CN104615885B - A kind of general short-term earthquake prediction method in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake - Google Patents
A kind of general short-term earthquake prediction method in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake general short-term earthquake prediction method, including：Some monitoring points are set in the general easily shampoo domain in shallow lake lake, meteorologic parameter and water environment parameter are measured；Using space lattice division and interpolation algorithm, the water environment parameter of monitoring point is interpolated into full lake, primary condition of its spatial distribution as Water Quality Numerical Model；Using following three days wind field spatial and temporal distributions as model external stress, drive three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model to carry out computing, obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of following three days shallow lake chlorophyll as and dissolved oxygen concentration；Using the spatial and temporal distributions of chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentration, probability empirical equation is established with reference to meteorologic parameter, the general easily shampoo domain in following three days lakes is calculated and the general probability in lake occurs；The region larger for the general probability in lake occurs, further determines that and the general position in lake and area occurs.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the short-term earthquake prediction method that a kind of nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake is general, belong to environmental science with
Engineering discipline basic theory and applied basic research technical field.
Background technology
In the past 20 years, China In Middle And Lower Reaches of Changjiang River shallow lake water environmental problems are on the rise, in summer and autumn by lake water
The breakout of cyanobacteria blooms that eutrophication triggers happens occasionally, and seriously affects water quality landscape, or even jeopardize water supply security.By blue algae water
" lake is general " that China triggers, which is lake eutrophication water body, largely to be broken out in algae, gather and death after, in suitable meteorology, the hydrology
Under the conditions of, the sulphur ether material such as biochemical reaction, release sulfide is produced under anoxic and anaerobic condition with the organic matter in bed mud,
Brown-black is formed with " the Heisui River group " of stench, so as to cause water quality to deteriorate rapidly, the ecosystem is subject to heavy damage.With
Exemplified by Taihu Lake, in by the end of May, 2007, and nearby generation lake is general by Taihu Lake tribute arm of lake Wuxi City Nan Quanshuichang, makes Wuxi Taihu Lake drinking water water
Source water quality drastically deteriorate and smelly, cause Wuxi water supply crisis, be severely impacted nearly 2,000,000 population lives of Wuxi City.
Between 2008 to 2014 spring and summers, the general phenomenon in lake extended by cyanobacterial bloom was never interrupted, and 1-6 days duration is not
Deng wherein maximum flood surface product is up to 17km2, seriously affected Taihu Lake aquatic ecosystem.
It is contemplated that either lake eutrophication problem, or the general problem in lake, can not be solved at all in a short time
Certainly, all will always in the presence of and threaten shallow lake water environment and water supply security.In order to avoid the generation again of water critical incident,
Ensure the safety of eutrophic lake drinking water, it is necessary to develop the general prediction and warning technology of cyanobacterial bloom and lake, in certain model
In enclosing, the time for occurring, developing general to cyanobacterial bloom and lake, spatial distribution characteristic are simulated and analyzed, and are government department
High-speed decision and emergency measure provide theoretical foundation, improve the reply Governance Ability of government, at utmost reduce its ecological hazard
And health risk.
Prediction and warning technical research at present for cyanobacterial bloom is more, but for the general research in lake, rest on more with
Track is observed and mechanism study aspect, really before disaster generation, applied to the general prediction and warning practice in lake, and regularly publishes lake
General forecast it is less.The shallow lake in China is whether important water head site and tourist district, substantial amounts of cyanobacteria can be in intakes mostly
Or tourist district accumulates to form disastrous wawter bloom, influences water quality and landscape, if formation lake is general, triggers water supply crisis, becomes puzzled
The problem of local administrative department.Based on above-mentioned technical background, it is necessary to it is pre- to establish the prediction that one workable, timeliness is strong
Alarm method, the short-term dynamic prediction to the general probability of happening in lake, generation area and area is realized in summer and autumn, so as to be shallow water lake
The daily management mission of pool provides favourable scientific basis.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide the short-term earthquake prediction method that a kind of nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake is general.First
Using the wind field in weather forecast as driving force, shallow lake three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-water quality couple numerical approach is solved, calculates future
The spatial and temporal distributions of three days shallow lake chlorophyll as and dissolved oxygen concentration, then in conjunction with three days following meteorological factor (wind speed, drop
Rain etc.) information establishes empirical equation, the general probability in the general easily shampoo domain generation lake in calculating lake, and further determines that the general generation position in lake
And area.
The above-mentioned purpose of the present invention realized by the technical characteristics of independent claims, and dependent claims are with alternative or have
The mode of profit develops the technical characteristic of independent claims.
To reach above-mentioned purpose, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is as follows：
A kind of general short-term earthquake prediction method in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake, including：In the general easily hair in shallow lake lake
Waters sets monitoring point, to meteorologic parameter (such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction) and water environment parameter (such as water temperature, transparency, chlorophyll a
Concentration, dissolved oxygen solubility and nutrient concentration) it is measured；Using space lattice division and interpolation technique, by the water of monitoring point
Environmental parameter is interpolated into full lake, primary condition of its spatial distribution as Water Quality Numerical Model；With space division during following three days wind fields
Cloth drives three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model to carry out computing, obtains following three days shallow lake leaves as model-driven power
The spatial and temporal distributions of green element a and dissolved oxygen concentration；Using the spatial and temporal distributions of chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentration, built with reference to meteorologic parameter
Vertical probability empirical equation, calculates the general easily shampoo domain in following three days lakes and the general probability in lake occurs；It is larger for the general probability in lake occurs
Region, further determines that and the general position in lake and area occurs.
As further example, the specific implementation of preceding method includes：
1st, in the general easily shampoo domain setting monitoring site in lake, meteorologic parameter and water environment parameter are measured
Based on the understanding in the domain that easily floods to shallow lake, several monitoring points are set paying close attention to lake region respectively, and can
Carry out manually inspection in situ.At every bit position, using multi-parameter water quality instrument (YSI6600-V2) (YellowSpring
Instruments, USA) measure water quality parameter, such as chlorophyll-a concentration, dissolved oxygen concentration, saturation dissolved oxygen, using Sai Shi
Disk method measures water transparency, and measures the indexs such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction, water temperature immediately.Gathering Surface water sample, (10-30cm is deep
Degree) 1 liter, sample is filling to be immediately placed in sampling bottle in the incubator with ice chest, and nitrogen in laboratory, phosphorus battalion are used for after disembarkation
The measure of the index such as salt and dissolved organic carbon is supported, the analysis of sample is carried out according to lake ecosystem observation procedure.
2nd, using space lattice division and interpolation technique, the water environment parameter measured in monitoring point is interpolated into full lake
According to the on-site measurement to the general easily shampoo domain landform in lake, full lake region domain is divided using triangular mesh, net
Lattice resolution can be arranged to hundreds of meters and differ to 1 km according to lake region degree of concern and water front degree of crook.Weighed using anti-distance
The water environment parameter value of monitoring site is interpolated on each calculating grid of full lake by weight interpolation algorithm, obtains full lake water environment ginseng
Several initial distribution situations.
3rd, following three days shallow lake chlorophyll as and dissolved oxygen concentration are calculated using three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model
Spatial and temporal distributions.
1) hydrodynamic model
Description shallow lake water movement three-dimensional hydrodynamic force equation in conserva tion form group be：
In formula：U, v, w are the velocity component along x, y, σ direction；ζ is water level；D=h+ ζ are the full depth of water；ρ is density；G is
Acceleration of gravity；F is Ke Shi coefficients；Am、KmFor horizontal, vertical turbulent viscosity.
Governing equation is solved using the finite volume model under unstructured grids.Domain plane is using no knot
Network forming lattice (triangle) subdivision, makes calculating border more accurately be fitted bank circle；Vertical direction is changed using σ coordinate, is made whole
Waters has identical vertical layered number.The N-S equations being homogenized when governing equation is and the turbulent flow closure submodel for closing it, from
Dissipate method and use limited bulk thought, all physical descriptors are arranged on the center of triangular unit.Using inside and outside mould isolation technics pair
The integrated form on each triangular unit of governing equation group carries out numerical solution, first solves two-dimentional external schema and gains freedom
Surface and vertical mean flow rate, the wherein time discrete of external schema use newton forward difference form, and spatial spreading uses second order
The Roe types numerical flux of precision and the burst constant of single order precision approach reconstruct mode；Three-dimensional internal schema is solved again obtains three-dimensional
Flow field, wherein time discrete use newton forward difference form, and space convective term uses the upstreame scheme of second order accuracy, vertical to expand
Dissipate item and use explicit form.Since interior external mold time step is different, in calculating process must in each internal model step-length into
Row is outer, the consistency check in internal model flow field.
2) water quality model
Under the influence of hydrodynamical particular, the transport equation of water quality parameter concentration is：
Wherein C representative species concentration.When C is chlorophyll-a concentration, dynamic response item SKRespectively consider algae growth,
Dead and settlement action.When C is dissolved oxygen concentration, dynamic response item SKConsider that air is oxygen-enriched, photosynthesis in water body respectively
Increase and water plant respiration, BOD degradeds, nitration reaction oxygen consumption and bed mud oxygen demand to dissolved oxygen is to dissolved oxygen
Reduction acts on.The solution procedure of water quality parameter Transport Model takes the discrete way identical with hydrodynamic model internal schema.
3) model-driven power
The external force effect for driving hydrodynamic force-water Quality Coupling Model operation is mainly the wind-stress (V three days followingx, Vy),
Vx, VyAir speed value respectively on x, y direction, unit m/s.
Wind-stress acquisition modes：In Chinese weather net
(http://www.weather.com.cn/html/weather/101190201.shtml) on inquiry future three
The Beaufort scale and wind direction of its wind-force, according to the transformation rule of table 1, by wind-force Pu Fu wind daily in following weather forecast in three days
Wind direction daily in following weather forecast in three days, according to the transformation rule of table 2, is changed angulation by level conversion into resultant wind velocity value V
θ is spent, then Vx=-Vcos θ, Vy=-Vsin θ.
The conversion of 1 Beaufort scale of table and wind speed
| Beaufort scale | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Corresponding wind speed (m/s) | 0.3-1.5 | 1.6-3.3 | 3.4-5.4 | 5.5-7.9 | 8.0-10.7 |
The conversion of 2 wind direction of table and the number of degrees
| Wind direction | East | The southeast | South | Southwest | West | Northwest | North | Northeast |
| Angle | 90 | 135 | 180 | 225 | 270 | 315 | 0 | 45 |
4) the computing flow of model
By model calculation, Quan obtaining following three days lakes each calculates grid inner chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentration with the time
The numerical value of change, and then obtain the spatial and temporal distributions in full lake.
4th, probability empirical equation is established, the general easily shampoo domain in following three days lakes is calculated and the general probability in lake occurs
The general generation in lake is related to several factors, but in short-period forecast, can be without considering on a larger time scale
It is dense to influence factor, the Measures of Algae in Water Body for only filtering out the general generation in rapid contribution lake in several days such as the water nutrition of the general generation in lake
The effect of the meteorological factor such as degree, dissolved oxygen concentration and wind speed, rainfall, therefore the general probability forecast model in algae source property lake is represented by
F=f1(N1t)*f2(V)*f3(R)*f4(N2t)
Wherein f1(N1t) it is probability, f as caused by t moment amount of algae2(V) it is the probability as caused by wind friction velocity, f3
(R) it is the probability as caused by condition of raining, f4(N2t) it is the probability as caused by t moment dissolved oxygen solubility.Four kinds of probability are pressed respectively
Table 3 carries out assignment.Each calculated in full lake and foregoing probability forecast model is utilized on grid, the general of the general generation in Quan Hu lakes can be obtained
Rate is distributed.
3 chlorophyll of table, dissolved oxygen content, wind speed, the corresponding table of the general probability of happening of rainfall and lake
| Chlorophyll (μ g/L) | f(N1t) | Wind-force (wind speed m/s) | f(V) | Rainfall | f(R) | DO(mg/L) | f(N2t) |
| More than 60 | 1 | 1-2 grades (0.3-3.3) | 1 | It is fine, cloudy | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| 50 | 0.9 | 3 grades (3.4-5.4) | 0.9 | Cloudy, light rain | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 40 | 0.8 | 4 grades (5.5-7.9) | 0.8 | Shower, thunder shower | 0.8 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
| 20 | 0.6 | 5 grades (8.0-10.7) | 0.7 | Moderate rain | 0.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 |
| 10 | 0.4 | More than 5 grades (>10.8) | 0.5 | In, big, heavy rain | 0 | 8.0 | 0 |
5th, the region larger for the general probability in lake occurs, further determines that and the general position in lake and area occurs
For lake Fan Yifa lake regions of interest, some sections can be divided into advance, and each section includes some calculating nets
Lattice.It is utilized respectively foregoing probability forecast model and calculates the probability for calculating the general generation in lake on grid covered in per section waters,
If the section existing probability is more than 50% grid, it is general to forecast that lake occurs for this section of waters；Probability is more than 50% in the section
The sum of grid area, that is, the general area in lake occurs.
From the above technical solution of the present invention shows that, general short-term pre- in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake of the invention
Reporting method, based on deterministic models principle, according to algae, the phase interaction of dissolved oxygen concentration and various physical agents, Some Circulating Factors
With relation, hydrodynamics of lake-water quality Numerical coupling model is established, and under appropriate primary condition and boundary condition, with reference to
Meteorologic parameter, using this core of the mathematics Basic equation group of Numerical Methods Solve coupling model, obtains different time and space
The distribution of algae bio amount and dissolved oxygen concentration on scale, so as to fulfill the prediction that lake is general.
In annual shallow lake lake general summer and autumn (April-October) occurred frequently, can set on every Mondays with Thursday according to step
1-5 carries out the general prediction in following three days lakes, and forecast result is fabricated to general half weekly of monitoring and warning in lake, is sent to lake pipes at different levels
Reason department, effectively can provide theoretical foundation for administrative department's high-speed decision and formulation emergency measure, improve the reply of government
Governance Ability, at utmost reduces its ecological hazard and health risk, is provided favorably for the daily management mission of shallow lake
Scientific basis.
It should be appreciated that as long as aforementioned concepts and all combinations additionally conceived that describe in greater detail below are at this
Sample design it is not conflicting in the case of can be viewed as the disclosure subject matter a part.In addition, required guarantor
All combinations of the theme of shield are considered as a part for the subject matter of the disclosure.
Can be more fully appreciated from the following description with reference to attached drawing present invention teach that foregoing and other aspect, reality
Apply example and feature.The feature and/or beneficial effect of other additional aspects such as illustrative embodiments of the present invention will be below
Description in it is obvious, or learnt in practice by the embodiment instructed according to the present invention.
Brief description of the drawings
Attached drawing is not intended to drawn to scale.In the accompanying drawings, each identical or approximately uniform group shown in each figure
It can be indicated by the same numeral into part.For clarity, in each figure, it is not that each part is labeled.
Now, by example and the embodiment of various aspects of the invention will be described in reference to the drawings, wherein：
Fig. 1 is anti-distance weighting interpolation algorithm schematic diagram.
Fig. 2 is shallow lake three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model calculation flow chart.
Fig. 3 is the general inspection region in Taihu Lake lake and monitoring station schematic diagram.
Fig. 4 is the general prediction model mesh generation figure in Taihu Lake lake.
Fig. 5 be on June 12nd, 2014 Taihu Lake chlorophyll concentration and dissolved oxygen concentration full lake interpolation distribution.
Fig. 6 be 13-15 days June Taihu Lake chlorophyll-a concentration and dissolved oxygen concentration model prediction distribution map.
Fig. 7 is determining for the general probability of happening distribution map in Taihu Lake lake on June 13 and the general occurring area in lake.
Fig. 8 is the segmentation division of the general emphasis estimation range in Taihu Lake lake.
Fig. 9 is the general half weekly model of monitoring and warning of Taihu Lake cyanobacteria and lake.
In foregoing diagram 1-9, each coordinate, mark or other expressions, are it is known in the art, not in this example again
Repeat.
Embodiment
In order to know more about the technology contents of the present invention, especially exemplified by specific embodiment and institute's accompanying drawings are coordinated to be described as follows.
Each side with reference to the accompanying drawings to describe the present invention in the disclosure, shown in the drawings of the embodiment of many explanations.
It is not intended to cover all aspects of the invention for embodiment of the disclosure.It should be appreciated that a variety of designs presented hereinbefore and reality
Apply example, and those designs described in more detail below and embodiment can in many ways in any one come it is real
Apply, this is to should be design disclosed in this invention to be not limited to any embodiment with embodiment.In addition, disclosed by the invention one
A little aspects can be used alone, or otherwise any appropriately combined be used with disclosed by the invention.
The present invention gives a kind of nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake general short-term earthquake prediction method, based on deterministic models
Principle, according to algae, dissolved oxygen concentration and various physical agents, the interaction relationship of Some Circulating Factors, establishes lake hydrodynamic force
- water quality Numerical coupling model, and under appropriate primary condition and boundary condition, with reference to meteorologic parameter, utilize numerical method
This core of the mathematics Basic equation group of solution coupling model, obtains algae bio amount and dissolving on different time and space scale
The distribution of oxygen concentration, so as to fulfill the prediction that lake is general.Short-term forecast based on the method realization is as a result, can be in annual shallow lake
Lake general summer and autumn (April-October) occurred frequently, are set to general according to the following three days lakes of step 1-5 progress with Thursday on every Mondays
Prediction, is fabricated to general half weekly of monitoring and warning in lake by forecast result, sends to lake administrative departments at different levels, can be effectively pipe
The high-speed decision of reason department and formulation emergency measure provide theoretical foundation, improve the reply Governance Ability of government, at utmost reduce
Its ecological hazard and health risk, favourable scientific basis is provided for the daily management mission of shallow lake.
As a preferable embodiment proposed by the present invention, what above-mentioned purpose was realized in：In shallow lake lake
General easily shampoo domain setting monitoring point, to meteorologic parameter (temperature, wind speed, wind direction) and water environment parameter (water temperature, transparency, Ye Lv
Plain a concentration, dissolved oxygen solubility and nutrient concentration) it is measured；Then, using space lattice division and interpolation technique, will supervise
The water environment parameter of measuring point is interpolated into full lake, primary condition of its spatial distribution as Water Quality Numerical Model；Again with three days following
Wind field spatial and temporal distributions drive three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model to carry out computing, obtain three days following as model-driven power
The spatial and temporal distributions of shallow lake chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentration；Recycle the spatial and temporal distributions of chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentration, knot
Close meteorologic parameter and establish probability empirical equation, calculate the general easily shampoo domain in following three days lakes and the general probability in lake occurs；Finally, for hair
The larger region of the raw general probability in lake, further determines that and the general position in lake and area occurs.
Shown below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings as exemplary description, the implementation to preceding method is specifically described.
1st, in the general easily shampoo domain setting monitoring site in lake, meteorologic parameter and water environment parameter are measured
Based on the understanding in the domain that easily floods to shallow lake, several monitoring points are set paying close attention to lake region respectively, and can
Carry out manually inspection in situ.At every bit position, using multi-parameter water quality instrument (YSI6600-V2) (YellowSpring
Instruments, USA) measure water quality parameter, such as chlorophyll-a concentration, dissolved oxygen concentration, saturation dissolved oxygen, using Sai Shi
Disk method measures water transparency, and measures the indexs such as temperature, wind speed, wind direction, water temperature immediately.Gathering Surface water sample, (10-30cm is deep
Degree) 1 liter, sample is filling to be immediately placed in sampling bottle in the incubator with ice chest, and nitrogen in laboratory, phosphorus battalion are used for after disembarkation
The measure of the index such as salt and dissolved organic carbon is supported, the analysis of sample is carried out according to lake ecosystem observation procedure.
2nd, using space lattice division and interpolation technique, the water environment parameter measured in monitoring point is interpolated into full lake
According to the on-site measurement to the general easily shampoo domain landform in lake, full lake region domain is divided using triangular mesh, net
Lattice resolution can set scope for 100 meters between 1 km according to lake region degree of concern and water front degree of crook.It is excellent in this example
The water environment parameter value of monitoring site is interpolated on each calculating grid of full lake by choosing using anti-distance weighting interpolation algorithm, is obtained
To the initial distribution situation of full lake water environmental parameter.
The basic implementation method of anti-distance weighting interpolation algorithm is (by taking chlorophyll-a concentration as an example)：If as shown in Figure 1, certain
The chlorophyll-a concentration of one grid element center point O is unknown, and the nearest monitoring point of 3-5 to be chosen a distance O points, meter is weighted to O points
Calculate.Firstly the need of 3-5 nearest monitoring point of detection range O points：1) drawn and justified as search radius using d1, there is A, B, C, D, E, F totally 6
A monitoring point is included in circle, illustrates that radius d1 values are bigger than normal；2) it is d2 (for example taking d1/2) to reduce radius, there is A, C totally 2 point bags
It is contained in circle, illustrates that radius d2 is less than normal；3) it is d3 (for example taking d2*1.7) to expand radius, and having A, B, C, totally 3 points are included in circle
Interior, search terminates；If points are excessive, return and 2) continue search for；If points are inadequate, return and 3) continue search for.
After monitoring point is found out, near according to distance, then weight is small, and distance is remote, then the big principle of weight, calculates the leaf of O points
Green element a concentration, i.e.,：
Wherein ChlaO、ChlaA、ChlaB、ChlaCThe chlorophyll-a concentration value of point O, A, B, C, r are represented respectively1、r2、r3Point
Not Dai Biao 3 points away from A, B, C of point O distance.
3rd, following three days shallow lake chlorophyll as and dissolved oxygen concentration are calculated using three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model
Spatial and temporal distributions.
1) hydrodynamic model
Description shallow lake water movement three-dimensional hydrodynamic force equation in conserva tion form group be：
In formula：U, v, w are the velocity component along x, y, σ direction；ζ is water level；D=h+ ζ are the full depth of water；ρ is density；G is
Acceleration of gravity；F is Ke Shi coefficients；Am、KmFor horizontal, vertical turbulent viscosity.
Governing equation is solved using the finite volume model under unstructured grids.Domain plane is using no knot
Network forming lattice (triangle) subdivision, makes calculating border more accurately be fitted bank circle；Vertical direction is changed using σ coordinate, is made whole
Waters has identical vertical layered number.The N-S equations being homogenized when governing equation is and the turbulent flow closure submodel for closing it, from
Dissipate method and use limited bulk thought, all physical descriptors are arranged on the center of triangular unit.Using inside and outside mould isolation technics pair
The integrated form on each triangular unit of governing equation group carries out numerical solution, first solves two-dimentional external schema and gains freedom
Surface and vertical mean flow rate, the wherein time discrete of external schema use newton forward difference form, and spatial spreading uses second order
The Roe types numerical flux of precision and the burst constant of single order precision approach reconstruct mode；Three-dimensional internal schema is solved again obtains three-dimensional
Flow field, wherein time discrete use newton forward difference form, and space convective term uses the upstreame scheme of second order accuracy, vertical to expand
Dissipate item and use explicit form.Since interior external mold time step is different, in calculating process must in each internal model step-length into
Row is outer, the consistency check in internal model flow field.
2) water quality model
Under the influence of hydrodynamical particular, the transport equation of water quality parameter concentration is：
Wherein：C representative species concentration.When C is chlorophyll-a concentration, dynamic response item SKRespectively consider algae growth,
Dead and settlement action.When C is dissolved oxygen concentration, dynamic response item SKConsider that air is oxygen-enriched, photosynthesis in water body respectively
Increase and water plant respiration, BOD degradeds, nitration reaction oxygen consumption and bed mud oxygen demand to dissolved oxygen is to dissolved oxygen
Reduction acts on.The solution procedure of water quality parameter Transport Model takes the discrete way identical with hydrodynamic model internal schema.
3) model-driven power
The external force effect for driving hydrodynamic force-water Quality Coupling Model operation is mainly the wind-stress (V three days followingx, Vy),
Vx, VyAir speed value respectively on x, y direction, unit m/s.
Wind-stress acquisition modes：In Chinese weather net
(http://www.weather.com.cn/html/weather/101190201.shtml) on inquiry future three
The Beaufort scale and wind direction of its wind-force, according to the transformation rule of table 1, by wind-force Pu Fu wind daily in following weather forecast in three days
Wind direction daily in following weather forecast in three days, according to the transformation rule of table 2, is changed angulation by level conversion into resultant wind velocity value V
θ is spent, then Vx=-Vcos θ, Vy=-Vsin θ.
The conversion of 1 Beaufort scale of table and wind speed
| Beaufort scale | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Corresponding wind speed (m/s) | 0.3-1.5 | 1.6-3.3 | 3.4-5.4 | 5.5-7.9 | 8.0-10.7 |
The conversion of 2 wind direction of table and the number of degrees
| Wind direction | East | The southeast | South | Southwest | West | Northwest | North | Northeast |
| Angle | 90 | 135 | 180 | 225 | 270 | 315 | 0 | 45 |
4) the computing flow of model
Flow as shown in Figure 2, by model calculation, obtain following three days full lakes each calculate grid inner chlorophyll a with
The numerical value that dissolved oxygen concentration changes over time, and then obtain the spatial and temporal distributions in full lake.
4th, probability empirical equation is established, the general easily shampoo domain in following three days lakes is calculated and the general probability in lake occurs
The general generation in lake is related to several factors, but in short-period forecast, can be without considering on a larger time scale
It is dense to influence factor, the Measures of Algae in Water Body for only filtering out the general generation in rapid contribution lake in several days such as the water nutrition of the general generation in lake
The effect of the meteorological factor such as degree, dissolved oxygen concentration and wind speed, rainfall, therefore the general probability forecast model in algae source property lake is represented by
F=f1(N1t)*f2(V)*f3(R)*f4(N2t) (6)
Wherein f1(N1t) it is probability, f as caused by t moment amount of algae2(V) it is the probability as caused by wind friction velocity, f3
(R) it is the probability as caused by condition of raining, f4(N2t) it is the probability as caused by t moment dissolved oxygen solubility.Four kinds of probability are pressed respectively
Table 3 carries out assignment.Each calculated in full lake and foregoing probability forecast model is utilized on grid, can obtain the probability of the general generation in Quan Hu lakes
Distribution.
3 chlorophyll of table, dissolved oxygen content, wind speed, the corresponding table of the general probability of happening of rainfall and lake
| Chlorophyll (μ g/L) | f(N1t) | Wind-force (wind speed m/s) | f(V) | Rainfall | f(R) | DO(mg/L) | f(N2t) |
| More than 60 | 1 | 1-2 grades (0.3-3.3) | 1 | It is fine, cloudy | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| 50 | 0.9 | 3 grades (3.4-5.4) | 0.9 | Cloudy, light rain | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 40 | 0.8 | 4 grades (5.5-7.9) | 0.8 | Shower, thunder shower | 0.8 | 4.0 | 0.6 |
| 20 | 0.6 | 5 grades (8.0-10.7) | 0.7 | Moderate rain | 0.7 | 6.0 | 0.4 |
| 10 | 0.4 | More than 5 grades (>10.8) | 0.5 | In, big, heavy rain | 0 | 8.0 | 0 |
5th, the region larger for the general probability in lake occurs, further determines that and the general position in lake and area occurs
For lake Fan Yifa lake regions of interest, some sections can be divided into advance, and each section includes some calculating nets
Lattice.It is utilized respectively formula (6) and calculates the probability for calculating the general generation in lake on grid covered in per section waters, if the section
Existing probability is more than 50% grid, then it is general to forecast that lake occurs for this section of waters；Probability is more than 50% grid area in the section
The sum of, that is, the general area in lake occurs.
It is set forth below for but be not in exclusive example, by taking the monitoring and prediction in the general easily shampoo domain in Taihu Lake lake as an example, tool
Body illustrates the implementation of preceding method.
Step 1, in the general easily shampoo domain setting monitoring site in lake, on-site measurement is carried out to meteorologic parameter and water environment parameter.
In this example, based on to Taihu Lake lake it is general easily shampoo domain understanding, respectively Hu Xi, Zhu Shan gulf, Mei Liang gulfs, tribute arm of lake with
And five lake regions such as lake east water head site set 24 monitoring points, as shown in Figure 3.Thursday on June 12nd, 2014, in order to the same day
The general forecast in lake provides basic data, and water quality to each emphasis lake region in Taihu Lake and lake it is general a situation arises comprehensive grasp, drive
Inspection speedboat, successively field observations and a measurements are carried out along the route shown in Fig. 3 to 24 inspection point positions.At every bit position, adopt
With multi-parameter water quality instrument (YSI6600-V2) (YellowSpring Instruments, USA) measure chlorophyll-a concentration, dissolving
The water quality parameters such as oxygen concentration, saturation dissolved oxygen, using Sai Shi disks method measure water transparency, and immediately measure temperature, wind speed,
The indexs such as wind direction, water temperature.Each indication information of measurement is as shown in table 4.1 liter of Surface water sample (10-30cm depth) is gathered, sample fills
Loaded on being immediately placed in sampling bottle in the incubator with ice chest, nitrogen, phosphorus recycling and dissolubility in laboratory are used for after disembarkation
The measure of the indexs such as organic carbon, the analysis of sample are carried out according to lake ecosystem observation procedure.Each achievement data of measurement is such as
Shown in table 5.
The water environment parameter measured in monitoring point, is interpolated into primary condition of the full lake as numerical model by step 2.
According to the on-site measurement to the general easily shampoo domain landform in Taihu Lake lake, full lake is divided into 6353 calculating grids, such as Fig. 4
It is shown.The wherein west regions as the general easily shampoo domain in lake and northern lake region, grid resolution are ≈ 300m, remaining waters grid
Resolution ratio is ≈ 1000m.The water environment parameter value of 24 monitoring sites is interpolated into by full lake using anti-distance weighting interpolation algorithm
6353 calculate on grid, obtain the full lake initial distribution of chlorophyll-a concentration, dissolved oxygen concentration, as shown in Figure 5.
The weather forecast shown on the net according to Chinese weather, June, 13-15 Pu Fu wind direction wind scales were respectively 2 grades of northeaster,
2 grades of 2 grades of east wind and east wind, according to the conversion principle of Tables 1 and 2, the wind speed V=2.5m/s, 2.5m/s, 2.5m/s of three days；Wind
To θ=45,90,90.
Step 3, the spatial and temporal distributions for calculating Taihu Lake chlorophyll-a concentration in 13-15 days June and dissolved oxygen concentration.
Bring ready data in step 2 into three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-water quality model respectively, according to the flow shown in Fig. 2 into
Row calculates, and obtains following three days full lakes and each calculates the numerical value that grid inner chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentration change over time, to obtain the final product
The spatial and temporal distributions in full lake are arrived, as shown in Figure 6.
Step 4, calculate the probability that following three days Taihu Lake generation lake is general on each grid.
The weather forecast shown on the net according to Chinese weather, 13-15 days June, wind speed was 2 grades, and weather is respectively fine to more
Cloud, fine arrive cloudy, cloudy, the table of comparisons 3, f (V)=1.0, f (R)max=1.0；If for No. i-th grid, Chlai=25.2 μ g/L,
DOi=1.5mg/L, then f (N1t)=0.6, f (N2t)=1.0, using formula (6), the general probability in lake occurs for No. i-th grid
F=f1(N1t)*f2(V)*f3(R)*f4(N2t)=0.6
The formula (6) on 6353 grids, you can obtain full Taihu Lake and the general probability distribution in lake occurs, as shown in Figure 7.
Step 5, determine the general position in generation lake and area according to probability distribution.
As shown in figure 8, the easy general Zhu Shan gulfs in lake and the western littoral zone offshore 2km scopes waters of occurring is divided into 4 sections, too
Gehu port is paragraph 1 (too the Gehu sand pool section) to Sha Tang ports, and port is shown disrespect on as the 2nd section (husky pool symbol shows disrespect on section) in Sha Tang ports to symbol, accords with and shows disrespect on port to old
Donggang City is the 3rd section (symbol shows disrespect on old eastern section), and old Donggang City to eight room ports is the 4th section (old eastern eight room section)；By tribute arm of lake north intake
Offshore 2 kilometer range in littoral zone is divided into 2 sections, and Wu Tang Men ports to the sub- port of nonyl are the 5th section (Wu pool nonyl subsegment), and Li He opens port and be to new
6th section (Li He newly opens section)；Using Mei Liang gulfs littoral zone as the 7th section.
The general probability distribution in lake is occurred according to Taihu Lake in step 4, if the section existing probability is more than 50% grid,
It is general to forecast that lake occurs for this section of waters；The sum of the grid area of probability more than 50% in the section, that is, occur the general area in lake.Such as figure
Shown in 7, it is 60% that the general probability in lake, which occurs, there are grid in the section of Mei Liang gulfs, therefore forecasts that Mei Liang gulfs occurred at following three days
Lake is general.Wherein, grid of the probability more than 50% there are about 5-10, be 0.3*0.3/2=0.045km according to a grid area2
Calculate, it is 0.2-0.5km that the general area in lake, which occurs within following three days,2。
According to the operation content of step 1- steps 5, the later stage can be fabricated to " the general monitoring and warning half cycle of Taihu Lake cyanobacteria and lake
Report " (as shown in Figure 9), sends to lake administrative departments at different levels, only the daily management mission in Taihu Lake does not provide favourable science
Foundation, and the reply Governance Ability of government can be improved, effective emergency measure is formulated before the general generation in lake, at utmost
Reduce the general ecological hazard in lake and health risk.
Although the present invention is disclosed above with preferred embodiment, so it is not limited to the present invention.Skill belonging to the present invention
Has usually intellectual in art field, without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, when can be used for a variety of modifications and variations.Cause
This, the scope of protection of the present invention is defined by those of the claims.
Table Taihu Lake on 5 June 12 inspection nitrogen, phosphorus recycling and BOD data
| Numbering | BOD(mg/L) | NO2-N(mg/L) | NO3-N(mg/L) | PO4-P(mg/L) | NH4-N(mg/L) |
| 8 | 3.4439 | 0.1518 | 2.2806 | 0.098124 | 0.606 |
| 1 | 1.9833 | 0.0527 | 1.3734 | 0.019069 | 0.155 |
| 2 | 4.6206 | 0.2207 | 1.9498 | 0.083676 | 0.457 |
| 3 | 2.4896 | 0.0809 | 1.7849 | 0.176241 | 0.202 |
| 4 | 3.2435 | 0.1271 | 1.8707 | 0.122338 | 0.364 |
| 5 | 2.4256 | 0.094 | 1.8848 | 0.049762 | 0.116 |
| 6 | 3.6636 | 0.2237 | 1.9171 | 0.062857 | 0.391 |
| 7 | 4.1060 | 0.183 | 1.2418 | 0.073043 | 1.637 |
| 9 | 3.8945 | 0.1994 | 1.5592 | 0.093719 | 1.552 |
| 21 | 3.4077 | 0.2028 | 1.8087 | 0.051788 | 1.061 |
| 22 | 3.1545 | 0.1839 | 2.6873 | 0.074975 | 0.471 |
| 10 | 2.7344 | 0.0683 | 1.8043 | 0.068473 | 0.206 |
| 11 | 2.6482 | 0.0554 | 1.5691 | 0.034347 | 0.07 |
| 12 | 2.1920 | 0.0215 | 1.2428 | 0.089072 | 0.108 |
| 13 | 2.2003 | 0.0422 | 1.3855 | 0.025622 | 0.067 |
| 14 | 2.3422 | 0.041 | 1.1077 | 0.045403 | 0.179 |
| 15 | 1.6022 | 0.011 | 1.0688 | 0.012488 | 0.075 |
| 16 | 1.3768 | 0.0129 | 1.0534 | 0.011933 | 0.026 |
| 23 | 1.4241 | 0.0147 | 1.2475 | 0.016722 | 0.039 |
| 24 | 1.5215 | 0.0126 | 1.3302 | 0.015977 | 0.069 |
Claims (5)
- A kind of 1. general short-term earthquake prediction method in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source property lake, it is characterised in that the realization bag of this method Include following steps：1）In the general easily shampoo domain setting monitoring site in shallow lake lake, meteorologic parameter and water environment parameter are measured；It is described Water environment parameter includes water temperature, transparency, chlorophyll-a concentration, dissolved oxygen concentration, saturation dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus recycling and refers to Mark, meteorologic parameter include temperature, wind speed, wind direction index, and live water-quality determination instrument is multi-parameter water quality instrument, and the analysis of sample is pressed Carried out according to lake ecosystem observation procedure；2）Using space lattice division and interpolation algorithm, the water environment parameter measured in monitoring point is interpolated into full lake, its space It is distributed the primary condition as Water Quality Numerical Model；3）Using following three days wind field spatial and temporal distributions as model-driven power, three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model is driven to be transported Calculate, obtain the spatial and temporal distributions of following three days shallow lake chlorophyll as and dissolved oxygen concentration；4）Using the spatial and temporal distributions of chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen concentration, probability empirical equation is established with reference to meteorologic parameter, calculates future The general probability in lake occurs for the general easily shampoo domain in three days lakes；5）The region larger for the general probability in lake occurs, further determines that and the general position in lake and area occurs.
- 2. the general short-term earthquake prediction method in property lake in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source according to claim 1, it is characterised in that The step 2）In, space lattice division uses triangular mesh, and grid resolution is according to the degree of concern and water front to lake region Degree of crook, sets scope for 100 meters between 1 km, the interpolation algorithm uses anti-distance weighting interpolation algorithm.
- 3. the general short-term earthquake prediction method in property lake in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source according to claim 1, it is characterised in that The step 3）In, using σ coordinate vertical layered, limited bulk discrete method, interior external mold separation method, dry and wet point moving boundary side Three-dimensional hydrodynamic force-Water Quality Numerical Model that method, solution description shallow lake water movement and material concentration transport.
- 4. the general short-term earthquake prediction method in property lake in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source according to claim 1, it is characterised in that The step 4）In, in short-period forecast, consider that the water body Determination of Chlorophyll a concentration for being related close general with lake, dissolved oxygen are dense Degree and wind speed, the effect of rainfall meteorological factor, establish the empirical equation of the general probability of happening in algae source property lake.
- 5. the general short-term earthquake prediction method in property lake in nutrition enriched shallow lake algae source according to claim 1, it is characterised in that The step 5）In, the general easily shampoo domain in lake is divided into multiple sections, if the section there are lake general probability of happening more than 50% Grid, then it is general to forecast that lake occurs for the section waters；The sum of the grid area of probability more than 50% in the section, that is, it is general to occur lake Area.
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