CN104346695A - Emergency dispatching circumstance generation method for water pollution emergency - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses an emergency dispatching circumstance generation method for water pollution emergency. The technology comprises the steps of carrying out preliminary information identification on the water pollution emergency, wherein the information comprises the occurrence time, occurrence place, belonging reach, pollutant type, amount of in-river pollutant and development state of the water pollution emergency; rapidly giving the main characteristics of the pollutant according to the preliminary information, wherein the main characteristics comprise whether the pollutant has toxin, whether the pollutant is dissolved in water, the specific gravity of the pollutant, main harm and conventional measures; automatically matching the emergency scheduling measure; and carrying out analog simulation on the scheme. According to the method, the emergency dispatching circumstance is automatically generated by rapid diagnosis and recognition according to the preliminary information of the water pollution emergency, and the measure is rapidly given according to the comparison and selection of a scheme library, so that the rapid judgment, scheme matching and circumstance generation of the water pollution emergency can be realized, and emergency disposal and management of the water pollution emergency can be conveniently carried out.

Description

A kind of towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method

Technical field

The invention belongs to sudden incidents report field, particularly relate to a kind of towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method.

Background technology

Along with the frequent generation of water pollutions accident, the scenarios generation of emergency scheduling is made correct response with simulation for decision maker and is seemed particularly important in contingency management.Current emergency scheduling scenarios generation or the scheme of macro-management aspect can only be made according to emergency preplan, or need huge emergency scheduling simulation and computing system as support, be difficult to reasonably make the scheme that can be used for decision maker to operate fast.For this reason, need a kind of fast, can the scenarios generation method of Whole Process Simulation accident, for the scientific and reasonable counter-measure made towards water pollutions accident provides decision-making foundation.

Summary of the invention

The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method, be intended to the scheme solving current emergency scheduling scenarios generation or macro-management aspect can only be made according to emergency preplan, need huge emergency scheduling simulation and computing system as support, be difficult to reasonably make the protocol questions that can be used for decision maker to operate fast.

The present invention is achieved in that one comprises the steps: towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method

Step one, the identification of burst water contamination accident previous information, comprise water pollutions accident time of origin, place, affiliated section, pollutant type, pollutants discharged into rivers total amount, state of development, wherein importantly time of origin, place, pollutant title and total amount;

Step 2, according to previous information, the key property providing pollutant fast comprises whether poisonous, whether water-soluble, proportion, main harm, conventional counter-measure;

Step 3, the measure of Auto-matching emergency scheduling;

Step 4, program simulation emulate, according to identifying the most similar sight, by generating scheduling scheme, based on the data of Real-Time Monitoring, utilize reservoir dispatching system and river water quality and water yield analogy model, simulation calculation is carried out to scheduling scheme, provides integrated scheduling and analog result.

Further, the concrete grammar of described Auto-matching emergency scheduling measure is:

Adopt Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method, according to the information that step one and step 2 obtain or infer, discriminance analysis is carried out according to the sight in the leading indicators such as pollutant type, time of origin, scene and sight storehouse, and choose the sight of degree of membership front three, as the alternatives that program simulation calculates, adopt and carry out cluster analysis based on the fuzzy optimal generalized weighed distance Fuzzy Partition Theory analytical model that adds to emergency event, coupling history emergency scheduling sight and measure, its objective function is:

$\min \{F=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{h=1}{\overset{c}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\left[{u_{\mathrm{hj}}}^p\sqrt{\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_{\mathrm{ij}}{(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ih}})}^p}\right]}^2\}$

Wherein: F is objective function, u _hjfor sample to be identified belongs to the degree of membership of h class, ω _ijfor weight coefficient, r _ijfor index feature value standardizing number, S _ihfor fuzzy classification center matrix, p is distance parameter;

Get p=2, subordinate function computing formula can be derived, as follows:

$u_{\mathrm{hj}}=1/[\underset{k=1}{\overset{c}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{\left[{\mathrm{\ω}}_i(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ih}})\right]}^2}{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{\left[{\mathrm{\ω}}_i(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ik}})\right]}^2}.$

Further, the concrete grammar of described program simulation emulation is:

Utilize water quality, the water yield relational matrix of the different pollutants established, the water quality of each main cross sections different time and traffic forecast value, carry out evaluate alternatives, and Fast simulation selectes the emergency scheduling overall process under scheduling scheme.

effect gathers

The present invention is according to the previous information of water pollutions accident, automatically emergency scheduling sight is generated by quick diagnosis and identification, and select according to the ratio of scheme base and provide counte-rplan fast, realize, to burst water contamination accident Quick, scheme coupling and scenarios generation, facilitating water pollutions accident emergency disposal and management.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method that the embodiment of the present invention provides.

Embodiment

In order to make object of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly understand, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is further elaborated.Should be appreciated that specific embodiment described herein only in order to explain the present invention, be not intended to limit the present invention.

Fig. 1 shows the process flow diagram towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method of the present invention, and as shown in the figure, the present invention is achieved in that one comprises the steps: towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method

S101, the identification of burst water contamination accident previous information, comprise water pollutions accident time of origin, place, affiliated section, pollutant type, pollutants discharged into rivers total amount, state of development, wherein importantly time of origin, place, pollutant title and total amount;

S102, according to previous information, the key property providing pollutant fast comprises whether poisonous, whether water-soluble, proportion, main harm, conventional counter-measure;

S103, the measure of Auto-matching emergency scheduling, according to contamination accident time of origin, place, hydrologic condition, pollutant characteristic condition, utilize fuzzy clustering algorithm, according to the maximum principle of degree of membership, the scheme that the measure of coupling emergency scheduling is concentrated, and can by manually revising Adjusted Option;

Adopt Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method, according to the information that step one and step 2 obtain or infer, discriminance analysis is carried out according to the sight in the leading indicators such as pollutant type, time of origin, scene and sight storehouse, and choose the sight of degree of membership front three, as the alternatives that program simulation calculates, adopt and carry out cluster analysis based on the fuzzy optimal generalized weighed distance Fuzzy Partition Theory analytical model that adds to emergency event, coupling history emergency scheduling sight and measure, its objective function is:

$\min \{F=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{h=1}{\overset{c}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\left[{u_{\mathrm{hj}}}^p\sqrt{\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_{\mathrm{ij}}{(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ih}})}^p}\right]}^2\}$

Wherein: F is objective function, u _hjfor sample to be identified belongs to the degree of membership of h class, ω _ijfor weight coefficient, r _ijfor index feature value standardizing number, S _ihfor fuzzy classification center matrix, p is distance parameter;

Get p=2, subordinate function computing formula can be derived, as follows:

$u_{\mathrm{hj}}=1/[\underset{k=1}{\overset{c}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{\left[{\mathrm{\ω}}_i(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ih}})\right]}^2}{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{\left[{\mathrm{\ω}}_i(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ik}})\right]}^2}.$

S104, program simulation emulate, and utilize water quality, the water yield relational matrix of the different pollutants established, the water quality of each main cross sections different time and traffic forecast value, carry out evaluate alternatives, and Fast simulation selectes the emergency scheduling overall process under scheduling scheme.

The present invention is according to the previous information of water pollutions accident, automatically emergency scheduling sight is generated by quick diagnosis and identification, and select according to the ratio of scheme base and provide counte-rplan fast, realize, to burst water contamination accident Quick, scheme coupling and scenarios generation, facilitating water pollutions accident emergency disposal and management.

By reference to the accompanying drawings the specific embodiment of the present invention is described although above-mentioned; but not limiting the scope of the invention; one of ordinary skill in the art should be understood that; on the basis of technical scheme of the present invention, those skilled in the art do not need to pay various amendment or distortion that performing creative labour can make still within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (3)

1. towards a water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method, it is characterized in that, described comprises the steps: towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method

Step one, the identification of burst water contamination accident previous information, comprise water pollutions accident time of origin, place, affiliated section, pollutant type, pollutants discharged into rivers total amount, state of development, wherein importantly time of origin, place, pollutant title and total amount;

Step 2, according to previous information, the key property providing pollutant fast comprises whether poisonous, whether water-soluble, proportion, main harm, conventional counter-measure;

Step 3, the measure of Auto-matching emergency scheduling;

Step 4, program simulation emulate, according to identifying the most similar sight, by generating scheduling scheme, based on the data of Real-Time Monitoring, utilize reservoir dispatching system and river water quality and water yield analogy model, simulation calculation is carried out to scheduling scheme, provides integrated scheduling and analog result.

2. as claimed in claim 1 towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method, it is characterized in that, the concrete grammar of described Auto-matching emergency scheduling measure is:

Adopt Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method, according to the information that step one and step 2 obtain or infer, discriminance analysis is carried out according to the sight in pollutant type, time of origin, scene index and sight storehouse, and choose the sight of degree of membership front three, as the alternatives that program simulation calculates, adopt and carry out cluster analysis based on the fuzzy optimal generalized weighed distance Fuzzy Partition Theory analytical model that adds to emergency event, coupling history emergency scheduling sight and measure, objective function is:

$\min \{F=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{h=1}{\overset{c}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\left[u_{\mathrm{hj}}\sqrt[p]{\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\mathrm{\ω}}_{\mathrm{ij}}{(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ih}})}^p}\right]}^2\}$

Wherein: F is objective function, u _hjfor sample to be identified belongs to the degree of membership of h class, ω _ijfor weight coefficient, r _ijfor index feature value standardizing number, S _ihfor fuzzy classification center matrix, p is distance parameter;

Get p=2, derive subordinate function computing formula, as follows:

$u_{\mathrm{hj}}=1/[\underset{k=1}{\overset{c}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{\left[{\mathrm{\ω}}_i(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ih}})\right]}^2}{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^m{\left[{\mathrm{\ω}}_i(r_{\mathrm{ij}}-S_{\mathrm{ik}})\right]}^2}.$

3. as claimed in claim 1 towards water pollutions accident emergency scheduling scenarios generation method, it is characterized in that, the concrete grammar of described program simulation emulation is:

Utilize water quality, the water yield relational matrix of the different pollutants established, the water quality of each main cross sections different time and traffic forecast value, carry out evaluate alternatives, and Fast simulation selectes the emergency scheduling overall process under scheduling scheme.