CN104331844B - A kind of power network construction project investment decision method - Google Patents
A kind of power network construction project investment decision method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention announces a kind of power network construction project investment decision method, project library is divided first, corresponding System of Comprehensive Evaluation is established for the construction project of different type difference voltage class, power network construction project investment decision system is then divided into 6 modules, including：Database module, capital expenditure prediction module, intelligent scoring module, decision-making module, correction verification module and data outputting module.Database module takes into full account the attribute feature of projects itself；Capital expenditure prediction module, intelligent scoring module and decision-making module consider the contact between different type difference voltage class project, including key project and the priority of high pressure annual investment plan supporting project, the preferential decision-making power of high pressure project.The investment decision method of the present invention carries out decision-making explanation exemplified by saving net key project, 220KV construction projects and 110KV construction projects, and construction project investment decision method proposed by the present invention is more of practical significance than conventional method and dissemination.
Description
Technical field
The present invention proposes a kind of new power network construction project investment decision method, belongs to the investment of power network construction project and determines
Plan technical field.
Background technology
With the fast development of economic society, power grid construction investment increases increasingly, and power network construction project also gradually increases.But
In actually building, due to the limitation of fund, the annual capital expenditure proposal of Provincial Power Grid Corporation can not possibly be within the same time
Solve all problems.Therefore, it is necessary to reference to power network present situation, optimize decision-making to annual investment plan, improve power grid construction
The service efficiency of capital fund.
Power network construction project investment decision is divided into two parts：(1) foundation of power network construction project assessment indicator system.I.e.
On the basis of feasibility analysis, economy, the stability of project are considered, Comprehensive Evaluation is carried out to project；(2) decision-making body
System.Annual capital expenditure proposal is filtered out according to the total storehouse of existing project.Need to consider project marking, fund during this
Relevance between constraint and each project.
A series of power network evaluation index method has been proposed in domestic and foreign scholars at present.Traditionally typically from Macroscopic Strategy
Build the evaluation indice of power network respectively with two aspects of microprocess, what macroscopic view aspect related generally to is：Power network is to society
Develop political value, economic value and the social value brought；And what microcosmic aspect related generally to is：The running status of power network and
Weak link.But these index systems are largely all concentrated in the total evaluation to power network development, not a set of to single
Effective evaluation system of construction project.Also, qualitative index is more in These parameters system, it is difficult to quantifies.For decision tree,
The comprehensive benefit of project can be generally weighed using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) at present, then by optimized algorithm such as：Bacterial chemotaxis solves
The method that method or interval based AHP and section 0/1 are planned determines the project preferentially built.But these decision trees are often
The benefit of project in itself is concentrated on, not the attribute feature in view of projects itself and relevance each other.
The content of the invention
The attributive character of project is have ignored for current power network assessment indicator system, the decision-making technique of power network construction project is not
The present Research of relevance between consideration project, so that the construction project annual investment plan that the system decision-making obtains is unreasonable, this
Invention takes into full account the attributive character, the supporting project of key project, the priority of the supporting project of high pressure project of project itself
And the contact between the construction project of different voltage class, propose a kind of new power network construction project investment decision method.
To achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is as follows：
A kind of power network construction project investment decision method, project warehouse is established according to data source first and divides project
Storehouse, the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of different types of construction project is then set up, further according to the pre- of each city's construction project investment
Measured value, the project in each city's construction project storehouse is given a mark respectively, sorted and decision-making is to obtain the year of province's net construction project
Investment plan is spent, it is comprised the following steps that：
Step A：Project warehouse and division project library are established, whether is then that emphasis item dividing is attached most importance to according to project
Project and conventional project.Conventional project is divided into following 3 class further according to voltage class, is respectively：Major network project (220KV and with
On), high-voltage distribution network project (110KV and 35KV) and mesolow distribution project (10KV and following).Have for key project exhausted
To priority, scoring and investment priority are not involved in；And to participate in scoring and establishing corresponding index system for conventional project；
Step B：Establish the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of 220KV and 110KV construction projects, the comprehensive evaluation index body of foundation
System is not only from security reliability, electric network coordination development and the Technical Economy lifting for macroscopically considering power network, and from microcosmic
The upper running status for considering power network is such as：The growth of based model for load duration, weak link is such as：Transformer station overloads, and the attribute of single project is such as：
Voltage class etc..In addition, the qualitative index in System of Comprehensive Evaluation is such as：Solves the problems, such as the project of equipment operation year limit for length
It is less；Remaining indices is quantitative target, directly can be obtained from the report of feasibility of construction project；
Step C：Construction project investment investment decision is established, is divided into 6 modules：Database module, capital expenditure prediction
Module, intelligent scoring module, decision-making module, correction verification module and data outputting module：
Step C-1：Database module is established, i.e. construction project warehouse forms what needs assessment sorted by conditional filtering
Each city's construction project storehouse of the whole province.
Step C-2：Establish capital expenditure prediction module.Data source is mainly：The GDP in each city, electricity sales amount, system adjust load and
Capital expenditure historical data.Prediction is then checked according to Investment Trend and performance analysis and obtains the whole province's year investment gross investment value.
The whole province's fund of capital investment is decomposed according still further to different cities, different voltage class, obtains difference city of the whole province, different voltage class
The investment of the construction project of (220KV and 110KV).
Step C-3：Establish intelligent scoring module.Qualitative index and quantitative finger are generally comprised in the assessment indicator system of project
Mark, mainly include again in quantitative target：Greatly, minimum and interval type index.For the solution in qualitative index such as major network index
Transformer station's overload in equipment time limit long operational time, high-voltage distribution network etc., it is that then marking is 100 points, is otherwise 60 points.Large
And interval type index is first to be converted into large index, by the fraction section of indices reduction to [60,100], then it is right
Indices carry out unified marking.After what the present invention took is the weight that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has determined each index, according to power
The score value weighted sum of weight and each index obtains the evaluation total score of the project.
Step C-4：Establish decision-making module.220KV capital construction is decomposed into for conventional construction project storehouse according to voltage class to throw
Money project and 110KV capital expenditure projects.Investment decision, then the construction project to 110KV first are carried out to 220KV construction project
Carry out investment decision.Before 110KV construction project sequence, 110KV construction projects storehouse need to reject 220KV capital expenditure proposals
Supporting project because it has priority, be not involved in the sequence of 110KV construction projects.Present invention primarily contemplates project year
In the case that degree gross investment is certain, project comprehensive benefit highest optimization problem.The construction project investment that the present invention establishes is determined
The mathematical modeling of plan is as follows：
Max Z=a1x1+a2x2+……+anxn
s.t. b1x1+b2x2+……+bnxn+S0≤S
In formula：x1, x2..., xnFor the decision variable of 1 to i each investment project, wherein xi0 or 1 is only, that is, eliminates or protects
Stay the project；aiThe score value of i-th of project；biThe investment of i-th of project；Z represents project comprehensive benefit scoring sum；S is item
Purpose gross investment；S0For the gross investment of emphasis project.
When reporting State Grid Corporation of China's construction project warehouse sequence or when power grid enterprises' investment is abundant, a is takeni=yi, yi
For marking of i-th of project according to appraisement system index, i.e., construction project is according to project score value optimizing decision；When power grid enterprises throw
When providing limited in one's ability, a is takeni=yi/biFor marking of i-th of project according to appraisement system index, biFor the investment of i-th of project
Volume；When power grid enterprises are pursued, project score value is maximum, and when investing minimum multiple target, then decision model is：
In formula：M is to retain the project for choosing investment in n project；A0And B0The total of project total score and project is represented respectively
Investment.
Step C-5：Establish correction verification module and data outputting module.After the different object function system decision-makings, obtain
The annual investment plan of component voltage grade, and according to each utility grid development of the whole province in database, using close loop negative feedback
Mode adjusts the investment of the construction project of each city's different type difference voltage class, finally exports 220KV and 110KV capital construction
Project annual investment plan.
There is above technical scheme to understand that power network construction project investment decision method proposed by the present invention, its is pre-
First construction project storehouse is reasonably divided, overcomes original power network construction project storehouse item types confusion, voltage class
Fuzzy present situation；The construction project assessment indicator system for the component voltage grade that the present invention establishes overcomes the evaluation index body of project
System ignore single project attributive character deficiency, when appraisement system must not establish can cause at that time follow-up intelligent sequencing with
Ranking results are also by irrational deficiency；The present invention considers the preferential of key project and high pressure annual investment plan supporting project
Power, the relevance that the preferential decision-making power of high pressure project is overcome between the non-consideration project of project decision system are not easy to project and always provided
Jin Ange cities and the deficiency of voltage class reasonable distribution decision-making.Construction project investment decision system proposed by the present invention is compared to general
More there is practical significance and dissemination.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of power network construction project investment decision method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is power network construction project warehouse Establishing process figure.
Fig. 3 a-3b are power network construction project System of Comprehensive Evaluation example, and wherein Fig. 3 a integrate for 220KV construction projects
Assessment indicator system；Fig. 3 b are 110KV construction project System of Comprehensive Evaluation.
Fig. 4 is power network construction project decision flow diagram.
Fig. 5 is that power network construction project investment predicts flow chart.
Fig. 6 is power network 220KV and 110KV construction project Decision Control flow chart.
Embodiment
The techniqueflow of invention is described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As shown in figure 1, according to the better embodiment of the present invention, a kind of power network construction project investment decision method, its root
Establish project warehouse according to data source and divide project library, then set up different type difference voltage class construction project it is comprehensive
Assessment indicator system is closed, further according to the predicted value of each city's construction project investment, respectively to the item in each city's construction project storehouse
Mesh given a mark, sort and decision-making is to obtain the annual investment plan of power network construction project.
With reference to the specific implementation for shown in Fig. 2-Fig. 6, describing the present invention in detail.
With reference to shown in Fig. 1, power network construction project investment decision method of the invention comprises the following steps：
Step A：Establish project warehouse and division project library；
Step B：Establish the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of 220KV and 110KV construction projects；And
Step C：Construction project investment decision system is established, is divided into 6 modules：Database module, capital expenditure prediction
Module, intelligent scoring module, decision-making module, correction verification module and data outputting module.
The specific steps of These steps are illustrated with reference to Fig. 2-Fig. 6.
Step A：Project warehouse and division project library are established, whether is then that emphasis item dividing is attached most importance to according to project
Project and conventional project.Conventional project is divided into following 3 class further according to voltage class, is respectively：Major network project (220KV and with
On), high-voltage distribution network project (110KV and 35KV) and mesolow distribution project (10KV and following).Have for key project exhausted
To priority, scoring and investment priority are not involved in；And to participate in scoring and establishing corresponding index system for conventional project.
It is specific as follows：
To be evaluated all kinds construction project, it is necessary to establish the power network capital construction item of different type difference voltage class
Purpose System of Comprehensive Evaluation.Due to original power network construction project library item mesh numerous types, therefore in step first to item
Mesh is combed, and establishes project warehouse, and its particular flow sheet is as shown in Figure 2.The i.e. annual interim new projects of power network are through saving
After Utilities Electric Co.'s examination ＆ verification approval, it need to judge whether urgently, if not urgent project will pass through feasibility study evaluation and can just call in project deposit
Storehouse, otherwise call in power network project planning storehouse.
Whether it is that emphasis item dividing is emphasis project and conventional project according to project after the foundation of project warehouse.
Key project mainly includes：Summer peak meeting project, normal power supplies and engineering new energy project, regulation for safety project, ferroelectric power supply
Project, agricultural ground threshing supply project, 500KV send out project and other urgent projects etc..Non- key project is further according to voltage class
It is divided into following 3 class, is respectively：Major network project (220KV and more than), high-voltage distribution network project (110KV and 35KV) and mesolow are matched somebody with somebody
Net project (10KV and following).There is absolute priority for key project, be not involved in scoring and investment priority；And for non-
Key project will participate in scoring and establishing corresponding index system.It is specifically classified as follows shown in table 1.
The project warehouse of table 1 is classified
Step B：Establish the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of 220KV and 110KV construction projects, the comprehensive evaluation index body of foundation
System is not only from security reliability, electric network coordination development and the Technical Economy lifting for macroscopically considering power network, and from microcosmic
The upper running status for considering power network is such as：The growth of based model for load duration, weak link is such as：Transformer station overloads, and the attribute of single project is such as：
Voltage class etc..In addition, the qualitative index in System of Comprehensive Evaluation is such as：Solves the problems, such as the project of equipment operation year limit for length
It is less；Remaining indices is quantitative target, directly can be obtained from the report of feasibility of construction project.
The foundation for the System of Comprehensive Evaluation that the present invention establishes is：Management requirement of the State Grid Corporation of China to construction project
And the actual conditions of network operation are saved, its index source is：The major influence factors of construction project construction and each construction project can
Quantizating index in row analysis report.So as to establish a set of effective comprehensive evaluation index body for power network construction project
System.
The System of Comprehensive Evaluation that the present invention establishes is not only from security reliability, the power network association for macroscopically considering power network
The exhibition of readjusting the distribution and Technical Economy lifting, and from the microcosmic upper running status for considering power network such as：The growth of based model for load duration, weak ring
Section is such as：Transformer station overloads, and the attribute of single project is such as：Voltage class etc..In addition, the comprehensive evaluation index body that the present invention establishes
Qualitative index in system is such as：Solve the problems, such as that the project of equipment operation year limit for length is less；Remaining indices is quantitative target, energy
Directly obtained from the report of feasibility of construction project.
The present invention establishes major network and the comprehensive evaluation index of high-voltage distribution network construction project.220KV construction projects develop and
The two-level index of safety and stability evaluation index system is respectively：Security reliability, electric network coordination development and Technical Economy lifting.
Security reliability specifically includes：N-1 percent of pass, 220KV line equivalents Rate of average load, calculation of short-circuit current and solution equipment fortune
Row year limit for length, fault rate is high, influences the project of electricity net safety stable and power supply reliability problem；Electric network coordination development specifically includes
220KV main transformers load factor, load growth predicted value, solve the problems, such as distributed electrical source problem and solve the project of electric network composition；Skill
The lifting of art economy specifically includes：Unit capacity investment and unit line length investment.
110KV construction projects develop and the two-level index of safety and stability evaluation index system is respectively：Security reliability, electricity
Net coordinated development and Technical Economy lifting.Security reliability specifically includes：N-1 percent of pass, 110KV line equivalent average loads
Rate, calculation of short-circuit current and solution equipment operation operation year limit for length, fault rate is high, influences electricity net safety stable and power supply reliability
The project of problem；Electric network coordination development specifically includes：110KV main transformers load factor, load growth desired value, solution electric network composition are asked
Topic and solution transformer station overload, the expansion project that load shifts nearby can not be realized；Technical Economy lifting specifically includes：Unit
Capacity investment and unit line length investment.Its specific System of Comprehensive Evaluation structure is referred to shown in Fig. 3 a-3b.
Step C：Construction project investment decision system is established, is divided into 6 modules：Database module, capital expenditure prediction
Module, intelligent scoring module, decision-making module, correction verification module and data outputting module.
The construction project decision tree that the present invention establishes is to establish the warehouse of project according to data source and divide item first
Mesh storehouse, integrated ordered and intelligence is then carried out according to the assessment indicator system of the different type construction project of foundation and given a mark, then entered
The final investment decision of row and feedback check, finally give the annual capital expenditure proposal of province's net.Its specific decision tree is detailed
See accompanying drawing 1.
According to above-mentioned decision tree, its control flow is divided into 6 modules, including：Database module, capital expenditure
Prediction module, intelligent scoring module, decision-making module, correction verification module and data outputting module.Its control flow chart refers to specification
Shown in accompanying drawing 4.Wherein, database module is the basis of decision tree, is carried for capital expenditure prediction module and intelligent scoring modules
For the attribute and related data of each project.Capital expenditure prediction module and intelligent scoring module are that the premise of project decision is accurate
It is standby, the decision model respectively in decision optimization module provide with funds constraints and marking score value.
Specifically, step C realization includes：
Step C-1：Database module is established, i.e. construction project warehouse forms what needs assessment sorted by conditional filtering
Each city's construction project storehouse of the whole province.
Construction project warehouse forms each city's construction project storehouse of the whole province of needs assessment sequence by conditional filtering.Capital construction item
Mesh forms construction project attribute list and construction project storehouse by related detailed rules and regulations first, wherein the main contents of related detailed rules and regulations are such as
Under：
(1) where project name, affiliated voltage class, item types, project status, entry property, construction unit, project
Ground, Asset Attributes, feasibility study scale (build capacity, line length, have a net increase of capacity)；
(2) general item investment, approval reply time (year, the moon), feasibility study reply time (year, the moon), plan on-stream time
(year, the moon), plan production time (year, the moon), project investment plan (First Year, Second Year, the 3rd year)；
(3) project other information (the affiliated major class of project, the affiliated group of project, service area), whether supporting outlet, whether tear open
Molecular network, summer peak meeting；
(4) whether key project, project number, entry sorting；
(5) other attribute informations of project：Power supply engineering information (whether power supply engineering is checked and approved, whether access system examines,
It is expected that the power grid time), project progress message (completion time of project, from reply to on-stream time), project to be continued information etc..
Then, the judgement further according to condition 1 and condition 2 obtains the construction project in final sequence storehouse and each city of the whole province.
The Rule of judgment 1 for obtaining preparing storehouse by the total storehouse of project is：Rejecting has been criticized and operated project, because these projects need
Direct investment construction, it is not involved in sorting.Prepared storehouse is obtained by screening, the project in preparation storehouse includes：It has been criticized that, do not go into operation item
Mesh；Project is not criticized.By preparation storehouse obtain sort storehouse Rule of judgment 2 be：First to having criticized and non-on-stream item is ranked up；
If in the money, add and do not criticize project and be ranked up.
Step C-2：Establish capital expenditure prediction module.
What investment forecasting module used divides city's component voltage grade forecast thinking, and data source source is：The GDP in each city, sale of electricity
Amount, system adjust load and capital expenditure historical data.Prediction is then checked according to Investment Trend and performance analysis and obtains the whole province's year
Invest gross investment value.The whole province's fund of capital investment is decomposed according still further to different cities, different voltage class, obtains the whole province's difference
City, different voltage class (220KV and 110KV) construction project investment.It predicts that flow chart refers to Figure of description 5.
Step C-3：Establish intelligent scoring module.Qualitative index and quantitative finger are generally comprised in the assessment indicator system of project
Mark, mainly include again in quantitative target：Greatly, minimum and interval type index.For the solution in qualitative index such as major network index
Transformer station's overload in equipment time limit long operational time, high-voltage distribution network etc., it is that then marking is 100 points, is otherwise 60 points.Large
And interval type index is first to be converted into large index, by the fraction section of indices reduction to [60,100], then it is right
Indices carry out unified marking.After what the present invention took is the weight that analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has determined each index, according to power
The score value weighted sum of weight and each index obtains the evaluation total score of the project.
1) desired value pre-processes
Qualitative index and quantitative target are included in the assessment indicator system of project, is mainly included again in quantitative target：Greatly,
Minimum and interval type index.No matter index is quantitative target or qualitative index, the dimension regardless of index, because need to be to each
Item index carries out unified marking, therefore needs in the fraction section of indices reduction to [60,100].For qualitative index
Transformer station's overload in solution equipment time limit long operational time, high-voltage distribution network in such as major network index, it is that then marking is 100
Point, it is otherwise 60 points.For large index, i.e. desired value is bigger, and scoring is higher, by taking N-1 percent of pass as an example.Assuming that somewhere
The N-1 percent of pass of i-th of project of major network is Pi, N-1 percent of pass maximum is R in its all items, minimum value r, the pole
The evaluation score p of large-scale indexi *It is calculated as follows：
For minimal type index, i.e. desired value is smaller, and scoring is higher, by taking calculation of short-circuit current value as an example.Before project appraisal
Divided by different regions and voltage class, therefore the quantitative target can evaluate a certain project to this area's power network
Influence and act on.Assuming that the calculation of short-circuit current value of i-th of project of somewhere major network is xi, its all items short circuit currents
The maximum of calculating is N, minimum value n, and the desired value is converted into large index xi', calculation formula is as follows：
xi'=N-xi (2)
For the large index, its evaluation score xi *Computational methods are as follows：
For interval type index, i.e., desired value is preferably that to fall in the section of some determination be best, with line load
Exemplified by rate.Assuming that the 220kV line equivalents Rate of average load of i-th of project of somewhere major network is qi, the best stabilized of the value
Section is [d, e], and the maximum of 220kV line equivalent Rate of average load is T, minimum value t in its all items, by the index
It is converted into large index qi', calculation formula is as follows：
In formula (4), c=max { d-m, M-e }, M, m are respectively 220KV line equivalent Rate of average load qiIn real system
The maximum and minimum value of middle possible value.The then evaluation score q of the large indexi *Calculation formula it is as follows：
2) present invention uses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) parameter weight
First according to the System of Comprehensive Evaluation that has built up by one-level evaluation index, the two level of different type construction project
Evaluation index and three-level evaluation index by 9 degree (it is extremely important, important, it is important ... it is of equal importance etc.) carry out
It is compared to each other, and result of the comparison is configured to a judgment matrix.Then calculate each judgment matrix Maximum characteristic root and its
Corresponding normalized characteristic vector, the normalized characteristic vector each element are the level each element relative to last layer
The weight of a certain element.It is further comprehensive on this basis, combining weights of each level compositing factor relative to general objective are obtained,
And then draw the weighted value of each evaluation index.
After the weight that each index has been determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), obtained according to the score value weighted sum of weight and each index
To the evaluation total score of the project.
Step C-4：Establish decision-making module.
220KV capital expenditures project and 110KV capital expenditures are decomposed into according to voltage class for conventional construction project storehouse
Project.Investment decision first is carried out to 220KV construction project, then investment decision is carried out to 110KV construction project.In 110KV
Construction project sequence before, 110KV construction projects storehouse need to reject the supporting project of 220KV capital expenditure proposals because its have
There is priority, be not involved in the sequence of 110KV construction projects.Present invention primarily contemplates the certain situation of project year gross investment
Under, project comprehensive benefit highest optimization problem.The mathematical modeling for the construction project investment decision that the present invention establishes is as follows：
Max Z=a1x1+a2x2+……+anxn
s.t. b1x1+b2x2+……+bnxn+S0≤S
In formula：x1, x2..., xnFor the decision variable of 1 to i each investment project, wherein xi0 or 1 is only, that is, eliminates or protects
Stay the project；aiThe score value of i-th of project；biThe investment of i-th of project；Z represents project comprehensive benefit scoring sum；S is item
Purpose gross investment；S0For the gross investment of emphasis project.
When reporting State Grid Corporation of China's construction project warehouse sequence or when power grid enterprises' investment is abundant, a is takeni=yi, yi
For marking of i-th of project according to appraisement system index, i.e., construction project is according to project score value optimizing decision；When power grid enterprises throw
When providing limited in one's ability, a is takeni=yi/biFor marking of i-th of project according to appraisement system index, biFor the investment of i-th of project
Volume；When power grid enterprises are pursued, project score value is maximum, and when investing minimum multiple target, then decision model is：
In formula：M is to retain the project for choosing investment in n project；A0And B0The total of project total score and project is represented respectively
Investment.
In this step, after establishing each city's construction project storehouse of the whole province, according to the predicted value of each city's construction project investment in next year,
Marking sequence and decision-making are carried out to the project in each city's construction project storehouse respectively and is invested with obtaining the year of power network construction project
Plan.Need the project in construction project storehouse being divided into emphasis and supporting project and conventional construction project first；When System Discrimination goes out
When the construction project is emphasis project, then the key project enters priority storehouse.It need not be scored, directly according to operation
It is required that being included in corresponding annual investment plan, and read other attribute informations of the key project.Including the key project
Voltage class, regional information, investment amount and go into operation and investment tactics information.Then city where it, the base of place voltage class
Build in investment and subtract the investment amount of the key project then.
220KV capital expenditures project and 110KV capital expenditures are decomposed into according to voltage class for conventional construction project storehouse
Project.Investment decision first is carried out to 220KV construction project, then investment decision is carried out to 110KV construction project.110KV's
Construction project sequence before, 110KV construction projects storehouse need to reject the supporting project of 220KV capital expenditure proposals because its have it is excellent
First weigh, be not involved in the sequence of 110KV construction projects.Its control flow chart refers to Figure of description 6.
From accompanying drawing 6：During the system decision-making, not only the key project in project library has priority, key project
Supporting project and 220KV annual investment plan in supporting project also there is priority.Therefore 220KV power networks construction project has
There is preferential decision-making power and restrict the decision-making of 110KV power network construction projects simultaneously.
As it was previously stated, in the case that the present invention considers that gross investment is certain in project year, project comprehensive benefit highest
Optimization problem, the mathematical modeling of the construction project investment decision of foundation are as follows：
Max Z=a1x1+a2x2+……+anxn
s.t. b1x1+b2x2+……+bnxn+S0≤S
In formula：x1, x2..., xnFor the decision variable of 1 to i each investment project, wherein xi0 or 1 is only, that is, eliminates or protects
Stay the project；aiThe score value of i-th of project；biThe investment of i-th of project；Z represents project comprehensive benefit scoring sum；S is item
Purpose gross investment；S0For the gross investment of emphasis project.
When reporting State Grid Corporation of China's construction project warehouse sequence or when power grid enterprises' investment is abundant, a is takeni=yi, yi
For marking of i-th of project according to appraisement system index, i.e., construction project is according to project score value optimizing decision；When power grid enterprises throw
When providing limited in one's ability, a is takeni=yi/biFor marking of i-th of project according to appraisement system index, biFor the investment of i-th of project
Volume；When power grid enterprises are pursued, project score value is maximum, and when investing minimum multiple target, then decision model is：
In formula (6)：M is the project that investment is chosen in n project；A0And B0The total of project total score and project is represented respectively
Investment.The optimal result of corresponding decision-making just can be obtained according to different object functions, finally gives annual investment plan.
Step C-5：Establish correction verification module and data outputting module.
After the different object function system decision-makings, the annual investment plan of component voltage grade is obtained, and according to data
Each utility grid development of Ku Zhong the whole provinces, the base of each city's different type difference voltage class is adjusted by the way of close loop negative feedback
The investment of project is built, finally exports 220KV and 110KV construction project annual investment plan.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of power network construction project investment decision method, it is characterised in that project warehouse is established according to data source and divided
Project library, the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of the construction project of different type difference voltage class is then set up, further according to each city's base
The predicted value of project investment volume is built, the project in each city's construction project storehouse is given a mark respectively, sorted and decision-making is to obtain
The annual investment plan of power network construction project, it is as follows that it implements step：
Step A：Establish project warehouse and division project library, and according to project whether be emphasis item dividing be emphasis project and
Conventional project, wherein conventional project are divided into following 3 class further according to voltage class, are respectively：Major network project, i.e. 220KV and more than
Project, high-voltage distribution network project, i.e. 110KV and 35KV projects；And mesolow distribution project, i.e. 10KV and following items, setting
The priority of key project, set for conventional project and participate in scoring and need to establish corresponding index system；Classification is shown in Table 1：
The project warehouse of table 1 is classified
Step B：The System of Comprehensive Evaluation of 220KV and 110KV construction projects is established, i.e., according to State Grid Corporation of China to capital construction
The management requirement of project and the actual conditions of province's network operation establish the System of Comprehensive Evaluation of 220KV and 110KV construction projects,
Its index source is：Quantizating index in the influence factor of construction project construction and each construction project feasibility analysis report；
Step C：Construction project investment decision system is established, is divided into 6 modules：Database module, capital expenditure prediction module,
Intelligent scoring module, decision-making module, correction verification module and data outputting module, wherein：
Step C-1：Establish database module
Construction project warehouse forms each city's construction project storehouse of the whole province of needs assessment sequence by conditional filtering：Construction project is first
First pass through related detailed rules and regulations and form construction project attribute list and construction project storehouse, then reject and criticized and operated project, will criticize
Non- on-stream item is included in sequence storehouse, if in the money consider further that does not criticize project；
Step C-2：Establish capital expenditure prediction module
The data source of capital expenditure prediction module is：GDP, electricity sales amount, the system in each city adjust load and capital expenditure historical data, with
Prediction is checked according to Investment Trend and performance analysis afterwards and obtains the whole province's year investment gross investment value, according still further to different cities, different electricity
Pressure grade the whole province's fund of capital investment is decomposed, obtain difference city of the whole province, different voltage class construction project investment；
Step C-3：Establish intelligent scoring module
Qualitative index and quantitative target are included in the assessment indicator system of project, quantitative target includes very big, minimum and section
Type index：For qualitative index, such as meet to require, then marking is 100 points, is otherwise 60 points；Large and interval type index are equal
It is first to be converted into large index, by the fraction section of indices reduction to [60,100], then indices is united
One marking；After the weight that each index has been determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), according to the score value weighted sum of weight and each index
Obtain the evaluation total score of the project；
Step C-4：Establish decision-making module
220KV capital expenditures project and 110KV capital expenditure projects are decomposed into according to voltage class for conventional construction project storehouse：
Investment decision first is carried out to 220KV construction project, then investment decision is carried out to 110KV construction project；In 110KV capital construction
Before entry sorting, the supporting project of 220KV capital expenditure proposals is first rejected in 110KV construction projects storehouse, because it has preferentially
Power, is not involved in the sequence of 110KV construction projects；
In the case that in project year, gross investment is certain, the mathematical modeling of the construction project investment decision module of foundation is as follows：
Max Z=a1x1+a2x2+……+anxn
s.t.b1x1+b2x2+……+bnxn+S0≤S
In formula：x1, x2..., xnFor the decision variable of 1 to i each investment project, wherein xi0 or 1 is only, that is, eliminating or retain should
Project；aiThe score value of i-th of project；biThe investment of i-th of project；Z represents project comprehensive benefit scoring sum；S is project
Gross investment；S0For the gross investment of emphasis project；
When reporting State Grid Corporation of China's construction project warehouse sequence or when power grid enterprises' investment is abundant, a is takeni=yi, yiFor
Marking of the i project according to appraisement system index, i.e., construction project is according to project score value optimizing decision；When power grid enterprises invest energy
When power is limited, a is takeni=yi/biFor marking of i-th of project according to appraisement system index, biFor the investment of i-th of project；When
Project score value maximum is pursued by power grid enterprises, and when investing minimum multiple target, then decision model is：
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In formula：M is to retain the project for choosing investment in n project；A0And B0The gross investment of project total score and project is represented respectively
Volume；
Step C-5：Establish correction verification module and data outputting module
After the different object function system decision-makings, the annual investment plan of component voltage grade is obtained, and according in database
Each utility grid development of the whole province, the capital construction item of each city's different type difference voltage class is adjusted by the way of close loop negative feedback
Purpose investment, finally export 220KV and 110KV construction project annual investment plan.
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| CN106096843A (en) * | 2016-06-08 | 2016-11-09 | 国网安徽省电力公司检修公司 | A kind of engineering project data processing method and system |
| CN106295876A (en) * | 2016-08-09 | 2017-01-04 | 广西电网有限责任公司百色供电局 | The investment Decision Platform analyzed based on outside management environment and method |
| CN108197733A (en) * | 2017-12-27 | 2018-06-22 | 海南电网有限责任公司 | A kind of distribution network planning project investment optimization method |
| CN109325659B (en) * | 2018-08-20 | 2022-05-24 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司 | Novel method for sequencing investment of power grid construction project |
| CN109003010A (en) * | 2018-10-17 | 2018-12-14 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Evaluation method for investment benefit of power grid project |
| CN109447335A (en) * | 2018-10-22 | 2019-03-08 | 国网经济技术研究院有限公司 | Two-stage decision optimization method and system for power grid project |
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| CN111080075A (en) * | 2019-11-23 | 2020-04-28 | 国网辽宁省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power grid infrastructure project investment effect evaluation method |
| CN111027831A (en) * | 2019-11-28 | 2020-04-17 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Investment decision method and system based on economic evaluation model |
| CN112149976B (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2022-10-21 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司 | Power grid accurate investment project decision method based on artificial intelligence |
| CN112836921A (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2021-05-25 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司 | Data monitoring analysis and optimization method based on power grid micro-data fusion |
| CN113191720A (en) * | 2021-06-01 | 2021-07-30 | 国网辽宁省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | 10kV exploitable project investment decision method based on star classification and quality and efficiency evaluation |
| CN113723869A (en) * | 2021-11-02 | 2021-11-30 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Power grid infrastructure project post-evaluation method, device, equipment and medium |
| CN114493249A (en) * | 2022-01-24 | 2022-05-13 | 河南省宏力工程咨询有限公司 | Road construction full-period management method, system, terminal and storage medium for road engineering supervision |
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