CN107120721A - A kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method - Google Patents
A kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method Download PDFInfo
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- CN107120721A CN107120721A CN201710381531.3A CN201710381531A CN107120721A CN 107120721 A CN107120721 A CN 107120721A CN 201710381531 A CN201710381531 A CN 201710381531A CN 107120721 A CN107120721 A CN 107120721A
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F24—HEATING; RANGES; VENTILATING
- F24D—DOMESTIC- OR SPACE-HEATING SYSTEMS, e.g. CENTRAL HEATING SYSTEMS; DOMESTIC HOT-WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS; ELEMENTS OR COMPONENTS THEREFOR
- F24D19/00—Details
- F24D19/10—Arrangement or mounting of control or safety devices
- F24D19/1006—Arrangement or mounting of control or safety devices for water heating systems
- F24D19/1009—Arrangement or mounting of control or safety devices for water heating systems for central heating
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2119/00—Details relating to the type or aim of the analysis or the optimisation
- G06F2119/08—Thermal analysis or thermal optimisation
Abstract
It is the prediction of outdoor temperature first the invention discloses a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method, according to outdoor temperature predicted value, certain time load regulation supply and return water temperature, overcomes the hysteresis quality for adopting the pipeline network regulation adjusted in advance.The outdoor temperature of next day is predicted according to the weather forecast of local history meteorological data and meteorological department, and using the value as heat load prediction master data；Next to that the prediction of thermic load, i.e., calculate the thermic load curve of next day according to outdoor temperature.The present invention is to realize the advanced dynamic regulation of climate compensator, rational prediction has been carried out to outdoor temperature, this method adjusts the heating medium parameter of heating system according to the thermic load value set in advance according to regulation model, thermal source is changed into active heat supply from original wide in range passive heat supply, on the premise of ensureing that user indoor temperature is stable, the runing adjustment index of heating system at the appointed time is provided in advance, heating efficiency is improved, and reduces heat supply energy consumption.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method.
Background technology
The purpose that heating system carries out heat supply to heating building is, in order to meet user's hot comfort demand, and to ensure its room
Interior temperature within limits, with the change of outdoor temperature, prevents user from the too low or too high phenomenon of indoor temperature occur,
And system is in the process of running, due to the change of the factors such as outdoor weather condition, the thermic load of building can occur to change accordingly
Become.Therefore, in order that the change of heat supply amount and user's thermic load is adapted, it is necessary to should be carried out to the heating load of thermal source corresponding
Regulation, i.e. heating system should carry out heating load regulation according to the thermic load situation of change of building, to realize heating according to need,
So as to ensure that the indoor temperature of user meets hot comfort demand, the purpose of heating energy-saving is reached.
Exactly a kind of automatic control energy-saving device of heat supply regulation of climate compensator, its purpose adjusted is to make heating system
Heating load can be adjusted with the change of outdoor temperature, to realize heating according to need.The climate compensator used at present is provided with temperature
Compensated curve, the heating agent output parameter of thermal source is adjusted according to the outdoor temperature of instantaneous acquiring, makes the heating load and user's heat of system
Load matches, and realizes the dynamic regulation of system heating load.
Current system operation regulation is built upon on the basis of stable state calculating, the outdoor temp drawn up according to regulation pattern die
The adjustment curve of change is spent, the supply and return water temperature of heat supply network is adjusted.In regulation control process, due to adopting i.e. for outdoor temperature
Adjust, because heating network is a huger system, pipeline network regulation has the hysteresis quality of user terminal, cause the mistake of regulation
Very.Advanced prediction 24h outdoor temperature changing rule is unable to, the passive heat supply at thermal source is caused, both increases heat cost,
Also the dynamic characteristic of building thermic load can not be reflected, it is impossible to which meet user well uses heat demand.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method.
To achieve these goals, the technical scheme that the present invention takes is as follows：
A kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method, is the prediction of outdoor temperature first, i.e., meteorological according to local history
The weather forecast of data and meteorological department is predicted to the outdoor temperature of next day, and regard the value as the basic of heat load prediction
Data；Next to that the prediction of thermic load, i.e., calculate the thermic load curve of next day according to outdoor temperature.
Further, on the premise of temperature is certain indoors, Heating Load depends primarily on the size of outdoor temperature, and
In fact, when carrying out load prediction, the outdoor temperature of second day is difficult to directly obtain, to shift to an earlier date 24h prediction heating and bear
Lotus, first has to be predicted the outdoor temp angle value of second day；The earth receives solar radiant heat and releases heat at night daytime,
Outdoor temperature, with time consecutive variations, shows obvious 24h cyclic fluctuations in diel；Outdoor temperature among one day
Minimum is generally present in before and after sunrise, and reaches peak in afternoon 14-15, therefore, and 24h week is carried out to outdoor temperature
Phase property is predicted；Outdoor temperature is predicted using Shape Factor Method, Shape Factor Method is worth according to history outdoor temperature data
History form factor and the highest forecast from local meteorological observatory, minimum temperature are predicted to following outdoor temperature, and at one
After predetermined period terminates, continuous renewal amendment is carried out to form factor by outdoor temperature measured value.
Further, the Shape Factor Method is one-stage process；One-stage process outdoor temperature predictor formula is：
t′i=ai(t′h-t′l)+t′l(3-1)；
In formula, ai--- the predicting shape factor of i-th hour；
t′i--- the outdoor temperature predicted value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
t′l--- prediction outdoor temperature minimum (DEG C)；
t′h--- prediction outdoor temperature peak (DEG C)；
After one predetermined period terminates, compare the outdoor temperature measured value and predicted value on the same day, to predicting shape factor ai
It is modified, the outdoor temperature that the revised new shape factor is used for next day is predicted, to the temperature measured value t for knowing i-th houri
When, it is modified with reference to the form factor at actual measurement form factor moment to this；The actual measurement shape obtained by the measured data of i-th hour
The shape factor is：
In formula, ai1--- the actual measurement form factor of i-th hour；
ti--- the actual measurement outdoor temp angle value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
tl--- actual measurement outdoor temperature minimum (DEG C)；
th--- actual measurement outdoor temperature peak (DEG C)；
The revised new shape factor is：
a′i=ai(1-b)+ai1b (3-3)；
In formula, a 'i--- the revised new shape factor of i-th hour；
B --- forgetting factor.
Further, Shape Factor Method is it is determined that be according to daily temperature changing rule at the time of highest, minimum temperature
Determine；Due to the randomness that outdoor temperature changes, for anomalous weather, the situation that outdoor temperature is gradually reduced, it may appear that one
Fixed deviation, on-line amending is carried out to outdoor temperature predicted value, improves the accuracy of prediction, and on-line amending is flat using simply sliding
Equal method.
Further, the simple moving average method is to seek weighted average by the data to a certain period in past, and will
Average value as a certain period in the future predicted value；Outdoor temperature is calculated using simple moving average method as follows：
tτ+1=f0×tτ+f1×tτ-1+f2×tτ2+…+fn×tτ-n(3-7)；
In formula, tτ+1--- the temperature prediction value (DEG C) at the moment of τ+1；
fi--- disturbance degree of the temperature value in preceding i sampling period to subsequent time temperature；
N --- the length of predicted time section, the size of its value reflects reaction speed of the predicted value to data variation；
Simple moving average method is predicted using the data of adjacent moment to the data of subsequent time, prediction data sampling
Interval is shorter, and prediction accuracy is higher, uses the prediction data sampling interval for 1h, and predicted time segment length n is 2, that is, utilizes and work as
Preceding temperature value, the temperature value of previous hour, the temperature value of first two hours predict the temperature value of this one hour after；Each phase temperature is gone through
The weight coefficient of history data is respectively：f0=1/2, f1=1/3, f2=f0×f1=1/6 ... ... fn=fn-2×fn-1。
Further, the regulation period according to weather compensation, the outdoor temperature in the correspondence period is taken into weighted average,
As the outdoor temperature quantized value in the period, quantitative formula is：
In formula,--- the outdoor temperature quantized value (DEG C) of corresponding period；
twi--- the moment of day part i-th corresponding outdoor temp angle value (DEG C)；
N --- number at the time of being included in the corresponding period.
Further, the computational methods of the heat load prediction value are：After buildings exterior-protected structure is determined, building is adopted
Warm heat load is directly proportional to indoor/outdoor temperature-difference, and when indoor temperature keeps setting value, thermic load depends on the size of outdoor temperature；
Within each regulation period of climate compensator, the fluctuation of outdoor temperature is impacted less to the size of thermic load, now, foundation
Day part outdoor temperature quantized value is calculated by steady state heat transfer thermic load, meets required precision, carry calculation formula
For
Q=Qs(tn-tw)/(tn-twj) (3-12a)；
Qs=qAA (3-12b)；
In formula, Q --- heating actual heating load (W)；
Qs--- design space-heating load (W)；
qA--- Heating Design heating index (W/m2)；
A --- construction area (m2)；
tn--- indoor design temperature (DEG C)；
tw--- heating outdoor temperature (DEG C)；
twj--- outdoor design temperature for heating (DEG C).
Further, weather compensation dynamic regulation model is set up：By predicting the whole day outdoor temperature of 24 hours, dynamic is adjusted
Save thermic load；Climate compensator passes through to once net hot water network trackside and secondary network heat user side in indirect type heating system
The regulation and control of heating parameter, realize the compensation adjustment of system heating load；In thermal substation, the once heating load of net hot water network trackside
For：
Q1=1.163G1(τg-τh) (3-13)；
Secondary network heating user side heating load be：
Q2=1.163G2(tg-th) (3-14)；
The heat exchange amount of heat exchanger is：
Q '=KF Δs t (3-15)；
In formula, τg、τh--- the confession once netted, return water temperature (DEG C)；
tg、th--- the confession of secondary network, return water temperature (DEG C)；
G1、G2--- the flow (m of first and second net3/h)；
The coefficient of heat transfer (the Wm of K --- heat exchanger-2·℃-1)；
F --- heat exchanger heat exchange area (m2)；
Δ t --- heat exchanger logarithmic mean temperature difference (LMTD) (DEG C)；
On the premise of heat transmission equipment heat loss is ignored, once net hot water network trackside, the heat supply of secondary network heating user side
Amount is equal to the heat exchange amount of heat exchanger between first and second net, i.e. Q1、Q2, Q ' three's correspondent equals, set up climate compensator first and second
To the regulation model of heating parameter in net.
Further, the regulation model of secondary network heating user side is set up：The user side that heats heat supply regulation is using matter regulation
Model, to keep the hydraulic regime of custom system stable；In matter regulation, the supply water temperature that user side is entered by changing is adjusted
System heating load, quantity of circulating water keeps constant；
Heat supply running adjusts fundamental formular：
WillSupplementary condition substitute into hot-water heating system heat supply running regulation fundamental formular (3-16), export matter regulation
Confession, the calculation formula of return water temperature：
In formula,--- with respect to the ratio between space heating load；
tn--- temperature (DEG C) is calculated in user room；
tg、th--- a certain outdoor temperature twUnder, the confession for the user that heats, return water temperature (DEG C)；
t′g、t′h--- outdoor design temperature for heating t 'wUnder, heating user is designed for, return water temperature (DEG C)；
The heat transfer index of b --- radiator, generally for common heat sink b=0.14~0.37；
In the case where heat user sets a certain indoor temperature, the confession for the user side that heats, return water temperature depend on relative confession
Warm heat load；Matter regulation carries out appropriateness to supply and return water temperature with the change value of thermic load caused by being changed as outdoor temperature and surpassed
Preceding regulation, so that the matter carried out according to the change of outdoor temperature is adjusted closer to actual and undistorted, so as to ensure user room
The stabilization of interior temperature.
Having the beneficial effect that acquired by the present invention：
The present invention is to realize the dynamic regulation of climate compensator, and rational prediction, this method root have been carried out to outdoor temperature
Heating medium parameter according to the thermic load value set in advance according to regulation model regulating system, by thermal source by original wide in range passive heat supply
It is changed into active heat supply, on the premise of ensureing that user indoor temperature is stable, the fortune of heating system at the appointed time is provided in advance
Row regulating index, on the premise of heating quality is ensured, improves heating efficiency, reduces heat supply energy consumption.
Brief description of the drawings
Accompanying drawing 1 is the schematic diagram of the workflow of climate compensator；
Accompanying drawing 2 is the schematic diagram that outdoor temperature Forecasting Methodology of the present invention is contrasted；
Accompanying drawing 3 is the schematic diagram of the on-line amending of outdoor temperature predicted value of the present invention；
Accompanying drawing 4 is present invention heating user side supply water temperature and the schematic diagram of relative space heating load.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present application, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present application is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation is described, it is clear that described embodiment is only some embodiments of the present application, rather than whole embodiments.Below
Description only actually at least individual exemplary embodiment is illustrative, is never used as to the application and its application or uses
Any limitation.Based on the embodiment in the application, those of ordinary skill in the art are not under the premise of creative work is made
The every other embodiment obtained, belongs to the scope of the application protection.
The purpose that heating system carries out heat supply to building is, in order to meet user's hot comfort demand, and to ensure that its is indoor
Temperature within limits, prevents user from the too low or too high phenomenon of indoor temperature occur, and system is in the process of running, by
In the change of the factors such as outdoor weather condition, corresponding change can occur for the thermic load of building.Therefore, in order that heat supply
Amount it is adaptable with the change of user's thermic load, it is necessary to the heating load of thermal source should be carried out it is corresponding adjust, i.e., heating system answers root
Heating load regulation is carried out according to the thermic load situation of change of building, to realize heating according to need, so as to ensure the Indoor Temperature of user
Degree meets hot comfort demand.Exactly a kind of automatic control energy-saving device of heat supply regulation of climate compensator, its purpose adjusted
It is heating system is realized heating according to need with the change of outdoor temperature.It is bent provided with temperature-compensating inside climate compensator
Line, the heating agent output parameter for making it adjust thermal source according to the situation of change of outdoor temperature makes the heating load and user's heat of system negative
Lotus matches, and realizes the dynamic regulation of system heating load.
As shown in Figure 1, climate compensator is arranged in the thermal substation of central heating system, mainly by controller, outdoor
Temperature sensor and confession, return water temperature sensor group into.
Climate compensator is to heat supply system according to the different outdoor temperature of different periods according to heating system with heat demand
System carries out the regulation of heating load.Specifically, some outdoor temperature is measured immediately in some period, change heating load immediately.Deposit
The problem of be：One be regulation Time segments division it is broad, such as 24 hours one day be divided into 4 regulation the periods, it is small equivalent to 6
Shi Weiyi period, outdoor temperature change is than larger in 6 small periods, if still supplying backwater by some actual measurement outdoor temperature regulation
Temperature, and the outdoor temperature deviation of actual change are larger.Keep supply water temperature is constant can cause that energy consumption is higher or user is not hot
Phenomenon, this physical presence larger error.
Two be due to the hysteresis quality of heating network regulation, and heating network is adjusted immediately according to the outdoor temperature of instantaneous acquiring
Heating load has distortion phenomenon.In view of above-mentioned 2 points, platform reason prediction outdoor temperature surpasses and adjusts heating network supply and return water temperature in advance,
It is the platform reason regulation premise of weather compensation, is the key of dynamic load regulation to the determination of the dynamic outdoor temperature of climate compensator
Method.
Current heating system runing adjustment is built upon on the basis of stable state calculating, the room drawn up according to regulation pattern die
The adjustment curve of outer temperature change, adjusts the supply and return water temperature of heat supply network.It is secondary due to can not accurately grasp in regulation control process
The outdoor temperature changing rule of day 24h, production scheduling personnel can only rule of thumb adjust the supply water temperature of thermal source, such a regulation
Mode causes the passive heat supply at thermal source, both increases heat cost, can not also reflect the dynamic characteristic of building thermic load,
User can not be met well uses heat demand.The runing adjustment of actual heating system is as user's request constantly becomes with control
Change, it should regulated and controled according to the changing rule of thermic load from dynamic angle.
Heat load prediction value corresponding to thermic load dynamic regulating method using different weather compensation periods passes through as foundation
Thermic load and supply and return water temperature relation curve, provide daily heat supply running regulation control parameter, are adjusted on demand for administrative staff in advance
Section, realizes the active heat supply at thermal source.
The premise that climate compensator carries out dynamic regulation is that the thermic load of next day is predicted, in order to according to load value
Heating parameter is adjusted the day part regularity of distribution.Dynamic Load Forecasting mainly includes two parts, is outdoor temperature first
Prediction, i.e., be predicted according to the weather forecast of local history meteorological data and meteorological department to the outdoor temperature of next day, and will
The value as heat load prediction master data；Next to that the prediction of thermic load, i.e., calculate the heat of next day according to outdoor temperature
Load curve.
Outdoor temperature is predicted：On the premise of temperature is certain indoors, Heating Load depends primarily on the big of outdoor temperature
It is small, and in fact, carry out load prediction when, the outdoor temperature of second day is difficult to directly obtain, to shift to an earlier date 24h prediction adopt
Warm load, first has to be predicted the outdoor temp angle value of second day.
The earth receives solar radiant heat and releases heat at night daytime, and outdoor temperature becomes in diel with Time Continuous
Change, show obvious 24h cyclic fluctuations.The minimum of outdoor temperature is generally present in before and after sunrise among one day, and
Peak is reached during afternoon 14-15.It therefore, it can carry out outdoor temperature 24h cyclic forecast.
Outdoor temperature Forecasting Methodology.The Forecasting Methodology of outdoor temperature mainly includes Shape Factor Method, ASHRAE Y-factor method Ys, letter
Single moving average method.
1. Shape Factor Method is the history form factor that is worth going out according to history outdoor temperature data and from local meteorological observatory
Highest, the minimum temperature of forecast are predicted to following outdoor temperature, and after a predetermined period terminates, it is real by outdoor temperature
Measured value carries out continuous renewal amendment to form factor.Shape Factor Method can be divided into one-stage process and MacArthur methods.
One-stage process outdoor temperature predictor formula is：
t′i=ai(t′h-t′l)+t′l(3-1)；
In formula, ai--- the predicting shape factor of i-th hour；
t′i--- the outdoor temperature predicted value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
t′l--- prediction outdoor temperature minimum (DEG C)；
t′h--- prediction outdoor temperature peak (DEG C)；
After one predetermined period terminates, compare the outdoor temperature measured value and predicted value on the same day, to predicting shape factor ai
It is modified, the outdoor temperature that the revised new shape factor is used for next day is predicted, to the temperature measured value t for knowing i-th houri
When, it is modified with reference to the form factor at actual measurement form factor moment to this；The actual measurement shape obtained by the measured data of i-th hour
The shape factor is：
In formula, ai1--- the actual measurement form factor of i-th hour；
ti--- the actual measurement outdoor temp angle value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
tl--- actual measurement outdoor temperature minimum (DEG C)；
th--- actual measurement outdoor temperature peak (DEG C)；
The revised new shape factor is：
a′i=ai(1-b)+ai1b (3-3)；
In formula, ai--- the revised new shape factor of i-th hour；
B --- forgetting factor.
24 hours one day as a predetermined period and are classified as declining and risen by its prediction algorithm such as MacArthur
Two stages, the amendment step of form factor is identical with one-stage process.
To the temperature minimum moment since the cycle, the form factor for defining i-th hour is：
In formula, ai--- the form factor of i-th hour；
t′i--- the temperature prediction value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
t0--- the measured temperature (DEG C) of forecast start time in cycle；
tl--- the minimum temperature (DEG C) of weather forecast；
From the temperature minimum moment to end cycle, the form factor for defining i-th hour is：
In formula, ai--- the form factor of i-th hour；
t′i--- the temperature prediction value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
tl--- the minimum temperature (DEG C) of weather forecast；
th--- the maximum temperature (DEG C) of weather forecast.
2. ASHRAE Y-factor method Ys[25]The next day highest and minimum outdoor temperature forecast according to meteorological department, use temperature prediction
Coefficient to by when outdoor temperature be predicted.By when outdoor temperature calculated by formula (3-6).
tτ=th-ατ(th-tl)；
In formula, tτ--- τ moment outdoor temperature predicted values (DEG C)；
ατ--- the temperature prediction coefficient at τ moment；
th--- the maximum temperature (DEG C) of weather forecast；
th--- the minimum temperature (DEG C) of weather forecast.
Table 3-2 ASHRAE method temperature prediction coefficients
| Moment | ατ | Moment | ατ | Moment | ατ | Moment | ατ |
| 0：00 | 0.82 | 6：00 | 0.98 | 12：00 | 0.23 | 18：00 | 0.21 |
| 1：00 | 0.87 | 7：00 | 0.93 | 13：00 | 0.11 | 19：00 | 0.34 |
| 2：00 | 0.92 | 8：00 | 0.84 | 14：00 | 0.03 | 20：00 | 0.47 |
| 3：00 | 0.96 | 9：00 | 0.71 | 15：00 | 0.00 | 21：00 | 0.58 |
| 4：00 | 0.99 | 10：00 | 0.56 | 16：00 | 0.03 | 22：00 | 0.68 |
| 5：00 | 1 | 11：00 | 0.39 | 17：00 | 0.10 | 23：00 | 0.76 |
It was found from the temperature prediction coefficient in table 3-2：It is daily by when outdoor temperature changing rule approximately meet sinusoidal point
Cloth.The ASHRAE Y-factor method Ys of outdoor temperature prediction, are generally to be applicable empirical value according to what the long-term observation of outdoor temperature was formed, its
Middle a is changeless, with the local actual conditions of prediction it is possible that situation about not being consistent.
3. simple moving average is to seek weighted average by the data to a certain period in past, and using average value as in the future
The predicted value in a certain period.Outdoor temperature is calculated as shown in formula using simple moving average method：
tτ+1=f0×tτ+f1×tτ-1+f2×tτ2+…+fn×tτ-n；
In formula, tτ+1--- the temperature prediction value (DEG C) at the moment of τ+1；
fi--- disturbance degree of the temperature value in preceding i sampling period to subsequent time temperature；
N --- the length of predicted time section, the size of its value reflects reaction speed of the predicted value to data variation.
Simple moving average method is predicted using the data of adjacent moment to the data of subsequent time, prediction data sampling
Interval is shorter, and prediction accuracy is higher, but due to needing the temperature measured data of current and preceding some moment, can only to it is adjacent when
Quarter is predicted, and has some limitations.If using simple moving average method in evening before that day to 24 hours next day
Outdoor instant time temperature is predicted, and can only be promoted layer by layer to predicting the outcome, prediction accuracy will be substantially reduced.
(2) various temperature predicting method comparative analyses.Choose the Shijiazhuang standard year outdoor temp in January of DeST Software Creates
The reference data as predicted temperature is spent, the analysis contrast of various Forecasting Methodologies is carried out.In comparing calculation, it is assumed that weather forecast
Highest, lowest temperature angle value and actual measured value zero deflection or deviation very little.From worst error, mean square deviation and error arithmetic mean
It is worth as the good and bad evaluation index of Forecasting Methodology, these three index expression predicted values deviate the degree of actual value.
Worst error
M=max (| t 'i-ti|) (3-8)
Mean square deviation
Error arithmetic average
Table 3-3 Forecasting Methodology error statistics tables
| Forecasting Methodology | Worst error | Mean square deviation | Error arithmetic average |
| One-stage process | 3.37 | 1.02 | 0.00 |
| MacArthur methods | 5.20 | 1.40 | 0.06 |
| ASHRAE Y-factor method Ys | 5.97 | 1.41 | -0.04 |
| 3 hours simple moving average methods | 4.45 | 1.45 | 0.00 |
As shown in Figure 2, various outdoor instant time temperature Forecasting Methodologies are analyzed and understood, in Short-range Temperature prediction
In, one-stage process degree of accuracy highest.The temperature of subsequent time is predicted in temperature rolling average using online temperature measuring data, and it is accurate
Exactness is higher.
As can be known from Fig. 2, among various Forecasting Methodologies, the outdoor temperature predicted using one-stage process is most connect with actual value
Closely, with respect to actual value there is delay hysteresis in simple moving average method predicted value.
Contrast above outdoor temperature Forecasting Methodology and understand that the predictive coefficient in ASHRAE Y-factor method Ys is entered to outdoor temperature
The empirical value formed after row long-term observation, its value is the constant of fixation, it is contemplated that the random variability of outdoor temperature, Ci Zhongfang
Method has some limitations.Shape Factor Method is updated daily using outdoor temperature measured value to predictive coefficient, can be more preferably
Reaction temperature changing rule, so as to be accurately predicted to outdoor temperature.
Simple moving average method carries out recursion prediction using the outdoor temperature of adjacent moment to subsequent time temperature value, fully
Consider the interdependence of outdoor temperature, the changing rule of outdoor temperature can be reacted well, but due to being to adjacent a few houres
Delay hysteresis occurs with respect to actual value in the weighted average of preceding temperature, predicted value.In summary, from Shape Factor Method
In one-stage process as outdoor temperature Forecasting Methodology.
As shown in Figure 3, the on-line amending of outdoor temperature predicted value.Shape Factor Method is it is determined that highest, minimum temperature
At the time of on be according to general daily temperature changing rule determine.Due to the randomness that outdoor temperature changes, for anomalous weather,
The situation that January 14, outdoor temperature was gradually reduced in such as figure, it may appear that certain deviation, will be improved using the on-line amending of temperature
The accuracy of prediction.On-line amending uses the simple method of moving average, uses the prediction data sampling interval for 1h, predicted time segment length
It is 2 to spend n, i.e., the temperature of this one hour after is predicted using current temperature value, the temperature value of previous hour, the temperature value of first two hours
Value.The weight coefficient of each phase temperature historical data is respectively：f0=1/2, f1=1/3, f2=f0×f1=1/6 ... ... fn=
fn-2×fn-1。
Outdoor temp angle value segment quantization.According to the regulation period of weather compensation, the outdoor temperature in the correspondence period is taken and added
Weight average value, as the outdoor temperature quantized value in the period, quantitative formula is：
In formula,--- the outdoor temperature quantized value (DEG C) of corresponding period；
twi--- the moment of day part i-th corresponding outdoor temp angle value (DEG C)；
N --- number at the time of being included in the corresponding period.
After buildings exterior-protected structure is determined, constructure heating thermic load be directly proportional to indoor/outdoor temperature-difference (ignore sunshine and
The influence of wind-force), when indoor temperature keeps setting value, thermic load depends on the size of outdoor temperature.In climate compensator
In each regulation period, the fluctuation of outdoor temperature is not impacted to the size of thermic load, now, according to day part outdoor temp measurement
Change value is calculated by steady state heat transfer thermic load, meets required precision, and carry calculation formula is
Q=Qs(tn-tw)/(tn-twj)；
Qs=qAA；
In formula, Q --- heating actual heating load (W)；
Qs--- design space-heating load (W)；
qA--- Heating Design heating index (W/m2)；
A --- construction area (m2)。
tn--- indoor design temperature (DEG C)；
tw, --- heating outdoor temperature (DEG C)；
twj--- outdoor design temperature for heating (DEG C).
By predicting the whole day outdoor temperature of 24 hours, dynamic regulation thermic load.Climate compensator is by supplying indirect type
The once regulation and control of net hot water network trackside and the heating parameter of secondary network heating user side, realize the benefit of system heating load in hot systems
Repay regulation.In thermal substation, once the heating load of net hot water network trackside is：
Q1=1.163G1(τg-τh)；
Secondary network heating user side heating load be：
Q2=1.163G2(tg-th)；
The heat exchange amount of heat exchanger is：
Q=KF Δs t：
In formula, τg、τh--- the confession once netted, return water temperature (DEG C)；
tg、th--- the confession of secondary network, return water temperature (DEG C)；
G1、G2--- the flow (m of first and second net3/h)；
The coefficient of heat transfer (the Wm of K --- heat exchanger-2·℃-1)；
F --- heat exchanger heat exchange area (m2)；
Δ t --- heat exchanger logarithmic mean temperature difference (LMTD) (DEG C).
On the premise of heat transmission equipment heat loss is ignored, once net hot water network trackside, the heat supply of secondary network heating user side
Amount is equal to the heat exchange amount of heat exchanger between first and second net, i.e. Q1、Q2, Q three's correspondent equal, set up climate compensator first and second
To the regulation model of heating parameter in net.
The regulation model of heating user (secondary network) side：The user side that heats heat supply regulation adjusts model using matter, to keep
The hydraulic regime of custom system is stable.In matter regulation, the supply water temperature regulating system heating load of user side is entered by changing,
Quantity of circulating water keeps constant.
Heat supply running adjusts fundamental formular[28]：
WillSupplementary condition substitute into hot-water heating system heat supply running regulation fundamental formular (3-16), matter can be exported
The confession of regulation, the calculation formula of return water temperature：
In formula,--- with respect to the ratio between space heating load；
tn--- temperature (DEG C) is calculated in user room；
tg、th--- a certain outdoor temperature twUnder, the confession for the user that heats, return water temperature (DEG C)；
t′g、t′h--- outdoor design temperature for heating t 'wUnder, heating user is designed for, return water temperature (DEG C)；
The heat transfer index of b --- radiator, generally for common heat sink b=0.14~0.37.
As shown in Figure 4, in the case where heat user sets a certain indoor temperature, the confession for the user side that heats, return water temperature
Depending on relative space heating load.Matter regulation is with the change value of thermic load caused by being changed as outdoor temperature to supply and return water temperature
It is adjusted, so as to ensure that user indoor temperature is stable, is not produced and significantly disturbed by outdoor temperature change.
To realize the dynamic regulation of climate compensator, rational prediction is carried out to outdoor temperature, this method is according to advanced
The heating medium parameter of the thermic load value of setting according to regulation model regulating system, thermal source is become by original wide in range passive heat supply based on
Dynamic heat supply, on the premise of ensureing that user indoor temperature is stable, provides the runing adjustment of heating system at the appointed time in advance
Index, on the premise of heating quality is ensured, improves heating efficiency, reduces heat supply energy consumption.
Embodiment described above is only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and the simultaneously exhaustion of the feasible implementation of non-invention.It is right
For persons skilled in the art, any aobvious to made by it on the premise of without departing substantially from the principle of the invention and spirit and
Within the change being clear to, the claims that should be all contemplated as falling with the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method, it is characterised in that：It is the prediction of outdoor temperature first, i.e., according to locality
The weather forecast of history meteorological data and meteorological department is predicted to the outdoor temperature of next day, and the value is pre- as thermic load
The master data of survey；Next to that the prediction of thermic load, i.e., calculate the thermic load curve of next day according to outdoor temperature.
2. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Temperature one indoors
On the premise of fixed, Heating Load depends primarily on the size of outdoor temperature, and in fact, when carrying out load prediction, second
It outdoor temperature is difficult to directly obtain, and to shift to an earlier date 24h prediction heating loads, first have to the outdoor temp angle value to second day
It is predicted；The earth receives solar radiant heat and releases heat at night daytime, and outdoor temperature is in diel with Time Continuous
Change, shows obvious 24h cyclic fluctuations；The minimum of outdoor temperature is generally present in before and after sunrise among one day, and
Peak is reached in afternoon 14-15, therefore, 24h cyclic forecast is carried out to outdoor temperature；Predicted using Shape Factor Method
Outdoor temperature, Shape Factor Method is the history form factor that is worth going out according to history outdoor temperature data and pre- from local meteorological observatory
Highest, the minimum temperature of report are predicted to following outdoor temperature, and after a predetermined period terminates, are surveyed by outdoor temperature
Value carries out continuous renewal amendment to form factor.
3. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that：The form factor
Method is one-stage process；One-stage process outdoor temperature predictor formula is：
t′i=ai(t′h-t′l)+t′l(3-1)；
In formula, ai--- the predicting shape factor of i-th hour；
t′i--- the outdoor temperature predicted value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
t′l--- prediction outdoor temperature minimum (DEG C)；
t′h--- prediction outdoor temperature peak (DEG C)；
After one predetermined period terminates, compare the outdoor temperature measured value and predicted value on the same day, to predicting shape factor aiRepaiied
Just, the revised new shape factor is used for the outdoor temperature prediction of next day, to the temperature measured value t for knowing i-th houriWhen, knot
The form factor for closing actual measurement form factor moment to this is modified；The actual measurement shape obtained by the measured data of i-th hour because
Son is：
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In formula, ai1--- the actual measurement form factor of i-th hour；
ti--- the actual measurement outdoor temp angle value (DEG C) of i-th hour；
tl--- actual measurement outdoor temperature minimum (DEG C)；
th--- actual measurement outdoor temperature peak (DEG C)；
The revised new shape factor is：
a′i=ai(1-b)+ai1b (3-3)；
In formula, a 'i--- the revised new shape factor of i-th hour；
B --- forgetting factor.
4. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that：Shape Factor Method exists
Determine highest, minimum temperature at the time of on be to be determined according to daily temperature changing rule；Due to outdoor temperature change it is random
Property, for anomalous weather, the situation that outdoor temperature is gradually reduced, it may appear that certain deviation is carried out to outdoor temperature predicted value
On-line amending, improves the accuracy of prediction, and on-line amending uses simple moving average method.
5. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 4, it is characterised in that：The simple slip
The method of average is to seek weighted average by the data to a certain period in past, and using average value as a certain period in the future prediction
Value；Outdoor temperature is calculated using simple moving average method as follows：
tτ+1=f0×tτ+f1×tτ-1+f2×tτ-2+…+fn×tτ-n(3-7)；
In formula, tτ+1--- the temperature prediction value (DEG C) at the moment of τ+1；
fi--- disturbance degree of the temperature value in preceding i sampling period to subsequent time temperature；
N --- the length of predicted time section, the size of its value reflects reaction speed of the predicted value to data variation；
Simple moving average method is predicted using the data of adjacent moment to the data of subsequent time, the prediction data sampling interval
Shorter, prediction accuracy is higher, uses the prediction data sampling interval for 1h, and predicted time segment length n is 2, that is, utilizes current temperature
Angle value, the temperature value of previous hour, the temperature value of first two hours predict the temperature value of this one hour after；Each phase temperature history number
According to weight coefficient be respectively：f0=1/2, f1=1/3, f2=f0×f1=1/6 ... ... fn=fn-2×fn-1。
6. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 5, it is characterised in that：According to weather compensation
The regulation period, by correspondence the period in outdoor temperature take weighted average, be used as the outdoor temperature quantized value in the period, amount
Changing formula is：
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In formula,--- the outdoor temperature quantized value (DEG C) of corresponding period；
twi--- the moment of day part i-th corresponding outdoor temp angle value (DEG C)；
N --- number at the time of being included in the corresponding period.
7. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：The thermic load is pre-
The computational methods of measured value are：After buildings exterior-protected structure is determined, constructure heating thermic load is directly proportional to indoor/outdoor temperature-difference, when
When indoor temperature keeps setting value, thermic load depends on the size of outdoor temperature；Within each regulation period of climate compensator, room
The fluctuation of outer temperature is impacted less to the size of thermic load, now, according to day part outdoor temperature quantized value to thermic load
Calculated by steady state heat transfer, meet required precision, carry calculation formula is
Q=Qs(tn-tw)/(tn-twj) (3-12a)；
Qs=qAA (3-12b)；
In formula, Q --- heating actual heating load (W)；
Qs--- design space-heating load (W)；
qA--- Heating Design heating index (W/m2)；
A --- construction area (m2)；
tn--- indoor design temperature (DEG C)；
tw--- heating outdoor temperature (DEG C)；
twj--- outdoor design temperature for heating (DEG C).
8. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 7, it is characterised in that：Set up weather compensation
Dynamic regulation model：By predicting the whole day outdoor temperature of 24 hours, dynamic regulation thermic load；Climate compensator passes through to indirect
The once regulation and control of net hot water network trackside and the heating parameter of secondary network heating user side, realize system heating load in formula heating system
Compensation adjustment；In thermal substation, once the heating load of net hot water network trackside is：
Q1=1.163G1(τg-τh) (3-13)；
Secondary network heating user side heating load be：
Q2=1.163G2(tg-th) (3-14)；
The heat exchange amount of heat exchanger is：
Q '=KF Δs t (3-15)；
In formula, τg、τh--- the confession once netted, return water temperature (DEG C)；
tg、th--- the confession of secondary network, return water temperature (DEG C)；
G1、G2--- the flow (m of first and second net3/h)；
The coefficient of heat transfer (the Wm of K --- heat exchanger-2·℃-1)；
F --- heat exchanger heat exchange area (m2)；
Δ t --- heat exchanger logarithmic mean temperature difference (LMTD) (DEG C)；
On the premise of heat transmission equipment heat loss is ignored, once net hot water network trackside, heating load etc. of secondary network heating user side
The heat exchange amount of heat exchanger, i.e. Q between being netted in first and second1、Q2, Q ' three's correspondent equals, set up climate compensator first and second net in
To the regulation model of heating parameter.
9. a kind of central heating dynamic gas candidate compensation method according to claim 8, it is characterised in that：Set up secondary network confession
The regulation model of warm user side：The user side that heats heat supply regulation adjusts model using matter, to keep the hydraulic regime of custom system
It is stable；In matter regulation, the supply water temperature regulating system heating load of user side is entered by changing, quantity of circulating water keeps constant；
Heat supply running adjusts fundamental formular：
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WillSupplementary condition substitute into hot-water heating system heat supply running regulation fundamental formular (3-16), export matter regulation
For the calculation formula of, return water temperature：
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In formula,--- with respect to the ratio between space heating load；
tn--- temperature (DEG C) is calculated in user room；
tg、th--- a certain outdoor temperature twUnder, the confession for the user that heats, return water temperature (DEG C)；
t′g、t′h--- outdoor design temperature for heating t 'wUnder, heating user is designed for, return water temperature (DEG C)；
The heat transfer index of b --- radiator, generally for common heat sink b=0.14~0.37；
In the case where heat user sets a certain indoor temperature, the confession for the user side that heats, return water temperature depend on relative heating heat
Load；Matter regulation carries out the advanced tune of appropriateness with the change value of thermic load caused by being changed as outdoor temperature to supply and return water temperature
Section, so that the matter carried out according to the change of outdoor temperature is adjusted closer to actual and undistorted, so as to ensure user's Indoor Temperature
The stabilization of degree.
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