CN104732101B - The total active mistake load value of system determines method and system in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets - Google Patents

The total active mistake load value of system determines method and system in Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets Download PDF

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CN104732101B
CN104732101B CN201510159485.3A CN201510159485A CN104732101B CN 104732101 B CN104732101 B CN 104732101B CN 201510159485 A CN201510159485 A CN 201510159485A CN 104732101 B CN104732101 B CN 104732101B
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load value
historical
total active
load
net rack
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CN104732101A (en
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谢敏
呼士召
刘明波
占才亮
尹江
尹一江
卢恩
罗文豪
刘嘉宁
钟华赞
潮铸
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South China University of Technology SCUT
Electric Power Dispatch Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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South China University of Technology SCUT
Electric Power Dispatch Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Abstract

The total active mistake load value of system determines method and system in a kind of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, and its method includes：The total active mistake load value of legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, legacy system when determining scheduling operation switchgear in each historical time section；Establish system load value active mistake load value total with system, rack multi-stress and the total active contiguous function initial model for losing load value, system load value and rack multi-stress of system of scheduling operation switchgear；Each contiguous function model according to corresponding to legacy system load value, history rack multi-stress, the total active mistake load value of legacy system, each contiguous function initial model determine the historical time section；The total active mistake load value of current system when determining scheduling operation switchgear according to each contiguous function model of historical time section corresponding to current system load value, current rack multi-stress, current scheduling operating time.This programme, which improves, determines the total active efficiency for losing load value of current system.

Description

Method and system for determining total active and lost load value of system in power grid dispatching operation
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power systems, in particular to a method and a system for determining a total active and lost load value of a system in power grid dispatching operation.
Background
With the rapid increase of the scale of the power grid, the alternating current and direct current lines in the power grid are complicated, the number of power equipment is large, the information of the power grid changes constantly, and the risk of power grid dispatching operation is increased due to frequent natural disasters. Risks are typically quantified by taking the product of the probability of an event occurring and the outcome value of that event. The same is true for the calculation of the scheduling operation risk value of the power grid. Therefore, how to quantify the influence of each step of scheduling operation on the operation of the power grid (i.e. calculation of the consequence value) is the key of risk assessment of the scheduling operation of the power grid. The total active and lost load value of the system is an important consequence value index, and the consequence value is often determined according to the total active and lost load value of the system, so that the risk of the scheduling operation is determined, and early warning is performed.
At present, the calculation of the total active and lost load value of the system is mainly based on a real-time operation mode of a power grid, traditional power flow calculation is combined in an implementation means, the calculation of the lost load value is only modeled into a pure optimal power flow problem, and various mathematical optimization methods are adopted for optimization solution. In the modeling and solving mode, the load flow calculation needs to be called repeatedly for many times, and in a power grid dispatching automation system, when the power grid scale reaches the provincial scale or above, the load flow calculation can be automatically realized for several times in one minute, and the situation that the load flow is not converged exists, so that the existing method cannot meet the requirement of online real-time performance of dispatching operation risk assessment in terms of calculation efficiency.
Disclosure of Invention
Based on this, it is necessary to provide a method and a system for determining a total active and lost load value of a system in a power grid scheduling operation, aiming at a problem that determining the total active and lost load value of the system is inefficient.
A method for determining a total active and lost load value of a system in power grid dispatching operation comprises the following steps:
determining a historical system load value, a historical net rack comprehensive factor and a historical system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system, wherein the historical net rack comprehensive factor represents an influence factor on a primary equipment net rack in operation when one switch equipment is scheduled and operated;
establishing a connection function initial model of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value of the dispatching operation switch equipment, a connection function initial model of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a connection function initial model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor;
determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value corresponding to the scheduling operation switch equipment in the historical time period, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical system load value, the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the historical system total active power loss load value and each connection function initial model, and determining each connection function model corresponding to the historical time period according to the correlation coefficients and the connection function initial models;
and obtaining a current system load value and a current net rack comprehensive factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated at present, and determining a total active and lost load value of the current system when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated according to the current system load value, the current net rack comprehensive factor and each connection function model of a historical time period corresponding to the current scheduling and operating time.
A system total active power loss load value determining system in power grid dispatching operation comprises the following steps:
the historical data acquisition module is used for determining a historical system load value, a historical net rack comprehensive factor and a historical system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system, wherein the historical net rack comprehensive factor represents an influence factor on a primary equipment net rack in operation when one switch equipment is scheduled and operated;
the model determining module is used for establishing a connection function initial model of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value of the dispatching operation switch equipment, a connection function initial model of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value and a connection function initial model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor; determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value corresponding to the scheduling operation switch equipment in the historical time period, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical system load value, the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the historical system total active power loss load value and each connection function initial model, and determining each connection function model corresponding to the historical time period according to the correlation coefficients and the connection function initial models;
and the loss load value determining module is used for acquiring a current system load value and a current net rack comprehensive factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated at present, and determining a current system total active loss load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated according to the current system load value, the current net rack comprehensive factor and each connection function model of a historical time period corresponding to the current scheduling and operating time.
According to the method and the system for determining the total active and lost load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation, historical system load values, historical grid structure comprehensive factors and the total active and lost load value of the historical system when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated in each historical time period are obtained, the connection function models corresponding to each historical time period are determined by combining the connection function initial models, then the current system load value and the current grid structure comprehensive factor when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated are obtained, and the current total active and lost load value of the system when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated is determined according to the current system load value, the current grid structure comprehensive factor and each connection function model of the historical time period corresponding to the current dispatching and operating time. According to the scheme, based on the linkage characteristics among the system load value, the net rack comprehensive factor and the active loss load value, three two-dimensional distribution functions among the system load value, the active loss load value, the net rack comprehensive factor, the active loss load value and the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor are established. Only one load flow calculation and one optimal load shedding calculation are needed, so that the efficiency of determining the total active and lost load value of the current system is improved, and the efficiency of judging the scheduling operation risk of the power grid is improved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of an embodiment of a method for determining a total active power loss load value of a system in power grid dispatching operation according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process of determining a spring sample set according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of the system for determining the total active and lost load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to examples and drawings, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.
As shown in fig. 1, a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the method for determining a total active and lost load value of a system in power grid dispatching operation of the present invention includes the steps of:
step S101: determining a historical system load value, a historical net rack comprehensive factor and a historical system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system, wherein the historical net rack comprehensive factor represents an influence factor on a primary equipment net rack in operation when one switch equipment is scheduled and operated;
a Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) system records historical Data after various scheduling operations, wherein the historical Data comprises scheduling instructions, system load values, tidal current section Data And the like. In order to distinguish historical data from current data, the data obtained from the SCADA are called a historical system load value, a historical grid comprehensive factor and a historical system total active and lost load value, and the currently acquired data are called a current system load value, a current grid comprehensive factor and a current system total active and lost load value. In one embodiment, the historical system load value can be directly extracted from the SCADA, and the system scheduling operation instruction corresponding to the historical system load value can be extracted, and the historical system load value and the scheduling operation instruction at the time are combined into a sample. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a historical system total active and reactive load value, calculating a historical net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to each sample, and setting a scheduling operation instruction, the historical system load value, the historical net rack comprehensive factor and the historical system total active and reactive load value as a sample set. The switchgear includes a circuit breaker and a disconnector. Circuit breakers, also commonly referred to as switches, may include disconnecting switches and grounding switches.
Step S102: establishing a connection function initial model of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value of the dispatching operation switch equipment, a connection function initial model of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a connection function initial model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor;
the system load fluctuation, the grid structure characteristic change caused by operation success and failure and the risk consequence value are mutually related, and the grid structure and the operation characteristic have certain commonality under a specific load level. In order to fully utilize the commonalities, provide operational efficiency, and simultaneously quantify the internal relation among the system load fluctuation, the grid structure change caused by each operation and the corresponding risk consequence value, two-dimensional connection functions (the connection functions can be copula distribution functions) between two pairs are established to describe the linkage among the system load value, the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value (namely the system loss load risk consequence value) more clearly, namely three two-dimensional connection functions among the system load value and the system total active power loss load value, the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and the system load value and the grid comprehensive factor are established.
Since the larger the system load value is, the larger the scale of the equipment put into operation is to ensure safe power supply, and the active load loss value possibly caused by scheduling operation may be increased. Therefore, the three have the correlation characteristic of thick tail at the upper right, and can be simulated by using a Gumbel-Copula distribution function.
Because the correlation coefficient between the system load value and the total system active lost load value, the correlation coefficient between the net rack comprehensive factor and the total system active lost load value, and the correlation coefficient between the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor are unknown, a connection function initial model is firstly established. In one embodiment, the following formula is used to represent the initial model of the connection function of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor:
the following formula is adopted to represent a connection function initial model of the system load value and the total active and lost load value of the system:
the initial model of the connection function of the net rack comprehensive factor and the total active power loss load value of the system is represented by the following formula:
wherein, L represents the system load value when dispatching the operation switch device, psi represents the net rack comprehensive factor when dispatching the operation switch device, PL represents the total system active and lost load value after operating the switch device, C (u) L ,u ψ ) Watch (A)Show u L ,u ψ The probability of (d); c (u) L ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u L ,u PL The probability of (d); c (u) ψ ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u ψ ,u PL The probability of (d); u. of L Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to L; u. u ψ Representing a pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u. of PL Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to PL; theta L-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system ψ-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system L-ψ And the correlation coefficient represents the system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and the net rack comprehensive factor. Wherein u is L ∈[0,1]、u PL ∈[0,1]、u ψ ∈[0,1]。
Step S103: determining a correlation coefficient between a system load value and a system total active lost load value corresponding to the scheduling operation switch equipment in the historical time period, a correlation coefficient between the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active lost load value, and a correlation coefficient between the system load value and the grid comprehensive factor according to the historical system load value, the historical grid comprehensive factor, the historical system total active lost load value and each connection function initial model, and determining each connection function model corresponding to each historical time period according to the correlation coefficients and the connection function initial models;
the purpose of this step is to determine each correlation coefficient corresponding to the historical time period by using the sample set and the established connection function initial model, and further substitute each correlation coefficient into the connection function initial model, thereby obtaining each connection function model corresponding to the historical time period. Each connection function model comprises a connection function model of a system load value and a system total active and lost load value, a connection function model of a net rack comprehensive factor and a system total active and lost load value, and a connection function model of a system load value and a net rack comprehensive factor. Each history section corresponds to a connection function model of the system load value and the total system active and lost load value, a connection function model of the net rack comprehensive factor and the total system active and lost load value, and a connection function model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor. Each connection function initial model comprises a connection function initial model of a system load value and a system total active lost load value, a connection function initial model of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active lost load value, and a connection function initial model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor.
When the historical time is divided into a plurality of time periods, in this way, the connection function model corresponding to each historical time period can be obtained.
Step S104: and obtaining a current system load value and a current net rack comprehensive factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated at present, and determining a total active and lost load value of the current system when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated according to the current system load value, the current net rack comprehensive factor and each connection function model of a historical time period corresponding to the current scheduling and operating time.
The current system load value can be directly acquired. The current net rack comprehensive factor represents an influence factor on a primary equipment net rack in operation when one switching equipment is operated in the current scheduling mode. And determining a corresponding historical time period according to the current scheduling operation time, so that each connection function model corresponding to the historical time period can be obtained, and each connection function model comprises a connection function model of a system load value and a total system active and lost load value, a connection function model of a net rack comprehensive factor and the total system active and lost load value, and a connection function model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor. And then the total active and lost load value of the current system when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated can be determined according to the load value of the current system, the comprehensive factor of the current network frame and each connection function model. After the total active and lost load value of the current system is determined, the risk judgment can be carried out on the scheduling operation according to the total active and lost load value of the current system.
The method for determining the total active power loss load value of the system provided by the embodiment can comprehensively consider factors (such as grid structure change, operation mode adjustment and the like) which are difficult to consider in advanced applications such as conventional power flow calculation, optimal power flow calculation and the like, so that the calculated total active power loss load consequence value of the system can reflect the actual situation of a power grid better. The connection function corresponding to each time period is generated off-line, the on-line calculation part only needs to perform once load flow calculation and once optimal load shedding calculation, the calculation speed is greatly improved, and the real-time on-line engineering requirement can be completely met. In addition, the method for determining the total active power loss load value of the system, which is provided by the application, fuses valuable data information in the excavated historical operation and scheduling operation of the power grid into advanced applications of power systems such as power flow and optimal power flow, and provides a practical and effective aid decision tool for scheduling operators.
The selection of the sample set is important for determining a connection function model of the system load value and the total system active and lost load value, a connection function model of the net rack comprehensive factor and the total system active and lost load value, and a connection function model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor. In one embodiment, the step of determining historical grid synthesis factors for scheduling operation of the switchgear devices in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system comprises:
determining a historical grid combination factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated successfully on a preset date in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ'＝(1+μ 1 +μ 2 )(n' G +n' T +n' L +n' B )
determining historical net rack comprehensive factors when the scheduling operation switch equipment fails on the preset date in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ”＝n” G +n” T +n” L +n” B
wherein ψ ' denotes a history net rack integration factor, n ' at the time of successful scheduling of operation of one switching device ' G 、n' T 、n' L 、n' B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, line data and buses put into operation in the system after the switchgear is successfully scheduled and operated, psi 'represents the historical net rack comprehensive factor when one switchgear fails to be scheduled and operated, n' G 、n” T 、n” L 、n” B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, line data and buses in operation in the system after the dispatching operation of the switch equipment fails,μ 1 a correction weight, mu, representing the influence of said switching device on the type of branch connected after successful operation 2 Indicating the importance level of the load connected to the branch in which the switching device was successfully operated. Specifically, the branch affected after the successful operation of the switching device is determined according to the comparison between a preset network structure diagram and a structure diagram after the successful operation of the switching device. Wherein, mu 1 The setting can be correspondingly preset according to different branches affected. For example, when the affected branch is determined to be a generator, μ 1 Is a preset mu G1 A value; when the affected branch is judged to be a transformer, mu 1 Is a preset mu T1 A value; when the affected branch is judged to be a line, mu 1 Is a preset mu L1 A value; when the affected branch is judged to be the bus, mu 1 Is a preset mu B1 The value is obtained. Mu.s 2 Can be preset according to different load importance levels of the connected branches. The switching devices include circuit breakers and disconnectors. Circuit breakers, also commonly referred to as switches, may include disconnecting switches and grounding switches. ψ' and ψ "are both history rack integration factors, and are represented by different symbols only for distinguishing the operation success state and the operation failure state.
In the embodiment, the grid structure comprehensive factor is defined, and from the two aspects of success and failure of scheduling operation, mathematical models of the grid structure comprehensive factor are respectively established, and the mathematical models can comprehensively consider the switching and connection conditions of primary equipment in a power grid during operation, and the network connection and load grade near the operated equipment.
Specifically, the grid structure of the power grid after the dispatching operation mainly considers the structural situation, that is, the operation situation of the primary equipment in the directly dispatched power grid after the switch, the switching and the grounding switch are operated, that is, the operation situation of the generator, the transformer, the line and the bus in the network. The present embodiment describes the structure of the rack in terms of the number of equipment commissions at a time, wherein only one switchgear is operated per scheduling operation. The lattice structure factor B is defined as follows:
B k ＝n G,k +n T,k +n L,k +n B,k
k denotes a switching device. Variable n G,k 、n T,k 、n L,k 、n B,k Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, lines and buses put into operation in the power grid after the switchgear k is operated.
The space frame structure factor B k Only the basic structural characteristics of the net rack are reflected, and the influence of the operation of the operated equipment k on the net rack is not reflected. On the basis, defining a net rack comprehensive factor psi k Consider two cases of operation success and operation failure:
case of successful operation:
ψ k ＝(1+μ 1 +μ 2 )B k
wherein, mu 1 The modification weight factor indicating that the device k affects the type of the connected branch after successful operation may be, for example, a value: when the branch is a line, mu 1 Is 0.2; when the branch is a generator or a transformer, mu 1 Is 0.6; when the branch is a bus, mu 1 Is 1.0. Mu.s 2 After the device k is successfully operated, the load importance level of the connection on the branch connected to the device k is represented, for example, the values may be: 0.2 (tertiary load), 0.6 (secondary load), 1.0 (primary load).
Case of operation failure:
ψ k ＝B k
that is, in case of operation failure, the network structure does not change, and the grid structure factor does not need to be corrected.
The data acquisition and monitoring control system cannot necessarily acquire the power flow section data in real time, and the power flow section data can be acquired only through calculation. In one embodiment, the step of dividing historical time by seasons to determine historical time periods, and determining a historical system load value and a historical system total active and loss load value when the switchgear is scheduled to operate in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system includes:
acquiring historical system load values when the dispatching operation of the switch equipment is executed on a preset date in each season from the data acquisition and monitoring control system, and judging whether the data acquisition and monitoring control system has the tide section data after the dispatching operation is executed in the time period;
if no load flow section data exists, calculating a system load flow corresponding to the historical system load value after scheduling operation is executed by adopting a simulation mode, if the load flow is converged, the total active and lost load value of the historical system is zero, and if the load flow is not converged, performing optimal load shedding calculation to determine the total active and lost load value of the historical system;
and if the current section data exist, determining the total active and lost load value of the historical system according to the current section data. For example, when the power flow is converged, the total active and lost load value of the historical system is zero, and if the power flow is not converged, the optimal load shedding calculation is performed to determine the total active and lost load value of the historical system.
The sample set of the embodiment is generated according to seasons, and based on historical scheduling and operation data of a power grid, a seasonal sample selection method is provided to estimate correlation coefficients in three two-dimensional Gumbel-Copula distribution functions of a system load value and a total system active power loss load value, a net rack comprehensive factor and a total system active power loss load value, and a system load value and a net rack comprehensive factor. Therefore, the connection function models generated in step S103 can also be generated by seasons, that is, the connection function models can be constructed from the current season samples in four seasons, namely, spring (3-5 months), summer (6-8 months), autumn (9-11 months), and winter (12-2 months).
Further, the historical system load values comprise peak loads, waist loads and base loads, and the historical system total active and lost load value corresponding to the peak loads, the historical system total active and lost load value corresponding to the waist loads and the historical system total active and lost load value corresponding to the base loads in the same season are respectively calculated;
determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal peak load and a system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the peak load, the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the historical net rack comprehensive factor and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal peak load;
determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal waist load and a system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the waist load, the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the waist load and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal waist load;
determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal base load and a system total active and lost load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active and lost load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the base load, the historical system total active and lost load value corresponding to the base load, and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal base load;
when the total active power loss load value of the current system is calculated, judging the season of the current time, the peak load, the waist load or the base load of the current system load value, selecting a corresponding connection function model according to the judgment result, and determining the total active power loss load value of the current system according to the connection function model. Namely, the season of the current time is judged, whether the system load value belongs to peak load, waist load or base load is judged, and a corresponding connection function is determined according to the season and the system load value.
The purpose of this embodiment is to divide the system load value into peak load, waist load and base load in the same season, and can determine three copula functions corresponding to the peak load, three copula functions corresponding to the waist load and three copula functions corresponding to the base load in the same season.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process of determining a spring sample set according to an embodiment of the present invention. First, a plurality of typical days of the spring of the last year are selected (the set variable D represents the number of the selected typical days), and the typical days can embody the load characteristics of working days and rest days and the grid structure and operation characteristics of the system. And when the peak load, the waist load and the base load in each typical day are extracted simultaneously, the scheduling instructions are executed correspondingly. The dispatching command is a single command, and one command corresponds to one switch device. And forming a set of system load values of a typical day and corresponding scheduling instructions, and generating a sample set of spring. Collecting current section data after the operation of the dispatching order at that time from an SCADA historical database; if the power flow section data cannot be obtained, adopting a simulation mode, correspondingly scheduling the executed system power flow when calculating system load values such as peak load, waist load, base load and the like of each typical day, and if the power flow is converged, setting the total active and lost load value of the system to be 0; otherwise, if the power flow is not converged, calling the optimal load shedding model, and calculating the total active and lost load value of the system corresponding to the sample. Thus, a typical day may contain a plurality of samples, which are determined by the number of cross-sectional formats of system load values such as peak load, waist load, and base load taken on that day (i.e., default operation of a device at a system load value). And then calculating a net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to each sample, and finally forming a complete sample set in spring.
The optimal load shedding model is as follows:
optimizing the target: minimum total load shedding (power failure) of power grid
Wherein, Δ P Li 、ΔQ Li Respectively expressing the load active and reactive power reduction (MW, mvar), N b Representing the number of selected load shedding nodes in the system.
Constraint conditions are as follows:
(1) node active power balance:
(2) node reactive power balance:
(3) the active power output of the generator is constrained:
(4) adjustable reactive power output constraint:
(5) and (3) line power flow constraint:
(6) node voltage constraint:
(7) the load node cuts off active load quantity constraint:
(8) and (3) cutting reactive load quantity constraint by the load node:
wherein, P Li 、Q Li Respectively representing the active power and the reactive power of each load;respectively representing the upper limit and the lower limit of the active output of the generator;respectively representing the upper limit and the lower limit of the reactive output of the generator;respectively representing the upper limit and the lower limit of the active transmission capacity of the transmission line;respectively representing the upper limit and the lower limit of the voltage amplitude of each node;the upper limits of the reduction of the active and reactive loads are indicated, respectively. And the control variable is the load-shedding active power, andthe load shedding reactive power is cut off in proportion according to a method of a fixed power factor.
Therefore, the optimal load shedding model is essentially an optimal power flow, a BARON solution machine of GAMS software can be directly called to solve, a target function corresponding to the optimal solution is the total active and lost load value of the system, namely,
since different equipment may be operated at different system load values on the same typical day, the actual number of samples in the season isWherein M is d Representing the number of typical system load values, or the number of devices operated, extracted on the d-th typical day.
Therefore, the samples corresponding to the season can be represented by table 1, and for convenience of description, the subscripts of L, ψ, PL in the following table are uniformly numbered according to the number of selected samples.
TABLE 1
Then, a maximum likelihood method is adopted to estimate a correlation coefficient theta in each connection function initial model L-PL 、θ ψ-PL 、θ L-ψ . Thus, three copula functions corresponding to peak load, three copula functions corresponding to waist load and three copula functions corresponding to base load in spring are formed, and the rest can be analogized in other seasons.
After the copula function corresponding to each season is obtained, the total active and lost load value of the current system can be determined by using the load value of the current system, the comprehensive factor of the current net rack and the copula function corresponding to the season. The current system load value can be directly acquired, and the current net rack comprehensive factor can be acquired by a method for solving the historical net rack comprehensive factor.
For example, the net rack comprehensive factor when the preset date in the season is used for dispatching and operating the switch equipment is determined by the following formula:
ψ'＝(1+μ 1 +μ 2 )(n' G +n' T +n' L +n' B )
determining a net rack comprehensive factor when the scheduling operation of the switch equipment on the preset date fails in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ＝n G +n T +n L +n B
wherein psi represents a net rack integration factor when the switch equipment is successfully scheduled and operated, and n represents a net rack integration factor when the switch equipment is successfully scheduled and operated G 、n T 、n L 、n B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, line data and buses, mu, put into operation in the system after the switch equipment is successfully scheduled and operated 1 A correction weight, mu, representing the influence of the switching device on the type of branch connected after successful operation 2 Indicating the level of importance of the load connected on the branch to which the switchgear operates successfully.
When the dispatching operation of the switch equipment fails, psi represents a net rack comprehensive factor when the dispatching operation of the switch equipment fails, n G 、n T 、n L 、n B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, line data and buses in operation in the system after the dispatching operation of the switchgear fails.
In one embodiment, the following formula may be used to determine the current system total active and loss load value when the switchgear is scheduled for operation:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein, E [ PL]The method comprises the steps that a current system total active power loss load value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated is shown, PL shows a corresponding system total active power loss load estimated value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated, and the system total active power loss load estimated value is obtained by adopting regression prediction on the corresponding system total active power loss load value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated; l represents the current system load value when the switch device is scheduled to operate currently, psi represents the current grid integration factor when the switch device is scheduled to operate currently, C (u) L ,u ψ ) Indicates the occurrence of u L ,u ψ The probability of (d); c (u) L ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u L ,u PL The probability of (d); c (u) ψ ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u ψ ,u PL The probability of (d); u. u L Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to L; u. of ψ Representing a pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u. of PL Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to PL; theta L-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system ψ-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system L-ψ And the correlation coefficient represents the system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and the net rack comprehensive factor.
And the PL is an active-lost load mean value corresponding to the expected fault set under the condition that the system operation mode is not considered, and is obtained by adopting all historical sample PL values corresponding to the same time of all typical days in the season and carrying out regression prediction according to the change of the system load level. Specifically, when determining PL, performing load flow calculation on the network after the current scheduling operation, and if the load flow is converged, then PL =0; and if the trend is not converged, obtaining the trend from the historical sample set.
This exampleIn (1),the probability that the system can lose load after comprehensively considering relevant factors such as system load, grid structure and the like is shown, if the value of the formula is less than or equal to 0, the system load loss can be avoided through the adjustment of the system operation mode (even if the load flow calculation is not converged at the moment, PL is not converged at the moment&gt, 0); on the contrary, if the value of the formula&gt and 0, the condition that the load loss value can still occur even through the adjustment of the system operation mode is shown.
The various technical features in the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, so long as there is no conflict or contradiction between the combinations of the features, but the combination is limited by the space and is not described one by one, and therefore, any combination of the various technical features in the above embodiments also belongs to the scope disclosed in the present specification.
Based on the method for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation, the invention further provides a system for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation, as shown in fig. 3, which is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of the system for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation, and the method comprises the following steps:
a historical data obtaining module 310, configured to determine, according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system, a historical system load value, a historical grid structure comprehensive factor, and a historical system total active power loss load value when the switching device is scheduled to be operated in each historical time period, where the historical grid structure comprehensive factor represents an influence factor on a primary device grid structure in operation when one switching device is scheduled to be operated;
the model determining module 320 is configured to establish a connection function initial model of a system load value and a system total active and reactive load value of the dispatching operation switch device, a connection function initial model of a grid structure comprehensive factor and the system total active and reactive load value, and a connection function initial model of the system load value and the grid structure comprehensive factor; determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value corresponding to the scheduling operation switch equipment in the historical time period, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical system load value, the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the historical system total active power loss load value and each connection function initial model, and determining each connection function model corresponding to the historical time period according to the correlation coefficients and the connection function initial models;
and the loss load value determining module 330 is configured to obtain a current system load value and a current grid structure comprehensive factor when the switching device is currently scheduled and operated, and determine a current total active loss load value of the system when the switching device is scheduled and operated according to the current system load value, the current grid structure comprehensive factor, and each of the connection function models in the historical time period corresponding to the current scheduling and operating time.
In one embodiment, the system further comprises a historical time period determining module, which is used for dividing the historical time by seasons and determining the historical time period;
the historical data acquisition module is used for:
acquiring a historical system load value when the dispatching operation of the switch equipment is executed on a preset date in each season from the data acquisition and monitoring control system, and judging whether the data acquisition and monitoring control system has the current section data after the dispatching operation is executed in the time period;
if no load flow section data exists, calculating a system load flow corresponding to the historical system load value after scheduling operation is executed by adopting a simulation mode, if the load flow is converged, the total active and lost load value of the historical system is zero, and if the load flow is not converged, performing optimal load shedding calculation to determine the total active and lost load value of the historical system;
if the current section data exist, determining a total active and lost load value of a historical system according to the current section data;
determining a historical grid combination factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated successfully on a preset date in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ'＝(1+μ 1 +μ 2 )(n' G +n' T +n' L +n' B )
determining a historical grid combination factor when the scheduling operation of the switch equipment fails on a preset date in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ”＝n” G +n” T +n” L +n” B
wherein ψ ' denotes a history rack integration factor, n ' when one switching device is successfully scheduled to be operated ' G 、n' T 、n' L 、n' B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, line data and buses put into operation in the system after the switchgear is successfully scheduled and operated, psi 'represents the historical net rack comprehensive factor when one switchgear fails to be scheduled and operated, n' G 、n” T 、n” L 、n” B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, line data and buses, mu, put into operation in the system after the failure of the dispatching operation of the switch equipment 1 A correction weight, mu, representing the influence of the switching device on the type of branch connected after successful operation 2 Indicating the level of importance of the load connected on the branch to which the switchgear operates successfully.
In one embodiment, the historical system load values include peak load, waist load and base load, and the historical data acquisition module calculates a historical system total active and loss load value corresponding to the peak load, a historical system total active and loss load value corresponding to the waist load and a historical system total active and loss load value corresponding to the base load in the same season respectively;
the model determining module is used for determining a correlation coefficient between a system load value corresponding to the seasonal peak load and the system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient between the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient between the system load value and the grid comprehensive factor according to the historical grid comprehensive factor, the peak load and the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the peak load, and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal peak load; determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal waist load and a system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the waist load, the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the waist load and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal waist load; determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal base load and a system total active and lost load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active and lost load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the base load, the historical system total active and lost load value corresponding to the base load, and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal base load;
and the loss load value determining module is used for judging the season of the current time, the peak load, the waist load or the base load to which the current system load value belongs, selecting a corresponding connection function model according to the judgment result, and determining the total active loss load value of the current system according to the connection function model.
In one embodiment, the loss load value determining module is configured to determine the current total system active loss load value when the switching device is scheduled to operate by using the following formula:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein, E [ PL]Indicating the current system total active and dead load value when the switch equipment is operated in dispatching mode, indicating the corresponding system total active and dead load estimated value when the switch equipment is operated in dispatching mode, wherein the system total active and dead load estimated value is when the switch equipment is operated in dispatching modeThe value obtained by regression prediction is adopted for the corresponding system total active power loss load value when the switch equipment is operated in the front dispatching mode; l represents the current system load value when the switch device is scheduled to operate currently, psi represents the current grid integration factor when the switch device is scheduled to operate currently, C (u) L ,u ψ ) Indicates the occurrence of u L ,u ψ The probability of (d); c (u) L ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u L ,u PL The probability of (d); c (u) ψ ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u ψ ,u PL The probability of (d); u. of L Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to L; u. u ψ Representing a pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u. of PL Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to PL; theta.theta. L-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system ψ-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system L-ψ And the correlation coefficient represents the system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and the net rack comprehensive factor.
The system for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation and the method for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation are in one-to-one correspondence, and the related technical characteristics and the technical effects in the embodiment of the method for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation are all applicable to the embodiment of the system for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation, and are not described again.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be noted that various changes and modifications can be made by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the invention, and these changes and modifications are all within the scope of the invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. A method for determining a total active and lost load value of a system in power grid dispatching operation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining a historical system load value, a historical net rack comprehensive factor and a historical system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system, wherein the historical net rack comprehensive factor represents an influence factor on a primary equipment net rack in operation when one switch equipment is scheduled and operated;
establishing a connection function initial model of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value of the dispatching operation switch equipment, a connection function initial model of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a connection function initial model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor;
determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value corresponding to the scheduling operation switch equipment in the historical time period, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical system load value, the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the historical system total active power loss load value and each connection function initial model, and determining each connection function model corresponding to the historical time period according to the correlation coefficients and the connection function initial models;
and obtaining a current system load value and a current net rack comprehensive factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated currently, and determining a current system total active power loss load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated currently according to the current system load value, the current net rack comprehensive factor and each connection function model of a historical time period corresponding to current scheduling operation time.
2. The method for determining the total active and loss load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation according to claim 1, wherein the step of determining the historical grid integration factor when the switching device is dispatched and operated in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system comprises the following steps:
determining a historical net rack comprehensive factor when the scheduling operation of the switch equipment is successful on a preset date in a season by adopting the following formula:
ψ'＝(1+μ 1 +μ 2 )(n' G +n' T +n' L +n' B )
determining historical net rack comprehensive factors when the scheduling operation switch equipment fails on the preset date in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ”＝n” G +n” T +n” L +n” B
wherein ψ ' denotes a history net rack integration factor, n ' at the time of successful scheduling of operation of one switching device ' G 、n' T 、n' L 、n' B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, lines and buses in operation in the system after the switch equipment is successfully scheduled and operated, psi 'represents the historical net rack comprehensive factor when one switch equipment fails to be scheduled and operated, n' G 、n” T 、n” L 、n” B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, lines and buses, mu, put into operation in the system after the failure of the dispatching operation switch equipment 1 A correction weight, mu, representing the influence of said switching device on the type of branch connected after successful operation 2 Indicating the level of importance of the load connected on the branch to which the switchgear operates successfully.
3. The method for determining the total active and reactive power load loss value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation according to claim 1, wherein historical time is divided according to seasons to determine historical time periods, and the step of determining the historical system load value and the historical system total active and reactive power load loss value when the switching equipment is dispatched and operated in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system comprises the following steps:
acquiring historical system load values when the dispatching operation of the switch equipment is executed on a preset date in each season from the data acquisition and monitoring control system, and judging whether the data acquisition and monitoring control system has the tide section data after the dispatching operation is executed in the time period;
if no load flow section data exists, calculating a system load flow corresponding to the historical system load value after scheduling operation is executed by adopting a simulation mode, if the load flow is converged, the total active and lost load value of the historical system is zero, and if the load flow is not converged, performing optimal load shedding calculation to determine the total active and lost load value of the historical system;
and if the current section data exist, determining the total active and lost load value of the historical system according to the current section data.
4. The method for determining the total active and reactive load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation according to claim 3, wherein the historical system load values comprise peak loads, waist loads and base loads, and the historical system total active and reactive load value corresponding to the peak loads, the historical system total active and reactive load value corresponding to the waist loads and the historical system total active and reactive load value corresponding to the base loads in the same season are respectively calculated;
determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal peak load and a system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the peak load, the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the historical net rack comprehensive factor and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal peak load;
determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal waist load and a system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the waist load, the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the waist load and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal waist load;
determining a correlation coefficient between a system load value corresponding to the seasonal base load and a system total active and reactive load value, a correlation coefficient between the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active and reactive load value, and a correlation coefficient between the system load value and the grid comprehensive factor according to the historical grid comprehensive factor, the base load, the historical system total active and reactive load value corresponding to the base load and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal base load;
when the total active power loss load value of the current system is calculated, the season of the current time and the current system load value which belongs to peak load, waist load or base load are judged, a corresponding connection function model is selected according to the judgment result, and the total active power loss load value of the current system is determined according to the connection function model.
5. The method for determining the total active and lost load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that the connection function initial model of the system load value and the grid structure comprehensive factor is represented by the following formula:
the following formula is adopted to represent a connection function initial model of the system load value and the total active and lost load value of the system:
the initial model of the connection function of the net rack comprehensive factor and the total active and lost load value of the system is expressed by the following formula:
wherein, L represents the system load value when dispatching the operation switch device, psi represents the net rack comprehensive factor when dispatching the operation switch device, PL represents the total system active and lost load value after operating the switch device, C (u) L ,u ψ ) Indicates the occurrence of u L ,u ψ The probability of (d); c (u) L ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u L ,u PL The probability of (d); c (u) ψ ,u PL ) Indicates the occurrence of u ψ ,u PL The probability of (d); u. of L Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to L; u. u ψ Representing a pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u. of PL Representing a false corresponding to PLA random number; theta L-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system ψ-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active power loss load value of the system L-ψ And the correlation coefficient represents the system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and the net rack comprehensive factor.
6. The method for determining the total system active and loss load value in the power grid dispatching operation according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that the current total system active and loss load value when the switchgear is dispatched and operated is determined by using the following formula:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein, E [ PL]The method comprises the steps that a current system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated is shown, PL shows a corresponding system total active and lost load estimated value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated at present, and the system total active and lost load estimated value is obtained by adopting regression prediction on the corresponding system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated at present; l denotes a current system load value when the operation switching devices are currently scheduled, ψ denotes a current rack integration factor when the operation switching devices are currently scheduled,of LTo the power of the wave,representing psiThe power; u. of L Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to L; u. of ψ Representing a pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u. of PL Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to PL; theta L-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system ψ-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system L-ψ And the correlation coefficient represents the system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and the net rack comprehensive factor.
7. A system total active power loss load value determining system in power grid dispatching operation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the historical data acquisition module is used for determining a historical system load value, a historical net rack comprehensive factor and a historical system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated in each historical time period according to historical data in the data acquisition and monitoring control system, wherein the historical net rack comprehensive factor represents an influence factor on a primary equipment net rack in operation when one switch equipment is scheduled and operated;
the model determining module is used for establishing a connection function initial model of a system load value and a system total active power loss load value of the dispatching operation switch equipment, a connection function initial model of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value and a connection function initial model of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor; determining a correlation coefficient between a system load value and a system total active lost load value corresponding to the scheduling operation switch equipment in the historical time period, a correlation coefficient between the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active lost load value, and a correlation coefficient between the system load value and the grid comprehensive factor according to the historical system load value, the historical grid comprehensive factor, the historical system total active lost load value and each connection function initial model, and determining each connection function model corresponding to the historical time period according to the correlation coefficients and the connection function initial models;
and the loss load value determining module is used for acquiring a current system load value and a current net rack comprehensive factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated at present, and determining a current system total active loss load value when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated according to the current system load value, the current net rack comprehensive factor and each connection function model of a historical time period corresponding to the current scheduling and operating time.
8. The system for determining the total active and loss load value in the power grid scheduling operation according to claim 7, further comprising a historical time period determining module, wherein the historical time period determining module is used for dividing historical time according to seasons to determine a historical time period;
the historical data acquisition module is used for:
acquiring historical system load values when the dispatching operation of the switch equipment is executed on a preset date in each season from the data acquisition and monitoring control system, and judging whether the data acquisition and monitoring control system has the tide section data after the dispatching operation is executed in the time period;
if no load flow section data exists, calculating a system load flow corresponding to the historical system load value after scheduling operation is executed by adopting a simulation mode, if the load flow is converged, the total active and lost load value of the historical system is zero, and if the load flow is not converged, performing optimal load shedding calculation to determine the total active and lost load value of the historical system;
if the current section data exist, determining a total active and lost load value of a historical system according to the current section data;
determining a historical grid combination factor when the switch equipment is scheduled and operated successfully on a preset date in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ'＝(1+μ 1 +μ 2 )(n' G +n' T +n' L +n' B )
determining a historical grid combination factor when the scheduling operation of the switch equipment fails on a preset date in the season by adopting the following formula:
ψ”＝n” G +n” T +n” L +n” B
wherein ψ ' denotes a history net rack integration factor, n ' at the time of successful scheduling of operation of one switching device ' G 、n' T 、n' L 、n' B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, lines and buses in operation in the system after the switch equipment is successfully scheduled and operated, psi 'represents a historical net rack comprehensive factor when one switch equipment fails to be scheduled and operated, n' G 、n” T 、n” L 、n” B Respectively representing the number of generators, transformers, lines and buses in operation in the system after the failure of the dispatching operation of the switch equipment 1 A correction weight, mu, representing the influence of said switching device on the type of branch connected after successful operation 2 Indicating the level of importance of the load connected on the branch to which the switchgear operates successfully.
9. The system for determining the total active and loss load value of the system in the power grid dispatching operation as claimed in claim 8, wherein the historical system load values comprise peak load, waist load and base load;
the historical data acquisition module respectively calculates a historical system total active and dead load value corresponding to peak load, a historical system total active and dead load value corresponding to waist load and a historical system total active and dead load value corresponding to base load in the same season;
the model determining module is used for determining a correlation coefficient between a system load value corresponding to the seasonal peak load and the system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient between the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient between the system load value and the grid comprehensive factor according to the historical grid comprehensive factor, the peak load and the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the peak load, and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal peak load; determining a correlation coefficient of a system load value corresponding to the seasonal waist load and a system total active power loss load value, a correlation coefficient of a net rack comprehensive factor and the system total active power loss load value, and a correlation coefficient of the system load value and the net rack comprehensive factor according to the historical net rack comprehensive factor, the waist load, the historical system total active power loss load value corresponding to the waist load and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal waist load; determining a correlation coefficient between a system load value corresponding to the seasonal base load and a system total active and reactive load value, a correlation coefficient between the grid comprehensive factor and the system total active and reactive load value, and a correlation coefficient between the system load value and the grid comprehensive factor according to the historical grid comprehensive factor, the base load, the historical system total active and reactive load value corresponding to the base load and each connection function initial model, and obtaining a connection function model corresponding to the seasonal base load;
and the loss load value determining module is used for judging whether the current time is in the season and the current system load value belongs to peak load, waist load or base load, selecting a corresponding connection function model according to the judgment result, and determining the total active loss load value of the current system according to the connection function model.
10. The system for determining the total active and lost load value in the power grid dispatching operation according to any one of claims 7 to 9, wherein the lost load value determining module is configured to determine the current total active and lost load value of the system when the switchgear is dispatched and operated by using the following formula:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
wherein, E [ PL]The method comprises the steps that a current system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated is shown, PL shows a corresponding system total active and lost load estimated value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated at present, and the system total active and lost load estimated value is obtained by adopting regression prediction on the corresponding system total active and lost load value when the switch equipment is dispatched and operated at present; l denotes a current system load value when the operation switching devices are currently scheduled, ψ denotes a current rack integration factor when the operation switching devices are currently scheduled,of LTo the power of the above, the first order,representing psiThe power; u. of L Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to L; u. of ψ Representing a pseudo random number corresponding to ψ; u. of PL Represents a pseudo-random number corresponding to PL; theta L-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system ψ-PL A correlation coefficient theta representing a net rack comprehensive factor corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and a total active and lost load value of the system L-ψ And the correlation coefficient represents the system load value corresponding to the dispatching operation switch equipment and the net rack comprehensive factor.
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