each influence factor selection ratio of the non-commercial vehicle trip of table 2-6
| Hourage | Cost of trip | Convenience | Safety | Comfort | |
| A | 35.67% | 20.19% | 56.54% | 12.59% | 25.38% |
| B | 30.77% | 18.63% | 58.74% | 14.53% | 36.56% |
| C | 34.68% | 15.34% | 63.75% | 18.36% | 26.72% |
2A (B, C) D passenger corridor traffic forecast
The application of 2.1Logit model
Mode of transportation on A (B, C) D passenger corridor is highway passenger transportation, railway transport of passengers and non-commercial vehicle and the situation deposited.
Being open to the traffic for railway transport of passengers will inject new vitality for A (B, C) D passenger corridor, but its share rate can reach much on earth,
What kind of quantitative effect can be generated on earth to the alleviation of the traffic connection pressure between Cluster of Pearl River Delta, increasingly
Cause the extensive concern of people.The Logit model established according to front is partitioned into A (B, C) D passenger corridor mode of transportation
Row analysis, further predicts the share rate of each mode of transportation of A (B, C) D passenger corridor.
According to analysis above, A (B, C) D passenger corridor traffic modal splitting the problem of on, between city away from
Refer to from, hourage, cost of trip, touring safety, convenience, this 6 kinds of factors of comfort as the evaluation between mode than choosing
Mark.Therefore, in the Logit model of A (B, C) D passenger corridor traffic share rate prediction, we are just using this 6 kinds of factors as mould
The characteristic index of utility function in type, and enable its satisfaction: X1 is the distance between city, X2 is hourage, X3 is travelling
Expense, X4 are touring safety, X5 is convenience, X6 is comfort.
(1) determination of Logit model parameter
The traffic share rate prediction technique of various forms of transport is essentially identical, we are directed to A (B, C) D passenger corridor here
Rail traffic share rate be predicted as the realization case of model.
According in the city D car terminal, southern line passenger station and the expansion city the D Resident Trip Characteristics questionnaire survey of the city D Railways Stations
Data analysis can obtain, select the different degree [50] of various forms of transport each index in A (B, C) D passenger corridor, press from height
Successively to low sequence are as follows: the distance between hourage (X2), cost of trip (X3), city (X1), touring safety (X4), just
Victory (X5), comfort (X6).According to the definition of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) scale, comparator matrix A is obtained are as follows:
Obtain comparator matrix A are as follows:
According to the computation model of Analytic hierarchy process, weight vectors W is obtained,
W=[0.15 0.44 0.22 0.10 0.05 0.03]T
Consistency check is carried out, the consistency of acquired results can receive, and the weight coefficient wi acquired can model the most
The weight of middle characteristic index carry out using.
Other various forms of transport establish comparator matrix according to its own feature respectively, obtain weight vectors, are respectively as follows:
For taking the traveler of highway passenger transportation, weight vectors are as follows:
W=[0.08 0.25 0.46 0.14 0.04 0.02]T
For taking the traveler of non-commercial vehicle, weight vectors are as follows:
W=[0.04 0.25 0.02 0.14 0.46 0.08]T
(2) determination of Logit model characteristics index value
According to the survey data analysis that the city D railway station, passenger station and departure hall are carried out, to A (B, C) D passenger traffic
The factor of evaluation of mode of transportation is analyzed in channel, determines that the characteristic of various modes of transportation in Logit model refers to this
Scale value.
For mode of transportation different in A (B, C) D passenger corridor, there is certain between characteristic index value
Difference, but the size of its value can be embodied as opposite numerical relation.
By taking AD passenger corridor as an example, specific value is as shown in table 2-7.
For hourage, highway passenger transportation travelling average time is longer relative to non-commercial vehicle travelling average time, and
The journey time of railway transport of passengers is most short.The hourage characteristic value for enabling highway passenger transportation as a result, is 1, due to hourage and effectiveness
The relationship that value is negatively correlated, then the hourage characteristic value of non-commercial vehicle is 2, and the hourage characteristic value of railway transport of passengers is
3。
For cost of trip, can be obtained in the travel cost factual survey to passenger, non-commercial vehicle expense highest, railway
Passenger traffic is secondly, highway passenger transportation is spent at least.The cost of trip characteristic value for enabling non-commercial vehicle is 1, due to cost of trip and effectiveness
The relationship that value is equally negatively correlated, then the cost of trip characteristic value of railway transport of passengers is 2, and the cost of trip characteristic value of highway passenger transportation
It is 3.
For the characteristic value of the distance between city, safety, convenience and comfort, asked according to all kinds of passengers
The data analysis of volume investigation, obtains the evaluation of estimate of various modes of transportation.
The characteristic index value of mode of transportation is as shown in table 2-8 and table 2-9 in BD, CD passenger corridor.
The characteristic index value of mode of transportation in table 2-7 AD passenger corridor
The characteristic index value of mode of transportation in table 2-8 BD passenger corridor
The characteristic index value of mode of transportation in table 2-9 CD passenger corridor
(3) the traffic share rate prediction result of mode of transportation passes through to various in Logit model in A (B, C) D passenger corridor
The determination of mode of transportation characteristic index and its parameter, according to formula 11, to by taking AD passenger corridor as an example, to various forms of transport
Value of utility is calculated, and is obtained:
Highway passenger transportation=0.08 V × 1+0.25 × 1+0.46 × 3+0.14 × 1+0.04 × 0.02 × 1=1.95 of 2+；
Non- commercial vehicle=0.04 V × 2+0.25 × 2+0.02 × 1+0.14 × 3+0.46 × 0.08 × 3=2.64 of 3+；
Railway transport of passengers=0.15 V × 3+0.44 × 3+0.22 × 2+0.10 × 2+0.05 × 0.03 × 1=2.49 of 1+.
By the value of utility of various modes of transportation as a result, according to formula 13, each mode of transportation in AD Passenger Transportation Corridor is divided
Analysis, obtains the traffic share rate result of means of transportation in AD passenger corridor, it may be assumed that
The various forms of transport share rate in BD, CD passenger corridor is calculated in the same way, each item visitor can be obtained
The share rate of various forms of transport is as shown in table 2-10 in wan access.
The share rate of various modes of transportation in table 2-10 A (B, C) D passenger corridor
| Highway passenger transportation | Non- commercial vehicle | Railway transport of passengers | |
| AD | 21.23% | 42.33% | 36.44% |
| BD | 10.63% | 46.25% | 43.12% |
| CD | 21.99% | 56.87% | 21.13% |
2.2 various forms of transport are to passenger corridor traffic diverging situation analysis
According to traffic generation forecast, four stage prediction method of trip distribution modeling, traffic modal splitting and traffic assignation, A (B,
C) it is as follows to generate prediction result for the area the D passenger traffic volume:
2015 yearly passenger carrying capacities are 24.9 hundred million person/year；
The year two thousand twenty passenger traffic volume is 36.3 hundred million person/year；
The year two thousand thirty passenger traffic volume is 51.9 hundred million person/year；
Whole district's passenger traffic volume growth rate 4.8% to 2020 in 2015；
The year two thousand twenty is to the year two thousand thirty whole district's passenger traffic volume growth rate 3.6%.
Each passenger corridor whole society section passenger flow forecast is as shown in table 2-11.
Table 2-11 A (B, C) D passenger corridor section passenger traffic volume forecast table
It is predicted according to each passenger corridor various forms of transport volume share rate situation, by 2030, each passenger corridor
Various forms of transport share rate situation is as shown in such as table 2-12.
Each mode of transportation forecast of traffic volume table of table 2-12 A (B, C) D passenger corridor
Unit: ten thousand people
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto,
Anyone skilled in the art in the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, according to the technique and scheme of the present invention and its
Inventive concept is subject to equivalent substitution or change, should be covered by the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique, which is characterized in that the method includes influence factors, various
The foundation and realization and model application of bridging mode traffic share rate prediction model.
2. a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the shadow
The factor of sound includes intrinsic factor and design factor.
3. a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique according to claim 2, which is characterized in that described solid
Have factor include the distance between city, the characteristic in city itself, the easiness of connection and accessibility, connection city it is all kinds of
The traffic condition of means of transportation and all kinds of means of transportation own characteristics.
4. a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique according to claim 2, which is characterized in that described to set
When meter factor includes position, running time, the running time difference of various forms of transport, expense and the departure interval of passenger station
Between.
5. a kind of composite transport channel percentage of passenger transport prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described each
Basic conception and hypothesis, effectiveness letter of the foundation of kind bridging mode traffic share rate prediction model with realization including Logit model
The foundation of several theoretical basis, Logit model.
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