CN107330542A - A kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale - Google Patents
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Abstract
A kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale, the method first sets up T-D tariff Calculating model according to the electric grid investment scale and electricity of setting, sensitivity analysis model and multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model are set up on the basis of T-D tariff Calculating model again, then Investment Optimization Model is set up on the basis of sensitivity analysis and multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model, finally determines rational electric grid investment scale.The design can realize the science to electric grid investment scale, reasonable, effective optimization.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to Power System Planning technical field, and in particular to the method for a kind of point of optimization electric grid investment scale,
To adapt to the new demand of T-D tariff reform, realize electric grid investment Scale Scientific, rationally, effectively optimize.
Background technology
On November 4th, 2014, National Development and Reform Committee issues《Carry out the notice of T-D tariff pilot reform on Shenzhen》, mark
The T-D tariff reform of Zhi Zhe China is formal to be started.In April, 2015, National Development and Reform Committee's dispatch, clearly by Hubei, Anhui, Ningxia, cloud
Nan Si includes provinces and regions new a collection of T-D tariff pilot reform, and is formally appraised and decided at the beginning of 2016, given an written reply 2016-2018 Hubei
Save T-D tariff.T-D tariff reform will produce material impact, after reform, power grid enterprises' power network to the investment behavior of power grid enterprises
Investment can not be determined completely by enterprise oneself, must by relevant government department strict supervision.Power grid construction needs great number to put into,
But it is difficult to the simultaneous growth for bringing electricity sales amount, and T-D tariff is strictly controlled, power grid enterprises' development, operation are faced with sky
Preceding severe risk.Therefore, power grid enterprises should be deep in the case where taking into full account T-D tariff constraint and electrity market constraint
Enter to analyze power grid enterprises' investment capacity, make great efforts optimization power network development target and scale of investment, make investment rate and electricity consumption city
The growth rate of field is adapted, specific highly important meaning.
Domestic power grid enterprises' generally existing Electric Power Network Planning " weight technology, light economic ", electric grid investment " weight demand, light electricity price "
Tendency, so not yet finding the electric grid investment optimization method with preferable practical value.Particularly China's T-D tariff reform is firm
Ground zero, is in pilot phase, the policy of relevant T-D tariff reform, method also it is continuous explore, improve during, institute
In the method for the optimization electric grid investment scale that not can adapt to T-D tariff reform new demand also domestic at present.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the present invention be under T-D tariff reform background, overcome prior art exist without forensic science, rationally it is excellent
There is provided a kind of method of scientific and reasonable, effective point optimization electric grid investment scale for the problem of changing electric grid investment.
To realize object above, technical scheme is as follows：
A kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale, comprises the following steps successively：
Step 1, set up according to the electric grid investment scale and electricity of setting point that electric grid investment scale influences on T-D tariff
It is T-D tariff Calculating model to analyse model, wherein, the T-D tariff Calculating model includes power network efficient portfolio predicting unit, standard
Perhaps forecasting of cost unit, allowance earnings forecast unit, tax predicting unit, allowance income forecast unit, T-D tariff prediction are single
Member；
Step 2, on the basis of T-D tariff Calculating model, choose suitable variable element and set up sensitivity analysis model
Sensitivity analysis is carried out, and chooses suitable variable element setting up the progress multi-scheme comparison of multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model；
Step 3, elder generation set up Investment Optimization Model to carry out investment optimization analysis, then according to throwing according to the result of step 2
Money optimization analysis result determines rational electric grid investment scale.
In step 3, the investment optimization analysis uses following methods：
The T-D tariff Calculating model first set up according to step 1 calculates the averagely T-D tariff containing tax in the supervision phase, then
Using its price differential value with the target averagely T-D tariff containing tax of setting as desired value, using price differential value as zero as constraints,
The value for the variable element selected under the constraints is calculated with iterative calculation method.
In step 3, the investment optimization analysis comprises the following steps successively：
Step 3-1, setup algorithm year be t, calculating cycle j=1, each supervision cycle be m (m >=1) years, supervision periodicity
For the variable element k=0 selected in Z (Z >=1), step 2；
Step 3-2, first according to step 1 set up T-D tariff Calculating model calculate first supervision the cycle averagely contain tax
T-D tariff, then calculates the average T-D tariff containing tax and the target averagely power transmission and distribution containing tax in first supervision cycle of setting
The price differential value of valency, if price differential value is zero, using k value of the k values now as after optimizing；If price differential value is not zero, uses and change
K values are adjusted for computational methods, until price differential value is zero, the k values after the as optimization of k values now；
Step 3-3, k values are first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+m, calculating cycle j=2, is built further according to step 1
Vertical T-D tariff Calculating model calculates the averagely T-D tariff containing tax in second supervision cycle, then calculates this averagely defeated containing tax
Price differential value with electricity price with the target averagely T-D tariff containing tax in second supervision cycle of setting, if price differential value is zero, with
K values now are used as the k values after optimization；If price differential value is not zero, k values are adjusted using iterative calculation method, until price differential value
It is zero, the k values after the as optimization of k values now；
Step 3-4, k values are first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+2m, calculating cycle j=3, the like, until
J=Z, obtains the k values after each supervision cycle optimization.
In step 2, it is described set up sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis comprise the following steps successively：
Step 2-1-1, to analysis the time, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating carry out initial setting up；
Step 2-1-2, set analysis indexes for sensitivity analysis, and examined and made cuts rate, newly-increased electricity from storage fixed assets
Net investment rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure average annual growth rate, reception user assets, wage welfare
Average annual growth rate, electricity sales amount speedup change, fixed assets turn then solid ratio, fee of material average annual growth rate, price for repairing average annual growth rate, its
Chosen in his expense average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation these variable elements for sensitivity analysis
Variable element and set its variation tendency, step-length and excursion, to form sensitivity analysis model, wherein, it is described to be used for
The analysis indexes of sensitivity analysis include average T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, can count and carry the power network of income and effectively provide
Production, allowance cost, allowance income, the allowance containing tax are taken in；
Step 2-1-3, first the use sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis, then according to sensitivity analysis knot
Analysis indexes and variable element that fruit selection needs, finally draw the variable element to the sensitivity analysis charts of analysis indexes i.e.
Can.
In step 2, the multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model progress multi-scheme of setting up comprises the following steps more successively：
Step 2-2-1, to analysis the time, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating carry out initial setting up；
Step 2-2-2, set analysis indexes for multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis, and examined and made cuts rate, new from storage fixed assets
Increase electric grid investment rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure average annual growth rate, receive user's assets, wage
Welfare average annual growth rate, the change of electricity sales amount speedup, fixed assets turn solid ratio, fee of material average annual growth rate, price for repairing and increased every year then
Chosen in speed, other fees average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation these variable elements for multi-scheme
The variable element of sunykatuib analysis simultaneously sets its variation tendency, step-length and excursion, to form multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model, its
In, the analysis indexes by multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis include averagely T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, can based on put forward receipts
The power network efficient portfolio of benefit, allowance cost, allowance income, the allowance containing tax are taken in；
Step 2-2-3, first the use multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model carry out multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis, then according to multi-party
Analysis indexes and variable element that the selection of case sunykatuib analysis result needs, and the effective range of the analysis indexes is set, formed many
Program simulation analytical table.
In step 1,
The power network efficient portfolio predicting unit includes net fixed assets prediction module, current assets prediction module, nothing
Shape assets prediction module, the power network efficient portfolio prediction module for putting forward income can be counted；
The allowance forecasting of cost unit includes fee of material prediction module, price for repairing prediction module, workers' pay prediction mould
Block, other fees prediction module；
The allowance earnings forecast unit, which includes weighted average return on capital prediction module, authority cost profit rate, to be predicted
Module, debt capital earning rate prediction module, asset-liability ratio prediction module.
Compared with prior art, beneficial effects of the present invention are：
The method of a kind of point of optimization electric grid investment scale of the present invention is first set up according to the electric grid investment scale and electricity of setting
T-D tariff Calculating model, then sensitivity analysis and multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis are carried out on its basis, then according to analysis result
Investment Optimization Model is set up to carry out investment optimization analysis, rational electric grid investment scale is finally determined, first, T-D tariff is surveyed
Calculate model set up can quantitative analysis electric grid investment scale influence of the change to T-D tariff ups and downs；Secondly, sensitivity analysis
Contribute to policymaker to accurately hold sensible factor and its variation tendency, improve the specific aim of decision-making, multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis is helped
In search to the preferred plan under setting the goal, its sunykatuib analysis conclusion is available for policymaker to be referred to, and improves the accuracy of decision-making；
Furthermore, setting up Investment Optimization Model can help power grid enterprises to determine rational scale of investment, and foundation is provided for its investment decision,
This method can not only adapt to T-D tariff reform new demand, and be conceived to the operation reality of power grid enterprises, scientific and reasonable, energy
Enough realize effective optimization of electric grid investment scale.Therefore, the inventive method realize science to electric grid investment scale, rationally,
Effective optimization.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is sensitiveness of the newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change in the embodiment of the present invention 1 on the average influence of T-D tariff containing tax
Analyze chart.
Fig. 2 is sensitivity analysis of the electricity sales amount speedup change on the average influence of T-D tariff containing tax in the embodiment of the present invention 1
Chart.
Fig. 3 is the optimization analysis process figure of newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change in the embodiment of the present invention 1.
Fig. 4 is the optimization analysis process figure of electricity sales amount speedup change in the embodiment of the present invention 1.
Embodiment
With reference to embodiment, the present invention is further detailed explanation.
A kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale, comprises the following steps successively：
Step 1, set up according to the electric grid investment scale and electricity of setting point that electric grid investment scale influences on T-D tariff
It is T-D tariff Calculating model to analyse model, wherein, the T-D tariff Calculating model includes power network efficient portfolio predicting unit, standard
Perhaps forecasting of cost unit, allowance earnings forecast unit, tax predicting unit, allowance income forecast unit, T-D tariff prediction are single
Member；
Step 2, on the basis of T-D tariff Calculating model, choose suitable variable element and set up sensitivity analysis model
Sensitivity analysis is carried out, and chooses suitable variable element setting up the progress multi-scheme comparison of multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model；
Step 3, elder generation set up Investment Optimization Model to carry out investment optimization analysis, then according to throwing according to the result of step 2
Money optimization analysis result determines rational electric grid investment scale.
In step 3, the investment optimization analysis uses following methods：
The T-D tariff Calculating model first set up according to step 1 calculates the averagely T-D tariff containing tax in the supervision phase, then
Using its price differential value with the target averagely T-D tariff containing tax of setting as desired value, using price differential value as zero as constraints,
The value for the variable element selected under the constraints is calculated with iterative calculation method.
In step 3, the investment optimization analysis comprises the following steps successively：
Step 3-1, setup algorithm year be t, calculating cycle j=1, each supervision cycle be m (m >=1) years, supervision periodicity
For the variable element k=0 selected in Z (Z >=1), step 2；
Step 3-2, first according to step 1 set up T-D tariff Calculating model calculate first supervision the cycle averagely contain tax
T-D tariff, then calculates the average T-D tariff containing tax and the target averagely power transmission and distribution containing tax in first supervision cycle of setting
The price differential value of valency, if price differential value is zero, using k value of the k values now as after optimizing；If price differential value is not zero, uses and change
K values are adjusted for computational methods, until price differential value is zero, the k values after the as optimization of k values now；
Step 3-3, k values are first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+m, calculating cycle j=2, is built further according to step 1
Vertical T-D tariff Calculating model calculates the averagely T-D tariff containing tax in second supervision cycle, then calculates this averagely defeated containing tax
Price differential value with electricity price with the target averagely T-D tariff containing tax in second supervision cycle of setting, if price differential value is zero, with
K values now are used as the k values after optimization；If price differential value is not zero, k values are adjusted using iterative calculation method, until price differential value
It is zero, the k values after the as optimization of k values now；
Step 3-4, k values are first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+2m, calculating cycle j=3, the like, until
J=Z, obtains the k values after each supervision cycle optimization.
In step 2, it is described set up sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis comprise the following steps successively：
Step 2-1-1, to analysis the time, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating carry out initial setting up；
Step 2-1-2, set analysis indexes for sensitivity analysis, and examined and made cuts rate, newly-increased electricity from storage fixed assets
Net investment rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure average annual growth rate, reception user assets, wage welfare
Average annual growth rate, electricity sales amount speedup change, fixed assets turn then solid ratio, fee of material average annual growth rate, price for repairing average annual growth rate, its
Chosen in his expense average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation these variable elements for sensitivity analysis
Variable element and set its variation tendency, step-length and excursion, to form sensitivity analysis model, wherein, it is described to be used for
The analysis indexes of sensitivity analysis include average T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, can count and carry the power network of income and effectively provide
Production, allowance cost, allowance income, the allowance containing tax are taken in；
Step 2-1-3, first the use sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis, then according to sensitivity analysis knot
Analysis indexes and variable element that fruit selection needs, finally draw the variable element to the sensitivity analysis charts of analysis indexes i.e.
Can.
In step 2, the multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model progress multi-scheme of setting up comprises the following steps more successively：
Step 2-2-1, to analysis the time, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating carry out initial setting up；
Step 2-2-2, set analysis indexes for multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis, and examined and made cuts rate, new from storage fixed assets
Increase electric grid investment rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure average annual growth rate, receive user's assets, wage
Welfare average annual growth rate, the change of electricity sales amount speedup, fixed assets turn solid ratio, fee of material average annual growth rate, price for repairing and increased every year then
Chosen in speed, other fees average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation these variable elements for multi-scheme
The variable element of sunykatuib analysis simultaneously sets its variation tendency, step-length and excursion, to form multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model, its
In, the analysis indexes by multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis include averagely T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, can based on put forward receipts
The power network efficient portfolio of benefit, allowance cost, allowance income, the allowance containing tax are taken in；
Step 2-2-3, first the use multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model carry out multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis, then according to multi-party
Analysis indexes and variable element that the selection of case sunykatuib analysis result needs, and the effective range of the analysis indexes is set, formed many
Program simulation analytical table.
In step 1,
The power network efficient portfolio predicting unit includes net fixed assets prediction module, current assets prediction module, nothing
Shape assets prediction module, the power network efficient portfolio prediction module for putting forward income can be counted；
The allowance forecasting of cost unit includes fee of material prediction module, price for repairing prediction module, workers' pay prediction mould
Block, other fees prediction module；
The allowance earnings forecast unit, which includes weighted average return on capital prediction module, authority cost profit rate, to be predicted
Module, debt capital earning rate prediction module, asset-liability ratio prediction module.
The principle of the present invention is described as follows：
Step 2：
Step 2 of the present invention is mainly used in analyzing the influence factor of T-D tariff, and carries out multi-scheme and compare, wherein,
The sensitivity analysis is mainly used in studying influence of the single variable element change to analysis indexes, analysis indexes pair
The sensitivity of each variable element, finds out sensible factor；The change that analysis indexes change with each variable element is can be used for become
Gesture.Carry out sensitivity analysis, policymaker can be made to fully understand each variable element independent role to the crucial results of measuring of T-D tariff
Influence, contribute to policymaker to accurately hold sensible factor and its variation tendency, improve the specific aim of decision-making；
The multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis is mainly used in analyzing influence of multiple variable element combination changes to analysis indexes.Open
Multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis is opened up, the interphase interaction that policymaker accurately holds each variable element can be made to tie T-D tariff key measuring and calculating
The influence of fruit, contributes to search to the preferred plan under setting the goal, its sunykatuib analysis conclusion can be as decision-making foundation, for policymaker
Referred to, improve the accuracy of decision-making.
Step 3：
The step pushes away electric grid investment scale using investment optimization analytic approach according to the T-D tariff of setting is counter, to determine to close
The electric grid investment scale of reason.
Embodiment 1：
A kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale, is followed the steps below successively：
Step 1, according in November, 2014 issue《Shenzhen's T-D tariff pilot reform scheme》Printed and distributed with June, 2015
's《Power transmission and distribution cosxts involved in determining price supervision and examination method (tentative)》(hereinafter referred to as "《Pilot scheme》”、“《Method》"), according to the electricity of setting
Net scale of investment and electricity set up the analysis model i.e. T-D tariff Calculating model that electric grid investment scale influences on T-D tariff, its
In, the fundamental formular of measuring and calculating T-D tariff has：1. T-D tariff=allowance income ÷ transmission ＆ distribution electricity, 2. permits income=permit into
Sheet+allowance income+tax, the T-D tariff Calculating model includes：
1st, power network efficient portfolio predicting unit, including：
(1) net fixed assets prediction module
End of term net fixed assets=this year appraises and decides original value of fixed assets-accumulated depreciation=last year and appraises and decides original value of fixed assets
+ this year newly-increased fixed assets+reception transfers assets-accumulated depreciation；
Investment in fixed assets includes power grid construction, production technological transformation, other special (capital), the class of small-sized capital expenditure four,
From the point of view of the pilot situation of Shenzhen, during efficient portfolio is appraised and decided, regulator is to following investment scale of fixed assets and deposits
Amount assets are examined and made cuts, and the assets unrelated with power transmission and distribution business do not allow to include efficient portfolio, therefore, in modeling to new
The rate of examining and making cuts for increasing investment in fixed assets and storage fixed assets carries out parameter setting.
Consider if newly-increased fixed assets turn solid rate then by X%, this year newly-increased fixed assets=last year increases fixed assets newly
Production × X%+ this year newly-increased fixed assets × (1-X%)；
Depreciation cost is linked up with original value of fixed assets, can be calculated according to composite depreciation rate, i.e. depreciation cost=the end of last year is appraised and decided
Original value of fixed assets × this year composite depreciation rate.Composite depreciation rate belongs to variable element in a model, storage fixed assets and newly-increased
Fixed assets are in calculating and distilling depreciation, and the selection of composite depreciation rate should also be treated with a certain discrimination.Such as basis《Method》Regulation, 2015 1
The power transmission and distribution fixed assets that the moon is previously formed on the 1st, depreciation rate is true according to depreciable life intermediate value as defined in State Grid Corporation of China
It is fixed, on January 1st, 2015 and later newly-increased power transmission and distribution fixed assets, according to《Method》Defined power grid enterprises' fixed assets point
Class price depreciable life determination, respectively 8.8% and 5.0%, salvage value of fixed assets rate is determined by 5%.Storage fixed assets meter
When proposing depreciation, the fixed assets for having proposed sufficient depreciation should be deducted.
(2) current assets prediction module
Current assets are linked up with power supply cost, this year current assets=last year current assets × this year power supply cost/last year
Power supply cost.
(3) intangible asset prediction module
Assuming that intangible asset is increased in time span of forecast by setting growth rate.
Intangible asset=last year intangible asset × (1+ this year intangible assets growth rate).
(4) the power network efficient portfolio prediction module for putting forward income can be counted
According to pilot scheme, the assets that user or local government gratuitously transfer can count deduction originally, can not count and put forward income；
It can count and carry power network efficient portfolio=end of term power network efficient portfolio of income-accumulative and transfer assets, wherein,
It can count and carry the efficient portfolio of income and refer to invest effective money formed, that investment return can be obtained by power grid enterprises
Production, user or the local government assets that gratuitously the non-grid enterprise investment such as transfer is formed, disregard and carry investment return；
Efficient portfolio=end of term net fixed assets+current assets+intangible asset.
2nd, forecasting of cost unit is permitted
Permit cost=depreciation cost+fee of material+price for repairing+workers' pay+other fees；
Permitting cost mainly includes depreciation cost, operation maintenance expense, wherein, depreciation cost is appraised and decided according to the competent pricing department of the government
Power transmission and distribution original value of fixed assets and depreciation rate appraise and decide, specific algorithm and points for attention above have been mentioned, and repeat no more.
Operation maintenance expense includes fee of material, price for repairing, workers' pay and other fees, and historical cost number is combined by governmental price department
According to the requirement of, cost supervision, subitem determines the cosxts involved in determining price upper limit of general expenses.
Permitting forecasting of cost unit includes,
Fee of material prediction module：
According to《Method》It is required that, fee of material is appraised and decided by first three annual mean after unreasonable factor is rejected during supervision and examination；
Supervision and examination phase each year fee of material=supervision and examination phase the first three years fee of material average value；
This year fee of material=last year fee of material × this year original value of fixed assets/last year original value of fixed assets.
Price for repairing prediction module：
According to《Method》It is required that, price for repairing is appraised and decided by first three annual mean after unreasonable factor is rejected during supervision and examination, future
Put aside growth.Because price for repairing should also increased with the growth of original value of fixed assets；
Supervision and examination phase each year price for repairing=supervision and examination phase the first three years price for repairing average value；
This year price for repairing=last year price for repairing × this year original value of fixed assets/last year original value of fixed assets.
Workers' pay prediction module：
According to《Method》It is required that, workers' pay includes salary appropriate to a special post, social insurance premiums, employee welfare cost, wage and adds, rolls into a ball
Know from experience expense, dismiss welfare, activity of the Party and the League funds, public accumalation fund for housing construction etc., the previous year is actual when supervision phase workers' pay is with reference to supervision and examination
The payroll of generation is appraised and decided, i.e. future puts aside growth；
Supervision and examination phase each year workers' pay=supervision and examination phase the previous year payroll；
This year workers' pay=last year workers' pay × (1+ this year workers' pays growth rate).
Other fees prediction module：
According to《Method》It is required that, other fees reject first three annual mean core after unreasonable factor when pressing supervision and examination in principle
It is fixed, wherein, the nonproductive property such as meeting expense, travel charge, administrative expenses, advertising and general publicity expenses, business entertainment, management for infrastructure fee is taken
With by the minimum time level determination rejected after unreasonable factor.
Supervision and examination phase each year other fees=(the supervision and examination phase the first three years other fees sum-supervision and examination phase nonproductive property of the first three years
Expense sum)/nonproductive property expense the minimum value of 3+ supervision and examination phase the first three years
Other fees composition is more complicated, can be divided into four classes：One is the expense relevant with Employee population, including：Administrative expenses,
Travel charge, labour protection expense, heating fee, charges for water and electricity etc..Two be the expense relevant with income from sales.Including：It is business entertainment, wide
Accuse publicity expense, research and development expenses, tax etc..Three be the expense relevant with assets value.Including：Protection of electric power facility takes, property
Administration fee, premiums for property insurance, intermediary fee etc..Four be other, including the other fees beyond first three class.In multi-scheme simulation model
In, by standard year other fees, four classes are decomposed more than, are synchronously changed with correlative factor per class expense, the 4th class expense is false
If constant, i.e.,
Expense × (1+ this year Employee population growth rate)+last year relevant with Employee population other fees=last year and sale
Income relevant expense × (this annual sales revenue of 1+ growth rate)+last year expense × (1+ this year fixed assets relevant with assets
Initial value growth rate)+last year other
3rd, earnings forecast unit is permitted
Allowance income=efficient portfolio × weighted average the return on capital for putting forward income can be counted；
Including：
Weighted average return on capital prediction module：
Weighted average return on capital=authority cost profit rate × (1- asset-liability ratios)+debt capital earning rate ×
Asset-liability ratio.
Authority cost profit rate prediction module：
According to《Pilot scheme》Regulation, authority cost profit rate is with reference to supervision cycle initial year the first three years average, long term national debt
Interest rate adds 1-3 percentage points of investment opportunity to lose determination.From the point of view of the pilot situation of Shenzhen, government appraise and decide permit income when simultaneously
Do not allow the investment opportunity loss of 1-3 percentage points of increase, 2013-2015 treasury bonds interest rate comes compared to current interest rate level
See also higher, therefore, in multi-scheme simulation model, authority cost profit rate can be as variable element, in first three annual mean
On the basis of increase or decrease some percentage points.
Supervision and examination phase each year authority cost profit rate=supervision and examination phase the first three years treasury bond interest rate average value ± several percentages
Point.
Debt capital earning rate prediction module：
According to《Pilot scheme》Regulation, debt capital earning rate is with reference to supervision first three annual domestic commerce of initial year in cycle
Bank's 5 term above loan interest rate level is determined, it is considered to which recent Central Bank continuous several times drop interests, and 2013-2015 business banks borrow
Money interest rate is higher compared to current level, and therefore, in multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model, debt capital earning rate also can be as variable
Parameter, reduces some percentage points on the basis of first three annual mean.
Supervision and examination phase each year debt capital earning rate=supervision and examination phase the first three years commercial bank loans interest rate average value-several hundred
Branch.
Asset-liability ratio prediction module：
According to《Pilot scheme》Regulation, asset-liability ratio is with reference to supervision cycle initial year the first three years power grid enterprises asset-liabilities
The average value of rate is determined；
Asset-liability ratio=Total Liabilities/assets amount to × 100%；
Supervision and examination phase each year asset-liability ratio=supervision and examination phase the first three years asset-liability ratio average value.
4th, tax predicting unit
Tax includes enterprise income tax, Tax for maintaining and building cities, educational expenses.Income tax is by allowance income profit part
25% income tax rate meter carry, city planning tax and educational expenses are carried based on 1.7% tax rate for permitting income.
Allowance income profit part=end of term last year power network efficient portfolio × cost of equity capital × (1- asset-liability ratios)/
(1- income tax rates)；
Income tax=allowance income profit part × income tax rate；
City planning tax and educational expenses=allowance income × city planning tax and the educational expenses tax rate.
5th, income forecast unit is permitted
On the basis of above-mentioned allowance cost, allowance income, tax predicting unit, set up and permit income forecast unit；
Permit income=allowance cost+allowance income+tax without tax；
Permit taking in=without tax permitting containing tax taking in × (1+ value-added tax rates)；
6th, T-D tariff predicting unit
T-D tariff (being free of line loss)=permit income ÷ electricity sales amounts；
Electricity sales amount=last year electricity sales amount × (1+ electricity sales amounts speedup)；
In view of government when giving an written reply T-D tariff, each average annual use one price level in the supervision cycle, thus we
The need for average T-D tariff will also be calculated to meet process of actually verifying prices；
Average T-D tariff=supervision and examination phase in each year permits income sum/supervision and examination phase each year electricity sales amount sum.
Step 2,
Step 2-1, the suitable variable element of the selection set up sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis successively by
Carried out according to following steps：
Step 2-1-1, to analysis 2016 times, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating initially set
Put, wherein, the basic data includes asset-liability ratio, current assets, intangible asset, depreciation cost etc., the basic scene point
For preset parameter and the basic scene of variable element, preset parameter include capital ratio, cost of equity capital, debt capital into
Income asset-liability ratio, city planning tax and the educational expenses tax rate, value-added tax rate, variable element are permitted in sheet, income tax rate, calculating
Examined and made cuts rate, newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure including storage fixed assets
Average annual growth rate, reception user assets, wage welfare average annual growth rate, the change of electricity sales amount speedup, fixed assets turn solid ratio, material then
Material takes average annual growth rate, price for repairing average annual growth rate, other fees average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation；
Step 2-1-2, analysis indexes for sensitivity analysis are set, and choose from above-mentioned variable element newly-increased power network
Investment rate of change and electricity sales amount speedup, which become, to be turned to the variable element for sensitivity analysis and sets its variation tendency as in base
Increased or decreased in plinth value, step-length is that 1%, excursion is 2%, to form sensitivity analysis model, wherein, it is described for quick
The analysis indexes of perceptual analysis include average T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, can count carry income power network efficient portfolio,
Permit cost, permit income, permit taking in containing tax；
Step 2-1-3, first the use sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis, then according to sensitivity analysis knot
Fruit selection analysis index " averagely T-D tariff containing tax " and variable element " newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change ", draw newly-increased power network and throw
Sensitivity analysis chart (referring to Fig. 1) of the rate of change on the average influence of T-D tariff containing tax is provided, and selection analysis index " averagely contains
Tax T-D tariff " and variable element " change of electricity sales amount speedup ", draw the change of electricity sales amount speedup to averagely T-D tariff containing tax shadow
Loud sensitivity analysis chart (referring to Fig. 2)；
Step 2-2, choose suitable variable element set up multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model carry out multi-scheme more successively by
Carried out according to following steps：
Step 2-2-1, to analysis 2016 times, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating initially set
Put, wherein, the basic data includes asset-liability ratio, current assets, intangible asset, depreciation cost etc., the basic scene point
For preset parameter and the basic scene of variable element, preset parameter include capital ratio, cost of equity capital, debt capital into
Income asset-liability ratio, city planning tax and the educational expenses tax rate, value-added tax rate, variable element are permitted in sheet, income tax rate, calculating
Examined and made cuts rate, newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure including storage fixed assets
Average annual growth rate, reception user assets, wage welfare average annual growth rate, the change of electricity sales amount speedup, fixed assets turn solid ratio, material then
Material takes average annual growth rate, price for repairing average annual growth rate, other fees average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation；
Step 2-2-2, analysis indexes for multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis are set, and choose newly-increased from above-mentioned variable element
Electric grid investment rate of change, the change of electricity sales amount speedup and other fees average annual growth rate are used as the variable ginseng for multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis
Count and set its variation tendency to increase or decrease (other fees average annual growth rate is to increase in basic value), step in basic value
A length of 1%, excursion is 2%, to form multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model, wherein, it is described for multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis
Analysis indexes include average T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, can count carry the power network efficient portfolio of income, permit cost,
Permit income, permit taking in containing tax；
Step 2-2-3, first the use multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model carry out multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis, then according to multi-party
Case sunykatuib analysis result selection analysis index " averagely T-D tariff containing tax ", variable element " newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change " and
" change of electricity sales amount speedup ", and to 240 yuan/1,000 when setting the effective range of the average T-D tariff containing tax for 200 yuan/megawatt
Watt-hour, forms multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis table；
Step 3, elder generation set up Investment Optimization Model to carry out investment optimization analysis, then according to throwing according to the result of step 2
Money optimization analysis result determines rational electric grid investment scale, wherein, the investment optimization analysis comprises the following steps：
Step 3-1, referring to Fig. 3, increase the optimization analysis of electric grid investment rate of change newly, be specially：
Step 3-1-1, setup algorithm year be t, calculating cycle j=1, each supervision cycle be m (m >=1) years, supervision cycle
Number is that Z (Z >=1), newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change are 0；
Step 3-1-2, the T-D tariff Calculating model first set up according to step 1 calculate being averaged in first supervision cycle
T-D tariff containing tax, then calculates the average T-D tariff containing tax and the average power transmission and distribution of target in first supervision cycle of setting
Valency (be set as 235,237.4 and 237.945 yuan/megawatt when, electricity sales amount speedup excursion is set as -1.5%, -1%, 0,
1% and price differential value 2%), if price differential value is zero, the newly-increased electricity after optimization is used as using newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change now
Net investment rate of change；If price differential value is not zero, using the newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change of iterative calculation method adjustment, until price differential
Value is zero, and newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change now is the newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change after optimization；
Step 3-1-3, newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+m, calculating cycle j
=2, the averagely T-D tariff containing tax in second supervision cycle is calculated further according to the T-D tariff Calculating model that step 1 is set up, so
The price differential value of the average T-D tariff containing tax and the average T-D tariff of target in second supervision cycle of setting is calculated afterwards, if valency
Difference is zero, then is used as the newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change after optimization using newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change now；If price differential value
Be not zero, then using the newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change of iterative calculation method adjustment, until price differential value is zero, newly-increased power network now
Investment rate of change is the newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change after optimization；
Step 3-1-4, newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change resets to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+2m, calculating cycle j=
3, the like, until j=Z, obtains the newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change after each supervision cycle optimization, as a result referring to following table：
Step 3-2, referring to Fig. 4, the optimization analysis of electricity sales amount speedup change is specially：
Step 3-2-1, setup algorithm year be t, calculating cycle j=1, each supervision cycle be m (m >=1) years, supervision cycle
Number is Z (Z >=1), the change of electricity sales amount speedup turns to 0；
Step 3-1-2, the T-D tariff Calculating model first set up according to step 1 calculate being averaged in first supervision cycle
T-D tariff containing tax, then calculates the average T-D tariff containing tax and the average power transmission and distribution of target in first supervision cycle of setting
Valency (be set as 235,237.4 and 237.945 yuan/megawatt when, newly-increased electric grid investment rate of change is set as 0,10%, 20%,
30% and price differential value 40%), if price differential value is zero, the newly-increased power network being turned to after optimization is become with electricity sales amount speedup now
Invest rate of change；If price differential value is not zero, using iterative calculation method adjustment electricity sales amount speedup change, until price differential value is
Zero, the electricity sales amount speedup change after electricity sales amount speedup change as optimization now；
Step 3-1-3, the change of electricity sales amount speedup first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+m, calculating cycle j=2,
The averagely T-D tariff containing tax in second supervision cycle, Ran Houji are calculated further according to the T-D tariff Calculating model that step 1 is set up
The price differential value of the average T-D tariff containing tax and the average T-D tariff of target in second supervision cycle of setting is calculated, if price differential value
It is zero, then becomes the electricity sales amount speedup being turned to after optimization with electricity sales amount speedup now and change；If price differential value is not zero, use
Iterative calculation method adjustment electricity sales amount speedup change, until price differential value is zero, electricity sales amount speedup change now is after optimizing
Electricity sales amount speedup change；
Step 3-1-4, the change of electricity sales amount speedup reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+2m, calculating cycle j=3, according to
It is secondary to analogize, until j=Z, obtains the electricity sales amount speedup change after each supervision cycle optimization, as a result referring to following table：
To verify the validity of the inventive method, power grid enterprises for now obtaining the inventive method 2016~2018
Averagely the predicted value of T-D tariff containing tax is compared with reply value, as a result see the table below：
From upper table, it can be seen that the predicted value and the deviation of reply value that are obtained using the inventive method are only 0.000545
Member/kilowatt hour, the result shows that the inventive method is scientific and reasonable, and the operation for substantially conforming to power grid enterprises is actual, can be than calibrated
Really predict the T-D tariff in power grid enterprises' supervision phase.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale, it is characterised in that：
This method comprises the following steps successively：
Step 1, the analysis mould that electric grid investment scale influences on T-D tariff is set up according to the electric grid investment scale and electricity of setting
Type is T-D tariff Calculating model, wherein, the T-D tariff Calculating model includes power network efficient portfolio predicting unit, permitted into
This predicting unit, allowance earnings forecast unit, tax predicting unit, allowance income forecast unit, T-D tariff predicting unit；
Step 2, on the basis of T-D tariff Calculating model, choose suitable variable element and set up the progress of sensitivity analysis model
Sensitivity analysis, and choose suitable variable element set up multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model carry out multi-scheme comparison；
Step 3, Investment Optimization Model first set up according to the result of step 2 to carry out investment optimization analysis, it is then excellent according to investing
Change analysis result and determine rational electric grid investment scale.
2. a kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
In step 3, the investment optimization analysis uses following methods：
The T-D tariff Calculating model first set up according to step 1 calculates the averagely T-D tariff containing tax in the supervision phase, then by it
Price differential value with the target averagely T-D tariff containing tax of setting, using price differential value as zero as constraints, is used as desired value
Iterative calculation method calculates the value for the variable element selected under the constraints.
3. a kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：
In step 3, the investment optimization analysis comprises the following steps successively：
Step 3-1, setup algorithm year be t, calculating cycle j=1, each supervision cycle be m（m≥1）Year, supervision periodicity are Z（Z
≥1）, variable element k=0 selected in step 2；
Step 3-2, the T-D tariff Calculating model first set up according to step 1 calculate the averagely transmission ＆ distribution containing tax in first supervision cycle
Electricity price, then calculates the average T-D tariff containing tax and the target averagely T-D tariff containing tax in first supervision cycle of setting
Price differential value, if price differential value is zero, using k value of the k values now as after optimizing；If price differential value is not zero, using iteration meter
Calculation method adjusts k values, until price differential value is zero, the k values after the as optimization of k values now；
Step 3-3, k values are first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+m, calculating cycle j=2, further according to step 1 set up it is defeated
The averagely T-D tariff containing tax in second supervision cycle is calculated with electricity price Calculating model, the averagely T-D tariff containing tax is then calculated
With the price differential value of second of the setting target averagely T-D tariff containing tax for supervising the cycle, if price differential value is zero, with k now
It is worth as the k values after optimization；If price differential value is not zero, k values are adjusted using iterative calculation method, until price differential value is zero, this
When k values be optimize after k values；
Step 3-4, k values are first reset to zero, and setup algorithm year is t+2m, calculating cycle j=3, the like, until j=Z,
Obtain the k values after each supervision cycle optimization.
4. a kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
In step 2, it is described set up sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis comprise the following steps successively：
Step 2-1-1, to analysis the time, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating carry out initial setting up；
Step 2-1-2, set analysis indexes for sensitivity analysis, and thrown from examine and make cuts rate, newly-increased power network of storage fixed assets
Provide rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure average annual growth rate, reception user assets, wage welfare are average annual
Speedup, the change of electricity sales amount speedup, fixed assets turn solid ratio, fee of material average annual growth rate, price for repairing average annual growth rate, other expenses then
With chosen in average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation these variable elements for sensitivity analysis can
Variable element simultaneously sets its variation tendency, step-length and excursion, to form sensitivity analysis model, wherein, it is described to be used for sensitivity
Property analysis analysis indexes include average T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, the power network efficient portfolio for putting forward income, standard can be counted
Perhaps cost, allowance income, the allowance containing tax are taken in；
Step 2-1-3, first the use sensitivity analysis model carry out sensitivity analysis, are then selected according to sensitivity analysis result
The analysis indexes and variable element of needs are selected, sensitivity analysis chart of the variable element to analysis indexes is finally drawn.
5. a kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
In step 2, the multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model progress multi-scheme of setting up comprises the following steps more successively：
Step 2-2-1, to analysis the time, basic data, basic scene, basic scheme measuring and calculating carry out initial setting up；
Step 2-2-2, set analysis indexes for multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis, and examined and made cuts rate, newly-increased electricity from storage fixed assets
Net investment rate of change, production technological transformation and other specialties and small-sized capital expenditure average annual growth rate, reception user assets, wage welfare
Average annual growth rate, electricity sales amount speedup change, fixed assets turn then solid ratio, fee of material average annual growth rate, price for repairing average annual growth rate, its
Chosen in his expense average annual growth rate, stock assets allowance for depreciation, increment assets allowance for depreciation these variable elements for multi-scheme simulation
The variable element of analysis simultaneously sets its variation tendency, step-length and excursion, to form multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model, wherein,
The analysis indexes by multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis include averagely T-D tariff containing tax, T-D tariff containing tax, can based on put forward income
Power network efficient portfolio, permit cost, permit income, containing tax permit take in；
Step 2-2-3, first the use multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis model carry out multi-scheme sunykatuib analysis, then according to multi-scheme mould
Intend analysis indexes and variable element that analysis result selection needs, and the effective range of the analysis indexes is set, form multi-scheme
Sunykatuib analysis table.
6. a kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：
In step 1,
The power network efficient portfolio predicting unit includes net fixed assets prediction module, current assets prediction module, invisible money
Produce prediction module, the power network efficient portfolio prediction module for putting forward income can be counted；
The allowance forecasting of cost unit include fee of material prediction module, price for repairing prediction module, workers' pay prediction module, its
His Cost Forecast module；
The allowance earnings forecast unit includes weighted average return on capital prediction module, authority cost profit rate prediction mould
Block, debt capital earning rate prediction module, asset-liability ratio prediction module.
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108537387A (en) * | 2018-04-17 | 2018-09-14 | 北京中电普华信息技术有限公司 | A kind of prediction technique and device of the variation of sale of electricity company size |
| CN109670863A (en) * | 2018-12-05 | 2019-04-23 | 广东电网有限责任公司东莞供电局 | A kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method and calculate equipment |
| CN110197337A (en) * | 2019-06-05 | 2019-09-03 | 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | A kind of power grid enterprises' economic activity quantitative analysis method and system |
| CN111050008A (en) * | 2019-12-12 | 2020-04-21 | 北京金山云网络技术有限公司 | Account balance reminding method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN113938310A (en) * | 2021-10-29 | 2022-01-14 | 水利部发展研究中心 | Quality control management system for investment statistic data of water conservancy fixed assets |
| CN116205742A (en) * | 2023-02-20 | 2023-06-02 | 五矿国际信托有限公司 | System and method for accurately simulating cash flow of consumed financial assets |
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2017
- 2017-05-26 CN CN201710385499.6A patent/CN107330542A/en active Pending
Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108537387A (en) * | 2018-04-17 | 2018-09-14 | 北京中电普华信息技术有限公司 | A kind of prediction technique and device of the variation of sale of electricity company size |
| CN109670863A (en) * | 2018-12-05 | 2019-04-23 | 广东电网有限责任公司东莞供电局 | A kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method and calculate equipment |
| CN110197337A (en) * | 2019-06-05 | 2019-09-03 | 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | A kind of power grid enterprises' economic activity quantitative analysis method and system |
| CN111050008A (en) * | 2019-12-12 | 2020-04-21 | 北京金山云网络技术有限公司 | Account balance reminding method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN113938310A (en) * | 2021-10-29 | 2022-01-14 | 水利部发展研究中心 | Quality control management system for investment statistic data of water conservancy fixed assets |
| CN113938310B (en) * | 2021-10-29 | 2023-11-28 | 水利部发展研究中心 | Water conservancy fixed asset investment statistics data quality control management system |
| CN116205742A (en) * | 2023-02-20 | 2023-06-02 | 五矿国际信托有限公司 | System and method for accurately simulating cash flow of consumed financial assets |
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Application publication date: 20171107 |