CN104103005A - Traceability method of unexpected water environmental event pollution source under limited condition - Google Patents
Traceability method of unexpected water environmental event pollution source under limited condition Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a pollution source traceability system, which comprises an information acquisition device, an input device, a processor comprising a decision support model, an output display device and a memory, wherein the memory stores various pieces of parameter information of known pollution types as well as the geographic information, the pollution events and the solution histories of an area which needs to be monitored; the information acquisition device is used for collecting monitoring data from a pollution source or receiving pollution source monitoring data returned from a monitoring point; the pollution source monitoring data can be manually input through the input device; the input device and the output display device can be used for man-machine interaction to confirm whether an input parameter is complete and decide display output after a model is established; the decision support model is loaded in a processor; the processor comprising the decision support model receives data from the information acquisition device or the input device; the received data is subjected to corresponding processing according to established model; and after processing, feedback is given, and a solution suitable for implementation is formed.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the source tracing method of sudden water environment event pollution source under a kind of limited condition, wherein relate in particular to the decision support template that a kind of pollution source are traced to the source, for receiving collected data and analyzing, thereby Analysis deterrmination is carried out in pollution source source, and set up pollution source by the dynamic development model of time shaft, for preventing that pollution source from resulting in greater loss, provide decision-making foundation.
Background technology
Water pollution accident takes place frequently in recent years, and the situation of the current water pollution accident facing of China is very severe.Have a great difference with external situation, in China, to have the contamination accident of significant proportion be first environmental pollution just knows that accident occurs, and even many accidents source (comprising mobile source) is not still in surroundings supervised entities.At present in water environment emergency, search accident source main or adopt the method for artificial investigation, workload is huge, and can incur loss through delay processing opportunity.
The emergent research of existing water environment mainly concentrates on the aspect such as restoration methods and evaluation after environment emphasis source control, auto-real-time monitoring and early warning, event simulation and emulation, quick emergency response scheme, calamity, all based on carrying out under the known assumed condition in contamination accident source.From contamination accident environmental behavior characteristics, relying on the search of technological means snap back, contamination accident source, location is the great difficult problem that scientific research and practice face of meeting an urgent need at present.
There are some defects in existing pollution source searching method: manually investigating is to put into practice at present Main Means in work in conjunction with monitoring method, but the human and material resources of its cost are huge, and overlong time; The applicable pollutant type of isotope analysis/fingerprint method is less, wastes time and energy equally, is applicable to tentatively determine pollution source category; Based on GIS (Geographic Information System, Geographic Information System or Geo-Information system, sometimes being called again " learn infosystem ") the technology method of setting up environment information database requires high to the basis of data, and in many situations, the pollution sources information environmental protection administrative authority that do not report for work.These problems cause many technology application in actual emergency to have very large difficulty, such as in Guangxi in 2012 Longjiang cadmium pollution event, while finding that river is contaminated, the investigation condition that is presented in responding agencies is considerably less, some basic hydrology-water quality information that only have relevant pollution monitoring and river, available information is few and disperse, and through a large amount of just discovery accidents of investigation work, is that enterprise steals row and causes, and it is impossible find source that this situation is calculated by conventional GIS data retrieval and model.
The present invention is intended to propose a kind of system or method one of addresses the above problem, and higher hit rate can be provided, and by robotization means, improves investigation efficiency, and the solution that is suitable for enforcement also can be provided.
Summary of the invention
[0006] the present invention has optimized water pollution accident arrange distinguish method, set up the accident source tracing technology of the multi-method based on technology such as optimum search theory, source item tracing model, intelligent spatial decision back-up systems, the coupling of many means, solved that prior art system application surface is narrow, workload is large, the problem of length consuming time, especially in the poor region of Information base, how to search accident source provide one fast, accurate solution route.
According to one of them goal of the invention of the present invention, a kind of pollution source traceability system is wherein provided, described traceability system comprises information collecting device and input media, the processor that comprises decision support template, output display device, store the various parameter informations of known pollution type and need monitored area geography information, the storer of contamination accident and solution historical record, information collecting device is for gathering the Monitoring Data from pollution source, or receive the Pollution Source Monitoring data that beam back monitoring point, described Pollution Source Monitoring data also can be passed through artificial input by input media, input media, output display device can be used for man-machine interaction and determines the demonstration output after the whether complete and decision model of the parameter input is set up, in processor, be loaded with decision support template, describedly comprise that the processor of decision support template receives data from information collecting device or input media, the received data based model of having set up is processed accordingly, after processing, feed back and form and be suitable for the solution implemented.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein decision support template comprises source item model, optimum pollution source search model, optimum pollution source search model, source item model is mainly used in determining the type of polluting, and select applicable parameter according to pollution type, combining geographic information again, generate optimum pollution source search model, the information that described decision support template can constantly be inputted according to input media continues to adjust further determine accurately pollution source, improve the efficiency and the hit rate that there are search model most, described Optimal Search Model is determined optimum search plan in conjunction with the actual factors such as equipment level of implementing again.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein said emergency monitoring model can be determined emergency monitoring model according to selected source item model, the optimum pollution source search model that generates, with further continual allotment optimum detection equipment and carry out actual enforcement, obtain in time continuously in up-to-date Monitoring Data input decision support template and form feedback mechanism, constantly Optimal Decision-making support model.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein output display device can be by above-mentioned decision support template and the source item comprising model, optimum pollution source search model, express and be presented in display device to emergency monitoring model visualization, to reflect intuitively the result after decision model is processed.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein Pollution Source Monitoring data comprise data or the information that monitoring, on-site inspection, remote sensing obtain.
Another goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein, be applied in among pollution source traceability system, described traceability system comprises information collecting device and input media, the processor that comprises decision support template, output display device, store the various parameter informations of known pollution type and need monitored area geography information, the storer of contamination accident and solution historical record, information collecting device is for gathering the Monitoring Data from pollution source, or receive the Pollution Source Monitoring data that beam back monitoring point, described Pollution Source Monitoring data also can be passed through artificial input by input media, input media, output display device can be used for man-machine interaction and determines the demonstration output after the whether complete and decision model of the parameter input is set up, in processor, be loaded with decision support template, describedly comprise that the processor of decision support template receives data from information collecting device or input media, the received data based model of having set up is processed accordingly, after processing, feed back and form and be suitable for the solution implemented, its feature exists, described pollution source source tracing method comprises the steps:
Step 1: the data message trigger event that Input Monitor Connector point detects, or manual activation event, start decision support template;
Step 2: determine decision region, the data that input is obtained from means such as monitoring, on-site inspection, remote sensing; Trigger spatial analysis model, search and excavation related data; Carry out data assimilation, for model calculates, prepare data;
Step 3: utilize source item model to calculate possibility analysis region;
Step 4: follow according to result of calculation and correlated condition, setting search condition, analyzes the optimal search scheme that obtains shortest time;
Step 5: step 3-4 result feedback spatial decision model, and by GIS Visualization, the manual command who inputs in conjunction with human-computer interaction interface optimizes emergency monitoring scheme;
Step 6: the manual command in conjunction with human-computer interaction interface input, according to feedback result, proceed to step 2-5, forms a circulation, the iterative method that at every turn circulates dwindles hunting zone, until scope while narrowing down to certain category, is carried out scene, investigates and finds pollution source.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein said pollution source are that water pollutes.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, it calculates pollution source position, source strength in conjunction with Bayesian inference (formula 2) wherein to utilize One-dimensional River unstable state water quality model (formula 1)
Distribution and the computing method of probability as follows:
Main method is: utilize One-dimensional River unstable state water quality model (formula 1) in conjunction with Bayesian inference (formula 2), calculate distribution and the probability of pollution source position, source strength;
（1）
For pollutant levels;
for river cross-section area;
for river cross-section flow;
for section mixing coefficient of diffusion;
for rate of contaminant degradation constant;
for source, the item that converges,
for the time, X is distance, characterizes the distance between future position and pollution source;
for source, the item that converges, characterize the quality of pollution source;
（2）
it is model parameter; Y is observation data, for rear actual measurement data occurs environmental pollution by water event;
before being illustrated in and not obtaining measurement data, the understanding to unknown distribution of model parameters, is mainly derived from data, experience and subjective judgement etc. in the past; By historical data and experience, the parameter distribution of judgment models.
the degree that represents Estimating The Model Coefficients measurement data, larger expression fitting effect is better, and this parameter is for the gap between judgment models parameter and measurement data;
be illustrated in measurement data and obtain the regularity of distribution of model parameter afterwards, be the solution of the indirect problem under statistics inverting meaning.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein decision support template comprises source item model, optimum pollution source search model, optimum pollution source search model, source item model is mainly used in determining the type of polluting, and select applicable parameter according to pollution type, combining geographic information again, generate optimum pollution source search model, the information that described decision support template can constantly be inputted according to input media continues to adjust further determine accurately pollution source, improve the efficiency and the hit rate that there are search model most, described Optimal Search Model is determined optimum search plan in conjunction with the actual factors such as equipment level of implementing again.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein Pollution Source Monitoring data comprise data or the information that monitoring, on-site inspection, remote sensing obtain.
The further goal of the invention according to the present invention, wherein optimum pollution source search model utilizes following mathematical model to solve:
Search function, as formula 3, utilizes application lagrange's method of multipliers to solve,
（3）
K is search time, and f is allocative decision, and c is searching cost.
four, accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is model illustrative view of functional configuration of the present invention.
five, embodiment
With reference to figure 1, comprising a pollution source traceability system, described traceability system comprises information collecting device and input media, the processor that comprises decision support template, output display device, store the various parameter informations of known pollution type and need monitored area geography information, the storer of contamination accident and solution historical record, information collecting device is for gathering the Monitoring Data from pollution source, or receive the Pollution Source Monitoring data (monitoring of beaming back monitoring point, on-site inspection, the data that remote sensing obtains or information), described Pollution Source Monitoring data also can be passed through artificial input by input media, input media, output display device can be used for man-machine interaction and determines the demonstration output after the whether complete and decision model of the parameter input is set up, in processor, be loaded with decision support template, in described decision support template, further comprise source item model and have search model most and emergency monitoring model, describedly comprise that the processor of decision support template receives data from information collecting device or input media, the received data based model of having set up is processed accordingly, after processing, feed back and form and be suitable for the solution implemented.Wherein source item model is mainly used in determining the type of polluting, and select applicable parameter according to pollution type, combining geographic information again, generate optimum pollution source search model, the information that described model can constantly be inputted according to input media continues to adjust further determine accurately pollution source, improve the efficiency and the hit rate that there are search model most, described Optimal Search Model is determined optimum search plan in conjunction with the actual factors such as equipment level of implementing again.Described emergency monitoring model can be determined emergency monitoring model according to selected source item model, the optimum pollution source search model that generates, with further continual allotment optimum detection equipment and carry out actual enforcement, obtain in time continuously in up-to-date Monitoring Data input decision support template and form feedback mechanism, Optimal Decision-making support model (comprising source item model wherein, optimum pollution source search model) constantly, described decision support template and the source item model comprising thereof, optimum pollution source search model, emergency monitoring model.Output display device wherein can be set up " spatial analysis model " by above-mentioned all models (decision support template and the source item model comprising thereof, optimum pollution source search model, emergency monitoring model) and express visually and be presented in display device, to reflect intuitively the result after decision model is processed.Described " spatial analysis model " is according to the data model of the Visualization of decision support template of the present invention and the source item model comprising thereof, optimum pollution source search model, emergency monitoring model generation.
Utilize described pollution source traceability system, a kind of pollution source source tracing method is wherein also specifically provided, comprise the following steps:
Step 1: after accident is informed of a case, spatial decision platform triggers decision-making, input the information of being informed of a case, or according to the information trigger event of monitoring point, start pollution source traceability system, also can continue to monitor pollution source, when pollution source parameter reaches early warning value or warning value, trigger decision support template and carry out emergency event tupe.
Step 2: determine decision region, the data that input is obtained from means such as monitoring, on-site inspection, remote sensing; Trigger spatial analysis model, search and excavation related data; Carry out data assimilation, for model calculates, prepare data.
Step 3: utilizing source item model to calculate may analysis region, and (the water pollution of only take in this step describes as example, in fact, air pollution, soil pollution, food and vegetables pollute and contact pathogen transmission all can be followed this method, and the formula of mathematical just wherein used is not necessarily identical);
Main method is: utilize One-dimensional River unstable state water quality model (formula 1) in conjunction with Bayesian inference (formula 2), calculate distribution and the probability of pollution source position, source strength.
（1）
for pollutant levels;
for river cross-section area;
for river cross-section flow;
for section mixing coefficient of diffusion;
for rate of contaminant degradation constant;
for source, the item that converges;
for the time, X is distance, characterizes the distance between future position and pollution source;
for source, the item that converges, characterize the quality of pollution source.
（2）
it is model parameter; Y is observation data, for rear actual measurement data occurs environmental pollution by water event;
before being illustrated in and not obtaining measurement data, the understanding to unknown distribution of model parameters, is mainly derived from data, experience and subjective judgement etc. in the past; By historical data and experience, the parameter distribution of judgment models.
the degree that represents Estimating The Model Coefficients measurement data, larger expression fitting effect is better, and this parameter is for the gap between judgment models parameter and measurement data.
be illustrated in measurement data and obtain the regularity of distribution of model parameter afterwards, be the solution of the indirect problem under statistics inverting meaning.
Formula 2 is for carrying out the information such as intensity, position of inverting pollution source according to the water environment observation data of actual measurement, be the actual water pollution of a kind of solutions observation station containing control information, study the effective ways with the pollution source identification problem under measuring error condition.
Step 4: follow according to result of calculation and correlated condition, setting search condition, analyzes the optimal search scheme that obtains shortest time.
Search function, as formula 3, utilizes application lagrange's method of multipliers to solve.
（3）
K is search time, and f is allocative decision, and c is searching cost.
Formula 1 provides the Water Environment Simulation technology distribution of pollutants information under supposition pollution source situation of utilizing; The distribution of pollutants of formula 2 for obtaining according to actual monitoring means, and the pollution source that provide in conjunction with formula 1 and pollution distributed intelligence, the effective ways of inverting pollution source identification; Formula 3 is according to the model calculation and corresponding observed result, and the analysis that adopts obtains the optimum search computing method of shortest time.
Step 5: step 3-4 result feedback spatial decision model, and by GIS Visualization, in conjunction with the manual command of human-computer interaction interface input, optimize emergency monitoring scheme.
Step 6: implement expert's scheme, in conjunction with the manual command of human-computer interaction interface input, according to feedback result, proceed to step 2-5, form a circulation, the iterative method that at every turn circulates dwindles hunting zone, until while narrowing down to certain category, carrying out scene investigation, scope finds pollution source.
1) research makes full use of the technology of the aspects such as GIS, monitoring network optimization, source item tracer technique, contamination accident inversion technique, and the contamination accident of improving that has formed " accident source range defines---accident source point is determined---accident inversion " is followed the trail of inversion technique system.
2) carry out suitable the determining method research of Complex water body Water Environment Simulation indirect problem, build the source item method for tracing of water pollution accident multi-method coupling,, combination tentative calculation parallel by each method, possibility, form and method that the methods such as Research statistics analysis, Rough Set, Artificial Neural Network, Bayesian inference, chemical quality balance, regional scale pattern are had complementary advantages, build the source item tracing model of multi-method and Mode Coupling, solve problems such as formulating while polluting control strategy decision information shortage during emergent;
3) uncertainty models is applied to source search, not only can reflect the locus in source, and relevant position confidence level can be provided, and effectively improves expert decision-making benefit;
4) solved preferably the assimilation of multi-source heterogeneous data, and multisystem, multi-mode and multiobject cross-platform integration technology;
5) systematic analysis is carried out in work present situation and the correlative study of water pollution accident investigation being traced to the source, introducing SDSS gets up the integrated application of existing dispersion achievement in research, water environment computation model, method of decision analysis and Spatial Data Analysis are carried out to organic combination, be conducive to many-sided technological means such as emergency monitoring, on-site inspection, expert decision-making analysis simultaneously and jointly play a role.
6) analyse in depth the feature of environmental model, build rational information model and model-base management system.Temporal evolution in system applies, (the source variation of the gradual perfection of external information, can be the existing system such as monitoring, management of environmental correclation), in native system, the running environment such as the parameter information of environmental model, boundary condition constantly changes, particularly emergency monitoring data especially not timing change.Frequently reset that to restart computing be infeasible, by model of mind, build, realized input data and effectively analyzed and assimilation in real time.
The useful reference that the contamination accident wherein stored and solution historical record provide successful case can to the pollution scheme of current generation, also can provide warning by the problem wherein existing.If described pollution source traceability system is moved continuously, also can be used as real-time pollution source detection system and use.
This research is well used in He Jiang cadmium pollution event emergency disposal in 2013 work, within the 3rd day after being informed of a case, has just accurately found accident source, and contrast is the pollution source investigation working time of similar large watershed contamination accident in the past, time shorten three times.
Although previous description and accompanying drawing have been described the preferred embodiments of the present invention, be understood that in the situation that not departing from spirit of the present invention, this can produce various additional, revise and replace.It will be apparent to those of skill in the art that in the situation that not departing from spirit of the present invention or intrinsic propesties, can and utilize other elements, material and parts to realize the present invention with other special shapes, structure, layout, ratio.Those skilled in the art will recognize: the present invention can use the structure, layout, ratio, material and the parts that in invention reality, use and other many modifications, these are modified in and in the situation that does not depart from principle of the present invention, are adapted to especially particular surroundings and operational requirements.Therefore, current disclosed embodiment should be understood to restriction illustrative but not scope that it is asked for protection in all respects.
Claims (11)
1. a pollution source traceability system, described traceability system comprises information collecting device and input media, the processor that comprises decision support template, output display device, store the various parameter informations of known pollution type and need monitored area geography information, the storer of contamination accident and solution historical record, information collecting device is for gathering the Monitoring Data from pollution source, or receive the Pollution Source Monitoring data that beam back monitoring point, described Pollution Source Monitoring data also can be passed through artificial input by input media, input media, output display device can be used for man-machine interaction and determines the demonstration output after the whether complete and decision model of the parameter input is set up, in processor, be loaded with decision support template, describedly comprise that the processor of decision support template receives data from information collecting device or input media, the received data based model of having set up is processed accordingly, after processing, feed back and form and be suitable for the solution implemented.
2. pollution source traceability system as claimed in claim 1, wherein decision support template comprises source item model, optimum pollution source search model, optimum pollution source search model, source item model is mainly used in determining the type of polluting, and select applicable parameter according to pollution type, combining geographic information again, generate optimum pollution source search model, the information that described decision support template can constantly be inputted according to input media continues to adjust further determine accurately pollution source, improve the efficiency and the hit rate that there are search model most, described Optimal Search Model is determined optimum search plan in conjunction with the actual factors such as equipment level of implementing again.
3. pollution source traceability system as claimed in claim 1, wherein said emergency monitoring model can be determined emergency monitoring model according to selected source item model, the optimum pollution source search model that generates, with further continual allotment optimum detection equipment and carry out actual enforcement, obtain in time continuously in up-to-date Monitoring Data input decision support template and form feedback mechanism, constantly Optimal Decision-making support model.
4. pollution source traceability system as claimed in claim 1, output display device wherein can be by above-mentioned decision support template and the source item comprising model, optimum pollution source search model, express and be presented in display device to emergency monitoring model visualization, to reflect intuitively the result after decision model is processed.
5. pollution source traceability system as claimed in claim 1, wherein Pollution Source Monitoring data comprise data or the information that monitoring, on-site inspection, remote sensing obtain.
6. a pollution source source tracing method, be applied in among pollution source traceability system, described traceability system comprises information collecting device and input media, the processor that comprises decision support template, output display device, store the various parameter informations of known pollution type and need monitored area geography information, the storer of contamination accident and solution historical record, information collecting device is for gathering the Monitoring Data from pollution source, or receive the Pollution Source Monitoring data that beam back monitoring point, described Pollution Source Monitoring data also can be passed through artificial input by input media, input media, output display device can be used for man-machine interaction and determines the demonstration output after the whether complete and decision model of the parameter input is set up, in processor, be loaded with decision support template, describedly comprise that the processor of decision support template receives data from information collecting device or input media, the received data based model of having set up is processed accordingly, after processing, feed back and form and be suitable for the solution implemented, its feature exists, described pollution source source tracing method comprises the steps:
Step 1: the data message trigger event that Input Monitor Connector point detects, or manual activation event, start decision support template;
Step 2: determine decision region, the data that input is obtained from means such as monitoring, on-site inspection, remote sensing; Trigger spatial analysis model, search and excavation related data; Carry out data assimilation, for model calculates, prepare data;
Step 3: utilize source item model to calculate possibility analysis region;
Step 4: follow according to result of calculation and correlated condition, setting search condition, analyzes the optimal search scheme that obtains shortest time;
Step 5: step 3-4 result feedback spatial decision model, and by GIS Visualization, the manual command who inputs in conjunction with human-computer interaction interface optimizes emergency monitoring scheme;
Step 6: the manual command in conjunction with human-computer interaction interface input, according to feedback result, proceed to step 2-5, forms a circulation, the iterative method that at every turn circulates dwindles hunting zone, until scope while narrowing down to certain category, is carried out scene, investigates and finds pollution source.
7. pollution source source tracing method as claimed in claim 6, is characterized in that described pollution source are that water pollutes.
8. pollution source source tracing method as claimed in claim 7, it calculates that pollution source position, the distribution of source strength and the computing method of probability are as follows in conjunction with Bayesian inference (formula 2) to it is characterized in that utilizing One-dimensional River unstable state water quality model (formula 1):
Main method is: utilize One-dimensional River unstable state water quality model (formula 1) in conjunction with Bayesian inference (formula 2), calculate distribution and the probability of pollution source position, source strength;
（1）
for pollutant levels;
for river cross-section area;
for river cross-section flow;
for section mixing coefficient of diffusion;
for rate of contaminant degradation constant;
for source, the item that converges;
for the time, X is distance, characterizes the distance between future position and pollution source;
for source, the item that converges, characterize the quality of pollution source;
（2）
be model parameter, y is observation data, for rear actual measurement data occurs environmental pollution by water event;
before being illustrated in and not obtaining measurement data, the understanding to unknown distribution of model parameters, is mainly derived from data, experience and subjective judgement etc. in the past; By historical data and experience, the parameter distribution of judgment models,
the degree that represents Estimating The Model Coefficients measurement data, larger expression fitting effect is better, and this parameter is for the gap between judgment models parameter and measurement data;
be illustrated in measurement data and obtain the regularity of distribution of model parameter afterwards, be the solution of the indirect problem under statistics inverting meaning.
9. pollution source source tracing method as claimed in claim 8, it is characterized in that wherein decision support template comprises source item model, optimum pollution source search model, optimum pollution source search model, source item model is mainly used in determining the type of polluting, and select applicable parameter according to pollution type, combining geographic information again, generate optimum pollution source search model, the information that described decision support template can constantly be inputted according to input media continues to adjust further determine accurately pollution source, improve the efficiency and the hit rate that there are search model most, described Optimal Search Model is determined optimum search plan in conjunction with the actual factors such as equipment level of implementing again.
10. pollution source source tracing method as claimed in claim 9, wherein Pollution Source Monitoring data comprise data or the information that monitoring, on-site inspection, remote sensing obtain.
11. pollution source source tracing methods as claimed in claim 9, wherein optimum pollution source search model utilizes following mathematical model to solve:
Search function, as formula 3, utilizes application lagrange's method of multipliers to solve,
（3）
K is search time, and f is allocative decision, and c is searching cost.
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