CN107016488A - A kind of process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, it is based on S types curve and expertise, optimizes adjustment, and realization is estimated to process unit natural hazard risk.Compared to fuzzy evaluation, Shepand interpolation and S type curves, the present invention combines expertise and logistic curve (S types curve) and gone forward side by side one-step optimization index valued curve, the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure of acquisition will more accurately characterize chemical industry process dangerous characteristic, more effectively instruct enterprise to carry out classification management and control.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to petrochemical industry Safety Risk in Production assessment technology field, and in particular to a kind of process dangerous is continuous
Change natural hazard risk appraisal procedure.
Background technology
Petrochemical industry is mainstay of the national economy industry, and as China's economy tells development, process of industrialization is deepened constantly,
Chemical production device maximization, complication make it that the possibility for occurring severe and great casualty is also increasing, and the consequence caused is tighter
Weight.The especially big blast accident of petrochina Jilin Shuan Ben factories on November 13rd, 2005 causes 8 people dead, and people more than 10,000 is evacuated, made simultaneously
Into what external river severe contamination of downstream；The organic workshop hair in the Guangxi on the 26th of August in 2008 Yizhou Guang Wei chemical inc
Raw explosion accident, causes 20 people dead, direct economy is up to more than 7,500 ten thousand yuan；On November 19th, 2011 combines chemical industry wholly-owned subsidiary
Significant explosion accident occurs for Shandong Xintai City connectionization, causes 14 people dead.Therefore people are to the requirement more and more higher of chemical industry safety,
It is more and more transparent clear.
Stress accident prevention and contingency management compared to traditional chemical industry P-FMEA, essential safety is hidden in elimination risk
Trouble is more and more paid attention to.Many index type evaluation methods, such as PIIS, ISI, i-safe and SHE are developed for this
Method etc..On this basis, Li Qiujin et al. is entered using the Shepand interpolation algorithms team essential safety based on genetic algorithm
Row is assessed, and Syaza I.Ahmad et al. are estimated using S types curve to the danger of material, to overcome evaluation index to dash forward
So the occurrence of jump, more accurate reactive material is dangerous.
However, in existing research, because Index grading is less interpolation method error is larger, it is impossible to reaction temperature, pressure
Deng the critical trends of technological parameter, though S type curves overcome above-mentioned difficulties, lack the amendment of expertise.
Further to solve, existing appraisal procedure fails effective integration expertise and temperature, pressure are continuously dangerous, this
Patent proposes a kind of process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, and this method will more accurately characterize chemical process danger
Dangerous characteristic, more effectively instructs enterprise to carry out classification management and control.
The content of the invention
To overcome, to fail effective integration expertise and reactive material in existing assessment of risks method continuously dangerous, and this is specially
Profit provides a kind of new process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, and this method will more accurately characterize chemical industry work
Skill hazard property, more effectively instructs enterprise to carry out classification management and control.
The present invention provides a kind of process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, this base of a fruit curve of its logic-based (S
Type curve) and expert adjustment is optimized to the existing grade scale of danger, realize and process unit natural hazard risk commented
Estimate.
Wherein, the natural hazard risk appraisal procedure is specifically included：
The first step, chooses enterprise；
Second step, chooses technique unit；
3rd step, material essence risk assessment M1；
4th step, the risk assessment M2 of particular matter；
5th step, substance toxicity T is assessed；
6th step, the amount danger I of substance for calculation；
7th step, substance for calculation coefficient M=M1+M2；
8th step, calculates general technology danger P1；
9th step, calculates special process danger P2；
Tenth step, computing unit process dangerous P：P=(P1+1) (P2+1)；
11st step, calculates safe distance danger L；
12nd step, calculating does not conform to rule danger N；
13rd step, calculates surrounding enviroment danger S；
14th step, calculates technique natural hazard risk D：
D=P × M × (1+I) (1+T) × L × N × S.
In the 3rd step, because the danger of technique mainly originates from the danger of material, therefore first to material
Essential danger is estimated, dangerous (the difference representative species of NF, NR with reference to as defined in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) of material essence
Flammability and chemism) determine material coefficient.
In the 4th step, for the material with special nature, in addition it is also necessary to consider its general material institute
Without characteristic.
5th step, the substance toxicity includes two indices, specially substance toxicity coefficient NHWith material smell.
The score value of the amount of substance for calculation is calculated, wherein X according to material type by equation below in 6th step
Unit is English heat × 109,
(1) one class flammable liquid：
LgY=-0.403115+0.378703 (lgX) -0.46402 (lgX)2-0.015379(lgX)3
(2) two class flammable liquids：
LgY=-0.558394+0.363321 (lgX) -0.057296 (lgX)2-0.010759(lgX)3。
Wherein, process dangerous carries out assignment according to technological reaction heat release and heat absorption in the 8th step.
Wherein, in the 9th step in special process danger P2=operation temperature P21+ operating pressure P22+ combustible ranges
And turn close to operation P23+ joints and gasket leakage the P24+ corrosion of combustible range with denuding the use P26+ of P25+ naked light equipment
Dynamic equipment P27.
Wherein, the undesirable L1+ firebreaks of safe distance danger L=1+ safe escapes are not in the 11st step
Meet code requirement L2, wherein, safe escape is undesirable to take 0.05；Firebreak does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15.
Wherein, do not conform in the 12nd step rule danger N=1+ building fire resistings do not meet code requirement N1+ build let out
Pressure does not meet code requirement N2, and building fire resisting does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15；Building pressure release does not meet code requirement and taken
0.15。
Wherein, in the 13rd step, surrounding enviroment are dangerous to carry out value according to the periphery density of population.
Beneficial technique effect
Compared to fuzzy evaluation, Shepand interpolation and S type curves, this patent combination expertise and S type curves go forward side by side one
Optimizing index valued curve is walked, the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure of acquisition will more accurately characterize chemical industry
Process dangerous characteristic, more effectively instructs enterprise to carry out classification management and control.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure flow charts.
Embodiment
A kind of process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, this base of a fruit curve (S types curve) of its logic-based and
Expert optimizes adjustment to the existing grade scale of danger, and realization is estimated to process unit natural hazard risk.
The natural hazard risk appraisal procedure is specifically included：
The first step, chooses enterprise, selects suitable chemical enterprise to carry out assessment of risks, so as to avoid the wave of human and material resources
Take；
Second step, chooses technique unit, and choosing needs the technique unit for assessing natural hazard risk, the inherent peril in enterprise
Spend appraisal procedure and be applied to chemical process device, and to storage tank field, warehouse and do not apply to；
3rd step, material essence risk assessment M1；
4th step, the risk assessment M2 of particular matter；
5th step, substance toxicity T is assessed；
6th step, the amount danger I of substance for calculation；
7th step, substance for calculation coefficient M=M1+M2；
8th step, calculates general technology danger P1；
9th step, calculates special process danger P2；
Tenth step, computing unit process dangerous P：P=(P1+1) (P2+1)；
11st step, calculates safe distance danger L；
12nd step, calculating does not conform to rule danger N；
13rd step, calculates surrounding enviroment danger S；
14th step, calculates technique natural hazard risk D：
D=P × M × (1+I) (1+T) × L × N × S.
In the 3rd step, because the danger of technique mainly originates from the danger of material, therefore first to material
Essential danger is estimated, dangerous (the difference representative species of NF, NR with reference to as defined in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) of material essence
Flammability and chemism) determine material coefficient, as shown in appendix 1.
Table 1
In the 4th step, for the material with special nature, in addition it is also necessary to consider its general material institute
Without characteristic, specific code of points is as shown in table 2.
The particular matter of table 2 danger standards of grading
5th step, the substance toxicity includes two indices, specially substance toxicity coefficient NHWith material smell, comment
Point index is shown in Table 3.
The substance toxicity standards of grading of table 3
The score value of the amount of substance for calculation is calculated, wherein X according to material type by equation below in 6th step
Unit is English heat × 109,
(1) one class flammable liquid：
LgY=-0.403115+0.378703 (lgX) -0.46402 (lgX)2-0.015379(lgX)3
(2) two class flammable liquids：
LgY=-0.558394+0.363321 (lgX) -0.057296 (lgX)2-0.010759(lgX)3
Process dangerous carries out assignment according to technological reaction heat release and heat absorption in 8th step, as shown in table 4.
The process dangerous assignment of table 4
Special process danger P2=operation temperature P21+ operating pressure P22+ combustible ranges are interior in 9th step and connect
The use P26+ rotations of the operation P23+ joints of nearly combustible range and gasket leakage P24+ corrosion with denuding P25+ naked light equipment are set
Standby P27.
The acquisition pattern of the operation temperature 21 is specially：
First, operation temperature and its dangerous corresponding equation (3) are solved, by the expertise shown in table 5 to operation temperature
Spend discrete fractional constraint condition boundary point value and bring equation (1) into, to multiple solving simultaneous equation A, B of acquisition value；
Secondly, by with equation (2) be object function, by multigroup A, B value substitute into equation (1), choose so that equation (2) into
Vertical curve, is obtained so that the danger of operation temperature can be calculated by formula (3).
Wherein, yiIt is flash-point xiCorresponding dangerous values；A, B are constant coefficients；
Wherein, n is numeric type, and value subtracts 2 equal to separation quantity；
The explosion limit constraints of table 5
| Operation temperature/DEG C | Score value |
| (600,1000] | 0.3 |
| (300-600] | 0.225 |
| (200,300] | 0.15 |
| (0,200] | 0.075 |
Wherein, x is temperature, unit for degree Celsius；
The acquisition pattern of the operating pressure P22 is specially
First, operating pressure and its dangerous corresponding equation are solved, by expertise classification discrete to operating pressure about
Beam condition pressure 0.5Mpa score values 0.25,2.5Mpa score values 0.5,5Mpa score values 0.75 bring equation (1) into, to multiple sides of acquisition
Journey simultaneous solution A, B value；
Secondly, by with equation (2) be object function, by multigroup A, B value substitute into equation (1), choose so that equation (2) into
Vertical curve, is obtained so that the danger of operating pressure can be calculated by formula (4).
Wherein, x is pressure, unit for MPa；
It is in the combustible range and close to the operation P23 occurrences of combustible range：
When opening vent valve or not using inert gas shielding in negative-pressure operation, coefficient is 0.50；
Only when instrument or device failure, process equipment is just in combustion range or near it, and coefficient is 0.30；
Because inert gas purge system is impracticable or does not take inert gas purge, operation is set to be always at the model that burns
When in enclosing or near it, coefficient is 0.80.
The joint and gasket leakage P24 occurrences are：
There may be during minor leakage at pump and gland sealing, coefficient is 0.10；
When pump, compressor and flange connections produce normal general leakage, coefficient is 0.30；
The occasion that heat and pressure cycle change is born, coefficient is 0.30；
If the material of technique unit is the slurries for having permeability or abrasion, seal failure, Huo Zhegong may be caused
When skill unit is using axle envelope or stuffing-box is rotated, coefficient is 0.40；
When having glass visor, bellows or expansion joint in unit, coefficient is 1.50.
Corrode and be with abrasion P25 occurrences：
Corrosion rate (including spot corrosion and local corrosion) is less than 0.127mm/a, and coefficient is 0.10；
Corrosion rate is more than 0.127mm/a, and less than 0.254mm/a, coefficient is 0.20；
Corrosion rate is more than 0.254mm/a, and coefficient is 0.50；
If stress corrosion cracking (SCC) has the danger of expansion, coefficient is 0.75；
During corrosion protective lining, coefficient is 0.20.
The use P26 of naked light equipment occurrence is：
Any technique unit that leak materials are leaked more than its flash-point；
X is distance of the source of leaks to naked light facilities air import in formula, and unit is foot, and Y is the use P26 of naked light equipment
Value；
The occurrence of the rotating machinery P27 is：
In evaluation unit using or evaluation unit be equipment rotated below in itself, coefficient 0.5 can be chosen：More than 600 horses
The compressor of power (1 horsepower=735.5W), the pump more than 75 horsepowers, because mixing is uneven, cooling is not enough or terminates after breaking down
Cause the elevated agitator of reaction temperature and circulating pump etc. reason；Other once occurred the large high-speed rotating machinery of accident, such as
Centrifuge etc..
The undesirable L1+ firebreaks of safe distance danger L=1+ safe escapes are not met in 11st step
Code requirement L2, wherein, safe escape is undesirable to take 0.05；Firebreak does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15.
Do not conform to rule danger N=1+ building fire resistings in 12nd step and do not meet the pressure release of code requirement N1+ buildings not
Meet code requirement N2, building fire resisting does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15；Building pressure release does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15.
In 13rd step, surrounding enviroment are dangerous to carry out value according to the periphery density of population, and principle takes according to table 6
Value：
The surrounding enviroment of table 6 danger assignment
Describe embodiments of the present invention in detail using embodiment and accompanying drawing below, how skill is applied to the present invention whereby
Art means solve technical problem, and reach the implementation process of technique effect and can fully understand and implement according to this.
As shown in figure 1, by taking certain petroleum chemical enterprise as an example, the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk provided using the present invention
Appraisal procedure carries out enterprise's risk assessment,
S1：Choose enterprise：By taking certain petroleum chemical enterprise as an example；
S2：Choose technique unit：Alkene portion polypropylene plant uses the " Spher ipol " technologies of Basell companies；
S3：The general danger M1 of material：M1 values 21；
S4：Material particular hazard M2：M2 values 0；
S5：Substance for calculation toxicity risk T：Propylene, therefore T=0.2；
S6：The amount danger I of substance for calculation：It is about 6.0t, the fuel value HC=of propylene in 35m3 reactor inner propene
19.7 (British thermal units/pound), therefore I takes 0.38；
S7：Substance for calculation coefficient M：M=21；
S8：Calculate general technology danger P1：Because polymerisation is that then P1 takes 0.50 to exothermic medium
S9：Calculate special process danger P2：
1) 70 DEG C of reaction temperature, therefore P21=0；
2) reaction pressure is 3.4MP a therefore P22=0.6；
3) unit not its explosion limit and its near operate, therefore P23 takes 0；
4) material of technique unit is that have permeability or corrosive slurries, then may cause seal failure, therefore P24 takes
0.4；
5) corrosion rate ＜ 0.127mm/a, therefore P25 takes 0.10
6) the unit flames of anger is used, therefore P26 does not take；
7) coolant circulation pump failure causes temperature to rise, therefore P27 takes 0.5；
Therefore, special process danger P2=1.6
S10：Computing unit process dangerous P：P=3.9；
S11：Calculate safe distance danger L：Because safe distance all meets the requirements, therefore L=1；
S12：Calculating does not conform to rule danger N：Because do not conform to rule problem, therefore N=1；
S13：Calculate surrounding enviroment danger S：Because the intensive rural area in periphery, S=1.3；
S14：Calculate technique natural hazard risk D：
D=P × M × (1+I) (1+T) × L × N × S=147
All above-mentioned this intellectual properties of primarily implementation, the not this new product of implementation of setting limitation other forms
And/or new method.Those skilled in the art will utilize this important information, the above modification, to realize similar execution feelings
Condition.But, all modifications or transformation belong to the right of reservation based on new product of the present invention.
The above described is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, being not the limitation for making other forms to the present invention, appoint
What those skilled in the art changed or be modified as possibly also with the technology contents of the disclosure above equivalent variations etc.
Imitate embodiment.But it is every without departing from technical solution of the present invention content, the technical spirit according to the present invention is to above example institute
Any simple modification, equivalent variations and the remodeling made, still fall within the protection domain of technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that：This base of a fruit curve (S type of logic-based
Curve) and expert adjustment is optimized to the existing grade scale of danger, realize and process unit natural hazard risk be estimated.
2. process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that specific bag
Include：
The first step, chooses enterprise；
Second step, chooses technique unit；
3rd step, material essence risk assessment M1；
4th step, the risk assessment M2 of particular matter；
5th step, substance toxicity T is assessed；
6th step, the amount danger I of substance for calculation；
7th step, substance for calculation coefficient M=M1+M2；
8th step, calculates general technology danger P1；
9th step, calculates special process danger P2；
Tenth step, computing unit process dangerous P：P=(P1+1) (P2+1)；
11st step, calculates safe distance danger L；
12nd step, calculating does not conform to rule danger N；
13rd step, calculates surrounding enviroment danger S；
14th step, calculates technique natural hazard risk D：
D=P × M × (1+I) (1+T) × L × N × S.
3. process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that：Institute
State in the 3rd step, because the danger of technique mainly originates from the danger of material, therefore the essential danger of material is entered first
Row is assessed, the dangerous (flammability of representative species and the change respectively of NF, NR with reference to as defined in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) of material essence
Learn activity) determine material coefficient.
4. the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claims 1 to 3, it is characterised in that：Institute
State in the 4th step, for the material with special nature, in addition it is also necessary to consider its unexistent characteristic of general material.
5. the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in Claims 1-4, it is characterised in that：It is described
5th step, the substance toxicity includes two indices, specially substance toxicity coefficient NHWith material smell.
6. the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 5, it is characterised in that：It is described
The score value of the amount of substance for calculation is calculated by equation below according to material type in 6th step, wherein X unit be English it is hot ×
109,
(1) one class flammable liquid：
LgY=-0.403115+0.378703 (lgX) -0.46402 (1gX)2-0.015379(lgX)3
(2) two class flammable liquids：
LgY=-0.558394+0.363321 (1gX) -0.057296 (1gX)2-0.010759(1gX)3。
7. the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 6, it is characterised in that：It is described
Process dangerous carries out assignment according to technological reaction heat release and heat absorption in 8th step.
8. the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 7, it is characterised in that：It is described
In 9th step in special process danger P2=operation temperature P21+ operating pressure P22+ combustible ranges and close to combustible range
Operate P23+ joints and gasket leakage P24+ corrosion and the use P26+ rotating machinerys P27 of abrasion P25+ naked light equipment.
9. the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 8, it is characterised in that：It is described
The undesirable L1+ firebreaks of safe distance danger L=1+ safe escapes do not meet code requirement L2 in 11st step, its
In, safe escape is undesirable to take 0.05；Firebreak does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15.
10. the process dangerous serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 9, it is characterised in that：It is described
Do not conform in 12nd step rule danger N=1+ building fire resistings do not meet code requirement N1+ build pressure release do not meet code requirement
N2, building fire resisting does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15；Building pressure release does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110866676A (en) * | 2019-10-23 | 2020-03-06 | 四川航天川南火工技术有限公司 | Quantitative evaluation method for safety of initiating explosive device system |
| CN113283070A (en) * | 2021-05-20 | 2021-08-20 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Intelligent diagnosis method and system for intrinsic safety of technological process |
| CN113344363A (en) * | 2021-05-31 | 2021-09-03 | 中南财经政法大学 | Method for identifying and evaluating major safety risks of firework and firecracker enterprises |
-
2017
- 2017-03-07 CN CN201710130827.8A patent/CN107016488A/en active Pending
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110866676A (en) * | 2019-10-23 | 2020-03-06 | 四川航天川南火工技术有限公司 | Quantitative evaluation method for safety of initiating explosive device system |
| CN110866676B (en) * | 2019-10-23 | 2024-01-05 | 四川航天川南火工技术有限公司 | Quantitative evaluation method for safety of initiating explosive device system |
| CN113283070A (en) * | 2021-05-20 | 2021-08-20 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Intelligent diagnosis method and system for intrinsic safety of technological process |
| CN113283070B (en) * | 2021-05-20 | 2021-12-17 | 中国安全生产科学研究院 | Intelligent diagnosis method and system for intrinsic safety of technological process |
| CN113344363A (en) * | 2021-05-31 | 2021-09-03 | 中南财经政法大学 | Method for identifying and evaluating major safety risks of firework and firecracker enterprises |
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