CN107436162B - A kind of power network line waves Occurrence forecast method and system - Google Patents
A kind of power network line waves Occurrence forecast method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to power transmission line plant maintenance fields, it discloses a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast method and system, think power grid icing quick predict, carry out Anti-galloping emergency measure in advance to prepare, strong technical support is provided, the present invention collects the history to be analyzed waved a little first and waves situation, waves situation to history and carries out analysis and obtains and to be analyzed wave a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage with screening；Temperature-wet factor set is obtained according to temperature and relative humidity calculation, then using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is that temperature-wet factor set is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and the angle for calculating each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to carry out sentencing knowledge to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little；The real-time monitoring temperature and relative humidity to be analyzed waved a little constructs the wet factor set of new temperature-, and carries out sentencing knowledge to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little in conjunction with angle threshold.
Description
Technical field
Occurrence forecast method is waved the present invention relates to power transmission line plant maintenance field more particularly to a kind of power network line and is
System.
Background technique
In recent years, with social and economic stability fast development, power load increases, power grid covering surface augmentation, by easily waving
The transmission line of electricity in region also increases therewith, simultaneously as Extreme Weather-climate Events occur again and again, so that easily waving regional scope not
Disconnected to increase, in winter, powerline ice-covering is waved problem and is highlighted increasingly, seriously threatens the stability and safety of operation of power networks
Property.
Currently, for transmission line galloping forecast mainly by establishing model, calculating future waves index to carry out, should
Method has the preferable value of forecasting, but waving for zonule shaft tower for large-scale transmission line galloping, due to existing
The local meteorological variation in field is very fast, is easy to report by mistake, needs to consider the real time humiture variation at scene, carries out fast scroll forecast.So
And using traditional forecasting procedure, it is computationally intensive since the numerical value for needing to refine on a large scale calculates, it is long to calculate the time, it is difficult to
Meet to the quick determination requirement of line oscillation.
Therefore, it now needs to provide a kind of temperature that can be waved based on scene a little and relative humidity be observed in real time, thus reality
The power network line of existing quick recognition waves Occurrence forecast method and system.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of that present invention to provide a kind of power network line wave Occurrence forecast method and system, this method and system will be warm
Degree and relative humidity are comprehensive at a variable progress threshold calculations, and introduce coordinate space and carry out range judgement, make result more
Intuitively, and using relative quantity as reference quantity, the scope of application is broad, introduces standard deviation as deviation range, makes calculated result more
Accurately.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a kind of power network lines to wave Occurrence forecast method, comprising:
Collect the history to be analyzed waved a little and wave situation, to the history wave situation carry out analysis with screening obtain institute
It states and to be analyzed waves a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage；
The temperature of initial stage is waved according to history and relative humidity calculation obtains temperature-wet factor set, is then with temperature
Abscissa, relative humidity are that the wet factor set of the temperature-is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and it is wet to calculate each temperature-
The angle of factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to carry out sentencing knowledge to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little；
It is to be analyzed described in real-time monitoring to wave a little current temperature and relative humidity, the wet factor set of new temperature-is constructed, and tie
It closes the angle threshold situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little is carried out sentencing knowledge.
To achieve the above object, the present invention provides a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast system, comprising:
First unit: situation is waved for collecting the history to be analyzed waved a little, situation is waved to the history and is divided
Analysis and screening, which obtain, described to be analyzed waves a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage；
Second unit: obtaining temperature-wet factor set for waving the temperature of initial stage and relative humidity calculation according to history,
Then using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is that the wet factor set of the temperature-is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and is calculated
The angle of each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to carry out to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little
Sentence knowledge；
Third unit: a little current temperature and relative humidity are waved for be analyzed described in real-time monitoring, constructs new temperature-
Wet factor set, and the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little is carried out sentencing knowledge in conjunction with the angle threshold.
The invention has the following advantages:
The present invention provides a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast method and system, first to the history to be analyzed waved a little
It waves situation and is screened according to the duration is waved, the temperature and relative humidity waving event and early period occurs after Analysis and Screening
Relationship and temperature-wet factor set is calculated accordingly, further obtain angle threshold, and to be analyzed described in real-time monitoring wave a little
Temperature and relative humidity, then sentence to know by angle threshold and described to be analyzed wave whether future waves；This method
It is with system that temperature and relative humidity is comprehensive at a variable progress threshold calculations, and introduce coordinate space and carry out range judgement,
Keep result more intuitive, and using relative quantity as reference quantity, the scope of application is broad, introduces standard deviation as deviation range, makes to count
It is more accurate to calculate result, in addition, in the analysis process, it can also be in time according to temperature and relative humidity the modification angle monitored
Threshold value improves the accuracy and flexibility of prediction result, is power grid icing quick predict, carries out Anti-galloping emergency measure in advance
Prepare, provides strong technical support.
Below with reference to accompanying drawings, the present invention is described in further detail.
Detailed description of the invention
The attached drawing constituted part of this application is used to provide further understanding of the present invention, schematic reality of the invention
It applies example and its explanation is used to explain the present invention, do not constitute improper limitations of the present invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the process schematic of the preferred embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is that be analyzed wave of the preferred embodiment of the present invention will not a little wave schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is that be analyzed wave of the preferred embodiment of the present invention can wave schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
The embodiment of the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with attached drawing, but the present invention can be defined by the claims
Implement with the multitude of different ways of covering.
Embodiment 1
The present embodiment provides a kind of power network lines to wave Occurrence forecast method, referring to Fig.1, comprising:
Collect the history to be analyzed waved a little and wave situation, to the history wave situation carry out analysis with screening obtain institute
It states and to be analyzed waves a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage；
The temperature of initial stage is waved according to history and relative humidity calculation obtains temperature-wet factor set, is then with temperature
Abscissa, relative humidity are that the wet factor set of the temperature-is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and it is wet to calculate each temperature-
The angle of factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to carry out sentencing knowledge to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little；
It is to be analyzed described in real-time monitoring to wave a little current temperature and relative humidity, the wet factor set of new temperature-is constructed, and tie
It closes the angle threshold situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little is carried out sentencing knowledge.
Specifically, by taking certain saves certain 500kV transmission line galloping point of power grid as an example, which is denoted as
Q collects Q point and waves event 10 times in history, indicated to wave event each time with i, wherein 0 < i≤10, collection are waved each time
S (is determined to hour) at the beginning of eventi, end time (determine hour) EiAnd early period takes place in the event of waving
Temperature TiWith relative humidity Hi, it is worth noting that, the event of waving take place refer to early period wave event occur before it is one small
When, and waving event each time all is occurred lower than 0 °.
It records the temperature for waving event collected and relative humidity data tentatively establishes temperature-wet factor set (Ti, Hi), Q point
Temperature and relative humidity value it is as shown in table 1 below:
Table 1Q point waves the temperature and rh value of event for 10 times in history
| Serial number | Temperature Ti(℃) | Relative humidity Hi(%) |
| 1 | -1.99 | 95 |
| 2 | -1.84 | 98 |
| 3 | -1.74 | 93 |
| 4 | -2.06 | 95 |
| 5 | -1.87 | 100 |
| 6 | -1.68 | 98 |
| 7 | -1.9 | 93 |
| 8 | -1.52 | 96 |
| 9 | -1.68 | 95 |
| 10 | -1.46 | 98 |
According to the S at the beginning of waving event each time of collectioniWith end time EiHolding for event is waved in calculating each time
Continuous duration:
Li=Ei-Si；
In formula, LiIt indicates that Q point waves the duration of event each time, history is waved into duration greater than a certain setting
Value waves event reservation, and history is waved duration and is rejected less than or equal to the event of waving of a certain setting value, needs
Illustrate, since the line oscillation duration is more long, the route swing within usual 1 hour is not regarded as waving,
Therefore, which is set as 2 hours, is screened according to above-mentioned screening conditions 10 events of waving historical to Q point,
The lasting event for waving event due to above-mentioned 10 times is all larger than 2 hours, therefore it is wet to wave the new temperature-of event establishment according to above-mentioned 10 times
Factor set (Tj, Hj), wherein 0 < j≤10.
It chooses above-mentioned 10 times and waves the temperature maximum T that early period occurs for eventmax, temperature minimum value TminAnd relative humidity
Maximum value Hmax, relative humidity minimum value HminObtain Tmax=-1.46, Tmin=-2.06, Hmax=100, Hmin=93, and will sieve
The data of choosing substitute into formula:
With by temperature-wet factor set (Tj, Hj) converted, standardized convenient for the temperature-that is drawn in two-dimensional coordinate it is wet because
Subset (tj, hj), wherein 0 < j≤10, calculated result is as shown in table 2 below:
The transformed temperature of table 2 and rh value
| Serial number | Temperature ti(℃) | Relative humidity hi(%) |
| 1 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| 2 | 0.37 | 0.71 |
| 3 | 0.53 | 0.00 |
| 4 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| 5 | 0.32 | 1.00 |
| 6 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| 7 | 0.27 | 0.00 |
| 8 | 0.90 | 0.43 |
| 9 | 0.63 | 0.29 |
| 10 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
Further, using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is ordinate by the wet factor set (t of the temperature-obtained after transformationj,
hj) be plotted in two-dimensional coordinate space, and above-mentioned related data is substituted into formulaCalculate temperature-wet factor set
(tj, hj) in each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa angle thetaj, and according to formulaWithθ is calculatedjAverage value be θmean=0.74, standard deviation θstd=0.54, and according to θj's
Average and standard deviation passes through formula θmax=θmean+θstdAnd θmin=θmean-θstdThe maximum value θ of angle threshold is calculatedmax
=1.28, the minimum value θ of angle thresholdmin=0.20, then the range of angle threshold is [0.20,1.28].
Then, the temperature T current by measuring device real-time monitoring Q pointobsWith relative humidity Hobs, built based on above-mentioned thought
The current wet factor set of temperature-of vertical Q point, therefrom chooses a data Tobs=-1.5 DEG C and Hobs=94%, and by the data group
Wet factor pair (the t of Cheng Wen-obs, hobs), and temperature-wet factor pair (t is obtained after calculating and transformationobs, hobs) value be (0.93,
0.14) its angle value θ, is then calculatedobs=0.15, as shown in Fig. 2, due toIt can then obtain
Conclusion out, the point Q to be analyzed that waves will not be waved for 1 hour in future.It should be noted that in the current number to real-time monitoring
It before being analyzed, needs to judge data, that is, the temperature data and relative humidity data need in data being monitored to
To meet the maximum value less than or equal to historical data simultaneously, more than or equal to the minimum value of historical data, to guarantee prison in real time
The data of survey are able to satisfy the environmental condition of icing and guarantee the temperature-obtained during the data to real-time monitoring are analyzed
Wet factor pair (tobs, hobs) in tobsAnd hobsValue be between 0 and 1.In addition, it is worth noting that, if the number of monitoring
Temperature data and relative humidity data in are less than or equal to the maximum value of historical data without meeting simultaneously, are greater than or equal to
Any of temperature data and relative humidity data in the minimum value of historical data, or the data of monitoring data do not meet
Less than or equal to the maximum value of historical data, more than or equal to the minimum value of historical data, still, the data of the monitoring are in reality
Waved in situation, then by the data of the monitoring temperature data and relative humidity data be added to it is right in historical data
Historical data is adjusted, be then based on above-mentioned thought recalculate angle threshold with improve the accuracy of prediction result and flexibly
Property.
Embodiment 2
From the temperature T of the Q point real-time monitoredobsWith relative humidity HobsIt is middle to choose other data Tobs=-1.6 DEG C
And Hobs=98%, and temperature-wet factor pair (t is obtained by data composition temperature-wet factor pair, and by calculating and transformationobs,
hobs) it is (0.76,0.71), its angle value θ is then calculatedobs=0.75, as shown in figure 3, due to 0.75 ∈ [0.20,
1.28], then it may be concluded that the point Q to be analyzed that waves can be waved for 1 hour in future.
Embodiment 3
Corresponding to the above method embodiment, the present embodiment discloses a kind of power network line and waves Occurrence forecast system, wraps
It includes:
First unit: situation is waved for collecting the history to be analyzed waved a little, situation is waved to the history and is divided
Analysis and screening, which obtain, described to be analyzed waves a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage；
Second unit: obtaining temperature-wet factor set for waving the temperature of initial stage and relative humidity calculation according to history,
Then using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is that the wet factor set of the temperature-is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and is calculated
The angle of each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa obtains angle threshold to carry out to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little
Sentence knowledge；
Third unit: a little current temperature and relative humidity are waved for be analyzed described in real-time monitoring, constructs new temperature-
Wet factor set, and the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little is carried out sentencing knowledge in conjunction with the angle threshold.
The concrete processing procedure of above-mentioned each unit can refer to above method embodiment, repeat no more.
As described above, the present invention, which provides a kind of power network line, waves Occurrence forecast method and system, first to dance to be analyzed
The history of dynamic point is waved situation and is screened according to waving the duration, the temperature waved event and early period occurs after Analysis and Screening
Temperature-wet factor set is calculated with the relationship of relative humidity and accordingly, further obtains angle threshold, and described in real-time monitoring to
Temperature and relative humidity a little are waved in analysis, then sentence that knowledge is described to be analyzed to wave whether future waves by angle threshold
It is dynamic；This method and system are comprehensive at a variable progress threshold calculations by temperature and relative humidity, and introduce coordinate space progress
Range judgement, keeps result more intuitive, and using relative quantity as reference quantity, and the scope of application is broad, introduces standard deviation as deviation
Range keeps calculated result more accurate, is power grid icing quick predict, carries out Anti-galloping emergency measure in advance and prepares, provides
Strong technical support.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to restrict the invention, for the skill of this field
For art personnel, the invention may be variously modified and varied.All within the spirits and principles of the present invention, made any to repair
Change, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of power network line waves Occurrence forecast method characterized by comprising
Collect the history to be analyzed waved a little and wave situation, to the history wave situation carry out analysis and screening obtain it is described to
A temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage are waved in analysis；
The temperature of initial stage is waved according to history and relative humidity calculation obtains temperature-wet factor set, then with temperature for horizontal seat
Mark, relative humidity are that the wet factor set of the temperature-is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and is calculated every in temperature-wet factor set
The angle of the wet factor pair of one temperature-and abscissa obtains angle threshold to sentence to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little
Know；
It is to be analyzed described in real-time monitoring to wave a little current temperature and relative humidity, the wet factor set of new temperature-is constructed, and combine institute
It states angle threshold the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little is carried out sentencing knowledge；
Wherein, calculate temperature-wet factor set specifically includes the following steps:
(1) select it is to be analyzed wave point Q, collecting Q point, n times are waved in event in history, at the beginning of waving event i each time
Si, end time Ei, and wave the temperature T of initial stageiWith relative humidity Hi, preliminary to establish temperature-wet factor set (Ti,
Hi), wherein 0 < i≤n；
(2) duration to be analyzed waved point Q and wave event each time is calculated:
Li=Ei-Si；
In formula, LiIndicate the duration to be analyzed waved point Q and wave event each time；
By history wave duration greater than a certain setting value wave event retain, and by history wave duration be less than or
Event of waving equal to a certain setting value is rejected, and is obtained m times by screening and is waved event, m≤n, and it is wet to establish new temperature-accordingly
Factor set (Tj, Hj), wherein 0 < j≤m；
(3) the temperature maximum T obtained by screening is chosenmax, temperature minimum value TminAnd relative humidity maximum value Hmax, phase
To humidity minimum value Hmin,
Pass through following formula:
Calculate the simultaneously wet factor set of temperature-described in shift step (2), the wet factor set (t of the temperature-standardizedj, hj), wherein 0 < j≤
m；
Calculate angle threshold specifically includes the following steps:
(1) using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is ordinate, by temperature-wet factor set (tj, hj) it is plotted in two-dimensional coordinate space
In, calculate temperature-wet factor set (tj, hj) in each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa angle thetaj:
Calculate θjAverage value θmeanWith standard deviation θstd:
According to θjAverage value θmeanWith standard deviation θstdCalculate the maximum value of angle threshold and the minimum value of angle threshold:
θmax=θmean+θstd；
θmin=θmean-θstd；
Obtaining angle threshold range is [θmin, θmax]；
Real-time monitoring is to be analyzed to wave the current temperature T of point QobsWith relative humidity Hobs, calculate and convert by above-mentioned formula
To it is to be analyzed wave the current wet factor set of temperature-of point Q and therefrom choose to be analyzed wave the wet factor pair (t of the current temperature-of point Qobs,
hobs), angle, θ is calculatedobs, by θobsIt is compared with above-mentioned angle threshold range, works as θobs∈[θmin, θmax] when, judgement
The point Q to be analyzed that waves can be waved in following certain time；WhenWhen, judge following one
The interior point Q to be analyzed that waves that fixes time will not be waved.
2. a kind of power network line waves Occurrence forecast system characterized by comprising
First unit: waving situation for collecting the history to be analyzed waved a little, to the history wave situation carry out analysis with
Screening, which obtains, described to be analyzed waves a temperature and relative humidity for waving initial stage；
Second unit: temperature-wet factor set is obtained for waving the temperature of initial stage and relative humidity calculation according to history, then
Using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is that the wet factor set of the temperature-is plotted in rectangular coordinate system by ordinate, and is calculated each
The angle of the wet factor pair of a temperature-and abscissa obtains angle threshold to sentence to the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little
Know；
Third unit: waving a little current temperature and relative humidity for be analyzed described in real-time monitoring, construct new temperature-it is wet because
Subset, and the situation of waving to be analyzed waved a little is carried out sentencing knowledge in conjunction with the angle threshold；
Wherein, calculate temperature-wet factor set in the second unit specifically includes the following steps:
(1) select it is to be analyzed wave point Q, collecting Q point, n times are waved in event in history, at the beginning of waving event i each time
Si, end time Ei, and wave the temperature T of initial stageiWith relative humidity Hi, preliminary to establish temperature-wet factor set (Ti,
Hi), wherein 0 < i≤n；
(2) duration to be analyzed waved point Q and wave event each time is calculated:
Li=Ei-Si；
In formula, LiIndicate the duration to be analyzed waved point Q and wave event each time；
By history wave duration greater than a certain setting value wave event retain, and by history wave duration be less than or
Event of waving equal to a certain setting value is rejected, and is obtained m times by screening and is waved event, m≤n, and it is wet to establish new temperature-accordingly
Factor set (Tj, Hj), wherein 0 < j≤m；
(3) the temperature maximum T obtained by screening is chosenmax, temperature minimum value TminAnd relative humidity maximum value Hmax, phase
To humidity minimum value Hmin,
Pass through following formula:
Calculate the simultaneously wet factor set of temperature-described in shift step (2), the wet factor set (t of the temperature-standardizedj, hj), wherein 0 < j≤
m；
In the second unit calculate angle threshold specifically includes the following steps:
(1) using temperature as abscissa, relative humidity is ordinate, by temperature-wet factor set (tj, hj) it is plotted in two-dimensional coordinate space
In, calculate temperature-wet factor set (tj, hj) in each temperature-wet factor pair and abscissa angle thetaj:
Calculate θjAverage value θmeanWith standard deviation θstd:
According to θjAverage value θmeanWith standard deviation θstdCalculate the maximum value of angle threshold and the minimum value of angle threshold:
θmax=θmean+θstd；
θmin=θmean-θstd；
Obtaining angle threshold range is [θmin, θmax]；
The third unit real-time monitoring is to be analyzed to wave the current temperature T of point QobsWith relative humidity Hobs, by above-mentioned formula
Calculate and transformation obtain it is to be analyzed wave the current wet factor set of temperature-of point Q and therefrom choose to be analyzed wave the current temperature-of point Q
Wet factor pair (tobs, hobs), angle, θ is calculatedobs, by θobsIt is compared with above-mentioned angle threshold range, works as θobs∈
[θmin, θmax] when, judge that the point Q to be analyzed that waves can be waved in following certain time；When
When, judge that the point Q to be analyzed that waves will not be waved in following certain time.
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| CN107464024B (en) * | 2017-08-17 | 2021-01-15 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Overhead transmission line galloping prediction method and system based on icing shape test |
| CN107958312B (en) * | 2017-12-12 | 2021-08-31 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Electric transmission line galloping prediction method and system based on inversion algorithm and storage medium |
| CN109446474A (en) * | 2018-09-05 | 2019-03-08 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of methods of exhibiting and system of waving property of data |
| CN109948839B (en) * | 2019-03-06 | 2023-02-03 | 国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Method and system for predicting and early warning galloping risk of overhead transmission line |
| CN110929808A (en) * | 2019-12-11 | 2020-03-27 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Multi-element intelligent correction method and system for waving temperature |
| CN112365057A (en) * | 2020-11-12 | 2021-02-12 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Regional power transmission line galloping event model construction method and galloping event prediction method |
| CN113536568B (en) * | 2021-07-15 | 2022-06-24 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Galloping prediction method and system based on key influence factors of power transmission line galloping |
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| CN103559557A (en) * | 2013-11-01 | 2014-02-05 | 国家电网公司 | Gallop warning method and system based on electric transmission line of electrical power system |
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