CN109670863A - A kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method and calculate equipment - Google Patents
A kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method and calculate equipment Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization methods, suitable for being executed in calculating equipment, this method comprises: establishing the first simulation model of power supply company's scale of investment and T-D tariff, first simulation model calculates the allowance scale of investment of power supply company based on T-D tariff；The second simulation model of power supply company's scale of investment and T-D tariff is established, second simulation model calculates T-D tariff fluctuation based on the intended investment scale of power supply company；Target T-D tariff is input to first simulation model, the theoretical of power supply company is obtained and permits scale of investment, and compared with its actual planned investment scale；The target scale of investment of power supply company is input to second simulation model, obtains theoretical T-D tariff, and it is compared with actual T-D tariff；And processing is optimized to the scale of investment of power supply company according to two kinds of comparing results.The invention also discloses the calculating equipment for executing the optimization method.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of power systems more particularly to a kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method and calculating to set
It is standby.
Background technique
In order to meet the national economic development to the solid demand of electric power, also for the national power demand of satisfaction, power supply company
Scientific and reasonable carry out electricity power engineering construction is needed, guarantees that electricity power engineering can support power grid well to run, and then create higher
Economic benefit, promote national economic development, also develop power supply company well.One of main body as electricity market, power supply
Enterprise carries the main power supply task of the whole society, and production and operating activities are related to the overall situation of economic development and social stability.
Therefore, emulation is optimized to the scale of investment of power supply enterprise, it is significant to promotion power industry most optimum distribution of resources.Pass through
Correlative study both domestic and external is not it can be found that the research of the scale of investment optimization related fields of power supply enterprise is goed deep into China.
Summary of the invention
For this purpose, the present invention provides a kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method and calculates equipment, to try hard to solve or extremely
It is few alleviate above there are the problem of.
According to an aspect of the present invention, a kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method is provided, is suitable for calculating equipment
Middle execution, method include: to establish the first simulation model of power supply company's scale of investment and T-D tariff, and the first simulation model is based on
The allowance scale of investment of T-D tariff calculating power supply company；Establish the second emulation mould of power supply company's scale of investment and T-D tariff
Type, the second simulation model calculate T-D tariff fluctuation based on the intended investment scale of power supply company；Target T-D tariff is inputted
It to the first simulation model, obtains the theoretical of power supply company and permits scale of investment, and compared with its actual planned investment scale；It will
The target scale of investment of power supply company is input to the second simulation model, obtains theoretical T-D tariff, and by itself and actual transmission & distribution
Electricity price comparison；And processing is optimized to the scale of investment of power supply company according to two kinds of comparing results.
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, rule are invested in the allowance for calculating power supply company based on T-D tariff
The step of mould includes: based on T-D tariff and to cross the expected allowance income of net power quantity predicting calculating；Assets rule based on power supply company
The allowance income that mould, the various rate tax rates and operation and maintenance expense level calculation last issue assets are formed；Income button is permitted by expected
Except the allowance income that last assets are formed, new assets income amount is obtained；By new assets income amount divided by expected each
The kind rate tax rate and efficient portfolio conversion ratio obtain permitting scale of investment.
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, include following formula in the first simulation model: power supply company is pre-
Phase investment increases income=expection and permits income-current current allowance income-current tax of allowance cost-；Last assets are formed
Allowance income=(expected newly-increased to permit the expected workers' pay growth rate of income-current workers' pay *)/((it is expected that increasing material newly
Take coefficient+expection and increase the newly-increased other fees coefficient of price for repairing coefficient+expection newly) the expected allowance earning rate of * 1.25++average assets
Allowance for depreciation+(the expected asset-liability ratio of 1+) expected income tax rate of the expected allowance earning rate * of *+(it is expected that permitting earning rate-expection
Newly-increased fee of material coefficient) the expected education additional city construction tax tax rate of the expected VAT rate * of *)；Power supply company's intended investment rule
Mould=expection efficient portfolio increases amount/efficient portfolio conversion ratio.
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, include following formula in the second simulation model: power supply company works as
Phase scale of investment=power supply company's planned investment scale * efficient portfolio conversion ratio；T-D tariff=power supply company's intended investment is received
Enter/be expected transmission & distribution electricity.
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, model includes that efficient portfolio and depreciation cost calculate: current effective
Assets=end of term efficient portfolio+current budgets for operation；The current investment * efficient portfolio of efficient portfolio=power supply company is increased in phase newly to turn
Rate；Asset depreciation volume=end of term efficient portfolio * is averaged asset depreciation rate；(increase newly in+the phase has end of term efficient portfolio=INTEG
Imitate assets-asset depreciation volume, efficient portfolio initial value)；Depreciation cost=end of term efficient portfolio * is averaged asset depreciation.
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, model includes that operation and maintenance expense calculates: asset retirement rate=
(retired Net asset value/retired assets salvage value rate)/initial efficient portfolio；Operation and maintenance expense reduction volume=end of term efficient portfolio * money
Produce retired rate * history run maintenance expense；Newly-increased fee of material=INTEG (+newly-increased fee of material-fee of material is reduced, and Historical Materials take)；
Newly-increased price for repairing=INTEG (+newly-increased price for repairing-price for repairing is reduced, history price for repairing)；Newly-increased other fees=INTEG (+new
Increase other fees-other fees to reduce, history other fees).
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, model includes that workers' pay and current fee of material calculate: current
Workers' pay=INTEG (workers' pay troughput, history workers' pay)；Current operation and maintenance expense=current price for repairing+current
Other fees+current fee of material+current workers' pay budgets for operation=current operation and maintenance expense * 0.25.
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, model includes permitting income calculation: permitting earning rate=equity
Capital cost * (1- asset-liability ratio)+cost of debt capital * asset-liability ratio；Permit income=current efficient portfolio * to permit receiving
Beneficial rate.
Optionally, in optimization method according to the present invention, model includes that tax calculates: urban construction and the additional tax of education
=(current allowance income * VAT rate-current fee of material * VAT rate) * education and the surtax tax rate；Income tax=when
Phase efficient portfolio * (1- asset-liability ratio) * permits earning rate * (1- income tax rate) * income tax rate；Current tax=city
Construction and the additional tax of education+income tax.
According to another aspect of the present invention, a kind of calculating equipment is provided, comprising: one or more processors；Memory；
With one or more programs, wherein the storage of one or more of programs in the memory and is configured as by one
Or multiple processors execute, one or more of programs include for executing distributed power generation and distribution network planning as described above
The instruction for the combined optimization method drawn.
In accordance with a further aspect of the present invention, a kind of computer-readable storage medium for storing one or more programs is provided
Matter, one or more of programs include instruction, and described instruction is when calculating equipment execution, so that the calculating equipment executes such as
The combined optimization method of the upper distributed power generation and distribution network planning.
According to the technique and scheme of the present invention, based on the analysis of T-D tariff regulatory format and scale of investment optimum ideals,
It has been determined that T-D tariff supervision invests the mechanism of action to power supply company.On the one hand, T-D tariff-power supply company's investment is established
Simulation model calculates from the primary condition and constraint condition of current power supply company's enterprise operation and permits scale of investment, to mention
Rise the assurance to T-D tariff regulatory constraints situation.On the other hand, power supply company's investment-T-D tariff simulation model is established,
Based on the basal conditions of current power supply company's economy, scale of investment is invested according to schedule, to emulate planned investment scale
Under T-D tariff change conditions, for formulating scale of investment optimisation strategy.By Liang Ge simulation model, power supply enterprise can have
Effect grasps the interaction mechanism of T-D tariff and power supply company's investment, and the power supply company for formulating science for power supply company invests rule
Mould provides important foundation.
Detailed description of the invention
To the accomplishment of the foregoing and related purposes, certain illustrative sides are described herein in conjunction with following description and drawings
Face, these aspects indicate the various modes that can practice principles disclosed herein, and all aspects and its equivalent aspect
It is intended to fall in the range of theme claimed.Read following detailed description in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, the disclosure it is above-mentioned
And other purposes, feature and advantage will be apparent.Throughout the disclosure, identical appended drawing reference generally refers to identical
Component or element.
Fig. 1 shows the schematic diagram according to an embodiment of the invention for calculating equipment 100；
Fig. 2 shows the flow charts of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method 200 according to an embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 3 shows power supply company's scale of investment optimization logic cause-and-effect diagram according to an embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 4 shows the schematic illustration of two simulation models according to an embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 respectively illustrates the detailed signal of the first, second simulation model according to an embodiment of the invention
Figure；
Fig. 7a-7c is respectively illustrated to be permitted permitting scale of investment in scale of investment simulation analysis and increase newly in certain power supply company
Efficient portfolio number schematic diagram, operation and maintenance expense situation schematic diagram and end of term efficient portfolio number schematic diagram；And
Fig. 8 a-8d, which is respectively illustrated, changes the end of term in simulation analysis in power supply company's planned investment scale and T-D tariff
Efficient portfolio amount schematic diagram, operation and maintenance expense situation schematic diagram, asset size and allowance income schematic diagram and T-D tariff
Change conditions schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are described in more detail below with reference to accompanying drawings.Although showing the disclosure in attached drawing
Exemplary embodiment, it being understood, however, that may be realized in various forms the disclosure without should be by embodiments set forth here
It is limited.On the contrary, these embodiments are provided to facilitate a more thoroughly understanding of the present invention, and can be by the scope of the present disclosure
It is fully disclosed to those skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is the block diagram according to an embodiment of the invention for calculating equipment 100.In basic configuration 102, calculate
Equipment 100 typically comprises system storage 106 and one or more processor 104.Memory bus 108 can be used for
Communication between processor 104 and system storage 106.
Depending on desired configuration, processor 104 can be any kind of processing, including but not limited to: microprocessor
(μ P), microcontroller (μ C), digital information processor (DSP) or any combination of them.Processor 104 may include such as
The cache of one or more rank of on-chip cache 110 and second level cache 112 etc, processor core
114 and register 116.Exemplary processor core 114 may include arithmetic and logical unit (ALU), floating-point unit (FPU),
Digital signal processing core (DSP core) or any combination of them.Exemplary Memory Controller 118 can be with processor
104 are used together, or in some implementations, and Memory Controller 118 can be an interior section of processor 104.
Depending on desired configuration, system storage 106 can be any type of memory, including but not limited to: easily
The property lost memory (RAM), nonvolatile memory (ROM, flash memory etc.) or any combination of them.System storage
Device 106 may include operating system 120, one or more is using 122 and program data 124.In some embodiments,
It may be arranged to be operated using program data 124 on an operating system using 122.Program data 124 includes instruction, in root
According in calculating equipment 100 of the invention, program data 124 includes for executing power supply company's scale of investment optimization method 200
Instruction.
Calculating equipment 100 can also include facilitating from various interface equipments (for example, output equipment 142, Peripheral Interface
144 and communication equipment 146) to basic configuration 102 via the communication of bus/interface controller 130 interface bus 140.Example
Output equipment 142 include graphics processing unit 148 and audio treatment unit 150.They can be configured as facilitate via
One or more port A/V 152 is communicated with the various external equipments of such as display or loudspeaker etc.Outside example
If interface 144 may include serial interface controller 154 and parallel interface controller 156, they, which can be configured as, facilitates
Via one or more port I/O 158 and such as input equipment (for example, keyboard, mouse, pen, voice-input device, touch
Input equipment) or the external equipment of other peripheral hardwares (such as printer, scanner etc.) etc communicated.Exemplary communication is set
Standby 146 may include network controller 160, can be arranged to convenient for via one or more communication port 164 and one
A or multiple other calculate communication of the equipment 162 by network communication link.
Network communication link can be an example of communication media.Communication media can be usually presented as in such as carrier wave
Or computer readable instructions, data structure, program module in the modulated data signal of other transmission mechanisms etc, and can
To include any information delivery media." modulated data signal " can such signal, one in its data set or more
It is a or it change can the mode of encoded information in the signal carry out.As unrestricted example, communication media can be with
Wired medium including such as cable network or private line network etc, and it is such as sound, radio frequency (RF), microwave, infrared
(IR) the various wireless mediums or including other wireless mediums.Term computer-readable medium used herein may include depositing
Both storage media and communication media.
Calculating equipment 100 can be implemented as server, such as file server, database server, application program service
Device and WEB server etc. also can be implemented as a part of portable (or mobile) electronic equipment of small size, these electronic equipments
It can be such as cellular phone, personal digital assistant (PDA), personal media player device, wireless network browsing apparatus, individual
Helmet, application specific equipment or may include any of the above function mixing apparatus.Calculating equipment 100 can also be real
It is now the personal computer for including desktop computer and notebook computer configuration.In some embodiments, equipment 100 is calculated
It is configured as executing power supply company's scale of investment optimization method 200.
It should be appreciated that power supply company's under-capitalization and power supply company's overcapitalization all should be T-D tariff regulator and be supervised
The situation that pipe person should avoid the occurrence of.The power supply company's scale of investment for showing as permitting of power supply company's under-capitalization is not able to satisfy
Load growth and user power utilization quality requirement, and will cause shortened equipment life, electricity market obstruction even power generation safety
Accident.And power supply company's overcapitalization is to permit the significantly advanced customer charge of power supply company's scale of investment to increase and user power utilization matter
Amount demand can cause the problems such as utilization rate of equipment and installations is low, and power supply company invests utilization rate decline, and will cause next supervision period use
The T-D tariff that family undertakes rises violently, and then causes next supervision period-power-supplying corporate investment and tighten or under-capitalize situation.Cause
This, power supply company's scale of investment optimization aim is based on operation enterprise, power supply company to power supply company's assets status, power supply company
On the basis of operation conditions and electric power demand forecasting, the investment determined under the target for meeting power supply company's the safe and economic operation is determined
Scale.
For this purpose, the present invention focuses on to analyze the status of power supply company, China investment situation especially scale of investment, me is constructed
Power supply enterprise, state scale of investment model, and the investment decision of power supply enterprise is carried out by system dynamics and optimized calculation method
Optimization analysis, it is intended to propose effective scale of investment optimization method, be mentioned for the scientific and fining of power supply enterprise's scale of investment
For using for reference and referring to.The present invention uses system dynamic modeling, fully considers the dynamic complexity of power supply enterprise's scale of investment；Mould
The cause and effect driving relationship of T-D tariff and power supply company's scale of investment is established in quasi- items business conduct；Realize the investment of power supply enterprise
Scale management changes to systematic quantitative analysis from the qualitative analysis of frame and changes from unidirectional drive to closed loop feedback.
Wherein, the cause and effect driving relationship about T-D tariff and power supply company's scale of investment, Fig. 3 are shown according to the present invention
Power supply company's scale of investment of one embodiment optimizes logic cause-and-effect diagram.As shown in figure 3, being traditional confession in rectangle dotted line frame
Electric corporate investment's mode, electric enterprise are independently powered corporate investment according to self-operating target and load condition.Circle strokes and dots
Power supply company's investment system mode under T-D tariff oversight mechanism is indicated in wire frame.
In perfect condition, regulator is not influenced by power supply company network operator, is powered under T-D tariff oversight mechanism public
The operational mode of department's investment system is a typical single order concussion system, and T-D tariff controls target or more with T-D tariff
Fluctuation.However, regulator with by regulator's information there are asymmetry, provincial power supply company's T-D tariff regulator and supervision political affairs
Plan original intention is inconsistent, and power supply company's scale of investment may be unreasonable, will cause the situation of under-capitalization or overcapitalization.From working as
From the point of view of preceding T-D tariff appraises and decides situation, the unreasonable problem of scale of investment has made first appearance.
After T-D tariff reform is implemented, regulatory agency becomes power supply company's scale of investment policymaker, but regulatory agency
Power supply company can not be known more about than power supply company enterprise itself.The power supply company's scale of investment optimum ideals constructed herein are as schemed
4 established dotted line line style cause and effect connecting lines connect power supply company's enterprise plan scale of investment with scale of investment is permitted,
Under the premise of studying and judging T-D tariff supervision development trend, determine power supply company's investment to the mechanism of action of T-D tariff；Striving for
Under the guidance of rational investment size target, actively as implementation power supply company's scale of investment optimisation strategy；Actively and regulatory agency into
Row information exchange, reconciliation permit the contradiction of scale of investment and power supply company's planned investment scale, make final allowance scale of investment
It levels off to reasonable scale of investment, and then improves the economic benefit and social benefit of power supply company's investment.
Based on the optimization logic causality, the present invention provides a kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method, Fig. 2 shows
The flow chart of the optimization method 200 according to an embodiment of the invention is such as set in calculating suitable for executing in calculating equipment
It is executed in standby 100.
As described in Figure 2, this method starts from step S210.In step S210, establishes T-D tariff and power supply company invests
First simulation model of scale, first simulation model calculate the allowance scale of investment of power supply company based on T-D tariff.
Meanwhile in step S220, the second simulation model of power supply company's scale of investment and T-D tariff is established, this second
Simulation model calculates T-D tariff fluctuation based on the intended investment scale of power supply company.
First simulation model calculates from the primary condition and constraint condition of current power supply company's enterprise operation and permits throwing
Money scale, to promote the assurance to T-D tariff regulatory constraints situation.Specifically, the allowance that power supply company is calculated in the model is thrown
The step of money scale includes: based on T-D tariff and to cross the expected allowance income of net power quantity predicting calculating；Money based on power supply company
The allowance income that production scale, the various rate tax rates and operation and maintenance expense level calculation last issue assets are formed；Permit receiving by expected
Enter to deduct the allowance income that last assets are formed, obtains new assets income amount；By new assets income amount divided by expection
The various rate tax rates and efficient portfolio conversion ratio obtain permit scale of investment.Wherein, the various rate tax rates are for example including increment
The tax tax rate, education and the surtax tax rate, the urban construction maintenance tax rate, income tax rate etc..
Basal conditions of second simulation model based on current power supply company's economy, scale of investment is invested according to schedule,
To emulate the T-D tariff change conditions under planned investment scale, for formulating scale of investment optimisation strategy.The meter of the model
Calculating logic is power supply company's scale of investment in supervision period to be extracted, according to T-D tariff based on current power supply company's project report
It appraises and decides method and calculates T-D tariff change conditions.Fig. 4 shows the schematic diagram of the two simulation models, and the first simulation model is used
In constraint of the model T-D tariff to scale of investment, the second simulation model is for specifying scale of investment optimisation strategy.Fig. 5 and Fig. 6
Respectively illustrate the schematic diagram of the first, second simulation model, those skilled in the art combine Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 and it is existing it is known often
Every intermediate parameters and final argument can be calculated in model by knowing (calculation methods of some common parameters in such as this field).
The interaction mechanism of T-D tariff and power supply company's investment can be grasped, effectively by Liang Ge simulation model power supply enterprise to supply
Power supply company's scale of investment that electric company formulates science provides important foundation.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the first and/or second model may include that following formula calculates:
(1) efficient portfolio and depreciation cost calculate
Current efficient portfolio=end of term efficient portfolio+current budgets for operation；
Increase the current investment * efficient portfolio conversion ratio of efficient portfolio=power supply company in phase newly；
Asset depreciation volume=end of term efficient portfolio * is averaged asset depreciation rate；
End of term efficient portfolio=INTEG (increases efficient portfolio-asset depreciation volume, efficient portfolio initial value newly) in+phase, wherein
The meaning of INTEG (x, y) function are as follows: y is initial value；X is that having a net increase of of recycling each time is value added, equal to the added value in the circulation
Subtract decreasing value.With " end of term efficient portfolio=INTEG (increases efficient portfolio-asset depreciation volume newly, efficient portfolio is initial in the+phase
Value) " for, end of term efficient portfolio is equal to initial value and has a net increase of value plus each period (recycling each time).
Depreciation cost=end of term efficient portfolio * is averaged asset depreciation.
(2) operation and maintenance expense calculates:
The reduction amount of the corresponding operation and maintenance cost for removing labour cost of asset retirement, reference units this assets correspond to history
The rate situation of asset size is referring to reduction.
Asset retirement rate=(retired Net asset value/retired assets salvage value rate)/beginning efficient portfolio；
Operation and maintenance expense reduction volume=end of term efficient portfolio * asset retirement rate * history run maintenance expense；
Operation and maintenance cost calculation formula in addition to workers' pay are as follows:
Newly-increased fee of material=INTEG (+newly-increased fee of material-fee of material is reduced, and Historical Materials take)；
Newly-increased price for repairing=INTEG (+newly-increased price for repairing-price for repairing is reduced, history price for repairing)；
Newly-increased other fees=INTEG (+newly-increased other fees-other fees are reduced, history other fees).
Workers' pay and current fee of material calculation formula are as follows:
Current workers' pay=INTEG (workers' pay troughput, history workers' pay)；
Current operation and maintenance expense=current price for repairing+current other fees+current fee of material+current workers' pay operation money
Gold=current operation and maintenance expense * 0.25.
(3) permit income calculation:
Permit earning rate=cost of equity capital * (1- asset-liability ratio)+cost of debt capital * asset-liability ratio
Permit income=current efficient portfolio * and permits earning rate.
(4) tax calculates:
Urban construction and the additional tax of education=(current allowance income * VAT rate-current fee of material * value-added tax tax
Rate) * is educated and the surtax tax rate；
Income tax=current efficient portfolio * (1- asset-liability ratio) * permits earning rate * (1- income tax rate) * income tax
The tax rate；
Current tax=urban construction and the additional tax of education+income tax.
Permit scale of investment in (5) first simulation models to calculate:
Power supply company's intended investment increase income=expection permit taking in-the current current allowance income-of allowance cost-when
Phase tax；
The allowance income that last assets are formed=(it is expected that the newly-increased expected workers' pay of allowance income-current workers' pay * increases
Long rate)/((it is expected that newly-increased fee of material coefficient+expection, which increases price for repairing coefficient+expection newly, increases other fees coefficient newly) * 1.25+ is expected
Permit earning rate+average asset depreciation rate+(the expected asset-liability ratio of 1+) * it is expected permit the expected income tax rate of earning rate *+
The expected education additional city construction tax tax of (it is expected that permitting earning rate-expection increases fee of material coefficient newly) the expected VAT rate * of *
Rate)；
Power supply company's intended investment scale=expection efficient portfolio increases amount/efficient portfolio conversion ratio.
T-D tariff, which changes, in (6) first simulation models calculates:
The current scale of investment of power supply company=power supply company's planned investment scale * efficient portfolio conversion ratio；
T-D tariff=power supply company's intended investment is taken in/is expected transmission & distribution electricity.
Then, in step S230, target T-D tariff is input to the first simulation model, obtains the theory of power supply company
Permit scale of investment, and is compared with its actual planned investment scale.Wherein, target T-D tariff i.e. current planned
T-D tariff, to calculate the theoretical allowance scale of investment acquired under the T-D tariff.
Meanwhile in step S240, by the target scale of investment of power supply company to the second simulation model, theoretical transmission & distribution are obtained
Electricity price, and it is compared with actual T-D tariff.Wherein, target scale of investment i.e. current planned planned investment rule
Mould, to calculate the T-D tariff fluctuation acquired under the scale of investment.
Then, in step s 250, processing is optimized to the scale of investment of power supply company according to two kinds of comparing results.One
As, under target power transmission and distribution, when theoretical allowance scale of investment is less than actual planned investment scale, then represent power supply company
Allowance scale of investment it is too small, it is on the contrary then excessive.
Specifically, for power supply company's scale of investment Optimization Tactics Analysis, it will usually there is following two situation:
(1) it is too small situation one: to permit power supply company's scale of investment
It is to permit power supply company's scale of investment under target T-D tariff and be much smaller than planned investment that it is too small, which to permit scale of investment,
Scale is not able to satisfy the basic need of power supply company's development；Calculating in T-D tariff-power supply company's investment simulation model
As a result it is characterized under target T-D tariff, permits scale of investment and be less than power supply company's planned investment scale, is thrown in power supply company
Money-T-D tariff simulation model calculated result is T-D tariff rise after executive plan scale of investment.
Such situation is generally present in the early stage supervised using cost control as the T-D tariff of target, may supervise
More reasonable rate level and electricity price level is arranged in initial stage, and regulator is also likely to be present initial stage or continuous several period transmission & distribution
Electricity price growth rate is mentioned lower than what the growth rate, load growth level and user dependability of power supply company's investment project cost required
Height, it is to need power supply enterprise at this stage that forming cumulative effect, which causes allowance scale of investment not to be able to satisfy power supply company's development need,
Emphasis is needed to consider the problems of and cope with.
For this kind of situation, before newly supervision phase phase, power supply enterprise should play " user representative " effect, pay attention in region
Right of speech in power planning does real region power planning work, from user perspective, as far as possible scientific forecasting power supply company
Investment demand allows regulator to receive or as close as possible to power supply company, power supply enterprise investment planning scheme, reconciles and permit investment rule
The contradiction of mould and power supply enterprise's planned investment scale.
(2) it is excessive situation two: to permit power supply company's scale of investment
It is to permit power supply company's scale of investment in regulator far more than power supply enterprise that it is excessive, which to permit power supply company's scale of investment,
Power supply company's investment plan of formulation.This situation corresponds to T-D tariff-power supply company in power supply company's investment simulation model
The calculated result of investment simulation model is characterized in that expected power supply company's scale of investment is less than and permits power supply company's scale of investment, is supplying
Electric corporate investment-T-D tariff model calculated result is characterized under expected rate and permits power supply company's scale of investment
Under, T-D tariff sharp rises.
T-D tariff goes up and allowance scale of investment is more than to plan that the situation of desired value is generally present in T-D tariff supervision
After mechanism is mature, but T-D tariff supervision early stage may also be appeared in.In T-D tariff supervision, early stage regulatory agency may lead to
It crosses and forces down the expansion power supply company investment for permitting earning rate, it is also possible to which the mechanism of action of T-D tariff is recognized in power supply company's investment
Know insufficient and blindly expands power supply company's investment；The middle and later periods is appraised and decided in T-D tariff, the steering of T-D tariff supervision is to be actuated to
Main, T-D tariff supervisory system is more perfect at this time, and the information that regulatory agency grasps is more comprehensive, undergoes long-term cost control
T-D tariff supervision, the asset structure of power supply company persistently deteriorate, and operation difficulty is big, and maintenance cost is excessively high, and regulatory agency is at this time
It can consider to properly increase T-D tariff (permitting earning rate) and expand power supply company's scale of investment.
For this kind of situation, need to do further judgement to user's electricity price ability to take the burden.If price supervision department and electric power
User can receive T-D tariff rise, and power supply enterprise needs the expansion power supply company of appropriate cooperation regulatory agency to invest rule at this time
Line is dynamic, appropriate advance planning, and appropriate operation and maintenance expense to the power supply company's construction project that bundlees calls for bid.If price power consumer is not
It can receive T-D tariff rising range, power supply enterprise should adhere to reasonable government capital earning rate at this time, and refusal blindly expands power supply
Corporate investment's scale forces down the T-D tariff approved program of effective yield, and guidance regulator is reduced to conjunction for scale of investment is permitted
Reason is horizontal and keeps normal profit rate level, and power supply company's investment is made to tend to be reasonable.
It the following are certain power supply company, power supply bureau, prefecture-level city scale of investment simulation analysis, is constrained in constant T-D tariff first
Under allowance scale of investment simulation analysis, in simulations, transmission & distribution electricity in 2017 is 70,000,000,000 kilowatt hours, and annual growth is
3.4%；When T-D tariff guarantor's initial value is 115 yuan/megawatt, and keep constant；Referring to power supply bureau asset size in 2016
It is horizontal with 2014-2016 history run maintenance expense rate, it is invested according to scale of investment is permitted, simulation data result is as schemed
Shown in 7a-7c.It can be seen that allowance scale of investment calculated result is consistent with newly-increased efficient portfolio scale tendency from Fig. 7 a, in stabilization
Transmission & distribution electricity increase and fixed T-D tariff under, permitting scale of investment following two periods has been more than 20,000,000,000, can be effective
Meet the needs of power supply company, this area development.
" efficient portfolio conversion ratio " is the significant variable for influencing to permit scale of investment, and the numerical value setting in model executes transmission & distribution
" first supervision period, newly-increased investment are included in fixed assets ratio and calculate by being no more than 75% " clause in electricity price Regulation Policy, and
Second period is set as 85% afterwards, then period backward is set as 90%.The efficient portfolio conversion in first supervision period 75%
It is higher that rate causes a cycle to permit scale of investment.In addition, this is in fact reduced about the policy of efficient portfolio conversion ratio
First period-power-supplying corporate investment earning rate embodies and the supervision of power supply company's investment impulsion is inhibited to be intended to.And second prison
The reason of pipe period allowance scale of investment decline, which is that efficient portfolio conversion ratio increases and first supervision period great number is newly-increased, to be included in
Imitate the coefficient result of assets.
The different supervision period price for repairing upper limit results of measuring of table 1
| Period | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Current price for repairing (Wan Yuan) | 230,400 | 224,000 | 216,500 | 213,600 | 214,300 | 218,400 |
It can be seen that the history price for repairing level of Dongguan power supply bureau is higher from Fig. 7 c and table 1, following 2 prisons of simulation result
The pipe period, which needs to reduce, can just meet regulatory requirements, and second needs strict control to repair under the following T-D tariff oversight mechanism
Take, and the control pressure of fee of material and other fees is little.
Followed by planned investment scale and T-D tariff change simulation analysis, and in simulations, transmission & distribution electricity in 2017 is 700
Hundred million kilowatt hours, annual growth 3.4%；Referring to 12 layout data of power supply bureau, first period-power-supplying corporate investment scale
It is set as 14,400,000,000 yuan, is set as 3% referring to load growth rate per each period thereafter, referring to Dongguan power supply bureau assets rule in 2016
Mould and 2014-2016 history run maintenance expense rate are horizontal, and simulation data result is as shown in Figure 8 a-8d.Investment rule according to schedule
Mould is invested, power supply bureau's efficient portfolio amount holding accelerate, be mainly based upon efficient portfolio conversion ratio promotion and
The scale of investment of exponential increase is assumed.As shown in Figure 8 b, in various operation and maintenance expenses, fee of material, other fees and workers' pay
It keeps increasing, price for repairing rises after falling before, and illustrates that history maintenance expense level is higher, needs in following 2 period strict controls.
Fig. 8 c and Fig. 8 d are T-D tariff change conditions under planned investment scale, and according to investment plan, the first period, the power supply bureau was initial
It is subsequent several when a cycle T-D tariff is reduced to 85.92 yuan/megawatt when T-D tariff is 89.82 yuan/megawatt
Period T-D tariff mildly rises, when the 5th period T-D tariff just rises to 112.6 yuan/megawatt.
According to simulation result, Main Conclusions has a following two points: first, which can suitably expand assets.It surveys
It calculates the results show that the scale of investment under expected T-D tariff of the power supply bureau exceeds planned investment scale 50%, assets expand
Space is larger；Under planned investment scale, T-D tariff mildly goes up.T-D tariff supervision will not cause to invest to the power supply bureau
Tighten quagmire, which can actively develop power supply company's upgrading action.Second, the power supply bureau is currently more outstanding
Problem is that price for repairing is excessively high.The power supply bureau needs strict control price for repairing, can should repair some power supply companies in planning
Reason project is changed to power supply company's transformation project, the price for repairing in the supervision period is cut down, to adapt to regulatory constraints.
According to the technique and scheme of the present invention, Liang Ge power supply company scale of investment emulation mould is established based on system dynamics
Type can effectively grasp the interaction mechanism of T-D tariff and power supply company's investment by Liang Ge simulation model power supply enterprise,
The power supply company's scale of investment for formulating science for power supply company provides important foundation.The present invention can either effectively transport model
For in the Business operation of power supply enterprise, and its resource input can be made according to the operations objective of enterprise timely, effective
Adjustment.Therefore, the model is for promoting power supply enterprise's production and operation situation and optimizing its resources allocation ability with very heavy
The meaning wanted.
Specifically, the present invention is based on the visual angles of system dynamics, analyze the investment demand of In Dongguan power supply company, consider political affairs
The interaction of each link (variable), interactional dynamic relationship in mansion power transmission and distribution price adjustment factor, T-D tariff calculating,
Establish power supply company's scale of investment simulation model under T-D tariff oversight mechanism.In addition, the present invention is in T-D tariff supervision
The interaction of government and enterprise, power supply company is analyzed, and proposes restrictive power supply company's scale of investment optimisation strategy, and then improve
The Social benefit and economic benefit of the restrictive power supply company's scale of investment of power supply bureau.
On this basis, power supply enterprise can be improved to T-D tariff by following " three foundation " Optimized Measures
The adaptability of supervision promotes supervision and institutionalized good interaction.First is that establishing power supply company's investment planning and T-D tariff
Supervise the investment planning management system being mutually connected.Supervision the period be using economical regulation over the next several years as starting point " minor cycle ",
And power supply company is to develop into starting point " large period " with region entirety electric power development, energy resource structure planning horizon, supervision week
Difference between phase and power supply company planning horizon is objective reality.Effectively it is connected ability with planning therefore, it is necessary to will supervise
Promote supervision and institutionalized good interaction.Second is that the Executive Team for establishing profession strengthens investment planning management supervision reply duty
Energy.Effectively to carry out various work relevant to supervision, it is ensured that it is high-quality, efficiently complete regulatory agency's performance assessment criteria, it is maximum
Integral benefit of the change company under inspection framework, power supply enterprise need to set up the supervision department or team of specific responsibility property, set up transmission & distribution
Electricity price is appraised and decided and reports post, solicits the personnel for closing rule experience with supervision, even possessing regulatory agency's working experience, strengthens
Function is coped in the supervision of management of investment team.Third is that establishing the fixation working mechanism for facing regulatory agency.It is through-flow with ditch examining
In terms of journey, power supply enterprise needs and regulatory agency keeps linking up in each stage in supervision period, just can guarantee that regulatory agency examines
The reasonable demand of core target and power supply enterprise can access effective coordinate and processing.
A9, the optimization method as described in A4, wherein model includes permitting tax to calculate: urban construction and the additional tax of education
=(current allowance income * VAT rate-current fee of material * VAT rate) * education and the surtax tax rate；Income tax=when
Phase efficient portfolio * (1- asset-liability ratio) * permits earning rate * (1- income tax rate) * income tax rate；Tax=urban construction
And the additional tax of education+income tax.
Various technologies described herein are realized together in combination with hardware or software or their combination.To the present invention
Method and apparatus or the process and apparatus of the present invention some aspects or part can take insertion tangible media, such as it is soft
The form of program code (instructing) in disk, CD-ROM, hard disk drive or other any machine readable storage mediums,
Wherein when program is loaded into the machine of such as computer etc, and is executed by the machine, the machine becomes to practice this hair
Bright equipment.
In the case where program code executes on programmable computers, calculates equipment and generally comprise processor, processor
Readable storage medium (including volatile and non-volatile memory and or memory element), at least one input unit, and extremely
A few output device.Wherein, memory is configured for storage program code；Processor is configured for according to the memory
Instruction in the said program code of middle storage executes power supply company's scale of investment optimization method of the invention.
By way of example and not limitation, computer-readable medium includes computer storage media and communication media.It calculates
Machine readable medium includes computer storage media and communication media.Computer storage medium storage such as computer-readable instruction,
The information such as data structure, program module or other data.Communication media is generally modulated with carrier wave or other transmission mechanisms etc.
Data-signal processed passes to embody computer readable instructions, data structure, program module or other data including any information
Pass medium.Above any combination is also included within the scope of computer-readable medium.
In the instructions provided here, algorithm and display not with any certain computer, virtual system or other
Equipment is inherently related.Various general-purpose systems can also be used together with example of the invention.As described above, it constructs this kind of
Structure required by system is obvious.In addition, the present invention is also not directed to any particular programming language.It should be understood that can
With using various programming languages realize summary of the invention described herein, and the description that language-specific is done above be for
Disclosure preferred forms of the invention.
In the instructions provided here, numerous specific details are set forth.It is to be appreciated, however, that implementation of the invention
Example can be practiced without these specific details.In some instances, well known method, knot is not been shown in detail
Structure and technology, so as not to obscure the understanding of this specification.
Similarly, it should be understood that in order to simplify the disclosure and help to understand one or more of the various inventive aspects,
Above in the description of exemplary embodiment of the present invention, each feature of the invention is grouped together into single implementation sometimes
In example, figure or descriptions thereof.However, the disclosed method should not be interpreted as reflecting the following intention: i.e. required to protect
Shield the present invention claims than feature more features expressly recited in each claim.More precisely, as following
As claims reflect, inventive aspect is all features less than single embodiment disclosed above.Therefore, it abides by
Thus the claims for following specific embodiment are expressly incorporated in the specific embodiment, wherein each claim itself
As a separate embodiment of the present invention.
Those skilled in the art should understand that the module of the equipment in example disclosed herein or unit or groups
Part can be arranged in equipment as depicted in this embodiment, or alternatively can be positioned at and the equipment in the example
In different one or more equipment.Module in aforementioned exemplary can be combined into a module or furthermore be segmented into multiple
Submodule.
Those skilled in the art will understand that can be carried out adaptively to the module in the equipment in embodiment
Change and they are arranged in one or more devices different from this embodiment.It can be the module or list in embodiment
Member or component are combined into a module or unit or component, and furthermore they can be divided into multiple submodule or subelement or
Sub-component.Other than such feature and/or at least some of process or unit exclude each other, it can use any
Combination is to all features disclosed in this specification (including adjoint claim, abstract and attached drawing) and so disclosed
All process or units of what method or apparatus are combined.Unless expressly stated otherwise, this specification is (including adjoint power
Benefit require, abstract and attached drawing) disclosed in each feature can carry out generation with an alternative feature that provides the same, equivalent, or similar purpose
It replaces.
In addition, it will be appreciated by those of skill in the art that although some embodiments described herein include other embodiments
In included certain features rather than other feature, but the combination of the feature of different embodiments mean it is of the invention
Within the scope of and form different embodiments.For example, in the following claims, embodiment claimed is appointed
One of meaning can arbitrary combination come using.
In addition, be described as herein can be by the processor of computer system or by executing by some in the embodiment
The combination of method or method element that other devices of the function are implemented.Therefore, have for implementing the method or method
The processor of the necessary instruction of element forms the device for implementing this method or method element.In addition, Installation practice
Element described in this is the example of following device: the device be used for implement as in order to implement the purpose of the invention element performed by
Function.
As used in this, unless specifically stated, come using ordinal number " first ", " second ", " third " etc.
Description plain objects, which are merely representative of, is related to the different instances of similar object, and is not intended to imply that the object being described in this way must
Must have the time it is upper, spatially, sequence aspect or given sequence in any other manner.
Although the embodiment according to limited quantity describes the present invention, above description, the art are benefited from
It is interior it is clear for the skilled person that in the scope of the present invention thus described, it can be envisaged that other embodiments.Additionally, it should be noted that
Language used in this specification primarily to readable and introduction purpose and select, rather than in order to explain or limit
Determine subject of the present invention and selects.Therefore, without departing from the scope and spirit of the appended claims, for this
Many modifications and changes are obvious for the those of ordinary skill of technical field.For the scope of the present invention, to this
Invent done disclosure be it is illustrative and not restrictive, it is intended that the scope of the present invention be defined by the claims appended hereto.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of power supply company's scale of investment optimization method, suitable for being executed in calculating equipment, which comprises
The first simulation model of power supply company's scale of investment and T-D tariff is established, first simulation model is based on T-D tariff
Calculate the allowance scale of investment of power supply company；
The second simulation model of power supply company's scale of investment and T-D tariff is established, second simulation model is based on power supply company
Intended investment scale calculate T-D tariff fluctuation；
Target T-D tariff is input to first simulation model, the theoretical of power supply company is obtained and permits scale of investment, and with
Its actual planned investment scale comparison；
The target scale of investment of power supply company is input to second simulation model, obtains theoretical T-D tariff, and by its with
Actual T-D tariff comparison；And
Processing is optimized to the scale of investment of power supply company according to two kinds of comparing results.
2. optimization method as described in claim 1, wherein rule are invested in the allowance for calculating power supply company based on T-D tariff
The step of mould includes:
Based on T-D tariff and cross the expected allowance income of net power quantity predicting calculating；
The standard that asset size, the various rate tax rates and operation and maintenance expense level calculation last issue assets based on power supply company are formed
Perhaps it takes in；
By the expected allowance income permitting income deduction last issue assets and being formed, new assets income amount is obtained；
It obtains new assets income amount to permit scale of investment divided by the expected various rate tax rates and efficient portfolio conversion ratio.
3. optimization method as described in claim 1, wherein include following formula in first simulation model:
Power supply company's intended investment increases income=expection and permits income-current current current tax of allowance income-of allowance cost-
Gold；
The allowance income that last assets are formed=(it is expected that the newly-increased expected workers' pay of allowance income-current workers' pay * increases
Rate)/((it is expected that newly-increased fee of material coefficient+expection, which increases price for repairing coefficient+expection newly, increases other fees coefficient newly) * 1.25+ is expected quasi-
Perhaps earning rate+average asset depreciation rate+(the expected asset-liability ratio of 1+) expected income tax rate of the expected allowance earning rate * of *+(pre-
Phase permits earning rate-expection and increases fee of material coefficient newly) the expected education additional city construction tax tax rate of the expected VAT rate * of *)；
Power supply company's intended investment scale=expection efficient portfolio increases amount/efficient portfolio conversion ratio.
4. optimization method as claimed in any one of claims 1-3, wherein include following public affairs in second simulation model
Formula:
The current scale of investment of power supply company=power supply company's planned investment scale * efficient portfolio conversion ratio；
T-D tariff=power supply company's intended investment is taken in/is expected transmission & distribution electricity.
5. optimization method as claimed in claim 4, wherein model includes that efficient portfolio and depreciation cost calculate:
Current efficient portfolio=end of term efficient portfolio+current budgets for operation；
Increase the current investment * efficient portfolio conversion ratio of efficient portfolio=power supply company in phase newly；
Asset depreciation volume=end of term efficient portfolio * is averaged asset depreciation rate；
End of term efficient portfolio=INTEG (increases efficient portfolio-asset depreciation volume, efficient portfolio initial value newly) in+phase, wherein
INTEG (x, y) is integral function；
Depreciation cost=end of term efficient portfolio * is averaged asset depreciation.
6. optimization method as claimed in claim 4, wherein model includes that operation and maintenance expense calculates:
Asset retirement rate=(retired Net asset value/retired assets salvage value rate)/beginning efficient portfolio；
Operation and maintenance expense reduction volume=end of term efficient portfolio * asset retirement rate * history run maintenance expense；
Newly-increased fee of material=INTEG (+newly-increased fee of material-fee of material is reduced, and Historical Materials take)；
Newly-increased price for repairing=INTEG (+newly-increased price for repairing-price for repairing is reduced, history price for repairing)；
Newly-increased other fees=INTEG (+newly-increased other fees-other fees are reduced, history other fees).
7. optimization method as claimed in claim 4, wherein model includes that workers' pay and current fee of material calculate:
Current workers' pay=INTEG (workers' pay troughput, history workers' pay)；
Current operation and maintenance expense=current price for repairing+current other fees+current fee of material+current workers' pay
Budgets for operation=current operation and maintenance expense * 0.25.
8. optimization method as claimed in claim 4, wherein model includes permitting income calculation:
Permit earning rate=cost of equity capital * (1- asset-liability ratio)+cost of debt capital * asset-liability ratio；
Permit income=current efficient portfolio * and permits earning rate.
9. a kind of calculating equipment, comprising:
At least one processor；And
At least one processor including computer program instructions；
At least one processor and the computer program instructions are configured as making together at least one described processor
It obtains the calculating equipment and executes such as method of any of claims 1-8.
10. a kind of computer readable storage medium for storing one or more programs, one or more of programs include instruction,
Described instruction by server when being executed, so that the server executes appointing in method described in -8 according to claim 1
One method.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110110924A (en) * | 2019-05-05 | 2019-08-09 | 国网经济技术研究院有限公司 | Power distribution network investment scale optimization method and device and computing equipment |
| CN110197337A (en) * | 2019-06-05 | 2019-09-03 | 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | A kind of power grid enterprises' economic activity quantitative analysis method and system |
| CN112215459A (en) * | 2020-09-02 | 2021-01-12 | 南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司 | Power distribution method and device based on power grid investment scale prediction |
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| CN106469381A (en) * | 2015-08-14 | 2017-03-01 | 国网冀北电力有限公司 | A kind of T-D tariff calculating system and its measuring method |
| CN107330542A (en) * | 2017-05-26 | 2017-11-07 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale |
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| CN106469381A (en) * | 2015-08-14 | 2017-03-01 | 国网冀北电力有限公司 | A kind of T-D tariff calculating system and its measuring method |
| CN107330542A (en) * | 2017-05-26 | 2017-11-07 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of method of analysis optimization electric grid investment scale |
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| CN110110924A (en) * | 2019-05-05 | 2019-08-09 | 国网经济技术研究院有限公司 | Power distribution network investment scale optimization method and device and computing equipment |
| CN110197337A (en) * | 2019-06-05 | 2019-09-03 | 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | A kind of power grid enterprises' economic activity quantitative analysis method and system |
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Application publication date: 20190423 |