CN106779232A - A kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging - Google Patents
A kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging draws the possibility that urban waterlogging occurs by the method for modeling, it is because the water of going of natural situation is less than precipitation according to urban waterlogging, by the way of figure-shape combination, city is calculated respectively goes water and urban precipitation amount, go water and urban precipitation amount to be converted into city in city using software and remove water design sketch and urban precipitation design sketch, superposition again obtains city ponding design sketch, this processing mode has subtracted a large amount of cumbersome data processings, Urban Landform obtains newest city flow pattern in time in considering actual conditions simultaneously, refer to value big, the generation of look-ahead urban waterlogging is realized by analyzing city ponding design sketch.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to urban waterlogging modeling field, the modeling and forecasting method of specially a kind of urban waterlogging.
Background technology
In recent years, many cities of China frequently meet with heavy rain attack, trigger serious urban waterlogging, occur " meet rain flooded,
The phenomenon of the flooded then paralysis of chance ", taking place frequently for urban waterlogging can not only cause traffic paralysis, can also trigger city water power, communication, underground
Cable fault, causes market, warehouse, factory building and people's property to be flooded, or even personal injury, triggers civil order chaotic alarmed；
The factor of wherein influence urban waterlogging has：Vegetation coverage, physical features height and rainfall number, it is generally the case that vegetation is covered
Lid rate is lower, and physical features is lower, and rainfall is more, then the possibility that urban waterlogging occurs is bigger.
But urban waterlogging all the time prevent by neither one good method, can only after it there is urban waterlogging, simply by plus
Big pumping station, drainage car using municipal drainage speed is accelerated, urban waterlogging taken without the sufficient time reasonably solve
Certainly method, this greatly consumes man power and material.
The content of the invention
1. the technical problem to be solved
For the problem that can not prevent in time before urban waterlogging generation present in prior art, it is an object of the invention to carry
For a kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging, the generation of look-ahead urban waterlogging is realized.
2. technical scheme
To solve the above problems, the present invention is adopted the following technical scheme that.
A kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging, comprises the following steps：
（1）Model is built, by city water cycle system, using white-box testing method, urban waterlogging model is set up, model is as follows：
M=H-Q；
Wherein：M is city water accumulating volume, refers to the difference that water is gone in urban precipitation amount and city；
H is the urban precipitation amount in somewhere in the unit time；
Q goes water for city, refers to the water that vegetation soil absorbs water and sewerage pipeline network and earth's surface flow；
（2）Determine waterlogging time of origin section, peak period of the inquiry city per annual precipitation, in the peak period inner city of urban precipitation amount
There is the maximum probability of waterlogging in city；
（3）Determine urban waterlogging grade, urban waterlogging be set to gentle breeze danger, low-risk, four grades of risk and excessive risk,
Each grade determines the scope of city depth of accumulated water；
（4）The calculating of urban precipitation amount, every average daily precipitation during by counting city per annual precipitation peak period draws city
The city precipitation frequency, frequency and grade classification table；
（5）The figure of urban precipitation amount is represented, using urban precipitation amount concrete numerical value as the numerical value in picture processing, after treatment
Picture superposition obtains urban precipitation design sketch；
（6）The calculating of water is gone in city, obtains city hypsometric map and urban vegetation coverage diagram, and carries out gray proces to picture,
City hypsometric map and urban vegetation coverage diagram after gray proces must remove water design sketch after being overlapped fitting to city, by city
City's dewatering effect figure goes water design sketch to be superimposed and obtains city ponding design sketch with city；
（7）Determine urban waterlogging grade, determine the gray value that a urban waterlogging occurs, one by one in contrast city ponding design sketch
The gray value of different places is the waterlogging Occurrence forecast value that can obtain city different places, by waterlogging Occurrence forecast value to Yingcheng City
City's waterlogging grade obtains urban waterlogging grade；The possibility that urban waterlogging occurs is drawn by the method for modeling, according in city
Flood is to go water less than precipitation due to natural situation, by the way of figure-shape combination, city is calculated respectively and goes to water and city
City's precipitation, goes water and urban precipitation amount to be converted into city in city and goes water design sketch and urban precipitation effect using software
Figure, again superposition obtains city ponding design sketch, and this processing mode has subtracted a large amount of cumbersome data processings, while considering
Urban Landform obtains newest city flow pattern in time in actual conditions, value is referred to greatly, by analyzing city ponding effect
Figure realizes the generation of look-ahead urban waterlogging.
Preferably, described step（6）Middle city go water include urban vegetation coverage rate, drainage pipeline networks and surface flow
Amount, described urban vegetation coverage rate, drainage pipeline networks and earth's surface flow correspond to urban vegetation coverage diagram, nothing, city physical features respectively
Figure, gray proces are carried out by urban vegetation coverage diagram and city hypsometric map respectively, and the different gray-scale maps for obtaining are overlapped, and obtain
Water design sketch is removed in city；With reference to the use of modern mapping software, urban vegetation coverage diagram and city hypsometric map are carried out at gray scale
The different gray-scale maps that reason is obtained, are overlapped and obtain water summation design sketch, can simple knowledge city difference by picture
The bigger i.e. more black place of gray scale superposition represents that the few physical features of vegetation is low in local flow pattern, wherein picture, then ponding probability is got over
Greatly, the smaller i.e. whiter place of gray scale superposition represents many high-lands of vegetation, then the probability of ponding is smaller.
Preferably, described step（2）By inquiring about a certain area each monthly total precipitation of nearest 40 years, monthly average is asked for
Precipitation, it maximum three months is precipitation peak period to choose monthly mean rainfall, in this way can be near with scientific statistics
Urban precipitation situation over year, makes data closer to future actual numerical value.
Preferably, described step（4）It is every during by inquiring about a certain area nearest 40 years per annual precipitation peak period
Intra day ward, asks for the average daily precipitation of precipitation peak period, draws the urban precipitation amount frequency, frequency and grade classification
Table, light rain, moderate rain, four rain estimations of heavy rain and heavy rain are divided into by different average daily precipitations, count different precipitation
The corresponding precipitation of grade, precipitation frequencies and rain frequency, by Frequency Estimation probability look-ahead urban precipitation amount, by cumbersome
Rigorous data statistics makes data more accurate.
Preferably, described light rain, moderate rain, four rain estimation four different pictures of correspondence of heavy rain and heavy rain, with difference
The different gray values of precipitation correspondence, the value of the frequency correspondence transparency of different precipitation amount, four described different pictures are superimposed
To urban precipitation design sketch, substantial amounts of data processing is reduced, it is clear intuitively to show that city various regions are together to receive in prediction
Identical precipitation situation, it is thus understood that ponding situation in various regions after urban precipitation.
3. beneficial effect
Compared to prior art, the advantage of the invention is that：
（1）A kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging draws the possibility that urban waterlogging occurs by the method for modeling, according to
Urban waterlogging is to go water less than precipitation due to natural situation, by the way of figure-shape combination, city is calculated respectively and removes water
Amount and urban precipitation amount, go water and urban precipitation amount to be converted into city in city and remove water design sketch and urban precipitation using software
Design sketch, again superposition obtains city ponding design sketch, and this processing mode has subtracted a large amount of cumbersome data processings, while examining
Urban Landform obtains newest city flow pattern in time in considering actual conditions, value is referred to greatly, by analyzing city ponding
Design sketch realizes the generation of look-ahead urban waterlogging.
（2）The use of modern mapping software is combined in the present invention, urban vegetation coverage diagram and city hypsometric map are carried out into ash
The different gray-scale maps that degree treatment is obtained, are overlapped and obtain water summation design sketch, can simple knowledge city by picture
The bigger i.e. more black place of gray scale superposition represents that the few physical features of vegetation is low in different places flow pattern, wherein picture, then ponding is general
Rate is bigger, and the smaller i.e. whiter place of gray scale superposition represents many high-lands of vegetation, then the probability of ponding is smaller.
（3）Determine in the present invention urban precipitation amount peak period be by collecting each monthly total precipitation data of nearest 40 years,
Most three months of precipitation is chosen, with scientific statistics urban precipitation situation in recent years data can be made more to connect in this way
Nearly future actual numerical value.
（4）Mean daily precipitation when in the present invention according to the precipitation peak period of nearest 40 years, draws form, by frequency
Estimated probability look-ahead urban precipitation amount, makes data more accurate by cumbersome rigorous data statistics.
（5）It is urban precipitation design sketch that urban precipitation amount is passed through into picture processing in the present invention, reduces substantial amounts of data
Treatment, it is clear intuitively to show that city various regions are together to receive identical precipitation situation in prediction, it is thus understood that each after urban precipitation
Area regimen condition.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation is described, it is clear that described embodiment is only a part of embodiment of the invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is every other that those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained under the premise of creative work is not made
Embodiment, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
Embodiment：
Fig. 1 is referred to, a kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging is comprised the following steps：
A kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging, comprises the following steps：
（1）Model is built, by city water cycle system, using white-box testing method, urban waterlogging model is set up, model is as follows：
M=H-Q；
Wherein：M is city water accumulating volume, refers to the difference that water is gone in urban precipitation amount and city；
H is the urban precipitation amount in somewhere in the unit time；
Q goes water for city, refers to the water that vegetation soil absorbs water and sewerage pipeline network and earth's surface flow；
（2）Determine waterlogging time of origin section, peak period of the inquiry city per annual precipitation, in the peak period inner city of urban precipitation amount
There is the maximum probability of waterlogging in city, by inquiring about Hefei each monthly total precipitation of nearest 40 years, ask for monthly mean rainfall, choose
Monthly mean rainfall maximum three months is precipitation peak period, in this way can be with scientific statistics urban precipitation in recent years
Situation, makes data closer to future actual numerical value；
（3）Determine urban waterlogging grade, urban waterlogging be set to gentle breeze danger, low-risk, four grades of risk and excessive risk,
Each grade determines the scope of city depth of accumulated water；
（4）The calculating of urban precipitation amount, every average daily precipitation during by counting city per annual precipitation peak period draws city
The city precipitation frequency, frequency and grade classification table, it is every during by inquiring about Hefei nearest 40 years per annual precipitation peak period
Intra day ward, asks for the average daily precipitation of precipitation peak period, draws the urban precipitation amount frequency, frequency and grade classification
Table, light rain, moderate rain, four rain estimations of heavy rain and heavy rain are divided into by different average daily precipitations, count different precipitation
The corresponding precipitation of grade, precipitation frequencies and rain frequency, by Frequency Estimation probability look-ahead urban precipitation amount, by cumbersome
Rigorous data statistics makes data more accurate；
（5）The figure of urban precipitation amount is represented, using urban precipitation amount concrete numerical value as the numerical value in picture processing, after treatment
Picture superposition obtains urban precipitation design sketch；Light rain, moderate rain, four rain estimation four different pictures of correspondence of heavy rain and heavy rain,
With the different gray values of different precipitation amount correspondence, the value of the frequency correspondence transparency of different precipitation amount, the choosing in Photoshop softwares
The probability that four pictures that GTG is 62,92,102,222 represent rainfall is taken, four different picture superpositions obtain urban precipitation effect
Fruit is schemed, and reduces substantial amounts of data processing, clear intuitively to show that city various regions are together to receive identical precipitation feelings in prediction
Shape, it is thus understood that ponding situation in various regions after urban precipitation；
（6）The calculating of water is gone in city, obtains city hypsometric map and urban vegetation coverage diagram, and carries out gray proces to picture,
City hypsometric map and urban vegetation coverage diagram after gray proces must remove water design sketch after being overlapped fitting to city, process
Picture superposition afterwards obtains urban precipitation design sketch, goes water design sketch to be superimposed in urban precipitation design sketch and city and obtains city product
Water design sketch；City go water include urban vegetation coverage rate, drainage pipeline networks and earth's surface flow, urban vegetation coverage rate, draining
Pipe network and earth's surface flow correspond to urban vegetation coverage diagram, nothing, city hypsometric map respectively, by urban vegetation coverage diagram and city physical features
Figure carries out gray proces respectively, and the different gray-scale maps for obtaining are overlapped, and obtain to city and remove water design sketch；From Google Earth
With Hefei City's vegetative coverage figure and Hefei City's hypsometric map have been intercepted on happy figure software, by this two width picture import Photoshop it is soft
Part carries out gray proces, and the complete image of a width is made up of red, green, blue three passages, red, green, blue
Figure is look in the contracting of three passages to be shown with gray scale, and " red, green, blue " ratio in the picture is represented with different gray scales
Weight, it is maximum brightness that pure white in passage represents the coloured light herein, and gray scale is 255, obtain Hefei vegetative coverage and
, be overlapped for this two width picture after treatment by the gray proces figure of physical features；During fitting is superimposed, first by gray proces mistake
Hypsometric map afterwards is adjusted 100%, then the vegetative coverage image of gray proces is brought to Front as Background From Layer, transparency, adjusts
Section transparency is manually adjusted to can simultaneously see two figure layer contents, and coincidence coordinate adjusts neat alignment, adjusts transparency before merging
It is to 50% and the filling control of two figures is identical；By picture can simple knowledge city different places flow pattern, wherein
The bigger i.e. more black place of gray scale superposition represents that the few physical features of vegetation is low in picture, then ponding probability is bigger, and gray scale superposition is smaller i.e.
Whiter place represents many high-lands of vegetation, then the probability of ponding is smaller；
（7）Determine urban waterlogging grade, determine the gray value that a urban waterlogging occurs, one by one in contrast city ponding design sketch
The gray value of different places is the waterlogging Occurrence forecast value that can obtain city different places, by waterlogging Occurrence forecast value to Yingcheng City
City's waterlogging grade obtains urban waterlogging grade；The possibility that urban waterlogging occurs is drawn by the method for modeling, according in city
Flood is to go water less than precipitation due to natural situation, by the way of figure-shape combination, city is calculated respectively and goes to water and city
City's precipitation, goes water and urban precipitation amount to be converted into city in city and goes water design sketch and urban precipitation effect using software
Figure, again superposition obtains city ponding design sketch, and this processing mode has subtracted a large amount of cumbersome data processings, while considering
Urban Landform obtains newest city flow pattern in time in actual conditions, value is referred to greatly, by analyzing city ponding effect
Figure realizes the generation of look-ahead urban waterlogging.
Wherein, in actual applications, note：
（1）When city water accumulating volume is calculated, other waters such as sanitary sewage, evaporation capacity are not considered；
（2）Upland water can cause significant impact to the pipe network drainage system and earth's surface flow in a city, so as to cause city
Water accumulating volume deviation, because Hefei City is not belonging to the Changjiang river nearby urban, therefore does not consider upland water；
（3）The present invention does not consider to sacrifice regional area, saves the administrative measure of developed area from damage；
（4）By 24 hours, continuous rainfall was defined daily rainfall of the invention.
The above, the only present invention preferably specific embodiment, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto,
Any one skilled in the art the invention discloses technical scope in, technology according to the present invention scheme and its
Improve design and be subject to equivalent or change, should all cover within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of modeling and forecasting method of urban waterlogging, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
（1）Model is built, by city water cycle system, using white-box testing method, urban waterlogging model is set up, model is as follows：
M=H-Q；
Wherein：M is city water accumulating volume, refers to the difference that water is gone in urban precipitation amount and city；
H is the urban precipitation amount in somewhere in the unit time；
Q goes water for city, refers to the water that vegetation soil absorbs water and sewerage pipeline network and earth's surface flow；
（2）Determine waterlogging time of origin section, peak period of the inquiry city per annual precipitation, in the peak period inner city of urban precipitation amount
There is the maximum probability of waterlogging in city；
（3）Determine urban waterlogging grade, urban waterlogging be set to gentle breeze danger, low-risk, four grades of risk and excessive risk,
Each grade determines the scope of city depth of accumulated water；
（4）The calculating of urban precipitation amount, every average daily precipitation during by counting city per annual precipitation peak period draws city
The city precipitation frequency, frequency and grade classification table；
（5）The figure of urban precipitation amount is represented, using urban precipitation amount concrete numerical value as the numerical value in picture processing, after treatment
Picture superposition obtains urban precipitation design sketch；
（6）The calculating of water is gone in city, obtains city hypsometric map and urban vegetation coverage diagram, and carries out gray proces to picture,
City hypsometric map and urban vegetation coverage diagram after gray proces must remove water design sketch after being overlapped fitting to city, by city
City's dewatering effect figure goes water design sketch to be superimposed and obtains city ponding design sketch with city；
（7）Determine urban waterlogging grade, determine the gray value that a urban waterlogging occurs, one by one in contrast city ponding design sketch
The gray value of different places is the waterlogging Occurrence forecast value that can obtain city different places, by waterlogging Occurrence forecast value to Yingcheng City
City's waterlogging grade obtains urban waterlogging grade.
2. the modeling and forecasting method of a kind of urban waterlogging according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Described step（6）
Middle city go water include urban vegetation coverage rate, drainage pipeline networks and earth's surface flow, described urban vegetation coverage rate, drainpipe
Net and earth's surface flow correspond to urban vegetation coverage diagram, nothing, city hypsometric map respectively, by urban vegetation coverage diagram and city hypsometric map
Gray proces are carried out respectively, and the different gray-scale maps for obtaining are overlapped, and obtain to city and remove water design sketch.
3. the modeling and forecasting method of a kind of urban waterlogging according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Described step（2）
By inquiring about a certain area each monthly total precipitation of nearest 40 years, monthly mean rainfall is asked for, choose monthly mean rainfall maximum
Three months be precipitation peak period.
4. the modeling and forecasting method of a kind of urban waterlogging according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Described step（4）
Every intra day ward during by inquiring about a certain area nearest 40 years per annual precipitation peak period, asks for the day of precipitation peak period
Average precipitation, draws the urban precipitation amount frequency, frequency and grade classification table, different average daily precipitations is divided into small
Rain, moderate rain, four rain estimations of heavy rain and heavy rain, the different corresponding precipitation of rain estimation of statistics, precipitation frequencies and precipitation
Frequency.
5. the modeling and forecasting method of a kind of urban waterlogging according to claim 4, it is characterised in that：Described light rain, in
Rain, four rain estimation four different pictures of correspondence of heavy rain and heavy rain, with the different gray values of different precipitation amount correspondence, different precipitation
The value of the frequency correspondence transparency of amount, four described different picture superpositions obtain urban precipitation design sketch.
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| CN107832931A (en) * | 2017-10-31 | 2018-03-23 | 上海市政工程设计研究总院（集团）有限公司 | A kind of Modularity analysis method of plain river network region waterlogging risk |
| CN108062631A (en) * | 2017-12-29 | 2018-05-22 | 广东工业大学 | Urban waterlogging methods of risk assessment, device and terminal |
| CN108665167A (en) * | 2018-05-11 | 2018-10-16 | 中国城市规划设计研究院 | Estimate method and device of the sponge urban green space to the abatement amount of precipitation waterlogging |
| CN111368397A (en) * | 2020-02-04 | 2020-07-03 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method and device for predicting waterlogging risk |
| CN111652519A (en) * | 2020-06-06 | 2020-09-11 | 郑州大学 | Urban waterlogging risk assessment method |
| CN113408211A (en) * | 2021-07-12 | 2021-09-17 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban inland inundation water accumulation point water accumulation process prediction method and system based on machine learning |
| CN115293469A (en) * | 2022-10-10 | 2022-11-04 | 山脉科技股份有限公司 | Urban flood control and drainage risk prediction method |
| CN115496299A (en) * | 2022-11-07 | 2022-12-20 | 广东广宇科技发展有限公司 | Urban waterlogging prediction method based on multiple targets |
| CN116611333A (en) * | 2023-05-23 | 2023-08-18 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban flood risk point prediction method |
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Cited By (14)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN107832931B (en) * | 2017-10-31 | 2022-03-29 | 上海市政工程设计研究总院（集团）有限公司 | Modularized analysis method for waterlogging risk in plain water network region |
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| CN108062631A (en) * | 2017-12-29 | 2018-05-22 | 广东工业大学 | Urban waterlogging methods of risk assessment, device and terminal |
| CN108665167B (en) * | 2018-05-11 | 2020-09-25 | 中国城市规划设计研究院 | Method and device for estimating rainfall and waterlogging reduction of sponge urban greenbelt |
| CN108665167A (en) * | 2018-05-11 | 2018-10-16 | 中国城市规划设计研究院 | Estimate method and device of the sponge urban green space to the abatement amount of precipitation waterlogging |
| CN111368397B (en) * | 2020-02-04 | 2021-02-12 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method and device for predicting waterlogging risk |
| CN111368397A (en) * | 2020-02-04 | 2020-07-03 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method and device for predicting waterlogging risk |
| CN111652519A (en) * | 2020-06-06 | 2020-09-11 | 郑州大学 | Urban waterlogging risk assessment method |
| CN113408211A (en) * | 2021-07-12 | 2021-09-17 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban inland inundation water accumulation point water accumulation process prediction method and system based on machine learning |
| CN115293469A (en) * | 2022-10-10 | 2022-11-04 | 山脉科技股份有限公司 | Urban flood control and drainage risk prediction method |
| CN115293469B (en) * | 2022-10-10 | 2022-12-27 | 山脉科技股份有限公司 | Urban flood control and drainage risk prediction method |
| CN115496299A (en) * | 2022-11-07 | 2022-12-20 | 广东广宇科技发展有限公司 | Urban waterlogging prediction method based on multiple targets |
| CN116611333A (en) * | 2023-05-23 | 2023-08-18 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban flood risk point prediction method |
| CN116611333B (en) * | 2023-05-23 | 2023-11-14 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Urban flood risk point prediction method |
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