CN106972517B - Reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculation method based on bipolar symmetrical feature - Google Patents
Reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculation method based on bipolar symmetrical feature Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/36—Arrangements for transfer of electric power between ac networks via a high-tension dc link
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculation methods based on bipolar symmetrical feature.According to the topological structure of extra-high voltage DC transmission system and its component reliability parameter, carry out the monopole equivalent model and each component dependability parameter for simplifying and obtaining extra-high voltage DC transmission system of connecting, according to the transformational relation between all possible malfunction and its each malfunction, establish monopolar regime spatial model, building includes the differential equation of capacity status transfer matrix X, it calculates again and acquires the corresponding probability of stability of malfunction, identical capacity status is merged to obtain and operates normally the corresponding accumulated probability of converter bridge number NT in monopole, the corresponding probability of stability of bipolar middle normal operation converter bridge number is obtained further according to accumulated probability.This invention simplifies extra-high voltage DC transmission system state space complexity and step is calculated, convenient for rapid evaluation reliability of UHVDC transmission system and the expansion of the Operation of Electric Systems planning based on this.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of electric system transmission of electricity part reliability calculation methods, more particularly to a kind of based on bipolar
The reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculation method of symmetrical feature.
Background technique
China is faced with load center and Energy Base is unevenly distributed the contradiction of weighing apparatus, and with TV university, province focuses mostly in southeastern coast
One band, such as Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta Area, and Energy Base focuses mostly in central and west regions, as the Changjiang river Jinsha jiang River upstream water energy provides
The three northern areas of China of source southwest abundant and rich coal resources.Load center " severe power shortage " and power center's " nest electricity " simultaneously deposit,
Solving this contradictory key is the power transfer corridors built based on extra-high voltage, and extra-high voltage direct-current is clever with its control mode
It is living, quick, can be point-to-point, high-power, remote directly by power Transmission to load center, it is external to become load center supporting region
The preferred option of electricity.The access of extra-high voltage is a double-edged sword to receiving end power grid, if bipolar locking failure occurs for direct current, be will cause
Power flow transfer and power shortage generate biggish system shock to receiving end power grid, seriously affect the safe and stable operation of power grid.Cause
This, the reliability for studying extra-high voltage DC transmission system has important practical significance.
The analysis method for reliability of extra-high voltage DC transmission system mainly has analytic method and simulation two major classes at present, simulation
Method is mainly Monte Carlo simulation, and parsing rule includes frequency and duration method, Fault Tree Analysis, series-parallel analytic approach
Deng.But Monte Carlo method increases with systematic sampling system scale, and the status assessment time obviously increases；But fault tree point
Analysis method cannot handle multimode element, can not also calculate failure-frequency and duration；Series-parallel analysis method can not consider spy
HVDC transmission system element is forced to stoppage in transit effect and recovery Effects.Therefore based on state space transfer frequency and it is lasting when
Between method be known as reliability of UHVDC transmission system analysis mainstream, existing calculation method is to extra-high voltage direct-current transmission system
System carries out system subdivision, has fully considered extra-high voltage DC transmission system design feature and a variety of methods of operation, has been become by the change of current
Depressor group, converter station, bipolar DC system are progressive, have fully considered extra-high voltage DC transmission system topological structure, more accurately
Ground reflects the actual conditions of extra-high voltage DC transmission system.But above-mentioned model state space structure is complicated, and state is enumerated and turned
Omission and carelessness are easy to appear when shifting, and calculating is many and diverse, therefore the method for rapid evaluation reliability of UHVDC transmission system
Needs as Operation of Electric Systems planning.
Summary of the invention
For the problems in above-mentioned background technology, the present invention provides a kind of extra-high voltage direct-currents based on bipolar symmetrical feature
Reliability of transmission system calculation method, can rapid evaluation reliability of UHVDC transmission system, convenient for instructing electric system tune
Control operation.
Reliability of UHVDC transmission system system is numerous, and technical solution of the present invention is general mainly for each capacity status
Rate is calculated, and calculate using following steps the reliability result of extra-high voltage DC transmission system:
1) according to extra-high voltage DC transmission system topological structure and component reliability parameter, series connection simplification obtains unipolar model
And each component dependability parameter of unipolar model.
2) according to extra-high voltage DC transmission system monopole equivalent model, its state-space model is determined
3) according to extra-high voltage DC transmission system monopolar regime spatial model, each capacity status transfer can be further derived
Matrix calculates each capacity status equilibrium probability and carries out status merging.
4) general generating function method is used, the spare effect of alternating current filter and standby recovery effect are comprehensively considered, is calculated
Bipolar DC system capacity status and equilibrium probability.
Therefore the present invention is adoption status space and general generating function combination method, makes full use of extra-high voltage direct-current transmission
The bipolar symmetrical feature of system, calculate obtain the probability of stability, as each capacity status reliability as a result, specifically using following steps into
Row calculates:
1) according to the topological structure of extra-high voltage DC transmission system and its component reliability parameter, connect simplifying is obtained
Each component dependability parameter in the monopole equivalent model and monopole equivalent model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system；
Original extra-high voltage DC transmission system topological structure is as shown in Figure 1.In figure, CT is converter power transformer, CV is the change of current
Valve, CC are valve control and protective device, and ACF is alternating current filter AC filter, and DCF is that DC filter DC filter, DCL are
DC line DC line.
2) it is closed according to the conversion between all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage DC transmission system and its each malfunction
System, establishes the monopolar regime spatial model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system；
3) according to the monopolar regime spatial model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system, building includes capacity status transfer matrix
The differential equation of X, then calculate and acquire the corresponding probability of stability of all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage DC transmission system；
4) identical capacity status is merged to obtain and operates normally the corresponding accumulated probability of converter bridge number NT, then root in monopole
The corresponding probability of stability of bipolar middle normal operation converter bridge number NT ' is obtained according to accumulated probability, as extra-high voltage direct-current transmission system
The reliability result of system.
The step 1) is specifically:
The topological structure of extra-high voltage DC transmission system is simplified, by converter power transformer CT, converter valve CV and valve control
CC combination constitutes convertor unit TVC, and DC filter DCF and DC line DCL combination is constituted direct current component FLF；And simultaneously
Acquisition monopole is calculated using the following equation according to the dependability parameter of element each in extra-high voltage DC transmission system topological structure
The dependability parameter of each component in equivalent model:
λ1=λCT+λCV+λCC
λ2=λACF
μ2=μACF
λ3=λDCF+λDCL+λDCF
Wherein, λCTAnd μCTRespectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of converter power transformer, λCVAnd μCCRespectively indicate converter valve
Failure rate and repair rate, λCCAnd μCCRespectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of valve control and protective device, λACFAnd μACFIt respectively indicates
The failure rate and repair rate of alternating current filter, λDCFAnd μDCFRespectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of DC filter, λDCLWith
μDCLRespectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of converter power transformer；λ1And μ1Respectively indicate the failure rate and reparation of convertor unit TVC
Rate, λ2And μ2Respectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of alternating current unit ACF, λ3And μ3It indicates the failure rate of direct current component FLF and repairs
Multiple rate.
The step 2) is specifically:
2.1) all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage direct-current transmission monopolar DC system is divided into following 11 kinds of states:
State 1 is the state that various components do not break down in monopole equivalent model；
State 2 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that a convertor unit TVC of side breaks down；
State 3 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that the alternating current filter ACF of side breaks down；
State 4 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that direct current component FLF breaks down；
State 5 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that a respective convertor unit TVC for two sides breaks down；
State 6 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that two convertor unit TVC of side break down；
State 7 is that monopole equivalent model only has a convertor unit TVC of side and the alternating current filter ACF of side occurs
The state of failure；
State 8 is the shape that monopole equivalent model only has that a convertor unit TVC of direct current component FLF and side breaks down
State；
State 9 is that monopole equivalent model only has two convertor unit TVC of side and a convertor unit TVC of the other side
The state to break down；
State 10 is that monopole equivalent model only has a respective convertor unit TVC for two sides and a convertor unit of side
The state that TVC breaks down；
State 11 is that monopole equivalent model only has direct current component FLF and event occurs for a respective convertor unit TVC for two sides
The state of barrier；
2.2) following transformational relation is then formed between 1~state of state 11:
State 1 is mutually converted between 2~state of state 4 respectively: state 1 is with four times of convertor unit TVC failure rate λ1
It is transformed into state 2, state 2 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 1；State 1 is with twice of alternating current unit
ACF failure rate λ2It is transformed into state 3, state 3 is with one times of alternating current unit ACF repair rate μ2It is transformed into state 1；State 1 is with one times
Direct current component FLF failure rate λ3It is transformed into state 4, state 4 is with one times of direct current component FLF repair rate μ3It is transformed into state 1；
State 2 is mutually converted between 5~state of state 8 respectively: state 2 is with twice of convertor unit TVC failure rate λ1
It is transformed into state 5, state 5 is with twice of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 2；State 2 is with one times of convertor unit
TVC failure rate λ1It is transformed into state 6, state 6 is with twice of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 2；State 2 is with twice
Alternating current unit ACF failure rate λ2It is transformed into state 7, state 7 is with one times of alternating current unit ACF repair rate μ2It is transformed into state 2；
State 2 is with one times of direct current component FLF failure rate λ3It is transformed into state 8, state 8 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1Turn
Change to state 2；
State 5 can be converted mutually between 9~state of state 11 respectively: state 5 is with twice of convertor unit TVC failure rate
λ1It is transformed into state 9, state 9 is with twice of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 5；State 5 is with twice of exchange list
First ACF failure rate λ2It is transformed into state 10, state 10 is with one times of alternating current unit ACF repair rate μ2It is transformed into state 5；State 5 with
One times of direct current component FLF failure rate λ3It is transformed into state 11, state 11 is with one times of direct current component FLF repair rate μ3It is transformed into
State 5；
State 9 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 6, state 11 is with twice of convertor unit TVC
Repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 8, state 8 is with one times of direct current component FLF repair rate μ3It is transformed into state 4, state 10 can be with twice
Convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 7, state 7 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 3.
The monopolar regime spatial model of the extra-high voltage DC transmission system of acquisition is as shown in figure 3, λ in figure1Indicate change of current list
First TVC failure rate, μ1Indicate convertor unit TVC repair rate；λ2Indicate alternating current filter ACF failure rate, μ2Indicate alternating current filter
ACF repair rate；λ3Indicate direct current component FLF failure rate, μ3Indicate direct current component FLF repair rate, NT indicates that state is corresponding in monopole
Normal operation converter bridge number.
The step 3) specifically:
3.1) what building following formula indicated includes the differential equation of capacity status transfer matrix X:
Wherein, t indicates time, λ1Indicate convertor unit TVC failure rate, μ1Indicate convertor unit TVC repair rate, λ2It indicates
Alternating current filter ACF failure rate, μ2Indicate alternating current filter ACF repair rate, λ3Indicate direct current component FLF failure rate, μ3Indicate straight
Flow unit F LF repair rate；p1~p11Respectively indicate the probability that monopole equivalent model is 1~state of state 11, k1~k11Table respectively
Show cornerwise 1st~the 11st element of capacity status transfer matrix X, be specifically calculated using the following equation:
Wherein, XijIndicate that the element of the i-th row jth column in capacity status transfer matrix X, i indicate row serial number, j indicates column sequence
Number；
3.2) by differential equation Markov approximation theory, the stationary value for acquiring the Probability p of each state is calculated, as spy
The corresponding stable state of all possible 11 kinds of malfunctions (1~state of state 11) of HVDC transmission system monopole equivalent model is general
Rate ps1~ps11。
The step 4) specifically:
4.1) the identical state of the corresponding normal operation converter bridge number NT of state is merged, calculates and obtains same change
It flows and operates normally the corresponding accumulated probability of converter bridge number NT in the monopole at station, specific as follows:
The corresponding normal operation converter bridge number NT=2 of state 1, thus operate normally converter bridge number NT be 2 it is accumulative
Probability PNT2It is calculated as PNT2=ps1；
The corresponding normal operation converter bridge number NT=1 of state 2,5, thus operate normally converter bridge number NT be 1 it is tired
Count probability PNT1It is calculated as PNT1=ps2+ps5；
The corresponding normal operation converter bridge number NT=0 of state 3,4,6~11, therefore operate normally converter bridge number NT and be
0 accumulated probability PNT0It is calculated as PNT0=ps3+ps4+ps6+ps7+ps8+ps9+ps10+ps11；
The accumulated probability P for being 0 for operating normally converter bridge number NTNT0Situation indicates bi-pole protection block, considers same change
The alternating current filter group at the two poles of the earth can be replaced mutually in stream station, be further divided into accumulated probability PNT0-1With accumulated probability PNT0-2, PNT0=
PNT0-1+PNT0-2, for respectively indicating the stoppage in transit of the doube bridge as caused by 3,7,10 corresponding A CF failure of state and state 4,6,8,9,11
Doube bridge caused by corresponding TVC failure or FLF failure is stopped transport, accumulated probability PNT0-1It indicates since there are alternating current filter ACF failures
The caused accumulated probability for operating normally converter bridge number NT and being 0, PNT0-1=ps3+ps7+ps10；Accumulated probability PNT0-2Indicate by
In there are caused by direct current component FLF or convertor unit TVC failure normal operation converter bridge number NT be 0 accumulated probability,
PNT0-2=ps4+ps6+ps8+ps9+ps11。
For accumulated probability PNT0-1, according to the spare effect of alternating current filter, will disregard that alternating current filter failure is corresponding to change
Stream bridge number is distinguish, and is further divided into accumulated probability PNT0-11With accumulated probability PNT0-12, PNT0-1=PNT0-11+PNT0-12, for dividing
Spare effect Biao Shi not being considered by 3 corresponding A CF failure of state, it restores to operate normally converter bridge number NT=2 and 7,10 pairs of state
Answering alternating current filter failure to consider spare effect, it restores converter bridge number NT=1, accumulated probability PNT0-11It indicates due to only exchanging
The accumulated probability that converter bridge number NT is 0, P are operated normally caused by filter ACF failureNT0-11=ps3；Accumulated probability PNT0-12
Indicate the normal operation converter bridge number NT as caused by alternating current filter ACF and convertor unit TVC common failure be 0 it is accumulative
Probability, PNT0-12=ps7+ps10。
The case where considering the alternating current filter group at the two poles of the earth in same converter station can be replaced mutually may specifically have following several
Kind:
1, state 3+ state 2
Alternating current filter group positioned at same converter station can be with mutual backup, as shown in figure 4, when the two poles of the earth are respectively at state
3 and when state 2, by adjusting the position of alternating current filter, it can make system that can increase to 2 by 1 with converter bridge number.Therefore exist
Accumulated probability P is subdivided into when calculating accumulated probability PNT0NT0-1With accumulated probability PNT0-2。
2, state 3+ state 7
By adjusting alternating current filter make system can with converter bridge number increase when, and there is a situation where it is different, such as Fig. 5 institute
Show, when the two poles of the earth are respectively at state 3 and state 7, by adjusting alternating current filter position, can make system that can use converter bridge
Number increases to 2 by 0.Therefore accumulated probability P is being calculatedNT0-1When be subdivided into accumulated probability PNT0-11With accumulated probability PNT0-12。
3, state 10+ state 7
By adjusting alternating current filter make system can with converter bridge number increase when, and there is a situation where it is different, such as Fig. 6 institute
Show, when the two poles of the earth are respectively at state 10 and state 7, by adjusting alternating current filter position, can make system that can use converter bridge
Number increases to 1 by 0.Therefore accumulated probability P is being calculatedNT0-1When be subdivided into accumulated probability PNT0-11With accumulated probability PNT0-12。
4.2) considering in same converter station the respective alternating current filter group in the two poles of the earth can mutually exchange that (same converter station has two
Pole), general generating function is constructed, and calculate according to general generating function and obtain the same bipolar normal operation converter bridge of converter station
The corresponding probability of stability of number NT ':
Following general generation letter can be used in extra-high voltage DC transmission system monopole with converter bridge number and state probability
Number indicates are as follows:
PNT0=PNT0-1+PNT0-2
PNT0-1=PNT0-11+PNT0-11
Wherein, z is the variate-value of general generating function, for distinguishing the value for indicating to operate normally converter bridge number NT, z2
Indicate that operating normally converter bridge number NT is 2.
Two extremely parallel connections, and converter bridge number meets same probability distribution, the two poles of the earth alternating current filter occurs therefore
When barrier causes doube bridge to be stopped transport, two kinds of situations can be divided into:
Second of alternating current filter failure occurs when ipsilateral, and the two poles of the earth converter bridge is stopped transport；
Second of alternating current filter failure occurs in heteropleural, since the alternating current filter group of same pole can be standby each other
With extra-high voltage DC transmission system is equivalent to monopole stoppage in transit, still has two converter bridges to keep normal operating condition, two kinds of situation probability
Quite.
Meanwhile considering the recovery Effects of alternating current filter mutual backup, and it is based on the general generating function method of parallel system, it is whole
The general generating function that a extra-high voltage DC transmission system operates normally converter bridge number can indicate are as follows:
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=4 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=4=PNT2 2
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=3 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=3=2PNT2PNT1
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=2 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=2=2PNT2PNT0+2PNT1PNT0-11+PNT1 2+PNT0-1 2/2+PNT0-11PNT0-12+2PNT0-11PNT0-2
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=1 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=1=2PNT1PNT0-12+2PNT1PNT0-2+PNT0-12 2/2+2PNT0-12PNT0-2
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=0 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=0=PNT0-11 2/2+PNT0-12 2/2+PNT0-11PNT0-12+PNT0-2 2
The invention has the following advantages:
This invention simplifies the topological structure of existing system, realize quick and precisely assessment extra-high voltage DC transmission system can
By property as a result, convenient for instructing Operation of Electric Systems to plan the formulation with alternative scheme.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the capital equipment and topological structure of extra-high voltage DC transmission system.
Fig. 2 is the monopole equivalent model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system.
Fig. 3 is the monopolar regime spatial model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system.
Fig. 4 is to consider that alternating current filter exchanges the schematic diagram of one of situation in the method for the present invention.
Fig. 5 is to consider that alternating current filter exchanges two schematic diagram of situation in the method for the present invention.
Fig. 6 is to consider that alternating current filter exchanges three schematic diagram of situation in the method for the present invention.
Specific embodiment
With reference to embodiments and attached drawing is described further.
It is as follows using the embodiment of the method for the present invention:
The component reliability parameter that present example uses is by paper " reliability of UHVDC transmission system appraisal procedure
(modern electric, 2011,28 (4): 1-6) " and paper " Reliability Equivalence and Sensitivity
Analysis to UHVDC Systems Based on Matrix Description of F&D Method.IEEE
Transactions on Power Delivery, 2015:1-1 " it obtains, as shown in table 1:
Table 1
| Element | Failure rate (times/year) | Repair rate (times/year) |
| Converter valve | 0.1374 | 1460.000 |
| Converter power transformer | 0.0126 | 290.501 |
| Valve control and protection location | 0.088 | 1158.12 |
| DC filter and pole equipment | 0.25 | 730 |
| Transmission line of electricity | 4.7080 | 1101.890 |
| Alternating current filter | 0.2 | 876 |
1) according to the topological structure of extra-high voltage DC transmission system and its component reliability parameter, connect simplifying is obtained
Each component dependability parameter in the monopole equivalent model and monopole equivalent model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system:
λ1=0.2388
μ1=1114.8
λ2=0.2000
μ2=876.0
λ3=5.2080
μ3=1049.9
2) it is closed according to the conversion between all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage DC transmission system and its each malfunction
System, establishes the monopolar regime spatial model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system；
3) according to the monopolar regime spatial model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system, building includes capacity status transfer matrix
The differential equation of X:
It calculates again and acquires the corresponding probability of stability of all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage DC transmission system.
p1s=0.9938
p2s=8.464e-04
p3s=4.540e-04
p4s=0.0049
p5s=1.804e-07
p6s=9.036e-08
p7s=1.701e-07
p8s=2.037e-06
p9s=2.567e-11
p10s=2.323e-11
p11s=2.864e-10
4) identical capacity status is merged to obtain and operates normally the corresponding accumulated probability of converter bridge number NT in monopole.
PNT2=0.9938
PNT1=8.466e-04
PNT0=0.0054
PNT0-1=4.542e-04
PNT0-2=0.0049
PNT0-11=4.540e-04
PNT0-11=0.002e-04
The corresponding probability of stability of bipolar middle normal operation converter bridge number NT ' is obtained further according to accumulated probability, as extra-high
Press the reliability of DC transmission system.Implement using the method for the present invention and " extra-high voltage DC transmission system can using paper
By property appraisal procedure (modern electric, 2011,28 (4): 1-6) " method as control, two implement the results are shown in Table 2:
Table 2
Converter bridge number accumulated probability is as shown in table 3:
Table 3
| Converter bridge number | Nt=4 | Nt≥3 | Nt≥2 | Nt≥1 | Nt≥0 |
| Accumulated probability | 98.757% | 98.926% | 99.997% | 99.998% | 1 |
It, can be with rapid evaluation spy by above-mentioned result of implementation as it can be seen that the method for the present invention simplifies the topological structure of existing system
HVDC transmission system reliability extends also to the systems reliability analysis that other field has bipolar symmetric property.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculation method based on bipolar symmetrical feature, it is characterised in that including with
Lower step:
1) according to the topological structure of extra-high voltage DC transmission system and its component reliability parameter, connect, it is extra-high to simplify acquisition
Press each component dependability parameter in the monopole equivalent model and monopole equivalent model of DC transmission system；
The step 1) is specifically:
The topological structure of extra-high voltage DC transmission system is simplified, by converter power transformer CT, converter valve CV and valve control CC group
It closes and constitutes convertor unit TVC, DC filter DCF and DC line DCL combination is constituted into direct current component FLF；And basis simultaneously
It is equivalent to be calculated using the following equation acquisition monopole for the dependability parameter of each element in extra-high voltage DC transmission system topological structure
The dependability parameter of each component in model:
λ1=λCT+λCV+λCC
λ2=λACF
μ2=μACF
λ3=λDCF+λDCL+λDCF
Wherein, λCTAnd μCTRespectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of converter power transformer, λCVAnd μCCRespectively indicate the failure of converter valve
Rate and repair rate, λCCAnd μCCRespectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of valve control and protective device, λACFAnd μACFRespectively indicate exchange
The failure rate and repair rate of filter, λDCFAnd μDCFRespectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of DC filter, λDCLAnd μDCLPoint
Not Biao Shi DC line failure rate and repair rate；λ1And μ1Respectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of convertor unit TVC, λ2With
μ2Respectively indicate the failure rate and repair rate of alternating current unit ACF, λ3And μ3Indicate the failure rate and repair rate of direct current component FLF；
2) it according to the transformational relation between all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage DC transmission system and its each malfunction, builds
The monopolar regime spatial model of vertical extra-high voltage DC transmission system；
3) according to the monopolar regime spatial model of extra-high voltage DC transmission system, building includes capacity status transfer matrix X
The differential equation, then calculate and acquire the corresponding probability of stability of all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage DC transmission system；
4) identical capacity status is merged to obtain and operates normally the corresponding accumulated probability of converter bridge number NT in monopole, further according to tired
It counts probability and obtains the corresponding probability of stability of bipolar middle normal operation converter bridge number NT ', as extra-high voltage DC transmission system
Reliability.
2. a kind of reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculating side based on bipolar symmetrical feature according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that: the step 2) is specifically:
2.1) all possible malfunction of extra-high voltage direct-current transmission monopolar DC system is divided into following 11 kinds of states:
State 1 is the state that various components do not break down in monopole equivalent model；
State 2 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that a convertor unit TVC of side breaks down；
State 3 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that the alternating current filter ACF of side breaks down；
State 4 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that direct current component FLF breaks down；
State 5 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that a respective convertor unit TVC for two sides breaks down；
State 6 is that monopole equivalent model only has the state that two convertor unit TVC of side break down；
State 7 is that monopole equivalent model only has a convertor unit TVC of side and the alternating current filter ACF of side breaks down
State；
State 8 is the state that monopole equivalent model only has that a convertor unit TVC of direct current component FLF and side breaks down；
State 9 is that monopole equivalent model only has two convertor unit TVC of side and a convertor unit TVC of the other side occurs
The state of failure；
State 10 is that monopole equivalent model only has a respective convertor unit TVC for two sides and an alternating current filter of side
The state that ACF breaks down；
State 11 is that monopole equivalent model only has direct current component FLF and a respective convertor unit TVC for two sides breaks down
State；
2.2) following transformational relation is then formed between 1~state of state 11:
State 1 is mutually converted between 2~state of state 4 respectively: state 1 is with four times of convertor unit TVC failure rate λ1It is transformed into
State 2, state 2 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 1；State 1 is with twice of alternating current unit ACF event
Barrier rate λ2It is transformed into state 3, state 3 is with one times of alternating current unit ACF repair rate μ2It is transformed into state 1；State 1 is straight with one times
Flow unit F LF failure rate λ3It is transformed into state 4, state 4 is with one times of direct current component FLF repair rate μ3It is transformed into state 1；
State 2 is mutually converted between 5~state of state 8 respectively: state 2 is with twice of convertor unit TVC failure rate λ1It is transformed into
State 5, state 5 is with twice of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 2；State 2 is with one times of convertor unit TVC event
Barrier rate λ1It is transformed into state 6, state 6 is with twice of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 2；State 2 is with twice of friendship
Flow unit ACF failure rate λ2It is transformed into state 7, state 7 is with one times of alternating current unit ACF repair rate μ2It is transformed into state 2；State 2
With one times of direct current component FLF failure rate λ3It is transformed into state 8, state 8 is with one times of direct current component FLF repair rate μ3It is transformed into
State 2；
State 5 can be converted mutually between 9~state of state 11 respectively: state 5 is with twice of convertor unit TVC failure rate λ1Turn
State 9 is changed to, state 9 is with twice of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 5；State 5 is with twice of alternating current unit
ACF failure rate λ2It is transformed into state 10, state 10 is with one times of alternating current unit ACF repair rate μ2It is transformed into state 5；State 5 is with one
Direct current component FLF failure rate λ again3It is transformed into state 11, state 11 is with one times of direct current component FLF repair rate μ3It is transformed into shape
State 5；
State 9 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 6, state 11 is repaired with twice of convertor unit TVC
Rate μ1It is transformed into state 8, state 8 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 4, state 10 can be changed with twice
Flow unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 7, state 7 is with one times of convertor unit TVC repair rate μ1It is transformed into state 3.
3. a kind of reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculating side based on bipolar symmetrical feature according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that: the step 3) specifically:
3.1) what building following formula indicated includes the differential equation of capacity status transfer matrix X:
Wherein, t indicates time, λ1Indicate convertor unit TVC failure rate, μ1Indicate convertor unit TVC repair rate, λ2Indicate exchange
Filter ACF failure rate, μ2Indicate alternating current filter ACF repair rate, λ3Indicate direct current component FLF failure rate, μ3Indicate direct current list
First FLF repair rate；p1~p11Respectively indicate the probability that monopole equivalent model is 1~state of state 11, k1~k11Respectively indicate appearance
Cornerwise 1st~the 11st element of state-transition matrix X is measured, is specifically calculated using the following equation:
Wherein, XijIndicate that the element of the i-th row jth column in capacity status transfer matrix X, i indicate row serial number, j indicates column serial number；
3.2) by differential equation Markov approximation theory, the stationary value for acquiring the Probability p of each state is calculated, as extra-high voltage
The corresponding probability of stability ps of all possible 11 kinds of malfunctions of DC transmission system monopole equivalent model1~ps11。
4. a kind of reliability of UHVDC transmission system calculating side based on bipolar symmetrical feature according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that: the step 4) specifically:
4.1) the identical state of the corresponding normal operation converter bridge number NT of state is merged, calculates and obtains same converter station
Monopole in operate normally the corresponding accumulated probability of converter bridge number NT, it is specific as follows:
Operate normally the accumulated probability P that converter bridge number NT is 2NT2It is calculated as PNT2=ps1；
Operate normally the accumulated probability P that converter bridge number NT is 1NT1It is calculated as PNT1=ps2+ps5；
Operate normally the accumulated probability P that converter bridge number NT is 0NT0It is calculated as PNT0=ps3+ps4+ps6+ps7+ps8+ps9+ps10+
ps11；
The accumulated probability P for being 0 for operating normally converter bridge number NTNT0Situation is further divided into accumulated probability PNT0-1And accumulated probability
PNT0-2, PNT0=PNT0-1+PNT0-2, accumulated probability PNT0-1It indicates since there are normal operations caused by alternating current filter ACF failure
The accumulated probability that converter bridge number NT is 0, PNT0-1=ps3+ps7+ps10；Accumulated probability PNT0-2It indicates since there are direct current components
The accumulated probability that converter bridge number NT is 0, P are operated normally caused by FLF or convertor unit TVC failureNT0-2=ps4+ps6+
ps8+ps9+ps11；
For accumulated probability PNT0-1, it is further divided into accumulated probability PNT0-11With accumulated probability PNT0-12, PNT0-1=PNT0-11+PNT0-12, tire out
Count probability PNT0-11Indicate the normal operation converter bridge number NT as caused by only alternating current filter ACF failure be 0 it is accumulative general
Rate, PNT0-11=ps3；Accumulated probability PNT0-12It indicates as caused by alternating current filter ACF and convertor unit TVC common failure just
The often accumulated probability that operation converter bridge number NT is 0, PNT0-12=ps7+ps10；
4.2) consider that the respective alternating current filter group in the two poles of the earth can be exchanged mutually in same converter station, calculate and obtain same converter station pair
Pole operates normally the corresponding probability of stability of converter bridge number NT ':
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=4 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=4=PNT2 2
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=3 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=3=2PNT2PNT1
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=2 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=2=2PNT2PNT0+2PNT1PNT0-11+PNT1 2+PNT0-1 2/2+PNT0-11PNT0-12+2PNT0-11PNT0-2
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=1 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=1=2PNT1PNT0-12+2PNT1PNT0-2+PNT0-12 2/2+2PNT0-12PNT0-2
The corresponding probability of stability in converter bridge number NT '=0 of the same bipolar middle normal operation of converter station calculates are as follows:
PNT'=0=PNT0-11 2/2+PNT0-12 2/2+PNT0-11PNT0-12+PNT0-2 2。
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