A kind of power network line waves Occurrence forecast method and system
Technical field
The present invention relates to power transmission line plant maintenance field, more particularly to a kind of power network line to wave Occurrence forecast method and be
System.
Background technology
In recent years, as social and economic stability is fast-developing, power load increases, power network coverage rate augmentation, by easily waving
The transmission line of electricity in region also increases therewith, simultaneously as Extreme Weather-climate Events occur again and again so that easily waves regional extent not
Disconnected increase, in the winter time, powerline ice-covering is waved problem and highlighted increasingly, and serious threat the stability and safety of operation of power networks
Property.
At present, for the forecast for transmission line galloping mainly by establishing model, calculating future waves index to carry out, should
Method has the preferable value of forecasting, but waving for zonule shaft tower for large-scale transmission line galloping, due to existing
The local meteorological change in field comparatively fast, is easily reported by mistake, it is necessary to consider the real time humiture change at scene, progress fast scroll forecast.So
And using traditional forecasting procedure, computationally intensive due to needing the numerical computations to become more meticulous on a large scale, calculating time length, it is difficult to
Meet to the quick determination requirement of line oscillation.
Therefore, now need to provide a kind of temperature and relative humidity progress real-time monitored that can be waved based on scene a little, so as to real
The power network line of existing quick recognition waves Occurrence forecast method and system.
The content of the invention
Present invention aims at provide a kind of power network line to wave Occurrence forecast method and system, this method and system by temperature
Degree and relative humidity synthesis carry out threshold calculations into a variable, and introduce coordinate space and enter line range judgement, make result more
Intuitively, and using relative quantity as reference quantity, the scope of application is broad, introduces standard deviation as deviation range, makes result of calculation more
Accurately.
To achieve the above object, the invention provides a kind of power network line to wave Occurrence forecast method, including:
Collect the history to be analyzed waved a little and wave situation, analysis is carried out to the history situation of waving and draws institute with screening
State and to be analyzed wave a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage;
The temperature of initial stage is waved according to history and relative humidity calculation obtains temperature-wet factor set, then using temperature as
Abscissa, relative humidity is that the temperature-wet factor set is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and it is warm-wet to calculate each
The angle of factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to carry out sentencing knowledge to the waving situation about waving a little to be analyzed;
Monitor in real time it is described it is to be analyzed wave a little current temperature and relative humidity, build new temperature-wet factor set, and tie
Close the angle threshold the waving situation about waving a little to be analyzed is carried out sentencing knowledge.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast system, including:
First module:Situation is waved for collecting the history to be analyzed waved a little, the history situation of waving is divided
Analysis and screening, which are drawn, described to be analyzed waves a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage;
Second unit:Temperature-wet factor set is obtained for waving the temperature of initial stage and relative humidity calculation according to history,
Then using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is that the temperature-wet factor set is plotted in rectangular coordinate system, and calculated by ordinate
The angle of each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to be carried out to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little
Sentence knowledge;
Third unit:For monitor in real time it is described it is to be analyzed wave a little current temperature and relative humidity, build new temperature-
Wet factor set, and the waving situation about waving a little to be analyzed is carried out sentencing knowledge with reference to the angle threshold.
The invention has the advantages that:
The present invention provides a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast method and system, first to the history to be analyzed waved a little
Wave situation and screened according to the duration is waved, the temperature and relative humidity waving event and early stage occurs after Analysis and Screening
Relation and temperature-wet factor set is calculated accordingly, further obtain angle threshold, and monitor described to be analyzed wave a little in real time
Temperature and relative humidity, then sentence to know by angle threshold and described to be analyzed wave whether a future waves;This method
Temperature is subjected to threshold calculations into a variable with relative humidity synthesis with system, and introduces coordinate space and enters line range judgement,
Make result more directly perceived, and using relative quantity as reference quantity, the scope of application is broad, introduces standard deviation as deviation range, makes meter
It is more accurate to calculate result, in addition, during analysis, can also be in time according to temperature and relative humidity the modification angle monitored
Threshold value, accuracy and the flexibility of prediction result are improved, be power network icing fast prediction, carry out Anti-galloping emergency measure in advance
Prepare, there is provided strong technical support.
Below with reference to accompanying drawings, the present invention is further detailed explanation.
Brief description of the drawings
The accompanying drawing for forming the part of the application is used for providing a further understanding of the present invention, schematic reality of the invention
Apply example and its illustrate to be used to explain the present invention, do not form inappropriate limitation of the present invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the process schematic of the preferred embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is that to be analyzed wave of the preferred embodiment of the present invention will not a little wave schematic diagram;
Fig. 3 is that to be analyzed wave of the preferred embodiment of the present invention can wave schematic diagram.
Embodiment
Embodiments of the invention are described in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, but the present invention can be defined by the claims
Implement with the multitude of different ways of covering.
Embodiment 1
The present embodiment provides a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast method, reference picture 1, including:
Collect the history to be analyzed waved a little and wave situation, analysis is carried out to the history situation of waving and draws institute with screening
State and to be analyzed wave a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage;
The temperature of initial stage is waved according to history and relative humidity calculation obtains temperature-wet factor set, then using temperature as
Abscissa, relative humidity is that the temperature-wet factor set is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and it is warm-wet to calculate each
The angle of factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to carry out sentencing knowledge to the waving situation about waving a little to be analyzed;
Monitor in real time it is described it is to be analyzed wave a little current temperature and relative humidity, build new temperature-wet factor set, and tie
Close the angle threshold the waving situation about waving a little to be analyzed is carried out sentencing knowledge.
Specifically, by taking certain 500kV transmission line gallopings point of certain province's power network as an example, the transmission line galloping point is designated as
Q, collect Q points and wave event 10 times in history, represented to wave event each time with i, wherein, 0<I≤10, collection are waved each time
(it is determined that to hour) S between at the beginning of eventi, end time (it is determined that to hour) EiAnd early stage takes place in the event of waving
Temperature TiWith relative humidity Hi, what deserves to be explained is, the event of waving take place refer to early stage wave event occur before it is one small
When, and waving event each time is occurred in the case of less than 0 °.
Record the temperature for waving event collected and relative humidity data tentatively establishes temperature-wet factor set (Ti, Hi), Q points
Temperature and relative humidity value it is as shown in table 1 below:
Table 1Q points 10 temperature and rh value for waving event in history
Sequence number |
Temperature Ti(℃) |
Relative humidity Hi(%) |
1 |
-1.99 |
95 |
2 |
-1.84 |
98 |
3 |
-1.74 |
93 |
4 |
-2.06 |
95 |
5 |
-1.87 |
100 |
6 |
-1.68 |
98 |
7 |
-1.9 |
93 |
8 |
-1.52 |
96 |
9 |
-1.68 |
95 |
10 |
-1.46 |
98 |
According to S between the waving each time at the beginning of event of collectioniWith end time EiHolding for event is waved in calculating each time
Continuous duration:
Li=Ei-Si;
In formula, LiRepresent that Q points wave the duration of event each time, history is waved into duration and is more than a certain setting
Value wave event reservation, and by history wave duration less than or equal to a certain setting value wave event reject, it is necessary to
Illustrate, because the line oscillation duration is more long, the circuit within usual 1 hour, which is swung, not to be regarded as waving,
Therefore, the setting value is set as 2 hours, screened according to above-mentioned screening conditions 10 events of waving historical to Q points,
The lasting event for waving event is all higher than 2 hours due to above-mentioned 10 times, therefore according to waving the new temperature of event establishment-wet for above-mentioned 10 times
Factor set (Tj, Hj), wherein 0<j≤10.
Choose above-mentioned 10 times and wave the temperature maximum T that early stage occurs for eventmax, temperature minimum value TminAnd relative humidity
Maximum Hmax, relative humidity minimum value HminObtain Tmax=-1.46, Tmin=-2.06, Hmax=100, Hmin=93, and will sieve
The data of choosing substitute into formula:
With by temperature-wet factor set (Tj, Hj) enter line translation, obtain the temperature being easy to be drawn in two-dimensional coordinate of specification-wet because
Subset (tj, hj), wherein 0<J≤10, its result of calculation are as shown in table 2 below:
Temperature and rh value after the conversion of table 2
Sequence number |
Temperature ti(℃) |
Relative humidity hi(%) |
1 |
0.12 |
0.29 |
2 |
0.37 |
0.71 |
3 |
0.53 |
0.00 |
4 |
0.00 |
0.29 |
5 |
0.32 |
1.00 |
6 |
0.63 |
0.71 |
7 |
0.27 |
0.00 |
8 |
0.90 |
0.43 |
9 |
0.63 |
0.29 |
10 |
1.00 |
0.71 |
Further, using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is ordinate by the temperature obtained after conversion-wet factor set (tj,
hj) be plotted in two-dimensional coordinate space, and above-mentioned related data is substituted into formulaCalculate temperature-wet factor set
(tj, hj) in the angle theta of each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissaj, and according to formulaWithθ is calculatedjAverage value be θmean=0.74, standard deviation θstd=0.54, and according to θj's
Average value and standard deviation pass through formula θmax=θmean+θstdAnd θmin=θmean-θstdThe maximum θ of angle threshold is calculatedmax
=1.28, the minimum value θ of angle thresholdmin=0.20, then the scope of angle threshold is [0.20,1.28].
Then, the current temperature T of Q points is monitored in real time by measurement apparatusobsWith relative humidity Hobs, built based on above-mentioned thought
Current temperature-wet the factor set of vertical Q points, therefrom chooses a data Tobs=-1.5 DEG C and Hobs=94%, and by the data group
Cheng Wen-wet factor pair (tobs, hobs), and temperature-wet factor pair (t is obtained after calculating and conversionobs, hobs) value for (0.93,
0.14) its angle value θ, is then calculatedobs=0.15, as shown in Fig. 2 due toIt can then obtain
Go out conclusion, the point Q to be analyzed that waves will not be waved for 1 hour in future.It should be noted that in the current number to monitoring in real time
According to, it is necessary to judge data, that is, the temperature data and relative humidity data in the data being monitored to need before being analyzed
To meet the maximum less than or equal to historical data simultaneously, more than or equal to the minimum value of historical data, to ensure prison in real time
The data of survey can meet temperature that the environmental condition of icing and ensureing obtains during the data to monitoring in real time are analyzed-
Wet factor pair (tobs, hobs) in tobsAnd hobsValue be between 0 and 1.In addition, what deserves to be explained is, if the number of monitoring
Temperature data and relative humidity data in are more than or equal to without the maximum met less than or equal to historical data simultaneously
Any of temperature data and relative humidity data in the minimum value of historical data, or the data of monitoring data do not meet
Less than or equal to the maximum of historical data, more than or equal to the minimum value of historical data, still, the data of the monitoring are in reality
Waved in situation, then it is right in historical data to be added to the temperature data in the data of the monitoring and relative humidity data
Historical data is adjusted, be then based on above-mentioned thought recalculate angle threshold with improve the accuracy of prediction result with flexibly
Property.
Embodiment 2
From the temperature T of the Q points real-time monitoredobsWith relative humidity HobsIt is middle to choose other a data Tobs=-1.6 DEG C
And Hobs=98%, and the data is formed into temperature-wet factor pair, and obtain temperature-wet factor pair (t by calculating and conversionobs,
hobs) it is (0.76,0.71), its angle value θ is then calculatedobs=0.75, as shown in figure 3, due to 0.75 ∈ [0.20,
1.28], then it may be concluded that the point Q to be analyzed that waves can be waved for 1 hour in future.
Embodiment 3
Corresponding with above method embodiment, the present embodiment discloses a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast system, bag
Include:
First module:Situation is waved for collecting the history to be analyzed waved a little, the history situation of waving is divided
Analysis and screening, which are drawn, described to be analyzed waves a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage;
Second unit:Temperature-wet factor set is obtained for waving the temperature of initial stage and relative humidity calculation according to history,
Then using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is that the temperature-wet factor set is plotted in rectangular coordinate system, and calculated by ordinate
The angle of each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to be carried out to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little
Sentence knowledge;
Third unit:For monitor in real time it is described it is to be analyzed wave a little current temperature and relative humidity, build new temperature-
Wet factor set, and the waving situation about waving a little to be analyzed is carried out sentencing knowledge with reference to the angle threshold.
The concrete processing procedure of above-mentioned each unit can refer to above method embodiment, repeat no more.
As described above, the present invention, which provides a kind of power network line, waves Occurrence forecast method and system, first to dance to be analyzed
The history of dynamic point is waved situation and screened according to the duration is waved, the temperature waved event and early stage occurs after Analysis and Screening
With the relation of relative humidity and temperature-wet factor set is calculated accordingly, further obtain angle threshold, and treated in real time described in monitoring
Temperature and relative humidity a little are waved in analysis, then sentence that knowledge is described to be analyzed to wave whether a future waves by angle threshold
It is dynamic;Temperature is carried out threshold calculations by this method and system with relative humidity synthesis into a variable, and introduces coordinate space progress
Scope judges, makes result more directly perceived, and using relative quantity as reference quantity, the scope of application is broad, introduces standard deviation as deviation
Scope, make result of calculation more accurate, be power network icing fast prediction, carry out Anti-galloping emergency measure in advance and prepare, there is provided
Strong technical support.
The preferred embodiments of the present invention are the foregoing is only, are not intended to limit the invention, for the skill of this area
For art personnel, the present invention can have various modifications and variations.Within the spirit and principles of the invention, that is made any repaiies
Change, equivalent substitution, improvement etc., should be included in the scope of the protection.