CN105825344A - Nuclear power object protection effectiveness quantifying and evaluating method and device - Google Patents
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Abstract
The present invention provides a nuclear power object protection effectiveness quantifying and evaluating method and device. The method comprises the steps of 1 establishing a two-dimensional facility description model of an object protection system environment; 2 carrying out the external invasion analysis according to the two-dimensional facility description model and aiming at the external enemy invasion situation; 3 according to the external invasion enemy information and the response power information, carrying out the prevention analysis on the external enemy invasion situation; 4 carrying out the insider crime analysis according to the two-dimensional facility description model and aiming at the nuclear material steal situations of the insiders; 5 calculating the risk value of the external enemy invasion according to the analysis results of the steps 2 and 3, and then calculating the risk value of the insider crime according to the analysis result of the step 4. According to the present invention, the object protection system effectiveness analysis accuracy is improved, and the nucleus accident possibility is reduced.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to technical field of nuclear power, particularly to a kind of nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method and device.
Background technology
The safety problem of nuclear material and nuclear facilities is the focal issue of international concern.Nuclear power physical protection system is intended to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities safety, prevents the vandalism of malice.It is an important step in physical protection that physical protection system carries out efficiency assessment.Physical protection efficiency analysis is exactly to apply qualitative or quantitative technology to make whole real insurance system reach the architectural system process of effect level.
Qualitative evaluation is mainly based on material object, by observing in real time, relies on the experience of people judge the effectiveness of system and find weak link.Such as on-the-spot test, simulation invasion etc..Its shortcoming is to primarily focus on management and experience aspect, does not has reliable theory to the analysis doing in data, it is difficult to supports formation and the foundation of comprehensive physical protection system complete, efficient, does not ensures that the adequacy of assessment.Quantitative assessment is mainly element each to physical protection system and carries out correlation attribute value quantization, then uses the method for probability statistics to calculate Validity Index and nuclear material, the value-at-risk of nuclear facilities of reflection physical protection system effect.
Present stage, China mainly uses method qualitatively to evaluate the effectiveness of physical protection system, not to be suitable for the physical protection system efficiency analysis computational methods of China's national situation；The quantitative evaluating method lacking a set of comparatively perfect carries out science to effectiveness and the risk of real insurance system, objectively measures.
Summary of the invention
The invention provides a kind of nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method and device, it, for improving the accuracy of physical protection system efficiency analysis, reduces the probability that nuclear accident occurs.
For solving the problems referred to above, as one aspect of the present invention, it is provided that a kind of nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method, including: step 1, set up the two-dimentional facility descriptive model of physical protection system environment；This two dimension facility descriptive model includes the Environmental Map Information that the facility components information of physical protection system, nuclear material information and real insurance system are concrete；Step 2, invades situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for outside opponent, carries out outside invasion analysis；Step 3, according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, carries out preventing to outside opponent's situation of invading and analyzes；Step 4, steals nuclear material situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for internal staff and carries out internal staff and commit a crime analysis；Step 5, according to step 2 and the analysis result of 3, calculates the value-at-risk of outside opponent's invasion, further according to the analysis result of step 4, calculates the value-at-risk of internal staff's crime；Step 6, if the calculated value-at-risk of step 5 is higher, then according to the result of calculation of step 2-4 be analyzed finding out can improvement, and according to step 2-5, the physical protection system improved is re-started quantitative evaluation, until it reaches industry standard.
Preferably, described facility components information include detection probability, time delay, can traverse distance；Described nuclear material information includes nuclear material size, nuclear material grade, status information；The concrete Environmental Map Information of described real insurance system includes in system the two-dimensional position coordinate residing for each facility components, annexation.
Preferably, described step 2 includes: according to described two dimension facility descriptive model, uses Depth Priority Algorithm to list all feasible paths of outside opponent's invasion；To each feasible path, determine critical detection point according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information；According to the facility components information on described critical detection point and intrusion path, calculate individual paths and stop probability；Stop probability calculation mode according to described single path, calculate the probability that stops of all feasible paths, and carry out ascending order arrangement by numerical values recited；Described minimum is stopped probit and industry standard compares, it is judged that whether described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described step 3 includes: according to described outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, use PCA to determine weapon effectiveness value；According to described weapon effectiveness value, use blue Chester operation to injure theoretical model calculating and finally prevent probability；Described prevention probit and industry standard are compared, it is judged that whether the response strength of described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described step 4 includes: according to described two dimension facility descriptive model information and internal work personal information, uses greedy algorithm to calculate the internal detection probability of internal staff's crime；Described internal detection probit and industry standard are compared, it is judged that whether the internal work personnel of described real insurance system reach effect level.
Present invention also offers a kind of nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative evaluation device, including: facility describing module, for setting up the two-dimentional facility descriptive model of physical protection system environment；This two dimension facility descriptive model includes the Environmental Map Information that the facility components information of physical protection system, nuclear material information and real insurance system are concrete；Outside invasion analyzes module, for invading situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for outside opponent, carries out outside invasion analysis；Prevent module, for according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, carry out preventing to outside opponent's situation of invading and analyze；Internal staff commits a crime analysis module, carries out internal staff commit a crime analysis for stealing nuclear material situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for internal staff；Value-at-risk computing module, for analyzing module according to outside invasion and preventing the analysis result of module, calculates the value-at-risk of outside opponent's invasion, commits a crime further according to internal staff and analyze the analysis result of module, calculate the value-at-risk of internal staff's crime；Judge module; for when the calculated value-at-risk of step 5 is higher; according to outside invasion analyze module, prevent module and internal staff commit a crime analyze that the result of calculation of module is analyzed finding out can improvement; and analyze module according to outside invasion, prevent module, internal staff and commit a crime and analyze module and value-at-risk computing module the physical protection system improved is re-started quantitative evaluation, until it reaches industry standard.
Preferably, described facility components information include detection probability, time delay, can traverse distance；Described nuclear material information includes nuclear material size, nuclear material grade, status information；The concrete Environmental Map Information of described real insurance system includes in system the two-dimensional position coordinate residing for each facility components, annexation.
Preferably, described outside invasion is analyzed module and is included: feasible path computing module, for according to described two dimension facility descriptive model, uses Depth Priority Algorithm to list all feasible paths of outside opponent's invasion；Critical detection point determines module, for each feasible path, determining critical detection point according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information；Stop probability evaluation entity, for according to the facility components information on described critical detection point and intrusion path, calculate individual paths and stop probability；Order module, for stopping probability calculation mode according to described single path, calculates the probability that stops of all feasible paths, and carries out ascending order arrangement by numerical values recited；Comparison module, is used for that described minimum is stopped probit and industry standard compares, it is judged that whether described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described prevention module includes: weapon effectiveness value determines module, for according to described outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, using PCA to determine weapon effectiveness value；Finally prevent probability evaluation entity, for according to described weapon effectiveness value, use blue Chester operation to injure theoretical model calculating and finally prevent probability；First judge module, for comparing described prevention probit and industry standard, it is judged that whether the response strength of described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described internal staff analysis module of committing a crime includes: internal detection probability evaluation entity, for according to described two dimension facility descriptive model information and internal work personal information, using greedy algorithm to calculate the internal detection probability of internal staff's crime；Second judge module, for comparing described internal detection probit and industry standard, it is judged that whether the internal work personnel of described real insurance system reach effect level.
The present invention uses the quantitative evaluation technology that a whole set of is complete that real insurance system is carried out quantitative analysis, adds the theory support to efficiency analysis science, improves the accuracy of physical protection system efficiency analysis, reduces the probability that nuclear accident occurs.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 schematically shows the flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, embodiments of the invention are described in detail, but the multitude of different ways that the present invention can be defined by the claims and cover is implemented.
Refer to Fig. 1, the invention provides a kind of nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method, including: step 1, set up the two-dimentional facility descriptive model of physical protection system environment；This two dimension facility descriptive model includes the Environmental Map Information that the facility components information of physical protection system, nuclear material information and real insurance system are concrete；Step 2, invades situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for outside opponent, carries out outside invasion analysis；Step 3, according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, carries out preventing to outside opponent's situation of invading and analyzes；Step 4, steals nuclear material situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for internal staff and carries out internal staff and commit a crime analysis；Step 5, according to step 2 and the analysis result of 3, calculates the value-at-risk of outside opponent's invasion, further according to the analysis result of step 4, calculates the value-at-risk of internal staff's crime；Step 6, if the calculated value-at-risk of step 5 is higher, then according to the result of calculation of step 2-4 be analyzed finding out can improvement, and according to step 2-5, the physical protection system improved is re-started quantitative evaluation, until it reaches industry standard.
Compared to China's existing efficiency evaluation technology; the present invention uses the quantitative evaluation technology that a whole set of is complete that real insurance system is carried out quantitative analysis; add the theory support to efficiency analysis science; improve the accuracy of physical protection system efficiency analysis, reduce the probability that nuclear accident occurs.
Preferably, described facility components information include detection probability, time delay, can traverse distance；Described nuclear material information includes nuclear material size, nuclear material grade, status information；The concrete Environmental Map Information of described real insurance system includes in system the two-dimensional position coordinate residing for each facility components, annexation.
Preferably, described step 2 includes: according to described two dimension facility descriptive model, uses Depth Priority Algorithm to list all feasible paths of outside opponent's invasion；To each feasible path, determine critical detection point according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information；According to the facility components information on described critical detection point and intrusion path, calculate individual paths and stop probability；Stop probability calculation mode according to described single path, calculate the probability that stops of all feasible paths, and carry out ascending order arrangement by numerical values recited；Described minimum is stopped probit and industry standard compares, it is judged that whether described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described step 3 includes: according to described outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, use PCA to determine weapon effectiveness value；According to described weapon effectiveness value, use blue Chester operation to injure theoretical model calculating and finally prevent probability；Described prevention probit and industry standard are compared, it is judged that whether the response strength of described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described step 4 includes: according to described two dimension facility descriptive model information and internal work personal information, uses greedy algorithm to calculate the internal detection probability of internal staff's crime；Described internal detection probit and industry standard are compared, it is judged that whether the internal work personnel of described real insurance system reach effect level.
Present invention also offers a kind of nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative evaluation device, including: facility describing module, for setting up the two-dimentional facility descriptive model of physical protection system environment；This two dimension facility descriptive model includes the Environmental Map Information that the facility components information of physical protection system, nuclear material information and real insurance system are concrete；Outside invasion analyzes module, for invading situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for outside opponent, carries out outside invasion analysis；Prevent module, for according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, carry out preventing to outside opponent's situation of invading and analyze；Internal staff commits a crime analysis module, carries out internal staff commit a crime analysis for stealing nuclear material situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for internal staff；Value-at-risk computing module, for analyzing module according to outside invasion and preventing the analysis result of module, calculates the value-at-risk of outside opponent's invasion, commits a crime further according to internal staff and analyze the analysis result of module, calculate the value-at-risk of internal staff's crime；Judge module; for when the calculated value-at-risk of step 5 is higher; according to outside invasion analyze module, prevent module and internal staff commit a crime analyze that the result of calculation of module is analyzed finding out can improvement; and analyze module according to outside invasion, prevent module, internal staff and commit a crime and analyze module and value-at-risk computing module the physical protection system improved is re-started quantitative evaluation, until it reaches industry standard.
Preferably, described facility components information include detection probability, time delay, can traverse distance；Described nuclear material information includes nuclear material size, nuclear material grade, status information；The concrete Environmental Map Information of described real insurance system includes in system the two-dimensional position coordinate residing for each facility components, annexation.
Preferably, described outside invasion is analyzed module and is included: feasible path computing module, for according to described two dimension facility descriptive model, uses Depth Priority Algorithm to list all feasible paths of outside opponent's invasion；Critical detection point determines module, for each feasible path, determining critical detection point according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information；Stop probability evaluation entity, for according to the facility components information on described critical detection point and intrusion path, calculate individual paths and stop probability；Order module, for stopping probability calculation mode according to described single path, calculates the probability that stops of all feasible paths, and carries out ascending order arrangement by numerical values recited；Comparison module, is used for that described minimum is stopped probit and industry standard compares, it is judged that whether described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described prevention module includes: weapon effectiveness value determines module, for according to described outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, using PCA to determine weapon effectiveness value；Finally prevent probability evaluation entity, for according to described weapon effectiveness value, use blue Chester operation to injure theoretical model calculating and finally prevent probability；First judge module, for comparing described prevention probit and industry standard, it is judged that whether the response strength of described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Preferably, described internal staff analysis module of committing a crime includes: internal detection probability evaluation entity, for according to described two dimension facility descriptive model information and internal work personal information, using greedy algorithm to calculate the internal detection probability of internal staff's crime；Second judge module, for comparing described internal detection probit and industry standard, it is judged that whether the internal work personnel of described real insurance system reach effect level.
The foregoing is only the preferred embodiments of the present invention, be not limited to the present invention, for a person skilled in the art, the present invention can have various modifications and variations.All within the spirit and principles in the present invention, any modification, equivalent substitution and improvement etc. made, should be included within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method, it is characterised in that including:
Step 1, sets up the two-dimentional facility descriptive model of physical protection system environment；This two dimension facility descriptive model includes the Environmental Map Information that the facility components information of physical protection system, nuclear material information and real insurance system are concrete；
Step 2, invades situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for outside opponent, carries out outside invasion analysis；
Step 3, according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, carries out preventing to outside opponent's situation of invading and analyzes；
Step 4, steals nuclear material situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for internal staff and carries out internal staff and commit a crime analysis；
Step 5, according to step 2 and the analysis result of 3, calculates the value-at-risk of outside opponent's invasion, further according to the analysis result of step 4, calculates the value-at-risk of internal staff's crime；
Step 6, if the calculated value-at-risk of step 5 is higher, then according to the result of calculation of step 2-4 be analyzed finding out can improvement, and according to step 2-5, the physical protection system improved is re-started quantitative evaluation, until it reaches industry standard.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described facility components information include detection probability, time delay, can traverse distance；Described nuclear material information includes nuclear material size, nuclear material grade, status information；The concrete Environmental Map Information of described real insurance system includes in system the two-dimensional position coordinate residing for each facility components, annexation.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described step 2 includes:
According to described two dimension facility descriptive model, Depth Priority Algorithm is used to list all feasible paths of outside opponent's invasion；
To each feasible path, determine critical detection point according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information；
According to the facility components information on described critical detection point and intrusion path, calculate individual paths and stop probability；
Stop probability calculation mode according to described single path, calculate the probability that stops of all feasible paths, and carry out ascending order arrangement by numerical values recited；
Described minimum is stopped probit and industry standard compares, it is judged that whether described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described step 3 includes:
According to described outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, PCA is used to determine weapon effectiveness value；
According to described weapon effectiveness value, use blue Chester operation to injure theoretical model calculating and finally prevent probability；
Described prevention probit and industry standard are compared, it is judged that whether the response strength of described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative estimation method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described step 4 includes:
According to described two dimension facility descriptive model information and internal work personal information, greedy algorithm is used to calculate the internal detection probability of internal staff's crime；
Described internal detection probit and industry standard are compared, it is judged that whether the internal work personnel of described real insurance system reach effect level.
6. a nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative evaluation device, it is characterised in that including:
Facility describing module, for setting up the two-dimentional facility descriptive model of physical protection system environment；This two dimension facility descriptive model includes the Environmental Map Information that the facility components information of physical protection system, nuclear material information and real insurance system are concrete；
Outside invasion analyzes module, for invading situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for outside opponent, carries out outside invasion analysis；
Prevent module, for according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, carry out preventing to outside opponent's situation of invading and analyze；
Internal staff commits a crime analysis module, carries out internal staff commit a crime analysis for stealing nuclear material situation according to described two dimension facility descriptive model for internal staff；
Value-at-risk computing module, for analyzing module according to outside invasion and preventing the analysis result of module, calculates the value-at-risk of outside opponent's invasion, commits a crime further according to internal staff and analyze the analysis result of module, calculate the value-at-risk of internal staff's crime；
Judge module; for when the calculated value-at-risk of step 5 is higher; according to outside invasion analyze module, prevent module and internal staff commit a crime analyze that the result of calculation of module is analyzed finding out can improvement; and analyze module according to outside invasion, prevent module, internal staff and commit a crime and analyze module and value-at-risk computing module the physical protection system improved is re-started quantitative evaluation, until it reaches industry standard.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative evaluation device the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described facility components information include detection probability, time delay, can traverse distance；Described nuclear material information includes nuclear material size, nuclear material grade, status information；The concrete Environmental Map Information of described real insurance system includes in system the two-dimensional position coordinate residing for each facility components, annexation.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative evaluation device the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described outside invasion is analyzed module and included:
Feasible path computing module, for according to described two dimension facility descriptive model, uses Depth Priority Algorithm to list all feasible paths of outside opponent's invasion；
Critical detection point determines module, for each feasible path, determining critical detection point according to outside invasion opponent's information and response force information；
Stop probability evaluation entity, for according to the facility components information on described critical detection point and intrusion path, calculate individual paths and stop probability；
Order module, for stopping probability calculation mode according to described single path, calculates the probability that stops of all feasible paths, and carries out ascending order arrangement by numerical values recited；
Comparison module, is used for that described minimum is stopped probit and industry standard compares, it is judged that whether described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative evaluation device the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described prevention module includes:
Weapon effectiveness value determines module, for according to described outside invasion opponent's information and response force information, using PCA to determine weapon effectiveness value；
Finally prevent probability evaluation entity, for according to described weapon effectiveness value, use blue Chester operation to injure theoretical model calculating and finally prevent probability；
First judge module, for comparing described prevention probit and industry standard, it is judged that whether the response strength of described real insurance system reaches effect level.
Nuclear power physical protection effectiveness quantitative evaluation device the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that described internal staff commit a crime analysis module include:
Internal detection probability evaluation entity, for according to described two dimension facility descriptive model information and internal work personal information, uses greedy algorithm to calculate the internal detection probability of internal staff's crime；
Second judge module, for comparing described internal detection probit and industry standard, it is judged that whether the internal work personnel of described real insurance system reach effect level.
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN108509590A (en) * | 2018-03-29 | 2018-09-07 | 深圳市欣横纵技术股份有限公司 | A kind of safety-protection system three-dimensional map display prevention method |
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| CN111553569B (en) * | 2020-04-16 | 2024-02-02 | 国家核安保技术中心 | Method, device, equipment and storage medium for evaluating physical protection effectiveness of nuclear facility |
| CN112418544A (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2021-02-26 | 中国核电工程有限公司 | Three-dimensional scene-based real object protection weakness analysis method |
| CN112418544B (en) * | 2020-12-01 | 2024-02-20 | 中国核电工程有限公司 | Physical protection weakness analysis method based on three-dimensional scene |
| CN115438463A (en) * | 2022-08-02 | 2022-12-06 | 国家核安保技术中心 | Protection system evaluation method, evaluation device, and storage medium |
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