CN103679283A - New district electric power load prediction method for top design mode - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a new district electric power load prediction method for a top design mode. For a newly developed district, due to a lack of historical data, usually prediction can only be carried out by use of a load density method or a load index method, which representing great difficulty in predicting the electric power load of the new district. The technical scheme adopted in the invention comprises the following steps: performing cooperation presetting on the electric power load of an upper-level district where the new district is located to give a predicted value, and dividing a whole region into the new district and an old district according to development situations; using the load intensity method or the load index method to calculate a lower limit and an upper limit of the electric power load of the new district; according to load historical data, predicting the load of the old district; according to a region load prediction value and an old district load prediction value, calculating the new district load; and if multiple districts exist in the whole region, distributing a load to each district according to weight proportions. The method can well overcome the uncertainties in predicting the new district load by use of a conventional method, and improves the credibility of new district load prediction.

Description

A kind of Forecasting Methodology for Top-layer Design Method pattern Xia new district electric load

Technical field

The present invention relates to the Forecasting Methodology of new district electric load, especially a kind of Forecasting Methodology for Top-layer Design Method pattern Xia new district electric load.

Background technology

In Electric Power Network Planning, conventional Methods of electric load forecasting has timing method, output value unit consumption method, elastic coefficient method, expert decision-making, artificial intelligence approach etc. at present.These Forecasting Methodologies are all based on the historical data of electric load in planning region, the rule of development of looking for it, from the close-by examples to those far off infer planning region near, in, load at a specified future date.To new developing region, because it lacks historical data, conventionally can only adopt load density method or load index method to predict; These two kinds of methods are all that the load index with reference to similar electric load is estimated, even but close electric load still exists larger difference that (such as being all residential quarter, the dive load density target of unit floor area of building of community, the village of Huzhou is 11W/m ², and be 16W/m with the glad home of regional U.S. ², sanitary city, Bei Jingliang township is 35W/m ²), this makes the load forecast difficulty in new district larger.And China still locates the mid-term of urbanization accelerated development, all may there is one or more new district in a common large region.

Summary of the invention

Technical matters to be solved by this invention is the uncertainty that overcomes above-mentioned existing new district load forecast, provide a kind of based on Top-layer Design Method pattern Xia new district Methods of electric load forecasting, the present invention utilizes the relatively regular of region electric load development, development from the angle grasp macroscopical new district electric load of " Top-layer Design Method ", makes the prediction of new district electric load more accurate.

For this reason, the present invention adopts following technical scheme: a kind of Forecasting Methodology for Top-layer Design Method pattern Xia new district electric load, and its step is as follows:

1) parallel region, place, electric power new district and higher level region are divided: the higher level region in new district is region II a, and the region at the same level in new district is region III 1, region III 2 ... region III n, is referred to as old liberated area; The region at the same level of region II a is region II b ... region II n, the higher level region in these regions is region I;

2) to the default high, normal, basic scheme F of cooperative load forecasting that provides of higher level region, place, new district II a _aH, F _aMand F _aL, these schemes are according to the load prediction situation in region II a and parallel region thereof, and in conjunction with the comprehensive Analysis deterrmination of load development of whole region I, as the important evidence of region II a load prediction;

3) electric load in old liberated area within the scope of estimation range II a, adopts the conventional Forecasting Methodology based on historical data, after comprehensive analysis, obtains high scheme F _oH, middle scheme F _oMwith low scheme F _oL;

4) by the electric load of region II a and within the scope of it electric load in old liberated area calculate the electric load in new district, the high, normal, basic load prediction scheme F ' in new district _nH, F ' _nMand F ' _nLby formula (1)～formula (3), calculate respectively (being designated as reverse method):

F′ _NH=F _AH/s-F _OH （1），

F′ _NM=F _AM/s-F _OM （2），

F′ _NL=F _AL/s-F _OL （3），

In formula, s is the simultaneity factor in the old and new region;

5) adopt load density method or load index method prediction new district electric load, obtain high, normal, basic scheme F " _nH, F " _nMand F " _nL(being designated as direct method); This method is the common methods of new district load forecast, and its advantage is not need historical load data, as long as just the relevant informations such as the character of offering the area, land area, floor area of building can be carried out load prediction; Its shortcoming is that choosing the impact that predicts the outcome of load density target is very large.Direct method is that the load index based on same type land used is predicted, although the result of trying to achieve has very large uncertainty, and F between the loading zone that it is established " _nL～F " _nHbe believable, final load should drop on F " _nL～F " _nHin scope;

6) more above-mentioned Liang Zhong new district load prediction scheme, if F ' _nH<F " _nLor F ' _nL>F " _nH, the load prediction in old liberated area is unreasonable, adjusts weights, upgrades old liberated area load prediction value, then compares; If other situations, electric load high scheme in new district is got F _nH=min(F ' _nH, F " _nH), low scheme is got F _nL=min(F ' _nL, F " _nL), middle scheme is got

7) if whole region exists a plurality of new districts, first all new districts are considered as to integral body, obtain as stated above all new district total load predicted value F _n, within each minute, new district electric load is again according to formula

weight proportion distribute, in formula, F " _ni, F " _njthe new district i calculating for direct method or the load prediction value of new district j, F _nithe new district i load prediction value calculating for this method

For a large region, even if there is the development and construction in some new districts, the development of its load yet has certain regularity, i.e. predictability.Therefore, the present invention carrys out verification new district load according to the prediction case of whole region load, can greatly improve the accuracy of new district load forecast.

The beneficial effect that the present invention has: examine the new district load rule of development closely from the macroscopic perspective of whole region load development, the uncertainty that can overcome preferably conventional method prediction new district load, has improved the confidence level of new district load prediction, and principle is simple, easy to operate, there is very strong practicality.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is region partition structure figure of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is the possible outcome comparison diagram of two kinds of method prediction new district electric loads of the present invention.

Fig. 3 is new district of the present invention load forecast process flow diagram.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with specification drawings and specific embodiments, the invention will be further described.

With reference to Fig. 3, concrete steps of the present invention following (" scheme " hereinafter described refers to " electric load value "):

1) as shown in Figure 1, parallel region, place, electric power new district and higher level region are divided: the higher level region in new district is that region II a(is hereinafter referred to as whole region), the region at the same level in new district is region III 1, region III 2 ... region III n, be referred to as old liberated area, whole region is divided into old liberated area and new district by development situation; The region at the same level of region II a is region II b ... region II n, the higher level region in these regions is region I.

2) to the default high, normal, basic scheme F of cooperative load forecasting that provides of higher level region, place, new district II a _aH, F _aMand F _aL, as the important evidence of region II a load prediction.

3) electric load in old liberated area within the scope of estimation range II a, adopts the conventional Forecasting Methodology based on historical data, after comprehensive analysis, obtains high scheme F _oH, middle scheme F _oMwith low scheme F _oL, Forecasting Methodology can be selected the weighted value of a kind of methods such as timing method, output value unit consumption method, elastic coefficient method, intelligent algorithm or several method.

4) by the electric load of region II a and within the scope of it electric load in old liberated area calculate the electric load in new district, the high, normal, basic load prediction scheme F ' in new district _nH, F ' _nMand F ' _nLby formula (1)～formula (3), calculate respectively (being designated as reverse method):

F′ _NH=F _AH/s-F _OH （1），

F′ _NM=F _AMs-F _OM （2），

F′ _NL=F _AL/s-F _OL （3），

In formula, s is the simultaneity factor in the old and new region.

5) according to the character of each Function Construction land used of new district, the power consumption parameter with reference to similar electric load, can adopt load density method or load index method to calculate the lower limit F of new district electric load " _nLwith upper limit F " _nH.

6) the final high, normal, basic scheme F of more above-mentioned Liang Zhong new district load prediction scheme, and definite new district load _aH, F _aMand F _aL.In conjunction with Fig. 2, the result that two kinds of Forecasting Methodologies obtain have following 6 kinds may:

①F′ _NH<F″ _NL

Be that the reverse method scheme of trying to achieve is also less than the minimum scheme of direct method, judge that thus reverse method obtains old liberated area load prediction value higher, should adjust the load prediction value (weight allocation of the different Forecasting Methodologies of capable of regulating) in old liberated area, upgrade F ' _nH, F ' _nMand F ' _nL, then compare.

2. F ' _nL≤ F " _nLand F " _nL<F ' _nH≤ F " _nHtime, new district load calculates according to formula (4):

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{F}_{\mathrm{NL}}=F_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\&prime;\&prime;}\\ F_{\mathrm{NH}}=F_{\mathrm{NH}}^{\&prime;}\\ F_{\mathrm{NM}}=\frac{F_{\mathrm{NL}}+F_{\mathrm{NH}}}{2}\end{array}\right.---\left(4\right)$

3. F ' _nL≤ F " _nLand F ' _nH>F " _nHtime, new district load calculates according to formula (5):

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{F}_{\mathrm{NL}}=F_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\&prime;\&prime;}\\ F_{\mathrm{NH}}=F_{\mathrm{NH}}^{\&prime;\&prime;}\\ F_{\mathrm{NM}}=F_{\mathrm{NM}}^{\&prime;\&prime;}\end{array}\right.---\left(5\right)$

4. F ' _nL>F " _nLand F ' _nH≤ F " _nHtime, new district load calculates according to formula (6):

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{F}_{\mathrm{NL}}=F_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\&prime;}\\ F_{\mathrm{NH}}=F_{\mathrm{NH}}^{\&prime;}\\ F_{\mathrm{NH}}=F_{\mathrm{NM}}^{\&prime;}\end{array}\right.---\left(6\right)$

5. F " _nL<F ' _nL<F " _nHand F ' _nH>F " _nHtime, new district load calculates according to formula (7):

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{F}_{\mathrm{NL}}=F_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\&prime;}\\ f_{\mathrm{NH}}=F_{\mathrm{NH}}^{\&prime;\&prime;}\\ F_{\mathrm{NM}}=\frac{F_{\mathrm{NL}}+F_{\mathrm{NH}}}{2}\end{array}\right.---\left(7\right)$

⑥F′ _NL≥F″ _NH

Now, the scheme credibility being obtained by reverse method is very low, and load prediction value in old liberated area is on the low side, should adjust the load prediction value in old liberated area, upgrades F ' _nH, F ' _nMand F ' _nL, then compare.

Above-mentioned several situation also can be summarized as follows:

1. F ' _nH<F " _nLor F ' _nL>=F " _nHtime

The scheme credibility being obtained by reverse method is very low, should adjust the load prediction value in old liberated area, upgrades F ' _nH, F ' _nMand F ' _nL, then compare.

2. other situations

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}{F}_{\mathrm{NL}}=\min (F_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\&prime;},F_{\mathrm{NL}}^{\&prime;\&prime;})\\ F_{\mathrm{NH}}=\min (F_{\mathrm{NH}}^{\&prime;},F_{\mathrm{NH}}^{\&prime;\&prime;})\\ F_{\mathrm{NM}}=\frac{F_{\mathrm{NL}}+F_{\mathrm{NH}}}{2}\end{array}\right.---\left(8\right)$

7) if there are 2 above new districts within the scope of the II a of region, the load distribution in each new district is undertaken by formula (8), according to the load proportion of direct method prediction, redistributes;

$F_{\mathrm{Ni}}=\frac{F_N{F}_{\mathrm{Ni}}^{\&prime;\&prime;}}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}{F}_{\mathrm{Nj}}^{\&prime;\&prime;}}---\left(9\right)$

F in formula _nfor all new districts total load predicted value, F " _ni, F " _njthe new district i calculating for direct method or the load prediction value of new district j, F _nifor the predicted value of this method to new district i load.

According to above-mentioned Forecasting Methodology, the existing load prediction in conjunction with certain new district elaborates to the present invention.

A, data collection are made overall plans and coordinate higher level region, place, rear setting new district (region II Electric Load Forecasting measured value a).

The load forecast in the whole region of table 1

Scheme	High scheme F AH	Middle scheme F AM	Low scheme F AL
				Load (ten thousand kilowatts)	473	430	387

The electric load in old liberated area within the scope of B, estimation range II a, adopts the methods such as index return method, S curvilinear regression method, time series method, single order gray theory method to predict according to provided parameter, predict the outcome as follows:

The load forecast in table 2 old liberated area

Scheme	High scheme F OH	Middle scheme F OM	Low scheme F OL
				Index return method	382	347	312
S curvilinear regression method	352	320	288
				Time series method	317	288	259
Single order gray theory method	365	332	299
				Suggested design	354	322	290

C, according to region load and the old liberated area load new district load of retrodicting, the peak load simultaneity factor between new district and old liberated area gets 0.95, result of calculation is as follows.

The electric load in table 3 reverse method prediction new district

Region	High scheme	Middle scheme	Low scheme
				Whole region II a	473	430	387
Old liberated area	354	322	290
				New district	144	131	117

D, direct method prediction new district load, load density is selected with reference to construction land load of the same type, and result of calculation is as follows:

The electric load in table 4 direct method prediction new district

Region	High scheme	Middle scheme	Low scheme
				New district	151	130	110

E, comparison reverse method and direct method predict the outcome, and determine final load.

From table 3 and table 4, in this example, reverse method forecast interval is in direct method estimation range, and less than direct method forecast interval, so new district load prediction scheme is got reverse method prediction scheme.

Forecasting Methodology	High scheme	Middle scheme	Low scheme	High scheme deviation ratio	Low scheme deviation ratio
						Reverse method	144	131	117	9.92%	-9%
Direct method	151	130	110	16.15%	-15.38%
						The present invention	144	131	117	9.92%	-9%

The present invention predicts the method for new district load, combine direct method and region load reverse method simultaneously, can be from load load nature of electricity consumed general control load, the rule of development of loading from region is again carried out certain adjustment to new district load prediction, the uncertainty of new district load prediction is greatly reduced, the deviation ratio that has reduced height scheme, has improved the credibility of new district load prediction.

Claims (1)

1. the Forecasting Methodology for Top-layer Design Method pattern Xia new district electric load, its step is as follows: 1) parallel region, place, electric power new district and higher level region are divided: the higher level region in new district is region II a, the region at the same level in new district is region III 1, region III 2 ... region III n, is referred to as old liberated area; The region at the same level of region II a is region II b ... region II n, the higher level region in these regions is region I;

2) to the default high, normal, basic scheme F of cooperative load forecasting that provides of higher level region, place, new district II a _aH, F _aMand F _aL;

3) electric load in old liberated area within the scope of estimation range II a, adopts the conventional Forecasting Methodology based on historical data, after comprehensive analysis, obtains high scheme F _oH, middle scheme F _oMwith low scheme F _oL;

4) by the electric load of region II a and within the scope of it electric load in old liberated area calculate the electric load in new district, the high, normal, basic load prediction scheme F ' in new district _nH, F ' _nMand F ' _nLby formula (1)～formula (3), calculated respectively:

F′ _NH=F _AH/s-F _OH （1），

F′ _NM=F _AM/s-F _OM （2），

F′ _NL=F _AL/s-F _OL （3），

In formula, s is the simultaneity factor in the old and new region;

5) adopt load density method or load index method prediction new district electric load, obtain high, normal, basic scheme F " _nH, F " _nMand F " _nL, be designated as direct method;

6) more above-mentioned Liang Zhong new district load prediction scheme, if F ' _nH<F " _nLor F ' _nL>F " _nH, the load prediction in old liberated area is unreasonable, adjusts weights, upgrades old liberated area load prediction value, then compares; If other situations, electric load high scheme in new district is got F _nH=min(F ' _nH, F " _nH), low scheme is got F _nL=min(F ' _nL, F " _nL), middle scheme is got

7) if whole region exists a plurality of new districts, first all new districts are considered as to integral body, obtain as stated above all new district total load predicted value F _n, within each minute, new district electric load is again according to formula

weight proportion distribute, in formula, F " _ni, F " _njthe new district i calculating for direct method or the load prediction value of new district j, F _nithe new district i load prediction value calculating for this method.

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