CN109492874A - A kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system - Google Patents
A kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system, scale of investment decision-making module first uses Logistic model of growth to be fitted the relationship of distribution network construction status comprehensive score and accumulative investment, and predict each regional aim year electricity consumption, using the relationship of fitting of a polynomial electricity consumption and accumulative investment, obtain corresponding accumulative investment, then it is configured according to the optimization of region that accumulative investment carries out power distribution network investment, subsequent investment orientation decision-making module is using optimization of region configuration result as distribution investment and recovery, item attribute is carried out according to significance level of each investment project attribute to distribution network construction to distribute rationally, investment items decision module distributes result rationally as attribute investment and recovery using item attribute again, the project optimization model of power distribution network investment is determined according to the comprehensive evaluation result of each investment project, finally carry out Project is preferably.The design not only ensure that globality, harmony and the internetworking of power distribution network investment, but also meet engineering reality.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to distribution network automated fields, and in particular to a kind of decision of three level power distribution network investment decision systems
Method.
Background technique
In recent years, along with the rapid growth of Chinese national economy, whole society's power demand is continuously increased, power grid enterprises
Dynamics of investment also continues to increase, and wherein power distribution network scale of investment increases faster, and power distribution network returns of investment become grid company
Issues that need special attention.However, the generally existing fund unreasonable distribution of Chinese Provincial grid company, prefecture-level grid company at present
The problems such as investment equilibrium is poor, while distribution evaluation and than selecting the specific standard of field shortage, so as to cause power distribution network investor
It is problematic in that determining and investment project arrangement etc..There is very big room for promotion in power distribution network efficiency of investment.One complete
Whole, reasonable power distribution network investment decision system realizes that intensive, lean management is most important for power grid enterprises.
Currently, the research for power distribution network investment decision can substantially be divided into two classes.The first kind be to operation of power networks status and
The Comprehensive Appraisal Study of programme.Comprehensive evaluation theory system is widely studied, that is, passes through each electric network performance of rational evaluation
Influence to grid benefit, the planning of overall merit power grid and operating scheme, to instruct power grid enterprises by evaluation result
Production, investment and planning.The comprehensive evaluation theory being at home and abroad most widely used is analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (Analytic
Hierarchy Process,AHP).The thought of AHP is to decompose challenge by establishing clearly hierarchical structure first,
Secondary introducing measure theory with relative scale by the judgment criteria of people, and is successively established judgment matrix, is then asked by comparison
Solve the weight of judgment matrix, the comprehensive weight of last numerical procedure.But AHP method is when being compared two-by-two, if information is not
Completely, it just will appear and judge uncertain situation, so that solving precision has relatively large deviation.Second class is for certain investment amount
The problem of research of power distribution network Investment Allocation is descended in constraint, is related to multiple-objection optimization.
Summary of the invention
In view of above-mentioned background, the present invention provides globality, harmony and networks that one kind can guarantee power distribution network investment
Property and the decision-making technique for meeting the actual three levels power distribution network investment decision system of engineering.
In order to achieve the above object, technical scheme is as follows:
A kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system, the decision tree includes scale of investment decision model
Block, investment orientation decision-making module and investment items decision module；
The decision-making technique successively the following steps are included:
Step A, the described scale of investment decision-making module is using Logistic model of growth to the synthesis of distribution network construction status
The relationship S of scoring and accumulative investmenti=fi(x) it is fitted, and each regional planning target year electricity consumption is predicted based on past annual data
Measure Li=hi(t), using the relationship L of fitting of a polynomial electricity consumption and accumulative investmenti=gi(x), it and then obtains corresponding accumulative
InvestmentThat is then rigid scale of investment needed for object of planning year carries out the region of power distribution network investment according to accumulative investment
It distributes rationally；
Step B, the described investment orientation decision-making module using optimization of region configuration result as distribution investment and recovery, according to each investment
Significance level of the item attribute in distribution network construction carries out item attribute and distributes rationally；
Step C, the described investment items decision module first distributes result rationally as attribute investment and recovery, basis using item attribute
The comprehensive evaluation result of each investment project determines the project optimization model of power distribution network investment, and then progress project is preferred, obtains
Optimal projects combo is investment decision result.
In step A, the model of optimization of region configuration with each region in the variance of planning year and target scoring nargin and
Minimum objective function, specifically:
In above formula, diFor the gap between the comprehensive score and target value of ith zone distribution network construction status, m is region
Sum, C are accumulative investment total value, are obtained by investment weighted sum over the years, fi(xi) it is ith zone distribution network construction status
Comprehensive score and accumulative investment fitting function, xiFor the accumulative investment of ith zone, c1、c2、c3Respectively urgently
The synthesis of the distribution network construction status of development investment region Ι, Fast Construction investment region Ι Ι, steady development investment region Ι Ι Ι is commented
Subhead scale value.
In step A, the comprehensive score of the distribution network construction status successively the following steps are included:
Step A1, power distribution network investment effect assessment indicator system is established, and each index in system is divided into direct index, is born
Index and appropriate index three classes, wherein the index system includes that power supply quality index, electric network composition index, equipment refer to
Mark, power supply capacity index, intelligent level index and power grid efficiency index；
Step A2, place is standardized to the data of the above three classes index using the linear membership function fitting of trapezoidal profile
Reason, with the degree of membership of each index of determination；
Step A3, angle value is subordinate to according to each index, each regional distribution network is built using weighting interval based AHP
Status carries out overall merit.
The step A2 specifically:
For direct index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For negative index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For appropriate index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
In above formula, rijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index, xijFor the index of i-th of object jth item index
Value, m are evaluation object number, a1、a2The respectively index is subordinate to maximum value, is subordinate to minimum value, and [b, c] is appropriate index
Appropriate section.
The step A3 successively the following steps are included:
Step A31, the importance of certain layer of each evaluation index is compared two-by-two, using interval number a [a-,a+] replace point
Value establishes judgment matrix with the uncertainty and ambiguity of reflected appraisal, wherein a-、a+Value it is true according to reciprocity 1 ﹣, 9 scales
It is fixed；
Step A32, weight λ is assigned to the lower boundary a- of interval number, count and its desired value is taken to obtain weighting interval judgement
Matrix A (aij(λ))n×n, wherein λ ∈ [0,1]；
Step A33, it introduces weighted geometric mean operator to be integrated, is denoted as matrix A (aij)n×n:
Step A34, calculating matrix A (aij)n×nMaximum eigenvalue λmax, its consistency is examined, and use feature vector method
Solve weight vectors W'(w'1,w'2,…,w'n), wherein AW'=λmaxW'；
Step A35, weight vectors W' is normalized, obtains this layer of each evaluation index phase of layer index thereon relatively
To weight；
Step A36, the distribution network construction status comprehensive score in each region is successively calculated upwards according to the following formula
In above formula, SiScore value, r are evaluated for the hundred-mark system of i-th of objectijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index,
wjFor the weight coefficient of jth item index, n is order of matrix number.
In step C, it is described using item attribute distribute rationally result as attribute investment and recovery, according to the synthesis of each investment project
Evaluation result determine power distribution network investment project optimization model successively the following steps are included:
Step C1, investment project is first divided by preferential guarantee project and project to be selected according to item importance, then according to item
Mesh attribute treats option and classifies, and establishes assessment indicator system respectively for each attribute feature and carries out the preferred of similar projects
Sequence, then completes the overall merit of each investment project；
Step C2, comprehensive evaluation result and item attribute based on each investment project are distributed rationally as a result, with each attribute
Lower project construction total benefit is up to target and establishes optimization model:
In above formula, R (pi) it is project piComprehensive grading value, PkFor the project set under kth item attribute, C (pi) it is project
piInvestment, HkIt is constrained for the scale of investment of kth item attribute.
The step B successively the following steps are included:
Step B1, investment project is divided into satisfaction newly-increased load power reguirements, the mating submitting of substation, solution according to attribute
Low-voltage platform area solves " seizing by the throat ", solves equipment heavy duty or overload, eliminates equipment safety hidden danger, reinforces grid structure, transformation
High damage distribution transforming, nine class of intelligent construction, and it is associated with distribution network construction effect assessment index；
It step B2, is to judge square according to building with the gap between the current value of each evaluation index and the target value of planning power grid
Battle array A (aij)n×n, wherein foundation 1 ﹣ of reciprocity, 9 scale,aijFor index i phase
For the significance level value of index j, round () is the function that rounds up, Δ MiFor the current value M of index iiWith its target valueGap percentage；
Step B3, weight w, i.e., the improvement pressing degree of each evaluation index are solved using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
Step B4, it identifies project attribute optimization allocation models:
δ1:δ2:…:δ9=P1:P2:…:P9
In above formula, δkFor the allocation proportion of kth item attribute, HkFor the scale of investment of kth item attribute, CiFor ith zone
Scale of investment, PkFor the significance level of kth item attribute, nkFor the construction quotas collection of kth item Attribute Association, wiFor i-th index
Improve pressing degree.
In step B1, the evaluation index for meeting newly-increased load power reguirements Attribute Association includes medium voltage distribution network N-1
Percent of pass, per family capacity of distribution transform, the mating evaluation index for sending out Attribute Association of the substation includes that medium-voltage line is averagely powered
Radius, medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, the solution low-voltage platform area Attribute Association
Evaluation index is integrated voltage qualification rate, and the evaluation index for solving " seizing by the throat " Attribute Association includes medium voltage distribution network N-1
Percent of pass, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, it is described to solve equipment heavy duty, overload the evaluation index of Attribute Association to include middle pressure
Power distribution network N-1 percent of pass, per family capacity of distribution transform, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, the elimination equipment safety hidden danger attribute
Associated evaluation index includes medium-voltage line cable rate, overhead transmission line insulation rate, the reinforcement rack structure attribute association
Evaluation index include that medium-voltage line is averaged radius of electricity supply, medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, middle pressure basic routing line contact rate, institute
The evaluation index of the high damage distribution transforming Attribute Association of transformation is stated as high damage distribution transforming accounting, the evaluation of the intelligent construction Attribute Association refers to
Mark includes power distribution automation coverage rate, intelligent electric meter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability.
In step A1, the power supply quality index includes power supply reliability, integrated voltage qualification rate, and the electric network composition refers to
Mark passes through including 110kV route N-1 percent of pass, 110kV power transformation N-1 percent of pass, 35kV route N-1 percent of pass, 35kV power transformation N-1
Rate, 10kV are averaged radius of electricity supply, 10kV power distribution network N-1 percent of pass, 10kV basic routing line interconnection rate, the equipment index packet
Include that overhead transmission line insulation rate, 10kV line cord rate, capacity of distribution transform, high damage distribution transforming accounting, the power supply capacity refer to per family
Mark includes 110kV capacity-load ratio, 35kV capacity-load ratio, distribution line Rate of average load, the intelligent level index include distribution from
Dynamicization coverage rate, intelligent electric meter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability, the power grid efficiency index include input index, synthesis
Line loss per unit.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the benefit that
1, decision tree includes scale of investment in a kind of decision-making technique of three level power distribution network investment decision systems of the present invention
Decision-making module, investment orientation decision-making module and investment items decision module, three layers of decision are all linked with one another, and step by step advance both existed
Meet the growth requirement of each region electricity consumption, operating index and economic benefit in macroscopic aspect, and refine to the excellent of detailed programs
Choosing combination, ensure that globality, harmony and the internetworking of power distribution network investment, helps to realize accurate investment, meanwhile, investment rule
Mould decision-making module is described the improvement degree of index value in power distribution network investment construction using Logistic model of growth,
Logistic model of growth is derived from description biotic population increasing law, i.e., there is always on one for the growth of population in certain environment
Limit, after the quantity of population rises to close to upper limit value, real growth rate will be reduced, and meet engineering reality.Therefore, of the invention
It not only ensure that globality, harmony and the internetworking of power distribution network investment, but also meet engineering reality.
2, in a kind of decision-making technique of three level power distribution network investment decision systems of the present invention scale of investment decision-making module with each
The model of optimization of region configuration is established in region in the variance and minimum objective function of planning year and target scoring nargin, is realized
Each regional distribution network balanced development under limited fund, the close planning power grid of maximum possible.Therefore, the present invention is realized limited
Each regional distribution network balanced development under fund.
3, in a kind of decision-making technique of three level power distribution network investment decision systems of the present invention distribution network construction status synthesis
Scoring includes first establishing power distribution network investment effect assessment indicator system, then be fitted to above using the linear membership function of trapezoidal profile
The data of three classes index are standardized, and are then subordinate to angle value according to each index, using weighting interval based AHP
Overall merit is carried out to each regional distribution network construction situation, the design is by establishing regional distribution network Effect on construction evaluation index body
System, and propose weighting interval based AHP, efficiently solve the subjective ambiguity of Appraising subject and evaluation pair in Practical Project
The objective uncertainty of elephant.Therefore, the present invention solves the subjective ambiguity of Appraising subject and evaluation object in Practical Project
Objective uncertainty.
4, in a kind of decision-making technique of three level power distribution network investment decision systems of the present invention investment items decision module true
Classified according to project significance level and attribute to investment project during the project optimization model for determining power distribution network investment, and
Establish index system respectively for different attributes, carried out under the attribute it is integrated ordered preferably, this point of significance level preferably,
Dividing the project decision of attribute evaluation sequence has good precision and practicability.Therefore, the present invention has good precision
And practicability.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the invention.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the specific embodiments.
Referring to Fig. 1, a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system, the decision tree includes investment rule
Mould decision-making module, investment orientation decision-making module and investment items decision module；
The decision-making technique successively the following steps are included:
Step A, the described scale of investment decision-making module is using Logistic model of growth to the synthesis of distribution network construction status
The relationship S of scoring and accumulative investmenti=fi(x) it is fitted, and each regional planning target year electricity consumption is predicted based on past annual data
Measure Li=hi(t), using the relationship L of fitting of a polynomial electricity consumption and accumulative investmenti=gi(x), it and then obtains corresponding accumulative
InvestmentThat is then rigid scale of investment needed for object of planning year carries out the region of power distribution network investment according to accumulative investment
It distributes rationally；
Step B, the described investment orientation decision-making module using optimization of region configuration result as distribution investment and recovery, according to each investment
Significance level of the item attribute in distribution network construction carries out item attribute and distributes rationally；
Step C, the described investment items decision module first distributes result rationally as attribute investment and recovery, basis using item attribute
The comprehensive evaluation result of each investment project determines the project optimization model of power distribution network investment, and then progress project is preferred, obtains
Optimal projects combo is investment decision result.
In step A, the model of optimization of region configuration with each region in the variance of planning year and target scoring nargin and
Minimum objective function, specifically:
In above formula, diFor the gap between the comprehensive score and target value of ith zone distribution network construction status, m is region
Sum, C are accumulative investment total value, are obtained by investment weighted sum over the years, fi(xi) it is ith zone distribution network construction status
Comprehensive score and accumulative investment fitting function, xiFor the accumulative investment of ith zone, c1、c2、c3Respectively urgently
The synthesis of the distribution network construction status of development investment region Ι, Fast Construction investment region Ι Ι, steady development investment region Ι Ι Ι is commented
Subhead scale value.
In step A, the comprehensive score of the distribution network construction status successively the following steps are included:
Step A1, power distribution network investment effect assessment indicator system is established, and each index in system is divided into direct index, is born
Index and appropriate index three classes, wherein the index system includes that power supply quality index, electric network composition index, equipment refer to
Mark, power supply capacity index, intelligent level index and power grid efficiency index；
Step A2, place is standardized to the data of the above three classes index using the linear membership function fitting of trapezoidal profile
Reason, with the degree of membership of each index of determination；
Step A3, angle value is subordinate to according to each index, each regional distribution network is built using weighting interval based AHP
Status carries out overall merit.
The step A2 specifically:
For direct index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For negative index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For appropriate index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
In above formula, rijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index, xijFor the index of i-th of object jth item index
Value, m are evaluation object number, a1、a2The respectively index is subordinate to maximum value, is subordinate to minimum value, and [b, c] is appropriate index
Appropriate section.
The step A3 successively the following steps are included:
Step A31, the importance of certain layer of each evaluation index is compared two-by-two, using interval number a [a-,a+] replace point
Value establishes judgment matrix with the uncertainty and ambiguity of reflected appraisal, wherein a-、a+Value it is true according to reciprocity 1 ﹣, 9 scales
It is fixed；
Step A32, to the lower boundary a of interval number-Weight λ is assigned, count and its desired value is taken to obtain weighting interval judgement
Matrix A (aij(λ))n×n, wherein λ ∈ [0,1]；
Step A33, it introduces weighted geometric mean operator to be integrated, is denoted as matrix A (aij)n×n:
Step A34, calculating matrix A (aij)n×nMaximum eigenvalue λmax, its consistency is examined, and use feature vector method
Solve weight vectors W'(w'1,w'2,…,w'n), wherein AW'=λmaxW'；
Step A35, weight vectors W' is normalized, obtains this layer of each evaluation index phase of layer index thereon relatively
To weight；
Step A36, the distribution network construction status comprehensive score in each region is successively calculated upwards according to the following formula
In above formula, SiScore value, r are evaluated for the hundred-mark system of i-th of objectijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index,
wjFor the weight coefficient of jth item index, n is order of matrix number.
In step C, it is described using item attribute distribute rationally result as attribute investment and recovery, according to the synthesis of each investment project
Evaluation result determine power distribution network investment project optimization model successively the following steps are included:
Step C1, investment project is first divided by preferential guarantee project and project to be selected according to item importance, then according to item
Mesh attribute treats option and classifies, and establishes assessment indicator system respectively for each attribute feature and carries out the preferred of similar projects
Sequence, then completes the overall merit of each investment project；
Step C2, comprehensive evaluation result and item attribute based on each investment project are distributed rationally as a result, with each attribute
Lower project construction total benefit is up to target and establishes optimization model:
In above formula, R (pi) it is project piComprehensive grading value, PkFor the project set under kth item attribute, C (pi) it is project
piInvestment, HkIt is constrained for the scale of investment of kth item attribute.
The step B successively the following steps are included:
Step B1, investment project is divided into satisfaction newly-increased load power reguirements, the mating submitting of substation, solution according to attribute
Low-voltage platform area solves " seizing by the throat ", solves equipment heavy duty or overload, eliminates equipment safety hidden danger, reinforces grid structure, transformation
High damage distribution transforming, nine class of intelligent construction, and it is associated with distribution network construction effect assessment index；
It step B2, is to judge square according to building with the gap between the current value of each evaluation index and the target value of planning power grid
Battle array A (aij)n×n, wherein foundation 1 ﹣ of reciprocity, 9 scale,aijFor index i phase
For the significance level value of index j, round () is the function that rounds up, Δ MiFor the current value M of index iiWith its target valueGap percentage；
Step B3, weight w, i.e., the improvement pressing degree of each evaluation index are solved using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
Step B4, it identifies project attribute optimization allocation models:
δ1:δ2:…:δ9=P1:P2:…:P9
In above formula, δkFor the allocation proportion of kth item attribute, HkFor the scale of investment of kth item attribute, CiFor ith zone
Scale of investment, PkFor the significance level of kth item attribute, nkFor the construction quotas collection of kth item Attribute Association, wiFor i-th index
Improve pressing degree.
In step B1, the evaluation index for meeting newly-increased load power reguirements Attribute Association includes medium voltage distribution network N-1
Percent of pass, per family capacity of distribution transform, the mating evaluation index for sending out Attribute Association of the substation includes that medium-voltage line is averagely powered
Radius, medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, the solution low-voltage platform area Attribute Association
Evaluation index is integrated voltage qualification rate, and the evaluation index for solving " seizing by the throat " Attribute Association includes medium voltage distribution network N-1
Percent of pass, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, it is described to solve equipment heavy duty, overload the evaluation index of Attribute Association to include middle pressure
Power distribution network N-1 percent of pass, per family capacity of distribution transform, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, the elimination equipment safety hidden danger attribute
Associated evaluation index includes medium-voltage line cable rate, overhead transmission line insulation rate, the reinforcement rack structure attribute association
Evaluation index include that medium-voltage line is averaged radius of electricity supply, medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, middle pressure basic routing line contact rate, institute
The evaluation index of the high damage distribution transforming Attribute Association of transformation is stated as high damage distribution transforming accounting, the evaluation of the intelligent construction Attribute Association refers to
Mark includes power distribution automation coverage rate, intelligent electric meter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability.
In step A1, the power supply quality index includes power supply reliability, integrated voltage qualification rate, and the electric network composition refers to
Mark passes through including 110kV route N-1 percent of pass, 110kV power transformation N-1 percent of pass, 35kV route N-1 percent of pass, 35kV power transformation N-1
Rate, 10kV are averaged radius of electricity supply, 10kV power distribution network N-1 percent of pass, 10kV basic routing line interconnection rate, the equipment index packet
Include that overhead transmission line insulation rate, 10kV line cord rate, capacity of distribution transform, high damage distribution transforming accounting, the power supply capacity refer to per family
Mark includes 110kV capacity-load ratio, 35kV capacity-load ratio, distribution line Rate of average load, the intelligent level index include distribution from
Dynamicization coverage rate, intelligent electric meter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability, the power grid efficiency index include input index, synthesis
Line loss per unit.
Each module declaration is as follows in the present invention:
Scale of investment decision-making module: for determining gross investment, province net company needs to carry out investment to each districts and cities
Distribution.This module comprehensively considers the factors such as its grid structure, effectiveness of operation, builds on the basis of meeting the power demand of prefectures and cities
It has found a set of index system that is scientific, simplifying and comprehensive evaluation analysis is carried out to distribution network construction situation, be that follow-up investment decision is excellent
Chemical industry lays the foundation, while realizing the grid structure balanced development of each regional distribution network, and excitation effectiveness of operation increases.
Investment orientation decision-making module: how the investment distributed for certain region selects most urgent, the maximum throwing of benefit
Capital is to most important.This module determines projects attribute to this by analyzing regional power grid status and the object of planning
The importance of regional distribution network construction, so that it is determined that each attribute investment is to guarantee the maximization of efficiency of investment.Wherein, by right
Projects are classified according to its attribute, and determine each attribute to the distribution according to the gap of every attribute status and the object of planning
The importance for netting construction, can match resource input to guarantee efficiency more with high investment.
Investment items decision module: this module is directed to the investment project that prefectures and cities report, and carries out to it according to item attribute
Classification carries out sorting and comprehensive for similar projects, and the investment project obtained in the case where the attribute investment constrains preferably combines,
To ensure higher investment precision.
Weighted geometric mean operator: in step A33, meter can be simplified by introducing weighted geometric mean operator and integrate
It calculates.
Importance of attribute degree: for a certain attribute, associated by index it is more, the improvement pressing degree of index is bigger,
Then this attribute is higher to the significance level of distribution network construction.
Embodiment 1:
Referring to Fig. 1, a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system, the decision tree includes investment rule
Mould decision-making module, investment orientation decision-making module and investment items decision module；
The decision-making technique saves 11 prefecture-level companies to certain according to 2014 to 2017 State Grid Corporation of China's power distribution networks
The data and year-end summary statistical data that operation data is investigated set 2018 annual province's power distribution networks as basic data
Gross investment is 18,000,000,000 yuan, and statistics and software for calculation are MATLAB, SPSS, is successively followed the steps below:
Step 1 establishes power distribution network investment effect assessment indicator system, and each index in system is divided into direct index, is born
Index and appropriate index three classes, wherein the index system includes that power supply quality index, electric network composition index, equipment refer to
Mark, power supply capacity index, intelligent level index and power grid efficiency index, the power supply quality index include power supply reliability,
Integrated voltage qualification rate, the electric network composition index include 110kV route N-1 percent of pass, 110kV power transformation N-1 percent of pass, 35kV
Route N-1 percent of pass, 35kV power transformation N-1 percent of pass, 10kV are averaged radius of electricity supply, 10kV power distribution network N-1 percent of pass, 10kV trunk
Route interconnection rate, the equipment index include overhead transmission line insulation rate, 10kV line cord rate, per family with transfiguration
Amount, high damage distribution transforming accounting, the power supply capacity index includes 110kV capacity-load ratio, 35kV capacity-load ratio, distribution line average load
Rate, the intelligent level index include power distribution automation coverage rate, intelligent electric meter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability, institute
Stating power grid efficiency index includes input index, comprehensive line loss per unit；
Step 2 is standardized the data of the above three classes index using the linear membership function fitting of trapezoidal profile,
With the degree of membership of each index of determination, wherein
For direct index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For negative index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For appropriate index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
In above formula, rijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index, xijFor the index of i-th of object jth item index
Value, m are evaluation object number, a1、a2The respectively index is subordinate to maximum value, is subordinate to minimum value, and [b, c] is appropriate index
Appropriate section；
Step 3 is subordinate to angle value according to each index, is built using weighting interval based AHP to each regional distribution network existing
Shape carries out overall merit, specifically:
Step 3-1, the importance of certain layer of each evaluation index is compared two-by-two, using interval number a [a-,a+] replace point
Value establishes judgment matrix with the uncertainty and ambiguity of reflected appraisal, wherein a-、a+Value it is true according to reciprocity 1 ﹣, 9 scales
It is fixed；
Step 3-2, weight λ is assigned to the lower boundary a- of interval number, count and its desired value is taken to obtain weighting interval judgement
Matrix A (aij(λ))n×n, wherein λ ∈ [0,1]；
Step 3-3, it introduces weighted geometric mean operator to be integrated, is denoted as matrix A (aij)n×n:
Wherein, the matrix of rule layer index are as follows:
Step 3-4, calculating matrix A (aij)n×nMaximum eigenvalue λmax, its consistency is examined, and use feature vector method
Solve weight vectors W'(w'1,w'2,…,w'n), wherein AW'=λmaxThe weight of W', rule layer index are as shown in table 1:
1 rule layer index weights of table
Step 3-5, weight vectors W' is normalized, obtains this layer of each evaluation index phase of layer index thereon relatively
To weight；
Step 3-6, the distribution network construction status comprehensive score in each region, knot is successively calculated upwards according to the following formula
Fruit is shown in Table 2:
In above formula, SiScore value, r are evaluated for the hundred-mark system of i-th of objectijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index,
wjFor the weight coefficient of jth item index, n is order of matrix number；
Each city of table 2 Effect on construction comprehensive evaluation result over the years
Step 4, the scale of investment decision-making module are using Logistic model of growth to the synthesis of distribution network construction status
The relationship S of scoring and accumulative investmenti=fi(x) it is fitted, and each regional planning electricity consumption in 2018 is predicted based on past annual data
Measure Li=hi(t), using the relationship L of fitting of a polynomial electricity consumption and accumulative investmenti=gi(x), it and then obtains corresponding accumulative
InvestmentRigid scale of investment (referring to table 3) needed for i.e. 2018 is then based on the economic speedup, over the years of the prefectures and cities, province
Investment effect comprehensive score and its development trend, JZ, JM, HG, ES are that urgently development zone I, YC, XY, XG, XN, ES are fast run-up
If area II, WH, EZ are steady development area III, and planning year comprehensive score target value is respectively 70,80,90, are being planned with each region
Year with target scoring nargin variance and minimum objective function establish optimization of region configure model, according to accumulative investment into
The optimization of region configuration of row power distribution network investment, obtains the preliminary Investment Allocation scale in each region, wherein optimization of region configuration
Model are as follows:
In above formula, diFor the gap between the comprehensive score and target value of ith zone distribution network construction status, m is region
Sum, C are accumulative investment total value, are obtained by investment weighted sum over the years, fi(xi) it is ith zone distribution network construction status
Comprehensive score and accumulative investment fitting function, xiFor the accumulative investment of ith zone, c1、c2、c3Respectively urgently
The synthesis of the distribution network construction status of development investment region Ι, Fast Construction investment region Ι Ι, steady development investment region Ι Ι Ι is commented
Subhead scale value；
3 power distribution network Regional Investment scale of table distributes (hundred million yuan)
Investment project is divided into satisfaction newly-increased load power reguirements, the mating submitting of substation, solution according to attribute by step 5
Low-voltage platform area solves " seizing by the throat ", solves equipment heavy duty or overload, eliminates equipment safety hidden danger, reinforces grid structure, transformation
High damage distribution transforming, nine class of intelligent construction, and it is associated with distribution network construction effect assessment index, wherein the satisfaction
The evaluation index of newly-increased load power reguirements Attribute Association includes medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, per family capacity of distribution transform, the change
Power station it is mating send out Attribute Association evaluation index include medium-voltage line be averaged radius of electricity supply, medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, in
It is press-fitted electric line Rate of average load, the evaluation index for solving low-voltage platform area Attribute Association is integrated voltage qualification rate, institute
Stating " the seize by the throat " evaluation index of Attribute Association of solution includes medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, medium-voltage distribution circuit average load
Rate, the evaluation index for solving equipment heavy duty, overloading Attribute Association includes medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, per family with transfiguration
Amount, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, the evaluation index for eliminating equipment safety hidden danger Attribute Association includes medium-voltage line
Cable rate, overhead transmission line insulation rate, the associated evaluation index of the reinforcement rack structure attribute include that medium-voltage line is average
Radius of electricity supply, medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, middle pressure basic routing line contact rate, the high damage distribution transforming Attribute Association of transformation are commented
Valence index is high damage distribution transforming accounting, and the evaluation index of the intelligent construction Attribute Association includes power distribution automation coverage rate, intelligence
It can ammeter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability；
Step 6 is that foundation building judges square with the gap between the current value of each evaluation index and the target value of planning power grid
Battle array A (aij)n×n, wherein foundation 1 ﹣ of reciprocity, 9 scale,aijFor index i phase
For the significance level value of index j, round () is the function that rounds up, Δ MiFor the current value M of index iiWith its target valueGap percentage；
Step 7 solves weight w, i.e., the improvement pressing degree of each evaluation index, wherein the city EZ matches using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Power grid coupling index value and index weights are as shown in table 4:
4 city EZ power distribution network coupling index value of table and index weights
Step 8, attribute optimization allocation models of identifying project:
δ1:δ2:…:δ9=P1:P2:…:P9
In above formula, δkFor the allocation proportion of kth item attribute, HkFor the scale of investment of kth item attribute, CiFor ith zone
Scale of investment, PkFor the significance level of kth item attribute, nkFor the construction quotas collection of kth item Attribute Association, wiFor i-th index
Improve pressing degree；
As shown in Table 4, the city EZ power distribution network scale of investment is 3.54 hundred million yuan, then projects Importance of attribute degree and Investment Allocation
The results are shown in Table 5.
The every Importance of attribute degree of table 5 and its Investment Allocation result
Investment project is divided into preferential guarantee project and project to be selected according to item importance by step 9, elder generation, then according to project
Attribute treats option and classifies, and establishes the preferred row that assessment indicator system carries out similar projects respectively for each attribute feature
Then sequence completes the overall merit of each investment project, wherein " reinforce grid structure class " project that the city EZ reports for 2018 totally 8
A, gross investment budgetary estimate is 92,000,000 yuan.The Output Ratio of the generic attribute is as shown in table 6, which is
66270000 yuan, it is as shown in table 7 that projects evaluate data:
Table 6 " reinforcing grid structure class " synthetic evaluation of projects index system
7 city EZ of table " reinforcing grid structure class " project appraisal
Step 10, the comprehensive evaluation result based on each investment project and item attribute are distributed rationally as a result, with each attribute
Lower project construction total benefit is up to target and establishes optimization model, and the Optimal Investment group of the city EZ construction project in 2018 can be obtained
It closes:
In above formula, R (pi) it is project piComprehensive grading value, PkFor the project set under kth item attribute, C (pi) it is project
piInvestment, HkIt is constrained for the scale of investment of kth item attribute.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of decision-making technique of three level power distribution network investment decision systems, it is characterised in that:
The decision tree includes scale of investment decision-making module, investment orientation decision-making module and investment items decision module；
The decision-making technique successively the following steps are included:
Step A, the described scale of investment decision-making module is using Logistic model of growth to the comprehensive score of distribution network construction status
With the relationship S of accumulative investmenti=fi(x) it is fitted, and each regional planning target year electricity consumption L is predicted based on past annual datai
=hi(t), using the relationship L of fitting of a polynomial electricity consumption and accumulative investmenti=gi(x), and then corresponding accumulative investment is obtained
VolumeThat is then rigid scale of investment needed for object of planning year carries out the optimization of region of power distribution network investment according to accumulative investment
Configuration；
Step B, the described investment orientation decision-making module using optimization of region configuration result as distribution investment and recovery, according to each investment project
Significance level of the attribute in distribution network construction carries out item attribute and distributes rationally；
Step C, the investment items decision module first using item attribute distribute rationally result as attribute investment and recovery, according to each throwing
The comprehensive evaluation result of money project determines the project optimization model of power distribution network investment, and then progress project is preferred, and what is obtained is optimal
Projects combo is investment decision result.
2. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
In step A, the model of the optimization of region configuration is with each region in score in planning year and the target variance and minimum of nargin
For objective function, specifically:
In above formula, diFor the gap between the comprehensive score and target value of ith zone distribution network construction status, m is region sum, C
For accumulative investment total value, obtained by investment weighted sum over the years, fi(xi) be ith zone distribution network construction status synthesis
The fitting function of scoring and accumulative investment, xiFor the accumulative investment of ith zone, c1、c2、c3Respectively urgently development is thrown
Provide the comprehensive score target of the distribution network construction status of region Ι, Fast Construction investment region Ι Ι, steady development investment region Ι Ι Ι
Value.
3. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 1 or 2, feature exist
In:
In step A, the comprehensive score of the distribution network construction status successively the following steps are included:
Step A1, power distribution network investment effect assessment indicator system is established, and each index in system is divided into direct index, negative index
With appropriate index three classes, wherein the index system includes power supply quality index, electric network composition index, equipment index, supplies
Electric capacity index, intelligent level index and power grid efficiency index；
Step A2, the data of the above three classes index are standardized using the linear membership function fitting of trapezoidal profile, with
Determine the degree of membership of each index；
Step A3, angle value is subordinate to according to each index, using weighting interval based AHP to each regional distribution network construction situation
Carry out overall merit.
4. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 3, it is characterised in that:
The step A2 specifically:
For direct index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For negative index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
For appropriate index, it is standardized according to the following formula:
In above formula, rijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index, xijFor the index value of i-th of object jth item index, m is
Evaluation object number, a1、a2The respectively index is subordinate to maximum value, is subordinate to minimum value, and [b, c] is the appropriate area of appropriate index
Between.
5. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 3, it is characterised in that:
The step A3 successively the following steps are included:
Step A31, the importance of certain layer of each evaluation index is compared two-by-two, using interval number a [a-, a+] built instead of point value
Judgment matrix is found with the uncertainty and ambiguity of reflected appraisal, wherein the value of a-, a+ are determined according to 1 ﹣ of reciprocity, 9 scale；
Step A32, weight λ is assigned to the lower boundary a- of interval number, count and its desired value is taken to obtain weighting Interval Judgment Matrix A
(aij(λ))n×n, wherein λ ∈ [0,1]；
Step A33, it introduces weighted geometric mean operator to be integrated, is denoted as matrix A (aij)n×n:
Step A34, calculating matrix A (aij)n×nMaximum eigenvalue λmax, its consistency is examined, and solve using feature vector method
Weight vectors W'(w'1,w'2,…,w'n), wherein AW'=λmaxW'；
Step A35, weight vectors W' is normalized, obtaining this layer of each evaluation index, the opposite of layer index is weighed thereon relatively
Weight；
Step A36, the distribution network construction status comprehensive score in each region is successively calculated upwards according to the following formula
In above formula, SiScore value, r are evaluated for the hundred-mark system of i-th of objectijFor the degree of membership of i-th of object jth item index, wjIt is
The weight coefficient of j indexs, n are order of matrix number.
6. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 1 or 2, feature exist
In:
In step C, it is described using item attribute distribute rationally result as attribute investment and recovery, according to the overall merit of each investment project
As a result determine power distribution network investment project optimization model successively the following steps are included:
Step C1, investment project is first divided by preferential guarantee project and project to be selected according to item importance, then according to project category
Property treat option and classify, establish the preferred row that assessment indicator system carries out similar projects respectively for each attribute feature
Then sequence completes the overall merit of each investment project；
Step C2, comprehensive evaluation result and item attribute based on each investment project are distributed rationally as a result, with item under each attribute
Mesh construction total benefit is up to target and establishes optimization model:
In above formula, R (pi) it is project piComprehensive grading value, PkFor the project set under kth item attribute, C (pi) it is project pi's
Investment, HkIt is constrained for the scale of investment of kth item attribute.
7. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 1 or 2, feature exist
In:
The step B successively the following steps are included:
Step B1, investment project is divided into the newly-increased load power reguirements of satisfaction according to attribute, the mating submitting of substation, solves low electricity
Present a theatrical performance as the last item on a programme area, solve " seizing by the throat ", solve equipment heavy duty or overload, eliminate equipment safety hidden danger, reinforce grid structure, the high damage of transformation
Distribution transforming, nine class of intelligent construction, and it is associated with distribution network construction effect assessment index；
It step B2, is according to development of judgment matrix A with the gap between the current value of each evaluation index and the target value of planning power grid
(aij)n×n, wherein foundation 1 ﹣ of reciprocity, 9 scale,aijFor index i relative to
The significance level value of index j, round () are the function that rounds up, Δ MiFor the current value M of index iiWith its target value
Gap percentage；
Step B3, weight w, i.e., the improvement pressing degree of each evaluation index are solved using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)；
Step B4, it identifies project attribute optimization allocation models:
δ1:δ2:…:δ9=P1:P2:…:P9
In above formula, δkFor the allocation proportion of kth item attribute, HkFor the scale of investment of kth item attribute, CiFor the investment of ith zone
Scale, PkFor the significance level of kth item attribute, nkFor the construction quotas collection of kth item Attribute Association, wiFor the improvement of i-th index
Pressing degree.
8. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 7, it is characterised in that:
In step B1, the evaluation index for meeting newly-increased load power reguirements Attribute Association includes that medium voltage distribution network N-1 passes through
Rate, per family capacity of distribution transform, the mating evaluation index for sending out Attribute Association of the substation include medium-voltage line be averaged radius of electricity supply,
Medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, the evaluation for solving low-voltage platform area Attribute Association refer to
Be designated as integrated voltage qualification rate, the evaluation index for solving " seizing by the throat " Attribute Association include medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass,
Medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, it is described to solve equipment heavy duty, overload the evaluation index of Attribute Association to include medium voltage distribution network
N-1 percent of pass, per family capacity of distribution transform, medium-voltage distribution circuit Rate of average load, the elimination equipment safety hidden danger Attribute Association
Evaluation index includes medium-voltage line cable rate, overhead transmission line insulation rate, the associated evaluation of the reinforcement rack structure attribute
Index includes that medium-voltage line is averaged radius of electricity supply, medium voltage distribution network N-1 percent of pass, middle pressure basic routing line contact rate, the transformation
The evaluation index of high damage distribution transforming Attribute Association is high damage distribution transforming accounting, and the evaluation index of the intelligent construction Attribute Association includes
Power distribution automation coverage rate, intelligent electric meter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability.
9. a kind of decision-making technique of three levels power distribution network investment decision system according to claim 3, it is characterised in that:
In step A1, the power supply quality index includes power supply reliability, integrated voltage qualification rate, the electric network composition index packet
Include 110kV route N-1 percent of pass, 110kV power transformation N-1 percent of pass, 35kV route N-1 percent of pass, 35kV power transformation N-1 percent of pass,
10kV is averaged radius of electricity supply, 10kV power distribution network N-1 percent of pass, 10kV basic routing line interconnection rate, and the equipment index includes
Overhead transmission line insulation rate, 10kV line cord rate, per family capacity of distribution transform, high damage distribution transforming accounting, the power supply capacity index
Including 110kV capacity-load ratio, 35kV capacity-load ratio, distribution line Rate of average load, the intelligent level index includes that distribution is automatic
Change coverage rate, intelligent electric meter coverage rate, distributed generation resource permeability, the power grid efficiency index includes input index, comprehensive line
Loss rate.
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| CN117913800A (en) * | 2023-12-29 | 2024-04-19 | 国网宁夏电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power distribution network construction planning method and system |
| CN118037072A (en) * | 2024-02-20 | 2024-05-14 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司泰州供电分公司 | Method for evaluating problem severity of current distribution network and optimizing and delivering project |
| CN117892928A (en) * | 2024-03-18 | 2024-04-16 | 安徽建筑大学 | Rural highway technical condition assessment system and method |
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