CN105184657B - Power supply risk assessment method and system for power system - Google Patents

Power supply risk assessment method and system for power system Download PDF

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Publication number
CN105184657B
CN105184657B CN201510261404.0A CN201510261404A CN105184657B CN 105184657 B CN105184657 B CN 105184657B CN 201510261404 A CN201510261404 A CN 201510261404A CN 105184657 B CN105184657 B CN 105184657B
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power supply
risk
power
searching
equipment
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CN105184657A (en
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韩冰
张志昌
赵家庆
张令涛
钱科军
丁宏恩
刘艳
程大闯
李春
吕洋
田江
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd
Beijing Kedong Electric Power Control System Co Ltd
Suzhou Power Supply Co Ltd of Jiangsu Electric Power Co
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co Ltd
Beijing Kedong Electric Power Control System Co Ltd
Suzhou Power Supply Co Ltd of Jiangsu Electric Power Co
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Abstract

The invention discloses a power supply risk assessment method for an electric power system, which comprises the following steps: determining an element to be evaluated according to the operation requirement of the power system; searching the power supply paths of the elements, and storing all the power supply paths of the elements; searching the power supply range of the element, determining all devices in the power supply range of the element, and storing the devices; and (4) grading the risks of the elements according to all power supply paths and all devices within the power supply range of the elements to obtain the risk grades of the elements. The method can effectively improve the accuracy of risk grading. The risk assessment is established on the basis of a technical support system of the power grid dispatching system, the operation data of the power system is obtained in real time, and the real-time performance and the accuracy of the power supply risk assessment are further improved.

Description

Power supply risk assessment method and system for power system
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power supply risk assessment method for an electric power system, and also relates to a power supply risk assessment system for implementing the method, belonging to the technical field of electric power system scheduling.
Background
The purpose of the operational risk assessment of the power system is to assess the degree of potential impact of a disturbance event on the power system. The content of the operational risk assessment mainly includes two aspects of the probability and severity of the occurrence of the disturbance event. At present, a great deal of research is already carried out on the operation risk assessment of the power system, but most of the research is carried out by using a deterministic model and an analysis method thereof, and the method is suitable for the planning research of large-scale power transmission networks or off-line power networks. However, the distribution network is usually in a ring network structure and operates in an open loop manner, that is, a feeder line of the distribution network has a radial characteristic, network disconnection, load loss and the like are likely to be caused after a fault occurs, and deterministic analysis cannot consider various stochastic disturbances of the power system and completely describe uncertainty of the fault, so that the existing deterministic model for the power system is not suitable for risk analysis of power supply capacity of the distribution network.
In order to solve the problems, the Chinese patent application with the application number of 201410329477.4 discloses a power distribution network power supply capacity risk assessment method, which includes the steps that a power distribution equipment monitoring system obtains all power distribution equipment accounts of the unit; acquiring basic information of all power distribution equipment; setting a power supply capacity risk parameter of the power distribution network; on the basis, a power distribution network power supply capacity program is compiled, basic parameters such as operating units, equipment types and statistical time are input, and finally a power distribution network power supply capacity risk assessment report is automatically generated. The method is suitable for dividing the power supply capacity risk key area of the distribution network and optimizing the technical and economic indexes of low-voltage transformation work in the distribution network.
However, when the operation risk assessment is applied to the power supply risk assessment of the power distribution network, a time-varying reliability model capable of reflecting the real-time operation condition of the power system is not established, and an operation risk index system capable of representing the real-time reliability level in detail, the calculation real-time performance and the like are established. The intelligent power grid dispatching technology support system is a monitoring and control system for power grid operation and is an online analysis system for a power grid. The risk assessment method based on the power grid dispatching system technical support system can overcome the defects of the deterministic model, provides real-time and objective risk assessment for the power supply capacity of the power distribution network element, and becomes an urgent need for online risk assessment of the power system.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the defects in the prior art, the primary technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a power supply risk assessment method for an electric power system.
Another technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a power supply risk assessment system.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a power supply risk assessment method for a power system comprises the following steps:
determining an element to be evaluated according to the operation requirement of the power system;
searching the power supply paths of the elements, and storing all the power supply paths of the elements;
searching the power supply range of the element, determining all devices in the power supply range of the element, and storing the devices;
and (4) grading the risks of the elements according to all power supply paths and all devices within the power supply range of the elements to obtain the risk grades of the elements.
Preferably, the step of searching all power supply paths of the element comprises the following steps:
s11, starting from the element for evaluation, searching the equipment connected with the element according to the network topology connection relation;
s12, when the bus is reached, one search is finished, and power supply paths formed by all the devices from the elements to the bus are stored;
and S13, repeating the steps S11-S12 until all power supply paths from the element to the bus are traversed, finishing searching, and storing all power supply paths from the element to the bus.
Preferably, in step S11, the devices to which the elements are connected include two types: transformers and switching type elements;
when the transformer is searched, searching from a high-voltage end; when a switch-class element is searched, it is assumed that all switch-class devices are in a closed state.
Preferably, searching the power supply range of the element and determining all devices within the power supply range of the element comprises the steps of:
s21, starting from the element for evaluation, searching the station connected with the element through the network topology connection relation;
s22, traversing the equipment inside the plant station, judging the trend direction in the line if the line connected with the plant station is searched, and searching the plant station connected with the line according to the trend direction;
s23, repeating the step S22 until the line in the station is 0, and turning to the step S24;
and S24, carrying out factory station internal search on all factory stations, finding all devices connected with the element, and storing.
Preferably, after the plant station connected with the element is searched, the type of the plant station is judged according to the tidal current direction, the plant station with the tidal current direction as the inflow direction is used as the plant station in the power supply range, and the plant station enters the interior of the plant station to traverse the equipment in the plant station.
Preferably, in step S24, after all the devices connected to the element are found, the type of the device is determined, and whether the device is in the power supply range is determined according to the type of the device;
wherein, the equipment in the power supply range is primary equipment and does not include secondary equipment.
Preferably, the equipment types connected by the elements comprise a transformer, a bus and a switch element;
when the transformer is searched, searching from a low-voltage end; when a bus is searched, searching all equipment connected with the bus; and when the switch type element is searched, reading a real-time library, acquiring the real-time state of the switch element from the real-time library, and merging the real-time state of the switch element into the power supply range of the equipment when the switch is closed.
Preferably, the power supply risk assessment method for the power system further includes the following steps:
and (4) according to the risk grade of the element, carrying out listing display on the element with high risk.
Preferably, when the high-risk elements are displayed in a listing mode, the listing content comprises risk levels and risk content.
A power supply risk assessment system for an electric power system comprises a power supply path assessment module, a power supply range assessment module, a risk assessment grading module and a risk display module; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the power supply path evaluation module is used for searching all power supply paths of the element;
the power supply range evaluation module is used for searching the power supply range of the element and determining all equipment in the power supply range of the element;
the risk assessment grading module receives a power supply path transmitted by the power path assessment module and all equipment in a power supply range transmitted by the power supply range assessment module, carries out risk assessment grading on the comprehensive power supply path and the power supply range, and transmits elements with high risk grades to the risk display module;
and the risk display module is used for displaying the high-risk-level elements in a listing manner.
According to the power supply risk assessment method provided by the invention, the risk of the element is graded by searching all power supply paths of the element and the power supply range of the element, so that the accuracy of risk grading is improved. According to the risk level of the elements, the high-risk elements are displayed in a listing mode, so that the alertness of a dispatcher is improved, the dispatcher can prevent the risks as soon as possible, and the safety of the power system is improved. The risk assessment is established on the basis of a technical support system of the power grid dispatching system, the operation data of the power system is obtained in real time, and the real-time performance and the accuracy of the power supply risk assessment are improved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a block diagram of a power supply risk assessment system provided by the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a power supply risk assessment method provided by the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart of acquiring all power supply paths of components in the power supply risk assessment method provided by the present invention;
fig. 4 is a flowchart of acquiring a power supply range of an element in the power supply risk assessment method provided by the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a high risk element displayed in conjunction with an integrated intelligent warning platform, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following detailed description of the present invention will be made with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides a power supply risk assessment system for an electric power system, which includes a power supply path assessment module, a power supply range assessment module, a risk assessment grading module, and a risk display module. The power supply path evaluation module is used for searching all power supply paths of the element, the safety factor of the power supply paths of the element is evaluated through the number of the power supply paths of the element, if the element has a plurality of power supply standby paths, the power supply stability of the element is high, the power supply safety factor is high, and even if one path fails, a plurality of paths can be used for standby. The power supply path evaluation module transmits the power supply path as a parameter of risk evaluation to the risk evaluation grading module. The power supply range evaluation module is used for searching the power supply range of the element so as to evaluate the consequence caused by power failure, and if the number of stations affected by the element is large and the number of devices is large, the importance of the element is necessarily large. If a power outage occurs, the resulting losses are also very large. The risk assessment grading module receives the power supply path transmitted by the power supply path assessment module and the power supply range transmitted by the power supply range assessment module, and carries out risk assessment grading on the comprehensive power supply path and power supply range parameters. Finally, the risk assessment grading module communicates the high risk grade elements to the risk presentation module. The risk display module carries out listing display on high-risk elements, so that a dispatcher can prevent risks as soon as possible.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart of a power supply risk assessment method provided by the present invention. The method specifically comprises the following steps: the elements to be evaluated are first determined based on the operating requirements of the power system. Searching all power supply paths of the element, and saving the power supply paths as parameters for risk assessment; searching the power supply range of the element and determining all devices in the power supply range of the element. And then grading the risk of the element according to the power supply path and the power supply range of the element to obtain the risk grade of the element. And finally, according to the risk level of the element, performing listing display on the high-risk element so as to improve the alertness of the dispatcher and enable the dispatcher to prevent the risk as soon as possible. This is explained in more detail below.
Before power supply risk evaluation is carried out on the power system, elements needing evaluation are determined according to the operation requirements of the power system. These elements may be all elements of a regional grid of a region in the power system, may be elements of a certain type in the power system, or may be elements involved in a particular operation mode of the power system with a potential power supply risk. And selecting the elements to be evaluated according to the operating condition and the use requirement of the power system.
After the elements needing to be evaluated are determined, all power supply paths of the elements are searched, and the power supply paths are saved as parameters of risk evaluation. In the embodiment provided by the invention, the power supply path evaluation needs to search all power supply paths of the evaluated element first, so as to determine the power supply stability of the element. Searching for a power supply path is generally a search to all possible paths between the bus, the recording element and the bus to which it is to be powered.
As shown in fig. 3, all power supply paths of the search element specifically include the following steps:
s11, starting from the determination of the element to be evaluated, the device to which the element is connected is searched for according to the network topology connection relation.
Starting from the element for evaluation, searching the equipment connected with the element according to the network topology connection relation stored in the smart grid dispatching technical support system. The power supply path is determined to comply with the following criteria:
(1) the high-voltage end of the transformer is used as a power supply end;
(2) the switch equipment is supposed to be in a closed state;
(3) the bus is used as a termination condition of the search;
(4) the power supply side is the power flow direction outflow end of the line.
In the embodiments provided by the present invention, the devices connected by the elements are of two types, one being transformers and one being switching type elements. When a transformer is encountered in the searching process, the searching is carried out from the high-voltage end because the high-voltage end of the transformer is used as a power supply end. When a switching class element is encountered, it is assumed that all switching class devices are in a closed state to ensure that all power supply paths of the element under evaluation can be found.
And S12, when the bus is reached, finishing one search, and saving a power supply path formed by all equipment from the element to be evaluated to the bus as a parameter for risk evaluation.
And S13, repeating the steps S11-S12 until all power supply paths from the elements to be evaluated to the bus are traversed, finishing searching, and storing all power supply paths from the elements to the bus.
In addition, after the component to be evaluated is determined, the power supply range of the component is searched, and all devices within the power supply range of the component to be evaluated are determined. In the embodiment provided by the invention, the power supply risk of the power system is evaluated based on the technical support system of the power grid dispatching system, the influence of various factors in the real-time operation process of the power system is considered, and the real-time performance and the accuracy of the power supply risk evaluation are improved. The power supply range of the element is evaluated, equipment contained in the power supply range of the element needs to be searched, the application object of the power supply range searching function is station equipment or station equipment, and primary equipment such as a line, a transformer, a bus and a switch can be used as the power supply equipment. But secondary devices such as loads, capacitors, and the like are not considered as power supply devices. After the elements needing to be evaluated are determined, all the devices powered by the elements are searched out through the network topology connection relation, whether the devices belong to the power supply range is judged according to the types of the devices, and after the searching is finished, all the searched devices are recorded and marked as the influence range of the searched elements. As shown in fig. 4, searching the power supply range of the component, and determining all devices within the power supply range of the component under evaluation specifically includes the following steps:
and S21, starting from the element for evaluation, searching the station connected with the element through the network topology connection relation.
And S22, traversing the equipment inside the plant station, judging the trend direction in the line if the line connected with the plant station is searched, and searching the plant station connected with the line.
After the plant station connected with the element is searched, the type of the plant station is judged according to the tidal current direction, and only the plant station with the tidal current direction as the inflow direction can be used as the plant station in the power supply range, and the plant station can enter the interior of the plant station to traverse the equipment in the plant station. And if the line connected with the plant station is searched, judging the trend direction in the line, and searching the plant station connected with the line.
S23, repeating the step S22 until the line in the plant is 0, and turning to the step S24.
And S24, carrying out factory station internal search on all factory stations, finding all devices connected with the element, and storing the devices as a list.
And when the line in the plant station is 0, the plant station is not included in the plant station, the plant station is subjected to internal search, and equipment connected with the element is searched according to a network topology connection relation stored in the intelligent power grid scheduling technical support system so as to determine the power supply range of the element to be evaluated. The equipment searched inside the plant follows the following criteria:
(1) searching the transformer at a low-voltage end;
(2) the bus needs to search all the devices connected with the bus;
(3) the switch equipment needs to read the real-time library to obtain the real-time state, and the switch is incorporated into the power supply range of the equipment when being closed.
Traversing the equipment in the plant according to the conditions, judging the type of the equipment after finding all the equipment connected with the element, judging whether the equipment belongs to the power supply range according to the type of the equipment, wherein the application object of the power supply range searching function is the equipment in the plant or the equipment outside the plant, and primary equipment such as lines, transformers, buses, switches and the like can be used as power supply equipment. But secondary devices such as loads, capacitors, and the like are not considered as power supply devices. After the search is completed, all the searched devices are recorded and marked as the influence range of the element to be evaluated.
In the embodiments provided by the present invention, there are three types of devices to which components are connected, namely, a transformer, a bus bar, and a switching type component. And carrying out station internal search on all stations, wherein the station internal search is mainly carried out on transformers, buses and switch elements. When a transformer is encountered in the searching process, the searching is carried out from the low-voltage end because the high-voltage end of the transformer is used as a power supply end. When a bus is encountered, all devices connected to it need to be searched. When the switch type elements are encountered, the real-time library is required to be read, the real-time state of the switch elements is obtained from the real-time library, and the real-time state of the switch elements is merged into the power supply range of the equipment when the switch is closed, so that the real-time and objective risk assessment is provided for the power supply capacity of the power distribution network elements.
After the power supply path and the power supply range of the element are obtained, the risk of the element is graded according to the power supply path and the power supply range of the element, and the risk grade of the element is obtained. Wherein, the power supply path of the component is obtained from the power supply path evaluation module, the power supply range of the component is obtained by searching from the power supply range evaluation module, and then the risk of the component is graded, and the grading standard can be changed according to the difference of areas, the difference of user importance and the like. When the risk of the element is evaluated, a risk evaluation table shown in table 1 is adopted, and the risk evaluation table integrates the results of power supply range evaluation and power supply path evaluation, wherein given risk levels in an integrated manner, the higher the level is, the greater the risk is. In the embodiment provided by the invention, the risk assessment table is set according to the daily operation requirement of the power system and the requirement of a customer.
Risk rating: i, II, III, IV, V
TABLE 1 Risk assessment Table
After the risks of the elements are graded according to the risk evaluation table, some high-risk elements are subjected to listing display according to the risk grades of the elements so as to improve the alertness of a dispatcher and enable the dispatcher to prevent the risks as soon as possible. In the embodiment provided by the invention, when the high-risk element is warned, the high-risk element is displayed by combining the comprehensive intelligent warning platform, the display screen is shown in fig. 5, and the high-risk element is displayed in a listing manner, wherein the listing content comprises information such as risk level, risk content and the like.
In summary, the power supply risk assessment method provided by the present invention first obtains the components that need to be assessed for the operation of the power system, ranks the risks of the components by searching all power supply paths of the components and the power supply range of the components, and performs hang-up display on the high-risk components according to the risk levels of the components, so as to improve the alertness of the dispatcher and enable the dispatcher to prevent the risks as early as possible. In addition, the risk assessment is established on the basis of a technical support system of the power grid dispatching system, real-time and objective risk assessment is given to the power supply capacity of the power distribution network elements, and the real-time performance and accuracy of the power supply risk assessment are improved.
The power supply risk assessment method and system for the power system provided by the invention are explained in detail above. Any obvious modifications to the invention, which would occur to those skilled in the art, without departing from the true spirit of the invention, would constitute a violation of the patent rights of the invention and would carry a corresponding legal responsibility.

Claims (6)

1. A power supply risk assessment method for a power system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining an element to be evaluated according to the operation requirement of the power system;
searching the power supply paths of the elements, and storing all the power supply paths from the elements to the bus; when the transformer is searched, searching from a high-voltage end; when the switch type elements are searched, all switch type equipment is assumed to be in a closed state;
searching the power supply range of the element, determining all devices in the power supply range of the element, and storing the devices; after the station with the connected elements is searched, the type of the station is judged according to the tidal current direction, the station with the tidal current direction as the inflow direction is used as the station in the power supply range, and the station enters the interior of the station to traverse the equipment in the station: when the transformer is searched, searching from a low-voltage end; when a bus is searched, searching all equipment connected with the bus; when the switch type element is searched, reading a real-time library, acquiring the real-time state of the switch element from the real-time library, and merging the real-time state of the switch element into the power supply range of the equipment when the switch is closed;
grading the risk of the element according to all power supply paths and all devices in the power supply range of the element to obtain the risk grade of the element;
and (4) according to the risk grade of the element, carrying out listing display on the element with high risk.
2. The power supply risk assessment method oriented to the power system according to claim 1, characterized in that the search for the power supply path of the element comprises the steps of:
s11, starting from the element for evaluation, searching the equipment connected with the element according to the network topology connection relation;
s12, when the bus is reached, one search is finished, and power supply paths formed by all the devices from the elements to the bus are stored;
and S13, repeating the steps S11-S12 until all power supply paths from the element to the bus are traversed, finishing searching, and storing all power supply paths from the element to the bus.
3. The power supply risk assessment method oriented to the power system according to claim 1, wherein the step of searching the power supply range of the component and determining all devices within the power supply range of the component comprises the steps of:
s21, starting from the element for evaluation, searching the station connected with the element through the network topology connection relation;
s22, traversing the equipment inside the plant station, judging the trend direction in the line if the line connected with the plant station is searched, and searching the plant station connected with the line according to the trend direction;
s23, repeating the step S22 until the line in the station is 0, and turning to the step S24;
and S24, carrying out factory station internal search on all factory stations, finding all devices connected with the element, and storing.
4. A power supply risk assessment method for an electric power system according to claim 3, characterized in that:
in step S24, after all the devices connected to the element are found, the type of the device is determined, and whether the device is within the power supply range is determined according to the type of the device; wherein, the equipment in the power supply range is primary equipment and does not include secondary equipment.
5. The power supply risk assessment method for an electric power system according to claim 1, characterized in that:
when the high-risk elements are displayed in a listing mode, the listing content comprises risk levels and risk content.
6. A power supply risk assessment system for an electric power system is used for realizing the power supply risk assessment method of any one of claims 1-5, and is characterized by comprising a power supply path assessment module, a power supply range assessment module, a risk assessment grading module and a risk display module; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the power supply path evaluation module is used for searching all power supply paths of the element;
the power supply range evaluation module is used for searching the power supply range of the element and determining all equipment in the power supply range of the element;
the risk assessment grading module receives a power supply path transmitted by the power path assessment module and all equipment in a power supply range transmitted by the power supply range assessment module, carries out risk assessment grading on the comprehensive power supply path and the power supply range, and transmits elements with high risk grades to the risk display module;
and the risk display module is used for displaying the high-risk-level elements in a listing manner.
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