CN104732101A - System total-active-power loss-load value determining method and system used in power grid dispatching operation - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a system total-active-power loss-load value determining method and system used in the power grid dispatching operation. The method includes the steps that history system load values, history network architecture comprehensive factors and history system total-active-power loss-load values generated when an operation switch device is dispatched are determined in all history periods of time; connection function initial models of the system load values and the system total-active-power loss-load values, connection function initial models of the network architecture comprehensive factors and the system total-active-power loss-load values, connection function initial models of the system load values and the network architecture comprehensive factors of the dispatched operation switch device are established; connection function models corresponding to all the history periods of time are determined according to the history system load values, the history network architecture comprehensive factors, the history system total-active-power loss-load values and all the connection function initial models; the current system total-active-power loss-load value generated when the operation switch device is dispatched is determined according to the current system load value, the current network architecture comprehensive factor and all the connection function models corresponding to the history periods of the time in the current dispatching operation time. By means of the system total-active-power loss-load value determining method and system, the efficiency of determining the total-active-power loss-load value of the current system is improved.

Description

In Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method and system

Technical field

The present invention relates to technical field of power systems, particularly relate to system always meritorious mistake load value defining method and system in a kind of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets.

Background technology

Along with increasing rapidly of electrical network scale, in electrical network, ac and dc circuit is intricate, power equipment substantial amounts, and the electric network information moment changes, and adds disaster and takes place frequently, and the risk of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets increases.The product of the probability that risk adopts event to occur usually and both consequence values that this event occurs quantizes.The calculating of the scheduling operation value-at-risk of electrical network is also like this.Therefore, how quantizing the impact (i.e. the calculating of consequence value) that each step scheduling operation brings operation of power networks, is the key of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets risk assessment.And system always the meritorious load value that loses be an important consequence value index, usually according to system always meritorious load value determination consequence value of losing, thus determine the risk of this scheduling operation, to carry out early warning.

At present, system always meritorious calculating of losing load value is mainly based on the real time operation mode of electrical network, in conjunction with traditional Load flow calculation on realization rate, be only modeled as a simple optimal power flow problems by losing the calculating of load value, and adopt multiple Mathematics Optimization Method to be optimized to solve.This modeling and the mode solved, Load flow calculation needs repeatedly repeatedly to call, and in automation system for the power network dispatching, when electrical network scale reaches Provincial Scale and is above, within one minute, only can automatically realize Load flow calculation several times, and there is the situation that trend do not restrain, therefore, from counting yield, existing method also cannot meet the requirement of the online real-time of scheduling operation risk assessment.

Summary of the invention

Based on this, be necessary to lose the inefficient problem of load value for certainty annuity is always meritorious, system always meritorious mistake load value defining method and system in a kind of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets is provided.

In a kind of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method, comprising:

Legacy system load value when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, history rack multi-stress, legacy system are always meritorious loses load value, wherein, the factor of influence to the primary equipment rack put into operation when described history rack multi-stress represents a scheduling operation switchgear;

Set up the system load value of scheduling operation switchgear and system always meritorious contiguous function initial model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function initial model of the contiguous function initial model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system, each described contiguous function initial model determine the system load value that this historical time section scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and system always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, and determine each contiguous function model of this historical time section correspondence according to related coefficient and contiguous function initial model;

Current system load value when obtaining current scheduling operating switch equipment and current rack multi-stress, current system during each described contiguous function model determination scheduling operation switchgear according to historical time section corresponding to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current scheduling running time is always meritorious loses load value.

In a kind of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, system is always meritorious loses load value certainty annuity, comprising:

Historical data acquisition module, legacy system load value during for determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, history rack multi-stress, legacy system are always meritorious loses load value, wherein, the factor of influence to the primary equipment rack put into operation when described history rack multi-stress represents a scheduling operation switchgear;

Model determination module, for set up the system load value of scheduling operation switchgear and system always meritorious contiguous function initial model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function initial model of the contiguous function initial model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value; Always meritoriously lose load value according to legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system, each described contiguous function initial model determine the system load value that this historical time section scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and system always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, and determine each contiguous function model of this historical time section correspondence according to related coefficient and contiguous function initial model;

Lose load value determination module, current system load value during for obtaining current scheduling operating switch equipment and current rack multi-stress, current system during each described contiguous function model determination scheduling operation switchgear according to historical time section corresponding to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current scheduling running time is always meritorious loses load value.

In above-mentioned Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method and system, by obtaining legacy system load value during scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section, history rack multi-stress, legacy system is always meritorious loses load value, and in conjunction with contiguous function initial model, determine each contiguous function model of each historical time section correspondence, and then current system load value during acquisition current scheduling operating switch equipment, current rack multi-stress, according to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current system during each described contiguous function model determination scheduling operation switchgear of the historical time section that the current scheduling running time is corresponding is always meritorious loses load value.This programme based on system load value, rack multi-stress and the meritorious interlock characteristic lost between load value three, establish system load value and meritorious lose load value, rack multi-stress and gain merit lose load value, three bivariate distribution functions between system load value and rack multi-stress.Only need to carry out a Load flow calculation and suboptimum cutting load calculating, improve and determine the current system always meritorious efficiency losing load value, and then improve the efficiency of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets risk judgment.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the system always meritorious schematic flow sheet losing load value defining method embodiment in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets of the present invention;

Fig. 2 determines sample set schematic flow sheet in spring in application example of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is the system always meritorious structural representation losing load value certainty annuity embodiment in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets of the present invention.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with embodiment and accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail, but embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.

As shown in Figure 1, be the always meritorious schematic flow sheet losing load value defining method embodiment of system in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets of the present invention, comprise step:

Step S101: legacy system load value when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, history rack multi-stress, legacy system are always meritorious loses load value, wherein, the factor of influence to the primary equipment rack put into operation when described history rack multi-stress represents a scheduling operation switchgear;

Data acquisition and supervisor control (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition, SCADA) record the historical data after various scheduling operation, historical data comprises dispatch command, system load value, trend profile data etc.In order to distinguish historical data and current data, therefore again the data obtained from SCADA are called that legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system are always meritorious and lose load value, the data of current collection are called current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current system are always meritorious and lose load value.Wherein in an embodiment, directly can extract legacy system load value from SCADA, system call operational order corresponding to legacy system load value can be extracted simultaneously, the legacy system load value of this time and scheduling operation instruction are formed a sample.The trend profile data that sample is corresponding also can obtain from SCADA, thus determine legacy system always meritorious mistake load value, calculate the history rack multi-stress that each sample is corresponding again, thus mistake load value of scheduling operation instruction, legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system always can being gained merit is set to a sample set.Switchgear comprises isolating switch and disconnector.Isolating switch is commonly called as switch again, and disconnector can comprise disconnecting link and ground cutter.

Step S102: set up the system load value of scheduling operation switchgear and system always meritorious contiguous function initial model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function initial model of the contiguous function initial model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value;

The change of system loading fluctuation, successful operation and the grid structure feature unsuccessfully caused and the risk schedule value brought, connect each other, and under specific load level, Power grid structure and operation characteristic all have certain general character between three.For making full use of these general character, operation efficiency is provided, quantization system load fluctuation simultaneously, operate the inner link between grid structure change and corresponding this three of risk schedule value caused each time, two-dimentional contiguous function (contiguous function can be copula distribution function) between establishing between two is with descriptive system load value more clearly, rack multi-stress and system be meritorious interlock of losing between load value (namely system loses load risk schedule value) three always, namely set up that system load value and system are always meritorious loses load value, rack multi-stress and system are always meritorious loses load value, three two-dimentional contiguous functions between system load value and rack multi-stress.

Because system load value is larger, for guaranteeing safe power supply, the equipment scale put into operation also can be thereupon larger, and the burden with power penalty values that at this moment scheduling operation may cause also has the possibility of increase.Therefore, there are between three the thick tail correlation properties of upper right, Gumbel-Copula distribution function can be adopted simulate.

Due to system load value and system always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit related coefficient the unknown of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, therefore, first connect function initial model.Wherein in an embodiment, following formula is adopted to represent the contiguous function initial model of system load value and rack multi-stress:

$C(u_L,u_{\mathrm{\ψ}})=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{e}^{\left\{\right[{(-\ln u_L)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}+{(-\ln u_{\mathrm{\ψ}})}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}\left]\right\}}$

Following formula is adopted to represent system load value and the system always meritorious contiguous function initial model losing load value:

$C(u_L,u_{\mathrm{PL}})=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}{e}^{\left\{\right[{(-\ln u_L)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}+{\left({-\ln u}_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}\left]\right\}}$

Following formula is adopted to represent rack multi-stress and the system always meritorious contiguous function initial model losing load value:

$C(u_{\mathrm{\ψ}},u_{\mathrm{PL}})=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}{e}^{\left\{\right[{\left({-\ln u}_{\mathrm{\ψ}}\right)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}+\left]{\left({-\ln u}_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}\right\}}$

Wherein, L represents system load value during scheduling operation switchgear, and ψ represents rack multi-stress during scheduling operation switchgear, and PL represents that the system after operating switch equipment is always meritorious and loses load value, C (u _l, u _ψ) represent there is u _l, u _ψprobability; C (u _l, u _pL) represent there is u _l, u _pLprobability; C (u _ψ, u _pL) represent there is u _ψ, u _pLprobability; u _lrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to L; u _ψrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u _pLrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to PL; θ _l-PLrepresent the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _ψ-PLrepresent the rack multi-stress that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _l-ψrepresent the related coefficient of the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and rack multi-stress.Wherein, u _l∈ [0,1], u _pL∈ [0,1], u _ψ∈ [0,1].

Step S103: always meritoriously lose load value according to legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system, each described contiguous function initial model determine the system load value that this historical time section scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and system always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, and determine each contiguous function model of each historical time section correspondence according to related coefficient and contiguous function initial model;

The object of this step is each related coefficient utilizing the contiguous function initial model of sample set and foundation to determine this historical time section correspondence, and then each related coefficient is substituted into contiguous function initial model, thus obtain each contiguous function model of this historical time section correspondence.Wherein, each contiguous function model comprise system load value and system always meritorious contiguous function model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function model of the contiguous function model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value.Namely each history section to should have system load value and system always meritorious contiguous function model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function model of the contiguous function model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value.Each described contiguous function initial model comprise system load value and system always meritorious contiguous function initial model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function initial model of the contiguous function initial model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value.

When historical time is divided into multiple time period, adopt in this way, the contiguous function model of each historical time section correspondence can be obtained.

Step S104: obtain current system load value, current rack multi-stress during current scheduling operating switch equipment, current system during each described contiguous function model determination scheduling operation switchgear according to historical time section corresponding to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current scheduling running time is always meritorious loses load value.

Current system load value directly can gather acquisition.Factor of influence to the primary equipment rack put into operation when current rack multi-stress represents that current scheduling operates a switchgear.Corresponding historical time section is determined according to the current scheduling running time, thus each contiguous function model of historical time section correspondence can be obtained, each contiguous function model comprise system load value and system always meritorious contiguous function model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function model of the contiguous function model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value.And then current system when can determine scheduling operation switchgear according to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, each contiguous function model is always meritorious loses load value.Determine current system always meritorious lose load value after, can according to current system always the meritorious load value that loses risk judgment is carried out to this scheduling operation.

The system that the present embodiment proposes the always meritorious defining method losing load value can consider the factor (adjustment etc. of such as grid structure change, the method for operation) being difficult to consider in the senior application such as conventional Load Flow calculatings, optimal load flow calculating, make the system that calculates always meritorious mistake load consequence value more can embody electrical network actual conditions.Each time period corresponding contiguous function is that off-line generates, and online calculating section only needs to carry out a Load flow calculation and suboptimum cutting load calculating, and computing velocity significantly improves, and can meet the requirement of engineering of real-time online completely.And, valuable data message in the electrical network history run excavated and scheduling operation is fused in the senior application of the electric system such as trend, optimal load flow, for scheduling operation personnel provide effective aid decision making instrument by the system that the application proposes the always meritorious load value defining method that loses.

In order to certainty annuity load value and system always meritorious contiguous function model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function model of the contiguous function model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, selection sample set is very important.Wherein in an embodiment, history rack multi-stress step when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, comprising:

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear success in described season:

ψ'＝(1+μ ₁+μ ₂)(n' _G+n' _T+n' _L+n' _B)

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear failure in described season:

ψ”＝n” _G+n” _T+n” _L+n” _B

Wherein, ψ ' represents history rack multi-stress during a successful scheduling operation switchgear, n' _g, n' _t, n' _l, n' _bthe generator number put into operation in system after being expressed as merit scheduling operation switchgear, transformer number, track data and bus number, ψ " history rack multi-stress when representing a scheduling operation switchgear failure, n " _g, n " _t, n " _l, n " _bthe generator number, transformer number, track data and the bus number that put into operation in system after representing the failure of scheduling operation switchgear respectively, μ ₁represent that described switchgear has influence on the correction weight factor of connected branch type after successful operation, μ ₂represent the load important level that described switchgear operation success time institute's chord road connects.Concrete, compare with the structural drawing after switchgear operation success according to the network structure preset, the branch road had influence on after determining switchgear operation success.Wherein, μ ₁can correspondence presets according to the branch road of impact is different.Such as, when the branch road judging to have influence on is generator, μ ₁for the μ preset _g1value; When the branch road judging to have influence on is transformer, μ ₁for the μ preset _t1value; When the branch road judging to have influence on is circuit, μ ₁for the μ preset _l1value; When the branch road judging to have influence on is bus, μ ₁for the μ preset _b1value.μ ₂can preset according to the load severity level difference that institute's chord road connects.,,, switchgear comprises isolating switch and disconnector.Isolating switch is commonly called as switch again, and disconnector can comprise disconnecting link and ground cutter.ψ ' and ψ " be all history rack multi-stress, represent just in order to distinguish successful operation state and operation failure state with distinct symbols.

The present embodiment defines rack multi-stress, from scheduling operation success and operation failure two angles, establish the mathematical model of rack multi-stress respectively, when this mathematical model can consider operation, in electrical network, the throwing of primary equipment is moved back and contact situation, and is connected and load level by the network near operating equipment.

Concrete, after scheduling operation, the rack of electrical network mainly considers structure situation, namely switch, back brake, after cutter operation, the situation that puts into operation of primary equipment in the straight electrical network adjusted of scheduling, i.e. generator, transformer, circuit, the bus situation that puts into operation in a network.The number that the present embodiment adopts primary equipment to put into operation is to describe the structure of rack, and wherein, each scheduling operation only operates a switchgear.Definition grid structure factor B is as follows:

B _k＝n _G,k+n _T,k+n _L,k+n _B,k

K represents switchgear.Variable n _g,k, n _t,k, n _l,k, n _b,kthe generator, transformer, circuit and the bus number that put into operation in electrical network after representing operating switch equipment k respectively.

This grid structure factor B _konly embody the basic structure characteristic of rack, do not reflect and moved back impact on rack by the throwing of operating equipment k.On this basis, rack multi-stress ψ is defined _k, consider successful operation and operation failure two kinds of situations:

The situation of successful operation:

ψ _k＝(1+μ ₁+μ ₂)B _k

Wherein, μ ₁indication equipment k has influence on the correction weight factor of the type of connected branch road after successful operation, and such as value can be: when branch road is circuit, μ ₁be 0.2; Branch road be generator or transformer time, μ ₁be 0.6; When branch road is bus, μ ₁be 1.0.μ ₂indication equipment k is after successful operation, and the load severity level that its chord road connects, such as value can be: 0.2 (three stage loads), 0.6 (two stage loads), 1.0 (first order load).

The situation of operation failure:

ψ _k＝B _k

Namely when operation failure, network structure does not change, and at this moment the grid structure factor does not need to revise.

Data acquisition and supervisor control may not necessarily Real-time Obtaining to trend profile data, need just can obtain by calculating.Wherein in an embodiment, by season division historical time, determine historical time section, described legacy system load value when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, legacy system is always meritorious loses load value step, comprising:

From data acquisition and supervisor control, obtain in each season legacy system load value when presetting date operation dispatching operating switch equipment, and judge the trend profile data after whether there is this time period operation dispatching in data acquisition and supervisor control operates;

If there is not trend profile data, emulation mode is then adopted to calculate system load flow corresponding to the rear described legacy system load value of operation dispatching operation, if trend restrains, then always meritorious to lose load value be zero to legacy system, if trend does not restrain, then carry out optimum cutting load calculating, determine that legacy system is always meritorious and lose load value;

If there is trend profile data, then lose load value according to described trend profile data determination legacy system is always meritorious.Such as, when trend restrains, then always meritorious to lose load value be zero to legacy system, if trend does not restrain, then carries out optimum cutting load calculating, determine that legacy system is always meritorious and lose load value.

The sample set of the present embodiment generated by season, based on the scheduling of electrical network history and service data, propose the choosing method of seasonal sample, always gain merit with estimating system load value and system and lose load value, rack multi-stress and the system always meritorious related coefficient lost in three two-dimentional Gumbel-Copula distribution functions of load value, system load value and rack multi-stress.Thus the contiguous function model that step S103 can be made to generate also is generate by season, namely spring (the 3-5 month), summer (the 6-8 month), autumn (the 9-11 month), winter (the 12-2 month) four seasons are separately according to the sample architecture contiguous function model separately of this season.

Further, described legacy system load value comprises peak load, waist lotus and Ji He, calculates that legacy system that in same season, peak load is corresponding is always meritorious loses that legacy system corresponding to load value, waist lotus always meritoriously loses load value, legacy system that base lotus is corresponding is always meritorious loses load value respectively;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, peak load and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to peak load in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to peak load in this in season;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, waist lotus and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to waist lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to waist lotus in this in season;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, Ji He and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to base lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to base lotus in this in season;

When calculating current system always gains merit mistake load value, judge residing for current time peak load, waist lotus or base lotus belonging to season, current system load value, select corresponding contiguous function model according to judged result, and lose load value according to this contiguous function model determination current system is always meritorious.Namely judge residing for current time season, judge that system load value belongs to peak load, waist lotus or base lotus, according to determining corresponding contiguous function in described season and system load value.

The object of the present embodiment system load value is divided into peak load, waist lotus and Ji He in same season, can determine three copula functions that in same season, peak load is corresponding, three copula functions that waist lotus is corresponding, three copula functions that base lotus is corresponding respectively.

As shown in Figure 2, for determining sample set schematic flow sheet in spring in application example of the present invention.First choose some typical case's days (establish variables D to represent to choose typical day number of days) in 1 year spring, these typical cases can embody working day, the part throttle characteristics on off-day and system network shelf structure and operation characteristic day.Extract simultaneously the Japan-China peak load of each typical case, waist lotus and Ji He time, the dispatch command of corresponding execution.Dispatch command is individual event order, instruction respective operations switchgear.The system load value of typical case's day is formed one with corresponding dispatch command gather, and generate the sample set in spring.The trend profile data after the operation of scheduling order is at that time gathered from SCADA historical data base; If trend profile data cannot obtain, then adopt the mode of emulation, calculate each typical case's day when system load value such as peak load, waist lotus and Ji He, the system load flow after corresponding scheduling order performs, if trend convergence, then always meritorious to lose load value be 0 to system; Otherwise, if trend does not restrain, then call optimum cutting load model, calculate system corresponding to this sample always meritorious mistake load value.Therefore, a typical day may comprise multiple sample, and the system load value section form numbers such as the peak load extracted by this day, waist lotus and Ji He are determined (namely giving tacit consent to the operation at the corresponding equipment of a system load value).Then calculate the rack multi-stress that each sample is corresponding, finally form complete sample set in spring.

Optimum cutting load model is as follows:

Optimization aim: electrical network total cutting load amount (power failure power) is minimum

Wherein, Δ P _li, Δ Q _listate load respectively to gain merit and idle reduction (MW, Mvar), N _bcutting load interstitial content selected in expression system.

Constraint condition:

1. node active power balance: $\underset{j\≠i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{P}_{\mathrm{ij}}=P_{\mathrm{Gi}}-(P_{\mathrm{Li}}-\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{\mathrm{Li}})$

2. node reactive power equilibrium: $\underset{j\≠i}{\mathrm{\Σ}}{Q}_{\mathrm{ij}}=Q_{\mathrm{Gi}}-(Q_{\mathrm{Li}}-\mathrm{\Δ}{Q}_{\mathrm{Li}})$

3. generated power units limits:

4. adjustable reactive power source units limits:

5. Line Flow constraint:

6. node voltage constraint:

7. load bus excision burden with power amount constraint:

8. load bus excision load or burden without work amount constraint:

Wherein, P _li, Q _lirepresent the meritorious of each load and reactive power respectively; represent the upper and lower bound that generated power exports respectively; represent the upper and lower bound that generator reactive exports respectively; represent the bound of the meritorious transmission capacity of transmission line respectively; represent the bound of each node voltage amplitude respectively; represent the upper limit that is meritorious and load or burden without work reduction respectively.And control variable is cutting load active power, and cutting load reactive power is excised in proportion according to the method for determining power factor.

Visible, optimum cutting load model, its essence is an optimal load flow, and the BARON that directly can call GAMS software separates musical instruments used in a Buddhist or Taoist mass and solves, and objective function corresponding to optimum solution is that system is always meritorious loses load value, that is,

$\mathrm{PL}={\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{N_b}\mathrm{\Δ}{P}_{\mathrm{Li}}$

Because same typical case is Japan-China, during different system load value, may operate different equipment, therefore, this, sample number of reality was in season wherein, M _drepresent d the Japan-China canonical system load value number extracted of typical case, or the number of devices of operation.

Therefore, this season, corresponding sample free list 1 represented, be the convenience of statement, in following table, the subscript of L, ψ, PL carries out Unified number according to the sample number chosen.

Table 1

Then employing maximum-likelihood method estimates the related coefficient θ in each contiguous function initial model _l-PL, θ _ψ-PL, θ _l-ψ.So far, define three copula functions corresponding to peak load in spring, three copula functions that waist lotus is corresponding, three copula functions that base lotus is corresponding, other seasons by that analogy.

After obtaining copula function corresponding to each season, the copula function determination current system that current system load value, current rack multi-stress and this season can be utilized corresponding is always meritorious loses load value.Current system load value directly can gather acquisition, and current rack multi-stress can utilize the method solving history rack multi-stress to obtain.

Such as, the rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear success in described season is adopted:

ψ'＝(1+μ ₁+μ ₂)(n' _G+n' _T+n' _L+n' _B)

Adopt the rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear failure in described season:

ψ＝n _G+n _T+n _L+n _B

Wherein, during the success of scheduling operation switchgear, ψ represents a rack multi-stress during scheduling operation switchgear success, n _g, n _t, n _l, n _bthe generator number, transformer number, track data and the bus number that put into operation in system after representing the success of scheduling operation switchgear respectively, μ ₁represent that described switchgear has influence on the correction weight factor of connected branch type after successful operation, μ ₂represent the load important level that described switchgear operation success time institute's chord road connects.

During the failure of scheduling operation switchgear, ψ represents a rack multi-stress during scheduling operation switchgear failure, n _g, n _t, n _l, n _bthe generator number, transformer number, track data and the bus number that put into operation in system after representing the failure of scheduling operation switchgear respectively.

Wherein in an embodiment, current system always meritorious mistake load value during following formula determination scheduling operation switchgear can be adopted:

$E\left[\mathrm{PL}\right]=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{PL}\×\left\{E\right[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}]+E[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\},& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}\right]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}>0\\ 0,& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}\right]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\≤0\end{array}\right.$

Wherein,

$C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{e}^{\left\{\right[\left(L\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}+\left(\mathrm{\ψ}\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}\left]\right\}}$

Wherein, E [PL] represents current system always meritorious mistake load value during this switchgear of scheduling operation, system corresponding when PL represents current scheduling operating switch equipment is always meritorious loses load prediction value, and described system always meritorious load prediction value of losing is to the system corresponding during current scheduling operating switch equipment always meritorious value lost load value and adopt regression forecasting to obtain; L represents current system load value during current scheduling operating switch equipment, and ψ represents current rack multi-stress during current scheduling operating switch equipment, C (u _l, u _ψ) represent there is u _l, u _ψprobability; C (u _l, u _pL) represent there is u _l, u _pLprobability; C (u _ψ, u _pL) represent there is u _ψ, u _pLprobability; u _lrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to L; u _ψrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u _pLrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to PL; θ _l-PLrepresent the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _ψ-PLrepresent the rack multi-stress that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _l-ψrepresent the related coefficient of the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and rack multi-stress.

PL is when not considering that system operation mode adjusts, the meritorious mistake load average that forecast failure collection is corresponding, adopts all historical sample PL values that the phase of all typical case's days in this season is corresponding in the same time, carries out regression forecasting obtain according to the change of system loading level.Concrete, when determining PL, Load flow calculation is carried out to the net after current scheduling operation, if trend convergence, then PL=0; If trend does not restrain, then acquire from historical sample set.

In the present embodiment, what represent is the probability that after considering the correlative factor such as system loading, grid structure, system still may lose load, if value≤0 of this formula, then illustrate and can avoid occurring that system loses load (even if at this moment Load flow calculation is not restrained, PL>0) by the adjustment of system operation mode; Otherwise, if the value >0 of this formula, even if the adjustment by system operation mode is then described, still have the situation that may occur losing load value.

Various technical characteristics in above embodiment can combine arbitrarily, as long as there is not conflict or contradiction in the combination between feature, but as space is limited, describe one by one, the carrying out arbitrarily combining of the various technical characteristics therefore in above-mentioned embodiment also belongs to this instructions scope of disclosure.

Load value defining method is lost based on system in above-mentioned Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets is always meritorious, the present invention also provides system always meritorious mistake load value certainty annuity in a kind of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, as shown in Figure 3, for the always meritorious structural representation losing load value certainty annuity embodiment of system in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets of the present invention, comprising:

Historical data acquisition module 310, legacy system load value during for determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, history rack multi-stress, legacy system are always meritorious loses load value, wherein, the factor of influence to the primary equipment rack put into operation when described history rack multi-stress represents a scheduling operation switchgear;

Model determination module 320, for set up the system load value of scheduling operation switchgear and system always meritorious contiguous function initial model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function initial model of the contiguous function initial model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value; Always meritoriously lose load value according to legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system, each described contiguous function initial model determine the system load value that this historical time section scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and system always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, and determine each contiguous function model of this historical time section correspondence according to related coefficient and contiguous function initial model;

Lose load value determination module 330, for obtaining current system load value, current rack multi-stress during current scheduling operating switch equipment, current system during each described contiguous function model determination scheduling operation switchgear according to historical time section corresponding to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current scheduling running time is always meritorious loses load value.

Wherein in an embodiment, also comprising historical time section determination module, for pressing season division historical time, determining historical time section;

Described historical data acquisition module, for:

From data acquisition and supervisor control, obtain in each season legacy system load value when presetting date operation dispatching operating switch equipment, and judge the trend profile data after whether there is this time period operation dispatching in data acquisition and supervisor control operates;

If there is not trend profile data, emulation mode is then adopted to calculate system load flow corresponding to the rear described legacy system load value of operation dispatching operation, if trend restrains, then always meritorious to lose load value be zero to legacy system, if trend does not restrain, then carry out optimum cutting load calculating, determine that legacy system is always meritorious and lose load value;

If there is trend profile data, then lose load value according to described trend profile data determination legacy system is always meritorious;

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear success in described season:

ψ'＝(1+μ ₁+μ ₂)(n' _G+n' _T+n' _L+n' _B)

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear failure in described season:

ψ”＝n” _G+n” _T+n” _L+n” _B

Wherein, ψ ' represents history rack multi-stress during a successful scheduling operation switchgear, n' _g, n' _t, n' _l, n' _bthe generator number put into operation in system after being expressed as merit scheduling operation switchgear, transformer number, track data and bus number, ψ " history rack multi-stress when representing a scheduling operation switchgear failure, n " _g, n " _t, n " _l, n " _bthe generator number, transformer number, track data and the bus number that put into operation in system after representing the failure of scheduling operation switchgear respectively, μ ₁represent that described switchgear has influence on the correction weight factor of connected branch type after successful operation, μ ₂represent the load important level that described switchgear operation success time institute's chord road connects.

Wherein in an embodiment, described legacy system load value comprises peak load, waist lotus and Ji He, and described historical data acquisition module calculates that legacy system that in same season, peak load is corresponding is always meritorious loses that legacy system corresponding to load value, waist lotus always meritoriously loses load value, legacy system that base lotus is corresponding is always meritorious loses load value respectively;

Described model determination module, for always meritoriously losing load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, peak load and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to peak load in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to peak load in this in season; Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, waist lotus and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to waist lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to waist lotus in this in season; Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, Ji He and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to base lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to base lotus in this in season;

Described mistake load value determination module, for judging residing for current time peak load, waist lotus or base lotus belonging to season, current system load value, select corresponding contiguous function model according to judged result, and lose load value according to this contiguous function model determination current system is always meritorious.

Wherein in an embodiment, described mistake load value determination module, loses load value for current system when adopting following formula determination scheduling operation switchgear is always meritorious:

$E\left[\mathrm{PL}\right]=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{PL}\×\left\{E\right[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}]+E[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\},& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}\right]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}>0\\ 0,& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}\right]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\≤0\end{array}\right.$

Wherein,

$C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{e}^{\left\{\right[\left(L\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}+\left(\mathrm{\ψ}\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}\left]\right\}}$

Wherein, E [PL] represents current system always meritorious mistake load value during this switchgear of scheduling operation, system corresponding when PL represents current scheduling operating switch equipment is always meritorious loses load prediction value, and described system always meritorious load prediction value of losing is to the system corresponding during current scheduling operating switch equipment always meritorious value lost load value and adopt regression forecasting to obtain; L represents current system load value during current scheduling operating switch equipment, and ψ represents current rack multi-stress during current scheduling operating switch equipment, C (u _l, u _ψ) represent there is u _l, u _ψprobability; C (u _l, u _pL) represent there is u _l, u _pLprobability; C (u _ψ, u _pL) represent there is u _ψ, u _pLprobability; u _lrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to L; u _ψrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u _pLrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to PL; θ _l-PLrepresent the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _ψ-PLrepresent the rack multi-stress that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _l-ψrepresent the related coefficient of the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and rack multi-stress.

In Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets of the present invention system always meritorious load value certainty annuity and the system in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets of the present invention lost always gain merit that to lose load value defining method be one to one, in above-mentioned Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets system always meritorious correlation technique feature in load value defining method embodiment and the technique effect thereof of losing all be applicable to that system in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets is always meritorious to be lost in load value certainty annuity embodiment, do not repeat them here.

The above embodiment only have expressed several embodiment of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but therefore can not be interpreted as the restriction to the scope of the claims of the present invention.It should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with claims.

Claims (10)

1. in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, system is always meritorious loses a load value defining method, it is characterized in that, comprising:

Legacy system load value when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, history rack multi-stress, legacy system are always meritorious loses load value, wherein, the factor of influence to the primary equipment rack put into operation when described history rack multi-stress represents a scheduling operation switchgear;

Set up the system load value of scheduling operation switchgear and system always meritorious contiguous function initial model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function initial model of the contiguous function initial model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system, each described contiguous function initial model determine the system load value that this historical time section scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and system always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, and determine each contiguous function model of this historical time section correspondence according to related coefficient and contiguous function initial model;

Current system load value when obtaining current scheduling operating switch equipment and current rack multi-stress, current system during each described contiguous function model determination scheduling operation switchgear according to historical time section corresponding to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current scheduling running time is always meritorious loses load value.

2. in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 1, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method, it is characterized in that, described history rack multi-stress step when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, comprising:

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear success in described season:

ψ'＝(1+μ ₁+μ ₂)(n' _G+n' _T+n' _L+n' _B)

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear failure in described season:

ψ″＝n″ _G+n″ _T+n″ _L+n″ _B

Wherein, ψ ' represents history rack multi-stress during a successful scheduling operation switchgear, n' _g, n' _t, n' _l, n' _bthe generator number put into operation in system after being expressed as merit scheduling operation switchgear, transformer number, track data and bus number, ψ " represents a history rack multi-stress during scheduling operation switchgear failure, n " _g, n " _t, n " _l, n " _bthe generator number, transformer number, track data and the bus number that put into operation in system after representing the failure of scheduling operation switchgear respectively, μ ₁represent that described switchgear has influence on the correction weight factor of connected branch type after successful operation, μ ₂represent the load important level that described switchgear operation success time institute's chord road connects.

3. in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 1, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method, it is characterized in that, by season division historical time, determine historical time section, described legacy system load value when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, legacy system is always meritorious loses load value step, comprising:

From data acquisition and supervisor control, obtain in each season legacy system load value when presetting date operation dispatching operating switch equipment, and judge the trend profile data after whether there is this time period operation dispatching in data acquisition and supervisor control operates;

If there is not trend profile data, emulation mode is then adopted to calculate system load flow corresponding to the rear described legacy system load value of operation dispatching operation, if trend restrains, then always meritorious to lose load value be zero to legacy system, if trend does not restrain, then carry out optimum cutting load calculating, determine that legacy system is always meritorious and lose load value;

If there is trend profile data, then lose load value according to described trend profile data determination legacy system is always meritorious.

4. in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 3, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method, it is characterized in that, described legacy system load value comprises peak load, waist lotus and Ji He, calculates that legacy system that in same season, peak load is corresponding is always meritorious loses that legacy system corresponding to load value, waist lotus always meritoriously loses load value, legacy system that base lotus is corresponding is always meritorious loses load value respectively;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, peak load and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to peak load in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to peak load in this in season;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, waist lotus and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to waist lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to waist lotus in this in season;

Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, Ji He and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to base lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to base lotus in this in season;

When calculating current system always gains merit mistake load value, judge residing for current time peak load, waist lotus or base lotus belonging to season, current system load value, select corresponding contiguous function model according to judged result, and lose load value according to this contiguous function model determination current system is always meritorious.

5. in the Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to Claims 1-4 any one, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method, it is characterized in that, adopts following formula to represent the contiguous function initial model of system load value and rack multi-stress:

$C(u_L,u_{\mathrm{\ψ}})=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{e}^{\{-[{\left(\text{-ln}{u}_L\right)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}+{(-\ln u_{\mathrm{\ψ}})}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}\left]\right\}}$

Following formula is adopted to represent system load value and the system always meritorious contiguous function initial model losing load value:

$C(u_L,u_{\mathrm{PL}})=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}{e}^{\{-[{\left(\text{-ln}{u}_L\right)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}+{(-\ln u_{\mathrm{PL}})}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}\left]\right\}}$

Following formula is adopted to represent rack multi-stress and the system always meritorious contiguous function initial model losing load value:

$C(u_{\mathrm{\ψ}},u_{\mathrm{PL}})=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}{e}^{\{-[{\left(\text{-ln}{u}_{\mathrm{\ψ}}\right)}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}+{(-\ln u_{\mathrm{PL}})}^{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}-\mathrm{PL}}}\left]\right\}}$

Wherein, L represents system load value during scheduling operation switchgear, and ψ represents rack multi-stress during scheduling operation switchgear, and PL represents that the system after operating switch equipment is always meritorious and loses load value, C (u _l, u _ψ) represent there is u _l, u _ψprobability; C (u _l, u _pL) represent there is u _l, u _pLprobability; C (u _ψ, u _pL) represent there is u _ψ, u _pLprobability; u _lrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to L; u _ψrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u _pLrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to PL; θ _l-PLrepresent the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _ψ-PLrepresent the rack multi-stress that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _l-ψrepresent the related coefficient of the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and rack multi-stress.

6. in the Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to Claims 1-4 any one, system is always meritorious loses load value defining method, it is characterized in that, adopts current system always meritorious mistake load value during following formula determination scheduling operation switchgear:

$E\left[\mathrm{PL}\right]=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{PL}\×\left\{E\right[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}]+E[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\},& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}>0\\ 0,& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{U_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}\right]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\≤0\end{array}\right.$

Wherein,

$C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{e}^{\{-[\left(L\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}+\left(\mathrm{\ψ}\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}}-\mathrm{PL}}\left]\right\}}$

Wherein, E [PL] represents current system always meritorious mistake load value during this switchgear of scheduling operation, system corresponding when PL represents current scheduling operating switch equipment is always meritorious loses load prediction value, and described system always meritorious load prediction value of losing is to the system corresponding during current scheduling operating switch equipment always meritorious value lost load value and adopt regression forecasting to obtain; L represents current system load value during current scheduling operating switch equipment, and ψ represents current rack multi-stress during current scheduling operating switch equipment, C (u _l, u _ψ) represent there is u _l, u _ψprobability; C (u _l, u _pL) represent there is u _l, u _pLprobability; C (u _ψ, u _pL) represent there is u _ψ, u _pLprobability; u _lrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to L; u _ψrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u _pLrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to PL; θ _l-PLrepresent the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _ψ-PLrepresent the rack multi-stress that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _l-ψrepresent the related coefficient of the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and rack multi-stress.

7. in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, system is always meritorious loses a load value certainty annuity, it is characterized in that, comprising:

Historical data acquisition module, legacy system load value during for determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section according to the historical data in data acquisition and supervisor control, history rack multi-stress, legacy system are always meritorious loses load value, wherein, the factor of influence to the primary equipment rack put into operation when described history rack multi-stress represents a scheduling operation switchgear;

Model determination module, for set up the system load value of scheduling operation switchgear and system always meritorious contiguous function initial model, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the contiguous function initial model of the contiguous function initial model, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value; Always meritoriously lose load value according to legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system, each described contiguous function initial model determine the system load value that this historical time section scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and system always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, and determine each contiguous function model of this historical time section correspondence according to related coefficient and contiguous function initial model;

Lose load value determination module, current system load value during for obtaining current scheduling operating switch equipment and current rack multi-stress, current system during each described contiguous function model determination scheduling operation switchgear according to historical time section corresponding to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current scheduling running time is always meritorious loses load value.

8. in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 7, system is always meritorious loses load value certainty annuity, it is characterized in that, also comprises historical time section determination module, for pressing season division historical time, determining historical time section;

Described historical data acquisition module, for:

From data acquisition and supervisor control, obtain in each season legacy system load value when presetting date operation dispatching operating switch equipment, and judge the trend profile data after whether there is this time period operation dispatching in data acquisition and supervisor control operates;

If there is not trend profile data, emulation mode is then adopted to calculate system load flow corresponding to the rear described legacy system load value of operation dispatching operation, if trend restrains, then always meritorious to lose load value be zero to legacy system, if trend does not restrain, then carry out optimum cutting load calculating, determine that legacy system is always meritorious and lose load value;

If there is trend profile data, then lose load value according to described trend profile data determination legacy system is always meritorious;

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear success in described season:

ψ'＝(1+μ ₁+μ ₂)(n' _G+n' _T+n' _L+n' _B)

Adopt the history rack multi-stress that following formula is determined when presetting date scheduling operation switchgear failure in described season:

ψ″＝n″ _G+n″ _T+n″ _L+n″ _B

Wherein, ψ ' represents history rack multi-stress during a successful scheduling operation switchgear, n' _g, n' _t, n' _l, n' _bthe generator number put into operation in system after being expressed as merit scheduling operation switchgear, transformer number, track data and bus number, ψ " represents a history rack multi-stress during scheduling operation switchgear failure, n " _g, n " _t, n " _l, n " _bthe generator number, transformer number, track data and the bus number that put into operation in system after representing the failure of scheduling operation switchgear respectively, μ ₁represent that described switchgear has influence on the correction weight factor of connected branch type after successful operation, μ ₂represent the load important level that described switchgear operation success time institute's chord road connects.

9. in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 8, system is always meritorious loses load value certainty annuity, and it is characterized in that, described legacy system load value comprises peak load, waist lotus and Ji He;

Described historical data acquisition module calculates that legacy system that in same season, peak load is corresponding is always meritorious loses that legacy system corresponding to load value, waist lotus always meritoriously loses load value, legacy system that base lotus is corresponding is always meritorious loses load value respectively;

Described model determination module, for always meritoriously losing load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, peak load and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to peak load in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to peak load in this in season; Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, waist lotus and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to waist lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to waist lotus in this in season; Always meritoriously lose load value according to the legacy system of history rack multi-stress, Ji He and correspondence thereof, each described contiguous function initial model determine system load value corresponding to base lotus in this and system in season always meritorious related coefficient, rack multi-stress and the system losing load value always to gain merit the related coefficient of the related coefficient, system load value and the rack multi-stress that lose load value, obtain contiguous function model corresponding to base lotus in this in season;

Described mistake load value determination module, for judging residing for current time peak load, waist lotus or base lotus belonging to season, current system load value, select corresponding contiguous function model according to judged result, and lose load value according to this contiguous function model determination current system is always meritorious.

10. in the Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 7 to 9 any one, system is always meritorious loses load value certainty annuity, it is characterized in that, described mistake load value determination module, loses load value for current system when adopting following formula determination scheduling operation switchgear is always meritorious:

$E\left[\mathrm{PL}\right]=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{PL}\×\left\{E\right[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}]+E[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\},& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}>0\\ 0,& E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{u_L}\right]+E\left[C{\left(u_{\mathrm{PL}}\right)}_{U_{\mathrm{\ψ}}}\right]-C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}\≤0\end{array}\right.$

Wherein,

$C_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}=\frac{1}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{e}^{\{-[\left(L\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{PL}}}+\left(\mathrm{\ψ}\right)\frac{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{L-\mathrm{\ψ}}}{{\mathrm{\θ}}_{\mathrm{\ψ}}-\mathrm{PL}}\left]\right\}}$

Wherein, E [PL] represents current system always meritorious mistake load value during this switchgear of scheduling operation, system corresponding when PL represents current scheduling operating switch equipment is always meritorious loses load prediction value, and described system always meritorious load prediction value of losing is to the system corresponding during current scheduling operating switch equipment always meritorious value lost load value and adopt regression forecasting to obtain; L represents current system load value during current scheduling operating switch equipment, and ψ represents current rack multi-stress during current scheduling operating switch equipment, C (u _l, u _ψ) represent there is u _l, u _ψprobability; C (u _l, u _pL) represent there is u _l, u _pLprobability; C (u _ψ, u _pL) represent there is u _ψ, u _pLprobability; u _lrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to L; u _ψrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u _pLrepresent the pseudo random number corresponding to PL; θ _l-PLrepresent the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _ψ-PLrepresent the rack multi-stress that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and the system always meritorious related coefficient losing load value, θ _l-ψrepresent the related coefficient of the system load value that scheduling operation switchgear is corresponding and rack multi-stress.