CN106875126A - A kind of physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, gone forward side by side one-step optimization index valued curve with reference to expertise and S type curves, the method will more accurately characterize chemical industry process dangerous characteristic, more effectively instruct enterprise to carry out classification management and control.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to petrochemical industry safety production technique field, and in particular to a kind of physical hazard serialization is inherently endangered
Dangerous degree appraisal procedure.
Background technology
Petrochemical industry is mainstay of the national economy industry, and as China's economy tells development, process of industrialization is deepened constantly,
Chemical production device maximization, complication cause that the possibility that severe and great casualty occurs is also increasing, and the consequence for causing is tighter
Weight.The especially big blast accident of the petrochina Jilin Shuan Ben factories of on November 13rd, 2005 causes 8 people dead, and people more than 10,000 is evacuated, while making
Into what external river severe contamination of downstream；The organic workshop hair in the Guangxi on the 26th of August in 2008 Yizhou Guang Wei chemical inc
Raw explosion accident, causes 20 people dead, and direct economy is up to more than 7,500 ten thousand yuan；On November 19th, 2011 combines chemical industry wholly-owned subsidiary
There is significant explosion accident in Shandong Xintai City connectionization, cause 14 people dead.Therefore people are to the requirement more and more higher of chemical industry safety,
It is more and more transparent clear.
Stress accident prevention and contingency management compared to traditional chemical industry P-FMEA, essential safety is hidden in elimination risk
Trouble is more and more paid attention to.Many index type evaluation methods, such as PIIS, ISI, i-safe and SHE are developed for this
Method etc..On this basis, Li Qiujin et al. is entered using the Shepand interpolation algorithms team essential safety based on genetic algorithm
Row assessment, Syaza I.Ahmad et al. are estimated using S types curve to the danger of material, to overcome evaluation index to dash forward
So the occurrence of jump, more accurate reactive material is dangerous.
However, in existing research, because Index grading is less interpolation method error is larger, it is impossible to which reactive material is endangered originally
Dangerous trend, though S type curves overcome above-mentioned difficulties, lacks the amendment of expertise.
Further to solve, existing appraisal procedure fails effective integration expertise and reactive material is continuously dangerous, this Shen
A kind of physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure please be propose, the method will more accurately characterize chemical industry process dangerous
Characteristic, more effectively instructs enterprise to carry out classification management and control.
The content of the invention
For overcome existing appraisal procedure cannot effective integration expertise and reactive material it is continuously dangerous, the present invention provide
A kind of physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, it is special that the method can more accurately characterize chemical industry process dangerous
Property, effectively instruct enterprise to be classified management and control.
The present invention provides a kind of physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, and it combines expertise and S types
Curve is gone forward side by side one-step optimization index valued curve, obtains risk assessment.
The method is specifically included：
The first step, chooses enterprise；
Second step, chooses technique unit；
3rd step, substance for calculation flash-point danger F；
4th step, substance for calculation explosion limit danger E；
5th step, substance for calculation toxicity risk T；
6th step, the amount danger I of substance for calculation；
7th step, substance for calculation coefficient M：M=F+E+T；
8th step, calculates general technology danger P1；
9th step, calculates special process danger P2；
Tenth step, computing unit process dangerous P：P=(P1+1) (P2+1)；
11st step, calculates safe distance danger L；
12nd step, calculating does not conform to rule danger N；
13rd step, calculates surrounding enviroment danger S；
14th step, calculates technique natural hazard risk D：D=P × M × (1+I) × (1+T) × L × N × S.
Wherein, the specific calculating process of flash-point danger F is as follows in the 3rd step：
A is walked, and brings expertise into equation (1) respectively to the separation of the discrete fractional constraint condition of flash-point, to obtaining
Multiple solving simultaneous equation A, B value；
Danger coefficient yiIt is flash-point xiCorresponding dangerous values, i is separation quantity；A, B are constant coefficients；
B is walked, by with equation (2) as object function, by multigroup A, B value substitution equation (1), and by separation flash-point band
Enter equation (1), choose the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up, so as to the danger of flash-point can be calculated by formula (3) obtain
Wherein, n is numeric type, and value subtracts 2 equal to separation quantity；
yiIt is flash-point xiCorresponding dangerous values,
Wherein, x is flash-point, unit for degree Celsius；
Wherein, the specific calculating process of material explosion limit danger E is as follows in the 4th step：
A, brings expertise into mentioned in the 3rd step equation to the discrete fractional constraint condition separation of explosion limit
(1), a plurality of curve to seeking out；
B is walked, and the equation (2) mentioned by the 3rd step is optimized, and chooses the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up, so that
The danger of explosion limit can be calculated by formula (4) and obtained
Wherein, x is explosion limit, and unit is %；
Wherein, the substance toxicity danger specific calculating process of T is as follows in the 5th step：
A is walked, and brings expertise into equation that the 3rd step is mentioned to the discrete fractional constraint condition separation of substance toxicity
(1), a plurality of curve to seeking out；
B is walked, and the equation (2) mentioned by the 3rd step is optimized, and chooses the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up, so that
The danger of substance toxicity can be calculated by formula (5) and obtained
Wherein, the score value of the amount danger I of substance for calculation, according to material type, is entered by equation below in the 6th step
Row is calculated, and wherein x units are English heat × 109,
(1) one class flammable liquid：
LgY=-0.403115+0.378703 (lgX) -0.46402 (lgX)2-0.015379(1gX)3
(2) two class flammable liquids
LgY=-0.558394+0.363321 (lgX) -0.057296 (lgX)2-0.010759(lgX)3。
Wherein, process dangerous carry out assignment according to technological reaction heat release and heat absorption in the 8th step.
Wherein, special process danger P2 specific formula for calculation is special process danger P2=operations in the 9th step
Corrode in temperature P21+ operating pressure P22+ combustible ranges and close to the operation P23+ joints and gasket leakage P24+ of combustible range
With the use P26+ rotating machinerys P27 of abrasion P25+ naked light equipment.
Wherein, the undesirable L1+ firebreaks of safe distance danger L=1+ safe escapes are not in the 11st step
Meet code requirement L2.
Wherein, do not conform in the 12nd step rule danger N=1+ building fire resistings do not meet code requirement N1+ build let out
Pressure does not meet code requirement N2.
Wherein, surrounding enviroment are dangerous in the 13rd step carries out value according to the periphery density of population.
Beneficial technique effect
Compared to fuzzy evaluation, Shepand interpolation and S type curves, the physical hazard serialization that the application is provided is intrinsic
Risk assessment method combination expertise and S type curves are gone forward side by side one-step optimization index valued curve, and the method will more accurately
Chemical industry process dangerous characteristic is characterized, more effectively instructs enterprise to carry out classification management and control.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure flow charts.
Specific embodiment
The present invention provides a kind of physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, and it includes：
The first step, chooses enterprise, because method is applied to chemical enterprise, therefore the suitable enterprise of selection carries out assessment of risks
Avoid the waste of human and material resources；
Second step, chooses technique unit, and the natural hazard risk appraisal procedure that the present invention is provided is applied to chemical process device,
To tank field, warehouse and do not apply to；
3rd step, substance for calculation flash-point danger F；
4th step, substance for calculation explosion limit danger E；
5th step, substance for calculation toxicity risk T；
6th step, the amount danger I of substance for calculation；
7th step, substance for calculation coefficient M：M=F+E+T；
8th step, calculates general technology danger P1；
9th step, calculates special process danger P2；
Tenth step, computing unit process dangerous P：P=(P1+1) (P2+1)；
11st step, calculates safe distance danger L；
12nd step, calculating does not conform to rule danger N；
13rd step, calculates surrounding enviroment danger S；
14th step, calculates technique natural hazard risk D：D=P × M × (1+I) × (1+T) × L × N × S.
The specific calculating process of flash-point danger F is as follows in 3rd step：
A is walked, and brings expertise into equation (1) respectively to the separation of the discrete fractional constraint condition of flash-point, to obtaining
Multiple solving simultaneous equation A, B value；
Wherein, yiIt is flash-point xiCorresponding dangerous values；A, B are constant coefficients；
The flash-point constraints of table 1
| Flash-point/DEG C | Score value |
| ＜ 0 | 4 |
| [0-21) | 3 |
| [21-55) | 2 |
| ＞=55 | 1 |
B is walked, by with equation (2) as object function, by multigroup A, B value substitution equation (1), and by separation flash-point band
Enter equation (1), choose the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up, so as to the danger of flash-point can be calculated by formula (3) obtain
Wherein, n is numeric type, and value subtracts 2 equal to separation quantity；
Wherein, yiIt is flash-point xiCorresponding dangerous values,
Wherein, x is flash-point, unit for degree Celsius；
The specific calculating process of material explosion limit danger E is as follows in 4th step：
A is walked, and expertise is brought into the 3rd step and mentioned to the discrete fractional constraint condition separation of explosion limit such as table 2
Equation (1), to obtain multiple solving simultaneous equation A, B value；
The explosion limit constraints of table 2
| UEL-LEL/percentage by volume | Score value |
| (70,100] | 4 |
| (45-70] | 3 |
| (20,45] | 2 |
| (0,20] | 1 |
B is walked, and as object function, multigroup A, B value is substituted into equation (1) by with equation (2), is chosen and is caused equation (2)
The curve of establishment, so as to the danger of explosion limit can be calculated by formula (4) obtain
Wherein, x is explosion limit, and unit is %；
The substance toxicity danger specific calculating process of T is as follows in 5th step：
A is walked, and expertise is shown in Table into 3 to substance toxicity discrete fractional constraint condition separation and brings what the 3rd step was mentioned into
Equation (1), the value of multiple solving simultaneous equation A, B to obtaining；
The flash-point constraints of table 3
| Flash-point/DEG C | Score value |
| ＜ 100 | 4 |
| [100-500) | 3 |
| [500,2500) | 2 |
| [2500,20000) | 1 |
| ＞=20000 | 0 |
B is walked, and the equation (2) mentioned by the 3rd step is optimized, and chooses the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up, so that
The danger of substance toxicity can be calculated by formula (5) and obtained
The score value of the amount danger I of substance for calculation is counted according to material type by equation below in 6th step
Calculate, wherein x units are English heat × 109,
(1) one class flammable liquid：
LgY=-0.403115+0.378703 (1gX) -0.46402 (1gX)2-0.015379(1gX)3
(2) two class flammable liquids
LgY=-0.558394+0.363321 (lgX) -0.057296 (lgX)2-0.010759(lgX)3。
Process dangerous carry out assignment according to technological reaction heat release and heat absorption in 8th step, specific as shown in table 4.
The process dangerous assignment of table 4
Special process danger P2 specific formula for calculation is special process danger P2=operation temperatures in 9th step
The corrosion of operation P23+ joints and gasket leakage P24+ and mill in P21+ operating pressure P22+ combustible ranges and close to combustible range
The use P26+ rotating machinery P27 of P25+ naked light equipment are lost,
Operation temperature P21：1) using the process unit of carbon steel structure, when operation temperature is equal to or less than transition temperature, it is
Number takes 0.30；2) device is the other materials beyond carbon steel, and when operation temperature is equal to or less than transition temperature, coefficient takes 0.20.
Operating pressure P22
Following equations are applied to the determination of danger coefficient Y when pressure is 0~6895kPa (gauge pressure).The unit of X values for " pound/
Inch2”。
Y=0.16109+1.61503 (X/1000) -1.42879 (X/1000) 2+0.5172 (X/1000)3
In combustible range and close to the operation P23 of combustible range
1) when opening vent valve or being provided without inert gas shielding in negative-pressure operation, coefficient is 0.50.
2) only when instrument or device failure, just in combustion range or near it, coefficient is 0.30 to process equipment.
3) because inert gas purge system is impracticable or does not take inert gas purge, operation is made to be always at burning
In the range of or its near when, coefficient is 0.80.
Joint and gasket leakage P24
1) there may be during minor leakage at pump and gland sealing, coefficient is 0.10.
2) when pump, compressor and flange connections produce normal general leakage, coefficient is 0.30.
3) occasion of heat and pressure cycle change is born, coefficient is 0.30.
If 4) material of technique unit is the slurries for having permeability or abrasion, seal failure may be caused, or
When technique unit is using axle envelope or stuffing-box is rotated, coefficient is 0.40.
5) when having glass visor, bellows or expansion joint in unit, coefficient is 1.50.
Corrosion and abrasion P25
1) corrosion rate (including spot corrosion and local corrosion) is less than 0.127mm/a, and coefficient is 0.10；
2) corrosion rate is more than 0.127mm/a, and less than 0.254mm/a, coefficient is 0.20；
3) corrosion rate is more than 0.254mm/a, and coefficient is 0.50；
If 4) stress corrosion cracking (SCC) has the danger of expansion, coefficient is 0.75；
5) during corrosion protective lining, coefficient is 0.20.
The use P26 of naked light equipment
A. any technique unit that the material of material coefficient may be leaked more than its flash-point is determined；Curve A-1：
Rotating machinery P27
In evaluation unit using or evaluation unit be in itself equipment rotated below, coefficient 0.5 can be chosen：More than 600 horses
The compressor of power (1 horsepower=735.5W), the pump more than 75 horsepowers, because mixing is uneven, cooling is not enough or terminates after breaking down
Cause the elevated agitator of reaction temperature and circulating pump etc. reason；Once there is the large high-speed rotating machinery of accident in other, such as
Centrifuge etc..
The safe distance danger undesirable L1+ firebreaks of L=1+ safe escapes do not meet in 11st step
Code requirement L2, wherein, safe escape is undesirable to take 0.05；Firebreak does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15.
Do not conform to rule danger N=1+ building fire resistings in 12nd step and do not meet the pressure release of code requirement N1+ buildings not
Meet code requirement N2, wherein, building fire resisting does not meet code requirement and takes 0.15；Building pressure release does not meet code requirement and takes
0.15。
Surrounding enviroment are dangerous in 13rd step carries out value according to the periphery density of population, and principle is according to such as institute of table 5
Show value.
The surrounding enviroment of table 5 danger assignment
| Sequence is special | The density of population | Assignment |
| 1 | Unconventional situation | 3 |
| 2 | Skyscraper | 2.5 |
| 3 | Commercial land | 2.5 |
| 4 | High density settling pond residential block | 2 |
| 5 | Low-density city neighborhood | 1.7 |
| 6 | Industrial land | 1.3 |
| 7 | Intensive rural area | 1.3 |
| 8 | Sparse rural area | 1 |
| 9 | Remote isolation area | 0.5 |
Describe embodiments of the present invention in detail using embodiment and accompanying drawing below, how skill is applied to the present invention whereby
Art means solve technical problem, and reach the implementation process of technique effect and can fully understand and implement according to this.
The physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure that the present invention is provided is to more accurately characterize chemical industry
Process dangerous characteristic, based on S type curves, using expertise, and is optimized and revised, and is realized to process unit natrual danger
Assessment, according to the content described in the embodiment above and accompanying drawing 1, specific implementation case is as follows：
S1：Choose enterprise：By taking certain petroleum chemical enterprise as an example.
S2：Choose technique unit：Alkene portion polypropylene plant uses " Spheripol " technology of Basell companies.
S3：Substance for calculation flash-point danger F：- 108 DEG C of propylene flash-point, F values 3.9.
S4：Substance for calculation explosion limit danger E：Blast bound 2.4%-10.3%, therefore E values 0.7.
S5：Substance for calculation toxicity risk T：LC50：65800mg/m3, therefore T=0.
S6：The amount danger I of substance for calculation：It is about 6.0t, the fuel value HC=of propylene in the reactor inner propene of 35m3
19.7 (British thermal units/pound), therefore I takes 0.38.
S7：Substance for calculation coefficient M：M=4.6.
S8：Calculate general technology danger P1：Because polymerisation is that then P1 takes 0.50 to exothermic medium.
S9：Calculate special process danger P2：
1) 70 DEG C of reaction temperature, therefore P21=0；
2) reaction pressure is 3.4MPa therefore P22=0.87；
3) unit not its explosion limit and its near operate, therefore P23 takes 0；
4) material of technique unit is that have permeability or corrosive slurries, then may cause seal failure, therefore P24 takes
0.4；
5) corrosion rate ＜ 0.127mm/a, therefore P25 takes 0.10；
6) the unit flames of anger is used, therefore P26 does not take；
7) coolant circulation pump failure causes temperature to rise, therefore P27 takes 0.5；
Therefore, special process danger P2=1.87.
S10：Computing unit process dangerous P：P=4.3.
S11：Calculate safe distance danger L：Because safe distance all meets the requirements, therefore L=1.
S12：Calculating does not conform to rule danger N：Because do not conform to rule problem, therefore N=1.
S13：Calculate surrounding enviroment danger S：Because the intensive rural area in periphery, S=1.3.
S14：Calculate technique natural hazard risk D：
D=P × M × (1+I) (1+T) × L × N × S=35.5
All above-mentioned this intellectual properties of primarily implementation, the not this new product of implementation of setting limitation other forms
And/or new method.Those skilled in the art will be using this important information, the above modification, to realize similar execution feelings
Condition.But, all modifications or transformation are based on the right that new product of the present invention belongs to reservation.
The above, is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not the limitation for making other forms to the present invention, is appointed
What those skilled in the art changed possibly also with the technology contents of the disclosure above or be modified as equivalent variations etc.
Effect embodiment.But it is every without departing from technical solution of the present invention content, according to technical spirit of the invention to above example institute
Any simple modification, equivalent variations and the remodeling made, still fall within the protection domain of technical solution of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure, it is characterised in that：With reference to expertise and S type curves
Go forward side by side one-step optimization index valued curve, obtain risk assessment.
2. physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that：
The first step, chooses enterprise；
Second step, chooses technique unit；
3rd step, substance for calculation flash-point danger F；
4th step, substance for calculation explosion limit danger E；
5th step, substance for calculation toxicity risk T；
6th step, the amount danger I of substance for calculation；
7th step, substance for calculation coefficient M：M=F+E+T；
8th step, calculates general technology danger P1；
9th step, calculates special process danger P2；
Tenth step, computing unit process dangerous P：P=(P1+1) (P2+1)；
11st step, calculates safe distance danger L；
12nd step, calculating does not conform to rule danger N；
13rd step, calculates surrounding enviroment danger S；
14th step, calculates technique natural hazard risk D：D=P × M × (1+I) × (1+T) × L × N × S.
3. physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that：It is described
The specific calculating process of flash-point danger F is as follows in 3rd step：
A is walked, and expertise is brought into equation (1) to the discrete fractional constraint condition separation of flash-point, to a plurality of song for seeking out
Line；
yiIt is flash-point xiCorresponding dangerous values；A, B are constant coefficients；
B is walked, and is optimized by equation (2), chooses the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up, so that the danger of flash-point can be with
Calculated by formula (3) and obtained
Wherein, n is numeric type, and value subtracts 2 equal to separation quantity；
yiIt is flash-point xiCorresponding dangerous values,
Wherein, x is flash-point, unit for degree Celsius.
4. the physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claims 1 to 3, it is characterised in that：It is described
The specific calculating process of material explosion limit danger E is as follows in 4th step：
A is walked, and brings expertise into mentioned in the 3rd step equation to the discrete fractional constraint condition separation of explosion limit
(1), a plurality of curve to seeking out；
B is walked, and the equation (2) mentioned by the 3rd step is optimized, and the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up is chosen, so as to explode
The danger of the limit can be calculated by formula (4) and obtained
Wherein, x is explosion limit, and unit is %.
5. the physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in Claims 1-4, it is characterised in that：It is described
The substance toxicity danger specific calculating process of T is as follows in 5th step,
A is walked, and brings expertise into equation (1) that the 3rd step is mentioned to the discrete fractional constraint condition separation of substance toxicity,
To a plurality of curve for seeking out；
B is walked, and the equation (2) mentioned by the 3rd step is optimized, and the curve for causing that equation (2) is set up is chosen, so that material
The danger of toxicity can be calculated by formula (5) and obtained
6. the physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 5, it is characterised in that：It is described
The score value of the amount danger I of substance for calculation is calculated, wherein X unit according to material type by equation below in 6th step
It is English heat × 109,
(1) one class flammable liquid：
LgY=-0.403115+0.378703 (1gX) -0.46402 (lgX)2-0.015379(lgX)3
(2) two class flammable liquids
LgY=-0.558394+0.363321 (lgX) -0.057296 (lgX)2-0.010759(lgX)3。
7. the physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 6, it is characterised in that：It is described
Process dangerous carry out assignment according to technological reaction heat release and heat absorption in 8th step.
8. the physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 7, it is characterised in that：It is described
Special process danger P2 specific formula for calculation is special process danger P2=operation temperature P21+ operating pressures in 9th step
Set with P25+ naked lights are denuded in P22+ combustible ranges and close to operation P23+ joints and gasket leakage the P24+ corrosion of combustible range
Standby use P26+ rotating machinerys P27.
9. the physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 8, it is characterised in that：It is described
The safe distance danger undesirable L1+ firebreaks of L=1+ safe escapes do not meet code requirement L2 in 11st step.
10. the physical hazard serialization natural hazard risk appraisal procedure as described in claim 1 to 9, it is characterised in that：It is described
Do not conform in 12nd step rule danger N=1+ building fire resistings do not meet code requirement N1+ build pressure release do not meet code requirement
N2。
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO2021026810A1 (en) * | 2019-08-13 | 2021-02-18 | 南京工业大学 | Method for assessing risk of thermal runaway in chemical process |
| CN115240384A (en) * | 2021-04-23 | 2022-10-25 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Chemical device danger early warning method, early warning device and early warning system |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WO2021026810A1 (en) * | 2019-08-13 | 2021-02-18 | 南京工业大学 | Method for assessing risk of thermal runaway in chemical process |
| CN115240384A (en) * | 2021-04-23 | 2022-10-25 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Chemical device danger early warning method, early warning device and early warning system |
| CN115240384B (en) * | 2021-04-23 | 2023-08-25 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Dangerous early warning method, early warning device and early warning system for chemical device |
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