CN106204339A - A kind of generating reliability appraisal procedure containing tidal current energy generating field power system - Google Patents

Abstract

Mesh of the present invention discloses a kind of generating reliability appraisal procedure containing tidal current energy generating field power system.From the measured data of tide flow velocity, according to relevant informations such as generator 's parameters, in the case of the fully factor such as meter and tide flow velocity fluctuation tide regularity, randomness, wake effect and unit fault.Employing nonparametric probability is theoretical, the randomness of tide simulation flow velocity, it is not necessary to any parameter distribution it is assumed that obtain the generating reliability evaluation index containing tidal current energy generating field power system.

Description

A kind of generating reliability appraisal procedure containing tidal current energy generating field power system

Technical field

The invention belongs to the technical field of Model in Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems, be specifically related to containing tidal current energy generating field power train The generating reliability appraisal procedure of system.

Background technology

It is a kind of important power generation with marine energy form that tidal current can generate electricity, have environmental protection, pollution-free, be not take up soil The advantages such as resource, power density are big, generating noiseless, therefore, have obtained the highest attention of countries in the world.Sending out through many decades Exhibition, the generation technology of tidal current energy reaches its maturity, and lot of experiments or gyp tidal current energy generating field must build and throw Enter to run, and achieve good environmental protection, economic benefit.It is not difficult to visualize, in the electric power generating composition of Future Power System, tide Flow the ingredient that will become important that can generate electricity.

Tidal current can generate electricity the forms of electricity generation as a kind of relative new, after accessing power system, and will necessarily be to power train The many-sides such as the reliability of system make a significant impact, and then every decision-making that meeting profound influence Power System Planning is relevant.Therefore, For the power system containing tidal current energy generating field, need the assessment difficult problem solving its generating reliability badly, and then be power train System planning provides full and accurate, theoretical basis and decision-making foundation accurately.

For the power system containing tidal current energy generating field, when assessing its generating reliability, need to take into full account also Each class feature that tide simulation stream can generate electricity, particularly as follows: 1) fluctuation tide rule: sea water draws at celestial body (the mainly moon and the sun) Present periodic fluctuation campaign under the effect of power from ocean tides, be tidal phenomena.Accordingly, the change of tide flow velocity also shows The periodic regularity more consistent with fluctuation tide.2) randomness: affected by the random factor such as Caulis Piperis Kadsurae, turbulent flow, tide flow velocity is again There is certain stochastic volatility.3) wake effect: in tidal current energy generating field, tidal current after upstream generator group, Tide flow velocity will have certain decline, and then affect the power output of downstream generating set and whole generating field.Here it is it is so-called Wake effect.In reliability assessment, if taking no account of the above-mentioned characteristic that tidal current can generate electricity, will be unable to accurately estimate tidal current The output of energy generating field, and the resultant error being likely to result in reliability assessment is excessive, thus, it is impossible to accurate instruction electric power The analysis that systems organization is relevant, results even in conclusion or the decision-making of mistake.

But, in the generating reliability evaluation areas containing tidal current energy generating field power system, have no relevant report at present, Still belong to blank.

Summary of the invention

It is an object of the invention to the blank for the generating reliability appraisal procedure containing tidal current energy generating field power system, A kind of generating reliability appraisal procedure containing tidal current energy generating field power system is provided, there is rising of accurately meter and tide flow velocity Ebb tide regularity, randomness and the feature of wake effect, and can accurate evaluation sending out containing tidal current energy generating field power system Electricity reliability, thus, the analysis relevant for Power System Planning is provided fundamental basis and decision-making foundation, and has and be generally suitable for Property.

The technical scheme realizing the object of the invention is that a kind of generating reliability containing tidal current energy generating field power system is commented Estimating method, utilize computer, by program, tide flow velocity measured data, tidal current during first inputting flood tide and ebb tide can be sent out The parameter of other types unit in unit layout information in group of motors parameter, tidal current energy generating field, power system, load are real Survey data, the relevant parameter of reliability cycle calculations；It is respectively directed to the tide flow speed data during flood tide and ebb tide again, based on non- Parameter Density Estimator method, sets up the probabilistic model of tide flow velocity, and the random sample of generation tide flow velocity of sampling；Then, Based on being uniformly distributed, sampling produces the running status sample of each tidal current energy generating set；Then, can generate electricity according to tidal current The unit layout information of field, quantifies the impact of wake effect, and calculates the output that tidal current energy generating field is total；Secondly, base In being uniformly distributed, sampling produces the running status sample of other types generating set in power system；Then, divide based on normal state Cloth, sampling produces the random sample of load；Finally, for the power system containing tidal current energy generating field, calculate its generating reliable Property index: expected energy not supplied LOEE.Specifically comprising the following steps that of described method

1) parameter is obtained:

Obtain the tide flow velocity measured data sample v of floodtime_fi, fi=1,2 ..., n_f, n_fFor floodtime tide The measured data sample number of flow velocity；

Tide flow velocity measured data sample v during ebb tide_ei, ei=1,2 ..., n_e, n_eFor tide flow velocity during ebb tide Measured data sample number；

Density of sea water ρ；The incision flow velocity V of tidal current energy generating set_cutin, nominal flow rate V_rated, rated output power P_rated, capacitation coefficient C_p, thrust coefficient C_T, blade diameter D, area A that blade is inswept；

Unit sum N in tidal current energy generating field_g, the degree of unavailability U of each unit_j, j=1,2 ..., N_g, often go Unit number N_h, the unit number N of each column_l, lateral separation L between each unit_hWith fore-and-aft distance L_z, the relative position information G of each unit_j =(g_jx,g_jy), j=1,2 ..., N_g, g_jx=1,2 ..., N_h, g_jy=1,2 ..., N_l, this represents that jth unit is positioned at tide G in stream energy generating field_jxRow g_jyRow；

Rated capacity P of quantity m of other types generating set, each unit in power system_c, degree of unavailability U_c, c= 1,2,...,m；The measured data sample L of input load_z, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_LSample number for load measurement data；Input Cycle-index k of Calculation of Reliability_n, and make k_n=1, the convergence criterion ITER of Calculation of Reliability.

2) sampling produces the random sample of tide flow velocity

2-1) randomly choose the tide flow velocity measured data during flood tide or ebb tide

Calculate the probability P of floodtime tide flow velocity measured data_pro:

$P_{pro}=\frac{n_f}{n_f+n_e}---\left(1\right)$

In formula, n_fFor the measured data sample number of floodtime tide flow velocity, n_eFor the actual measurement number of tide flow velocity during ebb tide According to sample number；

Then, in [0,1] interval, randomly generate one obey equally distributed random number R_ran:

If R_ran<P_pro, then the tide flow velocity measured data sample v of floodtime is selected_fiProduce the random of tide flow velocity Sample, and make v_t=v_fi, fi=1,2 ..., n_f, t=1,2 ..., n_f, make n_v=n_f, n_fReality for floodtime tide flow velocity Survey sample number；n_vSample number for tide flow speed data；

If R_ran≥P_pro, then the tide flow velocity measured data sample v during ebb tide is selected_eiProduce the random of tide flow velocity Sample, and make v_t=v_ei, ei=1,2 ..., n_e, t=1,2 ..., n_e, make n_v=n_e, n_eSurvey for tide flow velocity during ebb tide The sample number of data；n_vSample number for tide flow speed data

2-2) calculate the interval of tide flow speed data

Utilize tide flow speed data v_t, and the interval [a of tide flow velocity is calculated according to formula (2) and (3)_v,b_v], meter Calculate formula (2) and (3) to be respectively as follows:

$a_v=min\{v_1,v_2,...,v_{n_v}\}---\left(2\right)$

$b_v=max\{v_1,v_2,...,v_{n_v}\}---\left(3\right)$

In formula: b_v, a_vIt is respectively the upper and lower limit of tide flow velocity value；n_vSample number for tide flow speed data.

2-3) calculate the maximum of tide flow velocity probability density function

Utilize formula (4), computation bandwidth parameter h:

$h=1.06{\mathrm{\&sigma;n}}_v^{-1/5}---\left(4\right)$

In formula, n_vFor the sample number of tide flow speed data, σ is tide flow speed data v_tStandard deviation.

Formula (5) 2-4) is utilized to calculate each tide flow speed data v successively_t, t=1,2 ..., n_vCorresponding probability density letter Numerical value:

$f_f\left(v_t\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{n}_{v}h}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n_v}{\&Sigma;}}\exp \&lsqb;-\frac{1}{2}{\left(\frac{v_t-v_i}{h}\right)}^2\&rsqb;---\left(5\right)$

In formula, h is bandwidth parameter, v_iFor i-th tide flow speed data, i=1,2 ..., n_v, n_vFor tide flow speed data Sample number.

Formula (6) 2-5) is utilized to calculate the maximum f of tide flow velocity probability density function_fmax:

$f_{fmax}=max\{f_f\left(v_1\right),f_f\left(v_2\right),...,f_f\left(v_{n_v}\right)\}---\left(6\right)$

In formula, f_fmaxFor the maximum of tide flow velocity probability density function, v₁, v₂, v_nvIt is respectively the 1st, 2, n_vIndividual tidal current Speed data, n_vSample number for tide flow speed data.f(v₁), f (v₂), f (v_nv) it is respectively v₁, v₂, v_nvProbability density function Value.

2-6) sampling produces the random sample of tide flow velocity

Produce in [0,1] is interval and obey equally distributed random number R_v1、R_v2, according to formula 7) and calculate random sample e_v:

e_v=R_v1(b_v-a_v)+a_v (7)

2-7) calculate e according to formula (8)_vProbability density function values f_f(e_v), formula (8) is:

$f_f\left(e_v\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{n}_{v}h}\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}\exp \&lsqb;-\frac{1}{2}{\left(\frac{e_v-v_t}{h}\right)}^2\&rsqb;---\left(8\right)$

In formula, h is bandwidth parameter, v_tIt is the t tide flow speed data, t=1,2 ..., n_v, n_vFor tide flow speed data Sample number.

2-8) work as f_f(e_v) when meeting the condition shown in formula (9), by e_vRandom sample v as tide flow velocity_s, and make v_s =e_v；

Otherwise, jump back to 2-6), and in [0,1] is interval, again produce random number R_v1、R_v2, calculate e successively_vAnd f_f (e_v), till the condition shown in formula (9) meets.

Formula (9) is:

R_v2≤f_f(e_v)/f_fmax (9)

In formula: f_f(e_v) it is e_vProbability density function values, f_fmaxMaximum for tide flow velocity probability density function.

3) the running status sample of each tidal current energy generating set is randomly generated

According to the 1st) the degree of unavailability U of each tidal current energy generating set of step input_j, j=1,2 ..., N_g, successively for Jth tidal current energy generating set, produces random number R in [0,1] is interval_gj；

If R_gj＞ U_j, make the running status sample S of jth tidal current energy generating set_gjEqual to 1；

If R_gj≤U_j, then the running status sample S of jth tidal current energy generating set is made_gjEqual to 0, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor the unit sum in tidal current energy generating field.

4) output that tidal current energy generating field is total is calculated

According to the 1st) unit layout information in the tidal current energy generating field of step input and unit parameter, the 2nd) step calculates The tide flow velocity random sample v arrived_sWith the 3rd) the running status sample S of step calculated tidal current energy generating set_gj, calculate The output that tidal current energy generating field is total, calculation procedure is:

4-1) the tide flow velocity of each unit in calculating tidal current energy generating field

According to the 2nd) step calculated tide flow velocity random sample v_s, and the phase of each unit in tidal current energy generating field To positional information G_j=(g_jx,g_jy), j=1,2 ..., N_g, g_jx=1,2 ..., N_h, g_jy=1,2 ..., N_l, calculate each successively The tide flow speed value of unit；

Calculation procedure is:

If the relative position information g of unit_jxEqual to 1, then formula (10) is utilized to calculate jth tidal current energy generating set Tide flow speed value v_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g.Formula (10) is:

v_sj=v_s (10)

In formula, v_sjFor the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor tidal current energy Unit sum in generating field, v_sRandom sample for tide flow velocity.

If the relative position information g of unit_jxBe not equal to 1, then utilizing formula (11) to calculate jth tidal current successively can generate electricity The tide flow speed value of unit.Formula (11) is:

$v_{sj}=v_{su}-(v_s-v_s\sqrt{1-C_T}(0.0927\left(L_z/D\right)+0.993\left)\right)e^{\&lsqb;-({\left(L_h+0.081L_z-\left(D/2\right)\right)}^2/(2{\left(0.081L_z\right)}^2\left)\right)\&rsqb;}---\left(11\right)$

In formula, v_sjFor the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor tidal current energy Unit sum in generating field, v_suIt is the tide flow speed value of the su tidal current energy generating set, su=1,2 ..., N_g, su The positional information of individual tidal current energy generating set is (g_jx-1,g_jy)。v_sFor the random sample of tide flow velocity, C_TCan send out for tidal current The thrust coefficient of group of motors, L_hFor the lateral separation between each tidal current energy generating set, L_zFor between each tidal current energy generating set Fore-and-aft distance, D is the blade diameter of tidal current energy generating set.

4-2) the output of each unit in calculating tidal current energy generating field

Tide flow speed value v according to calculated each tidal current energy generating set_sj, utilize formula (12) to calculate successively respectively The output p of tidal current energy generating set_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor the unit sum in tidal current energy generating field.Public Formula (12) is:

$p_{sj}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& 0<v_{sj}<V_{cutin}\\ 0.5S_{gi}{C}_p{\mathrm{\&rho;AV}}_{sj}^3& V_{cutin}\&le;v_{sj}<V_{rated}\\ P_{rated}& V_{rated}\&le;v_{sj}\end{array}\right.---\left(12\right)$

In formula, p_sjFor the output of jth platform tidal current energy generating set, v_sjFor jth tidal current energy generating set Tide flow speed value, S_gjFor the running status sample of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor tidal current energy Unit sum in generating field.C_pFor the capacitation coefficient of tidal current energy generating set, ρ is density of sea water, and A is that tidal current can generate electricity The area that turbines vane is inswept, V_cutinIt is the incision flow velocity of tidal current energy generating set, V_ratedIt it is tidal current energy generating set Nominal flow rate, P_ratedIt it is the rated output power of tidal current energy generating set.

4-3) calculate the output that tidal current energy generating field is total

Output power value p according to calculated each tidal current energy generating set_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g.Utilize formula (13) output that tidal current energy generating field is total is calculated.Formula (13) is:

$P_{total}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{N_g}{\&Sigma;}}{p}_{sj}---\left(13\right)$

In formula, P_totalFor the output of tidal current energy generating field, p_sjOutput for jth tidal current energy generating set Power, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor the unit sum in tidal current energy generating field.

5) the running status sample of power system other types generating set is randomly generated

The degree of unavailability U of other types generating set in power system according to (1st) step input_c, c=1,2 ..., m, Utilize computer, successively to c in power system other kinds of generating set, in [0,1] is interval, produce random number R_oj, If R_oj＞ U_c, then the running status sample S of the c other types generating set is made_ocEqual to 1；If R_oj≤U_c, then make c its The running status sample S of his generator type group_ocEqual to 0, c=1,2 ..., m, m are other kinds of generating in power system Unit quantity.

6) sampling produces the random sample of load

According to the 1st) step input load measurement data L_z, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_LFor the sample number of load measurement data, Utilize the mean μ of formula (14) and (15) calculated load respectively_LAnd standard deviation sigma_L.Formula (14) and (15) are respectively as follows:

${\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L=\frac{1}{n_L}\underset{z=1}{\overset{n_L}{\&Sigma;}}{L}_z---\left(14\right)$

${\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L=\frac{1}{n_L}\underset{z=1}{\overset{n_L}{\&Sigma;}}\sqrt{{(L_z-{\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L)}^2}---\left(15\right)$

In formula, μ_LIt is the average of load, σ_LIt is the standard deviation of load, L_zFor the measured data of load, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_LSample number for load measurement data.

Then, the probability density function f (L) of formula (16) matching load L is utilized.Formula (16) is:

$f\left(L\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L}\exp (-\frac{{(L-{\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L)}^2}{2{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L^2})---\left(16\right)$

In formula, μ_LIt is the average of load, σ_LIt it is the standard deviation of load.

Then, utilizing computer, according to formula (16), sampling produces the random sample L of load_ran。

7) expected energy not supplied LOEE is calculated

7-1) according to the 1st) rated capacity P of power system other types generating set of step input_c, the 4th) step calculates The tidal current energy generating field output P arrived_total, the 5th) operation of step calculated power system other types generating set State sample S_oc, the 6th) step calculated load random sample L_ran, utilize formula (17) to calculate electricity deficiency index DNS_k, k =1,2 ...., k_n, formula (17) is:

${\mathrm{DNS}}_k=max\{0,L_{ran}-(\underset{c=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}{P}_c*S_{oc}+P_{total})\}---\left(17\right)$

In formula, L_ranFor the random sample of load, S_ocFor the running status sample of power system other types generating set, P_cFor the rated capacity of power system other types generating set, P_totalFor the output that tidal current energy generating field is total.

If 7-2) k_n≤ 1, then make the coefficient of variation η of electricity deficiency index equal to 2*ITER；

If k_n> 1, then utilize formula (18) to calculate the coefficient of variation η of electricity deficiency index, formula (18) is:

$\mathrm{\&eta;}=\frac{\sqrt{\frac{\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{({\mathrm{DNS}}_k-\frac{1}{k_n}\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k)}^2}{k_n(k_n-1)}}}{\frac{1}{k_n}\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k}---\left(18\right)$

In formula, DNS_kFor electricity deficiency index, k_nCycle-index for Calculation of Reliability.

7-3) carry out convergence judgement.If η is ＞ ITER, then make k_n=k_n+ 1, and return step 2) (sampling again) continuation meter Calculate, until η≤ITER；

If η≤ITER, then reliability cycle calculations terminates, and calculates expected energy not supplied LOEE according to formula (19), public Formula (19) is:

$LOEE=\frac{\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k}{k_n}*8736---\left(19\right)$

In formula, DNS_kFor electricity deficiency index, k_nCycle-index for Calculation of Reliability.

I.e. obtain the generating reliability index containing tidal current energy generating field power system: expected energy not supplied LOEE.

After the present invention uses technique scheme, mainly have the following effects:

1, the inventive method can not only be counted and the difference of tide flow velocity fluctuation tide characteristic, but also can take into full account tide Wake effect in the randomness of flow velocity and tidal current energy generating field, so can to containing tidal current energy generating field power system, Carry out generating reliability accurate, quick assessment.

2, the inventive method uses nonparametric probability theoretical, the randomness of tide simulation flow velocity, it is not necessary to any Parameter distribution it is assumed that the probability density function of tide flow velocity can accurately be estimated, there is precision feature high, adaptable.

3, the inventive method is from the measured data of tide flow velocity, according to relevant informations such as generator 's parameters, is filling In the case of dividing the factors such as meter and tide flow velocity fluctuation tide regularity, randomness, wake effect and unit fault, to containing tide Stream generating field power system can carry out generating reliability assessment, and method is simple, practical, it is simple to popularization and application.

The composite can be widely applied in the generating reliability assessment containing tidal current energy generating field power system, it is possible to for electricity All kinds of planning applications that Force system is relevant provide solid theoretical basis and decision-making foundation.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the program flow chart of the inventive method；

The coefficient of variation of Fig. 2 electricity deficiency index is with the change curve of Calculation of Reliability cycle-index.

Detailed description of the invention

Below in conjunction with embodiment, the invention will be further described, but only should not be construed the above-mentioned subject area of the present invention It is limited to following embodiment.Without departing from the idea case in the present invention described above, according to ordinary skill knowledge with used By means, make various replacement and change, all should include within the scope of the present invention.

As it is shown in figure 1, the tool of certain generating reliability appraisal procedure containing tidal current energy generating field power system of China X area Body step is as follows:

1) the tide flow velocity measured data during flood tide and ebb tide, tidal current energy generator 's parameter, tidal current energy are inputted The parameter of other types unit, load measurement data, reliability circulation meter in unit layout information in generating field, power system The relevant parameter calculated

The tide flow velocity measured data sample v of input floodtime_fi, fi=1,2 ..., n_f, n_f=195 is floodtime The measured data sample number of tide flow velocity；Tide flow velocity measured data sample v during ebb tide_ei, ei=1,2 ..., n_e, n_e= 185 is the measured data sample number of tide flow velocity during ebb tide；Density of sea water ρ=1025kg/m³；Tidal current energy generating set Incision flow velocity V_cutin=1.2m/s, nominal flow rate V_rated=2.5m/s, rated output power P_rated=1MW, capacitation coefficient C_p= 0.5, thrust coefficient C_T=0.7, blade diameter D=20m, area A=314m that blade is inswept²；Machine in tidal current energy generating field Group sum N_g=4, the degree of unavailability U of each unit_j, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, U₁=0.035, U₂=0.035, U₃= 0.035, U₄=0.035, the unit number N often gone_h=2, the unit number N of each column_l=2, lateral separation L between each unit_h=60m With fore-and-aft distance L_z=60m, the relative position information G of each unit_j=(g_jx,g_jy), j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, g_jx=1, 2,...,N_h=2, g_jy=1,2 ..., N_l=2, this represents that jth unit is positioned at the g of tidal current energy generating field_jxRow g_jy Row；G₁=(g_1x=1, g_1y=1), G₂=(g_2x=1, g_2y=2), G₃=(g_3x=2, g_3y=1), G₄=(g_4x=2, g_4y=2)； Rated capacity P of quantity m=11 of other types generating set, each unit in input electric power system_c、P₁=5MW, P₂= 5MW, P₃=10MW, P₄=20MW, P₅=20MW, P₆=20MW, P₇=20MW, P₈=20MW, P₉=40MW, P₁₀=40MW, P₁₁ =40MW, degree of unavailability U_c, c=1,2 ..., m=11, U₁=0.01, U₂=0.01, U₃=0.02, U₄=0.015, U₅= 0.015, U₆=0.015, U₇=0.015, U₈=0.025, U₉=0.02, U₁₀=0.029, U₁₁=0.029；The reality of input load Survey data sample L_z, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_L=8736 is the sample number of load measurement data；The circulation of input Calculation of Reliability Number of times k_n, and make k_n=1, the convergence criterion ITER=0.05 of Calculation of Reliability.

2) sampling produces the random sample of tide flow velocity

According to the tide flow velocity measured data sample during the flood tide inputted and ebb tide, randomly generate the random of tide flow velocity Sample, specifically comprises the following steps that

2-1 randomly chooses the tide flow velocity measured data during flood tide or ebb tide

First, calculating the probability of floodtime tide flow velocity measured data according to formula (1), formula (1) is

$P_{pro}=\frac{n_f}{n_f+n_e}---\left(1\right)$

In formula, P_proFor the probability of floodtime tide flow velocity measured data, n_f=195 is floodtime tide flow velocity Measured data sample number, n_e=185 is the measured data sample number of tide flow velocity during ebb tide.

Result of calculation, the probability P of floodtime tide flow velocity measured data_pro=0.51.

Then, utilize computer, in [0,1] interval, randomly generate one obey equally distributed random number R_ran= 0.13, if R_ran=0.13 < P_pro=0.51, then select the tide flow velocity measured data of floodtime to produce tide flow velocity with Press proof originally, and makes v_t=v_fi, fi=1,2 ..., n_f, t=1,2 ..., n_f=195, make n_v=n_f=195, n_f=195 is flood tide The actual measurement sample number of period tide flow velocity；If R_ran≥P_pro, then the tide flow velocity measured data during selecting ebb tide produces tide The random sample of nighttide flow velocity, and make v_t=v_ei, ei=1,2 ..., n_e, t=1,2 ..., n_e, make n_v=n_e, n_eDuring ebb tide The sample number of tide flow velocity measured data.

2-2) calculate the interval of tide flow speed data

According to calculated tide flow speed data v_t, t=1,2 ..., n_v, n_v=195 is the sample of tide flow speed data Number, utilizes formula (2) and (3) to calculate the interval [a of tide flow velocity_v,b_v], computing formula (2) and (3) are respectively as follows:

$a_v=min\{v_1,v_2,...,v_{n_v}\}---\left(2\right)$

$b_v=max\{v_1,v_2,...,v_{n_v}\}---\left(3\right)$

In formula: b_v, a_vIt is respectively the upper and lower limit of tide flow velocity value；n_vSample number for tide flow speed data.

Result of calculation is: the interval of tide flow velocity is [a_v=0.1246m/s, b_v=3.3650m/s].

2-3) calculate the maximum of tide flow velocity probability density function

Measured data v according to tide flow velocity_t, t=1,2 ..., n_v, n_v=195 is the sample number of tide flow speed data, Utilizing formula (4), computation bandwidth parameter h, formula (4) is:

$h=1.06{\mathrm{\&sigma;n}}_v^{-1/5}---\left(4\right)$

In formula, n_v=195 is the sample number of tide flow speed data, and σ=0.7095 is the standard deviation of tide flow speed data.

Result of calculation: bandwidth parameter h=0.1395.

Formula (5) 2-4) is utilized to calculate each tide flow speed data v successively_t, t=1,2 ..., n_vCorresponding probability density letter Numerical value, formula (5) is:

$f_f\left(v_t\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{n}_{v}h}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n_v}{\&Sigma;}}\exp \&lsqb;-\frac{1}{2}{\left(\frac{v_t-v_i}{h}\right)}^2\&rsqb;---\left(5\right)$

In formula, h=0.1395 is bandwidth parameter, v_tFor tide flow speed data, t=1,2 ..., n_v=195.v_iFor i-th Tide flow speed data, i=1,2 ..., n_v, n_v=195 is the sample number of tide flow speed data.

Formula (6) 2-5) is utilized to calculate the maximum f of tide flow velocity probability density function_fmax, formula (6) is:

$f_{fmax}=max\{f_f\left(v_1\right),f_f\left(v_2\right),...,f_f\left(v_{n_v}\right)\}---\left(6\right)$

In formula, f_fmaxFor the maximum of tide flow velocity probability density function, v₁, v₂, v_nvIt is respectively the 1st, 2, n_v=195 Tide flow speed data, n_v=195 is the sample number of tide flow speed data.f(v₁), f (v₂), f (v_nv) it is respectively v₁, v₂, v_nvGeneral Rate density function values.

Result of calculation: the maximum f of tide flow velocity probability density function_fmax=0.4961.

2-6) sampling produces the random sample of tide flow velocity

Utilize computer, produce in [0,1] is interval and obey equally distributed random number R_v1=0.9572, R_v2= 0.0114, calculate random sample e according to formula (7)_v, formula (7) is:

e_v=R_v1(b_v-a_v)+a_v (7)

Result of calculation: random sample e_v=3.2263.

2-7) calculate e according to formula (8)_vProbability density function values f_f(e_v), formula (8) is:

$f_f\left(e_v\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{n}_{v}h}\underset{t=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}\exp \&lsqb;-\frac{1}{2}{\left(\frac{e_v-v_t}{h}\right)}^2\&rsqb;---\left(8\right)$

In formula, h=0.1395 is bandwidth parameter, v_tIt is the t tide flow speed data, t=1,2 ..., n_v, n_v=195 are The sample number of tide flow speed data.

Result of calculation: e_vProbability density function values f_f(e_v)=0.0073.

2-8) work as f_f(e_vWhen)=0.0073 meets the condition shown in formula (9), by e_v=3.2263 as tide flow velocity Random sample v_s, and make v_s=e_v=3.2263；

Otherwise, jump back to 2-6), utilize computer, in [0,1] is interval, again produces random number R_v1、R_v2, and count successively Calculate e_vAnd f_f(e_v), till the condition shown in formula (9) meets.Formula (9) is:

R_v2≤f_f(e_v)/f_fmax (9)

In formula: f_f(e_v) it is e_vProbability density function values, f_fmaxMaximum for tide flow velocity probability density function.

Result of calculation: the random sample v of tide flow velocity_s=3.2263m/s.

3) the running status sample of each tidal current energy generating set is randomly generated

Utilize computer, according to the degree of unavailability U of each tidal current energy generating set of input_j, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, Successively for jth tidal current energy generating set, in [0,1] is interval, produce random number R_gjIf, R_gj＞ U_j, then jth tide is made The running status sample S of nighttide stream energy generating set_gjEqual to 1；If R_gj≤U_j, then the operation of jth tidal current energy generating set is made State sample S_gjEqual to 0, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor the unit sum in tidal current energy generating field.

Result of calculation: S_g1=1, S_g2=1, S_g3=1, S_g4=1.

4) output that tidal current energy generating field is total is calculated

The unit layout information in tidal current energy generating field according to input and unit parameter, calculated tidal current Speed random sample v_sRunning status sample S with calculated tidal current energy generating set_gj, calculate tidal current energy generating field total Output, calculation procedure is:

4-1) the tide flow velocity of each unit in calculating tidal current energy generating field

According to calculated tide flow velocity random sample v_sEach unit in=3.2263, and tidal current energy generating field Relative position information G_j=(g_jx,g_jy), j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, g_jx=1,2 ..., N_h=2, g_jy=1,2 ..., N_l=2, Calculate the tide flow speed value of each unit successively.Calculation procedure is:

First, if g_jxEqual to 1, then formula (10) is utilized to calculate the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set v_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4.Formula (10) is:

v_sj=v_s (10)

In formula, v_sjFor the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, N_g=4 is tide Unit sum in nighttide stream energy generating field, v_s=3.2263 is the random sample of tide flow velocity.

If g_jxIt is not equal to 1, then utilizes formula (11) to calculate the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set successively. Formula (11) is:

$v_{sj}=v_{su}-(v_s-v_s\sqrt{1-C_T}(0.0927\left(L_z/D\right)+0.993\left)\right)e^{\&lsqb;-({\left(L_h+0.081L_z-\left(D/2\right)\right)}^2/(2{\left(0.081L_z\right)}^2\left)\right)\&rsqb;}---\left(11\right)$

In formula, v_sjFor the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, N_g=4 is tide Unit sum in nighttide stream energy generating field, v_suIt is the tide flow speed value of the su tidal current energy generating set, su=1,2 ..., N_g, the positional information of the su tidal current energy generating set is (g_jx-1,g_jy)。v_s=3.2263 be tide flow velocity with press proof This, C_T=0.7 is the thrust coefficient of tidal current energy generating set, L_h=2 is the lateral separation between each tidal current energy generating set, L_z=4 is the fore-and-aft distance between each tidal current energy generating set, and D=20m is the blade diameter of tidal current energy generating set.

Result of calculation: the tide flow speed value v of tidal current energy generating set_s1=3.2263, v_s2=3.2263, v_s3=3.0, v_s4=3.0.

4-2) the output of each unit in calculating tidal current energy generating field

Tide flow speed value v according to calculated each tidal current energy generating set_sj=3.2263, utilize formula (12) to depend on The output p of secondary calculating each tidal current energy generating set_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, N_gIn=4 are tidal current energy generating field Unit sum.Formula (12) is:

$p_{sj}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& 0<v_{sj}<V_{cutin}\\ 0.5S_{gi}{C}_p{\mathrm{\&rho;AV}}_{sj}^3& V_{cutin}\&le;v_{sj}<V_{rated}\\ P_{rated}& V_{rated}\&le;v_{sj}\end{array}\right.---\left(12\right)$

In formula, p_sjFor the output of jth platform tidal current energy generating set, v_sjFor jth tidal current energy generating set Tide flow speed value, S_gjFor the running status sample of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, N_g=4 is tide Unit sum in nighttide stream energy generating field.C_p=0.5 is the capacitation coefficient of tidal current energy generating set, ρ=1025kg/m³For sea Water density, A=314m²For the area that tidal current energy generating set blade is inswept, V_cutin=1.2m/s is tidal current energy electromotor The incision flow velocity of group, V_rated=2.5m/s is the nominal flow rate of tidal current energy generating set, P_rated=1MW is that tidal current can be sent out The rated output power of group of motors.

Result of calculation: the output p of tidal current energy generating set_s1=1MW, p_s2=1MW, p_s3=1MW, p_s4=1MW.

4-3) calculate the output that tidal current energy generating field is total

Output power value p according to calculated each tidal current energy generating set_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4.Utilize Formula (13) calculates the output that tidal current energy generating field is total.Formula (13) is:

$P_{total}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{N_g}{\&Sigma;}}{p}_{sj}---\left(13\right)$

In formula, P_totalFor the output of tidal current energy generating field, p_sjOutput for jth tidal current energy generating set Power, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_g=4 is the unit sum in tidal current energy generating field.

Result of calculation: the output P of tidal current energy generating field_total=4MW.

5) the running status sample of power system other types generating set is randomly generated

The degree of unavailability U of other types generating set in power system according to input_c, c=1,2 ..., m=11, profit With computer, successively to c in power system other kinds of generating set, in [0,1] is interval, produce random number R_ojIf, R_oj＞ U_c, then the running status sample S of the c other types generating set is made_ocEqual to 1；If R_oj≤U_c, then make c other The running status sample S of generator type group_ocEqual to 0, c=1,2 ..., m, m are other kinds of electromotor in power system Group quantity.

Result of calculation: the running status sample S of power system other types generating set_o1=1, S_o2=1, S_o3=1, S_o4 =1, S_o5=1, S_o6=1, S_o7=1, S_o8=1, S_o9=1, S_o10=1, S_o11=1.

(6) sampling produces the random sample of load

Load measurement data L according to input_z, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_L=8736 is the sample number of load measurement data, Utilize the mean μ of formula (14) and (15) calculated load respectively_LAnd standard deviation sigma_L.Formula (14) and (15) are respectively as follows:

${\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L=\frac{1}{n_L}\underset{z=1}{\overset{n_L}{\&Sigma;}}{L}_z---\left(14\right)$

${\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L=\frac{1}{n_L}\underset{z=1}{\overset{n_L}{\&Sigma;}}\sqrt{{(L_z-{\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L)}^2}---\left(15\right)$

In formula, μ_LIt is the average of load, σ_LIt is the standard deviation of load, L_zFor the measured data of load, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_L=8736 is the sample number of load measurement data.

Result of calculation: the mean μ of load_L=113.6639MW, the standard deviation sigma of load_L=5.5025.

Then, the probability density function f (L) of formula (16) matching load L is utilized.Formula (16) is:

$f\left(L\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L}\exp (-\frac{{(L-{\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L)}^2}{2{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L^2})---\left(16\right)$

In formula, μ_LIt is the average of load, σ_LIt it is the standard deviation of load.

Then, utilizing computer, according to formula (16), sampling produces the random sample L of load_ran。

Result of calculation: the random sample L of load_ran=107.3522MW.

(7) expected energy not supplied LOEE is calculated

7-1) rated capacity P of the power system other types generating set inputted according to step_c, calculated tidal current Can generating field output P_total=4MW, the running status sample of calculated power system other types generating set S_oc, calculated load random sample L_ran=107.3522MW, utilizes formula (17) to calculate electricity deficiency index DNS_k, k= 1,2,....,k_n, formula (17) is:

${\mathrm{DNS}}_k=max\{0,L_{ran}-(\underset{c=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}{P}_c*S_{oc}+P_{total})\}---\left(17\right)$

In formula, L_ran=107.3522MW is the random sample of load, S_ocFortune for power system other types generating set Row state sample, P_cFor the rated capacity of power system other types generating set, P_total=4MW is that tidal current energy generating field is total Output.

Result of calculation: with k_nAs a example by=1, DNS₁=0MW.

If 7-2) k_n≤ 1, then make the coefficient of variation η of electricity deficiency index equal to 2*ITER=0.1；If k_n> 1, then utilize public affairs Formula (18) calculates the coefficient of variation η of electricity deficiency index, and formula (18) is:

$\mathrm{\&eta;}=\frac{\sqrt{\frac{\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{({\mathrm{DNS}}_k-\frac{1}{k_n}\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k)}^2}{k_n(k_n-1)}}}{\frac{1}{k_n}\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k}---\left(18\right)$

In formula, DNS_kFor electricity deficiency index, k_nCycle-index for Calculation of Reliability.

7-3) carry out convergence judgement.If η is ＞ ITER, then make k_n=k_n+ 1=2, and return step (2) continuation calculating, directly To η≤ITER；If η≤ITER, then reliability cycle calculations terminates, and calculates expected energy not supplied LOEE according to formula (19), Formula (19) is:

$LOEE=\frac{\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k}{k_n}*8736---\left(19\right)$

In formula, DNS_kFor electricity deficiency index, k_nCycle-index for Calculation of Reliability.

So far, modeling terminates, and obtains the generating reliability index containing tidal current energy generating field power system: the electricity deficiency phase Hope LOEE.

Result of calculation: when cycle-index k of Calculation of Reliability_nWhen=9641, the coefficient of variation η of electricity deficiency index= 0.05≤ITER, then reliability cycle calculations terminates, and is calculated containing tidal current energy generating field power system according to formula (19) Generating reliability index: expected energy not supplied LOEE=13.0255MWh/.

Test effect:

To embodiment 1 China X certain energy generating field power system Han tidal current of area, designing following simulation example, checking is originally The effectiveness of inventive method.

To embodiment 1 China X area China X certain energy generating field power system Han tidal current of area, input floodtime Tide flow velocity measured data sample v_fi, fi=1,2 ..., n_f, n_f=195 is the measured data sample of floodtime tide flow velocity Number；Tide flow velocity measured data sample v during ebb tide_ei, ei=1,2 ..., n_e, n_e=185 is tide flow velocity during ebb tide Measured data sample number；Density of sea water ρ=1025kg/m³；The incision flow velocity V of tidal current energy generating set_cutin=1.2m/s, Nominal flow rate V_rated=2.5m/s, rated output power P_rated=1MW, capacitation coefficient C_p=0.5, thrust coefficient C_T=0.7, leaf Sheet diameter D=20m, the area A=314m that blade is inswept²；Unit sum N in tidal current energy generating field_g=4, each unit Degree of unavailability U_j, j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, U₁=0.035, U₂=0.035, U₃=0.035, U₄=0.035, the unit often gone Number N_h=2, the unit number N of each column_l=2, lateral separation L between each unit_h=60m and fore-and-aft distance L_z=60m, each unit Relative position information G_j=(g_jx,g_jy), j=1,2 ..., N_g=4, g_jx=1,2 ..., N_h=2, g_jy=1,2 ..., N_l=2, This represents that jth unit is positioned at the g of tidal current energy generating field_jxRow g_jyRow；G₁=(g_1x=1, g_1y=1), G₂=(g_2x =1, g_2y=2), G₃=(g_3x=2, g_3y=1), G₄=(g_4x=2, g_4y=2)；Other types electromotor in input electric power system Quantity m=11 of group, rated capacity P of each unit_c、P₁=5MW, P₂=5MW, P₃=10MW, P₄=20MW, P₅=20MW, P₆=20MW, P₇=20MW, P₈=20MW, P₉=40MW, P₁₀=40MW, P₁₁=40MW, degree of unavailability U_c, c=1,2 ..., m =11, U₁=0.01, U₂=0.01, U₃=0.02, U₄=0.015, U₅=0.015, U₆=0.015, U₇=0.015, U₈= 0.025, U₉=0.02, U₁₀=0.029, U₁₁=0.029；The measured data sample L of input load_z, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_L= 8736 is the sample number of load measurement data；Cycle-index k of input Calculation of Reliability_n, and make k_n=1, the receipts of Calculation of Reliability Hold back criterion ITER=0.05.

Use the inventive method that this power system is carried out generating reliability assessment, obtain containing tidal current energy generating field electric power The generating reliability index of system: expected energy not supplied LOEE=13.0255MWh/.And draw the variance of electricity deficiency index Coefficient is with the change curve of Calculation of Reliability cycle-index, as shown in Figure 2.

Claims (1)

1. the generating reliability appraisal procedure containing tidal current energy generating field power system, it is characterised in that include following step Rapid:

1) parameter is obtained:

Obtain the tide flow velocity measured data sample v of floodtime_fi, fi=1,2 ..., n_f, n_fFor floodtime tide flow velocity Measured data sample number；

Tide flow velocity measured data sample v during ebb tide_ei, ei=1,2 ..., n_e, n_eFor the actual measurement of tide flow velocity during ebb tide Data sample number；

Density of sea water ρ；The incision flow velocity V of tidal current energy generating set_cutin, nominal flow rate V_rated, rated output power P_rated、 Capacitation coefficient C_p, thrust coefficient C_T, blade diameter D, area A that blade is inswept；

Unit sum N in tidal current energy generating field_g, the degree of unavailability U of each unit_j, j=1,2 ..., N_g, often capable unit Number N_h, the unit number N of each column_l, lateral separation L between each unit_hWith fore-and-aft distance L_z, the relative position information G of each unit_j= (g_jx,g_jy), j=1,2 ..., N_g, g_jx=1,2 ..., N_h, g_jy=1,2 ..., N_l, this represents that jth unit is positioned at tidal current energy G in generating field_jxRow g_jyRow；

Rated capacity P of quantity m of other types generating set, each unit in power system_c, degree of unavailability U_c, c=1, 2,...,m；The measured data sample L of input load_z, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_LSample number for load measurement data；Input can Cycle-index k calculated by property_n, and make k_n=1, the convergence criterion ITER of Calculation of Reliability.

2) sampling produces the random sample of tide flow velocity

2-1) randomly choose the tide flow velocity measured data during flood tide or ebb tide

Calculate the probability P of floodtime tide flow velocity measured data_pro:

$P_{pro}=\frac{n_f}{n_f+n_e}---\left(1\right)$

In formula, n_fFor the measured data sample number of floodtime tide flow velocity, n_eFor the measured data sample of tide flow velocity during ebb tide This number；

Then, in [0,1] interval, randomly generate one obey equally distributed random number R_ran:

If R_ran<P_pro, then the tide flow velocity measured data sample v of floodtime is selected_fiProduce the random sample of tide flow velocity, And make v_t=v_fi, fi=1,2 ..., n_f, t=1,2 ..., n_f, make n_v=n_f, n_fActual measurement sample for floodtime tide flow velocity Number；n_vSample number for tide flow speed data；

If R_ran≥P_pro, then the tide flow velocity measured data sample v during ebb tide is selected_eiProduce tide flow velocity with press proof This, and make v_t=v_ei, ei=1,2 ..., n_e, t=1,2 ..., n_e, make n_v=n_e, n_eFor tide flow velocity measured data during ebb tide Sample number；n_vSample number for tide flow speed data

2-2) calculate the interval of tide flow speed data

Utilize tide flow speed data v_t, and the interval [a of tide flow velocity is calculated according to formula (2) and (3)_v,b_v], calculate public affairs Formula (2) and (3) are respectively as follows:

a_v=min{v₁,v₂,...,v_nv} (2)

b_v=max{v₁,v₂,...,v_nv} (3)

In formula: b_v, a_vIt is respectively the upper and lower limit of tide flow velocity value；n_vSample number for tide flow speed data.

2-3) calculate the maximum of tide flow velocity probability density function

Utilize formula (4), computation bandwidth parameter h:

$h=1.06{\mathrm{\&sigma;n}}_v^{-1/5}---\left(4\right)$

In formula, n_vFor the sample number of tide flow speed data, σ is tide flow speed data v_tStandard deviation.

Formula (5) 2-4) is utilized to calculate each tide flow speed data v successively_t, t=1,2 ..., n_vCorresponding probability density function values:

$f_f\left(v_t\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{n}_{v}h}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n_v}{\&Sigma;}}\exp \&lsqb;-\frac{1}{2}{\left(\frac{v_t-v_i}{h}\right)}^2\&rsqb;---\left(5\right)$

In formula, h is bandwidth parameter, v_iFor i-th tide flow speed data, i=1,2 ..., n_v, n_vSample for tide flow speed data This number.

Formula (6) 2-5) is utilized to calculate the maximum f of tide flow velocity probability density function_fmax:

f_fmax=max{f_f(v₁),f_f(v₂),...,f_f(v_nv)} (6)

In formula, f_fmaxFor the maximum of tide flow velocity probability density function, v₁, v₂, v_nvIt is respectively the 1st, 2, n_vIndividual tide flow velocity number According to, n_vSample number for tide flow speed data.f(v₁), f (v₂), f (v_nv) it is respectively v₁, v₂, v_nvProbability density function values.

2-6) sampling produces the random sample of tide flow velocity

Produce in [0,1] is interval and obey equally distributed random number R_v1、R_v2, according to formula 7) and calculate random sample e_v:

e_v=R_v1(b_v-a_v)+a_v (7)

2-7) calculate e according to formula (8)_vProbability density function values f_f(e_v), formula (8) is:

$f_f\left(e_v\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{n}_{v}h}\underset{t=1}{\overset{n_v}{\&Sigma;}}\exp \&lsqb;-\frac{1}{2}{\left(\frac{e_v-v_t}{h}\right)}^2\&rsqb;---\left(8\right)$

In formula, h is bandwidth parameter, v_tIt is the t tide flow speed data, t=1,2 ..., n_v, n_vSample for tide flow speed data Number.

2-8) work as f_f(e_v) when meeting the condition shown in formula (9), by e_vRandom sample v as tide flow velocity_s, and make v_s= e_v；

Otherwise, jump back to 2-6), and in [0,1] is interval, again produce random number R_v1、R_v2, calculate e successively_vAnd f_f(e_v), until Till condition shown in formula (9) meets.

Formula (9) is:

R_v2≤f_f(e_v)/f_fmax(9) in formula: f_f(e_v) it is e_vProbability density function values, f_fmaxFor tide flow velocity probability density The maximum of function.

3) the running status sample of each tidal current energy generating set is randomly generated

According to the 1st) the degree of unavailability U of each tidal current energy generating set of step input_j, j=1,2 ..., N_g, successively for jth Tidal current energy generating set, produces random number R in [0,1] is interval_gj；

If R_gj＞ U_j, make the running status sample S of jth tidal current energy generating set_gjEqual to 1；

If R_gj≤U_j, then the running status sample S of jth tidal current energy generating set is made_gjEqual to 0, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor Unit sum in tidal current energy generating field.

4) output that tidal current energy generating field is total is calculated

4-1) the tide flow velocity of each unit in calculating tidal current energy generating field

If the relative position information g of unit_jxEqual to 1, then formula (10) is utilized to calculate the tide of jth tidal current energy generating set Flow speed value v_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g.Formula (10) is:

v_sj=v_s (10)

In formula, v_sjFor the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor tidal current energy generating field Interior unit sum, v_sRandom sample for tide flow velocity.

If the relative position information g of unit_jxIt is not equal to 1, then utilizes formula (11) to calculate jth tidal current energy generating set successively Tide flow speed value.Formula (11) is:

$v_{sj}=v_{su}-(v_s-v_s\sqrt{1-C_T}(0.0927\left(L_z/D\right)+0.993\left)\right)e^{\&lsqb;-({\left(L_h+0.081L_z-\left(D/2\right)\right)}^2/(2{\left(0.081L_z\right)}^2\left)\right)\&rsqb;}---\left(11\right)$

In formula, v_sjFor the tide flow speed value of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor tidal current energy generating field Interior unit sum, v_suIt is the tide flow speed value of the su tidal current energy generating set, su=1,2 ..., N_g, the su tide The positional information of stream energy generating set is (g_jx-1,g_jy)。v_sFor the random sample of tide flow velocity, C_TFor tidal current energy generating set Thrust coefficient, L_hFor the lateral separation between each tidal current energy generating set, L_zFor between each tidal current energy generating set longitudinally away from From, D is the blade diameter of tidal current energy generating set.

4-2) the output of each unit in calculating tidal current energy generating field

Formula (12) is utilized to calculate the output p of each tidal current energy generating set successively_sj, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor tidal current Unit sum in energy generating field.Formula (12) is:

$p_{sj}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& 0<v_{sj}<V_{cutin}\\ 0.5S_{gi}{C}_p{\mathrm{\&rho;Av}}_{sj}^3& V_{cutin}\&le;v_{sj}<V_{rated}\\ P_{rated}& V_{rated}\&le;v_{sj}\end{array}\right.---\left(12\right)$

In formula, p_sjFor the output of jth platform tidal current energy generating set, v_sjTide for jth tidal current energy generating set Flow speed value, S_gjFor the running status sample of jth tidal current energy generating set, j=1,2 ..., N_g, N_gCan generate electricity for tidal current Unit sum in Chang.C_pFor the capacitation coefficient of tidal current energy generating set, ρ is density of sea water, and A is tidal current energy generating set The area that blade is inswept, V_cutinIt is the incision flow velocity of tidal current energy generating set, V_ratedIt is the specified of tidal current energy generating set Flow velocity, P_ratedIt it is the rated output power of tidal current energy generating set.

4-3) calculate the output that tidal current energy generating field is total

Formula (13) is utilized to calculate the output that tidal current energy generating field is total.Formula (13) is:

$P_{total}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{N_g}{\&Sigma;}}{p}_{sj}---\left(13\right)$

In formula, P_totalFor the output of tidal current energy generating field, p_sjFor the output of jth tidal current energy generating set, j =1,2 ..., N_g, N_gFor the unit sum in tidal current energy generating field.

5) the running status sample of power system other types generating set is randomly generated

Successively to c in power system other kinds of generating set, in [0,1] is interval, produce random number R_ojIf, R_oj＞ U_c, then the running status sample S of the c other types generating set is made_ocEqual to 1；If R_oj≤U_c, then the c other types is made The running status sample S of generating set_ocEqual to 0, c=1,2 ..., m, m are other kinds of generating set number in power system Amount.

6) sampling produces the random sample of load

Utilize the mean μ of formula (14) and (15) calculated load respectively_LAnd standard deviation sigma_L.Formula (14) and (15) are respectively as follows:

${\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L=\frac{1}{n_L}\underset{z=1}{\overset{n_L}{\&Sigma;}}{L}_z---\left(14\right)$

${\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L=\frac{1}{n_L}\underset{z=1}{\overset{n_L}{\&Sigma;}}\sqrt{{(L_z-{\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L)}^2}---\left(15\right)$

In formula, μ_LIt is the average of load, σ_LIt is the standard deviation of load, L_zFor the measured data of load, z=1,2 ..., n_L, n_LIt is negative The sample number of lotus measured data.

Then, the probability density function f (L) of formula (16) matching load L is utilized.Formula (16) is:

$f\left(L\right)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\mathrm{\&pi;}}{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L}\exp (-\frac{{(L-{\mathrm{\&mu;}}_L)}^2}{2{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_L^2})---\left(16\right)$

In formula, μ_LIt is the average of load, σ_LIt it is the standard deviation of load.

According to formula (16), sampling produces the random sample L of load_ran。

7) expected energy not supplied LOEE is calculated

Formula (17) 7-1) is utilized to calculate electricity deficiency index DNS_k, k=1,2 ...., k_n, formula (17) is:

${\mathrm{DNS}}_k=max\{0,L_{ran}-(\underset{c=1}{\overset{m}{\&Sigma;}}{P}_c*S_{oc}+P_{total})\}---\left(17\right)$

In formula, L_ranFor the random sample of load, S_ocFor the running status sample of power system other types generating set, P_cFor The rated capacity of power system other types generating set, P_totalFor the output that tidal current energy generating field is total.

If 7-2) k_n≤ 1, then make the coefficient of variation η of electricity deficiency index equal to 2*ITER；

If k_n> 1, then utilize formula (18) to calculate the coefficient of variation η of electricity deficiency index, formula (18) is:

$\mathrm{\&eta;}=\frac{\sqrt{\frac{\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{({\mathrm{DNS}}_k-\frac{1}{k_n}\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k)}^2}{k_n(k_n-1)}}}{\frac{1}{k_n}\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k}---\left(18\right)$

In formula, DNS_kFor electricity deficiency index, k_nCycle-index for Calculation of Reliability.

7-3) carry out convergence judgement.If η is ＞ ITER, then make k_n=k_n+ 1, and return step 2) continue to calculate, until η≤ ITER；

If η≤ITER, then reliability cycle calculations terminates, and calculates expected energy not supplied LOEE, formula according to formula (19) (19) it is:

$LOEE=\frac{\underset{k=1}{\overset{k_n}{\&Sigma;}}{\mathrm{DNS}}_k}{k_n}*8736---\left(19\right)$

In formula, DNS_kFor electricity deficiency index, k_nCycle-index for Calculation of Reliability.

I.e. obtain the generating reliability index containing tidal current energy generating field power system: expected energy not supplied LOEE.