CN107909477B - Power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method - Google Patents

Power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method Download PDF

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CN107909477B
CN107909477B CN201711162731.6A CN201711162731A CN107909477B CN 107909477 B CN107909477 B CN 107909477B CN 201711162731 A CN201711162731 A CN 201711162731A CN 107909477 B CN107909477 B CN 107909477B
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赵红生
邹其
游大海
杜剑
徐恒
赵雄光
刘恒玮
王博
魏聪
徐小琴
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Huazhong University of Science and Technology
State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Economic and Technological Research Institute of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
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Abstract

A power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method includes determining basic information of a power network to be planned and a project to be built, determining an objective function taking comprehensive benefits as an investment combination optimization model, determining project investment constraints of the investment combination optimization model, and finally building and solving the investment combination optimization model. The design introduces a project urgency index, a reliability benefit coefficient and a project net present value index, considers the urgency degree of different project constructions and the difference of the importance degree of safe and reliable power supply of a power grid, and therefore effectively solves the one-sided problem of an optimization result.

Description

Power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power transmission network planning, and particularly relates to a power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method.
Background
With the rapid development of economy, the power demand is also increasing, which puts higher demands on the power supply capacity and the power supply reliability of the power grid. Under the new trend of economic development, more uncertainties are brought to the operation and development of a power system by economic structure adjustment, power transmission and distribution price mechanism reformation, power selling side reformation and large amount of new energy access. In the face of more severe development situations, power grid planning becomes more and more important. The planning department of the power grid company, as the undertaker of the planning work of the power transmission network, has a huge number of planning projects to be selected, and has already been subjected to feasibility analysis of the design department, but the investment capital is limited, so the investment of the selection needs to be carried out.
At present, project selection in engineering practice basically depends on expert experience, but as planning projects to be selected are more and more, scientific and reasonable selection of the project to be selected is more and more difficult only depending on the expert experience, and the existing research method is not enough to deal with the optimal work of the planning projects to be selected. The research on the optimization model of the investment portfolio of the power grid construction project [ J ]. the power in east China, 2008, 36(10):5-8 constructs the optimization model of the investment portfolio of the power grid construction project with the goal of maximizing the net present value of the investment portfolio of the project, the model only considers the economy of the project portfolio, neglects other benefits and has single optimal goal; the literature is based on the optimized ordering [ D ] of the power grid construction project of the multi-attribute decision-making, North China Power university (Beijing), North China Power university, 2012 proposes a two-stage power grid construction project optimization method, the first stage forms a preliminary pre-selection ordering scheme based on the urgency of the project, the method only takes the urgency as the preferred standard, the standard is too single, and the pre-selection ordering scheme is limited, so that a non-global optimal solution may occur; the literature power grid engineering investment evaluation and combined optimization research [ D ]. north China power university (beijing), north China power university 2015, although comprehensively considering economy and reliability, does not consider differences between projects in a processing mode of multiplying project capacity by maximum power shortage cost as reliability benefit, ignores urgent and urgent degree differences of project construction, and may result in one-sidedness of a preferred result. Therefore, a more scientific and effective investment portfolio optimization method is needed to select investment for the item to be selected so as to meet the demand of load power supply.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the one-sidedness problem of the optimization result in the prior art and provides a scientific, reasonable and comprehensive optimization method for the investment combination of the power transmission network planning project.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method sequentially comprises the following steps:
step A, determining basic information of a power grid to be planned and a project to be built;
step B, determining an objective function of the investment portfolio optimization model:
Figure BDA0001475527670000021
in the formula, W is the overall efficiency, lambda1In order to provide a weight for the reliability benefit,
Figure BDA0001475527670000022
for reliability benefit, λ2In order to weigh the economic benefits, the weight of the economic benefits,
Figure BDA0001475527670000023
for economic benefit, n is the number of items to be selected, xiA decision variable for item i with a value of 1 indicating that the item is selected, a value of 0 indicating that the item is not selected, R is a reliability benefit coefficient, UiIs the urgency of item i, ciSupply/transmission capacity for item i, NPViIs the net present value of item i;
step C, determining project investment constraints of the investment portfolio optimization model;
and D, establishing and solving an investment portfolio optimization model.
In step B, the item urgency UiIs represented by the following formulaAnd calculating to obtain:
Figure BDA0001475527670000024
in the formula,. DELTA.SiPlanning the horizontal annual transmission capacity deficit for the area relevant to the line project i, S0iPlanning the transmission capacity of a reference year for the area relevant to the line project i, wherein L is a line project set,
Figure BDA0001475527670000025
for planning horizontal annual capacity-load ratio shortage of areas related to k-voltage class transformer substation project i, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the k voltage class capacity-to-load ratio, TSkAnd the set of the to-be-built substation projects with the voltage level of k is obtained.
In the step C, the project investment constraints comprise investment fund constraints, mandatory construction project constraints, mutually exclusive project constraints, dependent project constraints, simultaneous project constraints and capacity-to-load ratio constraints.
The investment capital constraints are:
Figure BDA0001475527670000026
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001475527670000031
in order to be the investment cost of the project i,
Figure BDA0001475527670000032
the total investment capital;
the mandatory construction project constraints are:
xi＝1
in the formula, i belongs to F, and F is a forced construction project set;
the mutually exclusive item constraint is:
xi+xj≤1
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to M, and M is a mutually exclusive item set;
the dependent item constraints are:
xi-xj≥0
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to S, and S is a dependent item set;
the simultaneity project constraint is:
xi＝xj
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to E, and E is a simultaneity item set;
the capacity-to-load ratio constraint is:
Figure BDA0001475527670000033
in the formula, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the capacitance-to-load ratio of the k voltage class, thetakIs the upper limit of the reasonable interval of the capacity-load ratio of the k voltage class,
Figure BDA0001475527670000034
planning the transformation capacity of a reference year for the k voltage class of the power grid to be planned, LkPlanning the horizontal year load power, TS, for the k voltage class of the grid to be plannedkAnd the set of the to-be-built substation projects with the voltage level of k is obtained.
In the step A, the basic information comprises planning reference annual capacity of the power grid to be planned, planning horizontal annual load power of the power grid to be planned, capacity of a project to be selected, investment cost of the project to be selected, urgency of the project to be selected and net present value of the project to be selected.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the method for optimizing the investment portfolio of the power transmission network planning project comprehensively considers the reliability benefit and the economic benefit by taking the comprehensive benefit as the objective function of an investment portfolio optimization model, introduces the project urgency index, the reliability benefit coefficient and the project net present value index, converts the project capacity into the reliability benefit, and considers the difference between the urgency degree of different project construction and the important degree of safe and reliable power supply of a power grid, thereby more scientifically and reasonably balancing the reliability benefit and avoiding the generation of the optimization result one-sidedness problem. Therefore, the method can effectively solve the one-sided problem of the optimization result.
2. The project investment constraint of the investment portfolio optimization model in the power transmission network planning project investment portfolio optimization method considers the capacity-to-load ratio constraint of the power grid to be planned in the planning horizontal year, thereby ensuring that the power supply capacity of the planning scheme can meet the requirement. Therefore, the invention ensures that the power supply capacity of the planning scheme meets the requirements.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to specific embodiments.
A power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method sequentially comprises the following steps:
step A, determining basic information of a power grid to be planned and a project to be built;
step B, determining an objective function of the investment portfolio optimization model:
Figure BDA0001475527670000041
in the formula, W is the overall efficiency, lambda1In order to provide a weight for the reliability benefit,
Figure BDA0001475527670000042
for reliability benefit, λ2In order to weigh the economic benefits, the weight of the economic benefits,
Figure BDA0001475527670000043
for economic benefit, n is the number of items to be selected, xiA decision variable for item i with a value of 1 indicating that the item is selected, a value of 0 indicating that the item is not selected, R is a reliability benefit coefficient, UiIs the urgency of item i, ciSupply/transmission capacity for item i, NPViIs the net present value of item i;
step C, determining project investment constraints of the investment portfolio optimization model;
and D, establishing and solving an investment portfolio optimization model.
In step B, the item urgency UiCalculated by the following formulaTo:
Figure BDA0001475527670000044
in the formula,. DELTA.SiPlanning the horizontal annual transmission capacity deficit for the area relevant to the line project i, S0iPlanning the transmission capacity of a reference year for the area relevant to the line project i, wherein L is a line project set,
Figure BDA0001475527670000045
for planning horizontal annual capacity-load ratio shortage of areas related to k-voltage class transformer substation project i, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the k voltage class capacity-to-load ratio, TSkAnd the set of the to-be-built substation projects with the voltage level of k is obtained.
In the step C, the project investment constraints comprise investment fund constraints, mandatory construction project constraints, mutually exclusive project constraints, dependent project constraints, simultaneous project constraints and capacity-to-load ratio constraints.
The investment capital constraints are:
Figure BDA0001475527670000051
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001475527670000052
in order to be the investment cost of the project i,
Figure BDA0001475527670000053
the total investment capital;
the mandatory construction project constraints are:
xi＝1
in the formula, i belongs to F, and F is a forced construction project set;
the mutually exclusive item constraint is:
xi+xj≤1
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to M, and M is a mutually exclusive item set;
the dependent item constraints are:
xi-xj≥0
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to S, and S is a dependent item set;
the simultaneity project constraint is:
xi＝xj
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to E, and E is a simultaneity item set;
the capacity-to-load ratio constraint is:
Figure BDA0001475527670000054
in the formula, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the capacitance-to-load ratio of the k voltage class, thetakIs the upper limit of the reasonable interval of the capacity-load ratio of the k voltage class,
Figure BDA0001475527670000055
planning the transformation capacity of a reference year for the k voltage class of the power grid to be planned, LkPlanning the horizontal year load power, TS, for the k voltage class of the grid to be plannedkAnd the set of the to-be-built substation projects with the voltage level of k is obtained.
In the step A, the basic information comprises planning reference annual capacity of the power grid to be planned, planning horizontal annual load power of the power grid to be planned, capacity of a project to be selected, investment cost of the project to be selected, urgency of the project to be selected and net present value of the project to be selected.
The principle of the invention is illustrated as follows:
the optimization method provided by the invention introduces the item urgency and the item net present value to respectively measure the reliability benefit and the economic benefit, takes the comprehensive benefit as an optimization model objective function, respectively considers the investment capital constraint, the item relevance constraint and the capacity-to-load ratio constraint, and establishes and solves the combined optimization model to obtain the optimal item investment combination. The method has objective, reasonable and comprehensive results, and provides reference for project investment decision of a power grid planning department.
The parameters used in the present invention are illustrated below:
reference annual variable capacitor for planning power grid to be plannedQuantity: the parameter needs to respectively count the data of different voltage grades of the power grid to be planned, and the data are used
Figure BDA0001475527670000061
The transformation capacity of the k voltage class planning reference year is shown.
The planning of horizontal annual load power of the power grid to be planned: the parameter is obtained from the statistical data of different voltage grades of the power grid to be planned and is LkRepresenting the k voltage class planning the horizontal year load. The data needs to be obtained by load prediction of the power grid through data collection, investigation and analysis according to the national power grid development planning.
Capacity of items to be selected: the parameter is the rated power supply capacity of the substation project or the rated transmission capacity of the line project, using ciIndicating the capacity of item i. This data can be obtained from a feasibility report for the project.
Investment cost of the project to be selected: the parameter is the initial investment cost of the project, including the total cost actually paid when the investment is obtained, including the related fees such as tax, commission charge and the like
Figure BDA0001475527670000062
Representing the investment cost of item i. This data can be obtained from project feasibility reports.
Urgency of the item to be selected: the parameter refers to the urgent urgency degree of project construction, the stronger the urgency of the project, the heavier the demand degree of a power grid for the project, the more important the project is for safe and reliable power supply of the power grid, and different calculation methods are adopted for line projects and substation projects.
The net present value of the item to be selected is as follows: the parameter is the algebraic sum of net cash flow per year calculated according to industry standard discount rate or other set discount rate in the whole life cycle of the project, and NPV is usediRepresenting the net present value of item i. The net present value is an absolute positive indicator that reflects the profitability of the project investment, i.e., a project portfolio with a high net present value should be selected when performing long-term investment decision analysis. The net present value takes the capital time value into consideration, and the evaluation of the investment economy is enhanced; clear cash taking into account the overall processThe flow rate reflects the unification of the fluidity and the profitability; the investment risk is considered, the high discount rate is adopted when the risk is large, and the low discount rate is adopted when the risk is small. This data can be obtained from project feasibility reports.
The reliability benefit is as follows: the parameter refers to the fact that the construction of a project increases the power supply capacity or the power transmission capacity of a power transmission network, and the reliability benefit coefficient and the project urgency are adopted for measuring.
The reliability benefit coefficient is as follows: this parameter refers to the reliability benefit (unit: element/MW) that the unit of power capacity of the project adds to the system. The construction of the project brings the increase of the power transmission capacity or the power supply capacity and the enhancement of the safety and the reliability to the system, so the reliability benefit can be reflected by the power supply capacity or the power transmission capacity of the planning project. The reliability benefit coefficient in the invention has the function of converting the capacity into the reliability benefit.
Economic benefits are as follows: and the economic benefit brought to the system by the construction of the project is represented and is measured by the net present value of the project.
The constraints of the model of the invention are illustrated below:
and (4) investment capital restraint: the total investment cost of the investment project cannot exceed the total investment capital.
And (3) forcing construction project constraint: some projects may not have direct benefits or have low input and output after being put into production, but the put into production of the projects plays a crucial role in the safety and reliability of the power grid in view of the whole grid structure, and belongs to a project of mandatory construction.
Constraint of mutually exclusive items: two items cannot exist simultaneously.
Dependent item constraints: an item may only exist if another item exists.
Simultaneous item constraints: both items must be on at the same time or not.
Capacity-to-load ratio constraint: in order to ensure the power supply capacity of the power grid to be planned, the capacity-to-load ratio of the planned horizontal year must fall within a reasonable interval range specified by the guide rule of the planning and design of the urban power grid/the national power grid company enterprise standard [ M ]. China power publishing company, 2007 (the guide rule for short).
Example 1:
a power transmission network planning project investment combination optimization method is sequentially carried out according to the following steps:
step A, a certain power grid company carries out load prediction and power supply planning work on the province according to the development planning of a national power grid through data collection and investigation analysis, power transmission network planning research is carried out on the basis, a batch of power transmission network planning projects to be built are obtained, and through feasibility research of a design department, detailed analysis is carried out on the construction necessity, trend calculation, stable calculation, technical economy and the like of the projects, so that the annual capacity of a power grid planning standard to be planned, the horizontal annual load power of the power grid planning to be planned, the capacity of projects to be selected, the investment cost of the projects to be selected, the urgency of the projects to be selected and the net present value index of the projects to be selected are obtained (see tables 1 and 2):
TABLE 1 basic information of the Power saving network
Figure BDA0001475527670000071
Table 2 information of the power transmission network planning project to be built in the province
Figure BDA0001475527670000081
Step B, determining an objective function of the investment portfolio optimization model:
Figure BDA0001475527670000082
Figure BDA0001475527670000083
in the formula, W is the overall efficiency, lambda10.7, for reliability benefit weighting,
Figure BDA0001475527670000084
for reliability benefit, λ20.3, is the economic benefit weight,
Figure BDA0001475527670000085
for economic benefit, n is 16, the number of items to be selected, xiA decision variable for item i with a value of 1 indicating that the item is selected, a value of 0 indicating that the item is not selected, R-5 is a reliability benefit coefficient, UiIs the urgency of item i, ciSupply capacity for item i, NPViIs the net present value of item i, Δ SiPlanning the horizontal annual transmission capacity deficit for the area relevant to the line project i, S0iPlanning the transmission capacity of a reference year for the area relevant to the line project i, wherein L is a line project set,
Figure BDA0001475527670000091
for planning horizontal annual capacity-load ratio shortage of areas related to k-voltage class transformer substation project i, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the k voltage class capacity-to-load ratio, TSkThe method comprises the following steps of (1) setting a to-be-built substation project set of a k voltage grade;
step C, determining project investment constraints of the investment portfolio optimization model, wherein the project investment constraints comprise investment fund constraints, mandatory construction project constraints, mutually exclusive project constraints, dependent project constraints, simultaneous project constraints and capacity-to-load ratio constraints;
and (4) investment capital restraint:
Figure BDA0001475527670000092
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001475527670000093
in order to be the investment cost of the project i,
Figure BDA0001475527670000094
17 hundred million yuan, which is the total investment capital;
and (3) forcing construction project constraint:
xi＝1
in the formula, i belongs to F, F is a mandatory construction project set, and the mandatory construction projects in the embodiment are project 3 and project 13;
constraint of mutually exclusive items:
xi+xj≤1
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to M, M is a mutually exclusive item set, and no mutually exclusive item exists in the embodiment;
dependent item constraints:
xi-xj≥0
in the formula, (i, j) ∈ S, S is a set of dependent items, and in this embodiment, the dependent items include: item 10 (subordinate to item 1), item 13 (subordinate to item 2), item 16 (subordinate to item 6);
simultaneous item constraints:
xi＝xj
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to E, E is a set of simultaneous items, and no simultaneous item exists in the embodiment;
capacity-to-load ratio constraint:
Figure BDA0001475527670000101
in the formula, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the capacitance-to-load ratio of the k voltage class, thetakIs the upper limit of a reasonable interval of the capacitance-to-load ratio of the k voltage class, xiDecision variables for item i, ciFor the power supply capacity of the item i,
Figure BDA0001475527670000102
planning the transformation capacity of a reference year for the 220kV voltage class of the power grid to be planned,
Figure BDA0001475527670000103
planning the transformation capacity of a reference year for a 500kV voltage class of a power grid to be planned, L220kVPlanning the horizontal year load power L for the 220kV voltage class of the power grid to be planned500kVPlanning horizontal year load power, TS, for 500kV voltage class of power grid to be planned220kVSet of items, TS, of the substation to be built at a voltage level of 220kV500kVIs to be built at a voltage level of 500kVAnd (4) gathering substation projects.
Step D, the combined optimization model of this embodiment is:
Figure BDA0001475527670000104
Figure BDA0001475527670000105
xi＝1；i∈F,F＝{3,13}
Figure BDA0001475527670000106
xi-xj≥0；(i,j)∈S,S＝{(1,10),(2,13),(6,16)}。
Figure BDA0001475527670000107
Figure BDA0001475527670000108
Figure BDA0001475527670000109
the investment portfolio optimization model is solved by using the intlinprog function in matlab software, and the result is shown in table 3:
TABLE 3 results of calculation
Figure BDA00014755276700001010
Figure BDA0001475527670000111
To verify the effectiveness of the method of the present invention, the weights of the reliability benefits and the economic benefits are changed to obtain the calculation results described in table 4:
TABLE 4 results of different weight calculations
Weight of Investment construction project
λ1＝0.5，λ2＝0.5 2,3,4,5,8,11,13,15
λ1＝0.3，λ2＝0.7 1,2,3,4,5,6,10,11,12,13
As can be seen from tables 3 and 4:
1. weight of λ1＝0.7，λ2When the value is 0.3, the optimization result shows that the investment construction project is high in urgency, which is consistent with the premise of high reliability benefit weight;
2. after continuously reducing the reliability benefit weight and increasing the economic benefit weight, when lambda is1＝0.3，λ2When the value is 0.7, items with small urgency appear in the optimization result, for example, a 500kV substation selects item 6 with small investment urgency but large net present value, and items 15 and 16 in the 500kV line have high urgency, but because the investment cost is too high, the net present value is small, and the items 4 and 5 with small urgency are not selected for investment, which is consistent with the reduction of the importance of the reliability benefit on the premise of optimization.

Claims (3)

1. A method for optimizing investment portfolio of power transmission network planning project is characterized in that:
the method comprises the following steps in sequence:
step A, determining basic information of a power grid to be planned and a project to be built;
step B, determining an objective function of the investment portfolio optimization model:
Figure FDA0002353603570000011
Figure FDA0002353603570000012
in the formula, W is the overall efficiency, lambda1In order to provide a weight for the reliability benefit,
Figure FDA0002353603570000013
for reliability benefit, λ2In order to weigh the economic benefits, the weight of the economic benefits,
Figure FDA0002353603570000014
for economic benefit, n is the number of items to be selected, xiA decision variable for item i with a value of 1 indicating that the item is selected, a value of 0 indicating that the item is not selected, R is a reliability benefit coefficient, UiIs the urgency of item i, ciSupply/transmission capacity for item i, NPViIs the net present value of item i, Δ SiPlanning the horizontal annual transmission capacity deficit for the area relevant to the line project i, S0iPlanning the transmission capacity of a reference year for the area relevant to the line project i, wherein L is a line project set,
Figure FDA0002353603570000015
for planning horizontal annual capacity-load ratio shortage of areas related to k-voltage class transformer substation project i, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the k voltage class capacity-to-load ratio, TSkThe method comprises the following steps of (1) setting a to-be-built substation project set of a k voltage grade;
step C, determining project investment constraints of the combined optimization model, wherein the project investment constraints comprise investment fund constraints, mandatory construction project constraints, mutually exclusive project constraints, dependent project constraints, simultaneous project constraints and capacity-to-load ratio constraints;
and D, establishing and solving an investment portfolio optimization model.
2. The method for optimizing the investment portfolio of a power transmission network planning project according to claim 1, wherein:
the investment capital constraints are:
Figure FDA0002353603570000021
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0002353603570000022
in order to be the investment cost of the project i,
Figure FDA0002353603570000023
the total investment capital;
the mandatory construction project constraints are:
xi＝1
in the formula, i belongs to F, and F is a forced construction project set;
the mutually exclusive item constraint is:
xi+xj≤1
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to M, and M is a mutually exclusive item set;
the dependent item constraints are:
xi-xj≥0
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to S, and S is a dependent item set;
the simultaneity project constraint is:
xi＝xj
in the formula, (i, j) belongs to E, and E is a simultaneity item set;
the capacity-to-load ratio constraint is:
Figure FDA0002353603570000024
in the formula, gammakIs the lower limit of a reasonable interval of the capacitance-to-load ratio of the k voltage class, thetakIs the upper limit of the reasonable interval of the capacity-load ratio of the k voltage class,
Figure FDA0002353603570000025
planning the transformation capacity of a reference year for the k voltage class of the power grid to be planned, LkPlanning the horizontal year load power, TS, for the k voltage class of the grid to be plannedkAnd the set of the to-be-built substation projects with the voltage level of k is obtained.
3. The method for optimizing the investment portfolio of a power transmission network planning project according to claim 1, wherein:
in the step A, the basic information comprises planning reference annual capacity of the power grid to be planned, planning horizontal annual load power of the power grid to be planned, capacity of a project to be selected, investment cost of the project to be selected, urgency of the project to be selected and net present value of the project to be selected.
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