CN105488308A - Multi-scale comprehensive analysis method for influence of disasters on electrical grid - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a multi-scale comprehensive analysis method for influence of disasters on an electrical grid. According to the method, a multilevel evaluation system for the influence of the disasters on the electrical grid is established on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process, the total electrical grid situation considering a disaster is analyzed firstly, the type of the disaster affecting an electrical power system and reliability indexes of the electrical power system affected by the disaster are determined, then distribution characters of influence of the disaster on the electrical grid are researched from different angles such as time, space, a consequence, a voltage class, component equipment and the like on the basis of the reliability indexes, a regional transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate considering different voltage class weights is used for quantitative analysis of the severity of the influence of the natural disaster on the electrical grid, finally, the distribution characters of different disasters are sorted and summarized, and disaster prevention focal points are determined. According to the analysis method, multiple influence factors of the disasters on the electrical grid are considered, the influence capacity of various natural disasters on the electrical grid can be analyzed and compared comprehensively, and the method has very high comprehensiveness and objectivity.

Description

A kind of disaster affects the multi-scale generalization analytical approach of electrical network

Technical field

The invention belongs to Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System technical field, be specifically related to the multi-scale generalization analytical approach that a kind of disaster affects electrical network.

Background technology

In recent years, global extreme climate change causes Disaster Event showed increased, and the frequent of Disaster Event adds the difficulty controlling power network safety operation, also has higher requirement to electrical network reliable power supply.The disaster that China affects electric system has the features such as diversity, frequency and regionality, in order to strengthen the ability of electrical network reply catastrophe, and then set up disaster alarm mechanism, the characteristics such as the spatial and temporal distributions of electric network influencing should be studied targetedly and be deployed troops on garrison duty according to disaster.

At present, disaster mainly concentrates on the statistics and analysis affecting consequence on the research of effect on power system.In concrete research process, the method is only confined to cause the consequence of electric network fault and the order of severity to analyze to disaster, deeply do not consider other factors such as the electric pressure of the time response of disaster, spatial character and transmission line of electricity, be difficult to carry out comprehensive objective appraisal for disaster to the impact of electric system, have larger limitation.

Therefore, the characteristic information how affecting electrical network to disaster carries out the comprehensive analysis of Multi hiberarchy and multi scale, multi objective, comprehensively and objectively reflects that disaster is to the rule of effect on power system, significant for the anti-disaster ability improving electrical network.

Summary of the invention

The present invention is directed to the deficiencies in the prior art, propose the multi-scale generalization analytical approach that a kind of disaster affects electrical network.

This analysis method establishes disaster based on analytical hierarchy process affects electrical network mutiple-stage model system, first to considering that the electrical network general status of disaster is analyzed, determine the reliability index that the disaster-stricken type of electric system and disaster affect electric system, afterwards based on above-mentioned reliability index, from the time, space, consequence, electric pressure, the different angles such as component equipment are set out, research disaster affects the distribution character of electrical network, then adopt and consider that the region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate of different electric pressure weight carries out quantitative analysis to the order of severity of Effect of Natural Disaster electrical network, finally the distribution character of different disaster sorted and sum up, determine the strick precaution emphasis of disaster.

A kind of disaster affects the multi-scale generalization analytical approach of electrical network, it is characterized in that, based on time, space, consequence, electric pressure, component equipment 5 yardsticks, the distribution character of electrical network is affected on disaster and the order of severity carries out quantitative analysis, specifically comprises the following steps:

Step 1, determines to affect the thunder and lightning of electrical network, icing, filth, bird pest, strong wind five major casualty types and evaluates tripping operation number of times, unplanned outage number of times, trip-out rate, unplanned outage rate, reclosing success ratio five reliability indexs that disaster affects electrical network degree; Specifically:

Index one: definition tripping operation times N _tj () represents, wherein disaster j causes the number of times of electrical network tripping operation, and its unit is secondary;

Index two: definition unplanned outage times N _nPO(j), wherein disaster j causes the number of times of electrical network tripping operation, and its unit is secondary;

Index three: definition trip-out rate R _t(j), based on following formula:

$R_T\left(j\right)=\frac{N_T\left(j\right)}{L}$

Wherein: L is the length of specific voltage grade transmission line of electricity, unit is hundred kms, R _tj trip-out rate that () is transmission line of electricity, unit is secondary/hundred kms, N _tj tripping operation number of times that () is transmission line of electricity;

Index four: definition unplanned outage rate R _nPO(j), based on following formula:

$R_{NPO}\left(j\right)=\frac{N_{NPO}\left(j\right)}{L}$

Wherein: L is the length of specific voltage grade transmission line of electricity, unit is hundred kms, R _nPOj () is unplanned outage rate, unit is secondary/hundred kms, N _nPOj unplanned outage number of times that () is transmission line of electricity;

Index five: definition reclosing success ratio R _rS(j), based on following formula:

$R_{RF}\left(j\right)=\frac{N_{NPO}\left(j\right)}{N_T\left(j\right)}\×100\%$

Wherein, R _rSj () is attached most importance to Closing fault rate, dimensionless; N _tj () is tripping operation number of times; N _nPOj () is the number of times of transmission facility unplanned outage.

Step 2, from time, space, consequence, electric pressure, component equipment 5 yardsticks, obtains the distribution character that disaster causes electric network fault; Comprise the following steps:

Step 2.1, disaster affects the time scale characteristic of electrical network:

According to tripping operation number of times and the unplanned outage number of times of monthly statistics disaster, obtain often kind of disaster variation tendency to the electric network influencing order of severity in a year; According to tripping operation number of times and the unplanned outage number of times of adding up disaster in recent years year, obtain often kind of disaster in recent years to the variation tendency of the electric network influencing order of severity.

Step 2.2, disaster affects the space scale characteristic of electrical network:

Divide according to regional power grid, statistics disaster causes grid event accumulative tripping operation number of times in recent years, and calculates at each regional power grid tripping operation number of times proportion different disaster, obtains the main disaster-stricken type of each regional power grid; The tripping operation number of times that year-by-year statistics disaster causes at regional power grid and proportion, obtain the annual change trend of the disaster-stricken type distributes of regional power grid.

Step 2.3, affects the consequence dimensional properties of electrical network from disaster:

Restart successfully according to DC line total head, secondary total head restarted successfully, step-down is restarted successfully, one pole forced outage, bipolar forced outage and tripping operation and unplanned outage, statistics disaster causes the consequence number of times of DC transmission system event, obtains the consequence type of the DC transmission system event that often kind of disaster the most easily causes; According to alternating current circuit tripping operation number of times, unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, statistics disaster causes the consequence number of times of AC transmission system event, obtains the consequence type of the AC transmission system event that often kind of disaster the most easily causes.

Step 2.4, disaster affects the electric pressure dimensional properties of electrical network:

According to voltage class of electric power system, year-by-year statistics disaster causes electrical network tripping operation number of times, and unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, obtain main disaster-stricken type and the annual change trend thereof of each electric pressure.

Step 2.5, disaster affects the component equipment dimensional properties of electrical network:

According to shaft tower and basis, wire and end ground wire, insulator, gold utensil and other four aspects, the number of times that year-by-year component voltage grade statistics disaster causes it to damage, obtains main disaster-stricken type and the annual change trend of often kind of power system component equipment.

Step 3, in conjunction with above-mentioned yardstick, adopts and considers that the region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate of different electric pressure weight carries out quantitative analysis to the order of severity of Effect of Natural Disaster electrical network;

Step 4, affects distribution character and the quantitative analysis result of electrical network based on disaster, determine that disaster affects the regularity of distribution of electrical network and takes precautions against emphasis.

Affect the multi-scale generalization analytical approach of electrical network in above-mentioned a kind of disaster, in described step 3, consider the region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate R of different electric pressure weight _cTj () represents, based on following formula:

$R_{CT}\left(j\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{k}{\Σ}}{\mathrm{\α}}_i{R}_{Ti}\left(j\right)$

Wherein: α _ifor the weight of this electric pressure circuit, economic transfer capability and the fed distance of this coefficient and transmission line of electricity are relevant; R _cTj () is the trip-out rate of this electric pressure transmission line of electricity, unit is secondary/hundred kms; R _cTj () is region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate, unit is secondary/hundred kms.

Therefore, tool of the present invention has the following advantages: 1. 5 Judging index that the present invention proposes not only consider the tripping operation of disaster initiating system, also contemplate the situation of unplanned outage and automatic reclosing, comprehensively analyze the influence factor of disaster to electrical network; 2. analytical approach proposed by the invention can consider that various disaster is on the impact of electrical network at time, space, electric pressure, grid event consequence and electric system original paper, has comprehensive and versatility; 3. analytical approach provided by the invention can obtain the distribution character of disaster, and the deployment of taking precautions against natural calamities of the specific aim for Operation of Electric Systems personnel provides effective suggestion.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is process flow diagram of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is the time scale performance plot that disaster that the present invention obtains affects electrical network.

Fig. 3 is the space scale performance plot that disaster that the present invention obtains affects electrical network.

Fig. 4 is the consequence dimensional properties figure that disaster that the present invention obtains affects electrical network.

Fig. 5 is the electric pressure dimensional properties figure that disaster that the present invention obtains affects electrical network.

Fig. 6 is the component equipment dimensional properties figure that disaster that the present invention obtains affects electrical network.

Fig. 7 is the region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate performance plot that disaster that the present invention obtains affects electrical network.

Embodiment

Here is the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and by reference to the accompanying drawings, is described further embody rule of the present invention.

Embodiment:

One, first, the Method And Principle that the present invention relates to is introduced:

The present invention specifically comprises the following steps:

Step 1, determines to affect five major casualty types such as thunder and lightning, icing, filth, bird pest, strong wind of electrical network and evaluates five reliability indexs such as tripping operation number of times, unplanned outage number of times, trip-out rate, unplanned outage rate, reclosing success ratio that disaster affects electrical network degree;

Disaster affects 5 kinds of reliability indexs of electrical network degree, and wherein trip number of times N _tj () represents, specifically refer to the number of times that disaster j causes electrical network tripping operation, and its unit is secondary;

Unplanned outage number of times N _nPOj () represents, specifically refer to the number of times that disaster j causes electrical network tripping operation, and its unit is secondary;

Trip-out rate R _tj () represents, based on following formula:

$R_T\left(j\right)=\frac{N_T\left(j\right)}{L}$

Wherein: L is the length of specific voltage grade transmission line of electricity, unit is hundred kms, R _tj trip-out rate that () is transmission line of electricity, unit is secondary/hundred kms, N _tj tripping operation number of times that () is transmission line of electricity;

Unplanned outage rate R _nPOj () represents, based on following formula:

$R_{NFO}\left(j\right)=\frac{N_{NPO}\left(j\right)}{L}$

Wherein: L is the length of specific voltage grade transmission line of electricity, unit is hundred kms, R _nPOj () is unplanned outage rate, unit is secondary/hundred kms, N _nPOj unplanned outage number of times that () is transmission line of electricity;

Reclosing success ratio R _rSj () represents, based on following formula:

$R_{RF}\left(j\right)=\frac{N_{NPO}\left(j\right)}{N_T\left(j\right)}\×100\%$

Wherein, R _rSj () is attached most importance to Closing fault rate, dimensionless; N _tj () is tripping operation number of times; N _nPOj () is the number of times of transmission facility unplanned outage.

Step 2, from 5 angles such as time, space, consequence, electric pressure, component equipments, distribution character disaster being caused to electric network fault is analyzed;

Step 2.1, disaster affects the time scale characteristic of electrical network:

According to tripping operation number of times and the unplanned outage number of times of monthly statistics disaster, obtain often kind of disaster variation tendency to the electric network influencing order of severity in a year; According to tripping operation number of times and the unplanned outage number of times of adding up disaster in recent years year, obtain often kind of disaster in recent years to the variation tendency of the electric network influencing order of severity.

Step 2.2, disaster affects the space scale characteristic of electrical network:

Divide according to regional power grid, statistics disaster causes grid event accumulative tripping operation number of times in recent years, and calculates at each regional power grid tripping operation number of times proportion different disaster, obtains the main disaster-stricken type of each regional power grid; The tripping operation number of times that year-by-year statistics disaster causes at regional power grid and proportion, obtain the annual change trend of the disaster-stricken type distributes of regional power grid.

Step 2.3, disaster affects the consequence dimensional properties of electrical network:

Restart successfully according to DC line total head, secondary total head restarted successfully, step-down is restarted successfully, one pole forced outage, bipolar forced outage and tripping operation and unplanned outage, statistics disaster causes the consequence number of times of DC transmission system event, obtains the consequence type of the DC transmission system event that often kind of disaster the most easily causes; According to alternating current circuit tripping operation number of times, unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, statistics disaster causes the consequence number of times of AC transmission system event, obtains the consequence type of the AC transmission system event that often kind of disaster the most easily causes.

Step 2.4, disaster affects the electric pressure dimensional properties of electrical network:

According to voltage class of electric power system, year-by-year statistics disaster causes electrical network tripping operation number of times, and unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, obtain main disaster-stricken type and the annual change trend thereof of each electric pressure.

Step 2.5, disaster affects the component equipment dimensional properties of electrical network:

According to shaft tower and basis, wire and end ground wire, insulator, gold utensil and other four aspects, the number of times that year-by-year component voltage grade statistics disaster causes it to damage, obtains main disaster-stricken type and the annual change trend of often kind of power system component equipment.

Step 3, considers the region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate R of different electric pressure weight _cTj () represents, based on following formula:

$R_{CT}\left(j\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{k}{\Σ}}{\mathrm{\α}}_i{R}_{Ti}\left(j\right)$

Wherein: α _ifor the weight of this electric pressure circuit, economic transfer capability and the fed distance of this coefficient and transmission line of electricity are relevant; R _cTj () is the trip-out rate of this electric pressure transmission line of electricity, unit is secondary/hundred kms; R _cTj () is region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate, unit is secondary/hundred kms.

Step 4, based on disaster to the distribution character of electric network influencing and region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate, determines the strick precaution emphasis of disaster.Based on the strick precaution emphasis of disaster distribution character, comprise the time response causing grid event according to disaster, determine the high-incidence season of various natural disaster every year and paid attention to, paying close attention to simultaneously and cause grid event disaster in rising trend in recent years; Cause the spatial character of grid event according to disaster, determine main disaster-stricken type and the variation tendency of each regional power grid, emphasis early warning and strick precaution are carried out for major casualty type and disaster in rising trend; Cause the electric pressure characteristic of grid event according to disaster, determine the main disaster-stricken type of each electric pressure and carry out guard key; Cause the electric system consequences analysis of grid event according to disaster, determine the major consequences type of the DC power transmission line that different disaster causes and transmission line of alternation current and carry out guard key; Cause the power system component analysis of grid event according to disaster, determine the main disaster-stricken type of different electric power element and carry out carrying out specific aim reinforcement and protection to element according to formation mechanism of disaster.

Two, be the concrete case adopting said method below:

According to certain electrical network 2005 to 2011 circuit operational reports, arrange out and comprise thunder and lightning, icing, bird pest, strong wind, filth, the tripping operation of mountain fire and other non-natural disasters and unplanned outage related data, from 5 angles such as time, space, consequence, electric pressure, component equipments, distribution character disaster being caused to electric network fault is analyzed.

Wherein according to the tripping operation number of times of monthly statistics disaster, obtain the time scale characteristic that disaster affects electrical network, as shown in Figure 2.

Divide according to regional power grid, statistics disaster causes grid event accumulative tripping operation number of times in recent years, obtains the space scale characteristic that disaster affects electrical network, as shown in Figure 3.

According to alternating current circuit tripping operation number of times, unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, statistics disaster causes the consequence number of times of AC transmission system event, obtains the consequence dimensional properties that disaster affects electrical network, as shown in Figure 4.

According to voltage class of electric power system, statistics disaster causes electrical network tripping operation number of times, and unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, obtain the electric pressure dimensional properties that disaster affects electrical network, as shown in Figure 5.

According to shaft tower and basis, wire and end ground wire, insulator, gold utensil and other four aspects, the number of times that year-by-year component voltage grade statistics disaster causes it to damage, obtains the component equipment dimensional properties that disaster affects electrical network, as shown in Figure 6.

With reference to larger 4 kinds, the alternating current circuit electric pressure of transmission line capability, and calculate weighted value according to their maximum delivery capacity and maximum delivery distance, as shown in table 1.

Table 1 each grade transmission line of electricity weight reference table

Calculate region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate according to this, as shown in table 2.The region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate that 2009 ~ 2011 years disasters impact this electrical network as shown in Figure 7.

The power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate of table 1 disaster range of influence electrical network

Specific embodiment described herein is only to the explanation for example of the present invention's spirit.Those skilled in the art can make various amendment or supplement or adopt similar mode to substitute to described specific embodiment, but can't depart from spirit of the present invention or surmount the scope that appended claims defines.

Claims (2)

1. a disaster affects the multi-scale generalization analytical approach of electrical network, it is characterized in that, based on time, space, consequence, electric pressure, component equipment 5 yardsticks, the distribution character of electrical network is affected on disaster and the order of severity carries out quantitative analysis, specifically comprises the following steps:

Step 1, determines to affect the thunder and lightning of electrical network, icing, filth, bird pest, strong wind five major casualty types and evaluates tripping operation number of times, unplanned outage number of times, trip-out rate, unplanned outage rate, reclosing success ratio five reliability indexs that disaster affects electrical network degree; Specifically:

Index one: definition tripping operation times N _tj () represents, wherein disaster j causes the number of times of electrical network tripping operation, and its unit is secondary;

Index two: definition unplanned outage times N _nPO(j), wherein disaster j causes the number of times of electrical network tripping operation, and its unit is secondary;

Index three: definition trip-out rate R _t(j), based on following formula:

$R_T\left(j\right)=\frac{N_T\left(j\right)}{L}$

Wherein: L is the length of specific voltage grade transmission line of electricity, unit is hundred kms, R _tj trip-out rate that () is transmission line of electricity, unit is secondary/hundred kms, N _tj tripping operation number of times that () is transmission line of electricity;

Index four: definition unplanned outage rate R _nPO(j), based on following formula:

$R_{NPO}\left(j\right)=\frac{N_{NPO}\left(j\right)}{L}$

Wherein: L is the length of specific voltage grade transmission line of electricity, unit is hundred kms, R _nPOj () is unplanned outage rate, unit is secondary/hundred kms, N _nPOj unplanned outage number of times that () is transmission line of electricity;

Index five: definition reclosing success ratio R _rS(j), based on following formula:

$R_{RF}\left(j\right)=\frac{N_{NPO}\left(j\right)}{N_T\left(j\right)}\×100\%$

Wherein, R _rSj () is attached most importance to Closing fault rate, dimensionless; N _tj () is tripping operation number of times; N _nPOj () is the number of times of transmission facility unplanned outage;

Step 2, from time, space, consequence, electric pressure, component equipment 5 yardsticks, obtains the distribution character that disaster causes electric network fault; Comprise the following steps:

Step 2.1, disaster affects the time scale characteristic of electrical network

According to tripping operation number of times and the unplanned outage number of times of monthly statistics disaster, obtain often kind of disaster variation tendency to the electric network influencing order of severity in a year; According to tripping operation number of times and the unplanned outage number of times of adding up disaster in recent years year, obtain often kind of disaster in recent years to the variation tendency of the electric network influencing order of severity;

Step 2.2, disaster affects the space scale characteristic of electrical network

Divide according to regional power grid, statistics disaster causes grid event accumulative tripping operation number of times in recent years, and calculates at each regional power grid tripping operation number of times proportion different disaster, obtains the main disaster-stricken type of each regional power grid; The tripping operation number of times that year-by-year statistics disaster causes at regional power grid and proportion, obtain the annual change trend of the disaster-stricken type distributes of regional power grid;

Step 2.3, affects the consequence dimensional properties of electrical network from disaster

Restart successfully according to DC line total head, secondary total head restarted successfully, step-down is restarted successfully, one pole forced outage, bipolar forced outage and tripping operation and unplanned outage, statistics disaster causes the consequence number of times of DC transmission system event, obtains the consequence type of the DC transmission system event that often kind of disaster the most easily causes; According to alternating current circuit tripping operation number of times, unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, statistics disaster causes the consequence number of times of AC transmission system event, obtains the consequence type of the AC transmission system event that often kind of disaster the most easily causes;

Step 2.4, disaster affects the electric pressure dimensional properties of electrical network

According to voltage class of electric power system, year-by-year statistics disaster causes electrical network tripping operation number of times, and unplanned outage number of times and reclosing success ratio, obtain main disaster-stricken type and the annual change trend thereof of each electric pressure;

Step 2.5, disaster affects the component equipment dimensional properties of electrical network

According to shaft tower and basis, wire and end ground wire, insulator, gold utensil and other four aspects, the number of times that year-by-year component voltage grade statistics disaster causes it to damage, obtains main disaster-stricken type and the annual change trend of often kind of power system component equipment;

Step 3, in conjunction with above-mentioned yardstick, adopts and considers that the region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate of different electric pressure weight carries out quantitative analysis to the order of severity of Effect of Natural Disaster electrical network;

Step 4, affects distribution character and the quantitative analysis result of electrical network based on disaster, determine that disaster affects the regularity of distribution of electrical network and takes precautions against emphasis.

2. a kind of disaster according to claim 1 affects the multi-scale generalization analytical approach of electrical network, it is characterized in that, considers the region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate R of different electric pressure weight in described step 3 _cTj () represents, based on following formula:

$R_{CT}\left(j\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{k}{\Σ}}{\mathrm{\α}}_i{R}_{Ti}\left(j\right)$

Wherein: α _ifor the weight of this electric pressure circuit, economic transfer capability and the fed distance of this coefficient and transmission line of electricity are relevant; R _cTj () is the trip-out rate of this electric pressure transmission line of electricity, unit is secondary/hundred kms; R _cTj () is region power transmission line comprehensive trip-out rate, unit is secondary/hundred kms.