CN109685312B - Failure risk evaluation method for silt land dam system under drainage basin secondary rainfall event - Google Patents
Failure risk evaluation method for silt land dam system under drainage basin secondary rainfall event Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating failure risk of a siltation dam system under a watershed rainfall event, which comprises the following steps: 1) Collecting data of a silt dam and data of secondary precipitation; 2) Establishing a topological relation discrimination function between the upstream and downstream of the silt dam, and numbering the silt dam step by step; 3) Establishing a dam height-reservoir capacity curve function of each silt dam, and finding out the maximum precipitation amount; 4) Simulating a rainfall; 5) Establishing a dam break judging function of the silt dam; 6) Establishing a river basin silt dam system linkage dam-break model, performing simulation, and calculating dam-break critical rainfall and dam-break sequence of each dam of the silt dam system; 7) Calculating the failure risk probability of the silt dam system; 8) Calculating the failure risk probability of the silted dam system and the accumulated failure risk probability of the silted dam system corresponding to the dam break critical rainfall, dividing a risk area, and evaluating the failure risk level of the silted dam system of the river basin according to the maximum field precipitation. The method of the invention can rapidly judge the failure risk of the silted dam by means of less data.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of evaluation of soil and water conservation engineering measures, and relates to a method for evaluating failure risk of a siltation dam system under a watershed secondary rainfall event.
Background
Loess plateau is the most serious water and soil loss area in China and even the world, and is an important area for water and soil conservation and ecological construction in China. At present, loess plateau mainly faces two ecological problems of drought, water shortage and water and soil loss. Since the establishment of new China, china implements a series of ecological construction and water and soil conservation engineering on loess plateau, and remarkable effect is achieved.
The silted-up dam is an important engineering measure in water and soil conservation measures, and is an important defense line in a river basin water and soil conservation treatment system. The silt dam can block flood and silt on site through blocking, accumulating and silt, effectively prevent water and soil loss, and can also produce soil by silt, so that the problems of serious loess high raw water and soil loss and drought and water shortage are effectively solved, the relation between ecological environment construction and local mass enrichment is organically unified, and obvious ecological benefit, social benefit and economic benefit are achieved. At present, ten thousands of silting dams in loess plateau areas play a great role in the yellow river soil erosion prevention and control process by taking the dams as units, the safety operation of the silting dams has important significance for regional soil erosion prevention and control, the research in the field has fresh achievements, and particularly the failure risk of the silting dams under the watershed secondary rainfall condition is difficult to effectively evaluate without a watershed secondary rainfall condition interlocking dam-break model.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for evaluating the failure risk of a siltation dam under a watershed secondary rainfall event, and the efficiency of rapidly judging the failure risk of the siltation dam under the watershed rainfall event is improved.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is that the dam failure risk evaluation method for the river basin under the rainfall event is implemented according to the following steps:
step 1, determining a research river basin, and collecting siltation dam data and secondary rainfall data;
step 2, establishing a topological relation discriminant function between the upstream and the downstream of the silt dam through a computer according to the collected topological relation data between the upstream and the downstream of the silt dam, wherein the discriminant criterion of the discriminant function is as follows:
if runoffs are collected into the reservoir capacity of the same foundation siltation dam A after dam break, the foundation siltation dam A is a father dam of the rest siltation dams B, the rest siltation dams B are called sub-dams, the natural numbers of the sub-dams are randomly numbered, the serial numbers of the father dams are the largest numbers of the random numbers of the natural numbers of the sub-dams, and the serial numbers of the sub-dams are increased by one step from the lowest-level branch to the dry-flow siltation dam according to the principle:
step 3, establishing a dam height-reservoir capacity curve function of each silt dam in a computer according to the collected silt dam height and reservoir capacity data, and finding out the maximum field rainfall according to the collected secondary rainfall data;
step 4, simulating a rainfall through a computer according to a random simulation method;
step 5, calculating the runoff quantity generated by rainfall between the dams and the dam height corresponding to the runoff quantity on the basis of the step 3 and the step 4 according to the collected area between the dams of the silty land, and establishing a dam break discriminant function of the silty land dam;
step 6, building a river basin silt dam system linkage dam break model on the basis of the step 5, simulating, and calculating dam break critical rainfall and dam break sequence of each dam of the silt dam system;
step 7, calculating the failure risk probability of the siltation dam according to the siltation dam storage capacity collected in the step 1, wherein the sum of all siltation dam storage capacities of the river basin is defined as the siltation dam storage capacity, and the ratio of each siltation dam storage capacity to the siltation dam storage capacity is defined as the failure risk probability of the siltation dam;
and 8, calculating the failure risk probability of the siltation dam system and the accumulated failure risk probability of the siltation dam system corresponding to the dam break critical rainfall according to the principle of probability theory, dividing the risk into a low risk area, a medium risk area and a high risk area, and evaluating the failure risk level of the siltation dam system of the river basin according to the maximum rainfall.
The evaluation method has the advantages that the data is easy to obtain, the calculation is simple and convenient, and the failure risk of the siltation dam system can be rapidly judged and classified by obtaining the data of the study basin siltation dam and the secondary rainfall.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing the dam break sequence of a Wang Mao ditch river basin silted dam in an embodiment of the method of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing the cumulative failure risk and classification result of a Wang Mao ditch silted dam in an embodiment of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings and the detailed description.
The method of the invention is implemented according to the following steps:
step 1, determining a study river basin, collecting data of a siltation dam and data of secondary rainfall,
the silt dam data comprise current situation investigation and design construction data, such as dam height, reservoir capacity, deposited reservoir capacity, inter-dam area, coordinates and upstream-downstream topological relation among silt dams;
step 2, establishing a topological relation discriminant function between the upstream and the downstream of the silt dam through a computer according to the collected topological relation data between the upstream and the downstream of the silt dam, wherein the discriminant criterion of the discriminant function is as follows:
if runoffs are collected into the reservoir capacity of the same foundation siltation dam A after dam break, the foundation siltation dam A is a father dam of the rest siltation dams B, the rest siltation dams B are called sub-dams, the natural numbers of the sub-dams are randomly numbered, the serial numbers of the father dams are the largest numbers of the random numbers of the natural numbers of the sub-dams, and the serial numbers of the sub-dams are increased by one step from the lowest-level branch to the dry-flow siltation dam according to the principle:
step 3, establishing a dam height-reservoir capacity curve function of each silt dam in a computer according to the collected silt dam height and reservoir capacity data, and finding out the maximum field rainfall according to the collected secondary rainfall data;
according to data and specific conditions, a linear function, an exponential function or a polynomial function is selected as a silt dam high-reservoir capacity curve function, and the function expression is as follows:
V＝aH+b
V＝ae H +b
V＝aH 2 +bH+c
wherein V is the storage capacity, and the unit is m 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the H is the dam height, and the unit is m; a. b and c are dimensionless parameters and are rated by actual measurement values.
Step 4, simulating a rainfall through a computer according to a random simulation method;
the random simulated rainfall uses a multiplicative congruence method, which is one of the important methods for generating random numbers, and the functional expression is as follows:
x i ＝mod(λx i-1 ,M)
(i＝1，2,...)
wherein the multiplier lambda, the modulus M and the initial value x 0 Is a selected constant; mod () is a remainder function, mod (λx i-1 M) means dividing λx by M i-1 The remainder obtained is x i ；u i Is [0,1]Uniform random number over interval, u i Multiplying by an expansion coefficient can obtain a uniform random number for a certain interval.
Step 5, calculating the runoff quantity generated by rainfall between the dams and the dam height corresponding to the runoff quantity on the basis of the step 3 and the step 4 according to the collected area between the dams of the silty land, and establishing a dam break discriminant function of the silty land (overtopping);
the calculation method of runoff quantity is that rainfall is multiplied by the area between dams and then multiplied by the runoff coefficient, namely:
W＝α*P*S
wherein W is the runoff amount, and the unit is m 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Alpha is a runoff coefficient; p is rainfall, and the unit is mm; s is the area between dams, the unit is m 2 ；
The dam break discriminating function of the silt dam is to bring the runoff between the dams into the dam height-reservoir capacity curve function to calculate the water level height, and if the water level height exceeds the dam height, the silt dam (overtopping) breaks the dam, namely:
kui＝1；(h>bg)
kui＝0；(h≤bg)
wherein kui is the dam break result, 1 is the dam break, and 0 is the non-dam break; h is the water level, and the unit is m; bg is the dam height and the unit is m.
Step 6, building a river basin silt dam system linkage dam break model on the basis of the step 5, simulating, and calculating dam break critical rainfall and dam break sequence of each dam of the silt dam system;
step 7, calculating the failure risk probability of the siltation dam according to the siltation dam storage capacity collected in the step 1, wherein the sum of all siltation dam storage capacities of the river basin is defined as the siltation dam storage capacity, and the ratio of each siltation dam storage capacity to the siltation dam storage capacity is defined as the failure risk probability of the siltation dam;
the probability expression of the failure risk of the silt dam system is as follows:
P(x≤x i )＝P(x＝x 1 )+P(x＝x 2 )+…+P(x＝x i )，i＝1,2,...,m
wherein i is the order of rainfall in a dam break critical rainfall meter, j is the number of the silt dams in the silt dam system, and n is the number of the silt dams; m is the critical rainfall number of the dam break; x is the storage capacity of each silt dam, and the unit is m 3 ；P(x＝x i ) The failure risk probability of the silt dam system corresponding to the ith dam break critical rainfall;P(x<＝x i ) Accumulating failure risk probability for the siltation dam system corresponding to the ith dam break critical rainfall;
step 8, according to the principle of probability theory, calculating the failure risk probability of the siltation dam system and the accumulated failure risk probability of the siltation dam system corresponding to the critical rainfall of the dam break, dividing the risk into three types according to the accumulated failure risk according to the specific situation of the river basin, dividing the low risk area, the medium risk area and the high risk area, evaluating the failure risk level of the siltation dam system of the river basin according to the maximum rainfall of the river basin,
according to the method for evaluating the risk classification, a rainfall-dam system cumulative failure risk map is drawn according to the calculated accumulated failure risk probability of the river basin silting dam system and the dam break critical rainfall, a first rainfall value and a last rainfall value, in which the dam system cumulative failure risk probability increases suddenly along with the increase of rainfall, are found in the probability map, the dam break critical rainfall is divided into three sections, a probability section corresponding to the first section of rainfall is a low risk area, a probability section corresponding to the second section of rainfall is a medium risk area, and a probability section corresponding to the third section of rainfall is a high risk area.
Examples:
taking the failure risk evaluation of the dam system of the ditch and land of Wang Mao of the Shaanxi province as an example, the method is implemented according to the following steps:
step 1, basic data are collected: the method comprises 2012 current investigation data and design data (dam height, reservoir capacity, deposited reservoir capacity, area between dams, coordinates, upstream and downstream topological relation between silted dams) of 17 backbone dams of Wang Maogou river basin and Wang Mao channel flow fields 1980-2000;
step 2, according to the collected data of the upstream and downstream topological relation between 17 backbone dams of the Wang Mao ditch flow field, establishing a topological relation discrimination function between the upstream and downstream of the silt dams of the Wang Mao ditch flow field in a computer through R language programming;
step 3, according to the collected data of the dam height and the reservoir capacity of 17 backbone dams of the Wang Mao ditch, establishing a linear dam height-reservoir capacity curve function of each dam in a computer through R language programming, and finding out the maximum rainfall according to the collected rainfall data;
step 4, simulating a rainfall by an R language random generator according to a random simulation method;
step 5, on the basis of the step 3 and the step 4, calculating the runoff quantity generated by rainfall between the dams and the dam height corresponding to the runoff quantity through R language programming according to the collected area between 17 backbone dams of the Wang Mao ditch flow field and the dam, and establishing a dam-break discriminant function of the flood peak of the dam;
and 6, building a river basin and land dam system linkage dam-break model through R language programming on the basis of the step 5, simulating, calculating the dam-break critical rainfall and dam-break sequence of each dam of the river basin and land dam system, and outputting the result in a txt file mode, wherein the dam-break sequence of each dam in the Wang Mao ditch and river basin and land dam system is numbered in the figure.
Step 7, calculating the failure risk probability of the siltation dam system through R language programming according to the storage capacity of the 17-seat backbone dam of the Wang Mao ditch flow field collected in the step 1,
the sum of all the storage capacities of the silting dams of the river basin is defined as the storage capacity of the silting dams, and the ratio of the storage capacity of each silting dam to the storage capacity of the silting dams is defined as the failure risk probability of the silting dams.
And 8, according to the principle of probability theory, calculating the failure probability of the silted dam system and the accumulated failure probability of the silted dam system corresponding to the dam break critical rainfall through R language programming, classifying risks, dividing a low risk area, a medium risk area and a high risk area, and evaluating the failure risk level of the silted dam system of the river basin according to the maximum field rainfall, wherein the maximum field rainfall of the Wang Mao river basin 1980-2000 is less than 471mm, and the failure risk of the silted dam system is in the low risk area.
Claims (1)
1. The method for evaluating the failure risk of the silted-up dam system under the watershed rainfall event is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, determining a research river basin, and collecting siltation dam data and secondary rainfall data;
step 2, establishing a topological relation discriminant function between the upstream and the downstream of the silt dam through a computer according to the collected topological relation data between the upstream and the downstream of the silt dam, wherein the discriminant criterion of the discriminant function is as follows:
if runoffs after dam break are converged into the storage capacity of the same foundation silt dam A, the foundation silt dam A is a father dam of the rest silt dams B, the rest silt dams B are called sub-dams, the natural numbers of the sub-dams are randomly numbered, the serial numbers of the father dams are the largest numbers of the random numbers of the natural numbers of the sub-dams, and the serial numbers of the sub-dams are increased by one step by step from the lowest-level branch to the dry-flow silt dam according to the principle;
step 3, establishing a dam height-reservoir capacity curve function of each silt dam in a computer according to the data of the height and the reservoir capacity of the silt dam, finding out the maximum field rainfall according to the collected rainfall data,
according to data and specific conditions, a linear function, an exponential function or a polynomial function is selected as a silt dam high-reservoir capacity curve function, and the function expression is as follows:
V＝aH+b
V＝ae H +b
V＝aH 2 +bH+c
wherein V is the storage capacity, and the unit is m 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the H is the dam height, and the unit is m; a. b and c are dimensionless parameters and are rated through actual measurement values;
step 4, simulating a rainfall through a computer according to a random simulation method,
the random simulated rainfall uses a multiplicative congruence method, which is one of the important methods for generating random numbers, and the functional expression is as follows:
x i ＝mod(λx i-1 ，M)
(i＝1，2，...)
wherein the multiplier lambda, the modulus M and the initial value x 0 Is a selected constant; mod () is a remainder function, mod (λx i-1 M) means dividing λx by M i-1 The remainder obtained is x i ；u i Is [0,1]Uniform random number over interval, u i Multiplying an expansion coefficient to obtain a uniform random number in a certain interval;
step 5, calculating the runoff quantity generated by rainfall between the dams and the dam height corresponding to the runoff quantity according to the collected area between the dams of the silt land, and establishing a dam break discriminant function of the dam of the silt land,
the calculation method of runoff quantity is that rainfall is multiplied by the area between dams and then multiplied by the runoff coefficient, namely: w=α×p×s
Wherein W is the runoff amount, and the unit is m 3 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the a is a runoff coefficient; p is rainfall, and the unit is mm; s is the area between dams, the unit is m 2 ；
The dam break discriminating function of the silt dam is to bring the runoff between the dams into the dam height-reservoir capacity curve function to calculate the water level height, and if the water level height exceeds the dam height, the silt dam breaks, namely:
kui＝1；(h＞bg)
kui＝0；(h≤bg)
wherein kui is the dam break result, 1 is the dam break, and 0 is the non-dam break; h is the water level, and the unit is m; bg is the dam height and the unit is m;
step 6, establishing a river basin silt dam system linkage dam break model, simulating, and calculating dam break critical rainfall and dam break sequence of each dam of the silt dam system;
step 7, calculating the failure risk probability of the siltation dam according to the siltation dam storage capacity, defining the sum of all siltation dam storage capacities of the river basin as the siltation dam storage capacity, defining the ratio of each siltation dam storage capacity to the siltation dam storage capacity as the failure risk probability of the siltation dam,
the probability expression of the failure risk of the silt dam system is as follows:
P(x≤x i )＝P(x＝x 1 )+P(x＝x 2 )+…+P(x＝x i )，i＝1，2，...，m
wherein i is the order of rainfall in a dam break critical rainfall meter, j is the number of the silt dams in the silt dam system, and n is the number of the silt dams; m is the critical rainfall number of the dam break; x is the storage capacity of each silt dam, and the unit is m 3 ；P(x＝x i ) The failure risk probability of the silt dam system corresponding to the ith dam break critical rainfall; p (x < = x) i ) Accumulating failure risk probability for the siltation dam system corresponding to the ith dam break critical rainfall;
step 8, calculating the failure risk probability of the silty land dam system and the accumulated failure risk probability of the silty land dam system corresponding to the critical rainfall of the dam break according to the step 3, the step 6 and the step 7, dividing the risk into three types according to the size of the accumulated failure risk probability in combination with the specific situation of the river basin, dividing the low risk area, the medium risk area and the high risk area, evaluating the failure risk level of the silty land dam system of the river basin according to the maximum rainfall of the river basin,
according to the method for evaluating the risk classification, a rainfall-dam system cumulative failure risk map is drawn according to the calculated accumulated failure risk probability of the river basin silting dam system and the dam break critical rainfall, a first rainfall value and a last rainfall value, in which the dam system cumulative failure risk probability increases suddenly along with the increase of rainfall, are found in the probability map, the dam break critical rainfall is divided into three sections, a probability section corresponding to the first section of rainfall is a low risk area, a probability section corresponding to the second section of rainfall is a medium risk area, and a probability section corresponding to the third section of rainfall is a high risk area.
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