CN104462812A - Electromobile energy supply cost analysis method based on hierarchy analysis method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses an electromobile energy supply cost analysis method based on a hierarchy analysis method, which comprises the following steps of: 1) constructing a hierarchical structure model by taking electromobile energy supply cost as a target layer, an evaluation index as a criterion layer, sub indexes of the evaluation index in the criterion layer as a sub criterion layer and an optional battery energy supply mode as a scheme layer, 2) quantitatively evaluating importance of the sub indexes under the criterion layer for a general target of the target layer according to a 1-9 scaling method and constructing a comparison judgment matrix, 3) calculating a weight vector of the matrix, 4) carrying out consistence check on the judgment matrix, modifying importance weights of the criterion layer and the sub criterion layer for the general target if the consistence check does not meet requirements till the consistence check meets the requirements, 5) outputting a synthetic weight of schemes of the scheme layer, and 6) carrying out decision analysis. The analysis method has reference and application values for the decision analysis of constructing a charging station and an electrical changing station.

Description

A kind of electric automobile energy supply Cost Analysis Method based on analytical hierarchy process

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of electric automobile energy supply Cost Analysis Method, particularly relate to a kind of electric automobile energy supply Cost Analysis Method based on analytical hierarchy process, belong to electric automobile power battery energy supply field.

Background technology

Electrokinetic cell is main energetic carrier and the power resources of electric automobile, is one of important component part of electric automobile.The use of electrokinetic cell, the energy supply technology of electrokinetic cell and electric automobile fill electrical changing station technology becomes the gordian technique promoting electric vehicle industrialization development.

Both at home and abroad, current electric automobile energy supply pattern mainly contains three kinds:

1, conventional charge mode.This kind of pattern directly adopts common electricity consumption to charge, and is a kind of charging modes commonplace at present.The charging current of normal charge is relatively low, and the duration of charging is longer.

Although the conventional charge mode duration of charging is long, due to charge power used and electric current all smaller, charger installation cost is lower; The time period that can make full use of electric power low ebb in night charges, and reduces charging cost; Conventional charge mode, owing to adopting low current charge, can reduce the charging cost of electrokinetic cell and improve the serviceable life of electrokinetic cell.

But, because conventional charge mode needs the longer duration of charging, usually require that the course continuation mileage of electric automobile is large as far as possible, the vehicle operation needs of a day need be met; And the randomness of charging is large, if do not have corresponding control measures, will produce serious pollution to electrical network.

2, fast charge mode.Fast charge mode is at short notice, take big current as a kind of charge mode of electric automobile power battery rapid charge.The charging current of fast charge mode is comparatively large, and the duration of charging is short.

Fast charge mode is generally applied in does not have condition to realize trickle charge, middle-long distance travelling and emergent charging.Fast charge mode needs land occupation, builds a large amount of charging stations, and the layout of charging station is wanted rationally.The charge efficiency of fast charge mode is lower, and corresponding work and installation cost higher.Due to employing is large current charge, has higher requirement to the security of charging technique method and charging.And owing to adopting large current charge, the serviceable life of electrokinetic cell can be shortened.

3, battery altering pattern.Battery altering pattern is charging modes ideal at present, is reached for the object of electric automobile energy supply by directly changing battery.Because the weight of the electric battery of electric automobile is comparatively large, the specialization changing battery requires comparatively strong, needs to be equipped with professional and completes the replacing of battery, charging and maintenance fast by mechanically actuated.The battery of electrical changing station, fully can be used by daytime, utilizes the time in night to concentrate charging, can reach the effect of balance peak valley like this.Utilize the electricity price of relative moderate to charge at a slow speed to battery, the impact to electrical network while of little to the loss of battery, can be reduced.

Battery mode is changed in employing, requires that Vehicular dynamic battery must standardization, as long as the electrokinetic cell of standard just can be changed immediately like this.Vehicular dynamic battery does not belong to car owner, without the need to buying, the mode of lease can be adopted to use.

Adopt the electric automobile user changing battery mode can rent the electrokinetic cell being full of electricity, change the electrokinetic cell having exhausted electric energy, be conducive to the service efficiency improving vehicle, improve convenience and the agility of user's use, the maintainer of specialty is had to safeguard, can problem in Timeliness coverage battery, to the maintenance work of battery, there is positive meaning.But because present stage electrokinetic cell industry is also at an early stage of development, also there is the problems such as battery energy density is low, and course continuation mileage is short, and life cycle is short in battery; Changing under power mode, whom the line service of battery born by, when there is safety problem responsibility this how to define etc. be all have problem to be solved.

Energy supply pattern due to three kinds of electrokinetic cells has oneself relative merits separately, and in the evolution of promotion ev industry, the energy supply pattern of three kinds of electrokinetic cells will coexist.This just needs in different situations, and analyze the cost of the energy supply pattern of three kinds of electrokinetic cells, the construction of electric automobile being filled to electrical changing station provides policy-making analysis.

Analytical hierarchy process (The Analytic Hierarchy Process, be called for short AHP) to be planned strategies for scholar by the U.S., University of Pittsburgh Sa Di teaches and proposes the seventies, AHP method is a kind of method of fixed guantity combining with fixed quality, by the method that the subjective judgement of people is expressed with Number Forms and processed.AHP method resolves into each compositing factor challenge usually, again these factors is formed recursive hierarchy structure by dominance relation grouping.By the relative importance of factors in the mode determination level that compares between two, the then judgement of decision making package person, determines total sequence of relative importance in decision scheme.

Summary of the invention

The object of this invention is to provide a kind of Cost Analysis Method of the electric automobile energy supply based on analytical hierarchy process, with the cost by analyzing three kinds of electric automobile energy supply patterns in different situations, the construction of filling electrical changing station for electric automobile provides policy-making analysis.

Technical scheme of the present invention: a kind of Cost Analysis Method of electric automobile power battery energy supply pattern, the method comprises the steps:

Step 1, builds hierarchy Model: with electric automobile energy supply cost for destination layer, take evaluation index as rule layer, with the sub-index of evaluation index in rule layer for sub-rule layer, with alternative energy content of battery supply pattern for solution layer;

Step 2, structure multilevel iudge matrix:

According to 1 ~ 9 Scale Method quantitatively evaluating same layer minor element u ₁, u ₂, u ₃..., u _nduring each concrete criterion is secondary to last layer, the importance of corresponding criterion, constructs multilevel iudge matrix between two,

$u_i:u_j\⇒a_{\mathrm{ij}},$ A＝(a _ij) _n×n，a _ij＞0， $a_{\mathrm{ji}}=\frac{1}{a_{\mathrm{ij}}}$

Wherein, a _ijtwo element u of same level _iwith u _jrelative to corresponding criterion in last layer time important ratio compared with scale value, A is the matrix of multilevel iudge between two of structure, and n is matrix exponent number;

Step 3, calculates weight vector: computing formula is A ω=λ _maxω, wherein, λ _maxbe the Maximum characteristic root of matrix A, ω is corresponding proper vector, can obtain weight vector to the ω obtained after normalization;

Step 4, consistency check: according to following formula, the consistance of compute matrix:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{CI}=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max }-n}{n-1}\\ \mathrm{CR}=\frac{\mathrm{CI}}{\mathrm{RI}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, CI is coincident indicator, and RI is corresponding Aver-age Random Consistency Index, and its value can check according to table 2, CR is judgment matrix approach ratio, if CR<0.1, think that matrix has consistance, otherwise matrix do not have consistance, the importance returning step 2 pair criterion passes judgment on quantification again, and structure judges comparator matrix, then re-start step 3 and step 4, until matrix has consistance;

Table 2

Matrix exponent number	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
								RI value	0	0	0.52	0.89	1.12	1.26	1.36
Matrix exponent number	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
								RI value	1.41	1.46	1.49	1.52	1.54	1.56	1.58

Step 5, the synthesis weight vector of each scheme of output scheme layer;

Step 6, carries out decision analysis.

Beneficial effect of the present invention is: method of the present invention can the many factors of comprehensive analyzing influence electric automobile power battery energy supply cost, and the construction of filling electrical changing station for electric automobile provides policy-making analysis.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the algorithm flow chart of the analytical hierarchy process that the present invention uses.

Fig. 2 is the concrete recursive hierarchy structure schematic diagram of electric automobile energy supply pattern Cost Analysis Method of the present invention.

Embodiment

With reference to the accompanying drawings, in conjunction with concrete embodiment, the present invention is described further.

As depicted in figs. 1 and 2, electric automobile power battery energy supply Cost Analysis Method of the present invention comprises the following steps:

Step 1, build hierarchy Model: with the cost of electric automobile power battery energy supply pattern for destination layer A, with financial cost B1, social cost B2 and Environmental costs B3 tri-class evaluation index are rule layer, with the sub-index of evaluation index in rule layer for sub-rule layer, the sub-index of financial cost B1 is time cost C1, electrical changing station cost C2 is filled in construction, Operation and Maintenance cost C3, battery depreciable cost C4, the sub-index of social cost B2 is build to fill electrical changing station or charging pile to the impact C5 of electrical network, the human cost C6 needed and neighbouring resident migration cost C7, the sub-index of Environmental costs B3 is the pollution C8 of old and useless battery to environment and the consumption C9 of battery raw material, with alternative energy content of battery supply pattern for solution layer, comprise conventional charge mode, fast charge mode and change battery mode,

Step 2,1 ~ 9 Scale Method (as shown in table 2) the quantitatively evaluating same layer minor element u proposed according to Saaty ₁, u ₂, u ₃..., u _nduring each concrete criterion is secondary to last layer, the importance of corresponding criterion, constructs multilevel iudge matrix between two, order a=(a _ij) _{n × n}, known a _ij> 0,

Wherein, a _ijtwo element u of same level _iwith u _jrelative to a certain criterion in last layer time important ratio compared with scale value, A is the matrix of multilevel iudge between two of structure, and n is matrix exponent number;

Table 3

Scale value	Implication
		1	Represent that factor compares between two, have " of equal importance "
3	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " more important "
		5	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " important "
7	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " very important "
		9	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " extremely important "
1/3	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " more secondary "
		1/5	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " secondary "
1/7	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " very secondary "
		1/9	Represent that factor compares between two, a factor is than another factor " very secondary "
2,4,6,8,1/2,1/4,1/6,1/8	Represent the intermediate value of above-mentioned adjacent judgement

Step 3, calculates weight vector: computing formula is A ω=λ _maxω, wherein, λ _maxbe the Maximum characteristic root of matrix A, ω is corresponding proper vector, can obtain weight vector to the ω obtained after normalization;

Step 4, consistency check: according to following formula, the consistance of compute matrix:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{CI}=\frac{{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_{\max }-n}{n-1}\\ \mathrm{CR}=\frac{\mathrm{CI}}{\mathrm{RI}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, CI is coincident indicator, and n is matrix exponent number, and RI is corresponding Aver-age Random Consistency Index, CR is judgment matrix approach ratio, if CR<0.1, think that matrix has consistance, otherwise matrix do not have consistance, the importance returning step 2 pair criterion passes judgment on quantification again, and structure judges comparator matrix, then re-start step 3 and step 4, until matrix has consistance;

Construct multilevel iudge matrix according to step 2, the judgment matrix obtained and corresponding weight vector thereof are as shown in table 3-table 15.Give corresponding matrix Consistency Ratio often opening below form.

Table 3

CR＝0.0137

Table 4

CR＝0.0782

Table 5

CR＝0.0697

Table 6

CR＝0.0000

Table 7

CR＝0.0697

Table 8

CR＝0.0720

Table 9

CR＝0.0314

Table 10

CR＝0.0210

Table 11

CR＝0.0840

Table 12

CR＝0.0238

Table 13

CR＝0.0015

Table 14

CR＝0.0280

Table 15

CR＝0.0105

Step 5, the synthesis weight vector of each scheme of output scheme layer:

The synthesis weight vector that can be obtained each scheme by table 3-table 15 is:

ω＝(0.3296,0.2245,0.4459) ^T

Step 6, carries out decision analysis: known, and after considering above many factors, the cost magnitude relationship of three kinds of schemes is: change battery > normal charge > rapid charge.

The above is only an example of the present invention, and not do any pro forma restriction to the present invention, those skilled in the art utilize the technology contents of above-mentioned announcement to make a little simple modification, and equivalent variations or modification all drop in protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (1)

1., based on the electric automobile energy supply Cost Analysis Method of analytical hierarchy process, it is characterized in that step is as follows:

Step 1, builds hierarchy Model: with electric automobile energy supply cost for destination layer, take evaluation index as rule layer, with the sub-index of evaluation index in rule layer for sub-rule layer, with alternative energy content of battery supply pattern for solution layer;

Step 2, structure multilevel iudge matrix:

According to 1 ~ 9 Scale Method quantitatively evaluating same layer minor element u ₁, u ₂, u ₃..., u _nduring each concrete criterion is secondary to last layer, the importance of corresponding criterion, constructs multilevel iudge matrix between two,

$u_i:u_j\&DoubleRightArrow;a_{\mathrm{ij}},$ A＝(a _ij) _n×n，a _ij＞0， $a_{\mathrm{ji}}=\frac{1}{a_{\mathrm{ij}}}$

Wherein, a _ijtwo element u of same level _iwith u _jrelative to corresponding criterion in last layer time important ratio compared with scale value, A is the matrix of multilevel iudge between two of structure, and n is matrix exponent number;

Step 3, calculates weight vector: computing formula is A ω=λ _maxω, wherein, λ _maxbe the Maximum characteristic root of matrix A, ω is corresponding proper vector, can obtain weight vector to the ω obtained after normalization;

Step 4, consistency check: according to following formula, the consistance of compute matrix:

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{CI}=\frac{{\mathrm{\&lambda;}}_{\max }-n}{n-1}\\ \mathrm{CR}=\frac{\mathrm{CI}}{\mathrm{RI}}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, CI is coincident indicator, and RI is corresponding Aver-age Random Consistency Index, and its value can check according to table 1, CR is judgment matrix approach ratio, if CR<0.1, think that matrix has consistance, otherwise matrix do not have consistance, the importance returning step 2 pair criterion passes judgment on quantification again, and structure judges comparator matrix, then re-start step 3 and step 4, until matrix has consistance;

Table 1

Matrix exponent number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 RI value 0 0 0.52 0.89 1.12 1.26 1.36 Matrix exponent number 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 RI value 1.41 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58

Step 5, the synthesis weight vector of each scheme of output scheme layer;

Step 6, carries out decision analysis.