CN103577881B - Based on client's mistake, the peak load shedding effect evaluation method of ordered electric - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention proposes a kind of client based on ordered electric mistake, peak load shedding effect evaluation method, employing keeps away peak index, index of taking off, the big index of index three of staggering the time. Wherein, the effect size that peak index table requisition family enforcement keeps away peak measure and rations the power supply is kept away; The effect size of rationing the power supply of measure of taking off is implemented at index table of taking off requisition family; The effect size of rationing the power supply of measure of staggering the time is implemented at index table of staggering the time requisition family. It is an advantage of the invention that: these indexes are as evaluating a kind of means that client is wrong, keep away peak measure effect, the behavior of rationing the power supply that can characterize client, to the combined influence effect of electrical network, society, client self tripartite, improves further assessment user and rations the power supply effect accuracy, fairness.

Description

Based on client's mistake, the peak load shedding effect evaluation method of ordered electric

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of client based on ordered electric mistake, peak load shedding effect evaluation method, belong to power domain.

Background technology

Imbalance between power supply and demand can occur unavoidably in the process of China's Economic development. At present, China Power market is in the process of reform, and the shortcoming of condition makes demand Side Management can not give full play to its effect, can not effectively solve power supply and demand balance problem. In the face of power supply and demand is tight slightly, under the current conditions of supply of electric power breach occurs, only carry out ordered electric work.

Establishment ordered electric scheme is the core of ordered electric work, all parts of the country are the main multiple breach situation according to supply of electric power in scheme compilation process, rely on artificial experience, coarse analysis electrical network and whole city's user's productive prospecting, power load quality event, and then take different to avoid the peak hour, keep away peak, ration the power supply, draw the measures such as electricity, establishment ordered electric decision-making scheme. And in ordered electric drawing up a plan, each client of evaluation implements the effect of ordered electric how comprehensively, accurately is the emphasis during whole scheme is worked out.

At present, main " the ordered electric management method " formulated according to National Development and Reform Committee, State Grid Corporation of China of effect that each client implements ordered electric will be assessed. The usual practice is first according to " have and possess limit " principle in " ordered electric management method ", according to client's " industry " with electrical property, judge with artificial experience by linking up, client is divided into highly energy-consuming user, concentrated maintenance class user, production, non-work user, ensures the big class of the user five that powers. Secondly, limit the size of load to execute mistake as assessment, keep away the effect at peak using its client above-mentioned five class users.

Ordered electric is a multifactor control multiobjectives decision problem, need to consider from electrical network, government, corporate client many-side, existing evaluation model is using the payload limit of client as judgement criteria, constraint condition is single, not considering the various dimensions information of client, evaluation result is not comprehensive, unfair. The main effect size of rationing the power supply judging user according to artificial experience under present mode, causes bargaining in assessment client's mistake, peak load shedding effect process, affects the efficiency of drawing up a plan.

Summary of the invention

It is an object of the invention to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, a kind of client based on ordered electric mistake, peak load shedding effect evaluation method are provided, quantum chemical method client can implement ordered electric effect, it comprise keep away peak index, index of taking off, index of staggering the time, these indexes are applied to power supply enterprise's ordered electric scheme establishment, to improve power grid enterprises' ordered electric implementation effect.

According to technical scheme provided by the invention, the described client based on ordered electric is wrong, peak load shedding effect evaluation method, adopt the effect size kept away peak index table requisition family enforcement and keep away peak measure and ration the power supply, adopt index table requisition family of taking off to implement the effect size of rationing the power supply of measure of taking off, adopt index table requisition family of staggering the time to implement the effect size of rationing the power supply of measure of staggering the time; Concrete computation process is divided into 4 steps to carry out,

Step 1, calculate relate to described in keep away peak index, the correlation parameter of index of taking off, index of staggering the time as follows:

1.1) client's typical curve is drawn: choosing client's load data of recent at least 3 months, daily load curve in this period is carried out superposed average calculating, matching forms client's typical load curve;

1.2) calculate client's year production increased value and year power consumption ratio, obtain client's unit electricity production increased value;

1.3) calculate client 1 year to government's profits tax amount of money and year power consumption ratio, obtain client's unit electricity profits tax;

1.4) calculate the average of client's load and the ratio of standard deviation in typical case's time day 8:00 to 22:00, obtain client's fluctuation of load rate; Fluctuation of load rate calculation formula is as follows:

$f_1=\frac{\mathrm{\σ}}{\mathrm{\μ}}=\frac{\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{(P_i-\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{P}_i)}^2}}{\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{P}_i}$

In formula: f_l-fluctuation of load rate;

P_iThe typical load value of-the i-th moment point;

The standard deviation of ��-load;

The average of ��-load;

The quantity of moment point described in N-;

1.5) client's protective load is calculated: in statistics step 1.1, client chooses the actual load data in the time period, calculates the arithmetical av of minimum 200 load point, and formula is as follows:

$P_{s1}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{200}{p}_{\min i}}{200}$

In formula: p_sl-protective load;

p_mini-the i-th minimum load point;

1.6) calculating client and can limit load: the client's typical load curve drawn according to step 1.1, calculation formula is as follows:

P_ll-mor=(P_pl-mor-P_sl)����_p

P_ll-mid=(P_pl-mid-P_sl)����_p

P_ll-eve=(P_pl-ev_e-P_sl)����_p

In formula: P_ll-mor��P_ll-mid��P_ll-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the load limit of peak period in evening respectively;

P_sl-protective load;

P_pl-mor��P_pl-mid��P_pl-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the peak load of peak period in evening respectively;

��_p-rate simultaneously;

Step 2, keep away peak Index for Calculation:

2.1) client, according to step 1 obtained keeps away peak index parameters and calculates client and keep away peak index initial value, and formula is as follows:

In formula: P_pl-mor��P_pl-mid��P_ll-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the load limit of peak period in evening respectively;

E_q-unit electricity production increased value;

T_q-unit electricity profits tax;

f_l-fluctuation of load rate;

P_q-client electricity price;

2.2) arrange all clients and keep away peak index just Value Data, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5, peak index initial value will be kept away and be divided into 5 grades, and be respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;

2.3) judge that whether client's nature of production is continuous;

2.4) one grade of process is fallen in the peak index initial value of keeping away of discontinuity user, calculate and keep away peak index; To continuity user, keep away peak index value constant;

Step 3, Index for Calculation of taking off:

3.1) calculating index value initial value of taking off, formula is as follows: index initial value of taking off=can limit load;

3.2) arranging all clients to take off index just Value Data, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5, index initial value of taking off is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;

3.3) according to client's typical load curve, calculating client and week stop rate, formula is as follows:

$r_{zx}=\frac{Q_{wd}-Q_{we}}{Q_{wd}-Q_{sl}}$

In formula: Q_wdThe arithmetical av of the load total amount of-Monday to Friday;

Q_WeThe arithmetical av of the load total amount on Sunday-Saturday;

Q_sl-protective load load the total amount of a day;

3.4) rate of week being stopped be greater than 0.3 and the client that is less than 0.7 index initial value of taking off two grades of process are fallen; One grade of process falls in the client that rate of being stopped in week is more than or equal to 0.7 index initial value of taking off, to week not rate be less than or the client that equals 0.3 index initial value of taking off constant;

Step 4, Index for Calculation of staggering the time:

4.1) calculating index value initial value of staggering the time, formula is as follows: index initial value of staggering the time=can limit load;

4.2) adding up all clients to stagger the time index initial value, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5, index of staggering the time is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;

4.3) index results of staggering the time does not adjust, identical with initial value.

Described rate �� simultaneously_pGenerally get 0.8.

Described morning peak, Yao Feng, evening the peak period be respectively: 8:00-12:00,12:00-17:00,17:00-22:00.

It is an advantage of the invention that: the evaluation number proposing a set of client based on ordered electric mistake, peak load shedding measure implementation result, this index is as evaluating a kind of means that client is wrong, keep away peak measure effect, the behavior of rationing the power supply that can characterize client, to the combined influence effect of electrical network, society, client self tripartite, improves further assessment user and rations the power supply effect accuracy, fairness.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is that client's ordered electric is worth Index system framework figure.

Fig. 2 is the client's mistake based on ordered electric, keeps away peak measure effect evaluation number calculation flow chart.

Fig. 3 is client's continuous production determination methods schema.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described.

The present invention sets up client's ordered electric evaluation system, and system is divided into three levels, and evaluation system structure is as shown in Figure 1.

(1) destination layer: client implements to avoid the peak hour, keep away the effect of peak measure;

(2) indicator layer: wrong, keep away peak measure evaluation index, comprise keep away peak index, index of taking off, index of staggering the time;

(3) parameter layer: relate to keep away peak index, the correlation parameter of index of taking off, index of staggering the time.

Grid power breach, economic impact, electricity impact, tax revenue affects four factor as constraint condition by the present invention, build mathematical model, it is proposed to keep away peak index, index of taking off, index three of staggering the time index greatly. Wherein, the effect size that peak index table requisition family enforcement keeps away peak measure and rations the power supply is kept away; The effect size of rationing the power supply of measure of taking off is implemented at index table of taking off requisition family; The effect size of rationing the power supply of measure of staggering the time is implemented at index table of staggering the time requisition family.

The concrete computation process of above-mentioned index is divided into 4 steps to carry out, as shown in Figure 2.

Step 1, calculate relate to keep away peak index, index of taking off, correlation of indices parameter of staggering the time.

1.1) client's typical curve is drawn. Choosing client's load data (not comprising Holidays) of recent at least 3 months, daily load curve in this period is carried out superposed average calculating, matching forms client's typical load curve.

1.2) calculate client's year production increased value and year power consumption ratio, obtain client's unit electricity production increased value.

1.3) calculate client 1 year to government's profits tax amount of money and year power consumption ratio, obtain client's unit electricity profits tax.

1.4) calculate the average of client's load and the ratio of standard deviation in typical case's time day 8:00 to 22:00, obtain client's fluctuation of load rate. Some typical case's days can also be chosen as sample, calculate respectively when daily load fluctuating rate value, then calculate the fluctuation of load rate of arithmetical av as client. Fluctuation of load rate calculation formula is as follows:

$f_l=\frac{\mathrm{\σ}}{\mathrm{\μ}}=\frac{\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{(P_i-\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{P}_i)}^2}}{\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{P}_i}$

In formula: f_lFluctuation of load rate;

P_iThe typical load value of i-th moment point;

The standard deviation of �� load;

The average of �� load.

1.5) client's protective load is calculated. In statistics step 1.1, client chooses the actual load data in the time period, calculates the arithmetical av of minimum 200 load point, and formula is as follows:

$P_{s1}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{200}{p}_{\min i}}{200}$

In formula: p_slProtective load;

p_miniI-th minimum load point.

1.6), calculate client and can limit load. The client's typical load curve drawn according to step 1.1, calculation formula is as follows:

P_pl-mor=(P_pl-mor-P_sl)����_p

P_ll-mid=(P_pl-mid-P_sl)����_p

P_ll-eve=(P_pl-eve-P_sl)����_p

In formula: P_ll-mor��P_pl-mid��P_ll-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the load limit of peak period in evening respectively;

P_slProtective load;

P_pl-mor��P_pl-mid��P_pl-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the peak load of peak period in evening respectively;

��_pRate simultaneously, generally gets 0.8.

Table 1 ordered electric arranges peak period

Step 2, keep away peak Index for Calculation.

2.1) client, according to step 1 obtained keeps away peak index parameters, calculates client and keeps away peak index initial value, and formula is as follows:

In formula: P_ll-mor��P_ll-mid��P_ll-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the load limit of peak period in evening respectively;

E_qUnit electricity production increased value;

T_qUnit electricity profits tax;

f_lFluctuation of load rate;

P_qClient's electricity price.

2.2) arrange all clients and keep away peak index just Value Data, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5. Peak index initial value will be kept away and it will be divided into 5 grades, be respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor.

2.3) judge that whether client's nature of production is continuous.

2.4) one grade of process is fallen in the peak index initial value of keeping away of discontinuity user, calculate and keep away peak index; To continuity user, keep away peak index value constant. Concrete calculated examples is as follows:

Assuming that certain client keeps away peak index initial value is m, is within the scope of first grade of level, judges that this client is as discontinuity user, then

Assuming that certain client initially keeps away peak index is n, is in first grade, judges that this client is as continuity user, then keep away peak index constant.

Peak index effect assessment index table kept away by table 2

Keep away peak index range	Keep away peak effect assessment	Shelves level
			a-A	Excellent	First grade
b-B	Good	Second gear
			c-C	Moderate	Third gear
d-D	Generally	Fourth gear
			e-E	Difference	Fifth speed

Step 3, Index for Calculation of taking off.

3.1) calculating index value initial value of taking off, formula is as follows: index initial value of taking off=can limit load.

3.2) arrange all clients to take off index just Value Data, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5. Index initial value of taking off is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor.

3.3) according to client's typical load curve, calculating client and week stop rate, formula is as follows:

$r_{zx}=\frac{Q_{wd}-Q_{we}}{Q_{wd}-Q_{sl}}$

In formula: Q_wdThe arithmetical av of the load total amount of Monday to Friday;

Q_WeThe arithmetical av of the load total amount on Sunday Saturday;

Q_slRepresent the protective load load total amount of a day;

3.4) rate of week being stopped be greater than 0.3 and the client that is less than 0.7 index initial value of taking off two grades of process are fallen; One grade of process falls in the client that rate of being stopped in week is more than or equal to 0.7 index initial value of taking off, to week not rate be less than or the client that equals 0.3 index initial value of taking off constant. Concrete downshift algorithm is identical with keeping away peak index.

Step 4 is staggered the time Index for Calculation.

4.1) calculating index value initial value of staggering the time, formula is as follows:

4.2) add up all clients to stagger the time index initial value, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5. Index of staggering the time is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor.

4.3) index results of staggering the time does not adjust, identical with initial value.

As shown in Figure 3, the judgement of user's continuous production is realized in accordance with the following methods.

Corporate client nature of production is divided into continuity and discontinuity. Consecutive production enterprise is generally the continuous operation of three-shift, and power load is big, and load curve is relatively steady. Discontinuity manufacturing enterprise is generally manufacture-illegal continuous production process day shift, and power load is little, and load curve fluctuation is bigger.

By being classified by client's typical curve, client is divided into continuity and discontinuity manufacturing enterprise. First the time axle (00:00��24:00) in 1 day (24 hours) is divided into 48 time periods, it is respectively T₁, T₂..., T₄₈. Taking the current ordered electric moment as starting point, choosing client's electricity consumption data of nearly 3 months is sample storehouse (rejecting Holidays). User's nature of production method of calculation are as follows:

(1) according to sample database data, client's load data is carried out superposed average calculating, fit to one day client's typical load curve.

(2) taking 20% numerical value of typical load curve maximum load as one-level, load curve being divided into 5 grades of intervals, minimum one-level is the 20% of maximum load.

(3) add up typical load curve internal loading value and it is less than counting of minimum one-level load in section. Judge that this load point quantity accounts for the (T that always counts₁, T₂..., T₄₈) ratio whether be less than 10%, if being less than 10%, then client produces continuously, otherwise for produce discontinuous.

The present invention compensate for domestic extensive style, unicity evaluation client's ordered electric wrong, keep away peak measure implementation result, the ordered electric providing various dimensions to quantize for power supply enterprise is wrong, keep away peak measure effect evaluation method. Specifically: abandoned artificial experience judgment model, many-sided combined factors such as ability, economic impact, electricity impact, tax revenue impact that client is rationed the power supply for keeping away peak index, index of taking off, index three norms of staggering the time, ration the power supply effect foundation using index size as evaluation client, greatly improve ordered electric scheme establishment efficiency, it is to increase the science of recruitment evaluation of rationing the power supply, fairness.

Hereinafter some nouns involved in the present invention are explained.

Ordered electric: ordered electric refers to when supply of electric power deficiency, accident, by administrative measure, economical means, technological method, controls part need for electricity in accordance with the law, safeguards for the stable management work of electricity consumption order. Take to avoid the peak hour, keep away peak, have holidays by turns, allow electricity, a series of measure such as ration the power supply, avoid without plan power cuts to limit consumption, specification electricity consumption order, the disadvantageous effect that imbalance between power supply and demand brings to society and enterprise is down to minimum level.

Daily treatment cost: the maximum value in one day each half an hour integral point supply load.

Avoid the peak hour: avoiding the peak hour refers to the power load of peak period is transferred to other periods, usually do not reduce electric energy and use.

Keep away peak: keep away peak and refer in reduction peak period, interrupting or stopping power load, usually can reduce electric energy and use.

Ration the power supply: the part or all of need for electricity rationed the power supply and refer to and limit some user at specific time period.

Operate a switch: operate a switch, refer to that scheduling institution at different levels issues traffic order, cut-out power load.

Electric power breach: electric power breach refers to a certain time point, all users avoid the peak hour, keep away peak, ration the power supply, load sum of operating a switch.

Early warning signal: accounting for the difference when phase maximum need for electricity ratio according to electric power breach, early warning signal is divided into four grades:

I level: especially severe (redness, more than 20%);

II level: serious (orange, 10%-20%);

III level: heavier (yellow, 5%-10%);

IV level: general (blueness, less than 5%).

Load can be limit: load can be limit to represent, and user only retains guarantee load when electric power peak period, closes down the load of equipment " reducing ".

Protective load: protective load refers to and ensures the electricity consumption place person and the electric power load needed for property safety.

Claims (3)

1., based on client's mistake, the peak load shedding effect evaluation method of ordered electric, it is characterized in that:

Adopt the effect size kept away peak index table requisition family enforcement and keep away peak measure and ration the power supply, adopt index table requisition family of taking off to implement the effect size of rationing the power supply of measure of taking off, adopt index table of staggering the time to take over the effect size of rationing the power supply that measure of staggering the time is implemented at family for use; Concrete computation process is divided into 4 steps to carry out,

Step 1, calculate relate to described in keep away peak index, the correlation parameter of index of taking off, index of staggering the time as follows:

Step 1.1, drafting client's typical curve: choosing client's load data of recent at least 3 months, daily load curve in this period is carried out superposed average calculating, matching forms client's typical load curve;

Step 1.2, calculate client's year production increased value and year power consumption ratio, obtain client's unit electricity production increased value;

Step 1.3, calculate client 1 year to government's profits tax amount of money and year power consumption ratio, obtain client's unit electricity profits tax;

Step 1.4, calculate typical case time day 8:00 to 22:00 in the average of client's load and the ratio of standard deviation, obtain client's fluctuation of load rate; Fluctuation of load rate calculation formula is as follows:

$f_l=\frac{\mathrm{\σ}}{\mathrm{\μ}}=\frac{\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{(P_i-\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{P}_i)}^2}}{\frac{1}{N}{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^N{P}_i}$

In formula: f_l-fluctuation of load rate;

P_iThe typical load value of-the i-th moment point;

The standard deviation of ��-load;

The average of ��-load;

The quantity of moment point described in N-;

Step 1.5, calculating client's protective load: in statistics step 1.1, client chooses the actual load data in the time period, calculates the arithmetical av of minimum 200 load point, and formula is as follows:

$P_{sl}=\frac{{\mathrm{\Σ}}_{i=1}^{200}{P}_{\min i}}{200}$

In formula: p_sl-protective load;

p_mini-the i-th minimum load point;

Step 1.6, calculating client can limit load: the client's typical load curve drawn according to step 1.1, and calculation formula is as follows:

P_ll-mor=(P_pl-mor-P_sl)����_p

P_ll-mid=(P_pl-mid-P_sl)����_p

P_ll-eve=(P_pl-eve-P_sl)����_p

In formula: P_ll-mor��P_ll-mid��P_ll-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the load limit of peak period in evening respectively;

P_sl-protective load;

P_pl-mor��P_pl-mid��P_pl-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the peak load of peak period in evening respectively;

��_p-rate simultaneously;

Step 2, keep away peak Index for Calculation:

Step 2.1, the client obtained according to step 1 keep away peak index parameters and calculate client and keep away peak index initial value, and formula is as follows:

In formula: P_ll-mor��P_ll-mid��P_ll-eveRepresent peak morning, Yao Feng, the load limit of peak period in evening respectively;

E_q-unit electricity production increased value;

T_q-unit electricity profits tax;

f_l-fluctuation of load rate;

P_q-client electricity price;

Step 2.2, arrange all clients and keep away peak index first Value Data, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5, will keep away peak index initial value and be divided into 5 grades, and be respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;

Step 2.3, judge that whether client's nature of production is continuous;

One grade of process falls in step 2.4, peak index initial value of keeping away to discontinuity user, and calculates and keeps away peak index; To continuity user, keep away peak index value constant;

Step 3, Index for Calculation of taking off:

Step 3.1, calculating and take off index value initial value, formula is as follows: index initial value of taking off=can limit load;

Step 3.2, arrange all clients and take off index first Value Data, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5, and index initial value of taking off is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;

Step 3.3, according to client's typical load curve, calculating client and week stop rate, formula is as follows:

$r_{zx}=\frac{Q_{wd}-Q_{we}}{Q_{wd}-Q_{sl}}$

In formula: Q_wdThe arithmetical av of the load total amount of-Monday to Friday;

Q_weThe arithmetical av of the load total amount on Sunday-Saturday;

Q_sl-protective load load the total amount of a day;

Two grades of process fall in step 3.4, the client stop rate being greater than 0.3 week and be less than 0.7 index initial value of taking off; One grade of process falls in the client that rate of being stopped in week is more than or equal to 0.7 index initial value of taking off, to week not rate be less than or the client that equals 0.3 index initial value of taking off constant;

Step 4, Index for Calculation of staggering the time:

Step 4.1, calculating and stagger the time index value initial value, formula is as follows: index initial value of staggering the time=can limit load;

Step 4.2, adding up all clients and stagger the time index initial value, use K-means cluster analysis method, get K=5, index of staggering the time is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;

Step 4.3, index results of staggering the time do not adjust, identical with initial value.

2., as claimed in claim 1 based on client's mistake, the peak load shedding effect evaluation method of ordered electric, it is characterized in that, described rate �� simultaneously_pGet 0.8.

3., peak load shedding effect evaluation method wrong based on the client of ordered electric as claimed in claim 1, is characterized in that, described morning peak, Yao Feng, peak period in evening be respectively: 8:00-12:00,12:00-17:00,17:00-22:00.