CN103248051A - Method for evaluating grid operation safety risk caused by wind farm power fluctuation - Google Patents

Method for evaluating grid operation safety risk caused by wind farm power fluctuation Download PDF

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CN103248051A
CN103248051A CN2013101986780A CN201310198678A CN103248051A CN 103248051 A CN103248051 A CN 103248051A CN 2013101986780 A CN2013101986780 A CN 2013101986780A CN 201310198678 A CN201310198678 A CN 201310198678A CN 103248051 A CN103248051 A CN 103248051A
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wind energy
energy turbine
turbine set
fluctuation
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CN103248051B (en
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李碧君
徐泰山
刘强
罗剑波
尹玉君
刘韶峰
王昊昊
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Nari Technology Co Ltd
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Nanjing NARI Group Corp
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating a grid operation safety risk caused by wind farm power fluctuation, belonging to the technical field of power systems and power system automation. According to actually measured and ultra-short-term predication information of wind farm power, aiming at adjacent periods, a wind farm power fluctuation state is recognized and is judged to be a stable fluctuation state or a sharp fluctuation state, the result that safety stability margin cannot meet the requirement is used as a harm consequence, and a grid operation safety risk evaluation method is selected according to the wind farm power fluctuation state. The method for evaluating the grid operation safety risk caused by the wind farm power fluctuation has the advantages that the grid operation safety risk caused by the wind farm power fluctuation can be comprehensively evaluated, decision-making bases are provided for reducing the adverse impact caused by wind power fluctuation to operation safety, and the safe and reliable utilization of large-scale wind power is facilitated.

Description

A kind ofly assess the method that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influences the safe operation of electric network risk
Technical field
The invention belongs to the Power System and its Automation technical field, more precisely, the present invention relates to a kind of method that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influences the safe operation of electric network risk of assessing.
Background technology
The wave characteristic of wind power is that it is to inserting the basic reason that power network safety operation exerts an influence.When the grid connected wind power installed capacity rises to certain scale, the fluctuation that wind power can not be controlled will work the mischief to power network safety operation.The influence of assessment wind-powered electricity generation output-power fluctuation inserts the risk of power network safety operation, thereby takes prevention and control measure targetedly, is to guarantee reliably the dissolve basis of wind-powered electricity generation of power grid security.
The basic demand of operation of power networks that mandatory power industry standard " power system safety and stability guide rule " is clear and definite, standard electric power system bear the safety and stability standard of disturbance ability, provide principle and foundation for carrying out the electricity net safety stable analytical work.Safety on line stability analysis technology is used widely, the power system operating mode that provides according to EMS, to the forecast failure of appointment, carry out the analytical calculation of safety and stability evaluation and control decision, for controlling electrical network, the management and running personnel provide the important techniques support.The safety on line stability analysis that realizes at present is based on deterministic theory, does not take into account the wind power fluctuation and causes the uncertainty of power system operating mode appearance and wind power to fluctuate to the impact of electrical network.
Wind-powered electricity generation unit output precision of prediction reaches certain level, in conjunction with load prediction, conventional unit generation plan and maintenance scheduling, can form following constantly, have the power system operating mode of probability characteristics, can predict wind power fluctuation situation.
Therefore, assessment wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influences the safe operation of electric network risk, thereby the technical conditions of evading the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation and influence the safe operation of electric network risk of adopting an effective measure possess.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is: a kind of method that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influences the safe operation of electric network risk of assessing is provided, influence the safe operation of electric network decision in the face of risk and establish technical foundation for carrying out the power fluctuation of prevention and control wind energy turbine set targetedly, thereby support the big power grid security large-scale wind power of reliably dissolving.
The present invention is according to the actual measurement of wind energy turbine set power and ultrashort phase information of forecasting, and at the adjacent period, identification wind energy turbine set power fluctuation state is judged as steady fluctuation status or rapid fluctuation state.Can not meet the demands as the harm consequence with safety and stability nargin, according to wind energy turbine set power fluctuation state, choose the appraisal procedure of safe operation of electric network risk.If the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation is in steady fluctuation status in the electrical network, then only carry out the safe operation of electric network risk assessment after wind power fluctuates steadily; If the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation is in the rapid fluctuation state in the electrical network, then carry out the safe operation of electric network risk assessment after the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power influences safe operation of electric network risk assessment and wind power fluctuation steadily.Thus, realize the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influence comprehensive assessment of safe operation of electric network risk, for reduction wind energy turbine set power fluctuation provides decision-making foundation to the harmful effect of operation of power networks.
Specifically, the present invention adopts following technical scheme to realize, comprises the following steps:
1) compile power prediction information of ultrashort phase of the wind energy turbine set with probability characteristics in the control centre, and operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information.
2) determine to assess the initial moment of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation after, choose from this moment, continuous two t constantly iAnd t I+1, at each wind energy turbine set, according to the wind power information of actual measurement/prediction, judge the wind power fluctuation status.If wind energy turbine set is in power rapid fluctuation state in the electrical network, then carry out step 3).If the wind energy turbine set in the electrical network all is in the mild fluctuation status of power, then earlier the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power is influenced safe operation of electric network value-at-risk R TEBe set to 0, change step 5) then.
The method of judging the wind power fluctuation status is as follows:
(1) the wind power P in two moment of comparison iAnd P I+1, with | P I-P I+1| as criterion, determine the wind energy turbine set of wind power rapid fluctuation greater than threshold value ThP.
For the wind energy turbine set of installed capacity less than 500MW, the ThP value is 25MW; For the wind energy turbine set of installed capacity above 500MW, ThP can be taken as P Max* 5%, P wherein MaxIt is the installed capacity of wind energy turbine set.
(2) if having the wind power rapid fluctuation of 1 wind energy turbine set at least, then determine wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation state in the electrical network; Otherwise, determine the mild fluctuation status of wind energy turbine set power in the electrical network.
3) with the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power as disturbance, analysis and evaluation electricity net safety stable nargin.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) according to operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information, in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power prediction information, forms the preceding power system operating mode of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation.
(2) at each wind energy turbine set of power rapid fluctuation, according to wind power P iAnd P I+1, with (P I+1-P i) be Power Output for Wind Power Field sudden change amount, form the forecast failure of each wind energy turbine set power fluctuation respectively.
(3) to each forecast failure, based on time-domain-simulation and the safety and stability quantitative analysis of the operating characteristics of considering security stabilization control device/system and low-frequency low-voltage load shedding etc. second, three lines of defence device, calculate transient state and dynamic security stability margin.
4) rapid fluctuation of analytical calculation wind energy turbine set power influences the value-at-risk of safe operation of electric network.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) forecast failure that can not meet the demands at safety and stability nargin is with actual safety and stability nargin η J rWith expectation safety and stability nargin η J eDeviation, calculating by formula (1) influences consequence;
SJ=|ηJ r-ηJ e| （1）
(2) probability P that changes in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power mInformation of forecasting calculates the value-at-risk of wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation by formula (2).
RJ=P m*SJ （2）
(3) influence the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk by wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation in formula (3) the statistics electrical network.
RJ TE = Σ i = 1 N RJ i - - - ( 3 )
Wherein, N is the forecast failure quantity number that can not meet the demands as safety and stability nargin in the forecast failure with the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power.
5) the electricity net safety stable nargin of operational mode after the fluctuation steadily of assessment wind power.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) according to operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information, in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power prediction information, power system operating mode and probabilistic information behind the formation wind energy turbine set power fluctuation, and analytical calculation ground state margin of safety.
(2) according to " power system safety and stability guide rule ", form forecast failure collection.
(3) to each forecast failure, the operating characteristics of considering security stabilization control device/system and low-frequency low-voltage load shedding etc. second, three lines of defence device is carried out time-domain-simulation, based on the safety and stability quantitative analysis, calculates static state, transient state and dynamic security stability margin.
6) calculate the steadily safe operation of electric network value-at-risk of back operational mode of wind power fluctuation.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) ground state and the forecast failure that can not meet the demands at safety and stability nargin is with actual safety and stability nargin η P rWith expectation safety and stability nargin η P eDeviation, calculate the influence fruit by formula (4).
SP=|ηP r-ηP e| （4）
(2) form the probability P of each forecast failure according to the historical failure statistics F, in conjunction with the probability P of wind energy turbine set power variation WMInformation of forecasting calculates the value-at-risk of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation after steadily by formula (5).
RP=P WM*P F*SP （5）
If the ground state margin of safety can not meet the demands, corresponding P FBe taken as 1.
(3) by the steady back of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation safe operation of electric network value-at-risk in formula (6) the statistics electrical network.
RP TS = Σ i = 1 M R i - - - ( 6 )
Wherein M is the forecast failure number that safety and stability nargin can not meet the demands, and M is that the forecast failure number adds 1 if the ground state margin of safety can not meet the demands.
7) statistics wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influences the value-at-risk of safe operation of electric network, the sector-style of going forward side by side danger early warning.
The rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power is influenced safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP TEWith 6) the steady back safe operation of electric network value-at-risk accumulative total RP of the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation that obtains TS, obtain the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk R that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation causes TIf R TSurpass risk threshold value RTh, then carry out the early warning that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation causes the safe operation of electric network risk.
The method to set up of risk threshold value RTh is as follows:
RTh=CSTh*NTh*RC （7）
Wherein CSTh is the absolute value of the deviation of acceptable actual safety and stability nargin and expectation safety and stability nargin; NTh is acceptable actual safety and stability nargin and expectation safety and stability nargin number of elements devious; RC is the coefficient that embodies the risk-bearing degree, if can't stand risk fully then be 0, if fully can risk-bearing then be 1.0.
Beneficial effect of the present invention is as follows: the assessment wind energy turbine set power fluctuation that the present invention proposes influences the method for safe operation of electric network risk, influence the risk of power network safety operation under safe operation of electric network risk and the steady back of the wind-powered electricity generation fluctuation operational mode by comprehensive assessment wind power wave process, can the comprehensive assessment wind power safe operation of electric network risk that causes of fluctuation, the adverse effect that security of operation is caused for the fluctuation of reduction wind-powered electricity generation provides decision-making foundation, thereby promotes the safe and reliable large-scale wind power of dissolving.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the inventive method.
Embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawings 1 and in conjunction with example the present invention is described in further detail.
The step of describing among Fig. 11 is to compile Back ground Information in control centre, comprises power prediction information of ultrashort phase of the wind energy turbine set with probability characteristics, and operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information.
The step of describing among Fig. 12 is after determining to assess the initial moment of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation, chooses two moment t from this moment, continuous iAnd t I+1, according to the wind power information of actual measurement/prediction, judge wind energy turbine set power fluctuation state in the electrical network.
If wind energy turbine set is in power rapid fluctuation state in the electrical network, then carry out step 3).If the wind energy turbine set in the electrical network all is in the mild fluctuation status of power, then earlier the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power is influenced safe operation of electric network value-at-risk R TEBe set to 0, change step 5) then.
The method of judging wind energy turbine set power fluctuation state in the electrical network is as follows:
(1) the wind power P in two moment of comparison iAnd P I+1, with | P i-P I+1| as criterion, determine the wind energy turbine set of wind power rapid fluctuation greater than threshold value.
For the wind energy turbine set of installed capacity less than 500MW, the ThP value is 25MW; For the wind energy turbine set of installed capacity above 500MW, ThP can be taken as P Max* 5%, P wherein MaxIt is the installed capacity of wind energy turbine set.
(2) if having the wind power rapid fluctuation of 1 wind energy turbine set at least, then determine wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation state in these two period electrical networks; Otherwise, determine the mild fluctuation status of wind energy turbine set power in these two period electrical networks.
The step of describing among Fig. 13 be with the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power as disturbance, analysis and evaluation electricity net safety stable nargin.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) according to operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information, in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power prediction information, forms the preceding power system operating mode of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation.If the influence of wind power fluctuation under the assessment current state then based on the operation real measured data, forms the preceding power system operating mode of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation; If the following influence of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation constantly of assessment, then according to operation of power networks load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information, in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power prediction information, form the preceding power system operating mode of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation.
(2) at each wind energy turbine set of power rapid fluctuation, according to wind power P iAnd P I+1, with (P I+1-P i) be Power Output for Wind Power Field sudden change amount, form the forecast failure of each wind energy turbine set power fluctuation respectively.
(3) to each forecast failure, based on time-domain-simulation and the safety and stability quantitative analysis of the operating characteristics of considering security stabilization control device/system and low-frequency low-voltage load shedding etc. second, three lines of defence device, calculate transient state and dynamic security stability margin.
The step of describing among Fig. 14 is, can not meet the demands as the harm consequence with safety and stability nargin, and the rapid fluctuation of analytical calculation wind energy turbine set power influences the value-at-risk of safe operation of electric network.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) based on the analysis result of step 3), the forecast failure that can not meet the demands at safety and stability nargin is with actual safety and stability nargin η J rWith expectation safety and stability nargin η J eDeviation, calculating by formula (1) influences consequence;
SJ=|ηJ r-ηJ e| （1）
(2) probability P that changes in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power mInformation of forecasting calculates the value-at-risk of wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation by formula (2).P wherein mBe that prediction wind energy turbine set power is by P iBe changed to P I+1Probability.
RJ=P m*SJ （2）
(3) influence the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk by wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation in formula (3) the statistics electrical network.
RJ TE = Σ i = 1 N RJ i - - - ( 3 )
Wherein, N is the forecast failure quantity number that can not meet the demands as safety and stability nargin in the forecast failure with the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power.
The step of describing among Fig. 15 is that the fluctuation of assessment wind power is the electricity net safety stable nargin of back operational mode steadily.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) according to operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information, in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power prediction information, power system operating mode and probabilistic information behind the formation wind energy turbine set power fluctuation, and analytical calculation ground state margin of safety.The state of the power system operating mode behind the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation is that the power of wind energy turbine set is the P of prediction I+1, and no longer change.
(2) according to the three level security stability criterions of " power system safety and stability guide rule ", form forecast failure collection.
(3) to each forecast failure, the operating characteristics of considering security stabilization control device/system and low-frequency low-voltage load shedding etc. second, three lines of defence device is carried out time-domain-simulation, based on the safety and stability quantitative analysis, calculates static state, transient state and dynamic security stability margin.
The step of describing among Fig. 16 is that the fluctuation of analytical calculation wind power is the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk of back operational mode steadily.Implementation method is as follows:
(1) ground state and the forecast failure that can not meet the demands at safety and stability nargin is with actual safety and stability nargin η P rWith expectation safety and stability nargin η P eDeviation, calculating by formula (4) influences consequence.The implication that ground state safety and stability nargin can not meet the demands is that the power system operating mode at behind the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation of step 5) formation forecast failure does not take place just has safety problem.
SP=|ηP r-ηP e| （4）
(2) form the probability P of each forecast failure according to the historical failure statistics F, in conjunction with the probability P of wind energy turbine set power variation WMInformation of forecasting calculates the value-at-risk of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation after steadily by formula (5).
RP=P WM*P F*SP （5）
P WMValue is that the power of the wind energy turbine set of power amplitude of variation maximum in the electrical network is by P iBe changed to P I+1Probability; If the ground state margin of safety can not meet the demands, corresponding P FBe taken as 1.
(3) by the steady back of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation safe operation of electric network value-at-risk in formula (6) the statistics electrical network.
RP TS = Σ i = 1 N RP i - - - ( 6 )
Wherein M is the forecast failure number that safety and stability nargin can not meet the demands, and M is that the forecast failure number adds 1 if the ground state margin of safety can not meet the demands.
The step of describing among Fig. 17 is that statistics wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influences the value-at-risk of safe operation of electric network, the sector-style of going forward side by side danger early warning.
The rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power is influenced safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP TEThe wind energy turbine set power fluctuation that obtains with step 6) is back safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP steadily TSAccumulative total obtains the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk R that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation causes TIf R TSurpass risk threshold value RTh, then carry out the early warning that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation causes the safe operation of electric network risk.
The method to set up of risk threshold value RTh is as follows:
RTh=CSTh*NTh*RC （7）
Wherein CSTh is the absolute value of the deviation of acceptable actual safety and stability nargin and expectation safety and stability nargin; NTh is acceptable actual safety and stability nargin and expectation safety and stability nargin number of elements devious; RC is the coefficient that embodies the risk-bearing degree, if can't stand risk fully then be 0, if fully can risk-bearing then be 1.0.
Though the present invention is with preferred embodiment openly as above, embodiment be not limit of the present invention.Without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, any equivalence of doing changes or retouching, belongs to the present invention's protection range equally.Therefore protection scope of the present invention should be standard with the application's the content that claim was defined.

Claims (2)

1. assess the method that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation influences the safe operation of electric network risk for one kind, it is characterized in that, comprise the steps:
1) compiles power prediction information of ultrashort phase of the wind energy turbine set with probability characteristics and operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information in the control centre;
2) at first determine to assess the initial moment of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation, and choose two moment t from this moment, continuous iAnd t I+1Then at each wind energy turbine set, according to the wind power information of actual measurement, prediction, relatively the wind power P in two moment iAnd P I+1, if certain wind energy turbine set | P i-P I+1| greater than the wind power fluctuation threshold value that sets in advance, then determine this wind energy turbine set wind power rapid fluctuation;
If have the wind power rapid fluctuation of 1 wind energy turbine set at least, determine that then wind energy turbine set is in power rapid fluctuation state in the electrical network; Otherwise, determine that wind energy turbine set is in the mild fluctuation status of power in the electrical network;
If wind energy turbine set is in power rapid fluctuation state in the electrical network, then carry out step 3); If the wind energy turbine set in the electrical network is in the mild fluctuation status of power, then earlier the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power is influenced safe operation of electric network value-at-risk R TEBe set to 0, change step 5) then;
3) at first, according to operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information, in conjunction with the actual measurement of wind energy turbine set power, information of forecasting, form the preceding power system operating mode of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation;
Then, at each wind energy turbine set of wind power rapid fluctuation, according to wind power P iAnd P I+1, with (P I+1-P i) be Power Output for Wind Power Field sudden change amount, form the forecast failure of each wind energy turbine set power fluctuation respectively; To each forecast failure, based on time-domain-simulation and safety and stability quantitative analysis, calculate transient state and dynamic security stability margin again;
4) at first, the forecast failure that can not meet the demands at safety and stability nargin is with actual safety and stability nargin η J rWith expectation safety and stability nargin η J eDeviation, calculating by formula (1) influences consequence SJ; Then, the probability P that changes in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power mInformation of forecasting calculates the value-at-risk RJ of wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation by formula (2); Influence safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RJ by wind energy turbine set power rapid fluctuation in formula (3) the statistics electrical network again TE:
SJ=|ηJ r-ηJ e| （1）
RJ=P m*SJ （2）
RJ TE = Σ i = 1 N RJ i - - - ( 3 )
Wherein, N is the forecast failure quantity number that can not meet the demands as safety and stability nargin in the forecast failure with the rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power;
5) at first, according to operation of power networks real measured data, load prediction information, conventional unit generation plan information and maintenance scheduling information, in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power prediction information, power system operating mode and probabilistic information behind the formation wind energy turbine set power fluctuation, and calculate the ground state margin of safety; Then, form forecast failure collection according to " power system safety and stability guide rule ", again to ground state and each forecast failure, based on the safety and stability quantitative analysis, calculate static state, transient state and dynamic security stability margin;
6) at first, ground state and the forecast failure that can not meet the demands at safety and stability nargin are with actual safety and stability nargin η P rWith expectation safety and stability nargin η P eDeviation, calculating by formula (4) influences consequence SP; Then, the probability P that changes in conjunction with wind energy turbine set power WMInformation of forecasting and forecast failure probability P F, calculate the value-at-risk RP of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation after steadily by formula (5); Again by the steady back of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP in formula (6) the statistics electrical network TS:
SP=|ηP r-ηP e| （4）
RP=P WM*P F*SP （5）
RP TS = Σ i = 1 m RP i - - - ( 6 )
Wherein, M is the forecast failure number that safety and stability nargin can not meet the demands, and M is that the forecast failure number adds 1 if the ground state margin of safety can not meet the demands; If the ground state margin of safety can not meet the demands, the forecast failure probability P of ground state then FBe taken as 1;
7) rapid fluctuation of wind energy turbine set power is influenced safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RJ TEWith the steady back of wind energy turbine set power fluctuation safe operation of electric network value-at-risk RP TSAccumulative total obtains the safe operation of electric network value-at-risk R that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation causes TIf R TSurpass the risk threshold value RTh that sets in advance, then carry out the early warning that the wind energy turbine set power fluctuation causes the safe operation of electric network risk.
2. assessment wind energy turbine set power fluctuation according to claim 1 influences the method for safe operation of electric network risk, it is characterized in that, the method to set up of risk threshold value RTh is as follows in the described step 7):
RTh=CSTh*NTh*RC
Wherein, CSTh is the absolute value of the deviation of acceptable actual safety and stability nargin and expectation safety and stability nargin; NTh is acceptable actual safety and stability nargin and expectation safety and stability nargin number of elements devious; RC is risk-bearing degree coefficient, if can't stand risk fully then be 0, if fully can risk-bearing then be 1.0.
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