CN107045664B - Extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power association analysis method based on gray theory - Google Patents
Extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power association analysis method based on gray theory Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call that the present invention relates to a kind of based on gray theory and province's interior power association analysis method, this method is based on Grey Correlation Analysis Theory, the external electricity operation data in extra-high voltage direct-current area and the inside the province associate feature between power construction index are sufficiently excavated, establish reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system and power construction reliability evaluation index system respectively；Using the statistical data that each index is over the years, power construction system database and extra-high voltage DC transmission system database are established；It constructs extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and saves interior power grey relation model；It calculates and discloses extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and save the interior power degree of association and associate feature.The present invention can disclose outside area extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and inside the province factor, associate feature and timing development law over the years in close relations between power construction, show that extra-high voltage DC transmission system influences the leading factor of power construction reliability inside the province, to make correct decision with planning to the power construction under extensive extra-high voltage direct-current transmission development environment.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of power systems, and in particular to extra-high voltage direct-current based on gray theory incoming call with inside the province
Power supply association analysis method.
Background technique
The energy resources center of China and the location distribution of load center are extremely uneven, and the abundant area of energy resources is remote
From economically developed load center area, the characteristics of both this contrary distribution so that China need to build meet it is remote, it is big to advise
The extra-high voltage sturdy power grid that mould transmits electric power is to realize distributing rationally for energy resources.Extra-high voltage direct-current transmission (UHVDC) refers to
The direct current transportation of ± 800kV and above, transmission distance big in view of extra-high voltage direct-current transmission transmission capacity are remote etc. excellent
Point, extra-high voltage direct-current transmission are developed rapidly, and are made that tremendous contribution for the development of national economy.
The multiple provinces in China or will become extra-high pressure area dispatch from foreign news agency power by end regions, have Henan, wide than more typical
The provinces such as east and Shandong.While extra high voltage direct current transmission line provides at high proportion electric power outside the province for each province, also inside the province to each province
Power construction more stringent requirements are proposed.Present power construction inside the province is balanced generally by peak modulation capacity and each department electricity
Dynamic balance situation acquires this province peak regulation demand, and then long-term power supply architecture and programming and distribution in determination.This method has ignored greatly
Extra-high voltage direct-current transmission participates in transregional peak regulation in contribution that the scale intermittent renewable energy builds power source planning, wide scope
Ability and extra-high voltage direct-current area outside cooperateing with for incoming call and province interior power dissolve etc., by data mining technology to extra-high voltage
It is power construction and planning under the new situation that the coupling associate feature of direct current incoming call and each index of power construction inside the province, which carries out analysis,
Key points and difficulties.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to make up the weak link in existing power supply construction plan method, provide based on gray theory
Extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call with save interior power association analysis method, this method can calculate extra-high voltage direct-current transmission with it is electric inside the province
The correlation degree of each reliability factor in two system of source and two systems, qualitative and quantitative, which discloses extra-high voltage DC transmission system, to be influenced
The principal element of power construction reliability inside the province, while showing timing development law according to the time, so as to power construction and
Correct decision is made in planning.
To achieve the above object, the invention adopts the following technical scheme: the extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call based on gray theory
With save interior power association analysis method, method includes the following steps:
(1) reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system is established.
(2) power construction reliability evaluation index system is established.
(3) achievement data over the years is collected, extra-high voltage DC transmission system database is established.
(4) achievement data over the years is collected, power construction system database is established.
(5) building extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power grey relation model.
(6) it calculates and discloses extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and save the interior power degree of association and associate feature.
Further, the tool for " establishing reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system " described in step (1)
Hold in vivo are as follows:
A. using assessment indicator system establish five principles as foundation, i.e., the comprehensive principle of system, principle of giving prominence to the key points, conscientiously
Feasible principle, quantifies than principle relatively independent principle.
B. it chooses reliability of UHVDC transmission system index, including energy availability, forces energy degree of unavailability, is strong
Compel stoppage in transit number, utilize hourage.
Further, the particular content for " establishing power construction reliability evaluation index system " described in step (2) are as follows:
A. using assessment indicator system establish five principles as foundation, i.e., the comprehensive principle of system, principle of giving prominence to the key points, conscientiously
Feasible principle, quantifies than principle relatively independent principle.
B. power construction reliability evaluation index, including abundance index and safety indexes are chosen.Wherein abundance finger
Indicate installed capacity, power supply architecture, peak load, inside the province by electric ratio, peak capacity and spare capacity, safety indexes have N-
1 percent of pass, N-2 percent of pass, short circuit current and reactive compensation.
Further, " building extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power grey relation model " described in step (5)
Detailed process are as follows:
A. analytical sequence is determined；
Totally two group analysis sequence, first group is 4 extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call analysis sequences in step (3), it is compiled respectively
Number be Xi(i=1,2 ..., 4)；Second group is 10 power data analytical sequences inside the province in step (4), it is numbered respectively is
Yj(j=1,2 ..., 10).
B. sequence data dimension is eliminated；
It sends a telegram here to extra-high voltage direct-current and carries out the elimination of dimension with power data analytical sequence Xi and Yj inside the province, respectively with two groups
The data X of analytical sequence First Yeari(1) and Yj(1) divided by index value annual below, obtain new index series Xi ' and
Yj’。
C. it calculates very poor；
According to formula △i(k)=| Xi′(k)-Yj' (k) |, two groups of index series corresponding elements for going dimension are calculated one by one
Xi' and Yj' absolute difference.
And according to formulaDetermine two-stage lowest difference MN.
And according to formulaDetermine two-stage maximum difference MX.
D. calculate correlation coefficient
According to formulaIt calculates extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and saves two group analysis sequence of interior power
The incidence coefficient Rij of corresponding element, in which: ξ is resolution ratio, and in (0,1) interior value, ξ is smaller, and the difference between incidence coefficient is got over
Greatly, resolution ratio is higher；Preferably 0.5 is taken using ξ.
The working principle of the invention:
In order to which solve to encounter in power construction inside the province and planning process cooperates with consumption with extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call outside area
Problem, the invention proposes extra-high voltage direct-current incoming calls and province's interior power association analysis method based on gray theory.This method will
Grey correlation theory applied to extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call with save two system of interior power in, initially set up extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call with
Power supply reliability assessment indicator system inside the province；Then extra-high voltage direct-current is established respectively by collecting actual operating data over the years again
Incoming call and province's two system database of interior power；Grey correlation theory is further used, extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province outside area are established
The related degree model of interior power construction reliability.The internal association degree of two system reliabilities can be obtained by Program.
From the above technical scheme, the present invention by data mining and uses gray theory, discloses extra-high voltage outside area
Direct current incoming call and inside the province associate feature, leading factor and timing development law over the years between power construction, show that extra-high voltage direct-current is defeated
Electric system influences the principal element of power construction reliability inside the province, is the optimization under extensive extra-high voltage direct-current transmission development environment
Power construction and planning provide foundation.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is work flow diagram of the invention.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawing:
Embodiment 1: as shown in Figure 1, extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power association analysis method based on gray theory,
Method includes the following steps:
(1) reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system is established.
(2) power construction reliability evaluation index system is established.
(3) achievement data over the years is collected, extra-high voltage DC transmission system database is established.
(4) achievement data over the years is collected, power construction system database is established.
(5) building extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power grey relation model.
(6) it calculates and discloses extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and save the interior power degree of association and associate feature.
Concrete example explanation, this method include the steps that following sequence:
(1) according to assessment indicator system establishment principle: the comprehensive principle of system, principle of giving prominence to the key points, practical principle, phase
To independent principle, quantify to choose energy availability than principle, force energy degree of unavailability, forced outage number, utilize hour
4 reliability indexs of number establish reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system.
(2) according to assessment indicator system establishment principle: the comprehensive principle of system, principle of giving prominence to the key points, practical principle, phase
To independent principle, quantify than principle, choose installed capacity, power supply architecture, peak load, inside the province by electric ratio, peak capacity,
Spare capacity, N-1 percent of pass, N-2 percent of pass, short circuit current and 10 reliability indexs foundation province interior powers of reactive compensation are reliable
Property assessment indicator system.
(3) Hami-Zhengzhou extra-high voltage direct-current 2014 and achievement data in 2015 are collected, extra-high voltage direct-current transmission is established
System database.
(4) -2015 years 2010 power construction achievement datas in Henan Province are collected, power construction system data inside the province is established
Library.
(5) according to database, two groups of data sequences of reflection system action feature are formed.
First group of sequence is energy availability, forces energy degree of unavailability, forced outage number, utilizes 4 spies of hourage
High voltage direct current incoming call analysis sequence numbers it respectively as Xi(i=1,2 ..., 4)；Second group of sequence is installed capacity, power supply
Structure, peak load, inside the province by electric ratio, peak capacity, spare capacity, N-1 percent of pass, N-2 percent of pass, short circuit current and nothing
Function compensates 10 power data analytical sequences inside the province, it is numbered respectively as Yj(j=1,2 ..., 10).
(6) it sends a telegram here and power data analytical sequence X inside the province to extra-high voltage direct-currentiAnd YjImmeasurable tempering processing is carried out, is used respectively
The data Xi (1) and Yj (1) of two group analysis sequence First Years obtain dimensionless index sequence divided by index value annual below
Xi ' and Yj '.
(7) calculating is very poor, according to formula △i(k)=| Xi′(k)-Yj' (k) |, two groups of analyses for going dimension are calculated one by one
The absolute difference of sequence corresponding element Xi ' and Yj '.
According to formulaDetermine two-stage lowest difference MN.
According to formulaDetermine two-stage maximum difference MX.
(8) calculate correlation coefficient.According to formulaCalculate extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call with inside the province
The incidence coefficient Rij of two group analysis sequence corresponding element of power supply.ξ is resolution ratio, and in (0,1) interior value, ξ is smaller, association system
Several difference is bigger, and resolution ratio is higher.General ξ takes 0.5.
(9) sequence is compared to grey relational grade, obtains the grey correlation degree of each reference sequences sequence compared with, it is fixed
It measures and intuitively finds out that each factor is strong and weak to the influence of principal element again.
If incidence coefficient Rij=1, illustrate to send a telegram here outside area a certain index and the relationship of power construction inside the province it is the closest, and two
The changing rule of person is identical；If incidence coefficient RijIn (0,1) range, then incidence coefficient RijValue it is bigger, the association between system
Property is stronger, and incidence coefficient Rij value is smaller, and the relevance between system is weaker.It can determine whether the pass between two systems according to association angle value
Connection degree is weak related, moderate correlation, compared with strong correlation or extremely strong correlation.
Embodiment 2: as shown in Figure 1, extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power association analysis method based on gray theory,
Method includes the following steps:
(1) reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system is established.
(2) power construction reliability evaluation index system is established.
(3) achievement data over the years is collected, extra-high voltage DC transmission system database is established.
(4) achievement data over the years is collected, power construction system database is established.
(5) building extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power grey relation model.
(6) it calculates and discloses extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and save the interior power degree of association and associate feature.
Concrete example explanation, this method include the steps that following sequence:
(1) energy availability is chosen, energy degree of unavailability, forced outage number is forced, is referred to using 4 reliabilities of hourage
Mark establishes reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system.
(2) according to assessment indicator system establishment principle: choose installed capacity, power supply architecture, peak load, inside the province by electric ratio
10 example, peak capacity, spare capacity, N-1 percent of pass, N-2 percent of pass, short circuit current and reactive compensation reliability indexs are established
Power supply reliability assessment indicator system inside the province.
(3) Hami-Zhengzhou extra-high voltage direct-current 2014 and achievement data in 2015 are collected, extra-high voltage direct-current transmission is established
System database.
(4) -2015 years 2010 power construction achievement datas in Henan Province are collected, power construction system data inside the province is established
Library.
(5) according to database, two groups of data sequences of reflection system action feature are formed.
First group of sequence is energy availability, forces energy degree of unavailability, forced outage number, utilizes 4 spies of hourage
High voltage direct current incoming call analysis sequence numbers it respectively as Xi(i=1,2 ..., 4)；Second group of sequence is installed capacity, power supply
Structure, peak load, inside the province by electric ratio, peak capacity, spare capacity, N-1 percent of pass, N-2 percent of pass, short circuit current and nothing
Function compensates 10 power data analytical sequences inside the province, it is numbered respectively as Yj(j=1,2 ..., 10).
(6) it sends a telegram here and power data analytical sequence X inside the province to extra-high voltage direct-currentiAnd YjImmeasurable tempering processing is carried out, is used respectively
The data X of two group analysis sequence First Yearsi(1) and Yj(1) divided by index value annual below, dimensionless index sequence is obtained
Xi ' and Yj '.
(7) calculating is very poor, according to formula △i(k)=| Xi′(k)-Yj' (k) |, two groups of analyses for going dimension are calculated one by one
The absolute difference of sequence corresponding element Xi ' and Yj '.
According to formulaDetermine two-stage lowest difference MN.
According to formulaDetermine two-stage maximum difference MX.
(8) calculate correlation coefficient.According to formulaCalculate extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call with inside the province
The incidence coefficient Rij of two group analysis sequence corresponding element of power supply.ξ is resolution ratio, and in (0,1) interior value, ξ is smaller, association system
Several difference is bigger, and resolution ratio is higher.General ξ takes 0.5.
(9) sequence is compared to grey relational grade, obtains the grey correlation degree of each reference sequences sequence compared with, it is fixed
It measures and intuitively finds out that each factor is strong and weak to the influence of principal element again.
If incidence coefficient Rij=1, illustrate to send a telegram here outside area a certain index and the relationship of power construction inside the province it is the closest, and two
The changing rule of person is identical；If incidence coefficient RijIn (0,1) range, then incidence coefficient RijValue it is bigger, the association between system
Stronger, the incidence coefficient R of propertyijIt is worth smaller, the relevance between system is weaker.It can determine whether the association between two systems according to association angle value
Degree is weak related, moderate correlation, compared with strong correlation or extremely strong correlation.
Embodiment described above only describe the preferred embodiments of the invention, not to model of the invention
It encloses and is defined, without departing from the spirit of the design of the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are to technical side of the invention
The various changes and improvements that case is made should all be fallen into the protection scope that claims of the present invention determines.
Claims (3)
1. extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power association analysis method based on gray theory, it is characterised in that: including following
Step:
(1) reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system is established；
(2) power construction reliability evaluation index system is established；
(3) achievement data over the years is collected, extra-high voltage DC transmission system database is established；
(4) achievement data over the years is collected, power construction system database is established；
(5) building extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power grey relation model；
(6) it calculates and discloses extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and save the interior power degree of association and associate feature；
The detailed process of " building extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call and province's interior power grey relation model " described in step (5) are as follows:
A. analytical sequence is determined；
Totally two group analysis sequence, first group of sequence are energy availabilitys, force energy degree of unavailability, forced outage number, utilize
4 extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call analysis sequences of hourage, it is numbered respectively as Xi, i=1,2 ..., 4；Second group of sequence is dress
Machine capacity, power supply architecture, peak load, inside the province by electric ratio, peak capacity, spare capacity, N-1 percent of pass, N-2 percent of pass,
Short circuit current and reactive compensation 10 power data analytical sequence inside the province, it is numbered respectively as Yj, j=1,2 ..., 10；
B. sequence data dimension is eliminated；
It sends a telegram here and power data analytical sequence X inside the province to extra-high voltage direct-currentiAnd YjThe elimination for carrying out dimension, respectively with two group analysis
The data X of sequence First Yeari(1) and Yj(1) divided by index value annual below, new analytical sequence X is obtainedi' and Yj′；
C. it calculates very poor；
According to formula Δi(k)=| Xi′(k)-Yj' (k) |, two groups of analytical sequence corresponding element X for going dimension are calculated one by onei' and
Yj' absolute difference；
According to formulaDetermine two-stage lowest difference MN；
According to formulaDetermine two-stage maximum difference MX；
D. calculate correlation coefficient；
According to formulaIt is corresponding with two group analysis sequence of interior power is saved to calculate extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call
The incidence coefficient R of elementij, in which: ξ is resolution ratio, and in (0,1) interior value, ξ is smaller, and the difference between incidence coefficient is bigger, point
Resolution is higher, takes 0.5 using ξ.
2. the extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call according to claim 1 based on gray theory and province's interior power association analysis method,
It is characterized by: establishing the particular content of reliability of UHVDC transmission system assessment indicator system described in step (1) are as follows:
Choose reliability of UHVDC transmission system index, including energy availability, forced energy degree of unavailability, forced outage
Number utilizes hourage.
3. the extra-high voltage direct-current incoming call according to claim 2 based on gray theory and province's interior power association analysis method,
It is characterized by: establishing the particular content of power construction reliability evaluation index system described in step (2) are as follows:
Choose power construction reliability evaluation index, including abundance index and safety indexes；
Wherein abundance index have installed capacity, power supply architecture, peak load, inside the province by electric ratio, peak capacity and spare appearance
Amount, safety indexes have N-1 percent of pass, N-2 percent of pass, short circuit current and reactive compensation.
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| Title |
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| 特高压落点规划的评价指标体系和方法;沈阳武 等;《电网技术》;20121205;第36卷(第12期);第44-53页 |
| 直流通道检修的安全风险量化评价指标与算法研究;赖昱光;《中国优秀硕士学位论文全文数据库 工程科技Ⅱ辑》;20150115(第01期);第1-59页 |
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