CN103475090A - Intelligent short-term transformer load prediction system and method - Google Patents
Intelligent short-term transformer load prediction system and method Download PDFInfo
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- CN103475090A CN103475090A CN2013103636565A CN201310363656A CN103475090A CN 103475090 A CN103475090 A CN 103475090A CN 2013103636565 A CN2013103636565 A CN 2013103636565A CN 201310363656 A CN201310363656 A CN 201310363656A CN 103475090 A CN103475090 A CN 103475090A
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Abstract
The invention discloses an intelligent short-term transformer load prediction system and method. The system comprises a transformer state monitoring device, an intelligent transformer load monitoring terminal and an intelligent transformer load management system, wherein the transformer state monitoring device is connected with the intelligent transformer load monitoring terminal, and the intelligent transformer load monitoring terminal is connected with the intelligent transformer load management system. The method comprises the following steps: (1) monitoring three-phase alternating current parameters, an ambient temperature, a top oil temperature and a winding temperature of a transformer in real time; (2) storing and transmitting data, wherein when the winding temperature exceeds a preset alarm threshold, an alarm device sends out an alarm signal; (3) predicting a short-term load of the transformer by utilizing historical data; (4) drawing a 30-minute safe current prediction curve of the short-term transformer load prediction result, and providing the 30-minute safe current prediction curve for a dispatch department. The prediction precision of the short-term load is effectively improved, so that a power grid can safely and reliably operate, and the decision basis is provided for scientific dispatch implemented by a power dispatching department.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the Load Prediction In Power Systems technical field, be specially a kind of transformer short term intelligent predicting system and method.
Background technology
The main task of electric power system is for all types of user provides economic, reliable and high-quality electric energy, should meet at any time user's workload demand and the requirement of part throttle characteristics.For this reason, in planning and design of power system, operational management and power market transaction, must a prediction accurately be arranged to variation and the part throttle characteristics of workload demand amount.
Power transformer (especially oil-immersed power transformer) is as the nucleus equipment in electric power system, and its operating load directly affects the ability to transmit electricity of whole piece electrical network.Transformer loads is predicted the important process as power system dispatching, electricity consumption, plan, planning every other day, can advance notice be proposed to generating, making generated output change can be pre-estimated, the arrangement generating start and stop of economical rationality, can predict and the defence accident simultaneously, for the state estimation of electrical network, safe early warning etc. provide important leverage, and under the Electricity Market Operation pattern, the precision of load prediction also is related to the economic interests of power department, and it has become a key areas in modern power industry system operation and management.
The way of conventional transformer short-term load forecasting, as load prediction method every other day, be in advance a calendar day complete load prediction every other day, establish electricity consumption plan a few days ago (comprising power purchase plan and generation schedule).Be historical load data used at least with day period interval to be measured one calendar day.And, in actual motion, the actual load on the same day, even be offset with generation is serious in the original plan, also can not be applied in the load prediction of next day.For example, conventional next day load forecasting method, using per quarter some time calendar day for example, as datum mark (at 16 o'clock in afternoon), the load value of prediction next day in full-time calendar days 96 point (every 15 minutes points), use this datum mark proxima luce (prox. luc) calendar day as Base day (being that the proxima luce (prox. luc) calendar day was from 0 o'clock to 24 o'clock), utilize this Base day or the Base day of comprising before the information on loads of several calendar days), and when the information of the known information on load of calendar day remaining hour (from 0 o'clock to 16 o'clock) it goes without doing prediction.The method does not utilize known information before datum mark to do the load prediction of next day, and the precision of the predicted value that it is done can be subject to certain impact.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is the problem existed in traditional load forecasting method, and the deficiency existed in order to overcome prior art, a kind of transformer short term intelligent predicting system and method is provided.
To achieve these goals, technical problem solved by the invention realizes by the following technical solutions:
A kind of transformer short term intelligent predicting system, comprise Transformer's Condition Monitoring device, transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal, Intelligent load management system for transformer; Described Transformer's Condition Monitoring device is connected with the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal; Described transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal is connected with Intelligent load management system for transformer.
Further, described Transformer's Condition Monitoring device comprises temperature monitoring module, time module ,Re road model algorithm module, three-phase alternating current monitoring modular, RS-485 communication module.
Further, be provided with warning device in described transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal.
A kind of method of transformer short term intelligent predicting comprises the following steps:
(1) by three-phase alternating current parameter, ambient temperature and the top oil temperature of the temperature monitoring module in the Transformer's Condition Monitoring device, three-phase alternating current monitoring modular Real-Time Monitoring transformer, go out the winding temperature of transformer simultaneously by hot road model algorithm module meter, the data parameters monitored is sent to Intelligent load management system for transformer by the RS-485 communication module;
(2) Intelligent load management system for transformer is stored the data that receive on one side, data message is sent to the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal on one side, when the data of received coiling group temperature surpass the alarming threshold value of setting in system, warning device in the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal will send alarm signal, prompting operation department processes in time, prevents that transformer from burning;
(3) Intelligent load management system for transformer by analysis expert storehouse combined with intelligent load prediction technology, is predicted the historical data of internal reservoir to the transformer short term;
(4) transformer short-term load forecasting result is depicted as to 30 minutes safe current prediction curves and offers traffic department, guarantee the electric power system reliability service.
beneficial effect
the present invention chooses forecast sample by intelligence, overcome the deficiency of existing load prediction technology, adopt advanced transformer loads intelligent analysis system, the real time data combined with intelligent load prediction technology such as the transformer operational factor by collecting, external environment condition parameter, carry out Accurate Prediction to the power transformer short term.Use the present invention not only can effectively improve the precision of short-term load forecasting, also can provide 30 minutes transformer safe operation overload multiple prediction curves to traffic department as required, make electrical network safer with reliably operation, for the science scheduling of power scheduling department provides decision-making foundation.
The accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is workflow diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, obviously, described embodiment is only the present invention's part embodiment, rather than whole embodiment.Embodiment based in the present invention, those of ordinary skills, not making under the creative work prerequisite the every other embodiment obtained, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of transformer short term intelligent predicting system, comprise Transformer's Condition Monitoring device, transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal, Intelligent load management system for transformer; Described Transformer's Condition Monitoring device is connected with the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal; Described transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal is connected with Intelligent load management system for transformer.
Further, described Transformer's Condition Monitoring device comprises temperature monitoring module, time module ,Re road model algorithm module, three-phase alternating current monitoring modular, RS-485 communication module.
Further, be provided with warning device in described transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal.
A kind of method of transformer short term intelligent predicting comprises the following steps:
(1) by three-phase alternating current parameter, ambient temperature and the top oil temperature of the temperature monitoring module in the Transformer's Condition Monitoring device, three-phase alternating current monitoring modular Real-Time Monitoring transformer, go out the winding temperature of transformer simultaneously by hot road model algorithm module meter, the data parameters monitored is sent to Intelligent load management system for transformer by the RS-485 communication module;
(2) Intelligent load management system for transformer is stored the data that receive on one side, data message is sent to the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal on one side, when the data of received coiling group temperature surpass the alarming threshold value of setting in system, warning device in the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal will send alarm signal, prompting operation department processes in time, prevents that transformer from burning;
(3) Intelligent load management system for transformer by analysis expert storehouse combined with intelligent load prediction technology, is predicted the historical data of internal reservoir to the transformer short term;
(4) transformer short-term load forecasting result is depicted as to 30 minutes safe current prediction curves and offers traffic department, guarantee the electric power system reliability service.
To those skilled in the art, obviously the invention is not restricted to the details of above-mentioned example embodiment, and in the situation that do not deviate from spirit of the present invention or essential characteristic, can realize the present invention with other concrete form.Therefore, no matter from which point, all should regard embodiment as exemplary, and be nonrestrictive, scope of the present invention is limited by claims rather than above-mentioned explanation, therefore is intended to include in the present invention dropping on the implication that is equal to important document of claim and all changes in scope.
In addition, be to be understood that, although this specification is described according to execution mode, but not each execution mode only comprises an independently technical scheme, this narrating mode of specification is only for clarity sake, those skilled in the art should make specification as a whole, and the technical scheme in each embodiment also can, through appropriate combination, form other execution modes that it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that.
Claims (4)
1. a transformer short term intelligent predicting system, is characterized in that, comprises Transformer's Condition Monitoring device, transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal, Intelligent load management system for transformer; Described Transformer's Condition Monitoring device is connected with the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal; Described transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal is connected with Intelligent load management system for transformer.
2. a kind of transformer short term intelligent predicting system according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described Transformer's Condition Monitoring device comprises temperature monitoring module, time module ,Re road model algorithm module, three-phase alternating current monitoring modular, RS-485 communication module.
3. a kind of transformer short term intelligent predicting system according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal, is provided with warning device.
4. the method for a transformer short term intelligent predicting, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
(1) by three-phase alternating current parameter, ambient temperature and the top oil temperature of the temperature monitoring module in the Transformer's Condition Monitoring device, three-phase alternating current monitoring modular Real-Time Monitoring transformer, go out the winding temperature of transformer simultaneously by hot road model algorithm module meter, the data parameters monitored is sent to Intelligent load management system for transformer by the RS-485 communication module;
(2) Intelligent load management system for transformer is stored the data that receive on one side, data message is sent to the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal on one side, when the data of received coiling group temperature surpass the alarming threshold value of setting in system, warning device in the transformer load intelligent monitoring terminal will send alarm signal, prompting operation department processes in time, prevents that transformer from burning;
(3) Intelligent load management system for transformer by analysis expert storehouse combined with intelligent load prediction technology, is predicted the historical data of internal reservoir to the transformer short term;
(4) transformer short-term load forecasting result is depicted as to 30 minutes safe current prediction curves and offers traffic department, guarantee the electric power system reliability service.
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| CN2013103636565A CN103475090A (en) | 2013-08-20 | 2013-08-20 | Intelligent short-term transformer load prediction system and method |
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103915901A (en) * | 2014-04-21 | 2014-07-09 | 内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司包头供电局 | Transformer area load management system |
| CN104165660A (en) * | 2014-09-10 | 2014-11-26 | 上海海能信息科技有限公司 | Intelligent distribution and transformation monitoring terminal capable of calculating winding temperature |
| CN107658906A (en) * | 2017-09-05 | 2018-02-02 | 珠海易能科技有限公司 | A kind of system and method for intelligent control transformer |
| CN112580187A (en) * | 2020-11-10 | 2021-03-30 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Dry-type transformer overheating early warning method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN115327445A (en) * | 2022-08-11 | 2022-11-11 | 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Method and system for judging abnormity of grounding currents of iron core and clamping piece of converter transformer |
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| US7848120B2 (en) * | 2008-12-05 | 2010-12-07 | Korea Electric Power Corporation | Voltage-sourced HVDC system with modulation function |
| CN102427218A (en) * | 2011-10-28 | 2012-04-25 | 武汉供电公司变电检修中心 | Transformer short period overload capability assessment system based on artificial intelligence technology |
| CN102957208A (en) * | 2012-09-19 | 2013-03-06 | 北开电气集团有限公司 | Intelligent monitoring device of power distribution transformer and control method thereof |
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2013
- 2013-08-20 CN CN2013103636565A patent/CN103475090A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US7848120B2 (en) * | 2008-12-05 | 2010-12-07 | Korea Electric Power Corporation | Voltage-sourced HVDC system with modulation function |
| CN102427218A (en) * | 2011-10-28 | 2012-04-25 | 武汉供电公司变电检修中心 | Transformer short period overload capability assessment system based on artificial intelligence technology |
| CN102957208A (en) * | 2012-09-19 | 2013-03-06 | 北开电气集团有限公司 | Intelligent monitoring device of power distribution transformer and control method thereof |
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103915901A (en) * | 2014-04-21 | 2014-07-09 | 内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司包头供电局 | Transformer area load management system |
| CN104165660A (en) * | 2014-09-10 | 2014-11-26 | 上海海能信息科技有限公司 | Intelligent distribution and transformation monitoring terminal capable of calculating winding temperature |
| CN104165660B (en) * | 2014-09-10 | 2019-01-11 | 上海海能信息科技有限公司 | A kind of distribution transforming intelligent monitoring terminal calculating winding temperature |
| CN107658906A (en) * | 2017-09-05 | 2018-02-02 | 珠海易能科技有限公司 | A kind of system and method for intelligent control transformer |
| CN112580187A (en) * | 2020-11-10 | 2021-03-30 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Dry-type transformer overheating early warning method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN115327445A (en) * | 2022-08-11 | 2022-11-11 | 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Method and system for judging abnormity of grounding currents of iron core and clamping piece of converter transformer |
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Application publication date: 20131225 |