CN103400337A - Method for determining early-warning index of mountain torrent disaster in small watershed - Google Patents
Method for determining early-warning index of mountain torrent disaster in small watershed Download PDFInfo
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- CN103400337A CN103400337A CN2013103330121A CN201310333012A CN103400337A CN 103400337 A CN103400337 A CN 103400337A CN 2013103330121 A CN2013103330121 A CN 2013103330121A CN 201310333012 A CN201310333012 A CN 201310333012A CN 103400337 A CN103400337 A CN 103400337A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for determining an early-warning index of a mountain torrent disaster in a small watershed, comprising the following steps of (1) assuming a certain frequency rainfall; (2) calculating a corresponding assumed peak discharge through the assumed rainfall at the step one; (3) comparing the calculated assumed peak discharge with a warning discharge, and determining a rainfall which corresponds to the warning discharge; (4) determining a point rainfall according to the rainfall which is obtained at the step three and corresponds to the warning discharge; and (5) determining a warning rainfall and a critical rainfall according to the point rainfall obtained at the step four. By the adoption of the method for determining the early-warning index of the mountain torrent disaster in the small watershed, as no hydrologic stations or hydrologic materials basically exist in the small watershed where mountain torrent disasters easily occur at present, the problems such as the high false warning rate of a mountain torrent disaster early-warning system caused by the fact that the early-warning index of the mountain torrent disaster is generally determined based on experience with much arbitrariness are solved; and meanwhile, the early-warning index of a region with hydrologic data can be verified according to the method, so that the early-warning precision is improved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to mountain flood forecasting technique field, relate in particular to a kind of small watershed mountain flood warning index and determine method.
Background technology
Forewarning Decision System of Mountain Torrent is an important non-engineering measure of control mountain flood, system by the warning rainfall that sets in advance, critical rainfall as warning index, when the actual measurement rainfall reaches warning index, make corresponding Forewarning Measures, the definite of warning index is the key whether Forewarning Decision System of Mountain Torrent can normally play a role.But relative developed country is less for China hydrometric station, the small watershed easily sent out of mountain flood particularly, therefore at definite mountain flood warning index, generally rely on empirical method, with very large randomness, be embodied in Forewarning Decision System of Mountain Torrent is exactly that rate of false alarm is higher, for this reason, by the present invention, can solve small watershed, particularly the problem identificatioin of no data small watershed mountain flood warning index.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention: provide a kind of small watershed mountain flood warning index to determine method, to solve the small watershed of easily sending out in mountain flood at present, due to essentially no hydrometric station or hydrologic data, the general empirical method that relies on when definite mountain flood warning index, with very large randomness, there are the problems such as Forewarning Decision System of Mountain Torrent rate of false alarm height.
Technical solution of the present invention:
A kind of small watershed mountain flood warning index is determined method, and it comprises the steps:
Step 1, suppose the quantity of precipitation of a certain frequency;
Step 2, by the precipitation gage of step 1 hypothesis, calculate corresponding hypothesis crest discharge;
Step 3, the hypothesis crest discharge that will calculate and Alarm flow relatively, are determined the quantity of precipitation corresponding with Alarm flow;
Step 4, the quantity of precipitation corresponding with Alarm flow that draws according to step 3, determine the some rainfall amount;
Step 5, the some rainfall amount that obtains according to step 4 are determined warning rainfall and critical rainfall.
The described precipitation method for determination of amount corresponding with Alarm flow of step 3 is: suppose that crest discharge is greater than Alarm flow, reduce the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis, then the computation process of repeating step 2; Suppose that crest discharge is less than Alarm flow, increase the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis, then the computation process of repeating step 2; Suppose that crest discharge and Alarm flow equate that the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis is the quantity of precipitation corresponding with Alarm flow.
Described some rainfall amount of step 4 is 10 minutes, the some rainfall amount of 1,3,6,12,24 hour or other periods.
Beneficial effect of the present invention:
the present invention adopts the quantity of precipitation of supposing in advance a certain frequency, then pass through the quantity of precipitation of the certain frequency of supposing as initial conditions, " the corresponding crest discharge of quantity of precipitation that Storm and flood calculation handbook or similar hydrology material computation go out to suppose by early warning ground, the corresponding crest discharge of the quantity of precipitation of Alarm flow and hypothesis is compared, determine the corresponding quantity of precipitation of Alarm flow, by the corresponding quantity of precipitation of Alarm flow, determine 10 minutes, 1, 3, 6, 12, the point rainfall amount of 24 hours or other periods, thereby determine the warning indexs such as the required warning rainfall of mountain flood early warning and critical rainfall, realize accurate early warning, solved the small watershed of easily sending out in mountain flood at present, due to essentially no hydrometric station or hydrologic data, the general empirical method that relies on when definite mountain flood warning index, with very large randomness, there are the problems such as Forewarning Decision System of Mountain Torrent rate of false alarm height, adopt simultaneously the present invention also can verify the mountain flood warning index that hydrometric station or the complete area of hydrologic data are arranged, to improve its forecast accuracy.
Embodiment:
A kind of small watershed mountain flood warning index is determined method, and it comprises the steps:
Step 1, suppose the quantity of precipitation of a certain frequency, can suppose arbitrarily the quantity of precipitation of a certain frequency, namely suppose the rainfall value in a certain period;
Step 2, the hypothesis crest discharge of calculating correspondence by the precipitation gage of hypothesis, according to " flood heavy rain reckoner " or the similar hydrologic data of each province's establishment, look into the some face relation of calculating required early warning ground rainstorm statistics parameter, isogram, short duration Rain Intensity Formula Based, heavy rain, design storm amount and the discharge process on required early warning ground in calculating, determine the corresponding crest discharge of quantity of precipitation of the certain frequency of hypothesis;
Step 3, crest discharge and Alarm flow that step 2 is calculated compare, and determine the corresponding quantity of precipitation of Alarm flow; Definite basic data by the actual measurement of early warning ground of Alarm flow such as section data, warning line value, water level value etc. calculate;
Step 4, according to the corresponding quantity of precipitation of Alarm flow, by " flood heavy rain reckoner " or similar hydrologic data, determine 10 minutes, the some rainfall amount of 1,3,6,12,24 hour or other periods;
Step 5, according to a rainfall amount, determine the warning indexs such as the warning rainfall on early warning ground and critical rainfall, thereby realize accurate early warning.
The described precipitation method for determination of amount corresponding with Alarm flow of step 3 is: suppose that crest discharge is greater than Alarm flow, reduce the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis, then the computation process of repeating step 2; Suppose that crest discharge is less than Alarm flow, increase the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis, then the computation process of repeating step 2; Suppose that crest discharge and Alarm flow equate that the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis is the quantity of precipitation corresponding with Alarm flow.
Claims (3)
1. a small watershed mountain flood warning index is determined method, and it comprises the steps:
Step 1, suppose the quantity of precipitation of a certain frequency;
Step 2, by the precipitation gage of step 1 hypothesis, calculate corresponding hypothesis crest discharge;
Step 3, the hypothesis crest discharge that will calculate and Alarm flow relatively, are determined the quantity of precipitation corresponding with Alarm flow;
Step 4, the quantity of precipitation corresponding with Alarm flow that draws according to step 3, determine the some rainfall amount;
Step 5, the some rainfall amount that obtains according to step 4 are determined warning rainfall and critical rainfall.
2. a kind of small watershed mountain flood warning index according to claim 1 is determined method, it is characterized in that: the described precipitation method for determination of amount corresponding with Alarm flow of step 3 is: suppose that crest discharge is greater than Alarm flow, reduce the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis, then the computation process of repeating step 2; Suppose that crest discharge is less than Alarm flow, increase the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis, then the computation process of repeating step 2; Suppose that crest discharge and Alarm flow equate that the quantity of precipitation of step 1 hypothesis is the quantity of precipitation corresponding with Alarm flow.
3. a kind of small watershed mountain flood warning index according to claim 1 is determined method, it is characterized in that: described some rainfall amount of step 4 is the some rainfall amount of 10 minutes, 1,3,6,12,24 hour or other periods.
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| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| CN2013103330121A CN103400337A (en) | 2013-08-02 | 2013-08-02 | Method for determining early-warning index of mountain torrent disaster in small watershed |
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| CN2013103330121A CN103400337A (en) | 2013-08-02 | 2013-08-02 | Method for determining early-warning index of mountain torrent disaster in small watershed |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104700577A (en) * | 2015-03-16 | 2015-06-10 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Precipitation early warning method and application thereof in geological disaster |
| CN108171003A (en) * | 2017-12-25 | 2018-06-15 | 贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司 | A kind of Flood Forecasting Method based on multiple proportions algorithm |
| CN111639826A (en) * | 2020-07-06 | 2020-09-08 | 贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司 | Flood early warning grade division and early warning method |
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| US20080055096A1 (en) * | 2006-06-09 | 2008-03-06 | Aylward James A | Real-time modeling analysis of hazards data with large numbers of locations and with customized reporting and web-based delivery |
| CN103136596A (en) * | 2013-01-25 | 2013-06-05 | 成都信息工程学院 | Mountain flood disaster monitoring and early-warning business platform system in medium or small rivers |
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2013
- 2013-08-02 CN CN2013103330121A patent/CN103400337A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20080055096A1 (en) * | 2006-06-09 | 2008-03-06 | Aylward James A | Real-time modeling analysis of hazards data with large numbers of locations and with customized reporting and web-based delivery |
| CN103136596A (en) * | 2013-01-25 | 2013-06-05 | 成都信息工程学院 | Mountain flood disaster monitoring and early-warning business platform system in medium or small rivers |
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| 叶勇等: "浙江省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量确定方法分析", 《水文》 * |
| 李昌志等: "山洪灾害预警指标确定方法", 《中国水利》 * |
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104700577A (en) * | 2015-03-16 | 2015-06-10 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | Precipitation early warning method and application thereof in geological disaster |
| CN104700577B (en) * | 2015-03-16 | 2017-08-11 | 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所 | A kind of precipitation method for early warning and its application in geological disaster |
| CN108171003A (en) * | 2017-12-25 | 2018-06-15 | 贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司 | A kind of Flood Forecasting Method based on multiple proportions algorithm |
| CN108171003B (en) * | 2017-12-25 | 2022-06-07 | 贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司 | Flood forecasting method based on multiple ratio algorithm |
| CN111639826A (en) * | 2020-07-06 | 2020-09-08 | 贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司 | Flood early warning grade division and early warning method |
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Application publication date: 20131120 |
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