CN104464232A - Forecasting and early warning detection model in emulsion explosive production technological process based on danger source - Google Patents
Forecasting and early warning detection model in emulsion explosive production technological process based on danger source Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a forecasting and early warning detection model in an emulsion explosive production technological process based on a danger source, and belongs to the technical field of danger source forecasting and early warning in the civil explosive industry. The forecasting and early warning detection model is technically characterized in that a danger source forecasting and early warning value is built, wherein the forecasting and early warning value of a danger source parameter of emulsion explosive production technology equipment is built; danger source parameter change fluctuation is measured; the danger source parameter correlation is described; a production line forecasting and early warning statistic analysis strategy is built. The forecasting and early warning detection model in the emulsion explosive production technological process based on the danger source is convenient to operate and effective, and is used for modeling for forecasting and early warning detection in the emulsion explosive production process.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of prediction and warning detection model, more particularly, particularly relate to the prediction and warning detection model based on dangerous matter sources parameter in a kind of emulsion explosive production technology.
Background technology
Existing emulsion explosive production line just arranges the threshold value reaching the high-risk deadlock of production line to dangerous matter sources (production equipment).Process, statistical study in real time are not carried out well for the amplitude fluctuation in threshold range, and is only find process problem by the operating personnel of pulpit are on duty.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to for above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, provide a kind of easy to use, prediction and warning comparatively accurately and based on the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources in the good emulsion explosive production technology of result of use.
Technical scheme of the present invention is achieved in that the prediction and warning detection model based on dangerous matter sources in a kind of emulsion explosive production technology, and this model comprises following four parts:
(1) dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is set up: set up each dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value based on Emulsion Explosive Production process equipment parameter threshold; Described device parameter threshold value, refers to that whole production line deadlock, stopping are produced after production equipment reaches parameter threshold; Described dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is less than corresponding device parameter threshold value;
(2) dangerous matter sources parameter value fluctuation tolerance: when the parameter value of apparatus for production line reaches or exceeds hazard source prediction and warning value, utilize adjacent two time intervals determine the rate of change of the slope of straight line as dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value, the grade that the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter value is used as prediction and warning response mechanism according to and the foundation that detects of dangerous matter sources equipment latent instability factor;
(3) dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter is portrayed: when certain dangerous matter sources parameter exceeds prediction and warning value, by the method for relative coordinate compound, parameters is combined with each other, synchronization exceeds the parameter of prediction and warning value all with red mark, the parameter not exceeding prediction and warning value then marks with black; Synchronization parameter mark formation general layout, the redness mark number in each general layout is called the degree of correlation of general layout; If parameter values all in general layout is all red mark, be called a complete correlativity general layout; Otherwise, if parameter values all in general layout is all black mark, be called a non-correlation general layout; Intuitively effectively can understand to portraying of dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter influencing each other of changing between each dangerous matter sources of emulsion explosive production line by general layout, and then the Disposal Measures of being correlated with can be considered;
(4) production line prediction and warning statistical study strategy: adopt the correlation rule in rough set theory, expectation in probability statistics and deviation theory to carry out statistical estimation analysis to prediction and warning number of times on the production line of weekly, monthly and even more long duration; This strategy of statistical study of production line prediction and warning number of times only emphasized by this model, is suitable for and each dangerous matter sources parameter.
Based in the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources in above-mentioned emulsion explosive production technology, step (1) described dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is the less fluctuation range of delimiting according to production equipment parameters value under normal production scenarios.
Based in the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources in above-mentioned emulsion explosive production technology, the described rate of change formula of step (2) is: k=(y
2-y
1)/(x
2-x
1); Wherein: when device parameter value is higher than the dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value upper bound, the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value is just, the rate of change of the slope larger explanation dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value of straight line is larger; When device parameter value is lower than dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value lower bound, the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value is negative value, and the rate of change of the slope less explanation dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value of straight line is larger.
Based in the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources in above-mentioned emulsion explosive production technology, described in step (4), statistical estimation analysis is carried out to prediction and warning number of times on the production line of weekly, monthly and even more long duration, do not provide the concrete grammar used by the statistical study of concrete each dangerous matter sources parameter prediction early warning number of times, this will determine to be suitable for the correlation rule in rough set theory or the expectation in probability statistics and deviation theory according to practical application scene.
After the present invention adopts above-mentioned model structure, can on the basis of Detection and Extraction in real time by dangerous matter sources parameters, utilize the unusual fluctuations of the discovery dangerous matter sources signal that model of the present invention can be real-time.Different emergency processing strategies is taked in real time according to the rate of change of unusual fluctuations; Utilize the inventory analysis technology of large data to statistics weekly, monthly so longer time scope prediction and warning number of times carry out statistical study; When dangerous matter sources parameter single on production line is changed, the impact of other dangerous matter sources parameter is then realized by the method for Parameters variation general layout, to reach the object detecting dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter in real time.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Below in conjunction with the embodiment in accompanying drawing, the present invention is explained, but do not form any limitation of the invention.
Fig. 1 is production line dangerous matter sources prediction and warning schematic diagram of the present invention;
In figure: 1 is production line self-locking threshold value; 2 is production desired value; 3 for presetting prediction and warning value; 4 is production actual value.
Fig. 2 is the rate of change schematic diagram that dangerous matter sources of the present invention exceeds prediction and warning;
In figure: 1 is production line self-locking threshold value; 2 is production desired value; 3 for presetting prediction and warning value; 5 is rate of change.
Fig. 3 is the schematic diagram of dangerous matter sources prediction and warning number of times of the present invention statistics;
In figure: the bullet be positioned in X-axis is produce without prediction and warning; Red round dot between X-axis and Y-axis is prediction and warning number of times.
Fig. 4 is the schematic diagram of dangerous matter sources early warning relevance general layout of the present invention.
In figure: 6 for producing normal value; 7 is the normal production intermediate value of each parameter; 8 is each parameter early warning value dividing value; 9 is prediction and warning value.
Embodiment
Consult shown in Fig. 1 to Fig. 4, based on the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources in a kind of emulsion explosive production technology of the present invention, this model comprises following four parts:
(1) dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is set up: set up each dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value based on Emulsion Explosive Production process equipment parameter threshold; Described device parameter threshold value, refers to that whole production line deadlock, stopping are produced after production equipment reaches parameter threshold; Described dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is less than corresponding device parameter threshold value; Described dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is the less fluctuation range of delimiting according to production equipment parameters value under normal production scenarios.As shown in Figure 1, x-axis coordinate is time t, and y-axis coordinate is different dangerous matter sources parameter, and value unit is different, and this model just provides relevant regulations as abstract model, and does not specifically set.In figure, production line self-locking threshold value 1 is provided by apparatus for production line producer; Production desired value 2 is the average line in production run, will determine according to actual conditions; Default prediction and warning value 3 is divided into the prediction and warning value upper bound and prediction and warning value lower bound, lays respectively at the upper and lower of production desired value.Production actual value 4 refers to the actual parameter value detected, this value can time straight line, curve, just illustrate in figure that the actual value of parameter may exist the signal of fluctuation.
(2) dangerous matter sources parameter value fluctuation tolerance: when the parameter value of apparatus for production line reaches or exceeds hazard source prediction and warning value, utilize adjacent two time intervals determine the rate of change of the slope of straight line as dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value, rate of change formula is: k=(y
2-y
1)/(x
2-x
1); Wherein: when device parameter value is higher than the dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value upper bound, the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value is just, the rate of change of the slope larger explanation dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value of straight line is larger; When device parameter value is lower than dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value lower bound, the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value is negative value, and the rate of change of the slope less explanation dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value of straight line is larger.The rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter value is used as the grade foundation of prediction and warning response mechanism and the foundation of dangerous matter sources equipment latent instability factor detection; As shown in Figure 2, x-axis, y-axis except introducing in Fig. 1 in figure, outside production line self-locking threshold value 1, production desired value 2 and default prediction and warning value 3 three line, the rate of change 5 of specific time interval internal reference numerical value when dangerous matter sources parameter exceeds prediction and warning value exactly.X
1, x
2represent that dangerous matter sources parameter operates in the moment of normal range and prediction and warning scope respectively.As for when dangerous matter sources parameter exceedes the prediction and warning value upper bound or lower bound, i.e. x
2moment, previous moment x
1value then set according to different parameters.
(3) dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter is portrayed: when certain dangerous matter sources parameter exceeds prediction and warning value, by the method for relative coordinate compound, parameters is combined with each other, synchronization exceeds the parameter of prediction and warning value all with red mark, the parameter not exceeding prediction and warning value then marks with black; Synchronization parameter mark formation general layout, the redness mark number in each general layout is called the degree of correlation of general layout; If parameter values all in general layout is all red mark, be called a complete correlativity general layout; Otherwise, if parameter values all in general layout is all black mark, be called a non-correlation general layout; Intuitively effectively can understand to portraying of dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter influencing each other of changing between each dangerous matter sources of emulsion explosive production line by general layout, and then the Disposal Measures of being correlated with can be considered; As shown in Figure 3, the schematic diagram monthly added up that dangerous matter sources exceeds prediction and warning number of times statistics is just given in figure.The chronomere of x-axis is sky in the figure, and the unit of y-axis is parameter value prediction and warning number of times.Prediction and warning statistical study in this model can carry out statistical study according to the different time periods, is monthly a kind of situation wherein.
(4) production line prediction and warning statistical study strategy: adopt the correlation rule in rough set theory, expectation in probability statistics and deviation theory to carry out statistical estimation analysis to prediction and warning number of times on the production line of weekly, monthly and even more long duration, do not provide the concrete grammar used by the statistical study of concrete each dangerous matter sources parameter prediction early warning number of times, this will determine to be suitable for the correlation rule in rough set theory or the expectation in probability statistics and deviation theory according to practical application scene; This strategy of statistical study of production line prediction and warning number of times only emphasized by this model, is suitable for and each dangerous matter sources parameter.As shown in Figure 4, in figure, x-axis is time shaft.Y-axis is a composite shaft, and its value unit is the relative value of the parameter value according to compound, and the parameter being convenient to various different value unit like this can represent under same coordinate system portrays.In coordinate system except expression parameters early warning value dividing value 8, normal production intermediate value 7, the point being positioned at the upper and lower prediction and warning dividing value of dangerous matter sources parameter represents produces normal value 6, and the point be positioned at outside hazard source dates prediction and warning dividing value represents prediction and warning value 9.Same moment time represents that the production normal value 6 of parameters and prediction and warning value 9 form a general layout jointly, and wherein the number of prediction and warning value 9 is called the degree of correlation of general layout.X in figure
jmoment general layout is complete correlativity general layout, x
mmoment general layout is non-correlation general layout, x
ithe degree of correlation that moment is then correlated with for parameter 2, parameter 3 is the general layout of 2.Fig. 4 gives the example of four parameters, can be the form greater or less than four parameters in practical application.
Embodiment
The present invention is dangerous matter sources prediction and warning detection model in emulsion explosive production technology, and this model can adopt the modes such as such as computer software specifically to implement.Here the implementation step only providing summary of the invention is as follows:
The first step, each dangerous matter sources in the technological process of setting Emulsion Explosive Production and parameter thereof.
Second step, sets the production line self-locking threshold value of each dangerous matter sources parameter, production desired value and the upper and lower dividing value of prediction and warning.
3rd step, detects the parameter information of each dangerous matter sources in real time.
4th step, when dangerous matter sources parameter exceedes prediction and warning value, the rate of change of calculating parameter fluctuation.
5th step, while the 4th step, finds out the dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter general layout in this moment and disposes behave accordingly to the dangerous matter sources exceeding prediction and warning.
6th step, carries out statistical study to dangerous matter sources parameter prediction early warning number of times, or returns the 3rd real-time detection of step maintenance to each dangerous matter sources parameter.
Above illustrated embodiment is better embodiment of the present invention, only be used for conveniently the present invention being described, not any pro forma restriction is done to the present invention, have in any art and usually know the knowledgeable, if do not depart from the present invention carry in the scope of technical characteristic, utilize the Equivalent embodiments that the done local of disclosed technology contents is changed or modified, and do not depart from technical characteristic content of the present invention, all still belong in the scope of the technology of the present invention feature.
Claims (4)
1. in an emulsion explosive production technology based on the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources, it is characterized in that, this model comprises following four parts: (1) sets up dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value: set up each dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value based on Emulsion Explosive Production process equipment parameter threshold; Described device parameter threshold value, refers to that whole production line deadlock, stopping are produced after production equipment reaches parameter threshold; Described dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is less than corresponding device parameter threshold value; (2) dangerous matter sources Parameters variation fluctuation tolerance: when the parameter value of apparatus for production line reaches or exceeds hazard source prediction and warning value, utilize adjacent two time intervals determine the rate of change of the slope of straight line as dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value, the grade that the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter value is used as prediction and warning response mechanism according to and the foundation that detects of dangerous matter sources equipment latent instability factor; (3) dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter is portrayed: when certain dangerous matter sources parameter exceeds prediction and warning value, by the method for relative coordinate compound, parameters is combined with each other, synchronization exceeds the parameter of prediction and warning value all with red mark, the parameter not exceeding prediction and warning value then marks with black; Synchronization parameter mark formation general layout, the redness mark number in each general layout is called the degree of correlation of general layout; If parameter values all in general layout is all red mark, be called a complete correlativity general layout; Otherwise, if parameter values all in general layout is all black mark, be called a non-correlation general layout; Intuitively effectively can understand to portraying of dangerous matter sources dependence on parameter influencing each other of changing between each dangerous matter sources of emulsion explosive production line by general layout, and then the Disposal Measures of being correlated with can be considered; (4) production line prediction and warning statistical study strategy: adopt the correlation rule in rough set theory, expectation in probability statistics and deviation theory to carry out statistical estimation analysis to prediction and warning number of times on the production line of weekly, monthly and even more long duration; This strategy of statistical study of production line prediction and warning number of times only emphasized by this model, is suitable for and each dangerous matter sources parameter.
2. in emulsion explosive production technology according to claim 1 based on the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources, it is characterized in that, step (1) described dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value is the less fluctuation range of delimiting according to production equipment parameters value under normal production scenarios.
3. in emulsion explosive production technology according to claim 1 based on the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources, it is characterized in that, the described rate of change formula of step (2) is: k=(y
2-y
1)/(x
2-x
1); Wherein: when device parameter value is higher than the dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value upper bound, the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value is just, the rate of change of the slope larger explanation dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value of straight line is larger; When device parameter value is lower than dangerous matter sources prediction and warning value lower bound, the rate of change of dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value is negative value, and the rate of change of the slope less explanation dangerous matter sources parameter fluctuation value of straight line is larger.
4. in emulsion explosive production technology according to claim 1 based on the prediction and warning detection model of dangerous matter sources, it is characterized in that, described in step (4), statistical estimation analysis is carried out to prediction and warning number of times on the production line of weekly, monthly and even more long duration, do not provide the concrete grammar used by the statistical study of concrete each dangerous matter sources parameter prediction early warning number of times, this will determine to be suitable for the correlation rule in rough set theory or the expectation in probability statistics and deviation theory according to practical application scene.
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| CN113515891A (en) * | 2021-06-04 | 2021-10-19 | 浙江永联民爆器材有限公司 | Method for predicting and optimizing quality of emulsion explosive |
| CN117010690A (en) * | 2023-08-04 | 2023-11-07 | 洛阳炼化宏达实业有限责任公司 | Production safety early warning method based on artificial intelligence |
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