CN105868872B - A kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method - Google Patents
A kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method Download PDFInfo
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- CN105868872B CN105868872B CN201610365532.4A CN201610365532A CN105868872B CN 105868872 B CN105868872 B CN 105868872B CN 201610365532 A CN201610365532 A CN 201610365532A CN 105868872 B CN105868872 B CN 105868872B
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- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method, this method are as follows: based on it is more when time thunder and lightning range forecast to determine thunder and lightning subregion；The direct attack thunderbolt probability and thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening of route where determining each shaft tower；According to the thunderbolt of route where shaft tower tripping probability and counterattack tripping determine the probability lightning stroke trip probability；The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where determining shaft tower according to induced overvoltage maximum value on conducting wire, the thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate of shaft tower place route is obtained by constructing fuzzy mathematical model, to obtain the thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where considering each shaft tower of intensity of lightning current；By establishing distribution line temperature model, according to distribution line, active time determines that transient fault probability occurs for region feeder line section to be measured；It establishes and considers that distribution line breaks down probabilistic model under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster；Predict the probability that region feeder line section to be measured breaks down.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to distribution technique fields, and in particular to a kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method.
Background technique
In recent years, with the fast development of power grid, thunderbolt frequently occurs, power distribution network as electric system and user it
Between most directly and crucial part, Lightning Disaster have become the main harm of China's power distribution network safe and reliable operation.
Currently, lightning fault predicting means has: some is based on limited serious thunderstorm event and relevant weather data and electricity
Net fault data establishes electric network fault rate regression model using Mathematical Statistics Analysis, but thunderstorm event is less, time interval compared with
Long, real-time is poor, has significant limitations to prediction；Only consideration thunder and lightning variation tendency does not consider intensity of lightning current to distribution to some
The influence of route thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of malfunction；Some lightning fault probabilistic forecastings only consider single Lightning Disaster, but real
In border, thunder and lightning is frequently accompanied by rainfall while occurring, and the raindrop in discharging gap can make the air gap enhanced intensity and occur abnormal
Become, directly affects the size of lightning flash over probability；Some the case where only consideration thunder and lightning causes distribution line to break down, do not consider
The influence of route aging effect itself.
Therefore it realizes the forecast to power distribution network thunder and lightning subregion, consider that intensity of lightning current, rainfall intensity and route itself are old
The many-sided of change influences, and then predicts lightning fault probability, resists Lightning Disaster to enhancing power distribution network and is of great significance.
Summary of the invention
In view of the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention proposes a kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method.
The technical scheme is that
A kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method, comprising the following steps:
Step 1: based on it is more when the forecast of time thunder and lightning range determine the thunder and lightning subregion in region to be measured, and determine lower time each thunder for the moment
The position of electric subregion and thunderbolt probability；
Step 1.1: thunder and lightning time of origin in region to be measured and place are counted according to lightning location system, according to its longitude and latitude into
Row region division obtains each thunderbolt close quarters；
Step 1.2: binary conversion treatment being carried out to thunderbolt close quarters, the thunderbolt close quarters after binary conversion treatment are used
Eight neighborhood edge following algorithm carries out shaping, obtains each thunder and lightning subregion, the thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when determining t；
Step 1.3: the Optimum Matching of secondary thunder and lightning subregion determines each thunder and lightning subregion t+ when by adjacent t-2, t-1, t
Thunder and lightning subregion secondary when secondary development track, i.e. t+1 when 1, according to the thunderbolt determine the probability of when t-2, t-1, t thunder and lightning subregion
The thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when t+1；
The thunderbolt of time thunder and lightning subregion is general when the thunderbolt determine the probability t+1 according to thunder and lightning subregion when t-2, t-1, t time
The formula of rate is as follows:
Wherein, t >=2, qt+1The thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion, q when for t+1tThe thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when for t.
Step 2: establishing power grid distribution line lightning fault comprehensive sub-areas model, the power grid distribution line lightning fault is comprehensive
Close partition model are as follows:
Wherein,For the thunder and lightning tripping probability that region feeder line section to be measured is secondary in t+1, h is the bar of region feeder line section to be measured
Tower number,Direct attack thunderbolt probability secondary when route t+1, P where the i-th base shaft towerirThe lightning stroke of route where the i-th base shaft tower
Trip probability,Thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening secondary when route t+1, P where the i-th base shaft towerigFor the i-th base shaft tower
Secondary thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability when the route t+1 of place；
Step 3: carrying out subregion as unit of each shaft tower of distribution line, determine effective coverage and thunder that each shaft tower is struck by lightning
The effective coverage of electric induction overvoltage, thus direct attack thunderbolt probability and each shaft tower institute secondary when route t+1 where obtaining each shaft tower
The secondary thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening in route t+1；
Step 3.1: determining the critical distance y of the lightning stroke conducting wire of each shaft tower in region to be measuredminiIt is dodged with each shaft tower induced voltage
The critical distance y of networkmaxi；
Step 3.2: the effective coverage and lightning induction mistake that each shaft tower is struck by lightning are determined according to shaft tower electric geometry method
The effective coverage of voltage；
The effective coverage that the shaft tower is struck by lightning be centered on shaft tower vertical distribution line direction apart from shaft tower ymini
In the range of 1/2 span of distribution line direction；
The effective coverage of the thunder and lightning induction voltage be centered on shaft tower vertical distribution line direction apart from shaft tower
ymaxiIn the range of 1/2 span of distribution line direction.
Step 3.3: the effective coverage of the effective coverage and thunder and lightning induction voltage be struck by lightning according to each shaft tower determines each
Thunder and lightning induction voltage secondary when attacking thunderbolt probability and each shaft tower place route t+1 directly secondary when route t+1 occurs where shaft tower
Probability.
Direct attack thunderbolt probability secondary when route t+1 where i-th base shaft towerCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, a 't+1T+1 Shi Cilei where time the i-th base shaft tower is struck by lightning when for t+1 effective coverage and the shaft tower
The overlapping area of electric subregion, at+1The area of thunder and lightning subregion where time the i-th base shaft tower when for t+1；
Thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening secondary when route t+1 where i-th base shaft towerCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, b 't+1The effective coverage of time the i-th base shaft tower thunder and lightning induction voltage and the t+1 where the shaft tower when for t+1
When time thunder and lightning subregion overlapping area.
Step 4: the thunderbolt tripping probability of route where obtaining shaft tower according to shaft tower electric geometry method utilizes and covers spy
Route counterattack tripping probability where Carlow method determines shaft tower, according to the thunderbolt of route where shaft tower tripping probability and shaft tower
The lightning stroke trip probability of route where each shaft tower of counterattack tripping determine the probability of place route；
Step 4.1: according to shaft tower electric geometry method, the thunderbolt rate of route where obtaining shaft tower；
The thunderbolt rate P of route where i-th base shaft toweriαCalculation formula is as follows:
Wherein,For thunder and lightning incidence angle, libThe shielding exposure of route where the i-th base shaft tower
The corresponding horizontal distance of arc, liaThe corresponding horizontal distance of earth-wire protection arc of route where the i-th base shaft tower；
Step 4.2: the thunderbolt of route trips general where obtaining shaft tower according to the thunderbolt rate of route where shaft tower
Rate；
The thunderbolt tripping probability P of route where i-th base shaft towerisCalculation formula is as follows:
Pis=η Piα；
Wherein, η is probability of sustained arc；
Step 4.3: the back flashover tripping probability of route where counting each shaft tower using monte carlo method simulation；
Step 4.4: the shaft tower of route where the thunderbolt tripping probability and shaft tower of route where shaft tower is struck back into tripping
Lightning stroke trip probability of the sum of the probability as route where the shaft tower, the lightning stroke trip probability of route where obtaining each shaft tower.
Step 5: the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route trips where determining shaft tower according to induced overvoltage maximum value on conducting wire
Probability obtains the thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate of shaft tower place route by constructing fuzzy mathematical model, to be considered
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where each shaft tower of intensity of lightning current；
Step 5.1: the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route is jumped where determining shaft tower according to induced overvoltage maximum value on conducting wire
Lock probability；
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability P (I of route where the shaft towermin) calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein,Insulator impulse sparkover voltage when for discharge probability being 50%, ImFor lightning stroke the earth
Amplitude of lightning current, hdFor overhead transmission line distance away the ground, S is horizontal distance of the lightning strike spot to overhead transmission line, IminTo cause insulator
The minimum lightning current of flashover；
Step 5.2: by constructing fuzzy mathematical model, using thunder and lightning excitation parameters and line span parameter as fuzzy mathematics
The input of model, using thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate as the output of fuzzy mathematical model, by thunder and lightning excitation parameters and route
Span parameter is combined, and sets up fuzzy control rule, using maximum membership degree method de-fuzzy, obtains thunder and lightning induction voltage
Failure rate；
Step 5.3: according to the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route where shaft tower tripping probability and thunder and lightning induction voltage failure
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where rate calculates each shaft tower for considering intensity of lightning current.
Step 6: by thunder secondary when attacking thunderbolt probability, each shaft tower place route t+1 directly secondary when route t+1 where each shaft tower
The lightning stroke trip probability of route where electric induction overvoltage probability of happening, each shaft tower and each shaft tower place for considering intensity of lightning current
Route thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability inputs power grid distribution line lightning fault comprehensive sub-areas model, obtains region feedback to be measured
The line segment thunder and lightning tripping probability secondary in t+1；
Step 7: by establishing distribution line temperature model, according to distribution line, active time determines that subsequent time is to be measured
Transient fault probability occurs for region feeder line section；
Step 8: establishing and consider that distribution line breaks down probability mould under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster
Type；
The distribution line probabilistic model that breaks down is as follows under the consideration ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster:
Wherein, Pt+1The probability that breaks down for being region feeder line section to be measured in t+1 time,For under region feeder line section to be measured
Transient fault probability occurs for one moment；
Step 9: by the thunder and lightning tripping probability and feeder line section subsequent time in region to be measured that region feeder line section to be measured is secondary in t+1
The input of transient fault probability occurs and considers that distribution line breaks down probability under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster
The probability that time region feeder line section to be measured breaks down when model prediction t+1.
Beneficial effects of the present invention:
The present invention proposes a kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method, and the present invention has very for China's lightening activity
Strong region carries out the division in thunder and lightning region to administrative region first, then carries out careful longitude and latitude to corresponding region and divide,
Reduce the workload of data mining, while also making lightning monitoring data apparent, accurately；In view of by intensity of lightning current size
Influence to power distribution network thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of malfunction takes into account, and constructs fuzzy mathematical model to lightning fault probability
It is analyzed, improves distribution line probability of malfunction reliability of operation and accuracy；Lightning fault probabilistic forecasting is generally only examined
Consider single Lightning Disaster, the influence by rain fall to insulator probability of sustained arc takes into account here, further increases thunder and lightning tripping
The precision of probabilistic forecasting；Route ageing failure itself is also to influence the very important key factor of Lightning Disaster probability of malfunction, will
The influence comprehensively considers in the prediction and calculation method of Lightning Disaster probability of malfunction；By either direct lightning strike is still in power distribution network
Inductive lightning cause thunder calamity trip phenomenon carry out comprehensive modeling, improve minefield prediction and transmission line caused by lightning strike probability it is accurate
Rate.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 2 is that lower time position of each thunder and lightning subregion and the process of thunderbolt probability for the moment are determined in the specific embodiment of the invention
Figure；
Fig. 3 is circular thunderbolt subregion recognition result figure in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 4 is time thunder and lightning subregion schematic diagram when determining each thunder and lightning subregion t+1 in the specific embodiment of the invention；
When Fig. 5 is direct attack thunderbolt probability and each shaft tower t+1 secondary when calculating each shaft tower t+1 in the specific embodiment of the invention
The flow chart of secondary thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening；
Fig. 6 is to lead to line insulation flashover block plan by thunder and lightning in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 7 is the effective of the effective coverage be struck by lightning of shaft tower and thunder and lightning induction voltage in the specific embodiment of the invention
Area's schematic diagram；
Fig. 8 is true according to shaft tower thunderbolt tripping probability and shaft tower counterattack tripping probability in the specific embodiment of the invention
The flow chart of the lightning stroke trip probability of fixed each shaft tower；
Fig. 9 is the electric geometry method of shaft tower in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Figure 10 is to determine to consider that each shaft tower thunder and lightning induction voltage of intensity of lightning current is jumped in the specific embodiment of the invention
The flow chart of lock probability；
Figure 11 is the subordinating degree function distribution map of thunder and lightning excitation parameters in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Figure 12 is the subordinating degree function distribution map of line span parameter in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Figure 13 is the subordinating degree function distribution map of thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Figure 14 is distribution line temperature model figure in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Figure 15 is lightning forecasting evaluation index curve in the specific embodiment of the invention.
Specific embodiment
The specific embodiment of the invention is described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawing.
A kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method, as shown in Figure 1, comprising the following steps:
Step 1: based on it is more when the forecast of time thunder and lightning range determine the thunder and lightning subregion in region to be measured, and determine lower time each thunder for the moment
The position of electric subregion and thunderbolt probability, as shown in Figure 2.
Step 1.1: thunder and lightning time of origin in region to be measured and place are counted according to lightning location system, according to its longitude and latitude into
Row region division obtains each thunderbolt close quarters.
In present embodiment, due to the uncertainty of thunder and lightning itself, so carrying out thunder and lightning first when studying lightning fault
Range forecast.Lightning monitoring network in China's is frequently with longitude and latitude subregion at present, but actually China's lightening activity is with very strong
Region, southeastern coastal areas thunder and lightning is multiple, and the Northwest is relatively fewer.So can be according to the thunder and lightning of meteorological department's observation for many years
Data take region division, then carry out careful longitude and latitude to corresponding region and divide, and reduce unnecessary workload.
Step 1.2: binaryzation (0-1) processing being carried out to thunderbolt close quarters, to the thunderbolt compact district after binary conversion treatment
Domain carries out shaping using eight neighborhood edge following algorithm, obtains each thunder and lightning subregion, the thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when determining t.
In present embodiment, binary conversion treatment is carried out to thunderbolt close quarters, to the thunderbolt compact district after binary conversion treatment
Domain carries out shaping using eight neighborhood edge following algorithm, obtains each thunder and lightning subregion, finally obtains circular thunderbolt subregion identification knot
Fruit figure, as shown in Figure 3.The latitude and longitude coordinates of time each thunder and lightning regional center (RC) point L are (x, y), radius r, t when t can be obtained by Fig. 3
When time thunder and lightning subregion thunderbolt probability qtCalculation formula such as formula (1) shown in:
Wherein, thunderbolt sum when n ' is t in time thunderbolt subregion, the thunderbolt sum of time administrative region to be measured when N ' is t.
Step 1.3: the Optimum Matching of secondary thunder and lightning subregion determines each thunder and lightning subregion t+ when by adjacent t-2, t-1, t
Thunder and lightning subregion secondary when secondary development track, i.e. t+1 when 1, according to the thunderbolt determine the probability of when t-2, t-1, t thunder and lightning subregion
The thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when t+1.
In present embodiment, in order to obtain optimal trajectory, secondary thunder and lightning subregion is optimal when by adjacent t-2, t-1, t
Matching, it is assumed that shorter motion track has a possibility that bigger, the similar 2 thunder and lightning by stages of area between 2 thunder and lightning subregions
Motion track there is a possibility that bigger, thunder and lightning when development track, i.e. t+1 when determining each thunder and lightning subregion t+1 time time
Subregion is as shown in Figure 4.
According to the thunderbolt probability of when the thunderbolt determine the probability t+1 of when t-2, t-1, t thunder and lightning subregion thunder and lightning subregion
Shown in formula such as formula (2):
Wherein, t >=2, qt+1The thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion, q when for t+1tThe thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when for t.
Step 2: establishing power grid distribution line lightning fault comprehensive sub-areas model.
In present embodiment, it is believed that be series relationship, then any bar on route between the shaft tower on same distribution line
Then region feeder line section to be measured will break down for tower failure, then the probability of malfunction of route is equal to the probability of malfunction of the shaft tower.
If region feeder line section to be measured has h shaft tower.
Shown in power grid distribution line lightning fault comprehensive sub-areas model such as formula (3):
Wherein,For the thunder and lightning tripping probability that region feeder line section to be measured is secondary in t+1, h is the bar of region feeder line section to be measured
Tower number,Direct attack thunderbolt probability secondary when route t+1, P where the i-th base shaft towerirThe lightning stroke of route where the i-th base shaft tower
Trip probability,Thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening secondary when route t+1, P where the i-th base shaft towerigFor the i-th base shaft tower
Secondary thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability when the route t+1 of place.
Step 3: carrying out subregion as unit of each shaft tower of distribution line, determine effective coverage and thunder that each shaft tower is struck by lightning
The effective coverage of electric induction overvoltage, thus direct attack thunderbolt probability and each shaft tower institute secondary when route t+1 where obtaining each shaft tower
The secondary thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening in route t+1, as shown in Figure 5.
Step 3.1: determining the critical distance y of the lightning stroke conducting wire of each shaft tower in region to be measuredminiIt is dodged with each shaft tower induced voltage
The critical distance y of networkmaxi。
In present embodiment, cause line insulation flashover subregion as shown in Figure 6 by thunder and lightning.
The critical distance y of the lightning stroke conducting wire of i-th base shaft towerminiCalculation formula such as formula (4) shown in:
Wherein,For thunder and lightning to the earth hit away from,For lightning conducter hit away from,
ImFor the amplitude of lightning current for the earth that is struck by lightning, hdFor overhead transmission line distance away the ground.
The critical distance y of the induced voltage flashover of i-th base shaft towermaxiCalculation formula such as formula (5) shown in:
Wherein, it has been more than 1.5 times of critical flashover voltages that CFO, which is line influence overvoltage,.
Step 3.2: the effective coverage and lightning induction mistake that each shaft tower is struck by lightning are determined according to shaft tower electric geometry method
The effective coverage of voltage.
In present embodiment, effective coverage such as Fig. 7 institute of effective coverage and thunder and lightning induction voltage that shaft tower is struck by lightning
Show.The effective coverage that shaft tower is struck by lightning be centered on shaft tower vertical distribution line direction apart from shaft tower yminiAnd distribution line
In the range of 1/2 span of direction.The effective coverage of thunder and lightning induction voltage be centered on shaft tower vertical distribution line direction away from
From shaft tower ymaxiIn the range of 1/2 span of distribution line direction.
Step 3.3: the effective coverage of the effective coverage and thunder and lightning induction voltage be struck by lightning according to each shaft tower determines each
Thunder and lightning induction voltage secondary when attacking thunderbolt probability and each shaft tower place route t+1 directly secondary when route t+1 occurs where shaft tower
Probability.
In present embodiment, the calculation formula such as formula (6) of direct attack thunderbolt probability secondary when route t+1 where the i-th base shaft tower
It is shown:
Wherein, a 't+1T+1 Shi Cilei where time the i-th base shaft tower is struck by lightning when for t+1 effective coverage and the shaft tower
The overlapping area of electric subregion, at+1The area of thunder and lightning subregion where time the i-th base shaft tower when for t+1.
Calculation formula such as formula (7) institute of thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening secondary when route t+1 where i-th base shaft tower
Show:
Wherein, b 't+1The effective coverage of time the i-th base shaft tower thunder and lightning induction voltage and the t+1 where the shaft tower when for t+1
When time thunder and lightning subregion overlapping area.
Step 4: the thunderbolt tripping probability of route where obtaining shaft tower according to shaft tower electric geometry method utilizes and covers spy
Route counterattack tripping probability where Carlow method determines shaft tower, according to the thunderbolt of route where shaft tower tripping probability and shaft tower
The lightning stroke trip probability of route where each shaft tower of counterattack tripping determine the probability of place route, as shown in Figure 8.
Step 4.1: according to shaft tower electric geometry method, the thunderbolt rate of route where obtaining shaft tower.
In present embodiment, the electric geometry method of shaft tower is as shown in figure 9, as shown in Figure 9, rcIt hits for conducting wire away from rsTo keep away
Thunder line is hit away from rgFor ground hit away from,For thunder and lightning incidence angle, the i.e. angle in lightning leader direction perpendicular to the ground, examine
Landform and influence of the thunder and lightning incident direction to distribution line risk of shielding failure, h are consideredsFor the height of lightning conducter, hcFor the height of conducting wire,
θ1It hits for critical conducting wire on shielding exposure arc away from rcWith the angle of horizontal plane, θ2It hits for shielding exposure arc lower critical conducting wire away from rc *With
The angle of horizontal plane, θ are earth-wire protection angle.
The thunderbolt rate P of route where i-th base shaft toweriαShown in calculation formula such as formula (8):
Wherein,For thunder and lightning incidence angle, lib=B ' C=rc(cosθ1-cosθ2) be
The corresponding horizontal distance of shielding exposure arc of route where i-th base shaft tower, lia=OC=rccosθ1+2(hs-hc) tan θ be i-th
The corresponding horizontal distance of earth-wire protection arc of route where base shaft tower.
Step 4.2: the thunderbolt of route trips general where obtaining shaft tower according to the thunderbolt rate of route where shaft tower
Rate.
In present embodiment, the thunderbolt tripping probability P of route where the i-th base shaft towerisCalculation formula such as formula (9) institute
Show:
Pis=η Piα (9)
Wherein, η is probability of sustained arc.
Step 4.3: the back flashover tripping probability of route where counting each shaft tower using monte carlo method simulation.
Step 4.3.1: number realization is set as N, defines ykIndicate kth time simulation as a result, if counterattack causes flashover,
yk=1, otherwise yk=0.
Step 4.3.2: one [0,1] equally distributed random number r is randomly generated1If r1> Piα, then follow the steps
4.3.3, no to then follow the steps 4.3.4.
Step 4.3.3: one [0,1] equally distributed random number r is randomly generated2If r2< g, g are to hit bar rate, then occur
Strike back yk=1, execute step 4.3.5, otherwise, yk=0, execute step 4.3.5.
Step 4.3.4: judging whether present day analog number reaches number realization N, if so, step 4.3.5 is executed, otherwise,
Return step 4.3.2,
Step 4.3.5: statistics counterattack trip-out rate obtains the progressive statistic estimated value ξ of counterattack trip-out rate, obtains counterattack tripping
Probability Pic。
In present embodiment, the progressive statistic estimated value ξ such as formula (10) for striking back trip-out rate is shown:
Counterattack tripping probability PicAs shown in formula (11):
Pic=η ξ (11)
Wherein, η is probability of sustained arc.According to test and operating experience, probability of sustained arc η=4.5E0.75- 14 (%), wherein E is insulation
Average running voltage (virtual value) gradient of substring, kV/m, raindrop can make the air gap enhanced intensity and be distorted, and increase E
Greatly, to improve probability of sustained arc.
Generally all along with rainfall while Lightning Disaster occurs, and rainfall can directly increase lightning fault probability.First
Rainwater dielectric constant is much larger than the dielectric constant of air, and the raindrop in discharging gap can make the air gap enhanced intensity and occur abnormal
Become, this is conducive to initiating electron and collapses development and generation with streamer；And the aggregation of water droplet effectively reduces the exhausted of the air gap
Edge distance, so leading to the reduction of gap flashover voltage.
In addition, the rainfall small for intensity, humidity account for main influence, as hydrone increases, electronics is by Water Molecular Adsorption
Probability also increase, free electron number in spatial joint clearance is reduced, to inhibit the development of electric discharge, so the increase of humidity can make
The Power Flashover Voltage of the air gap rises.
However, thunder and lightning is a kind of cloud electric discharge phenomena, Lightning Disaster is often with heavy showers, so taken together by humidity
Influence much smaller than rainwater make the air gap field strength distort influence.
Step 4.4: the shaft tower of route where the thunderbolt tripping probability and shaft tower of route where shaft tower is struck back into tripping
Lightning stroke trip probability of the sum of the probability as route where the shaft tower, the lightning stroke trip probability of route where obtaining each shaft tower.
In present embodiment, the lightning stroke trip probability P of route where the i-th base shaft towerirFormula such as formula (12) shown in:
Pir=Pic+Pis (12)
Step 5: the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route trips where determining shaft tower according to induced overvoltage maximum value on conducting wire
Probability obtains the thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate of shaft tower place route by constructing fuzzy mathematical model, to be considered
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where each shaft tower of intensity of lightning current, as shown in Figure 10.
Step 5.1: the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route is jumped where determining shaft tower according to induced overvoltage maximum value on conducting wire
Lock probability.
In present embodiment, thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability P (Imin) shown in calculation formula such as formula (13):
Wherein,Insulator impulse sparkover voltage when for discharge probability being 50%, the induction on conducting wire
Overvoltage, ImFor the amplitude of lightning current for the earth that is struck by lightning, hdFor overhead transmission line distance away the ground, S is level of the lightning strike spot to overhead transmission line
Distance, IminFor the minimum lightning current for causing insulator arc-over.
In present embodiment, the distribution line across city is typically subject to the masking of neighbouring high building or tree, so
Distribution line thunder and lightning trip accident is mostly due to caused by the induced overvoltage generated when object near being struck by lightning.Lightning induction is excessively electric
The main component of pressure is generated during Fields of Lightning Return Stroke, i.e., while descending leader develops, the generation of earth bulge object heads on
Guide is developed upwards, and strong electric discharge occurs for the two, and the positive and negative charge in respective guide neutralizes.Thunder and lightning induction voltage packet
Two components of electrostatic induction and electromagnetic induction are included, since main discharge channel and conducting wire are vertical, mutual inductance is small, and electromagnetic induction is weak, so
Electrostatic component plays a major role.So according to relevant theory analysis and experimental measurements, when lightning strike spot is at a distance from route
Insulator impulse sparkover voltage U when making to generate thunder and lightning induction voltage on conducting wire, when discharge probability is 50%50%Equal to conducting wire
On induced overvoltage maximum value UmaxAs shown in formula (14):
Step 5.2: by constructing fuzzy mathematical model, using thunder and lightning excitation parameters and line span parameter as fuzzy mathematics
The input of model, using thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate as the output of fuzzy mathematical model, by thunder and lightning excitation parameters and route
Span parameter is combined, and sets up fuzzy control rule, using maximum membership degree method de-fuzzy, obtains thunder and lightning induction voltage
Failure rate.
In present embodiment, on distribution line induced overvoltage probability of malfunction in addition to line levels, route and lightning strike spot
Between outside distance dependent, it is also related with amplitude of lightning current.And the factor for influencing amplitude of lightning current further relates to many factors, and thunder and lightning
Lack available model between stream amplitude and line failure rate again.By constructing fuzzy mathematical model, by thunder and lightning excitation parameters El
=avatasacWith line span parameter LpInput as fuzzy mathematical model.
Wherein, avIt, can be by being mounted on high mountain or high tower for lightning current echo wave speed coefficient, i.e. lightning current wave shape parameter
Lightning current waveform monitoring device measures.With lightning current echo wave speed 1.3 × 108On the basis of m/s (coefficient 1), echo propagates speed
Rate is bigger, and from lightning strike spot, most nearby voltage reaches peak value fastlyer, and amplitude of lightning current is bigger, the biggish height-regulating thunder and lightning of echo wave speed
It flows back to wave velocity coefficient (1~1.2), the lesser reduction lightning current echo wave speed coefficient (0.8~1) of echo wave speed.
at, it is time coefficient before lightning current wave, can be measured by lightning current waveform monitoring device.With lightning current wave front time
On the basis of 0.5 μ s (coefficient 1), the longer reduction wave front time coefficient (0.6~1) of wave front time, when wave front time is less than 0.5
When μ s, amplitude of lightning current is larger, and coefficient is 1.Wave front time is shorter, and from lightning strike spot, most nearby voltage reaches peak value fastlyer, and
Amplitude of lightning current is bigger.
aeFor earth conductivity coefficient, asFor surrounding enviroment screening factor.With plains region, greatly be perfact conductor and nothing
It is small to earth conductivity, there is obvious induction to make the development of thunder and lightning descending leader on the basis of the environment of screen (coefficient 1)
Earth conductivity coefficient (1~1.3) is turned up in landform, big to earth conductivity, have obvious obstruction to thunder and lightning descending leader
The landform of effect reduces earth conductivity coefficient (0.8~1)；To open, unshielded object, be conducive to thunder and lightning induction voltage shape
At environment be turned up coefficient (1~2), to have tree and building etc. be unfavorable for thunder and lightning induction voltage formation environment turn down coefficient
(0.5~1).
Cover parameter area using 6 fuzzy subsets to thunder and lightning excitation parameters: thunder and lightning motivates very little (Eys), thunder and lightning excitation it is small
(Es), thunder and lightning motivate medium (Em), thunder and lightning motivate big (Ebl), the very big (E of thunder and lightning excitationvl), the very big (E of thunder and lightning excitationel), it is subordinate to
The distribution of category degree function is as shown in figure 11.
Cover the range of line span coefficient: the small (L of line parameter circuit value with 4 fuzzy subsets to line span parameters), route
Medium (the L of parameterm), the big (L of line parameter circuit valuel), the very big (L of line parameter circuit valuevl), the distribution of subordinating degree function is as shown in figure 12.
Its codomain [0,1]: very small (ES), very little is covered with 7 fuzzy subsets to thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate
(VS), small (S), in (M), big (L), very big (VL), very big (EL).The distribution of its subordinating degree function is as shown in figure 13.
According to the analysis influenced about different factors on thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of malfunction, by thunder and lightning excitation parameters and line
Road span parameter is combined, and sets up 24 fuzzy control rules, can set up 24 fuzzy control rules, as shown in table 1:
1 fuzzy control rule of table
Using maximum membership degree method de-fuzzy, thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate μ is obtained, fuzzy membership function is drawn
Point need in later practical application constantly examine and it is perfect.
Step 5.3: according to the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route where shaft tower tripping probability and thunder and lightning induction voltage failure
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where rate calculates each shaft tower for considering intensity of lightning current.
In present embodiment, the thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of malfunction P of route where shaft tower after intensity of lightning current is consideredigSuch as
Shown in formula (15):
Pig=μ P (Imin) (15)
Step 6: by thunder secondary when attacking thunderbolt probability, each shaft tower place route t+1 directly secondary when route t+1 where each shaft tower
The lightning stroke trip probability of route where electric induction overvoltage probability of happening, each shaft tower and each shaft tower place for considering intensity of lightning current
Route thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability inputs power grid distribution line lightning fault comprehensive sub-areas model, obtains region feedback to be measured
The line segment thunder and lightning tripping probability secondary in t+1.
Step 7: by establishing distribution line temperature model, according to distribution line, active time determines that subsequent time is to be measured
Transient fault probability occurs for region feeder line section.
In present embodiment, distribution line is with the length of active time, and ageing failure situation is also different, high annealing
The main reason for being its life loss.As it can be seen that conductor temperature directly affects conducting wire active time.And route itself meets electric current
The influence that the heat and ambient temperature of generation change to route itself is the most significant, so establishing distribution as shown in figure 14
Line temperature model.
In Figure 14: n is wire quality, CPHold for wire specific heat, J/kg DEG C；I is current in wire, A, θlFor route operation
Temperature, DEG C；θ0For conducting wire initial temperature, DEG C；θaFor environment temperature, DEG C；Q is the summation of heat during distribution line is on active service；Qr
For the heat of radiation transmitting, W/m；T is route active time.
Therefore by a large amount of experiment and data analysis, it is known that the life expectancy L of distribution line1During being on active service with route
Heat exchange and route running temperature relationship such as formula (16) shown in:
L1=Qe-λθ (16)
Wherein, λ is constant relevant to conductor quality and material properties.
Obtain through conducting wire accelerating lifetime testing or fail data record estimation: distribution line ageing process meets Weibull point
Cloth, it is only related with form parameter β；ηlFor scale parameter (characteristics life parameter), η is enabled herel=L1, then it is tired to obtain distribution line
Product probability-distribution function Fla(1|θl) as shown in formula (17):
According to the definition of conditional probability, distribution line is in θlAt a temperature of be on active service after the t time, occur instantaneously at the t+1 moment
The probability of failureAs shown in formula (18):
Step 8: establishing and consider that distribution line breaks down probability mould under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster
Type.
In present embodiment, consider that distribution line breaks down probability under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster
Shown in model such as formula (19):
Wherein, Pt+1The probability that breaks down for being region feeder line section to be measured in t+1 time,For under region feeder line section to be measured
Transient fault probability occurs for one moment.
In present embodiment, since lightning monitoring information is that timesharing time obtains, it is contemplated that ageing failure and amendment distribution
The secondary probability that breaks down when probability of malfunction is t+1 occurs under route Lightning Disaster.
Step 9: by the thunder and lightning tripping probability and feeder line section subsequent time in region to be measured that region feeder line section to be measured is secondary in t+1
The input of transient fault probability occurs and considers that distribution line breaks down probability under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster
The probability that time region feeder line section to be measured breaks down when model prediction t+1.
In present embodiment, in order to assess thunder and lightning subregion accuracy of the forecast, using minefield area recall rate index RPOD、
Minefield area false alarm rate index RFARWith thunderbolt number recall rate index RLDP, as shown in formula (20)-(22):
Wherein, E is the region area to be measured of forecast, A*For practical thunder and lightning region area,For actual non-thunder and lightning region
Area；E∩A*To forecast accurate thunder and lightning region area,Accidentally to forecast thunder and lightning region area, Pt+1To forecast thunderbolt probability,
P is practical thunderbolt probability, (E ∩ A*)min{Pt+1, P } and it is to forecast successful thunderbolt number, AP is the thunderbolt number in practical thunder and lightning region.
In present embodiment, a thunder and lightning occurrence scope is forecast using the every 1min of the method for the present invention, and it is corresponding to calculate it
Index, the curve that each index changes over time are as shown in figure 15.It can be seen that in entire forecasting process from curvilinear motion,
Minefield area recall rate RPODReach 70% or more, minefield area false alarm rate RFARLower than 30%, thunderbolt number recall rate RLDPSubstantially
It is all larger than 75%, to demonstrate the minefield forecasting procedure accuracy rate with higher that the method for the present invention is proposed.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method, which comprises the following steps:
Step 1: based on it is more when the forecast of time thunder and lightning range determine the thunder and lightning subregion in region to be measured, and determine lower time each thunder and lightning point for the moment
The position in area and thunderbolt probability；
Step 2: establishing power grid distribution line lightning fault comprehensive sub-areas model, the power grid distribution line lightning fault is comprehensive to divide
Section model are as follows:
Wherein,For the thunder and lightning tripping probability that region feeder line section to be measured is secondary in t+1, h is the shaft tower of region feeder line section to be measured
Number,Direct attack thunderbolt probability secondary when route t+1, P where the i-th base shaft towerirThe lightning stroke of route is jumped where the i-th base shaft tower
Lock probability,Thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening secondary when route t+1, P where the i-th base shaft towerigFor the i-th base shaft tower institute
The secondary thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability in route t+1；
Step 3: carrying out subregion as unit of each shaft tower of distribution line, determine effective coverage and thunder and lightning sense that each shaft tower is struck by lightning
The effective coverage of overvoltage is answered, so that direct attack thunderbolt probability secondary when route t+1 where obtaining each shaft tower and each shaft tower institute are online
Secondary thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening when the t+1 of road；
Step 4: the thunderbolt tripping probability of route where obtaining shaft tower according to shaft tower electric geometry method utilizes Monte Carlo
Route counterattack tripping probability where method determines shaft tower, according to where the thunderbolt of route where shaft tower tripping probability and shaft tower
The lightning stroke trip probability of route where each shaft tower of counterattack tripping determine the probability of route；
Step 5: the thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where determining shaft tower according to induced overvoltage maximum value on conducting wire,
The thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate of shaft tower place route is obtained by constructing fuzzy mathematical model, to obtain considering lightning current
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where each shaft tower of intensity；
Step 6: by thunder and lightning sense secondary when attacking thunderbolt probability, each shaft tower place route t+1 directly secondary when route t+1 where each shaft tower
The lightning stroke trip probability of route where answering overvoltage probability of happening, each shaft tower and each shaft tower place route for considering intensity of lightning current
Thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability inputs power grid distribution line lightning fault comprehensive sub-areas model, obtains region feeder line section to be measured
The secondary thunder and lightning tripping probability in t+1；
Step 7: by establishing distribution line temperature model, according to distribution line, active time determines subsequent time region to be measured
Transient fault probability occurs for feeder line section；
Step 8: establishing and consider that distribution line breaks down probabilistic model under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster；
The distribution line probabilistic model that breaks down is as follows under the consideration ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster:
Wherein, Pt+1The probability that breaks down for being region feeder line section to be measured in t+1 time,For a period of time under region feeder line section to be measured
It carves and transient fault probability occurs；
Step 9: the region feeder line section to be measured thunder and lightning tripping probability secondary in t+1 and feeder line section subsequent time in region to be measured are occurred
The input of transient fault probability considers that distribution line breaks down probabilistic model under ageing failure and amendment distribution line Lightning Disaster
Predict the probability that time region feeder line section to be measured breaks down when t+1.
2. power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that step 1 packet
Include following steps:
Step 1.1: thunder and lightning time of origin in region to be measured and place being counted according to lightning location system, area is carried out according to its longitude and latitude
Domain divides, and obtains each thunderbolt close quarters；
Step 1.2: binary conversion treatment is carried out to thunderbolt close quarters, it is adjacent using eight to the thunderbolt close quarters after binary conversion treatment
Domain edge following algorithm carries out shaping, obtains each thunder and lightning subregion, the thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when determining t；
Step 1.3: when the Optimum Matching of secondary thunder and lightning subregion determines each thunder and lightning subregion t+1 when by adjacent t-2, t-1, t
Thunder and lightning subregion when secondary development track, i.e. t+1 time, according to the thunderbolt determine the probability t+1 of when t-2, t-1, t thunder and lightning subregion
When time thunder and lightning subregion thunderbolt probability；
The thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when the thunderbolt determine the probability t+1 according to thunder and lightning subregion when t-2, t-1, t time
Formula is as follows:
Wherein, t >=2, qt+1The thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion, q when for t+1tThe thunderbolt probability of time thunder and lightning subregion when for t.
3. power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that step 3 packet
Include following steps:
Step 3.1: determining the critical distance y of the lightning stroke conducting wire of each shaft tower in region to be measuredminiWith facing for each shaft tower induced voltage flashover
Boundary distance ymaxi；
Step 3.2: the effective coverage and thunder and lightning induction voltage that each shaft tower is struck by lightning are determined according to shaft tower electric geometry method
Effective coverage；
Step 3.3: the effective coverage of the effective coverage and thunder and lightning induction voltage be struck by lightning according to each shaft tower determines each shaft tower
Thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening secondary when route t+1 where secondary direct attack thunderbolt probability and each shaft tower when the route t+1 of place.
4. power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that step 4 packet
Include following steps:
Step 4.1: according to shaft tower electric geometry method, the thunderbolt rate of route where obtaining shaft tower；
The thunderbolt rate P of route where i-th base shaft toweriαCalculation formula is as follows:
Wherein,For thunder and lightning incidence angle, libThe shielding exposure arc pair of route where the i-th base shaft tower
The horizontal distance answered, liaThe corresponding horizontal distance of earth-wire protection arc of route where the i-th base shaft tower；
Step 4.2: the thunderbolt tripping probability of route where obtaining shaft tower according to the thunderbolt rate of route where shaft tower；
The thunderbolt tripping probability P of route where i-th base shaft towerisCalculation formula is as follows:
Pis=η Piα；
Wherein, η is probability of sustained arc；
Step 4.3: the back flashover tripping probability of route where counting each shaft tower using monte carlo method simulation；
Step 4.4: by the shaft tower counterattack tripping probability of route where the thunderbolt tripping probability and shaft tower of route where shaft tower
The sum of lightning stroke trip probability as route where the shaft tower, the lightning stroke trip probability of route where obtaining each shaft tower.
5. power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that step 5 packet
Include following steps:
Step 5.1: the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route trips general where determining shaft tower according to induced overvoltage maximum value on conducting wire
Rate；
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability P (I of route where the shaft towermin) calculation formula is as follows:
Wherein,Insulator impulse sparkover voltage when for discharge probability being 50%, ImFor the thunder and lightning for the earth that is struck by lightning
Flow amplitude, hdFor overhead transmission line distance away the ground, S is horizontal distance of the lightning strike spot to overhead transmission line, IminTo cause insulator arc-over
Minimum lightning current；
Step 5.2: by constructing fuzzy mathematical model, using thunder and lightning excitation parameters and line span parameter as fuzzy mathematical model
Input, using thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate as the output of fuzzy mathematical model, by thunder and lightning excitation parameters and line span
Parameter is combined, and sets up fuzzy control rule, using maximum membership degree method de-fuzzy, obtains thunder and lightning induction voltage failure
Rate；
Step 5.3: according to the thunder and lightning induction voltage of route where shaft tower tripping probability and thunder and lightning induction voltage failure rate meter
The thunder and lightning induction voltage tripping probability of route where calculating each shaft tower for considering intensity of lightning current.
6. power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that thunder occurs for the shaft tower
The effective coverage hit be centered on shaft tower vertical distribution line direction apart from shaft tower yminiWith 1/2 span of distribution line direction
In range；
The effective coverage of the thunder and lightning induction voltage be centered on shaft tower vertical distribution line direction apart from shaft tower ymaxiWith match
In the range of 1/2 span of electric line direction.
7. power distribution network Lightning Disaster failure prediction method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that i-th base shaft tower
Secondary direct attack thunderbolt probability when the route t+1 of placeCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, a 't+1Time thunder and lightning divides when t+1 where time the i-th base shaft tower is struck by lightning when for t+1 effective coverage and the shaft tower
The overlapping area in area, at+1The area of thunder and lightning subregion where time the i-th base shaft tower when for t+1；
Thunder and lightning induction voltage probability of happening secondary when route t+1 where i-th base shaft towerCalculation formula are as follows:
Wherein, b 't+1The effective coverage of time the i-th base shaft tower thunder and lightning induction voltage and when t+1 where the shaft tower time when for t+1
The overlapping area of thunder and lightning subregion.
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| CN112365038A (en) * | 2020-10-30 | 2021-02-12 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Distribution line lightning stroke tripping probability evaluation method and system |
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