CN105427045A - Electric power system and electric power market participant risk assessment system - Google Patents
Electric power system and electric power market participant risk assessment system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electric power system and an electric power market participant risk assessment system. The electric power system comprises an electricity quantity acquisition device, a line loss acquisition device, an input controller and a background processing device, wherein the electricity quantity acquisition device acquires the electricity consumption amount of a user and the transmission electricity quantity of each level of power grid; the line loss acquisition device acquires a line loss electricity quantity; the input controller inputs the name of an electricity quantity to be determined; and the background processing device calculates the electricity quantity to be determined. The electric power market participant risk assessment system also comprises a market acquisition device, a model establishment unit, an index determination unit, an index screening unit and a pressure test unit, wherein the market acquisition device acquires market information data; the model establishment unit establishes a behavior model of the electric power market participant; the index determination unit determines a pressure-bearing index and a risk index; the index screening unit screens a key risk index which has a high influence degree on a pressure-bearing index variable; and the pressure test unit evaluates the risk to which the participant faces under an extreme condition. Therefore, through the flexible acquisition of the electricity quantity and the pressure test, the risk to which the electric power market participant faces under the extreme condition can be effectively evaluated.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power and Electricity market risk evaluation areas, particularly a kind of electric system and electricity market participate in main body risk evaluating system.
Background technology
The concept of pressure test (StressTest) is proposed in nineteen ninety-five by IOSCO (international securities regulator tissue) the earliest, it be hypothesis market when worst situation (rise suddenly suddenly as interest rate or stock market drops sharply suddenly), analyze the impact effect to asset portfolio.Within IOSCO and 1999 year, to carry out again further supplementing: pressure test is that the possible occurrence risk of extreme method asset portfolio institute faced is assert and quantizes.
2000, pressure test was defined as financial institution and weighs potential but (plausible) model that abnormal (exceptional) lose may occur by BCGFS (bank of Basel of Bank for International Settlements Global finance systems committee).And when supplementary pressure in 2009 test is assessment bank at serious but contingent sight face the instrument of financial losses.
But, in electricity market, not yet have and assess electricity market under extreme case by pressure test and participate in the system of the risk that main body faces.
In addition, the prerequisite that electricity market participates in main body risk assessment needs to gather flexibly the electric quantity data of each level Grid in transmission and distribution network, therefore needs a kind ofly can carry out to the electric quantity data of each level Grid in transmission and distribution network the electric system that gathers flexibly and assess by pressure test the system that electricity market under extreme case participates in the risk that main body faces.
In view of above-mentioned defect, creator of the present invention is through research and test propose a kind of electric system and electricity market participation main body risk evaluating system finally for a long time.
Summary of the invention
A kind of electric system and electricity market is the object of the present invention is to provide to participate in main body risk evaluating system, in order to overcome above-mentioned technological deficiency.
For achieving the above object, the technical solution used in the present invention is: first provide a kind of electric system, it comprises:
Electric quantity collector, it gathers user power utilization amounts all in transmission and distribution network, each level Grid transmission electricity;
Line loss harvester, it gathers the line loss electricity in level Grid transmitting procedure each in transmission and distribution network;
Input control device, user inputs the title of electricity to be determined by described input control device;
Background process device, it receives described user power utilization amount, described each level Grid transmission electricity and described line loss electricity, calculates described electricity to be determined.
Preferably, the formula of the described electricity to be determined of described background process device calculating is:
Wherein, the computing formula of X is:
In above formula, Q is required electricity to be determined, and i is the sequence number of the electric quantity data to same electricity different modes statistics, x
ifor the electric quantity data to same electricity i-th statistics, n is the total degree to the electric quantity data that same electricity is added up, and is worth centered by X, and M is the maximal value of the distance of electric quantity data and the central value that will retain,
for to same electricity
the electric quantity data of secondary statistics.
Preferably, described line loss harvester comprises current collector, line loss microprocessor and line loss signal projector; Described current collector gathers the current value on transmission and distribution line and is transferred to described line loss microprocessor; The error of described line loss microprocessor to described current value compensates, and calculates described line loss electricity; Described line loss signal projector is by described line loss charge transport extremely described background process device.
Preferably, described electric quantity collector comprises active electric energy meter, reactive energy-meter, electricity microprocessor and electric quantity signal transmitter; The active power of described active electric energy meter metering user or load; The reactive power of described reactive energy-meter metering user or load; The error of described electricity microprocessor to described active power and described reactive power compensates, and calculates active energy and capacity of idle power; Described active energy and described capacity of idle power are transferred to described background process device by described electric quantity signal transmitter.
Preferably, described background process device comprises: signal receiver, storer, signal statistics module and signal computing module; Described signal receiver receives described active energy, described capacity of idle power and described line loss electricity via communication network, and transfers to described storer and store; Described signal statistics module receives the title of the electricity described to be determined of described input control device, is repeatedly added up the electric quantity data of this electricity by multiple different mode; Described signal computing module receives multiple described electric quantity data and calculates described electricity to be determined.
Preferably, described communication network comprise following at least one: GPRS, CDMA, PSTN and unit LAN (Local Area Network).
Secondly, provide a kind of electricity market to participate in main body risk evaluating system, it comprises:
Electric quantity collector, it gathers user power utilization amounts all in transmission and distribution network, each level Grid transmission electricity;
Line loss harvester, it gathers the line loss electricity in level Grid transmitting procedure each in transmission and distribution network;
Input control device, user inputs the title of electricity to be determined by described input control device;
Background process device, it receives described in described user power utilization amount, each level Grid and transmits electricity and described line loss electricity, calculates described electricity to be determined;
Market harvester, gathers market information data;
Unit set up by model, receives the electricity described to be determined of described background process device transmission and the described market information data of described market harvester transmission, sets up the behavior model that electricity market participates in main body;
Index determining unit, according to described behavior model, determine pressure-bearing index and the risk indicator of described participation main body:
Index discriminator unit, carries out sensitivity analysis to the described risk indicator of described participation main body, screens out the more key risk index of the described pressure-bearing target variable of impact;
Pressure test unit, carries out pressure test by described key risk index, the risk that under assessment extreme event, described participation main body faces.
Preferably, the formula of the described electricity to be determined of described background process device calculating is:
Wherein, the computing formula of X is:
In above formula, Q is required electricity to be determined, and i is the sequence number of the electric quantity data to same electricity different modes statistics, x
ifor the described electric quantity data to same electricity i-th statistics, n is the total degree to the described electric quantity data that same electricity is added up, and is worth centered by X, and M is the maximal value of the distance of described electric quantity data and the central value that will retain,
for to same electricity
the described electric quantity data of secondary statistics.
Preferably, described line loss harvester comprises current collector, line loss microprocessor and line loss signal projector; Described current collector gathers the current value on transmission and distribution line and is transferred to described line loss microprocessor; The error of described line loss microprocessor to described current value compensates, and calculates described line loss electricity; Described line loss signal projector is by described line loss charge transport extremely described background process device.
Preferably, described electric quantity collector comprises active electric energy meter, reactive energy-meter, electricity microprocessor and electric quantity signal transmitter; The active power of described active electric energy meter metering user or load; The reactive power of described reactive energy-meter metering user or load; The error of described electricity microprocessor to described active power and described reactive power compensates, and calculates active energy and capacity of idle power; Described active energy and described capacity of idle power are transferred to described background process device by described electric quantity signal transmitter.
Preferably, described background process device comprises: signal receiver, storer, signal statistics module and signal computing module; Described signal receiver receives described active energy, described capacity of idle power and described line loss electricity via communication network, and transfers to the storage of described storer; Described signal statistics module receives the title of the electricity described to be determined of described input control device, is repeatedly added up the described electric quantity data of this electricity by multiple different mode; Described signal computing module receives multiple described electric quantity data and calculates described electricity to be determined.
Preferably, described communication network comprise following at least one: GPRS, CDMA, PSTN and unit LAN (Local Area Network).
Preferably, described participation main body comprises genco, grid company, sale of electricity company and user.
Preferably, the described pressure-bearing index of described grid company is grid company profit, and described risk indicator is social total electricity consumption, rate is not paid in the anti-power transmission amount of T-D tariff, contract purchase of electricity, retail purchase of electricity, distribution power, contract power purchase valency, retail power purchase valency, sales rate of electricity and the electricity charge.
Preferably, the described pressure-bearing index of described genco is genco's profit, and described risk indicator is the corresponding electricity price of Contract generation, retail electricity, assistant service electricity, the anti-power transmission amount of distribution power, contract electricity price, zero potential energy and assistant service.
Preferably, the described pressure-bearing index of described sale of electricity company is sale of electricity corporate profit, and described risk indicator is contract purchase of electricity, rate is not paid in the anti-power transmission amount of retail purchase of electricity, distribution power, contract power purchase valency, retail power purchase valency, sales rate of electricity and the electricity charge.
Preferably, the described pressure-bearing index of described user is purchases strategies, and described risk indicator is contract purchase of electricity, retail purchase of electricity, contract power purchase valency, retail power purchase valency, anti-pushing electric network electricity and instead send income.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is compared with the prior art: provide a kind of electric system, like this, can gather the electricity of each electrical network grade, and can determine according to the electricity to be determined of actual conditions to input; Provide a kind of electricity market and participate in main body risk evaluating system, by the flexible collection of electricity and pressure test, effectively can assess electricity market under extreme case and participate in the risk that main body faces; The electricity of each electrical network grade can be gathered, and can determine according to the electricity to be determined of actual conditions to input, the conduct electricity to be determined of needs, unwanted, do not input, so just achieve the flexible collection to electricity; Can greatly reduce or eliminate electric energy meter by error compensation because the error that causes of mechanical reason, the change of current/voltage temperature or the asymmetric of voltage, improve the accuracy of measuring; Occur that the electric quantity data of difference is converted to the coefficient of himself by twice rounding operation by because electricity statistical is different, thus choose the electric quantity data meeting reserve and calculate last electricity to be determined, this reduces because electricity statistical is different, electric network composition is unreasonable or the problem such as harmonic wave and the data deviation that causes, improve the accuracy of measurement data; Computing formula is simple, convenient, can obtain result fast, improve the speed of electrical measurement, and then improves the speed of whole electric system and electricity market participation main body risk evaluating system, and meanwhile, simple computation process has saved system resource; Receive electric quantity data via communication network, efficient Quick Acquisition can be carried out to electric quantity data; System, by means of communications such as GPRS, CDMA, PSTN, networks, realizes the collection to electricity and relevant information, improves the speed of data acquisition, and the system that improves participates in the efficiency of main body risk assessment to electricity market.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the structural drawing of electric system of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the structural drawing of electric quantity collector of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the structural drawing of line loss harvester of the present invention;
Fig. 4 is the structural drawing of background process device of the present invention;
Fig. 5 is the structural drawing that electricity market of the present invention participates in main body risk evaluating system;
Fig. 6 is the structural drawing that electricity market of the present invention participates in main body risk evaluating system market harvester;
Fig. 7 is that electricity market of the present invention participates in the list of main body risk evaluating system index;
Fig. 8 is that electricity market of the present invention participates in main body risk evaluating system grid company risk indicator sensitivity analysis result.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, to above-mentioned being described in more detail with other technical characteristic and advantage of the present invention.
A kind of electric system, as shown in Figure 1, it is the structural drawing of electric system of the present invention; Wherein, described electric system comprises electric quantity collector 1, line loss harvester 2, input control device 3 and background process device 4, and in electric quantity collector 1 pair of transmission and distribution network, all user power utilization amounts, each level Grid transmission electricity gather; Line loss value in line loss harvester 2 pairs of transmission and distribution networks in each level Grid transmitting procedure gathers; Input control device 3 is connected with background process device 4, and user inputs the title of electricity to be determined by input control device 3; Background process device 4 receives described user power utilization amount, each level Grid transmission electricity and line loss value, calculates described electricity to be determined.
Like this, the electricity of each electrical network grade can be gathered, and can determine according to the electricity to be determined of actual conditions to input.
Described input control device 3 can be move input media on the other hand, and as panel computer, keyboard etc. also can be automatic input media.
Embodiment one
Electric system as described above, the present embodiment and its difference are, shown in the structural drawing of electric quantity collector as of the present invention in Fig. 2, electric quantity collector 1 comprises active electric energy meter 11, reactive energy-meter 12, electricity microprocessor 13 and electric quantity signal transmitter 14; The active power of active electric energy meter 11 metering user or load; The reactive power of reactive energy-meter 12 metering user or load; The error of electricity microprocessor 13 pairs of active power and reactive power compensates, and calculates active energy and capacity of idle power; Active energy and capacity of idle power are transferred to background process device 4 by electric quantity signal transmitter 14.
Wherein, electric energy can convert various energy to.As: convert heat energy to by electric furnace, convert mechanical energy to by motor, convert luminous energy etc. to by electric light.The electric energy consumed in these are changed is active energy.And the ammeter recording this electric energy is power electric meter.Some electrical installation first must set up a kind of environment of conversion when making energy conversion, as: motor, transformer etc. first will set up a magnetic field could make energy conversion, and also some electrical installation first will set up an electric field could make energy conversion.And the electric energy set up needed for magnetic field and electric field is all reactive energy.And the ammeter recording this electric energy is Reactive power meter.The data of active electric energy meter and reactive energy-meter collection are instantaneous power.
Can greatly reduce or eliminate electric energy meter by error compensation because the error that causes of mechanical reason, the change of current/voltage temperature or the asymmetric of voltage, improve the accuracy of measuring.
Embodiment two
Electric system as described above, the present embodiment and its difference are, shown in the structural drawing of line loss harvester as of the present invention in Fig. 3, line loss harvester 2 comprises current collector 21, line loss microprocessor 22 and line loss signal projector 23; Current collector 21 is arranged on transmission and distribution line, gathers the current value on transmission and distribution line and is transferred to line loss microprocessor 22; The error of line loss microprocessor 22 pairs of current values compensates, and calculates line loss electricity; Line loss signal projector 23 by line loss charge transport to background process device 4.
Can greatly reduce or eliminate current collector by error compensation because the error that causes of the change of mechanical reason or current temperature, improve the accuracy of measuring.
Embodiment three
Electric system as described above, the present embodiment and its difference are, the formula that background process device 4 calculates described electricity to be determined is:
Wherein, the computing formula of X is:
In above formula, Q is required electricity to be determined, and i is the sequence number of the electric quantity data to same electricity different modes statistics, x
ifor the electric quantity data to same electricity i-th statistics, n is the total degree to the electric quantity data that same electricity is added up, and is worth centered by X, and M is the maximal value of the distance of electric quantity data and the central value that will retain,
for to same electricity
the electric quantity data of secondary statistics.
Above-mentioned thinking is: first obtain the central value to all electric quantity datas that same electricity is added up, and described central value is minimum to the distance sum of all electric quantity datas; Determine the ultimate range of the electric quantity data distance center value that will retain, by rounding, the electric quantity data meeting reserve is converted to 0 downwards, the electric quantity data not meeting reserve is converted to the natural number being more than or equal to 1; Again add after getting inverse, the electric quantity data meeting reserve is converted to 1, the electric quantity data not meeting reserve is converted to the number between 0 and 1; Finally by rounding downwards, the electric quantity data now meeting reserve is converted to 1, and the electric quantity data not meeting reserve is converted to 0; With the coefficient of these data for corresponding electric quantity data, just can only retain the electric quantity data meeting reserve, the mean value of the electric quantity data of reservation is required electricity to be determined, and described electricity to be determined is closest to the value of actual electricity.
Beneficial effect is: occur that the electric quantity data of difference is converted to the coefficient of himself by twice rounding operation by because of electricity statistical difference, thus choose the electric quantity data meeting reserve and calculate last electricity to be determined, this reduces because electricity statistical is different, electric network composition is unreasonable or the problem such as harmonic wave and the data deviation that causes, improve the accuracy of measurement data; Computing formula is simple, and convenient, can obtain result fast, improve the speed of electrical measurement, and then improve the speed of whole electric system, meanwhile, simple computation process has saved system resource.
Embodiment four
Electric system as described above, the present embodiment and its difference are, shown in the structural drawing of background process device as of the present invention in Fig. 4, background process device 4 is server, and it comprises signal receiver 41, storer 42, signal statistics module 43 and signal computing module 44; Signal receiver 41 receives active energy and capacity of idle power that electric quantity signal transmitter 14 transmits and the line loss electricity that line loss signal projector 23 transmits via communication network, and transfers to storer 42 and store; Signal statistics module 43 receives the electricity title to be determined of input control device 3, is repeatedly added up the electric quantity data of this electricity by multiple different mode; Signal computing module 44 receives multiple described electric quantity data and calculates described electricity to be determined.
The described electric quantity data repeatedly being added up this electricity by multiple different mode, namely after determining the title of electricity, determine different statisticals, this electricity obtains as can be added by the active energy of this node and capacity of idle power, also can by the electricity (active energy of all nodes under this node, capacity of idle power, line loss electricity) sum obtains, also electricity (the active energy of all nodes under superior node except this node can be deducted by the superior node electricity of this node, capacity of idle power, line loss electricity) obtain, the all possible statistical of such traversal, obtain multiple electric quantity data, these electric quantity datas are because electricity statistical is different, the problems such as the unreasonable or harmonic wave of electric network composition and slightly difference.Wherein, node is starting point in transmission and distribution network, terminal and point of crossing, bifurcation; Comprise user, load, the crotch of transmission electric wire or transformer station, electric substation etc.
Signal receiver 41 receives electric quantity data via communication network, can carry out efficient Quick Acquisition to electric quantity data.
Above-mentioned communication network comprises following one or more: GPRS, CDMA, PSTN and unit LAN (Local Area Network).
GPRS is the abbreviation of general packet radio service technology (GeneralPacketRadioService), it be gsm mobile telephone user can a kind of mobile data services.
CDMA is the standard network type of UNICOM.
PSTN is the abbreviation of public switched telephone network (PSTN---PublicSwitchedTelephoneNetwork), namely conventional in our daily life telephone network.
Below for participating in above-mentioned being described in more detail with other technical characteristic and advantage of main body risk evaluating system to another main body electricity market of the present invention:
As shown in Figure 5, it is the structural drawing of electricity market participation main body risk evaluating system of the present invention; Wherein, described electricity market participation main body risk evaluating system comprises: electric quantity collector 1, line loss harvester 2, input control device 3, background process device 4, market harvester 5, model set up unit 6, index determining unit 7, index discriminator unit 8 and pressure test unit 9;
In electric quantity collector 1 pair of transmission and distribution network, all user power utilization amounts, each level Grid transmission electricity gather;
Line loss value in line loss harvester 2 pairs of transmission and distribution networks in each level Grid transmitting procedure gathers;
Input control device 3 is connected with background process device 4, and user inputs the title of electricity to be determined by input control device 3;
Background process device 4 receives described user power utilization amount, each level Grid transmission electricity and line loss value, calculates described electricity to be determined, and transfers to model and set up unit 6;
Market harvester 5 gathers market information data, and transfers to model and set up unit 6;
Model is set up unit 6 and is received described electricity to be determined and described market information data, sets up the behavior model that electricity market participates in main body;
Index determining unit 7, according to described behavior model, determines pressure-bearing index and the risk indicator of described participation main body:
The described risk indicator of index discriminator unit 8 to described participation main body carries out sensitivity analysis, screens out the more key risk index of the described pressure-bearing target variable of impact;
Pressure test unit 9 carries out pressure test by described key risk index, the risk that under assessment extreme event, described participation main body faces.
Like this, the electricity of each electrical network grade can be gathered, and can determine according to the electricity to be determined of actual conditions to input, the conduct electricity to be determined of needs, unwanted, do not input, so just achieve the flexible collection to electricity; By to the flexible collection of electricity and pressure test, effectively can assess electricity market under extreme case and participate in the risk that main body faces.
Described input control device 3 can be move input media on the other hand, and as panel computer, keyboard etc. also can be automatic input media.
Embodiment five
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, the present embodiment and its difference are, shown in the structural drawing of electric quantity collector as of the present invention in Fig. 2, electric quantity collector 1 comprises active electric energy meter 11, reactive energy-meter 12, electricity microprocessor 13 and electric quantity signal transmitter 14; The active power of active electric energy meter 11 metering user or load; The reactive power of reactive energy-meter 12 metering user or load; The error of electricity microprocessor 13 pairs of active power and reactive power compensates, and calculates active energy and capacity of idle power; Active energy and capacity of idle power are transferred to background process device 4 by electric quantity signal transmitter 14.
Wherein, electric energy can convert various energy to.As: convert heat energy to by electric furnace, convert mechanical energy to by motor, convert luminous energy etc. to by electric light.The electric energy consumed in these are changed is active energy.And the ammeter recording this electric energy is power electric meter.Some electrical installation first must set up a kind of environment of conversion when making energy conversion, as: motor, transformer etc. first will set up a magnetic field could make energy conversion, and also some electrical installation first will set up an electric field could make energy conversion.And the electric energy set up needed for magnetic field and electric field is all reactive energy.And the ammeter recording this electric energy is Reactive power meter.The data of active electric energy meter and reactive energy-meter collection are instantaneous power.
Can greatly reduce or eliminate electric energy meter by error compensation because the error that causes of mechanical reason, the change of current/voltage temperature or the asymmetric of voltage, improve the accuracy of measuring.
Embodiment six
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, the present embodiment and its difference are, shown in the structural drawing of line loss harvester as of the present invention in Fig. 3, line loss harvester 2 comprises current collector 21, line loss microprocessor 22 and line loss signal projector 23; Current collector 21 is arranged on transmission and distribution line, gathers the current value on transmission and distribution line and is transferred to line loss microprocessor 22; The error of line loss microprocessor 22 pairs of current values compensates, and calculates line loss electricity; Line loss signal projector 23 by line loss charge transport to background process device 4.
Can greatly reduce or eliminate current collector by error compensation because the error that causes of the change of mechanical reason or current temperature, improve the accuracy of measuring.
Embodiment seven
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, and the present embodiment and its difference are, the formula that background process device 4 calculates described electricity to be determined is:
Wherein, the computing formula of X is:
In above formula, Q is required electricity to be determined, and i is the sequence number of the electric quantity data to same electricity different modes statistics, x
ifor the electric quantity data to same electricity i-th statistics, n is the total degree to the electric quantity data that same electricity is added up, and is worth centered by X, and M is the maximal value of the distance of electric quantity data and the central value that will retain,
for to same electricity
the electric quantity data of secondary statistics.
Above-mentioned thinking is: first obtain the central value to all electric quantity datas that same electricity is added up, and described central value is minimum to the distance sum of all electric quantity datas; Determine the ultimate range of the electric quantity data distance center value that will retain, by rounding, the electric quantity data meeting reserve is converted to 0 downwards, the electric quantity data not meeting reserve is converted to the natural number being more than or equal to 1; Again add after getting inverse, the electric quantity data meeting reserve is converted to 1, the electric quantity data not meeting reserve is converted to the number between 0 and 1; Finally by rounding downwards, the electric quantity data now meeting reserve is converted to 1, and the electric quantity data not meeting reserve is converted to 0; With the coefficient of these data for corresponding electric quantity data, just can only retain the electric quantity data meeting reserve, the mean value of the electric quantity data of reservation is required electricity to be determined, and described electricity to be determined is closest to the value of actual electricity.
Beneficial effect is: occur that the electric quantity data of difference is converted to the coefficient of himself by twice rounding operation by because of electricity statistical difference, thus choose the electric quantity data meeting reserve and calculate last electricity to be determined, this reduces because electricity statistical is different, electric network composition is unreasonable or the problem such as harmonic wave and the data deviation that causes, improve the accuracy of measurement data; Computing formula is simple, convenient, can obtain result fast, improve the speed of electrical measurement, and then improves the speed that whole electricity market participates in main body risk evaluating system, and meanwhile, simple computation process has saved system resource.
Embodiment eight
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, the present embodiment and its difference are, shown in the structural drawing of background process device as of the present invention in Fig. 4, background process device 4 is server, and it comprises signal receiver 41, storer 42, signal statistics module 43 and signal computing module 44; Signal receiver 41 receives active energy and capacity of idle power that electric quantity signal transmitter 14 transmits and the line loss electricity that line loss signal projector 23 transmits via communication network, and transfers to storer 42 and store; Signal statistics module 43 receives the electricity title to be determined of input control device 3, is repeatedly added up the electric quantity data of this electricity by multiple different mode; Signal computing module 44 receives multiple described electric quantity data and calculates described electricity to be determined.
The described electric quantity data repeatedly being added up this electricity by multiple different mode, namely after determining the title of electricity, determine different statisticals, this electricity obtains as can be added by the active energy of this node and capacity of idle power, also can by the electricity (active energy of all nodes under this node, capacity of idle power, line loss electricity) sum obtains, also electricity (the active energy of all nodes under superior node except this node can be deducted by the superior node electricity of this node, capacity of idle power, line loss electricity) obtain, the all possible statistical of such traversal, obtain multiple electric quantity data, these electric quantity datas are because electricity statistical is different, the problems such as the unreasonable or harmonic wave of electric network composition and slightly difference.Wherein, node is starting point in transmission and distribution network, terminal and point of crossing, bifurcation; Comprise user, load, the crotch of transmission electric wire or transformer station, electric substation etc.
Signal receiver 41 receives electric quantity data via communication network, can carry out efficient Quick Acquisition to electric quantity data.
Above-mentioned communication network comprises following one or more: GPRS, CDMA, PSTN and unit LAN (Local Area Network).
GPRS is the abbreviation of general packet radio service technology (GeneralPacketRadioService), it be gsm mobile telephone user can a kind of mobile data services.
CDMA is the standard network type of UNICOM.
PSTN is the abbreviation of public switched telephone network (PSTN---PublicSwitchedTelephoneNetwork), namely conventional in our daily life telephone network.
Embodiment nine
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, the present embodiment and its difference are, electricity market as of the present invention in Fig. 6 participates in shown in the structural drawing of main body risk evaluating system market harvester, and market harvester 5 comprises information input equipment 51 and communication module 52; Information input equipment 51 receives the described market information data of extraneous input; Communication module 52 is set up unit 6 via communication network and model and is connected, and transmits described market information data.Like this, efficient Quick Acquisition can be carried out to market information data.
Above-mentioned communication network comprises following one or more: GPRS, CDMA, PSTN and unit LAN (Local Area Network).
Described market information data at least comprise: long-term agreement electric rate, short-term contract electricity price, T-D tariff and sales rate of electricity.It can be inputted by information input equipment 51 via related personnel, also can be obtained by other approach such as networks and be recorded by information input equipment 51.
Embodiment ten
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, and the present embodiment and its difference are, model is set up in unit 6, and electricity market participates in main body and comprises: genco, grid company, sale of electricity company and user, and its behavior model is as follows:
A) grid company Profit model is
Wherein, P
c, Q
cfor long-term agreement electric rate and electricity, P
r, Q
rfor short-term contract electricity price and short-term contract power consumption, Q
gfor distributed energy generated energy, P
tfor T-D tariff, P
s, r
gfor sales rate of electricity and the unit cost reclaiming distributed power source electric energy.Six are divided into by unlike signs in formula, first two represent that T-D tariff income has born the sale of electricity service income of revealing all the details respectively, two expression conract markets afterwards and the purchases strategies of short-term market, last two represent the purchases strategies of recovery distributed power source foldback electric energy and the fixed cost of grid company respectively.
The Profit model of genco is
In formula, P
c, Q
cfor long-term agreement electric rate and electricity, P
r, Q
rfor short-term contract electricity price and short-term contract power consumption, Q
gfor distributed energy generated energy.Front two incomes representing conract market and short-term market respectively, last three (three of formula second row a, b, c beginning) represent cost of electricity-generatings.
Sale of electricity corporate profit model is
Profit
R＝(Q
c+Q
r-Q
g)·P
s·μ
1·(1-κ)
-Q
c·P
c·μ
2-[Q
r-Q
g]
+·P
r·μ
3-[Q
r-Q
g]
+·r
g-C
f
In formula, Section 1 represents power selling income, two expression conract markets afterwards and the purchases strategies of short-term market, and last two represent the purchases strategies of recovery distributed power source foldback electric energy and the fixed cost of sale of electricity company respectively.
User's purchases strategies model is
In formula, Section 1 represents the power supply cost (market price+T-D tariff) of user in conract market, Section 2 represents the power supply cost (market price+T-D tariff) of user in short-term market, and Section 3 represents the income that user obtains to electrical network foldback electric energy.
The profit and cost participating in main body can be calculated fast by described behavior model, ensure the smooth confirmation of follow-up pressure-bearing index, improve the speed that electricity market participates in main body risk assessment.
Embodiment 11
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, the present embodiment and its difference are, in index determining unit 7, determine that the pressure-bearing index of each main body is for its profit or cost, also can determine the risk indicator of each risk factors and correspondence simultaneously.
Wherein, electricity market as of the present invention in Fig. 7 participates in shown in the list of main body risk evaluating system index, and the pressure-bearing index of grid company is grid company profit, and risk indicator is social total electricity consumption; T-D tariff; The anti-power transmission amount of contract purchase of electricity, retail purchase of electricity, distribution power; Contract power purchase valency, retail power purchase valency, sales rate of electricity; Rate is not paid in the electricity charge;
The pressure-bearing index of genco is genco's profit, and risk indicator is Contract generation, retail electricity, assistant service electricity, the anti-power transmission amount of distribution power; Contract electricity price, zero potential energy, the corresponding electricity price of assistant service; The variation of coal-fired equal energy source cost causes the variation of cost function coefficient;
The pressure-bearing index of sale of electricity company is sale of electricity corporate profit, and risk indicator is contract purchase of electricity, retail purchase of electricity, the anti-power transmission amount of distribution power; Contract power purchase valency, retail power purchase valency, sales rate of electricity; Rate is not paid in the electricity charge;
The pressure-bearing index of user is purchases strategies, and risk indicator is contract purchase of electricity, retail purchase of electricity; Contract power purchase valency, retail power purchase valency; Anti-pushing electric network electricity; Instead send income.
Like this, confirm the risk indicator of each risk factors and correspondence in detail, fully taken into account most factors that existing electricity market may cause risk, make system can risk that more each main body faces under Efficient Evaluation extreme event.
Embodiment 12
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, and the present embodiment and its difference are, index discriminator unit 8 carries out sensitivity analysis to each risk indicator of each participation main body, screen out and affect the more key risk index of pressure-bearing variable.
It is constant that sensitivity analysis refers to other risk indicators of supposition, investigates the influence degree of single risk indicator to pressure-bearing variable.
For grid company, carried out sensitivity analysis to sales rate of electricity, distributed energy generating accounting, short-term market electricity accounting, short-term market power purchase price and conract market power purchase price respectively, each index participates in shown in main body risk evaluating system grid company risk indicator sensitivity analysis result on the impact of grid company profit electricity market as of the present invention in Fig. 8:
Wherein, Retailprice is sales rate of electricity, Distributedgeneration is distributed energy generating accounting, Powerfromshort-termmarket is short-term market electricity accounting, Purchasingpriceonshort-termmarket is short-term market power purchase price, and Purchasingpriceoncontractmarket is conract market power purchase price.
According to sensitivity analysis result, choose sales rate of electricity, distributed energy generating accounting as key risk index.
Have chosen the most responsive risk indicator like this as key risk index, improve the susceptibility of pressure-bearing index, make the assessment of system to the risk that each main body faces more effective.
Embodiment 13
Electricity market as described above participates in main body risk evaluating system, the present embodiment and its difference are, pressure test unit 9 adopts modelling or VaR (ValueatRisk) method to carry out pressure test, the risk that under assessment extreme event, described participation main body faces.
A) modelling
Modelling is that the mobility scale by artificially setting risk indicator tests the corresponding mobility scale of pressure-bearing index, and it can reflect the influence degree of pressure-bearing index by risk indicator well, but shortcoming to provide possibility information.Same for grid company, pressure test scenario analysis under its modelling is a coordinate system, wherein, X, Y, Z axis represents mobility scale, the mobility scale of distributed energy accounting, the mobility scale of social power load of sales rate of electricity respectively, and the degree of depth of color then represents the corresponding mobility scale of pressure-bearing index electrical network profit, this analytical approach effectively have evaluated the performance of pressure-bearing index under extreme case, but determines to provide relevant possibility information.
B) VaR method
VaR method compared with modelling, it be utilize historical data to carry out Monte Carlo simulation, the test result obtained contains the possibility information of result.Concrete steps are as follows:
(1) historical data of sales rate of electricity and social power load is utilized to obtain the relation curve of electricity price and load; (2) utilize the error of prediction load and actual load historical data, statistics obtains the probability distribution graph predicting load (departing from actual load); (3) probability distribution graph of the prediction load deviation in next day load prediction data provided according to regulation and control center and (2), obtains probability distribution graph and the actual load distribution function curve of actual load; (3) adopt the uniform random number generator between (0-1), produce the positive number k between (0-1) immediately, obtained the load value of its correspondence by actual load distribution function curve; (4), and about this load value in a suitable interval, obtain in this interval, there are each and every one electricity prices some by the load electricity price relation curve in (1), randomly draw one of them electricity price value; (5) obtain its probability distribution according to the historical data of distributed energy accounting and sample by this probability distribution; (6) according to the social power load, electricity price and the distributed energy accounting that obtain, substitute into its market behavior model, obtain the profit (cost) of its next day; (7) repeat (3) ~ (6) totally 10000 times, obtain 10000 sampling electricity prices, load, distributed energy accounting data and corresponding main market players profit.According to definition and the law of great numbers of VaR, the market of sampling gained is participated in main body profit is descending to sort, if confidence level is 95%, then the 9500th value is the VaR value of profit.
Like this, the present invention uses for reference the related application of financial field pressure test, participate on the behavior model of main body at power market components, propose modelling and VaR method respectively to participate in main body to electricity market and carried out pressure test, fully take into account existing electricity market to small probability extreme event, can each main body faces under Efficient Evaluation extreme event risk.
System, by means of communications such as GPRS, CDMA, PSTN, networks, realizes the collection to electricity and relevant information, improves the speed of data acquisition, and the system that improves participates in the efficiency of main body risk assessment to electricity market.
The foregoing is only preferred embodiment of the present invention, is only illustrative for the purpose of the present invention, and nonrestrictive.Those skilled in the art is understood, and can carry out many changes in the spirit and scope that the claims in the present invention limit to it, amendment, even equivalence, but all will fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. an electric system, is characterized in that, this system comprises:
Electric quantity collector, it gathers user power utilization amounts all in transmission and distribution network, each level Grid transmission electricity;
Line loss harvester, it gathers the line loss electricity in level Grid transmitting procedure each in transmission and distribution network;
Input control device, user inputs the title of electricity to be determined by described input control device;
Background process device, it receives described in described user power utilization amount, each level Grid and transmits electricity and described line loss electricity, calculates described electricity to be determined.
2. electric system according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the formula that described background process device calculates described electricity to be determined is:
Wherein, the computing formula of X is:
In above formula, Q is required electricity to be determined, and i is the sequence number of the electric quantity data to same electricity different modes statistics, x
ifor the described electric quantity data to same electricity i-th statistics, n is the total degree to the described electric quantity data that same electricity is added up, and is worth centered by X, and M is the maximal value of the distance of described electric quantity data and the central value that will retain,
for to same electricity
the described electric quantity data of secondary statistics.
3. electric system according to claim 2, is characterized in that, described line loss harvester comprises current collector, line loss microprocessor and line loss signal projector; Described current collector gathers the current value on transmission and distribution line and is transferred to described line loss microprocessor; The error of described line loss microprocessor to described current value compensates, and calculates described line loss electricity; Described line loss signal projector is by described line loss charge transport extremely described background process device.
4. electric system according to claim 3, is characterized in that, described electric quantity collector comprises active electric energy meter, reactive energy-meter, electricity microprocessor and electric quantity signal transmitter; The active power of described active electric energy meter metering user or load; The reactive power of described reactive energy-meter metering user or load; The error of described electricity microprocessor to described active power and described reactive power compensates, and calculates active energy and capacity of idle power; Described active energy and described capacity of idle power are transferred to described background process device by described electric quantity signal transmitter.
5. electric system according to claim 4, is characterized in that, described background process device comprises: signal receiver, storer, signal statistics module and signal computing module; Described signal receiver receives described active energy, described capacity of idle power and described line loss electricity via communication network, and transfers to the storage of described storer; Described signal statistics module receives the title of the electricity described to be determined of described input control device, is repeatedly added up the described electric quantity data of this electricity by multiple different mode; Described signal computing module receives multiple described electric quantity data and calculates described electricity to be determined.
6. electric system according to claim 5, is characterized in that, described communication network comprise following at least one: GPRS, CDMA, PSTN and unit LAN (Local Area Network).
7. electricity market participates in a main body risk evaluating system, it is characterized in that, comprising:
Electric quantity collector, it gathers user power utilization amounts all in transmission and distribution network, each level Grid transmission electricity;
Line loss harvester, it gathers the line loss electricity in level Grid transmitting procedure each in transmission and distribution network;
Input control device, user inputs the title of electricity to be determined by described input control device;
Background process device, it receives described in described user power utilization amount, each level Grid and transmits electricity and described line loss electricity, calculates described electricity to be determined;
Market harvester, gathers market information data;
Unit set up by model, receives the electricity described to be determined of described background process device transmission and the described market information data of described market harvester transmission, sets up the behavior model that electricity market participates in main body;
Index determining unit, according to described behavior model, determine pressure-bearing index and the risk indicator of described participation main body:
Index discriminator unit, carries out sensitivity analysis to the described risk indicator of described participation main body, screens out the more key risk index of the described pressure-bearing target variable of impact;
Pressure test unit, carries out pressure test by described key risk index, the risk that under assessment extreme event, described participation main body faces.
8. electricity market according to claim 7 participates in main body risk evaluating system, it is characterized in that, the formula that described background process device calculates described electricity to be determined is:
Wherein, the computing formula of X is:
In above formula, Q is required electricity to be determined, and i is the sequence number of the electric quantity data to same electricity different modes statistics, x
ifor the described electric quantity data to same electricity i-th statistics, n is the total degree to the described electric quantity data that same electricity is added up, and is worth centered by X, and M is the maximal value of the distance of described electric quantity data and the central value that will retain,
for to same electricity
the described electric quantity data of secondary statistics.
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