CN108171003B - Flood forecasting method based on multiple ratio algorithm - Google Patents
Flood forecasting method based on multiple ratio algorithm Download PDFInfo
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- CN108171003B CN108171003B CN201711422059.XA CN201711422059A CN108171003B CN 108171003 B CN108171003 B CN 108171003B CN 201711422059 A CN201711422059 A CN 201711422059A CN 108171003 B CN108171003 B CN 108171003B
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- G—PHYSICS
- G16—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
- G16Z—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G16Z99/00—Subject matter not provided for in other main groups of this subclass
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
Abstract
The invention discloses a flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm, which comprises the following steps: step 1, calculating a current flow value of a target small watershed; step 2, calculating a flow value in an upstream forecast period according to actually measured lattice point rainfall data; step 3, comparing the current flow value of the target small basin with the flow value in the forecast period; step 4, when the flow value in the forecast period exceeds the current flow value of the target small watershed by more than one time, early warning information is sent out through a flood control forecast system; the problem that in the prior art, the mountain torrent disaster early warning monitors the current rainfall according to the rainfall station and determines whether to send out early warning information or not compared with the critical rainfall is solved; as small to medium rain drops at the upper reaches of a plurality of small watersheds, the generated rainfall and flow change are not enough to trigger the alarm of the flood early warning system, when the instantaneous flow suddenly rises by more than one time, the problems of torrential flood burst, untimely prevention of tourists in a river channel, casualties and the like are caused.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the flood forecasting technology, and particularly relates to a flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm.
Background art:
mountain torrents are frequently generated in mountain areas. The mountain and hill area of China occupies more than 2/3 of the area of the national soil, three steps are presented from west to east, the ridge and valley height difference reaches more than 2000 meters in slope zones and mountain systems of all steps and edge zones thereof, the slope of the mountain is 30 degrees to 50 degrees, the river bed is steeper than that, and mountain flood disasters are easy to form due to multiple drops and waterfalls.
Mountain torrent disasters are main disaster species causing death due to flood disasters in China: 1900-3700 people die in 90 years in the 20 th century because of mountain torrent disasters every year in China, accounting for about 62% -69% of the death rate caused by flood disasters; in 2000-2010, the average number of mountain torrent disaster deaths is 1079 per year, which accounts for 65-92% of the number of flood disaster deaths (wherein 92% in 2010, the number of deaths missing 3887); 400 people die in every year of mountain torrent disasters in 2011-2015, accounting for 60-75% of the death people in flood disasters.
The prevention of mountain torrent damage is a difficult point and a weak link of flood prevention work in China. The mountain torrents have strong burst property, violent incoming trend, steep rising and falling, short duration of one mountain torrent process, small and dispersed disaster range, but are easy to cause casualties. The national flood control and drought control headquarters emphasizes that prevention and control of mountain torrent disasters are mainly aimed at reducing casualties to the maximum extent.
According to the traditional mountain torrent disaster early warning, critical rainfall in early warning indexes is determined according to hydrological parameters and geographical characteristics of a drainage basin, and a mountain torrent disaster early warning system monitors the current rainfall through a rainfall station and determines whether to send out early warning information or not by comparing with the critical rainfall. In general, the critical rainfall is above the heavy rain level, and the river flow is increased by tens of times rapidly when an alarm occurs.
One such scenario that currently occurs is: many small watersheds have reduced little to medium rain upstream, and the resulting rain volume and flow changes are insufficient to trigger the alarm of the flood warning system and therefore also cause no vigilance in the mid-downstream area. When the instantaneous flow suddenly rises by more than one time, the torrential flood is caused to burst, and tourists in the riverway cannot prevent the torrential flood to cause injuries and deaths.
The invention content is as follows:
the technical problems to be solved by the invention are as follows: the flood forecasting method based on the multiple ratio algorithm is provided to solve the problems that in the prior art, the mountain torrent disaster early warning monitors the current rainfall according to a rainfall station, and whether early warning information is sent out or not is determined compared with the critical rainfall; as small to medium rain drops at the upper reaches of a plurality of small watersheds, the generated rainfall and flow change are not enough to trigger the alarm of the flood early warning system, when the instantaneous flow suddenly rises by more than one time, the problems of torrential flood burst, untimely prevention of tourists in a river channel, casualties and the like are caused.
The technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating a current flow value of a target small watershed;
step 2, calculating a flow value in an upstream forecast period according to measured grid point rainfall data;
step 3, comparing the current flow value of the target small basin with the flow value in the forecast period;
and 4, sending out early warning information through a flood control forecasting system when the flow value in the forecast period exceeds the current flow value of the target small watershed by more than one time.
The flood control forecasting system sends out early warning information, and the early warning information is sent through WeChat, the vehicle-mounted terminal, the mobile terminal and broadcasting.
Step 1-step 4 are circularly carried out.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
according to the method, the flow value in the forecast period is calculated according to the actual measurement data of the upstream current lattice point rainfall, the actual measurement data is compared with the current flow of the target area in real time, when the increase amplitude of the flow value in the forecast period is more than one time larger than the current flow value of the target area, an alarm is given immediately, the problem that in the prior art, mountain torrent disaster early warning monitors the current rainfall according to a rainfall station, and whether early warning information is given or not is determined compared with the critical rainfall is solved; as small to medium rain drops at the upper reaches of a plurality of small watersheds, the generated rainfall and flow change are not enough to trigger the alarm of the flood early warning system, when the instantaneous flow suddenly rises by more than one time, the problems of torrential flood burst, untimely prevention of tourists in a river channel, casualties and the like are caused.
The specific implementation mode is as follows:
a flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating a current flow value of a target small watershed;
step 2, calculating a flow value in an upstream forecast period according to actually measured lattice point rainfall data;
step 3, comparing the current flow value of the target small basin with the flow value in the forecast period;
and 4, judging that flood which can cause disasters can occur in the forecast period when the flow value in the forecast period exceeds the current flow value of the target small watershed by more than one time, and sending early warning information by various means, such as WeChat small programs, APP (application) and the like through a flood control forecast system.
The flood control forecasting system sends out early warning information, and the early warning information is sent through WeChat, the vehicle-mounted terminal, the mobile terminal and broadcasting.
Step 1-step 4 are circularly carried out. The cycle time is determined according to the actual situation on site, and is generally cycled between 10 minutes and 60 minutes.
Claims (3)
1. A flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm comprises the following steps:
step 1, calculating a current flow value of a target small watershed;
step 2, calculating a flow value in an upstream forecast period according to actually measured lattice point rainfall data;
step 3, comparing the current flow value of the target small basin with the flow value in the forecast period;
and 4, sending out early warning information through a flood control forecasting system when the flow value in the forecast period exceeds the current flow value of the target small watershed by more than one time.
2. A flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm, according to claim 1, characterized in that: the flood control forecasting system sends out early warning information, and the early warning information is sent through WeChat, the vehicle-mounted terminal, the mobile terminal and broadcasting.
3. A flood forecasting method based on a multiple ratio algorithm, as claimed in claim 1, wherein: step 1-step 4 are circularly carried out.
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| CN108171003A CN108171003A (en) | 2018-06-15 |
| CN108171003B true CN108171003B (en) | 2022-06-07 |
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| CN103400337A (en) * | 2013-08-02 | 2013-11-20 | 贵州东方世纪科技有限责任公司 | Method for determining early-warning index of mountain torrent disaster in small watershed |
| CN105512767A (en) * | 2015-12-15 | 2016-04-20 | 武汉大学 | Flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods |
| CN105929466A (en) * | 2016-04-14 | 2016-09-07 | 国家电网公司 | Flood forecast method dealing with influence on human activities |
| CN107423546A (en) * | 2017-04-18 | 2017-12-01 | 武汉大学 | Multivariable hydrological uncertainty processing method based on Copula functions |
Family Cites Families (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN105466500A (en) * | 2015-12-18 | 2016-04-06 | 合肥市恒昌自动化控制有限责任公司 | Dam open channel flow intelligent detection method |
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Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103400337A (en) * | 2013-08-02 | 2013-11-20 | 贵州东方世纪科技有限责任公司 | Method for determining early-warning index of mountain torrent disaster in small watershed |
| CN105512767A (en) * | 2015-12-15 | 2016-04-20 | 武汉大学 | Flood forecasting method of multiple forecast periods |
| CN105929466A (en) * | 2016-04-14 | 2016-09-07 | 国家电网公司 | Flood forecast method dealing with influence on human activities |
| CN107423546A (en) * | 2017-04-18 | 2017-12-01 | 武汉大学 | Multivariable hydrological uncertainty processing method based on Copula functions |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
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| "利用天气雷达观测资料预报小流域流量";张亚萍，程明虎，刘德;《气象学报》;20121231;第562-575页 * |
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Denomination of invention: A Flood Forecasting Method Based on Multiplication Algorithm Effective date of registration: 20230911 Granted publication date: 20220607 Pledgee: Guiyang Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd. science and technology sub branch Pledgor: GUIZHOU EAST CENTURY TECHNOLOGY Co.,Ltd. Registration number: Y2023520000048 |