CN103577881A - Client peak alternating and avoiding power limiting effect evaluation method based on orderly power utilization - Google Patents
Client peak alternating and avoiding power limiting effect evaluation method based on orderly power utilization Download PDFInfo
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- CN103577881A CN103577881A CN201310559855.3A CN201310559855A CN103577881A CN 103577881 A CN103577881 A CN 103577881A CN 201310559855 A CN201310559855 A CN 201310559855A CN 103577881 A CN103577881 A CN 103577881A
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Abstract
The invention provides a client peak alternating and avoiding power limiting effect evaluation method based on orderly power utilization. A peak avoiding index, a resting index and a time alternating index are adopted, wherein the peak avoiding index represents the effect that a user takes peak avoiding measures for power limiting, the resting index represents the effect that the user takes resting measures for power limiting, and the time alternating index represents the effect that the user takes time alternating measures for power limiting. The method has the advantages that the indexes serve as means for evaluating client peak alternating and avoiding effects, comprehensive influence effects of client power limiting behaviors on the power grid, the society and a client can be presented, and evaluation of accuracy and fairness of the user power limiting effect is further improved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of client based on ordered electric wrong, keep away the peak effect evaluation method of rationing the power supply, belong to power domain.
Background technology
Imbalance between power supply and demand can occur unavoidably in the process of China's economic development.At present, in the process of Power Market In China in reform, the shortcoming of condition makes demand Side Management can not give full play to its effect, can not effectively solve power supply and demand balance problem.Tight slightly in the face of power supply and demand, occur, under the current conditions of electric power supply breach, only having the work of the ordered electric of development.
Establishment ordered electric scheme is the core of ordered electric work, in all parts of the country main according to the multiple breach situation of electric power supply in Working Out The Scheme, rely on artificial experience, coarse analysis electrical network and the user of whole city production feature, power load characteristic situation, and then take different to avoid the peak hour, keep away peak, ration the power supply, draw the measures such as electricity, establishment ordered electric decision scheme.And in ordered electric drawing up a plan, evaluating the effect that each client implements ordered electric how comprehensively, is accurately the emphasis in whole programming.
At present, assess the effect Main Basis National Development and Reform Committee that each client implements ordered electric, the < < ordered electric management method > > that State Grid Corporation of China formulates.Conventionally the practice is first according to " have and possess limit " principle in < < ordered electric management method > >, according to the load nature of electricity consumed of client's " industry ", by communication and artificial experience, judge, client is divided into highly energy-consuming user, concentrates and overhaul class user, manufacturing industry, non-work user, the large class of guarantee power supply user five.Secondly, above-mentioned five class users are usingd to the effect that the size of its client's limited load executes mistake, keeps away peak as assessment.
Ordered electric is a multifactor control decision-making problem of multi-objective, need to be from electrical network, government, the many-sided consideration of corporate client, existing evaluation model be using client can limited load size as evaluation criterion, constraint condition is single, the various dimensions information that does not consider client, evaluation result is not comprehensive, unfair.Under present mode mainly according to artificial experience judgement user's the effect size of rationing the power supply, cause wrong assessment client, keep away peak and ration the power supply in effect process and bargain, affect the efficiency of drawing up a plan.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, provide a kind of client based on ordered electric wrong, keep away the peak effect evaluation method of rationing the power supply, can quantize computing client and implement ordered electric effect, it comprise keep away peak index, the index of taking off, the index of staggering the time, these indexes are applied to power supply enterprise's ordered electric programming, to improve power grid enterprises' ordered electric implementation effect.
According to technical scheme provided by the invention, the described client based on ordered electric is wrong, keep away the peak effect evaluation method of rationing the power supply, employing keeps away index table requisition family, peak and implements to keep away the effect size that peak measure is rationed the power supply, the effect size of rationing the power supply of the measure of taking off is implemented at the employing index table requisition family of taking off, and adopts the index table requisition family of staggering the time to implement the effect size of rationing the power supply of the measure of staggering the time; Concrete computation process is divided into 4 steps carries out,
Step 1, calculate described in relating to keep away peak index, the correlation parameter of the index of taking off, the index of staggering the time is as follows:
1.1) draw client's typical curve: choose client's load data of recent at least 3 months, daily load curve in this period is carried out to superposed average calculating, matching forms client's typical load curve;
1.2) ratio of computing client year production added value and year power consumption, obtains client's unit quantity of electricity production added value;
1.3) ratio of the computing client Yi Nianxiang government profits tax amount of money and year power consumption, obtains client's unit quantity of electricity profits tax;
1.4) calculate the average of typical case day 8:00 to 22:00 client's load in the time and the ratio of standard deviation, obtain client's load fluctuation rate; Load fluctuation rate computing formula is as follows:
In formula: f
l-load fluctuation rate;
P
ithe typical load value an of-i moment point;
The standard deviation of σ-load;
The average of μ-load;
1.5) computing client protective load: the actual load data in statistic procedure 1.1 in client's section access time, the arithmetic mean of 200 load point that calculating is minimum, formula is as follows:
In formula: P
sl-protective load;
P
mini-i minimum load point;
1.6) computing client can limited load: client's typical load curve of drawing according to step 1.1, and computing formula is as follows:
P
ll-mor=(P
pl-mor-P
sl)×δ
p
P
ll-mid=(P
pl-mid-P
sl)×δ
p
P
ll-eve=(P
pl-eve-P
sl)×δ
p
In formula: P
ll-mor, P
ll-mid,
pll-evewhat represent respectively ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period early can limited load;
P
sl-protective load;
P
pl-mor, P
pl-mid, P
pl-everepresent respectively the early peak load of ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period;
δ
p-simultaneity factor;
Step 2, keep away peak index and calculate:
2.1), the client that obtains according to step 1 keeps away peak index parameters computing client and keeps away peak index initial value, formula is as follows:
In formula: P
ll-mor, P
ll-mid, P
ll-evewhat represent respectively ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period early can limited load;
E
q-unit quantity of electricity production added value;
T
q-unit quantity of electricity profits tax;
F
l-load fluctuation rate;
P
q-client electricity price;
2.2) arrange all clients and keep away just Value Data of peak index, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5, will keep away peak index initial value and be divided into 5 grades, be respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;
2.3) judge that whether client's nature of production is continuous;
2.4) one grade of processing is fallen in noncontinuity user's the peak index initial value of keeping away, calculate and keep away peak index; To continuity user, keep away peak exponential quantity constant;
Step 3, the index of taking off calculate:
3.1) calculate the exponential quantity initial value of taking off, formula is as follows: the index initial value of taking off=and can limited load;
3.2) arrange all clients just Value Data of index of taking off, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5, the index initial value of taking off is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;
3.3) according to client's typical load curve, computing client week is stopped rate, and formula is as follows:
In formula: Q
wdthe arithmetic mean of the load total amount of-Mon-Fri;
Q
wsthe arithmetic mean of the load total amount on Sunday-Saturday;
Q
sl-protective load load the total amount of a day;
3.4) to week the rate of stopping be greater than 0.3 and be less than 0.7 the client index initial value of taking off and fall two grades of processing; To week the rate of stopping be greater than and equal 0.7 the client index initial value of taking off and fall one grade of processing, to week the rate of stopping be less than and to equal 0.3 the client index initial value of taking off constant;
Step 4, the index of staggering the time calculate:
4.1) calculate the exponential quantity initial value of staggering the time, formula is as follows: the index initial value=deferrable load of staggering the time;
4.2) add up all clients index initial value of staggering the time, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5, the index of staggering the time is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;
4.3) the index result of staggering the time does not adjust, identical with initial value.
Described simultaneity factor δ
pgenerally get 0.8.
Described morning of the peak ,Yao peak ,Wan peak period is respectively: 8:00-12:00,12:00-17:00,17:00-22:00.
Advantage of the present invention is: propose the evaluation number that a set of client based on ordered electric is wrong, keep away peak margining electric method implementation result, this index is as evaluating a kind of means that client is wrong, keep away peak measure effect, the combined influence effect of the behavior of rationing the power supply that can characterize client to electrical network, society, client self tripartite, further improves assessment user ration the power supply effect accuracy, fairness.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is client's ordered electric value index System Framework figure.
Fig. 2 be client based on ordered electric wrong, keep away peak measure effect evaluation number calculation flow chart.
Fig. 3 is client's continuous production determination methods process flow diagram.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described.
The present invention sets up client's ordered electric evaluation system, and system is divided into three levels, and appraisement system structure as shown in Figure 1.
(1) destination layer: client implements to avoid the peak hour, keep away the effect of peak measure;
(2) indicator layer: wrong, keep away peak measure evaluation index, comprise keep away peak index, the index of taking off, the index of staggering the time;
(3) parameter layer: relate to keep away peak index, the correlation parameter of the index of taking off, the index of staggering the time.
The present invention, using grid power breach, economic impact, electric weight impact, repercussion of tax four key elements as constraint condition, builds mathematical model, proposes to keep away peak index, the index of taking off, the large index of index three of staggering the time.Wherein, keep away index table requisition family, peak and implement to keep away the effect size that peak measure is rationed the power supply; The effect size of rationing the power supply of the measure of taking off is implemented at the index table of taking off requisition family; The effect size of rationing the power supply of the measure of staggering the time is implemented at the index table of staggering the time requisition family.
The concrete computation process of above-mentioned index is divided into 4 steps carries out, as shown in Figure 2.
Step 1, calculate relate to keep away peak index, the index of taking off, the correlation of indices parameter of staggering the time.
1.1) draw client's typical curve.Choose client's load data (not comprising festivals or holidays) of recent at least 3 months, daily load curve in this period is carried out to superposed average calculating, matching forms client's typical load curve.
1.2) ratio of computing client year production added value and year power consumption, obtains client's unit quantity of electricity production added value.
1.3) ratio of the computing client Yi Nianxiang government profits tax amount of money and year power consumption, obtains client's unit quantity of electricity profits tax.
1.4) calculate the average of typical case day 8:00 to 22:00 client's load in the time and the ratio of standard deviation, obtain client's load fluctuation rate.Also can choose some typical case's days as sample, calculate when daily load fluctuating rate value respectively, then calculate arithmetic mean as client's load fluctuation rate.Load fluctuation rate computing formula is as follows:
In formula: f
l---load fluctuation rate;
P
i---the typical load value of i moment point;
The standard deviation of σ---load;
The average of μ---load.
1.5) computing client protective load.Actual load data in statistic procedure 1.1 in client's section access time, the arithmetic mean of 200 load point that calculating is minimum, formula is as follows:
In formula: p
sl---protective load;
P
mini---i minimum load point.
1.6), computing client can limited load.Client's typical load curve of drawing according to step 1.1, computing formula is as follows:
P
ll-mor=(P
pl-mor-P
sl)×δ
p
P
ll-mid=(P
pl-mid-P
sl)×δ
p
P
ll-eve=(P
pL-eve-P
sl)×δ
p
In formula: P
ll-mor, P
ll-mid, P
ll-eve---what represent respectively ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period early can limited load;
P
sl---protective load;
P
pl-mor, P
pl-mid, P
pl-eve---represent respectively the early peak load of ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period;
δ
p---simultaneity factor, generally get 0.8.
Table 1 ordered electric arranges peak period
Step 2, keep away peak index and calculate.
2.1), the client that obtains according to step 1 keeps away peak index parameters, computing client is kept away peak index initial value, formula is as follows:
In formula: P
ll-mor, P
ll-mid, P
ll-eve---what represent respectively ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period early can limited load;
E
q---unit quantity of electricity production added value;
T
q---unit quantity of electricity profits tax;
F
l---load fluctuation rate;
P
q---client's electricity price.
2.2) arrange all clients and keep away just Value Data of peak index, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5.To keep away peak index initial value and be divided into 5 grades, be respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor.
2.3) judge that whether client's nature of production is continuous.
2.4) one grade of processing is fallen in noncontinuity user's the peak index initial value of keeping away, calculate and keep away peak index; To continuity user, keep away peak exponential quantity constant.Concrete calculated examples is as follows:
Suppose that it is m that certain client keeps away peak index initial value, be within the scope of first grade of level, judge that this client is noncontinuity user,
Suppose certain client initially keep away peak index be n in first grade, judge that this client is continuity user, keeps away peak index constant.
Table 2 is kept away peak index Indexes of Evaluation Effect table
Keep away peak index range | Keep away peak effect assessment | Shelves level |
a-A | Excellent | First grade |
b-B | Good | Second gear |
c-C | Moderate | Third gear |
d-D | Generally | Fourth speed |
e-E | Poor | The 5th grade |
Step 3, the index of taking off calculate.
3.1) calculate the exponential quantity initial value of taking off, formula is as follows: the index initial value of taking off=and can limited load.
3.2) arrange all clients just Value Data of index of taking off, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5.The index initial value of taking off is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor.
3.3) according to client's typical load curve, computing client week is stopped rate, and formula is as follows:
In formula: Q
wd---the arithmetic mean of the load total amount of Mon-Fri;
Q
we---the arithmetic mean of the load total amount on Sunday Saturday;
Q
sl---represent the protective load load total amount of a day;
3.4) to week the rate of stopping be greater than 0.3 and be less than 0.7 the client index initial value of taking off and fall two grades of processing; To week the rate of stopping be greater than and equal 0.7 the client index initial value of taking off and fall one grade of processing, to week the rate of stopping be less than and to equal 0.3 the client index initial value of taking off constant.Specifically lower category algorithm with to keep away peak index identical.
Step 4 index of staggering the time calculates.
4.1) calculate the exponential quantity initial value of staggering the time, formula is as follows:
4.2) add up all clients index initial value of staggering the time, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5.The index of staggering the time is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor.
4.3) the index result of staggering the time does not adjust, identical with initial value.
As shown in Figure 3, the judgement of user's continuous production is realized in accordance with the following methods.
Corporate client nature of production is divided into continuity and noncontinuity.Consecutive production enterprise is generally three-shift system and works continuously, and power load is large, and load curve is relatively steady.Noncontinuity manufacturing enterprise is generally manufacture-illegal continuous production process day shift, and power load is little, and load curve fluctuation is larger.
By client's typical curve is classified, client is divided into continuity and noncontinuity manufacturing enterprise.First the time shaft (00:00~24:00) in 1 day (24 hours) is divided into 48 time periods, is respectively T
1, T
2..., T
48.The current ordered electric of take is starting point constantly, and choosing client's electricity consumption data of nearly 3 months is Sample Storehouse (rejecting festivals or holidays).User's nature of production computing method are as follows:
(1) according to Sample Storehouse data, client's load data is carried out to superposed average calculating, fit to one day client's typical load curve.
(2) take 20% numerical value of typical load curve peak load is one-level, and load curve is divided into 5 grades of intervals, and minimum one-level is peak load 20%.
(3) statistics typical load curve internal loading value is less than counting of minimum one-level load in section.Judge that this load point quantity always accounts for (the T that counts
1, T
2..., T
48) ratio whether be less than 10%, if be less than 10%, client produces continuously, otherwise discontinuous for producing.
The present invention made up domestic extensive style, unicity evaluation client ordered electric wrong, keep away peak measure implementation result ,Wei power supply enterprise provide the quantifiable ordered electric of various dimensions wrong, keep away peak measure effect evaluation method.Specifically: abandoned artificial experience judgment model, client is rationed the power supply the many factors such as ability, economic impact, electric weight impact, repercussion of tax comprehensively for keeping away peak index, the index of taking off, the index three norms of staggering the time, using index size as evaluating client's effect foundation of rationing the power supply, greatly improve ordered electric programming efficiency, improve science, the fairness of the recruitment evaluation of rationing the power supply.
Below some nouns involved in the present invention are made an explanation.
Ordered electric: ordered electric refers in the situations such as electric power supply deficiency, accident, by administrative measure, economic means, technical method, control section need for electricity, safeguards for the management work stably of electricity consumption order in accordance with the law.Take to avoid the peak hour, keep away peak, have holidays by turns, allow electricity, the series of measures such as ration the power supply, avoid without plan power cuts to limit consumption, standard electricity consumption order, the adverse effect of bringing imbalance between power supply and demand to society and enterprise is down to minimum level.
Day peak load: the maximal value in one day each integral point supply load half an hour.
Avoid the peak hour: avoiding the peak hour refers to the power load of peak period is transferred to other periods, conventionally do not reduce electric energy and use.
Keep away peak: keep away peak and refer in reduction peak period, interrupting or stopping power load, conventionally can reduce electric energy and use.
Ration the power supply: ration the power supply and refer to the part or all of need for electricity specific time period restriction certain user.
Operate a switch: operate a switch, refer to scheduling institution issue traffic orders at different levels, cut-out power load.
Electric power breach: electric power breach refers to point sometime, all users avoid the peak hour, keep away peak, the load sum of rationing the power supply, operate a switch.
Early warning signal: account for the difference of current maximum need for electricity ratio according to electric power breach, early warning signal is divided into four grades:
I level: especially severe (red, more than 20%);
II level: serious (orange, 10%-20%);
III level: heavier (yellow, 5%-10%);
IV level: general (blue, below 5%).
Can limited load: can be illustrated in electric power during peak period by limited load, user only retains and ensures load, closes down the load that equipment " has reduced ".
Protective load: protective load refers to the electric load that ensures that the electricity consumption place person is required with property safety.
Claims (3)
- Client based on ordered electric wrong, keep away the peak effect evaluation method of rationing the power supply, it is characterized in that:Employing keeps away index table requisition family, peak and implements to keep away the effect size that peak measure is rationed the power supply, and adopts the index table requisition family of taking off to implement the effect size of rationing the power supply of the measure of taking off, and adopts the index table requisition family of staggering the time to implement the effect size of rationing the power supply of the measure of staggering the time; Concrete computation process is divided into 4 steps carries out,Step 1, calculate described in relating to keep away peak index, the correlation parameter of the index of taking off, the index of staggering the time is as follows:1.1) draw client's typical curve: choose client's load data of recent at least 3 months, daily load curve in this period is carried out to superposed average calculating, matching forms client's typical load curve;1.2) ratio of computing client year production added value and year power consumption, obtains client's unit quantity of electricity production added value;1.3) ratio of the computing client Yi Nianxiang government profits tax amount of money and year power consumption, obtains client's unit quantity of electricity profits tax;1.4) calculate the average of typical case day 8:00 to 22:00 client's load in the time and the ratio of standard deviation, obtain client's load fluctuation rate; Load fluctuation rate computing formula is as follows:In formula: f l-load fluctuation rate;P ithe typical load value an of-i moment point;The standard deviation of σ-load;The average of μ-load;1.5) computing client protective load: the actual load data in statistic procedure 1.1 in client's section access time, the arithmetic mean of 200 load point that calculating is minimum, formula is as follows:In formula: P sl-protective load;P mini-i minimum load point;1.6) computing client can limited load: client's typical load curve of drawing according to step 1.1, and computing formula is as follows:P ll-mor=(P pl-mor-P sl)×δ pP ll-mid=(P pl-mid-P sl)×δ pP ll-eve=(P pl-eve-P sl)×δ pIn formula: Pl l-mor, P ll-mid, P ll-evewhat represent respectively ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period early can limited load;P sl-protective load;P pl-mor, P pl-mid, P pl-everepresent respectively the early peak load of ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period;δ p-simultaneity factor;Step 2, keep away peak index and calculate:2.1), the client that obtains according to step 1 keeps away peak index parameters computing client and keeps away peak index initial value, formula is as follows:In formula: P ll-mor, P ll-mid, P ll-evewhat represent respectively ,Yao peak, peak ,Wan peak period early can limited load;E q-unit quantity of electricity production added value;T q-unit quantity of electricity profits tax;F l-load fluctuation rate;P q-client electricity price;2.2) arrange all clients and keep away just Value Data of peak index, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5, will keep away peak index initial value and be divided into 5 grades, be respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;2.3) judge that whether client's nature of production is continuous;2.4) one grade of processing is fallen in noncontinuity user's the peak index initial value of keeping away, calculate and keep away peak index; To continuity user, keep away peak exponential quantity constant;Step 3, the index of taking off calculate:3.1) calculate the exponential quantity initial value of taking off, formula is as follows: the index initial value of taking off=and can limited load;3.2) arrange all clients just Value Data of index of taking off, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5, the index initial value of taking off is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;3.3) according to client's typical load curve, computing client week is stopped rate, and formula is as follows:In formula: Q wdthe arithmetic mean of the load total amount of-Mon-Fri;Q wsthe arithmetic mean of the load total amount on Sunday-Saturday;Q sl-protective load load the total amount of a day;3.4) to week the rate of stopping be greater than 0.3 and be less than 0.7 the client index initial value of taking off and fall two grades of processing; To week the rate of stopping be greater than and equal 0.7 the client index initial value of taking off and fall one grade of processing, to week the rate of stopping be less than and to equal 0.3 the client index initial value of taking off constant;Step 4, the index of staggering the time calculate:4.1) calculate the exponential quantity initial value of staggering the time, formula is as follows: the index initial value=deferrable load of staggering the time;4.2) add up all clients index initial value of staggering the time, use K-means clustering methodology, get K=5, the index of staggering the time is divided into 5 grades, is respectively excellent, good, moderate, general, poor;4.3) the index result of staggering the time does not adjust, identical with initial value.
- As claimed in claim 1 the client based on ordered electric wrong, keep away the peak effect evaluation method of rationing the power supply, it is characterized in that described simultaneity factor δ pget 0.8.
- As claimed in claim 1 the client based on ordered electric wrong, keep away the peak effect evaluation method of rationing the power supply, it is characterized in that, described morning of the peak ,Yao peak ,Wan peak period is respectively: 8:00-12:00,12:00-17:00,17:00-22:00.
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CN105870922A (en) * | 2016-05-13 | 2016-08-17 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Valley electricity price regulating and control method for guiding private electric vehicle clustered time-difference responses |
CN110837964A (en) * | 2019-11-06 | 2020-02-25 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | User electricity utilization grade evaluation method and ordered power supply method thereof |
CN112488738A (en) * | 2020-12-16 | 2021-03-12 | 甘肃同兴智能科技发展有限责任公司 | Method and equipment for identifying resident vacant residents based on electric power big data |
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Cited By (6)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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CN105825298A (en) * | 2016-03-14 | 2016-08-03 | 梁海东 | Electric network metering early-warning system and method based on load characteristic pre-estimation |
CN105825298B (en) * | 2016-03-14 | 2020-05-01 | 梁海东 | Power grid metering early warning system and method based on load characteristic estimation |
CN105870922A (en) * | 2016-05-13 | 2016-08-17 | 哈尔滨工业大学 | Valley electricity price regulating and control method for guiding private electric vehicle clustered time-difference responses |
CN110837964A (en) * | 2019-11-06 | 2020-02-25 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | User electricity utilization grade evaluation method and ordered power supply method thereof |
CN112488738A (en) * | 2020-12-16 | 2021-03-12 | 甘肃同兴智能科技发展有限责任公司 | Method and equipment for identifying resident vacant residents based on electric power big data |
CN112488738B (en) * | 2020-12-16 | 2024-02-27 | 甘肃同兴智能科技发展有限责任公司 | Resident vacant resident identification method and equipment based on electric power big data |
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