CN107330621B - A kind of multi-reservoir discharge structure evaluation method for failure based on Bayesian network - Google Patents
A kind of multi-reservoir discharge structure evaluation method for failure based on Bayesian network Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of multi-reservoir discharge structure evaluation method for failure based on Bayesian network, including：Establish Bayesian Network Topology Structures；Determine each probability；The flood system failure probability that overflows calculates；Global failure probability calculation.The present invention is combined the Bayesian network that probability of malfunction judges with the event tree of the excessive big vast facility failure of existing judgement ladder multi-reservoir, and the probability calculation because of the downstream control step failure that upstream dam bursting flood causes is increased as needed, form the excessive big vast facility Failure Assessment network of complete Bayes, this multivariable complication system of multi-reservoir discharge structure failure, becomes the system that can analyze common cause failure and backward inference.This assessment system can acquire the value of information or whether need the judgement that new information makes science, make discharge structure failure analysis gradual perfection and more science.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of multi-reservoir discharge structure evaluation method for failure based on Bayesian network, is a kind of water conservancy project
Analysis calculation method is a kind of discharge structure risk assessment and Cascade Reservoirs dam system risk prevention and control analysis method.
Background technology
Global extreme climate frequency of occurrences quickening, reservoir dam maximum probable flood PMF or probable maximum precipitation PMP's is general
The requirement of new standard cannot have been met by reading, the reason is that river system is extremely complex in existing many rivers or basin,
Such as the multi-reservoir that cascade development is formed, it is big vast as caused by dam break, extreme climate etc. that design flood is also contemplated that extreme Flood inducing factors
Water.Therefore, from the angle for ensuring dam safety, the discharge capacity of release floodwatering facility will not only meet current code requirement,
It is also contemplated that the influence of the extreme events such as above-mentioned dam break, is constantly checked.
The evaluation method of conventional Cascade Reservoirs discharge structure failure mainly has：Monte Carlo method, event tree method, event
Hinder tree method and decision tree method etc..Monte Carlo method is suitble to the unrelated event of description to result based on traditional statistical analysis
It influences, it is difficult to describe the correlation between each event.Event tree, fault tree and decision tree method can be expressed preferably between different levels
Logical relation and event between correlation degree, but it is complicated to fail this multivariable of Cascade Reservoirs discharge structure
System, and the system for analyzing common cause failure and backward inference is needed, the above method is difficult to be analyzed and be expressed.
Invention content
In order to overcome problem of the prior art, the present invention to propose a kind of multi-reservoir discharge construction based on Bayesian network
Object evaluation method for failure.The method considers to be based under Lack of support, obstruction or leakage, gate failure three classes fault mode
The global failure probability calculation of Bayesian network analysis and appraisal procedure, can specify discharge structure overflow big vast system failure be as
Size that occurs and final failure probability.
The object of the present invention is achieved like this：A kind of multi-reservoir discharge structure Failure Assessment based on Bayesian network
Method, the multi-reservoir that the method is analyzed include：Each water-holding capacity of upstream and downstream larger reservoir and middle reaches are by more
The Cascade Reservoirs that the smaller reservoir of a water-holding capacity is constituted, wherein lower reservoir property reservoir in order to control, the Cascade Reservoirs
Each reservoir be equipped with spillway and flood discharging tunnel with sluice, the step of method, is as follows：
The step of establishing Bayesian Network Topology Structures：The fault tree being made of each reservoir, spillway, flood discharging tunnel is established,
It converts the fault tree to the Bayesian Network Topology Structures of the system failure, and increases earthquake and extreme flood node, with
And the dam break leaf node in extreme flood；Elementary event, intermediate event and top event in the analysis of the fault tree are expressed
For root node, intermediate node and the leaf node in corresponding Bayesian network；
The step of determining each node probability：It calculates, determines by specification recommended value, statistical value or new calculation procedure, process
Each branch of Bayes's topological network, the failure probability of node；Wherein：Under causing because of upstream dam bursting flood in extreme flood
The calculating process of the probability of trip control step failure includes following sub-step：
The sub-step of the simulation of Cascade Reservoirs upstream flood into reservoir serial sample distribution：
Upstream district flood distribution simulation：Based on reservoir watershed historical flood, according to total amount multiple proportions Zoom method knot
Close the large sample that random-number distribution generates district flood；
Dam break maximum flood calculates：
Wherein：Q b Refer to general dam dam break flow rate calculation value；CFor the discharge coefficient of dam break crevasse；BFor crevasse width；zFor reservoir level；z d Dam weir crest crevasse elevation；WFor reservoir capacity；tFor the time；Q in Carry out flow for upstream；qFortMoment
Reservoir does not include the outflow of crevasse flow；
The superposition of district flood and dam bursting flood obtains lower reservoir Flood process of reservoir system in the case of considering upstream dam break
Row；
Controlling under flood into reservoir large sample has early warning, calculating without early warning operating mode reservoir level under the same starting-point detection of reservoir
Sub-step, the sub-step include：
The calculating analysis of the water level, flow of entire step composition reservoir under single flood into reservoir：
；
Wherein：B r It is wide for the river water surface；yFor the depth of water；For flow；For distance；gFor acceleration of gravity；AIt is disconnected for river
Face area；nFor river manning roughness；sFor the energy gradient, subscript o is initial time.
On same time shaft, entire Cascade Reservoirs are even burst and are calculated：
Wherein：y s Refer to general reservoir level；Q in (t) be t moment reservoir inbound traffics；Q 1,out(z,m) betMoment reservoir
Outflow；mFor discharge structure discharge coefficient.
Final reservoir level of the reservoir under the flood events is controlled to calculate：
Herein in formula variable refer in particular to control reservoir parameter.
Judge whether the sub-step on unrestrained dam：If above-mentioned final reservoir level is more than crest elevation, discharge structure failure, water
It fails in library；Otherwise it does not fail；
It is whole to lead to the probability calculation sub-step that the insufficient and then unrestrained dam of bearing capacity fails because of upstream dam break：Repeat " single
The calculating analysis of the water level, flow of entire step composition reservoir under flood into reservoir ", " on same time shaft, entire Cascade Reservoirs
Even routed calculating ", " final reservoir level of the control reservoir under the flood events calculates " carry out under next flood into reservoir sample
Final reservoir level calculates, and calculates integral cascade multi-reservoir in extreme flood because the downstream that upstream dam bursting flood causes controls ladder
The probability of grade failure；
The step of flood system failure probability that overflows calculates：By recorded and existing sample, calculates Cascade Reservoirs and sluice
The excessive big vast system failure probability of building；
The step of global failure probability calculation：By recorded and existing sample, Cascade Reservoirs flood control by dam is calculated
System global failure probability.
The beneficial effect comprise that：The Bayesian network that the present invention judges probability of malfunction and existing judgement ladder
The event tree of the excessive big vast facility failure of multi-reservoir combines, and it is terraced to increase the downstream control caused by upstream dam bursting flood as needed
The probability calculation of grade failure forms the excessive big vast facility Failure Assessment network of complete Bayes, the failure of multi-reservoir discharge structure
This multivariable complication system, becomes the system that can analyze common cause failure and backward inference.This assessment system can be to information
Value or whether need to acquire the judgement that new information makes science, while can also be to the possibility number of investigation result
The evaluation of quantization is not that conventional method is only capable of obtaining "Yes" or "No", additionally it is possible to be combined prior probability or subjective probability
Analyzed, and in decision process as the case may be under constantly self study, keep discharge structure failure analysis gradually complete
It is apt to and more science.
Description of the drawings
The invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Fig. 1 is the Cascade Reservoirs schematic diagram assessed described in one the method for the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the fault tree under Cascade Reservoirs dam system level；
Fig. 3 is the fault tree of the excessive big vast system of Cascade Reservoirs；
Fig. 4 is the flow chart of the method for the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 5 is the excessive big vast facility failure Bayesian Network Topology Structures figure of the ladder multi-reservoir described in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 6 is that the routed CC of upstream company of case of the present invention becomes a mandarin without early warning, sluices and adjust big vast process schematic；
Fig. 7, which is the routed CC of upstream company of case of the present invention, to be had early warning to become a mandarin, sluice and adjusts big vast process schematic；
Fig. 8 is the Bayesian network schematic diagram of the excessive big vast system risk analysis of the discharge structure of case of the present invention；
Fig. 9 is the table 2 of case of the present invention, the conditional probability table assignment table of gate failure；
Figure 10 is the table 2 of case of the present invention（It is continuous）, the conditional probability table assignment table of gate failure；
Figure 11 is the probability assignment schematic diagram of the Bayesian network of case of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
Embodiment one：
The present embodiment is a kind of multi-reservoir discharge structure evaluation method for failure based on Bayesian network, the method institute
The multi-reservoir of analysis includes：Each water-holding capacity of upstream and downstream larger reservoir and middle reaches is smaller by multiple water-holding capacities
The Cascade Reservoirs that constitute of reservoir, wherein lower reservoir is generally controllable fators, each reservoir of the Cascade Reservoirs
It is equipped with spillway and flood discharging tunnel with sluice, as shown in Figure 1, the fault tree under its dam system level, such as Fig. 2 institutes
Show.
Dam entirety Flood Control System can be divided into dam body in Cascade Reservoirs, overflow flood（By discharge structure）, adjust Hong Dengzi
System, the fault tree for flood system of overflowing, as shown in Figure 3.
The sluicing of dam overflows big vast facility mainly including spillway and flood discharging tunnel, and the chife failure models of the system are the two nothings
The normal flood discharge of method.The reason of flood discharge is failed is attributed to following three：1）Bearing capacity is insufficient；2）Obstruction or leakage；3）Gate event
Barrier failure.For these three fault modes, in conjunction with the structure composition and operation principle of Cascade Reservoirs release floodwatering facility, with reference to expert
Experience can establish corresponding failure tree-model, as shown in Figure 2.I.e.：Discharge structure considers spillway and flood discharging tunnel；Spillway loses
Effect considers above-mentioned three kinds of fault modes；Decompose specific Failure Factor include upstream dam bursting flood, over-level flood, floating material,
Leakage, the failure of girder side bar sluice foundation, the failure of headstock gear Control system architecture.
Method described in the present embodiment is step earth and rockfill dam multi-reservoir discharge structure（Spillway, flood discharging tunnel）Consider carrying
Power is insufficient, blocks or leaks, the global failure probability calculation based on Bayesian network analysis under gate failure three classes fault mode
And appraisal procedure, it can specify how the big vast system failure of overflowing of above-mentioned discharge structure occurs and final failure probability
Size.
The basic ideas of the present embodiment are：By the Bayes of existing flood discharge excessive big vast system fault tree and assessment probability of malfunction
The flood discharge system this systematic generalization complicated and changeable that fails is that probability of malfunction calculates and judges by network integration, and utilization is existing
Event tree technical foundation, join probability operation form the system for the big vast system Failure Assessment that overflows suitable for reservoir.But this assessment embodies
Formation, it is also necessary to the probability of the matters of aggravation such as upstream dam break in overcoming flood discharge to embody caused by the earthquake that occurs and great flood
It calculates.This is that the excessive big vast facility failure institute of ladder multi-reservoir is completely exclusive, and the present embodiment has carried out detailed point with regard to this problem
Analysis, and propose solution.
Method described in the present embodiment is as follows that the flow chart of the method is as shown in Figure 4：
Step 1：The step of establishing Bayesian Network Topology Structures：It establishes and is overflow by what each reservoir, spillway, flood discharging tunnel formed
Big vast system fault tree, converts the fault tree to the Bayesian Network Topology Structures of the system failure, and increases earthquake and pole
Hold the dam break leaf node in flood node, and extreme flood；Elementary event, intermediate event in the analysis of the fault tree and
Top event is represented as root node, intermediate node and leaf node in corresponding Bayesian network, as shown in Figure 5.
In general, as long as the excessive big vast facility fault tree of ladder multi-reservoir is it has been established that directly corresponding by fault tree
Elementary event, intermediate event and top event be converted to the root node, intermediate node and leaf node of Bayesian network, but must
The case where extreme natural calamities such as earthquake and great flood must be increased.Make the Cascade Reservoirs Bayesian network of foundation that can not only retouch
State the common cause failure problem of event（Such as the excessive big vast system failure caused by earthquake or extreme flood）, and can intuitive expression system portion
Logic between part（Such as the reciprocal effect between failure mode）.Excessive flood if the S2 indicated in Fig. 5 is a reservoir embodies
Fault tree S21, S22 are respectively the failure event of spillway, flood discharging tunnel, M1 bearing capacity deficiencies event, M2 obstruction leakages event,
The three classes intermediate events such as M3 gate mechanical breakdown events, C211 are gate event, and P10 is upstream dam bursting flood, P11 is exceeded flood
Water, P12 be flood-relief channel floating material siltation, P13 be flood-relief channel leakage, P14 be gate girder failure, P15 be gate side bar failure,
P16 is the deformation of gate sluice foundation, the failure of P17 gate opening/closing control systems, the failure of P gate open and close devices.Flood discharging tunnel have it is similar with it is excessive
The network in big vast road.
Step 2：The step of determining each node probability：Based on specification recommended value, statistical value or new calculation procedure, process
It calculates, determines each branch of Bayes's topological network, the failure probability of node.Calculate the failure of each node on Bayesian network
Probability.These failure probability majorities can be from the suggestion of existing record or expert, empirical equation, and various calculations are sentenced
Obtained in disconnected mode and various probability statistics in obtain.
As long as according to the integrality of Bayesian network it is found that obtaining the failure probability of each node, you can deduce
Calculate the failure probability of whole system.
According to existing statistical data, bearing capacity deficiency is the key that thrashing, and this step（Step 2）It is middle because of upstream
The probability P 10 for the downstream control step failure that dam bursting flood causes is that library group is distinctive, and there is no statistical probabilities, and risk is tactile after all
It is small probability event to send out the upstream dam bursting flood that step dam causes, and P11-P18 has good grounds.To overcome this problem,
The present embodiment proposes the specific method for solving of the probability P 10 because of the downstream control step failure that upstream dam bursting flood causes.
The calculating process of the probability of the downstream control step failure caused by upstream dam bursting flood in extreme flood includes such as
Lower sub-step：
Step 2_1：The sub-step of the simulation of Cascade Reservoirs upstream flood into reservoir serial sample distribution, such as uses 1,000,000
Group sample is calculated：
1）Upstream district flood distribution simulation：Based on reservoir watershed historical flood, according to total amount multiple proportions Zoom method
The large sample of district flood is generated in conjunction with random-number distribution.
2）Dam break maximum flood calculates：
Wherein：Q b Refer to general dam dam break flow rate calculation value；CFor the discharge coefficient of dam break crevasse；BFor crevasse width；zFor reservoir level；z d Dam weir crest crevasse elevation；WFor reservoir capacity；tFor the time；Q in Carry out flow for upstream；qFortMoment
Reservoir does not include the outflow of crevasse flow.
It is theoretical principle one used in this step.
3）The superposition of district flood and dam bursting flood obtains lower reservoir Flood process of reservoir in the case of considering upstream dam break
Series.
Step 2_2：Being controlled under flood into reservoir large sample under the same starting-point detection of reservoir has early warning, without early warning operating mode reservoir level
Calculating sub-step, the sub-step includes, this sub-step institute according to it is theoretical be principle two, principle three：
1）The calculating analysis of the water level, flow of entire step composition reservoir under single flood into reservoir：
；
Wherein：B r It is wide for the river water surface；yFor the depth of water；For flow；For distance；gFor acceleration of gravity；AIt is disconnected for river
Face area；nFor river manning roughness；sFor the energy gradient, subscript o is initial time.
2）On same time shaft, entire Cascade Reservoirs are even burst and are calculated：
Wherein：y s Refer to general reservoir level；Q in (t) be t moment reservoir inbound traffics；Q 1,out(z,m) betMoment reservoir
Outflow；mFor discharge structure discharge coefficient.
3）Final reservoir level of the reservoir under the flood events is controlled to calculate：
Herein in formula variable refer in particular to control reservoir parameter.
Step 2_3：Judge whether the sub-step on unrestrained dam：If above-mentioned final reservoir level is more than crest elevation, discharge construction
Object fails, reservoir failure；Otherwise it does not fail.
Step 2_4：The sub-step of the whole probability calculation for causing the insufficient and then unrestrained dam of bearing capacity to fail because of upstream dam break：
It repeats " calculating of the water level, flow of entire step composition reservoir is analyzed under single flood into reservoir ", " on same time shaft, entirely
Cascade Reservoirs even routed calculating ", " final reservoir level of the control reservoir under the flood events calculates "（I.e.：Repeat 1）、
2）、3）Deng three processes）The final reservoir level carried out under next flood into reservoir sample calculates, and calculates P10 integral cascade reservoirs
The probability for the downstream control step failure that group causes in extreme flood by upstream dam bursting flood..In this step, arbitrarily once enter
Library flood causes downstream controllable fators water level superelevation dam crest, then remembers that this time causes downstream stage to fail, otherwise does not fail, such as remembers
Total number of samples position N, it is M to lead to the flood number that downstream stage fails, then failure probability P=M/N.
It should be noted that：No early warning refers to control when the flood wave of upstream dam bursting flood evolves to downstream key reservoirs
Reservoir processed, which just starts the emergent operating mode of discharge structure or surpasses, lets out operating mode prediction scheme；It refers to that the same of dam bursting flood occurs in upstream to have early warning
When, control reservoir immediately begins to start the emergent operating mode of discharge structure or surpass to let out operating mode prediction scheme.There is early warning ratio to be let out in advance without early warning
The time of water is substantially equal to the time that upstream flood wave evolves to downstream key reservoirs.
Step 3：The step of flood system failure probability that overflows calculates：By recorded and existing sample, step reservoir is calculated
The excessive big vast system failure probability of group's discharge structure.
Step 4：The step of global failure probability calculation：By recorded and existing sample, it is big to calculate Cascade Reservoirs
Dam Flood Control System global failure probability.
Theoretical principle and the Fundamentals of Mathematics for reaching said effect step 2_1 are as follows.
Theoretical principle one：
As reservoir level further stops up height, when water level rises to dam crest or enters very flood discharging groove（Or artificial drainage slot）
When, start dam crest cross flow process, reaches a slot bottom when being further increased by crevasse flow velocity and wash away critical valueV c Afterwards, slot bottom is opened
Beginning washes away, and starts dam break process.
Crevasse flow is determined by the loss of reservoir capacity in the unit interval, is had：
(1)
According to the conservation of mass, water balance equation can be obtained：
(2)
Wherein：Q b Refer to general dam dam break flow rate calculation value；CFor the discharge coefficient of dam break crevasse, crevasse property is considered
After contraction,CThe ranging from 1.43-1.69m of value1/2/s；BFor crevasse width；zFor reservoir level；z d The crevasse of dam weir crest is high
Journey；WFor reservoir capacity；tFor the time；Q in Carry out flow for upstream；qFortMoment reservoir does not include the outflow of crevasse flow.
When crevasse flow velocity is less thanV c When, by direct solution reservoir increment can be obtained after above-mentioned equilibrium equation differenceΔzMeter
Formula：
(3)
When crevasse flow velocity is more thanV c When, consider crevasse corrode and it is extending transversely, wherein crevasse corrode using old ancestral's illuminate propose
Hyperbolic model：
= (4)
(5)
In formula：For erosion ratio；vFor the shear stress for deducting after critical shear stress； a、bIt is Insults parameter；kBecome for unit
Change the factor；For shear stress；For critical shear stress.
Crevasse is extending transversely to calculate the slip-crack surface analysis method for adding arc form using total stress method.When by giving initial
Betweent 0With time step Dt, calculate corresponding water level increment DH, scour depth DzWith change in flow amount DV。
Theoretical principle two：
Flood enters reservoir and reservoir goes out stream and can use the continuous of unsteady flow into the advance of freshet that downstream river course is formed
Property equation and the equation of motion describe：
(6)
(7)
In formula：BWide, the m for the river water surface；yFor the depth of water, m；tFor time, s；For flow, m3/s；For distance, m；g
For acceleration of gravity, m/s2,AFor river cross-section area, m2；nFor river manning roughness；sFor the energy gradient.Above-mentioned unsteady flow
The solution of model is highly developed, is used after using Newton-Raphson method to linearize above-mentioned nonlinear equation here
Pressiman implitic methods iteratively solve.
Theoretical principle three：
For upper pond, river incoming end water levely n Equal with reservoir intersection water level, boundary condition meets
Following relationship：
(8)
(9)
Dam break is such as considered in formula, then outflowQ 1,out (z,m) be discharge structure discharge and dam break flow and, then
Have：
(10)
(11)
In formula：Q y It is unrelated with head for diversion or the flow item that draws water, C s 、C g Respectively without pressure spillway, lock control flood discharging tunnel
Discharge coefficient,L s For width of spillway,A g For gate area of passage,z s 、z g Respectively without control, lock control flood discharging tunnel elevation.
After upstream flood enters subordinate's reservoir, reservoir level will appearance heap soil or fertilizer over and around the roots be high, overflow top, burst three phases.Stop up high process
Flood routing principle can be applied to acquire above-mentioned ODE using ripe fixed step size Runge-Kutta methods（9）Solution.
Application case：Certain basin upstream earth and rockfill dam group's discharge structure risk assessment trial-ray method：
Present case is determined with reference to certain basin upper reach programme." AA-BB-CC " several ladders are disposed on the section
Grade, is earth and rockfill dam, and wherein BB is to adjust storage capacity to be less than 0.2 hundred million m3Radial-flow type reservoir, AA, CC storage capacity are larger, have certain
Regulation performance, in order to control step.The present embodiment content is applied below, calculates step earth and rockfill dam multi-reservoir discharge structure（Overflow flood
Road, flood discharging tunnel）Consider to be based on Bayesian network analysis under Lack of support, obstruction or leakage, gate failure three classes fault mode
Global failure probability.
Using a certain group of upstream Flood process of reservoir in step 2 as input condition, and consider to cause AA dam breakings, calculates analysis
The final water level of downstream CC superfine reservoirs, and then provide under this group of peb process, whether downstream stage fails.
1 case earth and rockfill dam group's canonical parameter of table
| Reservoir | Maximum height of dam/m | Crest elevation/m | Adjust the m of storage capacity/hundred million3 | The check flood return period/year | Project scale or rank of project |
| AA | 175.0 | 3070.0 | 10.24 | PMF | It is 2 grades special |
| BB | 113.5 | 2690.0 | 0.16 | 5000 | 2 etc. |
| CC | 314.0 | 2510.0 | 19.00 | PMF | It is 1 grade special |
By the calculating of step 2_2,2_3,2_4, while when upstream, AA bursts（That is 0 moment）, CC is just from water level 2500
M starts full lock and sluices, and water level process is as shown in Figure 4.Even routed advance of freshet to CC reservoirs take 8.7 hours to BB, at this time CC water levels
2494.75 m are reduced to, 5.25 m of the range of decrease has emptied part storage capacity in advance, dam bursting flood flow is built still less than sluicing later
Object discharge is built, reservoir level further declines, until near 2494.50 m of minimum point of the 9.7th hour water level, becomes a mandarin, goes out to flow phase at this time
It is more than full lock discharge Deng, subsequent dam bursting flood flow, reservoir level is begun to ramp up, until becoming a mandarin within the 25.6th hour, going out stream the
Whens secondary phase etc., water level rises to 2509.79 m of peak, is less than crest elevation 0.21m, is less than dam wave resistance wall crest elevation 1.41
m.Calculation shows that upper pond bursts under the operating mode, in the case of middle reaches step is even burst, CC increases since the full lock that gives warning in advance sluices
Reservoir capacity for flood control, this dam are unlikely to dam break, and conclusion is not fail.
And then the final reservoir level completed under the lower flood into reservoir samples of step 2_4 calculates, and finally calculates P10 entirety
Failure probability, P10=1.29*10-4。
By the Bayesian network such as Fig. 6 for the excessive big vast system risk analysis of discharge structure that the step 1 of the present embodiment, 2 are established
Shown, which includes 18 nodes, and each node is with failure and normally（Or occurs and do not occur）Two states.Excessive flood system
Failure is acted on by spillway and flood discharging tunnel two father nodes of failure；Spillway and flood discharging tunnel failure are failed by gate respectively
（C211）, upstream dam bursting flood（P10）, over-level flood（P11）, floating material block failure（P12）, leakage（P13）, earthquake etc. 6
The influence of a father node；Gate failure includes then that girder fails（P14）, side bar failure（P15）, foundation deformation（P16）, control system
System failure（P17）, headstock gear structural failure（P18）Deng 5 father nodes.
In addition to P10, remaining each node prior probability is inputted by the data in elementary event and its probability of happening table（Packet
Include P11-P18）, the conditional probability table with multiple father nodes such as gate, spillway, flood discharging tunnel by each father node independently of each other come
Carry out assignment.By taking gate failure as an example, the table 2 in conditional probability assignment such as Fig. 9,10（The conditional probability table of gate failure
Assignment）It is shown.
Thus the excessive big vast system risk analysis Bayesian network of complete multi-reservoir discharge structure can be established, such as Figure 11 institutes
Show.By taking the prior probability of table 2 and conditional probability as an example, it is 1.4 × 10 that the excessive big vast system failure probability of this step, which is finally calculated,-4。
Finally it should be noted that above be merely illustrative of the technical solution of the present invention and it is unrestricted, although with reference to preferable cloth
The scheme of setting describes the invention in detail, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that, it can be to the technology of the present invention
Scheme（Such as the form of multi-reservoir being directed to, the utilization of various formula, step sequencing etc.）Modify or
Equivalent replacement, without departing from the spirit of the technical scheme of the invention and range.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of multi-reservoir discharge structure evaluation method for failure based on Bayesian network, the multi-reservoir that the method is analyzed
Including：Each water-holding capacity of upstream and downstream larger reservoir and middle reaches are made of the smaller reservoir of multiple water-holding capacities
Property reservoir, each reservoir of the Cascade Reservoirs are equipped with sluice in order to control for Cascade Reservoirs, wherein lower reservoir
Spillway and flood discharging tunnel, the step of method is as follows：
The step of establishing Bayesian Network Topology Structures：The fault tree being made of each reservoir, spillway, flood discharging tunnel is established, by institute
The fault tree stated is converted into the Bayesian Network Topology Structures of the system failure, and increases earthquake and extreme flood node, Yi Jiji
Hold the dam break leaf node in flood；Elementary event, intermediate event and top event in the analysis of the fault tree are represented as phase
Answer root node, intermediate node and the leaf node in Bayesian network；
The step of determining each node probability：It is calculated by specification recommended value, statistical value or new calculation procedure, process, determines pattra leaves
Each branch of this topological network, the failure probability of node；Wherein：Because the downstream that upstream dam bursting flood causes is controlled in extreme flood
The calculating process of the probability of step failure processed includes following sub-step：
The sub-step of the simulation of Cascade Reservoirs upstream flood into reservoir serial sample distribution：
Upstream district flood distribution simulation：Based on reservoir watershed historical flood, according to total amount multiple proportions Zoom method combine with
The distribution of machine number generates the large sample of district flood；
Dam break maximum flood calculates：
Wherein：Q b Refer to general dam dam break flow rate calculation value；CFor the discharge coefficient of dam break crevasse；BFor crevasse width；zFor
Reservoir level；z d Dam weir crest crevasse elevation；WFor reservoir capacity；tFor the time；Q in Carry out flow for upstream；qFortMoment reservoir
The outflow of crevasse flow is not included；
The superposition of district flood and dam bursting flood obtains lower reservoir Flood process of reservoir series in the case of considering upstream dam break；
The sub-step for having early warning, calculating without early warning operating mode reservoir level under the same starting-point detection of reservoir is controlled under flood into reservoir large sample
Suddenly, the sub-step includes：
The calculating analysis of the water level, flow of entire step composition reservoir under single flood into reservoir：
；
Wherein：B r It is wide for the river water surface；yFor the depth of water；For flow；For distance；gFor acceleration of gravity；AFor river cross-section face
Product； sFor the energy gradient,s 0For the energy gradient of initial time；
On same time shaft, entire Cascade Reservoirs are even burst and are calculated：
Wherein：y s Refer to general reservoir level；Q in (t) be t moment reservoir inbound traffics；Q 1,out(z,m) betMoment reservoir goes out
Flow；mFor discharge structure discharge coefficient；
Final reservoir level of the reservoir under the flood events is controlled to calculate：
Herein in formula variable refer in particular to control reservoir parameter；
Judge whether the sub-step on unrestrained dam：If above-mentioned final reservoir level is more than crest elevation, discharge structure failure, reservoir loses
Effect；Otherwise it does not fail；
It is whole to lead to the probability calculation sub-step that the insufficient and then unrestrained dam of bearing capacity fails because of upstream dam break：Repeat " single storage
The calculating analysis of the water level, flow of entire step composition reservoir under flood ", " on same time shaft, entire Cascade Reservoirs are even burst
Calculating ", " final reservoir level of the control reservoir under the flood events calculates " carry out final under next flood into reservoir sample
Reservoir level calculates, and calculates integral cascade multi-reservoir in extreme flood because the downstream control step that upstream dam bursting flood causes loses
The probability of effect；
The step of flood system failure probability that overflows calculates：By recorded and existing sample, Cascade Reservoirs discharge construction is calculated
The excessive big vast system failure probability of object；
The step of global failure probability calculation：By recorded and existing sample, Cascade Reservoirs flood control by dam system is calculated
Global failure probability.
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