CN107038507A - One kind surveys rain satellite rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure - Google Patents
One kind surveys rain satellite rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention uses rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure of the survey rain satellite to haze weather, well array is rolled into a ball using rain, overcome the mixing interference problem of haze and rainfall, relatively accurate result is obtained in certain limit, current China has been filled up well and has mixed the diversity caused and the blank of complicated Journal of Sex Research to haze and other weather, and the research to other weather before haze does not have radical cure completely also has good reference.
Description
Technical field：
Rain satellite rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure, more particularly to a kind of haze weather correspondence are surveyed the present invention relates to one kind
The survey rain satellite rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure of rain group.
Background technology：
Chinese Urbanization development in the last few years is more and more faster, and infrastructure and economic development are rapid, and gratifying behind is brought
One very big puzzlement problem, haze is increasingly severe.And with haze be rainfall pollution and complexity so that before
The experience of weather forecast for many years and database matching it is not good, it is impossible to it is accurate simultaneously to be forecast with intelligent measure.
It has been investigated that, the mixing on haze and rainfall is disturbed, and the concept rolled into a ball using rain can be handled preferably, and
Certain limit obtains reliable result.Rain group refers to the lifetime in more than 2h, tens of to 100 kilometers of space scale (γ chis in category
Middle and high end is spent to Meso β scale low and middle-end), 1h precipitation is 10mm isohyet area encompassed.It is isolated convection current system
Precipitation storm in system, is an important component of mesoscale convective system (MCS).Rain group is also that China is particularly southern
The big vast system of the main cause in side, the task of top priority for carrying out Rainstorm Forecast is generation, development and the Evolution Mechanism of rain group to be furtherd investigate.
But in view of the particularity of rain group, it is difficult to delimit and monitored, and causes very big measurement difficulty, while also make it that weather is difficult
Forecast is accurate, especially forecasts that cycle bigger difficulty is bigger.
The content of the invention：
The technical problems to be solved by the invention are the shortcomings existed for above-mentioned prior art, and battle array is rolled into a ball using rain
Row, use rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure of the survey rain satellite to haze weather.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention to solve the technical problem is that：A kind of survey rain satellite rainfall that array is rolled into a ball based on rain
Intelligent measure and forecasting procedure, specific measurement and forecasting procedure are as follows：
Step one, rain group array is set up.
Step 2, rain group array availability analysis.
Assess in step 3, the point face for adding up precipitation.
Step 4, carries out rain group ARRAY PROCESSING.
Step 5, with external database matching.
Step 6, intelligent measure and forecast.
For step one, specifically, Z-R relations are built to several raindrop size distribution samples in ground acquisition, standard is can be described as
Specimen sample is rolled into a ball with rain；The rain group's sample for collecting satellite measures sample combinations matches with rainfall gauge, with certain and inherence
Physical link, handled by terminal mainframe computer, now respective combination matching constitutes rain group array.
For step 2, specifically, formula is utilizedTerminal mass computing
Machine carries out calculating processing, if δ QZIn the first error range, then data can use, and carry out step 3；If in the second error range
It is interior, then sample offset is carried out, repeats step 2；If beyond the second error range, sampling error is larger, removes rain group battle array
The combination of row, changes another region resampling and repeats step one and step 2.
Preferably, the first error range is 100, and the second error range is 1000.
For step 3, specifically, survey rain satellite and the data at each Correlation monitoring station are issued into terminal by wireless signal
Mainframe computer, in radius 230km 0.5 ° of PPI layer with one by when the A of representative relationship that updatesBS(AMS) make precipitation point
(1 × 1km2) is estimated, specific appraisal procedure is as follows：
S31：Each discrete rainfall gauge hour is measured as QGi, corresponding each station measurement sum is QGS, correspond to defending for each rainfall website
Star hour is measured as ZBi,Wherein, N is the precipitation station number in the S of region, ABSIt is generation
Table section ZBS-QGSThe coefficient of relation.
S32：To ZOH-Q GData implementation quality is controlled, and optionally performs list (one) level or double (one and two) level quality controls
System.
S33：According to footprint A hourlyBSAnd AMS, judge to lack survey if there is satellite or the cycle be long, then to being
Row satellite data takes interpolation algorithm.
S34：Picture dot (x, y) calculates the one hour accumulative rainfall amount Q in ground of radar estimation one by oneRB(QRM), it can thus be concluded that arriving
Detailed distribution map product, specific formula is as follows：
S35：With by when the average E of region-wide overall process (S) and F (S) carry out some faces and assess to sentence, wherein, M represents that precipitation is complete
The when number of process, N is region-wide precipitation station number, QRi,tAnd QGi,tRepresent i-th of precipitation station t hours by radar estimation and
The hour cumulant of rainfall gauge actual measurement, formula is as follows：
Preferably, described face, which is assessed to sentence, can use single-stage or bipolar quality control.
For step 4, specifically, S41：Qualified rain group array data, determines whether strong convection in receiving step three
The corresponding rain group array of weather, if carrying out step S42, if it is not, continuing the judgement that next rain rolls into a ball array.
S42：Server receives Lighting Position Data in strong convective weather.
S43：Server receives atmospheric electric field detector data in strong convective weather.
S44：Server receives automatic Weather Station meteorological element live data in strong convective weather.
Specifically, the automatic Weather Station meteorological element live data, including measurement meteorological element data, including temperature, humidity,
Wind direction and wind velocity, air pressure, visibility and rainfall.
S45：Intellectual analysis judges influence area, and according to above-mentioned S42~S44 data, array is rolled into a ball using specific rain
The region that method intelligent decision is influenceed by this factor.
S46：Server receives the fact of strong convective weather Satellite according to base data.
S47：The satellite fact received is handled using satellite extrapolation algorithm.
S48：Region, data lattice point are carried out to satellite extrapolated data.
Specifically, the region, the processing of data lattice pointization are analyzed satellite extrapolated data, to linear interpolation or non-
Linear interpolation method draws the lattice point data in the region.
For step 5, specifically, the above-mentioned data received are further carried out with comprehensive analysis, judgement, positioning are strong right
Flow weather region；Satellite is inputted with intensity of wave parameter X1；Backtracking and number are carried out according to automatic Weather Station historical data, satellite historical summary
According to pushing back, to satellite with intensity of wave parameter X1 weighted W1, new master data is exported, by that analogy；Input season time parameter
X2, air field strength parameter X3, lightning impact parameter X4, wind-force parameter X5, precipitation parameter X6, and carry out respective weight.
Further, read group total is carried out according to all new datas that output is calculated after weighting, according to formula R=X1*W1+
X2*W2+X3*W3+X4*W4+X5*W5+X6*W6, draws the comprehensive parameters R of strong convective weather analysis model.
Further, contrasted according to the comprehensive parameters R of strong convective weather analysis model and early warning threshold values Y.
For step 6, specifically, the push transmission request of severe Convective Weather Warnings information is according to modal analysis results and in advance
Alert threshold values Y contrasts, if R >=Y is big, sends early warning request, otherwise do not send early warning.
The present invention is due to taking above-mentioned technical proposal, and it has the advantages that：
The present invention rolls into a ball battle array using rain well using rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure of the rain satellite to haze weather is surveyed
Row, overcome the mixing interference problem of haze and rainfall, relatively accurate result are obtained in certain limit, mesh has been filled up well
Preceding China mixes the diversity caused and the blank of complicated Journal of Sex Research to haze and other weather, right before haze does not have radical cure completely
The research of other weather also has good reference.
Brief description of the drawings：
Fig. 1 is the structural representation of rainfall intelligent measure of the present invention and forecasting procedure correspondence system.
Fig. 2 is rainfall intelligent measure of the present invention and the flow chart of forecasting procedure.
Fig. 3 is the space-time corresponding relation schematic diagram in the rainy group's array of three kinds of surroundings wind fields.
Fig. 4 is the handling process schematic diagram that qualified rain rolls into a ball array.
Embodiment：
Present disclosure is described further below in conjunction with accompanying drawing.
As shown in Fig. 2 a kind of survey rain satellite rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure that array is rolled into a ball based on rain, specific measurement and
Forecasting procedure is as follows：
Step one, rain group array is set up.
Specifically, the suspension observed by satellite has a certain physical attribute (reflectivity factor Z) and fortune in an atmosphere
The raindrop set colony of dynamic characteristic (falling speed ω and horizontal velocity V) is referred to as rain group sample, and rain group sample level is provided herein
Yardstick is identical with satellite data processing resolution ratio, is 0.1km under rectangular co-ordinate.
Z-R relations are built to several raindrop size distribution samples in ground acquisition, can be described as accurate rolling into a ball specimen sample with rain；Make to defend
Rain group's sample and the rainfall gauge that star is collected measure sample combinations matches, with certain and inherent physical link, pass through terminal
Mainframe computer processing, now respective combination matching constitutes rain group array.
Quasi- commaterial rain group specimen sample QSMVS (Quasi-Same Matter Rain Volume Sampling).Defend
The rain that talent scout surveys is rolled into a ball sample vertical drop or had concurrently and sampled again by rainfall gauge after translational motion, and (X-coordinate direction of principal axis represents ring to Fig. 3
The synthesis wind direction of border wind field) represent rain group sample SRB、SRC、SRASample S under three kinds of surroundings wind fields with rainfall gauge respectivelyGPair
It should be related to.That is SRB→SG, SRC→ SG, SRA → SG, the quasi- commaterial rain group sample correspondence of symbol → expression herein.
Step 2, rain group array availability analysis.
Specifically, formula is utilizedTerminal mainframe computer is calculated
Processing, wherein, δ QZIt is the surplus after different sample cumulatives are offset in two τ before and after the 0-T periods, generally (T=1hr, τ
<0.1hr) meeting very little (especially when change is little before and after Z values), can ignore.
If δ QZIn the first error range, then data can use, and carry out step 3；If in the second error range, carrying out
Sample offset, repeats step 2；If beyond the second error range, sampling error is larger, removes the combination that rain rolls into a ball array,
Change another region resampling and repeat step one and step 2.
Specifically, the first error range is 100, and the second error range is 1000.
Assess in step 3, the point face for adding up precipitation.
Survey rain satellite and the data at each Correlation monitoring station are issued into terminal mainframe computer by wireless signal, in radius
In 230km 0.5 ° of PPI layer with one by when the A of representative relationship that updatesBS(AMS) make precipitation point (1 × 1km2) estimation, specifically
Appraisal procedure is as follows：
S31：Each discrete rainfall gauge hour is measured as QGi, corresponding each station measurement sum is QGS, correspond to defending for each rainfall website
Star hour is measured as ZBi,Wherein, N is the precipitation station number in the S of region, ABSIt is generation
Table section ZBS-QGSThe coefficient of relation.
S32：To ZOH-Q GData implementation quality is controlled, and optionally performs list (one) level or double (one and two) level quality controls
System.
S33：According to footprint A hourlyBSAnd AMS, judge to lack survey if there is satellite or the cycle be long, then to being
Row satellite data takes interpolation algorithm.
S34：Picture dot (x, y) calculates the one hour accumulative rainfall amount Q in ground of radar estimation one by oneRB(QRM), it can thus be concluded that arriving
Detailed distribution map product, specific formula is as follows：
S35：With by when the average E of region-wide overall process (S) and F (S) carry out some faces and assess to sentence, wherein, M represents that precipitation is complete
The when number of process, N is region-wide precipitation station number, QRi,tAnd QGi,tRepresent i-th of precipitation station t hours by radar estimation and
The hour cumulant of rainfall gauge actual measurement, formula is as follows：
Specifically, described face, which is assessed to sentence, can use single-stage or bipolar quality control.
Referring to table 1 below, under single-stage quality control, A in individual example 1BSAnd AMSF (P) be 0.20, and individual example 2 is about then
0.27.If but use twin-stage quality control, then no matter the A of individual example 1 or individual example 2BS(AMS), F (P) can reduce 4-6%, make F
(P) average value is about 0.20.Therefore the present invention reduces a F (P) assessed using twin-stage quality control.
Table 1
Step 4, carries out rain group ARRAY PROCESSING.
Specific process step is as follows：
S41：Qualified rain group array data in receiving step three, determines whether the corresponding rain group battle array of strong convective weather
Row, if carrying out step S42, if it is not, continuing the judgement that next rain rolls into a ball array.
S42：Server receives Lighting Position Data in strong convective weather.
Specifically, the Lighting Position Data includes Ground flash and cloud dodges data, the Ground flash is divided into positive sudden strain of a muscle, bears and dodge,
The cloud, which dodges, is divided into interior cloud, thin clouds and data, and thus judges that lightning is settled in an area.
S43：Server receives atmospheric electric field detector data in strong convective weather.
Specifically, the atmospheric electric field detector is used for measuring atmospheric electric field and its change, sense is produced in the electric field using conductor
The principle of electric charge is answered to measure electric-field intensity.
S44：Server receives automatic Weather Station meteorological element live data in strong convective weather.
Specifically, the automatic Weather Station meteorological element live data, including measurement meteorological element data, including temperature, humidity,
Wind direction and wind velocity, air pressure, visibility and rainfall.
S45：Intellectual analysis judges influence area, and according to above-mentioned S42~S44 data, array is rolled into a ball using specific rain
The region that method intelligent decision is influenceed by this factor.
S46：Server receives the fact of strong convective weather Satellite according to base data.
S47：The satellite fact received is handled using satellite extrapolation algorithm.
Further, quantitative Rainfall estimates are tried to achieve through relational expression Z=arb；Parameter Z sends out for satellite in the relational expression
Rate is penetrated, parameter r is rate of rainall, and parameter a is automatic rain gauge data, the contour satellite reflection rate of 2 kilometers of b height above sea level, with linear regression
Method real time correction；
Further, the quantitative Rainfall estimates, rainfall just started or rain gauge data deficiencies in the case of, a, b ginseng
Number is using the default value for closing the local weather of symbol；
Further, the satellite echo is followed the trail of uses the multiple dimensioned light stream calculus of variations in current operation system, to catch rain
The multiple dimensioned motion in area；Specifically, the analysis yardstick of the first level is maximum, rounds 4/13 for the multiple dimensioned light stream calculus of variations
The width (i.e. the satellite scanning range of 256 kilometers of radius) of computational fields, the second layer is then set to 1/5th width of computational fields, and
Since third layer level, every layer of resolution ratio is set to the double of last layer level, until final layer 7 level.And due to every level
Optical flow analysis, all provide first guess by the optical flow field of last layer level, so among the analysis of final level, do not having particularly
On the region for having satellite echo, the motion vector of all large scales has been adopted as heir automatically.Through this multiple dimensioned analysis program,
Motion vector of the rain band under each setting resolution ratio or yardstick, which is able to successfully catch, to be obtained, and its overall group velocity and indivedual times
The phase velocity of ripple also can thus be reflected in final analysis.
S48：Region, data lattice point are carried out to satellite extrapolated data.
Specifically, the region, the processing of data lattice pointization are analyzed satellite extrapolated data, to linear interpolation or non-
Linear interpolation method draws the lattice point data in the region；
Further, the linear interpolation method is applied to the region not influenceed by extraneous specific obstacle, and such as high building hinders
Gear, draws accurate lattice point data, otherwise, and the ginseng of size dynamic adjustment non-linear interpolation is influenceed according to the region barrier
Number；
Step 5, with external database matching.
Specific matching step is as follows：
S51：The above-mentioned data received are further carried out with comprehensive analysis, judges, position strong convective weather region.
Specifically, according to the master data behind localization region, using the regression analysis based on machine learning to automatic
Historical data, the progress backtracking of satellite historical summary and the data of standing are pushed back, and fixed point region meteorological disaster early warning threshold values is deduced
Identification and setting, and according to the dynamic calculation and adjustment of early warning threshold values.
S52：Satellite is inputted with intensity of wave parameter X1.
Specifically, the satellite echo strength dbz values are drawn according to the analysis of satellite base data, and according to the strong of satellite echo
Degree and mobile trend, the influence to the region set corresponding parameter value X1.
S53：Backtracking is carried out according to automatic Weather Station historical data, satellite historical summary and data are pushed back, to the same intensity of wave of satellite
Parameter X1 weighted W1, export new master data, by that analogy.
S54：Season time parameter X2 is inputted, to season time parameter X2 weighteds W2.
S55：Air field strength parameter X3 is inputted, to air field strength X3 parameter weightings weight W3.
S56：Lightning impact parameter X4 is inputted, to lightning impact parameter X4 weighteds W4.
S57：Wind-force parameter X5 is inputted, to wind-force parameter X5 weighteds W5.
S58：Precipitation parameter X6 is inputted, to precipitation parameter X6 weighteds W6.
S59：All new datas according to output is calculated after weighting carry out read group total, according to formula R=X1*W1+X2*W2
+ X3*W3+X4*W4+X5*W5+X6*W6, draws the comprehensive parameters R of strong convective weather analysis model.
S123, is contrasted according to the comprehensive parameters R of strong convective weather analysis model and early warning threshold values Y.
Step 6, intelligent measure and forecast.
Specifically, severe Convective Weather Warnings information, which is pushed, sends request according to modal analysis results and early warning threshold values Y contrasts,
If R >=Y is big, early warning request is sent, early warning is not otherwise sent.
Above content is to combine specific preferred embodiment further description made for the present invention, it is impossible to assert
The specific implementation of the present invention is confined to these explanations.For general technical staff of the technical field of the invention,
On the premise of not departing from present inventive concept, some simple deduction or replace can also be made, should all be considered as belonging to the present invention's
Protection domain.
Claims (10)
1. one kind surveys rain satellite rainfall intelligent measure and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that specific measurement and forecasting procedure are as follows：
Step one, rain group array is set up；
Step 2, rain group array availability analysis；
Assess in step 3, the point face for adding up precipitation；
Step 4, carries out rain group ARRAY PROCESSING；
Step 5, with external database matching；
Step 6, intelligent measure and forecast.
2. measurement according to claim 1 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：For step one, specifically, adopted on ground
Collect several raindrop size distribution samples to build Z-R relations, can be described as accurate with rain group specimen sample；Make the rain group sample that satellite is collected
This measures sample combinations matches with rainfall gauge, with certain and inherent physical link, is handled by terminal mainframe computer, this
Shi Xiangying combinations matches constitute rain group array..
3. measurement according to claim 2 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：For step 2, specifically, formula is utilizedTerminal mainframe computer carries out calculating processing, if δ QZIn the first error range
Interior, then data can use, and carry out step 3；If in the second error range, carrying out sample offset, repeat step 2；If
Beyond the second error range, then sampling error is larger, removes the combination that rain rolls into a ball array, changes another region resampling and repetition
Step one and step 2 are carried out,
Wherein, δ QZIt is the surplus after different sample cumulatives are offset in two τ before and after the 0-T periods.
4. measurement according to claim 2 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：For step 3, survey rain satellite by each
The data at Correlation monitoring station issue terminal mainframe computer by wireless signal, in radius 230km 0.5 ° of PPI layer with one by
The A of Shi Gengxin representative relationshipBS(AMS) make precipitation point (1 × 1km2) estimation, specific appraisal procedure is as follows：
S31：Each discrete rainfall gauge hour is measured as QGi, corresponding each station measurement sum is QGS, correspondingly the satellite of each rainfall website is small
When be measured as ZBi,Wherein, N is the precipitation station number in the S of region, ABSIt is Representative Region
Domain ZBS-QGSThe coefficient of relation；
S32：To ZOH-QGData implementation quality is controlled, and optionally performs list (one) level or double (one and two) level quality controls；
S33：According to footprint A hourlyBSAnd AMS, judge to lack survey if there is satellite or the cycle be long, then series is defended
Sing data takes interpolation algorithm；
S34：Picture dot (x, y) calculates the one hour accumulative rainfall amount Q in ground of radar estimation one by oneRB(QRM), it can thus be concluded that arriving detailed
Distribution map product, specific formula is as follows：
S35：With by when the average E of region-wide overall process (S) and F (S) carry out some faces and assess to sentence, wherein, M represents precipitation overall process
When number, N be region-wide precipitation station number, QRi,tAnd QGi,tRepresent that i-th of precipitation station was estimated and rainfall at t hours by radar
The hour cumulant of actual measurement is counted, formula is as follows：
5. measurement according to claim 4 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：Preferably, described face, which is assessed, sentences and can adopt
With single-stage or bipolar quality control.
6. measurement according to claim 2 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：For step 4, specifically,
S41：Qualified rain group array data in receiving step three, determines whether the corresponding rain group array of strong convective weather, if
It is to carry out step S42, if it is not, continuing the judgement that next rain rolls into a ball array；
S42：Server receives Lighting Position Data in strong convective weather；
S43：Server receives atmospheric electric field detector data in strong convective weather；
S44：Server receives automatic Weather Station meteorological element live data in strong convective weather；
S45：Intellectual analysis judges influence area, and according to above-mentioned S42~S44 data, array approach is rolled into a ball using specific rain
The region that intelligent decision is influenceed by this factor；
S46：Server receives the fact of strong convective weather Satellite according to base data；
S47：The satellite fact received is handled using satellite extrapolation algorithm；
S48：Region, data lattice point are carried out to satellite extrapolated data.
7. measurement according to claim 6 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：For step 5, received to above-mentioned
Data further carry out comprehensive analysis, judge, position strong convective weather region；Satellite is inputted with intensity of wave parameter X1；According to certainly
Dynamic station historical data, the progress backtracking of satellite historical summary and data are pushed back, to satellite with intensity of wave parameter X1 weighted W1, output
New master data, by that analogy；Input season time parameter X2, air field strength parameter X3, lightning impact parameter X4, wind-force parameter
X5, precipitation parameter X6, and carry out respective weight.
8. measurement according to claim 7 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：According to calculating all new of output after weighting
Data carry out read group total, according to formula R=X1*W1+X2*W2+X3*W3+X4*W4+X5*W5+X6*W6, draw strong convection day
The comprehensive parameters R of gas analysis model.
9. measurement according to claim 8 and forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：For step 6, severe Convective Weather Warnings
Information, which is pushed, sends request according to modal analysis results and early warning threshold values Y contrasts, if R >=Y is big, sends early warning request, otherwise
Do not send early warning.
10. one kind surveys rain satellite system, itself and terminal phase wireless connection, it is characterised in that it can carry out claim 1~10
Measurement and forecasting procedure described in any one.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108761461A (en) * | 2018-05-29 | 2018-11-06 | 南京信息工程大学 | Precipitation forecast method based on Weather Radar sequential image |
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN108761461A (en) * | 2018-05-29 | 2018-11-06 | 南京信息工程大学 | Precipitation forecast method based on Weather Radar sequential image |
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