CN109657860A - Rail traffic network capacity determining methods based on rail traffic history operation data - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention proposes a kind of Rail traffic network capacity determining methods based on rail traffic history operation data, belong to traffic programme and data statistic analysis field.This method utilizes the history operation data in rail traffic prosperity city, data analysis is carried out from nothing to gradually perfect overall process to rail traffic scale, find stable therebetween and reasonable data relationship, actual conditions are run in conjunction with each urban track traffic, fit rail traffic random scale lower network calculation of capacity rule.Present invention firstly provides the detailed calculation methods of Urban Rail Transit capacity, and run real data according to rail traffic history and be fitted, and can carry out parameter selection according to country variant city actual conditions, have real reliability and social adaptiveness.Each Urban Rail Transit Development historical data effect has been played, provides condition for the Rail traffic network capacity research under different scales and mode.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Rail traffic network capacity calculation methods, and in particular to one kind is based on big city rail traffic history
Operation data is come the method that determines Rail traffic network capacity.
Background technique
With the quickening of urbanization process, urban development scale constantly expands, and the transportation network in city will also carry
More and more volumes of the flow of passengers.In order to cope with the passenger traffic requirement that the scale of construction constantly increases, traffic management department strengthens a variety of traffic sides
The collaboration of formula carries out bus traveler assignment according to the capacity of various modes of transportation, so that the distribution of flow meets the resource of configuration, to mention
High resource utilization.During the multiple transportation modes such as subway, public transport, Private Traffic in traffic programme cooperate with, city
During subway is planned and during resident trip model split, require to carry with the passenger traffic of each mode of transportation
Based on capacity, corresponding traffic assignation is carried out to urban passenger flow amount.It is unknown or inaccurate in Rail traffic network capacity
In the case of: the rail transit planning in city can not rationally judge to need the Network scale built, Regional Passenger supply and demand without
Method matching causes the waste (supply > demand) of resource or passenger traffic supersaturated (demand > supply)；City multi-mode passenger traffic mode
Synergistic mechanism also can not effectively be implemented, and passenger traffic distribution can not be matched with actual carrying capacity；Resident trip model split is inefficient and goes out
Row environmental degradation etc..So the calculating of Rail traffic network capacity is very important the stage for Urban Traffic Planning.But
There is no the circular of this capacity in current method, there is generally acknowledged bearing capacity only for single track traffic route
Range defines, and range is single numerical intervals (5~80,000 person-time/hour), can not area to the construction situation of different track circuits
Point, when single line rises to a plurality of route level of network, there is only rough reckoning foundations, obtain rough network capacity amount
Grade, the general product representation network capacity for using particular factor and operating mileage, and used particular factor standard is different, no sheet
The generally acknowledged reasonable coefficient in field, is unable to get the result for the precision that can be used for calculating or with actual reference.
Therefore, a kind of new method of accurate calculating capacity towards Rail traffic network is needed.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: for the deficiency of existing method, the present invention proposes a kind of based on rail traffic history operation data
Rail traffic network capacity determining methods.
Technical solution: to achieve the goals above, the rail traffic of the invention based on rail traffic history operation data
Network capacity determines method, comprising the following steps:
(1) big city Rail traffic network historical data and present situation operation information are obtained, and rejects invalid data；
(2) computation model based on operation data building rail traffic road network capacity；
(3) fitting data is corrected according to each Urban Operation status, obtains effective fitting data；
(4) Metro Network calculation of capacity mode, comparison selection optimal fitting form, by optimal are fitted based on independent variable
Fitting form obtains the passenger traffic capacity for the gauze that any item number track circuit is constituted.
Preferably, big city Rail traffic network historical data includes in the step (1): city, time, rail traffic
Operation item number, operating vehicles, route total kilometrage and the passenger traffic volume, the present situation operation information refer to that each route of urban track traffic makes
With vehicle model situation.
Preferably, software is crawled to each Urban Statistical office yearbook web page source over the years by network data in the step (1)
Data in code are crawled, and particular segment head and the tail have the code of distinction for label in intercepting page page source code, thus
Identical specific data needed for the different pages: city, time, rail transportation operation item number, vehicle in use is obtained during crawling
Number, route total kilometrage and the passenger traffic volume.
Preferably, the computation model of step (2) the middle orbit traffic road network capacity is with rail line travel permit number x and fortune
Battalion mileage y is independent variable, and it is dependent variable that vehicle number z is launched in gauze.
Preferably, the step (3) includes: to be made different vehicle model specification for normalization foundation with vehicle staffing
Obtain different model vehicle measurement standard having the same；Each urban track traffic historical data is repaired according to normalized number evidence
Just, effective fitting data is obtained.
Preferably, the step (4) includes: that curve is debugged in MATLAB using Response surface regression to historical data
Fitting series of functions, chooses and variance SSE, mean square deviation MSE, root mean square RMSE are minimum, fitting of the R-square closest to 1
Mode obtains fitting surface, and (x, y, z) group corresponding to each point is combined into urban rail transit construction mode on curved surface, obtains any item
The passenger traffic capacity for the gauze that number track circuit is constituted.
The utility model has the advantages that
1, the present invention provides the method that one kind can be precisely calculated Rail traffic network capacity, this method utilizes track
The more developed city rail of traffic hands over history operation data, excavates the pass of objective reality between vehicle number and subway line, mileage
System and rule, since all reference datas are all from the operating condition of physical presence in each urban history, so there is no combinations
The infeasibility of mode, combined situation may be adapted in the rail transit planning in other cities and adjustment apply.
2, The present invention gives the gauze of the Rail traffic network under each route and different length operating mileage state appearances
The method of determination to be measured, overcomes in existing method the shortcomings that only single line calculates, calculated result has degree of precision and compared with strong adaptability,
Strong theoretical foundation is provided for urban planning and the construction of adjustment rail line and vehicle dispensing, while being city multimode
The research of formula passenger traffic mode synergistic mechanism provides the rail traffic passenger traffic commitment amount that can be used for calculating, and it is reasonable to provide passenger flow estimation
Prediction technique so that further work is more rationally efficiently.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of Rail traffic network capacity determining methods of the invention；
Fig. 2 is according to the embodiment of the present invention to historical data fitting surface figure.
Specific embodiment
Technical solution of the present invention is described further with reference to the accompanying drawing.
Method of the invention utilizes big city rail traffic history operation data, returns to Rail traffic network capacity
Analysis, and the fitting precision of homing method is continuously improved, obtain reasonable Rail traffic network capacity calculation methods.Referring to Fig.1,
Method includes the following steps:
(1) big city Rail traffic network historical data and present situation operation information are obtained, and rejects invalid data.
Wherein, Rail traffic network historical data in big city includes: city, time, rail transportation operation item number, operation vehicle
Number, route total kilometrage and the passenger traffic volume, present situation operation information refer to that each route of urban track traffic uses vehicle model；It is described invalid
Data refer to the rail transportation operation data obviously under improper operation state.
Step 1-1, data acquisition
By LocoySpider (network data crawls software) in domestic each Urban Statistical office yearbook webpage source code over the years
Data crawled, particular segment head and the tail have the code of distinction for label in intercepting page page source code, thus crawling
Identical specific data needed for the different pages: city, time, rail transportation operation item number, operating vehicles, line is obtained in the process
Road total kilometrage and the passenger traffic volume.
Step 1-2, invalid data is rejected
Observation crawl as a result, it has been found that, the initial stage that online data road changes, often exist launch vehicle number and not up to
The situation of network carrying peak value.Such as shown in following table, Chongqing can be sent out for 2006 with rail transportation operation data comparison in 2008
In the case that existing rail line travel permit number and operating mileage are constant, only 52 vehicles are launched within 2006, launch 60 within 2008
Amount, it can be determined that, vehicle number of the two compared to 2008 compared with 2006 closer to route saturation state, depending on 2006 annual datas without
Effect, is rejected.
(2) computation model based on operation data building rail traffic road network capacity.
Metro Network capacity indicates the maximum number that whole network can transport in the same time, i.e., is able to enter rail simultaneously
Road vehicular traffic inside and the number maximum value for reaching position transfer purpose.In rail traffic development process, belong to from control simultaneously
And the variable of rail traffic developing stage can be represented as the variation in terms of regulatable infrastructure, including rail traffic website
Quantity, the number of lines, rail transportation operation mileage, operating vehicles, gauze layout.By to the micro- of Metro Network capacity
Analysis is seen, rail vehicle transportation passenger's ability is essentially dependent in gauze while the vehicle maximum value of operation, because vehicle is fixed
Member is definite value, only related with vehicle model, so Metro Network capacity is essentially the most cart in network while run
The afforded passenger traffic volume of number full loads.It is calculated in different phase gauze accordingly, it is determined that rail traffic road network capacity is equal to
The vehicle number and vehicle staffing information of dispensing.
In terms of regulatable infrastructure, directly affecting Metro Network and launching the factor of vehicle number is rail traffic
The number of lines and rail transportation operation mileage, so choosing rail line travel permit number (x) with operating mileage (y) is independent variable,
It is dependent variable (z) that vehicle number is launched in gauze, constructs computation model z=f1(x,y).And as described above, determining vehicle model
In the case where, the staffing of vehicle is just it is known that rail traffic road network capacity then has the rail transit network appearance of a street just with vehicle number strong correlation
Measure c=f2(z)=f3(x,y)。
(3) fitting data is corrected according to each Urban Operation status, obtains effective fitting data.
Standardize each Urban Data, it is therefore an objective to by different vehicle model specification so that different model vehicle have it is identical
Measurement standard, fitting data amount is richer, and fitting result is more accurate.For example, the track that the country, China has come into operation is handed over
Logical vehicle model is divided into three classes:
| Type of vehicle | A type vehicle | Type B vehicle | C-type vehicle |
| Maximum allowable axle load (t) | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| Vehicle width (m) | 3.0-3.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Vehicle staffing (6 people that stand/m2) | 310 | 240 | 220 |
It is that Standard of vehicle standardizes to other vehicles that most commonly used Type B vehicle, which can be chosen, is rule with vehicle staffing
It formats foundation, each vehicle normalization criteria: the vehicle staffing quantity/standard vehicle staffing quantity.
Normalized result is as follows:
| Type of vehicle | A type vehicle | Type B vehicle | C-type vehicle |
| Normalization coefficient | 1.29 | 1.0 | 0.92 |
Be modified according to normalized number evidence to each urban track traffic historical data: each vehicle corresponds to vehicle number × specification
Change coefficient, to obtain effective fitting data.
(4) Metro Network calculation of capacity mode, comparison selection optimal fitting form are fitted based on independent variable.
Response surface regression is used to historical data, can be chosen by MATLAB software debugging curve fitting series of functions
With variance SSE (Sum of Squared Error), mean square deviation MSE (Mean Squared Error), root mean square RMSE (Root
Mean Square Error) it is minimum, R-square obtains fitting surface as shown in Figure 2, curved surface closest to 1 fit approach
(x, y, z) group corresponding to upper each point (wherein X, Z are integer) is combined into a kind of theoretical urban rail transit construction mode.It is transported in standard
Seek vehicle vehicle it is determining and unified under the premise of, each vehicle staffing be it is determining, therefore, and so on available any item
The passenger traffic capacity for the gauze that number track circuit is constituted.
This week passenger traffic volume can be predicted according to passenger traffic volume last week in rail transit planning and management practice, due to each
The number of lines and mileage in city are being determining when week, so that it may determine how many vehicle launched by the above method, then use
The passenger traffic volume of prediction can meet demand of passenger transport to detect the so more vehicles of dispensing, this method can control metro operation
Center proposes the method for launching vehicle, can relatively accurately be matched to volume of the flow of passengers demand, rather than lean on Experience.
(5) the Metro Network calculation of capacity mode after fitting is applied to different cities and creates or adjust rail traffic
In the process.
Defining using the minimum departure interval (30-45s) of subway be the vehicle input situation dispatched a car of frequency as saturation, is more than to be saturated
Then the control of Rail traffic network system is difficult to reach safe condition state, and lower than saturation state, there are relative saturation degree.It is applied to
When city is newly-built or adjusts rail traffic, network saturation degree is all made of average national level, i.e., returns to obtain by historical data
Average state, there is generality while meeting China's Domestic Environment.According to Rail traffic network capacity obtained above
Calculation can have following implementation method when carrying out urban planning or adjustment urban rail transit construction:
(51) if rail traffic scale is planned and adjusted according to the volume of the flow of passengers, standard needed for undertaking passenger flow is first determined
Vehicle number z is formed by main passenger flow corridor quantity according to city and determines the rail line travel permit number x needed, thus in song
The value that corresponding rail transportation operation mileage y is found on face, carries out the construction of subway network；
(52) if rail traffic scale is planned and adjusted according to the volume of the flow of passengers, standard needed for undertaking passenger flow is first determined
Vehicle number z determines urban rail transit construction scale, i.e. operating mileage y to urban rail transit construction amount of investment according to the city, thus
Corresponding rail line travel permit number x is found on curved surface, carries out the construction of subway network；
(53) if operation management is carried out according to existing rail line net state, according to the number of lines x and fortune of status
Mileage y is sought, is searched on curved surface and reaches vehicle number corresponding to network capacity, compares the practical passenger traffic volume and gauze Capacity Selection
Vehicle supply volume z.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of Rail traffic network capacity determining methods based on rail traffic history operation data, which is characterized in that the party
Method the following steps are included:
(1) big city Rail traffic network historical data and present situation operation information are obtained, and rejects invalid data；
(2) computation model based on operation data building rail traffic road network capacity；
(3) fitting data is corrected according to each Urban Operation status, obtains effective fitting data；
(4) Metro Network calculation of capacity mode, comparison selection optimal fitting form, by optimal fitting are fitted based on independent variable
Form obtains the passenger traffic capacity for the gauze that any item number track circuit is constituted.
2. the Rail traffic network capacity determining methods according to claim 1 based on rail traffic history operation data,
It is characterized in that, big city Rail traffic network historical data includes in the step (1): city, time, rail transportation operation
Item number, operating vehicles, route total kilometrage and the passenger traffic volume, the present situation operation information refer to that each route of urban track traffic uses vehicle
Model situation.
3. the Rail traffic network capacity based on rail traffic history operation data according to claim 2 determines
Method, which is characterized in that software is crawled to each Urban Statistical office yearbook web page source over the years by network data in the step (1)
Data in code are crawled, and particular segment head and the tail have the code of distinction for label in intercepting page page source code, thus
Identical specific data needed for the different pages: city, time, rail transportation operation item number, vehicle in use is obtained during crawling
Number, route total kilometrage and the passenger traffic volume.
4. the Rail traffic network capacity based on rail traffic history operation data according to claim 2 determines
Method, which is characterized in that the computation model of step (2) the middle orbit traffic road network capacity with rail line travel permit number x with
Operating mileage y is independent variable, and it is dependent variable that vehicle number z is launched in gauze.
5. the Rail traffic network capacity determining methods according to claim 2 based on rail traffic history operation data,
It is characterized in that, the step (3) includes:
It is normalization foundation with vehicle staffing, by different vehicle model specification, so that different model vehicle weighing apparatus having the same
Amount standard；
According to normalized number according to being modified to each urban track traffic historical data, effective fitting data is obtained.
6. the Rail traffic network capacity determining methods according to claim 4 based on rail traffic history operation data,
It is characterized in that, the step (4) includes: to historical data using Response surface regression, curve fitting is debugged in MATLAB
Series of functions, chooses and variance SSE, mean square deviation MSE, root mean square RMSE are minimum, and R-square is obtained closest to 1 fit approach
To fitting surface, (x, y, z) group corresponding to each point is combined into urban rail transit construction mode on curved surface, to obtain any item number rail
The passenger traffic capacity for the gauze that road route is constituted.
7. the Rail traffic network capacity determining methods according to claim 6 based on rail traffic history operation data,
It is characterized in that, the method also includes: based on the Metro Network calculation of capacity mode after fitting to urban track traffic
Scale is planned and is adjusted, including following manner:
If rail traffic scale is planned and adjusted according to the volume of the flow of passengers, standard vehicle number z needed for undertaking passenger flow is first determined,
Main passenger flow corridor quantity is formed by according to city and determines the rail line travel permit number needed, to find on curved surface pair
The value of the rail transportation operation mileage y answered, carries out the construction of subway network；
If rail traffic scale is planned and adjusted according to the volume of the flow of passengers, standard vehicle number z needed for undertaking passenger flow is first determined,
Urban rail transit construction scale, i.e. operating mileage y are determined to urban rail transit construction amount of investment according to the city, to look on curved surface
To corresponding rail line travel permit number x, the construction of subway network is carried out；
If carrying out operation management according to existing rail line net state, according to the number of lines x and operating mileage y of status,
It is searched on curved surface and reaches vehicle number corresponding to network capacity, compared the practical passenger traffic volume and gauze Capacity Selection vehicle is launched
Quantity z.
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| CN113256964A (en) * | 2021-04-19 | 2021-08-13 | 东南大学 | City exchange center capacity design method based on node-place model |
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